Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Content
Investment Approach
Investment Objective and Horizon
Investment Process
Portfolio Composition
Key Investment Themes
Market and Valuation
Wealth Creation : Case Studies
Wealth Creation : @ Centrum PMS
Performance Of PMS Schemes
PMS Product Suite
Centrum Team
Annexure
Investment Approach
He who would search for pearls must dive below - John Dryden
This is our philosophy with stock selection We deep dive into companies and their
operational working before we make an investment in the stock.
While there are many Oysters in the Ocean but only a few will yield a Pearl
We believe that our bottom-up approach would help us find those Oysters which will
have Pearls Good companies within the overall universe of stocks.
To build a concentrated portfolio of select stocks with a focus to create significant value
over the long term by identifying and investing in deep value stocks some of which may
be relatively under researched small and mid caps.
Pearls from Oysters are not made in a day
The fund will largely adopt a Buy and Hold strategy. It will hold the stocks till the
expected return from the potential opportunity is not fully realized. At the same time,
the objective is not to stay invested in a stock idea through out the life-time of the
fund. As the market typically delivers a non-linear return profile, the fund manager may
opportunistically seek to re-allocate money across stock ideas dynamically. We may also
exit our investment for loss or insignificant gain if there is any adverse development in
our view.
Private and Confidential
A stock which is bought at a sufficient discount to intrinsic value gives potential for
wealth creation after allowing for a margin of safety to reduce risk.
Market Cap definition: Large-cap stock > Rs. 20,000 Crore, Mid-cap stock - Rs 1000 Crore
to 20,000 Crore, Small-cap stock - Rs 100 Crore to 1000 Crore.
Investment Process
1) IDEA GENERATION:
Quarterly Results
Macro Trends
Policy Changes
Corporate Actions
Broker Reports
News
Stock Screens
Historical Price movement
Stock suitability
Market Cap
Liquidity
Management Background
Key return ratios
5) PORFOLIO MONITORING
& REVIEW:
Performance
Attribution analysis
Back to step 1
4) PORTFOLIO ACTION:
Compliance check
Stock weight
Sector weight
Index v/v non index
Sector view
Decision on sector weight
Decision stock weight
Final decision:
2) BASIC CHECK:
Buy/Sell/Hold
Private and Confidential
3) DETAILED
FUNDAMENTAL
ANALYSIS:
Financial Modeling
Management meeting
Valuation
Detailed peer analysis
Detailed Team Discussion
5
Portfolio Composition
Portfolio will have exposure to around 15 stocks. This is a reasonable concentration thus
lending a higher risk to the portfolio. At the same time, the potential to earn good return
would also be reasonably higher.
Portfolio will predominantly be invested in mid-cap and small-cap companies which may
be illiquid at the time of investment.
Client Suitability
Suitable for equity investors with high risk appetite seeking relatively superior returns
and with longer term investment horizon.
Cyclical
RecoveryInfra,
Logistics
Banking and
Financial
Services
Exporters
12
11
1000
10
800
9
8
600
7
400
6
5
200
4
0
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
BSE-MID CAP
Dec-08
Dec-09
BSE SENSEX
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
3
Dec-14
The sharp market rise between 2007 and 2010 coincided with higher economic
growth. Within that mid caps outperformed.
Similarly, the period of sharp correction coincided with reduced economic growth
and within that mid caps underperformed.
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum
Pre Election
3 Month
1991
1996
1998
1999
2004
2009
2014
2004
2009
2014
2004
2009
2014
Post Election
1 Year
18 Months
2 Year
36.3%
-5.5%
13.3%
-0.4%
-14.3%
30.2%
9.4%
SENSEX
46.4%
-11.2%
-13.9%
19.8%
-2.2%
57.4%
16.9%
177.9%
1.6%
-3.0%
-2.3%
7.6%
60.7%
?
125.0%
12.3%
17.1%
-15.1%
26.6%
63.9%
?
79.9%
8.4%
69.1%
-31.5%
107.2%
77.1%
?
2.9%
13.6%
16.5%
-8.6%
44.8%
18.1%
BSE MIDCAP
4.8%
89.1%
31.9%
34.7%
104.2%
?
62.3%
113.9%
?
149.4%
109.6%
?
-1.7%
15.1%
18.8%
BSE SMALLCAP
-5.5%
21.7%
40.6%
92.5%
27.4%
43.7%
82.5%
129.5%
?
138.3%
138.5%
?
238.6%
124.2%
?
11.7%
33.2%
-2.0%
16.5%
0.8%
17.4%
10.4%
3 Months
6 Months
10
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.11% 0.00
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.00%
26.80
3-Jun-90
3-Dec-90
3-Jun-91
3-Dec-91
3-Jun-92
3-Dec-92
3-Jun-93
3-Dec-93
3-Jun-94
3-Dec-94
3-Jun-95
3-Dec-95
3-Jun-96
3-Dec-96
3-Jun-97
3-Dec-97
3-Jun-98
3-Dec-98
3-Jun-99
3-Dec-99
3-Jun-00
3-Dec-00
9.00%
11
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1480
1500
1300
1320
1100
900
700
500
Nifty (1990-1999)
12
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-94
Dec-93
Dec-92
Dec-91
100
Dec-90
1-Dec-99
1-Dec-98
1-Dec-97
1-Dec-96
1-Dec-95
1-Dec-94
1-Dec-93
1-Dec-92
1-Dec-91
1-Dec-90
300
12000
25
10000
20
8000
15
6000
24
18
4000
GDP Growth %
BSE Midcap
Dec-14
0
Dec-13
Dec-12
2
Dec-11
5000
Dec-10
Dec-09
10000
Dec-08
Dec-07
15000
Dec-06
Dec-05
20000
SENSEX
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
0
Jan-07
0
Jan-06
Jan-05
10
10
2000
12
25000
19
16
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum, as of 31st December 2014; * in order to avoid any near term volatility in earnings the
forward P/E has been calculated based on the average earnings over the next two years.
13
Jan-15
May-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-10
Sep-09
May-08
Jan-09
Min; ; 7.45
Sep-07
Nifty
forward
P/E
is
currently at 15.5x (as of 31st
Jan 2015), just above the
long term average of close
to 14x and 23% below the
peak of 20x in Jan 2008.
Jan-07
May-06
Sep-05
P/E
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
146.5
140
120
95.6 96.7
100
86.0
80
60
76.6 80.6
67.3
65.5
45.3
53.5
54.4
52.1
60.8
CY2015*
CY2014
CY2013
CY2012
CY2011
CY2010
CY2009
CY2008
CY2007
CY2006
CY2005
CY2004
CY2003
40
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum, *Based on Government budgeted GDP estimate of FY2015E, (*As of 31st Jan, 2015)
14
Number of
firms
Annualized Returns
71
34
Greater than 5x
70
Total
175/500
(35%)
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking, data from Jan 2005 to June 2014
146 firms out of current BSE 500 are not part of this analysis as they were added to BSE500 later or were listed post 2005
Stock selection significantly improves alpha as is evident from the above statistic
16
Company Name
Returns
193%
238%
236%
242%
248%
260%
272%
350%
Lupin Ltd
396%
413%
17
1600
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
0
Dec-07
Dec-08
900
1400
800
1200
700
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
600
1000
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
0
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
0
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
18
b. Our Expectations
The company was witnessing
improved order book flow and was
building further capacity in the
stainless
steel
segment.
We
expected the state and central
government to increase orders
which would help the company post
robust numbers going forward. The
reduction in debt owing to high
free cash flow generation were
other triggers
c. Performance
As of 31st January
2015, the stock is
up by 88% from
our
average
purchase price in
a time frame of
seven months.
600
500
400
b
a
300
200
100
0
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
20
b. Our Expectations
We had expected that the company
would be able to grow its loan book
on a consistent basis owing to lesser
competition in the non-salaried
segment. Moreover, geographical
diversification was another growth
driver. Further, we had expected that
the growth in the housing sector
would be key emphasis of any
government.
c. Performance
As
of
31st
January 2015,
the stock is up
by 115% from
our
average
purchase price
in a time frame
of one year.
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
21
b. Our Expectations
The company was on recovery
path as was visible from the
quarterly numbers. With the
revival in the return ratios and
better regulations in place the rerating possibility was very high.
We believed that the company
would continue to benefit from
increased
penetration
of
organized microfinance in the
rural areas.
c. Performance
As
of
31st
January 2015,
the stock is up
by 118% from
our
average
purchase price
in a time frame
of ten months.
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
22
b. Our Expectations
The company exhibited strong
revival in earnings and order
flow showed a sharp uptrend.
The quarterly numbers had
bottomed out and the y-o-y
numbers started showing good
upward trend.
The
companys
calibrated
approach in the BOOT projects
also was working well.
c. Performance
As
of
31st
January 2015,
the stock is up
by 145% from
our
average
purchase price
in a time frame
of
seven
months.
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
23
b. Our Expectations
Increased order book owing to
higher
Transmission
and
Distribution spends to drive
revenue growth from FY16E.
With increased emphasis on Grid
connectivity and higher capex in
the HVDC and GIS segments the
company stands to benefit.
c. Performance
As of 31st January
2015, the stock is
up by 9% from our
average purchase
price in a time
frame of one and
half month.
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
24
b. Our Expectations
Indian specialty chemical sector
to benefit from revival in end
user industry and higher share in
global markets vis--vis China.
Consistent ramp up in capacity to
aid further growth.
Further diversification into newer
products to be other growth
driver..
c. Performance
As of 31st January
2015, the stock is
up by 26% from our
average purchase
price in a time
frame
of
five
months.
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
25
b. Our Expectations
The company is a key play on the
growth of the 2-wheeler industry.
Increased penetration in the 4-wheeler
segment and pick-up in exports to be
other growth drivers.
Acquisitions done by the company
expected to be EPS accretive in the
future.
c. Performance
As
of
31st
January 2015,
the stock is up
by 17% from
our
average
purchase price
in a time frame
of five months.
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
26
PMS Performance
27
PMS Performance
WEALTH CREATOR
Index / PMS
Models
BSE 500
Wealth Creator
6-M
15.4%
41.8%
Absolute Return
12-M
24-M
51.3%
48.0%
86.8%
68.0%
30-M
71.8%
82.5%
Absolute Return
12-M
24-M
51.3%
48.0%
98.3%
85.8%
30-M
71.8%
121.8%
DEEP VALUE - I
Index / PMS
Models
BSE 500
Deep Value
6-M
15.4%
40.1%
Portfolio performance is the median performance of clients in the respective scheme & Net of charges;
Performance as of 31st January 2015
M-month
28
PMS Performance
DEEP VALUE - II
Index / PMS
Models
BSE 500
DV2
Absolute Return
3-M
5-M
7.09%
12.38%
13.56%
28.68%
Portfolio performance is the median performance of clients in the respective scheme & Net of charges;
Performance as of 31st January 2015
M-month
29
30
Risk
Glocal
Portfolio
Deep Value
Portfolio I, II, III
Wealth
Creator
Portfolio
Growth
Portfolio
Return
Private and Confidential
31
Comparison of Models
PORTFOLIO
OBJECTIVE
STRATEGY
SUITABILITY
32
Comparison of Models
PORTFOLIO
OBJECTIVE
STRATEGY
SUITABILITY
33
Centrum Team
34
Investment Team
Key Personnel
Kunj Bansal
Executive Director & Chief Investment Officer
35
Investment Team
Key Personnel
Ankit Agarwal
Fund Manager
6
Ankit got his MBA from IIM Bangalore ,one of the premier B-schools in the world.
His most recent engagement has been with the wealth & investment management arm of Barclays where he was
leading a part of the equity research team, instrumental in managing over USD 300mn in total equity assets under
management.
He brings in diverse international experiences in the financial services industry having worked with Lehman
Brothers, London and BNP Paribas, Hong Kong on their institutional trading desk and D.E.Shaw India, US based
hedge fund.
He has a strong academic pedigree along with expertise in the Indian equity markets and works closely with the CIO
in taking macro and micro calls for the funds investments.
Ankit frequently comes on various business channels and print media to give views on the markets.
Abhishek Anand
Fund Manager
Abhishek has 10 years of experience with 8 years in institutional equity research covering multiple sectors such as
Telecom, Media ,IT & Consumer.
He won the Starmine Top Analyst Award for 2011-12 (Rank 3rd for Information Technology sector) and 2012-13 (Rank
1st for Information Technology sector and 5th overall sector) by Thomson Reuters.
Abhishek has been quoted frequently on the Telecom sector in various financial dailies and appears on business
channels to give his views on the Telecom sector.
His previous assignments were with institutional research division of SBI Capital Markets, Dun & Bradstreet & CMIE.
He is an MBA Finance from Mumbai University & PGDTFM from ICFAI University.
Private and Confidential
36
Over two decades of experience in setting up and running businesses across Wealth Management,
Private Banking and Institutional and Retail Equities.
An MBA (University of Mumbai) and a CFA Charter holder from the CFA Institute, USA . He is also a
Certified Financial Planner (CFP).
20+ years of experience in Capital markets including Retail Broking and Private Client Services
Previously Founder member of Kotak Securities Online Broking-kotakstreet.com renamed
kotaksecurities.com and Head Private Client Group at Kotak Securities. Last assignment Head - Retail
Broking and Wealth Management at HSBC Investdirect
B.Com (Gold medalist Bangalore University), ACA, Grad CWA with All India First in both CA and ICWA
37
Annexure
38
Risk Factors
Securities investments are subject to market risks and there can be no assurance or
guarantee that the objectives will be achieved.
Investment in securities, the value of the portfolio under management may go up or
down depending upon various factors and forces affecting the capital markets.
Investors in PMS are not being offered any guaranteed /assured returns.
Each portfolio will be exposed to various risks depending on the investment
objective, investment strategy and the asset allocation.
The name of the products do not in any manner indicate their prospects or returns.
Each client is advised to consult his/her financial advisors before availing of PMS.
39
Disclaimer
Email - centrumpms@centrum.co.in
Centrum Broking Limited (CBL) is part of the Centrum group. It provides Portfolio Management Services and
is registered with SEBI under Registration No. INP 000004383. Centrum Broking Limited is also into Stock
broking and is a member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX and Depository participant of CDSL. Our research
professionals provide important inputs into the Group's Investment Banking and other business selection
processes. One of our group companies, Centrum Capital Ltd is an investment banker and an underwriter of
securities. As a group Centrum has Investment Banking, Advisory and other business relationships with a
significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group.
None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any
particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for
any specific investor. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and
other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and
unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially
from those expressed or implied in such statements.
The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate
or complete, and it should be relied upon as such. The opinions, figures and other charts, etc. are sourced
from publicly available information, in-house research and/or are just internal interpretation/analysis of
reports/data sourced from the various sources. Neither Centrum, nor any person connected with it, accepts
any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their
investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the
date of appearing on this material only.
40