Opening Bell

March 11, 2015

China industrial production YoY, Japan PPI YoY,

UK
industrial
production
YoY,
UK
manufacturing production YoY
Index Movement (past one month)

Key Developments

BSE (RHS)

The current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to US$8.4 billion (1.6%

of GDP) in Q3 from US$10.1 billion (2.0% of GDP) in Q2FY15. The
improvement was primarily led by an increase in invisibles balance
The Mines & Minerals Bill is stalled in the Rajya Sabha. It needs to be
passed before the session recesses on March 20 in order to replace
the ordinance promulgated earlier
NMDC, which has been directed by the Supreme Court to shut down
its famous Panna diamond mines in Madhya Pradesh by June 2016
due to ecological concerns, is now gearing up to approach the apex
court to seek extension of the mining period by four years to 2020
As per media sources, Sesa Sterlite is expected to save $1.3 billion
over the next four years by reorganising its procurement and
marketing strategy in an effort to harness group synergies
The US Supreme Court has agreed with Natco Pharma and denied
further review for the generic version of Tamiflu oral capsules
(Oseltamivir Phosphate). Natco has already received tentative
approval for this drug
Tata Power has commissioned the 63 MW first unit of its 126 MW
Dagachhu Hydro Power Corporation in Bhutan

Sensex
Nifty

10-Mar

5-Mar

25000
3-Mar

26000

8000
28-Feb

27000

8200
26-Feb

28000

8400

24-Feb

29000

8600

20-Feb

30000

8800

18-Feb

9000

13-Feb

Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets ended negative on the back of relentless selling
activities by both funds and retail investors in the absence of any
positive triggers and as the US jobs report raised concerns on an
early rate hike by the US Fed
US markets ended negative due to concerns on a strong US dollar,
which jumped to a 12 year high against the euro and concerns on
the outlook for interest rate ahead of the Feds policy next week

Todays Highlights

11-Feb

Market Outlook
After profit booking in the previous sessions, Indian equity markets
may open on a flattish note even though global markets remain on a
negative note. Throughout the day, the market may remain largely
range bound.

NSE (LHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

28,710 28,845
-0.5
-2.2
4.4
17.8
8,712
8,757
-0.5
-2.1
5.2
17.7

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY13
112,221
-73,385

CY14 YTD CY15 Yesterday Last 5 Days

99,525
33,334
838
6,365
-30,570
-6,606
-35
-335

World Indices Monthly performance

Germany
11,500
6.9%
NSE
8,712
1.7%

Nikkei
18,758
5.7%
Nasdaq
4,860
1.5%

Shanghai
3,318
4.6%
Dow Jones
17,663
1.5%

France
4,882
4.0%
BSE
28,710
1.2%

Kospi
1,978
2.5%
U.K.
6,703
-1.8%

Nifty Heat Map

Bharti
Airtel
PNB
Infosys
BPCL
L&T
Cipla
Dr Reddy

368.0
7.1%
163.4
1.2%
2,198.0
0.4%
764.2
0.0%
1,752.5
-0.6%
729.5
-0.6%
3,437.3
-0.9%

Power
Grid

148.5

Tata
power

81.1

HUL

-1.2%
-1.4%
957.2
-1.9%

Coal India
Tech M.

370.7
3.8%
2,839.8
1.0%

ICICI
Bank

333.7

Bank of
Baroda

179.9

Asian
Paints

808.0

Maruti
Wipro
RIL
Sun
Pharma
Hindalco

0.3%
-0.1%
-0.6%
3,646.8
-0.7%
654.3
-0.9%
859.2
-1.2%
1,024.7
-1.6%
138.1
-2.0%

M&M
Bajaj
Auto
BHEL
TCS
GAIL
Sesa
Sterlite
Axis Bank
NTPC
Ultratech
JSPL

1,228.3
1.8%
2,129.3
0.9%
259.1
0.2%
2,642.7
-0.2%
383.6
-0.6%
197.6
-0.8%
585.5
-1.0%
150.0
-1.2%
3,017.2
-1.6%
190.1
-2.3%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

NMDC

129.8
1.6%

United
Spirits

3,675.1

Indusind
Bank

896.8

Grasim
Ind

3,698.9

ACC
IDFC
HCL Tech

0.8%
0.2%
-0.3%
1,650.2
-0.6%
171.5
-0.8%
2,044.2
-1.0%

Kotak
Bank

1,347.8

Ambuja
Cement

259.5

DLF

-1.2%
-1.6%
144.9
-4.0%

Lupin
Hero
Moto
ITC
ONGC

1,898.4
1.5%
2,617.7
0.7%
338.6
0.1%
314.4
-0.5%

HDFC
Bank

1,052.6

Tata
Motors

560.2

SBI
Tata Steel
Cairn
India
HDFC Ltd

-0.6%
-0.9%
287.6
-1.0%
331.6
-1.4%
231.1
-1.6%
1,312.4
-4.1%

Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

Change (%) MTD(%)

YTD(%)

26,167
35,610
56.9
5788.5

26,742
35,979
56.4
5894

-2.2
-1.0
0.9
-1.8

-2.7
-2.6
-9.1
-2.3

-3.2
-2.5
-0.8
-9.1

62.78
1.07
121.37

62.54
1.07
121.13

0.4
-0.1
0.2

-1.5
-4.5
-1.4

0.4
-11.7
-1.3

60.4
10.9
46.9
34.7
54.5

60.6
11.1
47.5
34.8
55.2

-0.4
-1.4
-1.2
-0.4
-1.3

7.7
NA
2.3
-3.8
10.0

19.5
NA
12.3
10.7
9.3

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Sectoral Index
Sector

3-Mar

3,634
19,047

2-Mar

4,611
18,432

10000

3,648
19,542

20000

5-Mar

9-Mar

10-Mar

0
4-Mar
BSE Cash

NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

400000

2-Mar

3-Mar

4-Mar

233,192

100000

248,485

200000

236,434

300000

5-Mar

9-Mar

10-Mar

NSE Derivative

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Close

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

Auto

19555.9

19484.0

71.9

0.4

1080000

Banks

21852.9

21960.6

-107.8

-0.5

6962000

BSE Small Cap

11319.6

11351.9

-32.3

-0.3

67526000

Capital Goods

17717.2

17789.6

-72.4

-0.4

14897000

Consumer Durables

10331.4

10208.8

122.6

1.2

679000

8157.6

8189.8

-32.2

-0.4

1322000

FMCG

30000
6,861
26,326

Prior Values
5,681.39bln IN
10.1bln $
23.88bln $
338.08bln $
5.30%
4.50%
32.21bln $
1.70%
2.10%
38.6bln $
8.32bln $
8.00%
-10.70%
-0.39%
1.05%
4.00%
7.75%
6.75%

299,396

Latest Values
7.50%
4.70%
4.00%
7.50%
6.75%

4,224
21,328

Release Date
31-Mar
02~13Mar
09-Mar
13-Mar
09-Feb
30-May
09-Mar
12-Mar
12-Mar
02~13Mar
09-Mar
16-Mar
16-Mar
16-Mar
16-Mar
03-Feb
04-Mar
03-Feb

169,411

Period
Feb
Q4
Feb
w/e
Q3
12M
Feb
Jan
Jan
Q4
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
N/A
N/A
N/A

4,648
23,942

Key Domestic Economic Indicator

Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate

225,409

Key Data Points

Healthcare

17009.7

17042.3

-32.6

-0.2

1585000

IT

11717.0

11706.6

10.3

0.1

1073000

Metals

9858.9

9802.0

56.9

0.6

4827000

Mid Cap

10860.3

10901.2

-41.0

-0.4

78079000

Oil & Gas

9538.7

9613.7

-75.0

-0.8

2534000

Power

2205.3

2219.3

-14.0

-0.6

19669000

PSU

7862.0

7846.9

15.2

0.2

17593000

Real Estate

1716.6

1748.6

-31.9

-1.8

13609000

Healthcare
Capital Goods
Power
Mid Cap
BSE Small Cap
Auto
Real Estate
Banks
IT
0.0
Consumer Durables
-0.2
PSU
FMCG
-0.6
-2.1
Metals
Oil & Gas -3.6
-5.0

0.0

12.2
10.0
5.1
4.6
3.9
3.2
2.9
1.8
1.6

5.0
(%)

10.0

Key News for Today

Maruti
Suzuki/Auto
sector

Maruti has recalled 33098 units (comprising We believe this would not have any
Alto 800 - 19780 units and Alto K10 - 13318 major impact on the company's
units) to inspect and replace the front and rear performance
right hand door latch assembly

Infrastructure &
real estate sector

The Lok Sabha has cleared the contentious land Though it has been cleared in the Lok
acquisition bill, along with nine amendments Sabha, it still lacks the votes in the Rajya
proposed by the government
Sabha to put those changes permanently
on the statute book

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

15.0

Key News for Today

Ashoka Buildcon

1) Ashoka Buildcon is planning to buy a 36%

stake in Jaora Nayagaon Toll Project in Madhya
Pradesh from existing investors like Srei Infra
and IFCI for | 900 crore

It currently owns a 37.7% stake in the

Jaora Nayagaon project. The additional
36% stake at | 900 crore appears to be
expensive though we still await further
details on valuation

2) According to media reports, Ashoka Buildcon The proceeds from QIP are likely to be
is planning to raise nearly | 700 crore via used to fund new BOT projects, which
qualified institutional placement (QIP) this month are expected to come up for bidding in
the coming months

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Weakness below the candle could

test 28694..." The index traded lower and
broke the previous support at 28694 at 2:50
pm, before ending 135 points or 0.4% lower.
While telecom stocks surged higher, most
other sectors ended flat to negative. The
Realty Index lost about 2% while the A/D ratio
continued to be negative, at 1:2.
The action formed a smaller Bear candle but a
break below 28694 generated "faster"
retracement of the last rally. The bias remains
negative as long as the index keeps making a
lower high-low. Protecting the low can be
positive but watch if a higher high is also
made. We are now watching if the negative
implication of last week's ELB would be similar
to the previous ELB.

Pivot Points
Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI PORT
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
AMBUJA CEMENT
AMTEK AUTO
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSP.ENT.
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
AXIS BANK
BAJAJ AUTO

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Close
28709.87
8712.05
1650.15
648.45
317.55
1649.90
105.20
259.50
152.25
82.30
1358.05
173.70
300.30
74.50
807.95
1127.30
585.45
2129.25

S1
28546.55
8666.95
1629.75
632.30
312.20
1651.95
104.95
256.65
150.25
81.05
1337.25
172.50
295.25
74.30
800.65
1126.05
578.70
2130.70

S2
28384.25
8617.60
1616.95
623.30
309.10
1643.45
104.00
253.30
148.90
80.40
1324.40
171.30
292.85
73.60
794.35
1114.80
571.80
2119.55

R1
28728.85
8717.25
1651.75
652.20
318.80
1668.95
106.80
260.45
152.60
82.30
1360.55
174.85
300.80
75.70
808.65
1148.55
586.10
2153.05

R2
28820.00
8742.40
1662.75
662.10
322.10
1684.20
107.70
262.30
153.80
82.90
1372.20
176.05
303.60
76.15
812.65
1157.75
589.80
2167.90

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) March 2014

8300
82
8400
8500 89
74
8600
8700
68
8800
57
8900
9000
9100
100.0

36

25
45
28
27

62
113
6

81
50.0
C a ll

Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA

Intraday

Short Term

Rangebound
0
8690-8660
8750-8780
0
0

Up
8670
8670
9370
8814
8039

Advances / Declines
Advances
1223
605

BSE
NSE

Declines
1629
902

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy TVS Motors in range of 295.00-296.00
2. Sell DLF below 145.00

*All recommendations are of March Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Buy AURPHA Mar Fut at 1110.00-1114.00
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 1126
Target 2: 1150
Stop Loss: 1097
Market Lot: 250
CMP : 1130

4
2

0.0

Nifty

Intraday Derivative Strategy

13
9

50.0

Trend
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
Neutral
-ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
+ve

P ut

100.0

150.0

Sell HINDAL Mar Fut at 140.50-141.00

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 139.25 Target 2: 136.80
Stop Loss: 142.75
Market Lot: 2000
CMP : 139.20

See Daily Derivatives for more details

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Unchanged
114
66

Results/Events Calendar

16

Monday

India WPI YoY

Japan GDP Annualised QoQ
Japan Ind. Prod. YoY
0
0

23

17

February

Tuesday

UK CPI YoY
0
0
0
0

24

February
Monday

0
0
0
0
0

18

February

Ambuja Cement
SKF India
US Ind. Prod. MoM
US Manu. (SIC) Prod.
0

25

February
Tuesday

02

HSBC India Manu. PMI

HSBC China Manu. PMI
Eurozone Manu. PMI
US Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone CPI Core YoY

09

10

March

11

March

Tuesday

China Industrial Prod. YoY

Japan PPI YoY
UK Industrial Production YoY
UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY
0

17

March

18

March
Tuesday

Eurozone CPI YoY

0
0
0
0

Japan Trade Balance

0
0
0
0

Major Economic Events this week

Date
9-Mar
9-Mar

19

March

13

March

20

March
Thursday

US Current Account Bal

US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
0
0

Friday

28

February

07

Friday

Saturday

Saturday

March

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

14

March
Friday

March

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

21

March
Friday

ECB Current Account SA

0
0
0
0

February

0
0
0
0
0

March

Japan Industrial Prod. YoY

0
0
0
0

21
0
0
0
0
0

February

Eurozone GDP SA YoY

US Trade Balance
0
0
0

Thursday

India Industrial Prod. YoY

India CPI YoY
Uk Trade Balance
Eurozone Industrial Prod. YoY
US Initial Jobless Claims

Wednesday

06

March

12

March

Friday

India Fiscal Deficit

Japan CPI YoY
Japan Ind. Prod. YoY
US GDP YoY
0

Thursday

US Initial Jobless Claims

US Continuing Claims
0
0
0

Wednesday

27

Thursday

05

March

February

KSB Pumps
Japan Manu. PMI
Eurozone Manu. PMI
US Manu. PMI
0

February

US CPI YoY
UK GDP YoY
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
0

Wednesday

India Comp./Service PMI

China Comp./Service PMI
Japan Comp./Service PMI
US Comp./Service PMI
Eurozone Comp./Service PMI

India Imports YoY

India Exports YoY
China CPI YoY
0
0

Monday

India Wholesale Prices YoY

US Industrial Prod. MoM
US Manufacturing Prod.
0
0

04

March

Tuesday

Eurozone PPI YoY

0
0
0
0

Monday

Japan Current Account Bal.

Japan GDP Annualized QoQ
0
0
0

16

03

March

Monday

Thursday

26

February
Wednesday

20

February

Japan Trade Balance

US Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
ECB Current Account
0

Castrol
India Eight Infrastructure Ind.
HSBC China Manu. PMI
0
0

Eurozone CPI YoY

Markit US Services PMI
Markit US Composite PMI
0
0

19

February
Wednesday

March
Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Bulk Deals

Event
CountryPeriod
BoP Current Account Balance JN
Jan
JN
4Q F
GDP Annualized SA QoQ

Actual Expected
61.4B 270.4B
1.50%
2.20%
Expected Previous
---

Company
BSE*
Advanta Ltd
APL Apollo Tubes
Motilal Oswal Fin Serv

Type

Upl Limited
Hdfc Mutual Fund
Franklin Templeton Investment Funds

Buy
Buy
Buy

540,000
196,000
2,000,000

425.0
365.1
292.0

Date
Event
11-Mar Industrial Production YTD YoY

CountryPeriod
CH
Feb

11-Mar
11-Mar
11-Mar
12-Mar
12-Mar
12-Mar

PPI YoY
Industrial Production YoY
Manufacturing Production YoY
Industrial Production YoY
CPI YoY
Trade Balance

JN
UK
UK
IN
IN
UK

Feb
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Jan

-------

12-Mar
12-Mar
12-Mar
12-Mar

Industrial Production WDA YoY

Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Exports YoY

EC
US
US
IN

Jan
7-Mar
28-Feb
Feb

-- -0.20%
------ -11.20%

Date

Report

09 March 2015

Management Meet Update Prima Plastics

12-Mar Imports YoY

12-Mar CPI YoY

IN
CH

Feb
Feb

--

-11.40%
-0.80%

09 March 2015

Company Update TCS

05 March 2015

Company Update Cairn India

13-Mar Industrial Production YoY

JN

Jan F

--

04 March 2015

Management Meet Update Kaveri Seeds

03 March 2015

Company Update Axis Bank

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

0.30%
0.50%
2.40%
1.70%
5.11%
-2895

-2.60%

No. of
shares Price (|)

Client Name

NSE*
Ambika Cotton Mills Limit

Eicher Goodearth Private Limited

Buy

45,217

691.6

Ambika Cotton Mills Limit

Valuequest India Moat Fund Ltd.

Buy

40000

699.2

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1-7 days

5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

10%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest

Not regularly
recommended

3 months

20%

Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

Fortnightly
Fortnightly every
alternate Wednesday

> 7-15
days

5 7%

When published

> 1 year

> 20% &

above

Quarterly

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research