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Reflections on the Greek crisis and the level of employment

by Eduardo Petazze
29/06/15
Greece has a real growth potential of 30%. A traditional adjustment program, it is pointless to support growth and to honor financial commitments.
The following table summarizes the financial situation of the Greek government, the gross value added generated by the economy and employment data in the last four years.
Million euro

2011

Total economy
Gross domestic product at market prices
Gross national income at market prices
Employed (000) persons
General government
Net lending (+) /net borrowing (-)
Interest, payable
Government consolidated gross debt
Government consolidated gross debt at face value
Currency and deposits
Debt securities
Loans
Trade credits and advances - liabilities
Central government
Net lending (+) /net borrowing (-)
Consolidated gross debt
Per employed persons (euro per person)
GDP
Government consolidated gross debt
Central government consolidated gross debt

2012

2013

2014

207,752
202,142
4,043.6

194,204
195,430
3,687.3

182,438
182,379
3,507.8

179,081
178,868
3,527.0

-21,221
15,067
355,977

-16,871
9,743
304,714

-22,498
7,276
319,178

-6,356
6,986
317,094

820
251,799
103,358
2,772

774
93,499
210,441
3,120

819
79,206
239,153
1,512

995
70,850
245,249
1,416

-19,273
378,648

-15,938
312,149

-26,624
326,912

-7,836
326,317

51,378
88,035
93,641

52,668
82,639
84,655

52,009
90,990
93,194

50,774
89,904
92,519

The level of activity and occupation of the Greeks has a real growth potential of around 30%, about 25 percentage points higher than the level of activity and occupation
achieved in 2008.

Population 15~74
years old
8,464.5
8,474.3
8,478.2
8,480.9
8,470.2
8,432.5
8,367.2
8,306.4
8,246.5
8,183.7
8,134.8
8,082.7
8,030.1
Latest data
Own estimate
Population 15~74
years old
8,158.6
8,155.1
8,150.4
8,145.8
8,141.3
8,136.9
8,132.5
8,128.1
8,123.8
8,119.4
8,115.1
8,110.7
8,106.0
8,102.4
8,098.8
8,094.4
8,089.8
8,085.4
8,080.4
8,075.8
8,071.6
8,067.3
8,062.8
8,058.2
Latest data
Own estimate

(000)
persons
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

(000)
persons
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15

Employed
4,381.8
4,435.7
4,518.5
4,554.5
4,599.4
4,545.2
4,378.5
4,043.6
3,687.3
3,507.8
3,527.0
3,552.4
3,576.0

Greece - Employed, Unemployed, for persons 15 - 74 years old


Unadjusted estimates
Seasonally adjusted estimates
Unemployed Inactives Activity Unemployment Employed Unemployed Inactives
Activity
Unemployment
519.9
3,562.9 57.91%
10.61%
4,382.2
518.7
3,563.6
57.90%
10.58%
493.4
3,545.1 58.17%
10.01%
4,434.8
494.2
3,545.3
58.16%
10.03%
448.2
3,511.5 58.58%
9.02%
4,520.7
446.6
3,510.8
58.59%
8.99%
418.3
3,508.0 58.64%
8.41%
4,553.5
417.9
3,509.5
58.62%
8.41%
387.9
3,482.9 58.88%
7.78%
4,598.4
388.7
3,483.0
58.88%
7.79%
484.7
3,402.6 59.65%
9.64%
4,544.2
485.1
3,403.2
59.64%
9.64%
639.4
3,349.4 59.97%
12.74%
4,379.8
638.2
3,349.2
59.97%
12.72%
881.8
3,381.0 59.30%
17.90%
4,045.5
881.7
3,379.3
59.32%
17.89%
1,195.1
3,364.1 59.21%
24.48%
3,686.1
1,199.5
3,360.9
59.24%
24.55%
1,330.3
3,345.5 59.12%
27.50%
3,507.7
1,331.6
3,344.4
59.13%
27.52%
1,269.6
3,338.2 58.96%
26.47%
3,528.1
1,275.3
3,331.5
59.05%
26.55%
1,181.7
3,348.7 58.57%
24.96%
3,552.4
1,181.7
3,348.7
58.57%
24.96%
1,094.2
3,360.0 58.16%
23.43%
3,576.0
1,094.2
3,360.0
58.16%
23.43%

Employed
3,488.8
3,442.9
3,495.6
3,478.9
3,519.7
3,562.5
3,628.5
3,546.3
3,582.7
3,597.7
3,497.1
3,483.5
3,550.5
3,516.7
3,438.1
3,518.3
3,534.7
3,569.3
3,636.0
3,580.0
3,602.2
3,626.3
3,533.8
3,523.4

Unadjusted estimates
Seasonally adjusted estimates
Unemployed Inactives Activity Unemployment Employed Unemployed Inactives
Activity
Unemployment
1,316.7
3,353.1 58.90%
27.40%
3,496.5
1,308.5
3,354.2
58.90%
27.23%
1,366.7
3,345.4 58.98%
28.42%
3,493.3
1,303.1
3,358.2
58.81%
27.17%
1,343.4
3,311.3 59.37%
27.76%
3,504.8
1,290.9
3,354.5
58.84%
26.92%
1,299.8
3,367.1 58.66%
27.20%
3,496.5
1,296.6
3,352.6
58.84%
27.05%
1,307.2
3,314.4 59.29%
27.08%
3,523.3
1,301.1
3,317.0
59.26%
26.97%
1,249.2
3,325.2 59.13%
25.96%
3,546.8
1,288.4
3,301.7
59.42%
26.65%
1,207.3
3,296.8 59.46%
24.97%
3,558.9
1,272.1
3,301.6
59.40%
26.33%
1,203.8
3,378.1 58.44%
25.34%
3,549.0
1,261.1
3,317.8
59.18%
26.22%
1,219.1
3,322.0 59.11%
25.39%
3,551.9
1,256.5
3,315.3
59.19%
26.13%
1,219.8
3,301.9 59.33%
25.32%
3,541.7
1,252.2
3,325.4
59.04%
26.12%
1,224.4
3,393.5 58.18%
25.93%
3,536.7
1,238.3
3,340.2
58.84%
25.93%
1,277.3
3,350.0 58.70%
26.83%
3,537.2
1,234.2
3,339.2
58.83%
25.87%
1,248.5
3,307.0 59.20%
26.01%
3,534.3
1,225.0
3,346.8
58.71%
25.74%
1,225.9
3,359.8 58.53%
25.85%
3,534.9
1,215.8
3,351.6
58.63%
25.59%
1,299.4
3,361.2 58.50%
27.43%
3,518.9
1,211.5
3,368.4
58.41%
25.61%
1,215.0
3,361.1 58.48%
25.67%
3,512.6
1,200.3
3,381.5
58.22%
25.47%
1,206.5
3,348.6 58.61%
25.45%
3,530.8
1,204.1
3,354.9
58.53%
25.43%
1,157.3
3,358.8 58.46%
24.48%
3,555.7
1,198.6
3,331.1
58.80%
25.21%
1,129.1
3,315.3 58.97%
23.70%
3,578.2
1,178.9
3,323.3
58.87%
24.78%
1,127.3
3,368.6 58.29%
23.95%
3,573.4
1,158.6
3,343.9
58.59%
24.48%
1,127.1
3,342.3 58.59%
23.83%
3,582.1
1,155.1
3,334.4
58.69%
24.38%
1,129.0
3,312.0 58.94%
23.74%
3,580.9
1,150.7
3,335.7
58.65%
24.32%
1,146.6
3,382.3 58.05%
24.50%
3,570.6
1,133.6
3,358.6
58.34%
24.10%
1,168.0
3,366.9 58.22%
24.90%
3,556.8
1,147.9
3,353.6
58.38%
24.40%

An unconventional agreement between the international financial community and the Greek government could facilitate a program primarily to achieve in the short term the
level of potential economic growth and, secondly, fill in the greatest extent possible orderly and genuine payment to creditors, based on the higher level of economic activity
flow is reached.
Due to the level of the Greek government debt and structural issues affecting the activity of Greece, a traditional adjustment program (as he has been in force), it is a waste of
time and necessarily leads to frustration for both parties and failure to sustainability over time.

Addendum - Base Case with external support to sustainable development


The following table compares the performance of the Greek economy in the period 2011 / 2014 with its hypothetical potential based on the following premises:
An annual level of gross fixed capital formation similar to 2007 or 2008 level,
with emphasis on infrastructure and tourism,
mainly based on direct investments from the EA central countries.
Creating 1.1 million new jobs, mostly generated in the private sector
Reducing employers' social contributions by about four percentage points from the current level
The growth of wages and salaries of the population to real levels similar the years 2010 or 2011
The limitation in the tax rate on domestic / imported products
Limiting subsidies to the level of 2014
The greatest imbalance generated in the current account of the balance of payments is more than offset by the growth of foreign direct investment
Current prices, million euro NSA
Gross Value Added
Taxes less subsidies on products
Gross domestic product at market prices
Household and NPISH final consumption expenditure
Final consumption expenditure of households
Final consumption expenditure of NPISH
Final consumption expenditure of general government
Individual consumption expenditure of general government
Collective consumption expenditure of general government
Gross capital formation
Gross fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods
Exports of services
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods
Imports of services
GDP
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Employers' social contributions
Operating surplus and mixed income, gross
Taxes on production and imports
Subsidies
Taxes on production and imports less subsidies
memo:
Employed (000) persons
Wages and salaries per capita
Employers' social contributions / Wages and salaries
Operating surplus and mixed income / GDP
Taxes on production and imports / (GVA + Imports of Goods)
Subsidies / GVA

2011
182,302.4
25,449.4
207,751.9
145,063.9
140,658.1
4,405.8
44,085.5
22,484.3
21,601.0
32,833.1
31,997.2
836.1
52,879.6
26,825.6
26,054.1
67,110.3
52,933.8
14,176.6
207,751.9
73,465.9
56,758.8
16,707.1
110,749.6
27,550.8
4,014.3
23,536.4

2012
171,215.6
22,988.1
194,203.7
134,702.0
130,196.6
4,505.6
41,089.0
19,910.1
21,179.0
27,120.2
22,743.5
4,376.5
54,838.5
29,896.6
24,941.9
63,546.0
51,021.1
12,525.1
194,203.7
66,370.9
50,282.0
16,088.8
106,204.9
25,043.7
3,415.8
21,627.9

2013
160,544.5
21,893.7
182,438.3
129,908.3
125,447.8
4,460.5
36,472.3
17,394.4
19,078.0
21,465.7
20,452.2
1,013.5
55,147.3
30,026.1
25,121.3
60,555.5
49,412.6
11,142.8
182,438.3
59,305.7
44,943.2
14,362.4
102,202.0
24,115.1
3,184.6
20,930.6

2014
157,212.5
21,868.1
179,080.6
128,882.5
124,456.9
4,425.4
35,510.4
15,999.7
19,510.7
18,937.9
20,721.5
-1,783.6
59,024.4
31,011.0
28,013.4
63,274.4
51,880.6
11,393.8
179,080.6
59,886.8
45,543.9
14,342.9
95,038.2
27,190.8
3,034.9
24,155.6

4,043.6
14,037
29.44%
53.31%
11.71%
2.20%

3,687.3
13,637
32.00%
54.69%
11.27%
2.00%

3,507.8
12,812
31.96%
56.02%
11.49%
1.98%

3,527.0
12,913
31.49%
53.07%
13.00%
1.93%

base case
Base / 2014
214,500.0
36.44%
28,600.0
30.78%
243,100.0
35.75%
166,800.0
29.42%
162,300.0
30.41%
4,500.0
1.69%
40,000.0
12.64%
19,100.0
19.38%
20,900.0
7.12%
62,400.0
229.50%
62,400.0
201.14%
0.0
-100.00%
61,700.0
4.53%
31,700.0
2.22%
30,000.0
7.09%
87,800.0
38.76%
73,000.0
40.71%
14,800.0
29.90%
243,100.0
35.75%
86,000.0
43.60%
67,300.0
47.77%
18,700.0
30.38%
131,300.0
38.15%
28,800.0
5.92%
3,000.0
-1.15%
25,800.0
6.81%
4,607.2
14,608
27.79%
54.01%
10.02%
1.40%

30.62%
13.13%