Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
6/30/2015
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Northern American Spending Intentions Rise According to Nielsen ......................................................... 534
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 535
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Confidence Collapses To Post-Lehman Lows ........................................................................ 535
GLOBAL SENTIMENT The State Of Economic 'Misery' Around The World ........................................................................................... 537
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Highest Level Since 2007 ................................................................................................................................ 541
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent ........................................................................................................................................................ 542
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent ........................................................................................................................................................ 544
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Nielsens Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions ........................................................ 545
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 556
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 556
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Rising Consumer Prices are Hurting Global Demand ........................................................................... 556
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Global Home Prices Are Rolling Over ..................................................................................................... 556
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Real Domestic Demand US, Japan & EU .............................................................................................. 557
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 558
GLOBAL GROWTH ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 558
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 558
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Swirlogram Gets Worse ..................................................................................... 558
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Signals Contraction ......................................................................................................... 559
GLOBAL GROWTH Eurozone PMI and GDP .......................................................................................................................................... 560
GLOBAL GROWTH World PMI Rankings ................................................................................................................................................ 561
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Has Now Rolled Over ...................................................................................................... 562
GLOBAL GROWTH Global PMI Business Surveys Fall .......................................................................................................................... 562
GLOBAL GROWTH Baltic Dry Index Collapses 50% .............................................................................................................................. 563
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Slowdown on Verge of Contraction.............................................................................................................. 564
GLOBAL GROWTH - GDP Forecasts Continue to Be Taken Down........................................................................................................... 564
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Goldmans Swirlogram Getting More Serious ......................................................... 564
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Industrial Production Rolling Over ............................................................................................................. 565
GLOBAL GROWTH Consensus 2014 GDP Forecast - Differential ......................................................................................................... 566
GLOBAL GROWTH G10 Macro Change ................................................................................................................................................. 566
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 567
GLOBAL GROWTH - World's Busiest Freight Route Rates Plunge To 2014 Lows ................................................................................... 567
GLOBAL GROWTH - Goldman Global Leading Indicator Drastically Revised, Collapses into "Confirmed Slowdown" ............................ 568
GLOBAL GROWTH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine .......................................................... 570
GLOBAL GROWTH Potential of a Global Recession Mounting ............................................................................................................ 571
GLOBAL GROWTH What the hint of a Fed Taper Did to Global Growth Estimates....................................................................... 575
GLOBAL GROWTH - Uneconomic Energy Problematic ......................................................................................................................... 577
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global Growth Cycle ................................................................................................................................................. 579
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global GDP Contribution .......................................................................................................................................... 580
GLOBAL GROWTH - Slowing Global Growth - Air Cargo Shipments ........................................................................................................ 581
GLOBAL CREDIT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 582
CREDIT CYCLE - HY Leading the Way ........................................................................................................................................................ 582
CREDIT CYCLE - Reversal Ahead ................................................................................................................................................................ 585
CENTRAL BANKS Central banks can't raise growth potential, says ECB's Weidmann ......................................................................... 624
CENTRAL BANKS Axel Merks 2014 Outlook ....................................................................................................................................... 625
CENTRAL BANKS - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries .............................................................. 628
CENTRAL BANKS - Austerity Now Officially Dead Public Policy ........................................................................................................... 629
CENTRAL BANKS - A Serious Shortage of Quality Collateral - A $10T US Problem Over 10 Years ............................................... 630
CENTRAL BANKS - Global Balance Sheet Expansion .......................................................................................................................... 632
NEW-WAR ON CASH ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 637
NEW-WAR ON CASH Elliott Waves Report on the War on Cash ........................................................................................................ 637
NEW-WAR ON CASH The "War On Cash" Migrates To Switzerland...................................................................................................... 642
NEW-WAR ON CASH Chase Joins the War on Cash ............................................................................................................................. 645
NEW-WAR ON CASH Largest Bank In America Joins War On Cash ..................................................................................................... 647
NEW-WAR ON CASH Citigroup's Gold "Expert" Demands A Cash Ban ................................................................................................. 649
NEW-SWISS PEG ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 653
NEW-SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure First Central Bank To Lose Control .......................................................................................... 654
NEW-SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure The Financial System Broke Last Week .................................................................................. 656
NEW-SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure Keynesian Contral Banking is Destroying Money & Markets ................................................... 657
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 661
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Insider Says Central Banks Making it Up as They Go! ....................................................................... 661
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS 2007 Redux: Total public and private debt levels are 30pc higher in the advanced economies
...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 662
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Polish Pension Confiscation: Coming to a Theater near You .......................................................... 665
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Global Tax Overhaul .......................................................................................................................... 667
BOE - UK ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 668
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 668
UK Dissent within BOE Set to Continue ............................................................................................................................................... 668
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 668
UK - BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls .......................................................................................................... 668
UK - Mark Carney and "Flexible Inflation Targeting" ............................................................................................................................. 670
FED - US ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 672
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 673
NEW-CHARTS Feds QE History versus UST 10 Year Yields ............................................................................................................ 673
NEW-CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Growth .......................................................................................................................................... 673
CHARTS June 2015 Fed Rates Hikes Diminish ................................................................................................................................... 674
CHARTS Inflation Expectations 1 Yr, 5010Yr, 5Yr/5Yr ..................................................................................................................... 674
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 675
NEW-US MONETARY - Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - Yellen Secures More Flexibility for 'Patient' Fed.................................... 675
NEW-US MONETARY - Audit the Fed Yellens Testimony .................................................................................................................. 677
NEW-US MONETARY - Criticism by Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing of Fed Policy ....................................................... 686
US MONETARY - CAPITAL DISTORTION - Global Acceptance of the Bernankean Theory ............................................................... 689
US MONETARY - FINANCIAL REPRESSION - The Suspension of Price Discovery ........................................................................... 692
US MONETARY - The Fed is stuck in a QE Trap .................................................................................................................................... 695
US MONETARY - 2nd Worst Decade In US Growth in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) ........................................................... 697
US MONETARY - Mathematically, The Fed Can Only Fail ..................................................................................................................... 699
US MONETARY - QE Standing Between Inflated Equity Markets and A Recession .......................................................................... 705
US MONETARY - QE Programs versus S&P 500 Movements ............................................................................................................... 706
US MONETARY - BAML Warns If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will ..................................... 708
US MONETARY - Debt Increases $1 Trillion in One Year ...................................................................................................................... 710
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS The Road Ahead ....................................................................................................................................................... 713
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 713
NEW-JAPAN Japan Heads Back towards Deflation ............................................................................................................................ 713
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics -I ........................................................................................................................................... 714
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics II ......................................................................................................................................... 715
JAPAN Japanese Households Remain Pessimistic ............................................................................................................................ 716
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 717
NEW- GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - Japan Shocked To Find Abenomics Is Destroying Its Middle Class ...................................................... 717
NEW- GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game ................................................. 720
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Expansion Extremely Difficult to Stop Once Started ........................................................................ 721
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Policy Below the Event Horizon ................................................................................................... 724
BOJ JAPAN ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 726
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 726
JAPAN Japans Inflation Pressure Ebbs Away......................................................................................................................................... 726
JAPAN BOJ QE Expansion In Context Debt Monetization ................................................................................................................... 727
JAPAN Japanese Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................................. 728
JAPAN Japanese Real & Nominal Household Income ............................................................................................................................ 728
JAPAN CPI Shoots To 3.3% Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................................................................... 729
JAPAN Japan Government Investment Fund Asset Reallocation ..................................................................................................... 729
JAPAN Falling Real Rates as Financial Repression Takes Hold ....................................................................................................... 729
JAPAN Real Wages Plummet as Financial Repression Takes Hold .................................................................................................. 730
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 731
JAPAN - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game ...................................................................................... 732
JAPAN - How a Limo Ride With Paul Krugman Changed the Course of Abenomics ................................................................................. 734
JAPAN - Kurodas Former Boss Urges Ditching of BOJ 2% Inflation Target .............................................................................................. 737
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ....................................................................................................................... 739
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years .................................................................................................................................... 740
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history .......................................................................................... 743
JAPAN - Some Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ................................................................................................................................. 745
JAPAN - Foreshadows Next Global Crisis .................................................................................................................................................. 746
JAPAN - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world ....................................................................... 751
JAPAN - Shinzo Abes Monetary-Policy Delusions ..................................................................................................................................... 752
JAPAN - BOJ Governor Job Suddenly Available in Historical "Abenomics U-Turn" .................................................................................. 755
JAPAN - Japanese Economic Policy Goes The Full Ponzi ......................................................................................................................... 756
PBOC - CHINA ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 758
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 759
NEW-CHARTS Bank Loans in China accelerating at the fastest pace since Financial Crisis. ............................................................... 759
NEW-CHARTS China Reduces Bank Reserve Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 759
NEW-CHARTS Speculation Takes Hold of Sky Rocketing Chinese Stock Market ................................................................................. 760
NEW-CHARTS Falling Chinese Government Revenue Growth .............................................................................................................. 761
NEW-CHARTS Falling National New Residential Housing Starts ........................................................................................................... 761
NEW-CHARTS China and Asia Residential Property Tracking US Housing Bubble .............................................................................. 762
NEW-CHARTS Real Chinese Rates versus Cuts .................................................................................................................................... 762
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 763
NEW-CHINA MONETARY - China's "Animal Spirits" May Call For "Draconian" Measures To Curb Rally, UBS Says ............................. 763
NEW-CHINA MONETARY Is China Beginning to Panic as it Lowers Reserve Ratio ............................................................................. 765
NEW-CHINA MONETARY - Liquidity evaporates in China as 'fiscal cliff' nears......................................................................................... 767
ECB EU ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 773
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................... 773
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 774
NEW-CHARTS Welcome to the EUs NIRP........................................................................................................................................... 774
NEW-CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ............................................................................................................................... 775
NEW-CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ............................................................................................................................... 775
NEW-CHARTS UK & German Total Return Indices ................................................................................................................................ 776
NEW-CHARTS ECBs Dilemma of Digging Up Enough Debt .................................................................................................................. 776
NEW-CHARTS Nearly $2T European Nonds Trading With Negative Yields........................................................................................... 777
NEW-CHARTS Total National Debt Germany versus Industrial Country Average (ex-Germany) ....................................................... 777
NEW-CHARTS The Fastest Growing Asset Class NIR Products ......................................................................................................... 778
CHARTS Euro-Area Output Still Slightly Below Pre-Crisis Levels ........................................................................................................... 779
CHARTS 5 Year Inflation Swaps Suggests Deflation in the EU .............................................................................................................. 780
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Rate on the Decline Since 2011 ................................................................................................................ 780
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Expectations Decline ................................................................................................................................. 781
CHARTS Euro-Area Private Sector Loan Creation .................................................................................................................................. 782
CHARTS Euro-Area Money Supply, Private Sector Lending Growth ...................................................................................................... 782
CHARTS Euro-Area 10 Yr Sovereign Bond Yields .................................................................................................................................. 783
CHARTS Slovenia May BE the Next EU Debt Hotspot ............................................................................................................................ 783
CHARTS Spain & Portugal NPL ............................................................................................................................................................... 784
CHARTS ECBs Turn to Expand Its Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................................. 785
CHARTS ECBs Balance Sheet Contracted Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................... 785
CHARTS Expect Major ECB Policy Announcement in Q2 2014 .............................................................................................................. 786
CHARTS ECB Set to Stay on Hold as Inflation Seen Lower ................................................................................................................... 787
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 788
NEW-EU MONETARY - NIRP Is A Flawed Economic Concept ................................................................................................................. 789
NEW-EU MONETARY - NIRP ..................................................................................................................................................................... 791
NEW-EU MONETARY NIRP - Yield scarce as the world turns negative ................................................................................................. 795
NEW-EU MONETARY - XXXX .................................................................................................................................................................... 798
NEW-EU MONETARY - XXXX .................................................................................................................................................................... 798
EU MONETARY - Draghi Key Statements .................................................................................................................................................. 799
EU MONETARY - Draghi throws ECB door open to money printing as global prospects dim ................................................................... 799
EU MONETARY - Economic Recovery Too Weak for ECB to Avoid New Action ...................................................................................... 802
EU MONETARY - Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points toward QE ........................................................................................................... 803
EU MONETARY - EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases To Drive Euro Down ............................................................................ 806
MACRO MONETARY INFLATION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 808
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 808
NEW-CHARTS The Fall of Hyperinflation & the Rise of Deflation ............................................................................................................... 808
NEW-CHARTS Falling US Consumer Price Index ....................................................................................................................................... 808
CHARTS Global Consumer Prices are Rising Significantly ......................................................................................................................... 809
CHARTS Global Country Inflation Rates .................................................................................................................................................. 809
CHARTS Two Worlds if Inflation EM and DM ....................................................................................................................................... 809
CHARTS Developed Country Inflation Rates ........................................................................................................................................... 811
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 812
NEW- INFLATION Martin Armstrongs Explanation of Monetary Inflation........................................................................................ 812
INFLATION - Asset & Property inflation means shops have to pay higher rents with higher product prices ............................................. 814
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GOLD WARS Plummeting Gold Holdings at NY Fed from Foreign Repatriation .................................................................................. 1071
GOLD WARS Gold : Debt Ratio Correlation Something Seriously Amiss! ......................................................................................... 1071
GOLD WARS Nominal & Real Price of Gold 1790-2013 .................................................................................................................... 1073
GOLD WARS Gold v S&P 500 Against True Austrian Money Supply ................................................................................................... 1073
GOLD WARS Swiss National Bank Gold, FX & Total Assets ................................................................................................................ 1074
GOLD WARS Sovereign Gold Holdings According to the World Gold Council ..................................................................................... 1074
GOLD WARS European Countries Gold Reserves Repatriation ........................................................................................................... 1075
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1076
GOLD WARS - Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal in Over Ten Years ........................................................... 1076
GOLD WARS - European Nations Repatriate Gold Reserves from United States Vaults ....................................................................... 1077
GOLD WARS - Gold Shortage, Worst in 21st Century, And India Just Made It Worse ............................................................................ 1080
GOLD WARS - Deutsche Bank's Modest Proposal To Central Banks: "Purchase The Gold Held By Private Households" ................... 1082
INTERNATIONAL BANKING & SHADOW BANKING ......................................................................................................................................... 1084
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................. 1086
DEBT Growth of Financial Services ....................................................................................................................................................... 1087
DEBT REITS & CMBS Growth ............................................................................................................................................................... 1087
DEBT - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP...................................................................................................................................................... 1089
DEBT - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED DEBTORS ............................................................................................................................ 1091
FOOD PRICES & SHORTAGES Potential Disruption................................................................................................................................... 1092
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1092
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1093
CHARTS Cost of Thanksgiving Food ..................................................................................................................................................... 1093
CHARTS Consumer Price Increases Predominately Food in Emerging Economies ............................................................................ 1093
CHARTS Sticker Shock in Isle 1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 1094
CHARTS Food Importers ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1094
CHARTS US Beef Production To Reach 5 Years of Decline ................................................................................................................. 1095
CHARTS US CPI Turns Up on Food & Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 1096
CHARTS CRB US Spot Foodstuff Index One Year ............................................................................................................................ 1096
CHARTS CRB Food Index One Year .................................................................................................................................................. 1098
CHARTS Global Food Price Change 2007-2013 ................................................................................................................................... 1099
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1100
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1101
CHARTS Retail Food Services and Drinking Place Sales ..................................................................................................................... 1101
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures .......................................................................................................................................... 1102
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures - 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 1103
CHARTS Spiking Beef Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 1104
CHARTS Coffee Futures ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1104
CHARTS Lean Hog Futures ................................................................................................................................................................... 1105
CHARTS Ukraine Corn and Wheat Prices Up 15% Since YB ............................................................................................................ 1105
CHARTS Global Food Imports versus % Y-o-Y US$ Change ............................................................................................................... 1106
CHARTS UK Food Retailers v Commodity Food Price Index ................................................................................................................ 1106
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1107
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops .................................................................................. 1107
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest ..................................................................................................................... 1110
FOOD INFLATION - Food Price Manipulation in Thailand........................................................................................................................ 1110
CURRENCY WARS BACK ON Rate Wars Reversed With Un-Taper ............................................................................................................. 1112
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................. 1112
CURRENCY WARS - A Major Shift ............................................................................................................................................................. 1112
BATTLEFIELD - Combatants & Belligerents............................................................................................................................................. 1117
BATTLEFIIELD - The Race to Debase ....................................................................................................................................................... 1118
JAPAN - The Destabilizing Agent .................................................................................................................................................................. 1120
EUROPE - Euro Exposed .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1120
ARGENTINA - Here we Go Again! ................................................................................................................................................................ 1122
VENEZUELLA - Bad Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1123
BRAZIL - No One Wants to Listen ................................................................................................................................................................. 1123
SWITZERLAND - No Choice ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1123
SINGAPORE - Hot Money ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1124
UK- Pound Joins War .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1125
CYBER WARS Growing Threat & the Security-Surveillance Complex ............................................................................................................ 1126
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................. 1126
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - NSA Whistleblower Example: Booz Hamilton ..................................................................... 1129
SECURITY SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Growing Without Public Control or Supervision! ............................................................... 1132
CYBER SPYING ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1133
11
NEW-CHARTS "Over 1/2 of all government bonds yield less than 1%." ............................................................................................... 1142
NEW-CHARTS A weaker Euro has been good for the STOXX 600 ...................................................................................................... 1143
NEW-CHARTS Eurozone equity inflows continue to rise....................................................................................................................... 1143
NEW-CHARTS YTD flows into European equity funds .......................................................................................................................... 1143
NEW-CHARTS 3 Mo EURIBOR Drops to -0.001% - Below Zero for First Time? ................................................................................. 1144
NEW-CHARTS Negative Yields Have Become the New Norm in the Euro area ................................................................................. 1144
NEW-CHARTS "Swiss Government Becomes First Ever To Issue 10Y Debt At A Negative Yield" ..................................................... 1145
NEW-CHARTS Feb Retail Sales Y-o-Y +3.0% versus 2.8% est. .......................................................................................................... 1145
CHARTS Draghi Had To Deliver or it would have been a Collateral Massacre..................................................................................... 1146
CHARTS EU Disconnect Between Equity Prices & Earnings and Dividends ........................................................................................ 1146
CHARTS Eurozone is the Biggest Drag on Global Profits ..................................................................................................................... 1147
CHARTS Eurozone Government & Private Debt 276% of GDP (Excluding Financials) ....................................................................... 1147
CHARTS EU PMIS Rolling Over ............................................................................................................................................................ 1148
CHARTS Eurozone Banks Too Big To Be Bailed Out! .......................................................................................................................... 1149
CHARTS Eurozone Area Consumer Confidence May Be Misleading ................................................................................................... 1150
CHARTS Eurozone GDP & Recession Pattern ...................................................................................................................................... 1150
CHARTS EU-Area PMI Shows Sustained Deterioration ........................................................................................................................ 1151
th
CHARTS Euro Area CPI Seen Below 1% for 11 Month ....................................................................................................................... 1151
CHARTS Euro Area Domestic Demand has lagged US & Japan by 9% since 2010 ............................................................................ 1152
CHARTS Euro Area Inflation Levels ....................................................................................................................................................... 1153
CHARTS Geo-Political Tensions May Weigh on Confidence ................................................................................................................ 1154
CHARTS Stalling Euro-Area Recovery Heightens ECB QE Pressure ................................................................................................... 1154
CHARTS Industrial Production Slows In Line With PMIs ....................................................................................................................... 1155
CHARTS ZEW Expectations Signals Slowdown Ahead ........................................................................................................................ 1156
CHARTS Euro-Area July PMI ................................................................................................................................................................. 1156
CHARTS Corporate Borrowing Spreads Remain Wide ......................................................................................................................... 1157
CHARTS ECB Less Accommodative Than the Fed ............................................................................................................................... 1157
CHARTS EU Financial Conditions Deteriorating .................................................................................................................................... 1158
CHARTS EU Confidence ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1159
CHARTS - Slow Money Growth May Stoke Deflation Concerns .............................................................................................................. 1159
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation at Lowest Level Since 2009 Individual Countries ................................................................................. 1160
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation Aggregate .............................................................................................................................................. 1161
CHARTS - 10M Part-Time Workers Underemployed in EU ...................................................................................................................... 1162
CHARTS - Euro-Area Housing Prices Decline .......................................................................................................................................... 1163
CHARTS - Euro-Area Trade Surplus ......................................................................................................................................................... 1164
CHARTS - Euro-Area Composite PMI ....................................................................................................................................................... 1165
CHARTS - EU Area Weakness ................................................................................................................................................................. 1166
CHARTS - EU Area GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1167
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1168
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1169
CHARTS - EU Real Rates ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1170
CHARTS - EU -NON Euro Members GDP RELIANCE ............................................................................................................................. 1171
CHARTS - EU GLOBAL GDP GROWTH CONTRIBUTION ..................................................................................................................... 1172
CHARTS - EU PMI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1172
CHARTS - EU CPI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1174
CHARTS - Regional Risk-Reward ............................................................................................................................................................. 1175
CHARTS - Europe's "Core" Problem is France ......................................................................................................................................... 1176
CHARTS - Germany's Preoccupation with Inflation is More Than It Would Seem ................................................................................... 1179
CHARTS - Evidence OF Global Slowing Now Indisputable ...................................................................................................................... 1180
CHARTS - EU Credit Downgrades, France and UK On Tap .................................................................................................................... 1182
CHARTS - Perceived Reduction in Risk, A Temporary Aberration ........................................................................................................... 1184
CHARTS - Dangerous Delusional Divergences ........................................................................................................................................ 1186
CHARTS - IMF Projections for Euro Area and GIIPS ............................................................................................................................... 1187
CHARTS - Air Cargo Shipments Confirm Slowing Global Growth ............................................................................................................ 1188
CHARTS - Eurozone Misery Indices Never Been Higher ......................................................................................................................... 1189
CHARTS - Euro Currency .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1191
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1196
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1197
RESEARCH The Broken Model of the Eurozone ................................................................................................................................... 1197
RESEARCH The Japanization of Europe in 9 This Time It Is Different Charts .................................................................................. 1198
RESEARCH Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble ............................................................................ 1199
RESEARCH Euro Areas Stalling Industry No Support for GDP............................................................................................................ 1201
RESEARCH Early Warnings of Euro-Area Downturn Strengthen ECBs QE Case .............................................................................. 1201
RESEARCH ECB Rate Decision ............................................................................................................................................................ 1203
RESEARCH Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points Toward QE ............................................................................................................. 1206
RESEARCH ECB v FEDERAL RESERVE ............................................................................................................................................. 1207
RESEARCH The ECBs Negative Deposit Rate .................................................................................................................................... 1209
RESEARCH EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases to Drive Euro Down ................................................................................. 1211
RESEARCH Beware of EU Banks! ......................................................................................................................................................... 1213
RESEARCH Emerging Markets Aggravates Festering Banking Problems ........................................................................................... 1213
RESEARCH European Banks Have $3 Trillion of Exposure To Emerging Markets .............................................................................. 1216
RESEARCH - EFSF Downgraded to AA+ ................................................................................................................................................. 1218
RESEARCH - EU Stabilization Programs Are Presently Very Fragile ...................................................................................................... 1219
RESEARCH - Spreads Widened in Peripherals and Significantly in Portugal and Greece ...................................................................... 1222
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1224
PROGNOSIS: Why the European Situation Will Get Worse ..................................................................................................................... 1224
PROGNOSIS: Increasing Structural Imbalances ...................................................................................................................................... 1227
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PROGNOSIS: $22T Unaccounted - A Hidden World of Contingent Liabilities, Government Backing & Guarantees.............................. 1229
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's LTRO Not a Solution but ................................................................................................... 1234
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's SMP Effort Futile ............................................................................................................... 1237
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB Accepts BBB Collateral ....................................................................................................... 1239
PROGNOSIS: EU Banking Overbanked, Undercapitalized and Now Insolvent ....................................................................................... 1240
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - TARGET2 "Contingent Liabilities" ............................................................................................... 1241
PROGNOSIS: Bailouts - Unsustainable & Unfundable ............................................................................................................................. 1247
ITALY FALLING BIRTH RATE & "MIGRANT BOAT PEOPLE" MOUNTING PROBLEMS ............................................................................. 1249
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1250
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Quarterly GDP Growth ..................................................................................................................................... 1250
CHARTS - ITALY 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.3% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1250
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................ 1252
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Core Inflation ................................................................................................................................................... 1252
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Industrial Porduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1253
CHARTS - ITALY Meal Affordability Deteriorates .................................................................................................................................. 1254
CHARTS - ITALY Falling Oil & Gas Consumption ................................................................................................................................. 1255
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bond Yields ..................................................................................................................................................... 1255
CHARTS - ITALY Slips Back Into Recession ......................................................................................................................................... 1256
CHARTS - ITALY 10 Year Bond Yields Fall to Record Low .................................................................................................................. 1257
CHARTS - ITALY - Forced Rate Cuts ....................................................................................................................................................... 1258
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1259
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1259
NEW-RESEARCH Demographic Devastation: Italy's Birth Rate Drops To 150 Year Low .................................................................... 1259
RESEARCH Italy Falls Back Into Recession, Raising Concerns for Eurozone ..................................................................................... 1261
RESEARCH - Italys Downward Spiral ...................................................................................................................................................... 1264
RESEARCH - Italys Budget Failures, Weak Growth Outlook Call Debt Sustainability Into Question ..................................................... 1266
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1270
ITALIAN ELECTION - What You Need to Know ....................................................................................................................................... 1270
ITALIAN ELECTION - Europe Capitulates On Austerity- Never Had The Stomach For It ....................................................................... 1271
ITALIAN ELECTION - Message Given By the People .............................................................................................................................. 1273
ITALIAN ELECTION - Bad Debt Continue to Soar .................................................................................................................................... 1277
ITALIAN ELECTION - Italians React Badly to Austerity, Elections Hardly a Surprise! ............................................................................. 1279
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #1 ............................................................................................................................... 1280
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #2 ............................................................................................................................... 1282
ITALIAN ELECTION - Regional Financial Cracks in Sicily........................................................................................................................ 1285
FRANCE ASTOUNDING HIGH # OF PEOPLE DON'T HAVE FAITH IN HOLLANDE.................................................................................... 1287
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1287
CHARTS FRANCE Industrial production stagnated in February - 15% below pre-crisis levels. ........................................................ 1287
CHARTS FRANCE Bankruptcies Soar as Profitability Slumps ........................................................................................................... 1287
CHARTS FRANCE Post Hollande Election Results Jobseekers and 10 Year Yield ....................................................................... 1287
CHARTS FRANCE French Job Seekers ............................................................................................................................................. 1288
CHARTS FRANCE Inflation Expectations ........................................................................................................................................... 1288
CHARTS - FRANCE Hollande Popularity Gap Heading for a Record Low ........................................................................................... 1290
CHARTS - FRANCE Austerity Doesnt Get You Re-Elected ................................................................................................................. 1290
CHARTS - FRANCE Worlds Worst PMI Ranking in June ..................................................................................................................... 1291
CHARTS - FRANCE Near-record high bankruptcies and record-low profitability .................................................................................. 1292
CHARTS - FRANCE Frances PMI Trend Weakness Beginning to Stand Out...................................................................................... 1292
CHARTS - FRANCE Manufacturing Divergence With Germany Widens .............................................................................................. 1293
CHARTS - FRANCE - GDP ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1294
CHARTS - FRANCE - UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................ 1295
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUDGET DEFICIT ................................................................................................................................................. 1296
CHARTS - FRANCE - TAX v GDP ............................................................................................................................................................ 1297
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUSINESS CONFIDENCE.................................................................................................................................... 1298
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1299
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1299
RESEARCH Economic Malaise Sparks Political Crisis in France ......................................................................................................... 1299
RESEARCH - France In "Political Turmoil" After Hollande Unexpectedly Dissolves Government .......................................................... 1301
RESEARCH Prime Minister Manuel Vall Resigns .................................................................................................................................. 1303
RESEARCH - European Voters Are Revolting; France Warns "Situation Is Grave for France, Europe" ................................................. 1303
RESEARCH - Steady Breakdown Underway ............................................................................................................................................ 1306
RESEARCH - France Loses its Coveted and NEEDED AAA Rating........................................................................................................ 1310
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1312
NEW-FRANCE - An astoundingly high number of French people don't have faith in Hollande 05-02-15 BI ........................................... 1312
NEW-FRANCE - French utility EDF seeks to cut workers 10-week holiday quota 05-26-15 FT ............................................................. 1312
FRANCE - What You Need to Know ......................................................................................................................................................... 1314
FRANCE - Key Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1315
FRANCE: Sharpest Drop in Private Sector Output in Four Years ............................................................................................................ 1318
FRANCE - Quits on Austerity - Never a Doubt This Would Happen ......................................................................................................... 1321
FRANCE - Socialism is Expensive ............................................................................................................................................................ 1322
FRANCE - Has Turned back to Socialism ................................................................................................................................................. 1324
FRANCE - Losing Its Way through Political Illusions and Lies ................................................................................................................. 1325
FRANCE - Uncompetitive .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1326
FRANCE - Titan Tire Calls Out French Labor ........................................................................................................................................... 1328
FRANCE - France Responds to Titan Tire ................................................................................................................................................ 1330
FRANCE - What Happens In France When Companies Fire People ....................................................................................................... 1332
FRANCE - Hollande's Economically Insane campaign Promise ............................................................................................................... 1333
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS > CONFIDENCE > CONSUMPTION > GROWTH CYCLE.................................................................................... 2017
BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2018
SOME HIGHLIGHTS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2018
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2021
NEW-CHARTS Full Time Jobs Approach 2007 Highs ........................................................................................................................... 2021
NEW-CHARTS Full Time versus Part Time Jobs................................................................................................................................... 2021
NEW-CHARTS April Jobs Added By Industry ........................................................................................................................................ 2022
NEW-CHARTS Wages of Production & Non-Supervisory Employees Y-0-Y % Change ...................................................................... 2022
NEW-CHARTS Full Time versus Part Time Jobs................................................................................................................................... 2023
NEW-CHARTS Full Time versus Part Time Jobs................................................................................................................................... 2023
NEW-CHARTS Full Time versus Part Time Jobs................................................................................................................................... 2023
NEW-CHARTS US Labor Productivity.................................................................................................................................................... 2024
NEW-CHARTS Wages of All Employees Y-o-Y % Change ................................................................................................................... 2024
CHARTS Big January Jump In Number of People Who Went from Not in the Labor Force to Employed.......................................... 2025
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls Monthly and Yearly Change ................................................................................................................. 2026
CHARTS Civilian Unemployment Rate................................................................................................................................................... 2026
CHARTS JOLTS-Total Job Openings .................................................................................................................................................... 2026
CHARTS New Jobless Claims w/ 4 Week Moving Average .................................................................................................................. 2027
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls .................................................................................................................................................................. 2027
CHARTS US Monthly Job Growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 2029
CHARTS Labor Market Improving with Troublesome Signs .................................................................................................................. 2029
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................................................ 2029
CHARTS - Corporate Profits versus Wages .............................................................................................................................................. 2030
0B
21
..................................................... 2030
CHARTS - Standard of Living Decline and Bear Market in Real Terms Reflect Labor Participation ....................................................... 2030
.................................................................................................. 2031
CHARTS - Underemployment Gap ............................................................................................................................................................ 2032
1B
6B
.................. 2032
CHARTS - Participation Rate..................................................................................................................................................................... 2033
CHARTS - Part Time Employment ............................................................................................................................................................ 2033
NEW-CHARTS - U3 & U6 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2034
NEW-CHARTS - Employment Situation Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2034
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2042
NEW-RESEARCH - Part-Time Jobs Soar By 437,000; Full-Time Jobs Tumble, Stay Firmly Under Pre-Recession Highs .................... 2042
NEW-RESEARCH - The "Illegal Immigrant" Recovery? The Real Stunner In The Jobs Report .............................................................. 2043
RESEARCH - Gallup CEO: "America's 5.6% Unemployment Is One Big Lie" ......................................................................................... 2048
RESEARCH - This Is Why Hewlett-Packard Is Firing 58,000 ................................................................................................................... 2050
RESEARCH - American Express to cut more than 4,000 jobs ................................................................................................................. 2051
22
23
SENTIMENT: For CNBC, 2014 Was The Worst Year. Ever. ..................................................................................................................... 2132
SENTIMENT: An Astounding Number Of Americans Aren't Investing A Cent ..................................................................................... 2134
SENTIMENT: US Households to Withdraw $430 Billion From Stocks In 2014 ...................................................................................... 2139
SENTIMENT: Elliott Wave's View from the Top ........................................................................................................................................ 2142
BUSINESS CYCLE CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 2146
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2146
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2150
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y/Y and Sequential Change ............................................................................................. 2150
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Y-0-Y ......................................................................................................................................................... 2150
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Ex Auto...................................................................................................................................................... 2151
NEW-CHARTS VICE Index and Discretionary Spending....................................................................................................................... 2152
NEW-CHARTS Value of Manufacturers New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries ........................................................................ 2153
NEW-CHARTS y-0-y Chain Store Sales ................................................................................................................................................ 2153
NEW-CHARTS Y-0-Y Factory Orders .................................................................................................................................................... 2154
NEW-CHARTS Annual Growth in Retail Sales ...................................................................................................................................... 2154
CHARTS Retail Sales Have 2 Mo Change Drop Dating Back to 2009 .................................................................................................. 2155
CHARTS Retails Sales Mo-o-Mo Drops ................................................................................................................................................. 2155
CHARTS Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services by Kind .............................................................................. 2155
CHARTS What Americans Spent Their "Gas Savings" On .................................................................................................................... 2156
CHARTS Retail Sales-Previous Month Comparisons ............................................................................................................................. 2158
CHARTS No Offset to Plunging Gas Sales in Ex-Auto, Ex Gas ............................................................................................................ 2159
CHARTS Deflated Retail (ex Auto) Christmas and Aftermath ............................................................................................................... 2159
CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y-o-Y and Sequential Change .................................................................................................... 2160
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added Since the Great Financial Crisis .............................................................................................. 2160
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added in Q4 2014 ............................................................................................................................... 2161
CHARTS Real Personal Consumption ................................................................................................................................................... 2161
CHARTS Discretionary Retail Sales ....................................................................................................................................................... 2162
CHARTS False Signal of Consumer Re-Leveraging .............................................................................................................................. 2163
CHARTS Sub-Prime Lending Drives Spending ..................................................................................................................................... 2164
CHARTS Retail Sales ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2164
CHARTS Retail Sales - Details ............................................................................................................................................................... 2166
CHARTS Consumer Credit Growth Since Cycle Peak ........................................................................................................................... 2167
CHARTS Real Income is The Key Driver of Consumption Spending .................................................................................................... 2167
CHARTS Consumer Credit Drove Household Debt in Q2 Mortgage Debt Lagged ............................................................................ 2168
CHARTS Discretionary Spending Showing Signs of Cracking .............................................................................................................. 2168
CHARTS - Real Disposable Personal Income .......................................................................................................................................... 2169
CHARTS - Real Consumption Expenditure ............................................................................................................................................... 2171
CHARTS - Consumer Credit Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 2172
CHARTS - Core Retail Growth .................................................................................................................................................................. 2173
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2174
RESEARCH - Headwinds for US Consumers & Home Buyers ................................................................................................................ 2174
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2175
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2176
RESEARCH - 95% of Consumer Credit Lending Going towards Student & Car Loans ................................................................... 2178
RESEARCH - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ..................................................................................................................................... 2180
RESEARCH - Gallup Survey Shows -10% Reduction in Christmas Buying Plans ........................................................................... 2183
RESEARCH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine .................................................................... 2184
RESEARCH - A Sequential Decline in Wages ....................................................................................................................................... 2185
RESEARCH - Final Sales Signals Pending Potential Recession on the Horizon ............................................................................. 2186
RESEARCH - Consumers Using Savings to Maintain Life Style ........................................................................................................ 2186
RESEARCH - The Destruction of America's Middle Class .................................................................................................................. 2189
RESEARCH - Dramatic Slowing in Restaurant Business .................................................................................................................... 2189
RESEARCH - Signs of Serious Troubles .................................................................................................................................................. 2190
RESEARCH - Falling Real Disposable Income means Falling Consumption ................................................................................... 2193
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2195
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2200
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2200
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2204
NEW-CHARTS US Q2 GDP Consensus Forecast versus Atlanta Feds 0.7% ..................................................................................... 2204
NEW-CHARTS Q1 2015 US GDP Growth Consensus Estimate ........................................................................................................... 2206
NEW-CHARTS US Business Investment Current versus Previous Recoveries ................................................................................. 2206
NEW-CHARTS US Vehicle Miles 12 Month Total All Roads ........................................................................................................... 2207
NEW-CHARTS CAPEX Use of Cash .................................................................................................................................................. 2207
NEW-CHARTS Change in Total Private Industries ................................................................................................................................ 2208
NEW-CHARTS US Private Construction Spending ............................................................................................................................... 2208
CHARTS Ratio of Coincident-to-Lagging Conference Board Indices .................................................................................................... 2209
CHARTS GDP Q4 2014 Revised Components Table ............................................................................................................................ 2210
CHARTS Quarterly Change in % Contributions to GDP ........................................................................................................................ 2210
CHARTS Three Reasons CAPEX is Faltering ....................................................................................................................................... 2210
CHARTS ISM Rally Has Petered Out & Expected Inflation Has Fallen ................................................................................................. 2211
CHARTS Philly Fed Rolling Over ........................................................................................................................................................... 2212
CHARTS US Profits & Sales Have Stalled ............................................................................................................................................. 2212
CHARTS Real GDP versus CAPEX ....................................................................................................................................................... 2213
CHARTS Change In Inventories Inflated from Lack of Demand ......................................................................................................... 2214
CHARTS US GDP Revision for Q4-2014 ............................................................................................................................................... 2214
CHARTS Quarterly GDP by Component Breakdown ............................................................................................................................. 2215
24
CHARTS Long Term US GDP Growth Estimates FOMC versus CBO ............................................................................................... 2216
CHARTS US Real Domestic Product Running Out of Runway .......................................................................................................... 2216
CHARTS Steadily Falling Real US Growth Estimates ........................................................................................................................... 2218
CHARTS US Power Consumption Tells the Real Story of US Growth & De-Industrialization .............................................................. 2219
CHARTS US Real Trade Gap (Ex-Petroleum) ....................................................................................................................................... 2219
CHARTS Consecutive Quarters of Contracting Growth Looming .......................................................................................................... 2220
CHARTS Bloombergs Consensus GDP Forecasts 2011-2014.......................................................................................................... 2221
CHARTS GDP Growth During Current Recovery Lags Past Expectations ........................................................................................... 2221
CHARTS Trends of Output, Hours and Productivity .............................................................................................................................. 2222
CHARTS Weak US Capacity Utilization ................................................................................................................................................. 2223
CHARTS A US Recession Likely IF Liquidity is not increased and TAPER Sustained ......................................................................... 2223
CHARTS Barrons Sees 4% Growth The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator ............................................................................................. 2224
CHARTS Firms Revising Lower Q1 Growth on Weakening Retail Sales .............................................................................................. 2225
CHARTS Negative Economic Surprises Began in November ............................................................................................................... 2225
CHARTS What Americans Experience Daily and its Isnt Growth ......................................................................................................... 2226
CHARTS - Manufacturing .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2227
CHARTS - Exports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2227
CHARTS - Durable Goods ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2228
CHARTS - NFIB Small Business CAPEX .................................................................................................................................................. 2228
CHARTS - US Manufacturing Conditions Deteriorating ............................................................................................................................ 2229
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2230
NEW-RESEARCH - Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy .................................................. 2230
RESEARCH - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Downward to 2.18% ................................................................................... 2231
RESEARCH - The U.S. Economy is Dead ................................................................................................................................................ 2233
RESEARCH - Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown ......................................................................................... 2235
RESEARCH - US Q1 GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2237
RESEARCH - US GDP Growth Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 2243
RESEARCH - Economic Recoveries Don't Look Like This! ................................................................................................................ 2243
RESEARCH - 2nd Worst Decade in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) ........................................................................................ 2244
RESEARCH - US Economy is being fundamentally transformed ............................................................................................................. 2246
RESEARCH - Shrinking CAPEX, Expanding Buybacks and Dividends ............................................................................................. 2249
REFERENCE - Prior Posts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2252
RESEARCH - US Economic Recovery Has Peaked ............................................................................................................................. 2252
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2256
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2260
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2267
25
26
FISCAL POLICY US NOW HAS NATIONAL PRODUCTIVITY & STATE AND LOCAL FISCAL PROBLEMS ......................................... 2447
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2448
NEW-PEURTO RICO .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2448
NEW-ILLINOIS & CHICAGO ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2448
A SHRINKING BUDGET DEFICIT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS ................................................................................................................... 2449
FISCAL MATTERS ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2450
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 2453
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2453
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .................................................... 2453
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ................................................................. 2453
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ................................................................. 2454
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change............................................................................................... 2454
NEW-FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 ................................................................................................................ 2454
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 2455
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2456
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 2457
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 2457
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 2458
RESEARCH - $70T Off-Balance Sheet Federal Liabilities ....................................................................................................................... 2459
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2462
CHARTS Mandatory versus Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................. 2462
CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense .......................................................................................................... 2462
CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits .................................................................................................................. 2463
CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ......................................................................................... 2464
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 2465
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 2465
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 2465
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 2466
FEDERAL BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................. 2467
BUDGET - President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart .................................................................................................................... 2468
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government .................................................................................................................. 2469
BUDGET - Budget Deficit Shrinking and Shrinking Infrastructure Spending ................................................................................................ 2474
RESEARCH - CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed .......................................................................................... 2475
RESEARCH - $89.5 trillion in liabilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 2477
RESEARCH - The Federal Government is "cooking the books"! ................................................................................................................. 2481
RESEARCH NIA 2015 U.S. Debt Crisis Report ......................................................................................................................................... 2485
STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2495
CHARTS State & Local Tax Revenues ...................................................................................................................................................... 2495
NEW-RESEARCH - Almost Half of US States Are Officially Broke ........................................................................................................ 2495
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Crisis ....................................................................................................................................... 2500
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................ 2506
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2511
RESEARCH Private Pension Fund Levels Fall Behind ............................................................................................................................. 2511
RESEARCH Professor Laurence Kotlikoff on the $210T Fiscal Gap ...................................................................................................... 2514
NEW-US REGULATORY COSTS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2517
NEW-CHARTS Annual Cost of Federal Regulation 2012, $1.863T ....................................................................................................... 2517
NEW-RESEARCH Investor Uncertainty ..................................................................................................................................................... 2517
US TAX POLICY & ISSUES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2519
CHARTS 7 Corporate CEOs Paid More Than Corporation Paid Tax ........................................................................................................ 2519
CHARTS - Americas 100 highest-paid CEOs, 29 received more in pay than company federal income taxes ........................................... 2520
CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 2523
CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World ....................................................................... 2523
CHARTS How Banks Use Dividend Arbitrage to Reduce Client Tax ...................................................................................................... 2524
RESEARCH - Tax Rate Comparisons ........................................................................................................................................................ 2525
RESEARCH - Payroll Tax Holiday ................................................................................................................................................................ 2525
RESEARCH - Taxes & Spending .................................................................................................................................................................. 2526
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2530
MISC CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2533
27
28
29
30
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Family Dollar to cut jobs, shut 370 stores as sales fall ................................................................. 2786
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The Death of a 71% Consumption Driven Economy ...................................................................... 2788
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Getting Worse Fast ............................................................................................................................ 2790
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion ........................................................................................................................... 2792
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion - II ..................................................................................................................... 2793
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Financial Crisis II Coming ................................................................................................................. 2798
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Indoor Mall Retail in Trouble ............................................................................................................. 2805
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Mortgage bonds reflect diverging fortunes of US malls ....................................................................... 2808
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Dead Mall Syndrome: The Self-Reinforcing Death Spiral of Retail ..................................................... 2810
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The First Domino to fall: Retail-CRE (Commercial Real Estate) ......................................................... 2812
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - After Seven Lean Years: US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects 2817
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Cannibalization ................................................................................................................ 2823
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Tsunami of Retail Store Closings and Downsizings Coming ............................................................... 2824
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ....................................................................................................... 2826
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2829
OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2829
NATIONAL STATISTICS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ....................................................................................................................... 2830
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