Handout #01

How is Climate Change different from Global Warming?

Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature,
precipitation, wind speed, hurricanes, cyclones, etc.) lasting for an extended period (decades
or longer). Climate change may result from natural factors and processes or from human
activities.
Global Warming refers to an average increase in temperature of the atmosphere near the
earths surface, which can contribute to changes in global climate pattern. However, rising
temperatures is just one aspect of climate change.

Main indicators of global warming

As explained by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a US Agency,
there are 7 indicators that would be expected to increase in a warming world and 3 indicators
that are expected to decrease. They are:

Figure 1: Indicators of Global Warming

Indicators expected to increase in a warming world:

1. Humidity
2. Tropospheric temperature
3. Sea level rise
4. Sea surface temperature
5. Temperature over oceans
6. Ocean heat content
7. Temperature over land
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Indicators expected to decrease in a warming world:

1. Glaciers
2. Snow cover
3. Sea ice

Greenhouse Gas Effect

The Sun powers Earths climate, radiating energy at very short wavelengths, predominately
in the visible or near-visible (e.g., ultraviolet) part of the spectrum. Roughly one-third of the
solar energy that reaches the top of Earths atmosphere is reflected directly back to space.
The remaining two-thirds is absorbed by the surface and, to a lesser extent, by the
atmosphere. To balance the absorbed incoming energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate
the same amount of energy back to space. Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it
radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in the infrared part of the spectrum1(see
Figure 2). Much of this thermal radiation emitted by the land and ocean is absorbed by the
atmosphere, including clouds, and reradiated back to Earth. This is called the greenhouse
effect. The glass walls in a greenhouse reduce airflow and increase the temperature of the air
inside. Analogously, but through a different physical process, the Earths greenhouse effect
warms the surface of the planet. Without the natural greenhouse effect, the average
temperature at Earths surface would be below the freezing point of water. Thus, Earths
natural greenhouse effect makes life as we know it possible. However, human activities,
primarily the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests, have greatly intensified the
natural greenhouse effect, causing global warming.
The two most abundant gases in the atmosphere, nitrogen (comprising 78% of the dry
atmosphere) and oxygen (comprising 21%), exert almost no greenhouse effect. Instead, the
greenhouse effect comes from molecules that are more complex and much less common.
They are: Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas; Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the
second-most important one; Methane (CH4); Nitrous oxide (N2O); Ozone (O3); and several
other gases present in the atmosphere in small amounts also contribute to the greenhouse
effect.

All objects (unless they have a temperature of zero degrees Kelvin) radiate energy. The temperature of an
object determines the type of radiation it emits. Hence, every star radiates energy with wavelengths
corresponding to its surface temperature: a cooler star would radiate a more reddish light, a hotter one a more
bluish one. Reddish and bluish stars can be seen readily in the night sky. Most of the light emitted by our star,
the Sun, is yellowish. By measuring the light received from the Sun we know that its radiation corresponds to a
surface temperature of about 6000C (or 6300 K).
Just as the temperature of the Sun's surface determines the kind of electromagnetic radiation it delivers, so the
temperature of the Earth determines what kind of radiation it puts out to space, which turns out to be infrared, or
heat radiation. The kind of infrared radiation given off by the various areas of Earth's surface depends on
their temperature, which in turn depends on a number of factors such as the amount of sunlight absorbed and the
heat spent in evaporating water. In the desert, after sundown, one can readily sense the high-energy infrared
given off by rocks recently warmed by the Sun's rays, but all surfaces radiate heat, whether recently warmed by
the Sun or not. Typically, temperatures on the surface of Earth vary somewhere between freezing and 90F,
which roughly defines the broad "spectrum" of infrared radiation emitted upward into the atmosphere.

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Figure 2: An idealised model of natural greenhouse gas effect (Adapted from IPCC AR4)

Together, these gases make up less than 1% of the atmosphere. This is enough to produce a
Natural greenhouse gas effect that keeps earth some 20-30% warmer (essential for life)
than what it would have been in the absence of these gases.
In the humid equatorial regions, where there is so much water vapour in the air that the
greenhouse effect is very large, adding a small additional amount of CO2 or water vapour has
only a small direct impact on downward infrared radiation. However, in the cold, dry polar
regions, the effect of a small increase in CO2 or water vapour is much greater. The same is
true for the cold, dry upper atmosphere where a small increase in water vapour has a greater
influence on the greenhouse effect than the same change in water vapour would have near the
surface.
Several components of the climate system, notably the oceans and living things, affect
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. A prime example of this is plants taking
CO2 out of the atmosphere and converting it (and water) into carbohydrates via
photosynthesis. In the industrial era, human activities have added greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere, primarily through the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests resulting in
Enhanced greenhouse effect whic is responsible for global warming.

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Main greenhouse gases (GHGs) of concern are:

1. Water Vapour
2. Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
3. Methane (CH4)
4. Ozone (O3)
5. Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
6. Industrial gases like CFCs, PFCs, HFCs, SF6
Levels of all GHGs (with the exception of water vapour) is rising as a direct result of human
activity. The levels of GHGs is determined by a balance between sources and sinks.
Sources are processes that generate GHGs and sinks that destroy or remove them. Humans
are affecting the GHG levels by introducing new sources or by interfering with natural sinks.

How do Human Activities Contribute to Climate Change and How do They

Compare with Natural Influences?
Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earths atmosphere in
the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness. The largest
known contribution comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas
to the atmosphere. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and
particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system. Since the start of the
industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a
warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to
known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.
Greenhouse Gases
Human activities result in emissions of five principal greenhouse gases:
1. Carbon dioxide (CO2);
2. Methane (CH4);
3. Nitrous oxide(N2O); and
4. Halocarbons (a group of gases containing fluorine, chlorine and bromine e.g. CFC,
HFC, PFC).
5. Ozone (O3)
These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, causing concentrations to increase with time.
Significant increases in all of these gases have occurred in the industrial era (since 1750) as is
evident from Figure 3.

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Figure 3: Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases over the last 2,000 years.
Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts
per million (ppm)or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per
million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (From IPCC Assessment Report 4,
WG1)

All of these increases are attributable to human activities.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is currently responsible for over 60% of the enhanced GHG
effect. Its concentration in atmosphere has increased from fossil fuel use in
transportation, building heating and cooling and the manufacture of cement and other
goods. Deforestation releases CO2 and reduces its uptake by plants. Carbon dioxide is
also released in natural processes such as the decay of plant matter.

Methane (CH4) contributes to about 20% of enhanced GHG effect and has
increased as a result of human activities related to agriculture, natural gas distribution
and landfills. Methane is also released from natural processes that occur, for example,
in wetlands. Methane concentrations are not currently increasing in the atmosphere
because growth rates decreased over the last two decades.

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is also emitted by human activities such as fertilizer use and
fossil fuel burning. Natural processes in soils and the oceans also release N2O.
N2O, industrial gases and O3 contribute to the remaining 20% to Enhanced GHG
effect.

Halocarbon gas concentrations have increased primarily due to human activities.

Natural processes are also a small source. Principal halocarbons include the
chlorofluorocarbons (e.g., CFC-11 and CFC-12), which were used extensively as
refrigeration agents and in other industrial processes before their presence in the
atmosphere was found to cause stratospheric ozone depletion. The abundance of

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chlorofluorocarbon gases is decreasing as a result of international regulations

designed to protect the ozone layer.

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas that is continually produced and destroyed in the
atmosphere by chemical reactions. In the troposphere, human activities have increased
ozone through the release of gases such as carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and
nitrogen oxide, which chemically react to produce ozone. As mentioned above,
halocarbons released by human activities destroy ozone in the stratosphere and have
caused the ozone hole over Antarctica.

Water vapour is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
However, human activities have only a small direct influence on the amount of
atmospheric water vapour. Indirectly, humans have the potential to affect water
vapour substantially by changing climate. For example, a warmer atmosphere
contains more water vapour. Human activities also influence water vapour through
CH4 emissions, because CH4 undergoes chemical destruction in the stratosphere,
producing a small amount of water vapour.

Greenhouse gases and Aerosols

A second important influence on climate is that of Aerosols.

These clouds of microscopic particles are not a GHG. In addition to various natural
sources, they are produced from SO2 emitted from power station, and by smoke from
deforestation nd the burning of crop wastes.

Natural aerosols include mineral dust released from the surface, sea salt aerosols,
biogenic emissions from the land and oceans and sulphate and dust aerosols produced
by volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols are emitted in such massive quantities that they have a substantial impact on
climate. Most aerosols cool teh climate locally by scattering sunlight back into space.
Aerosols can also block sunlight directly.

Over heavy industrialized regions, aerosol cooling may counteract nearly all the
warming effect of GHG increase.

However, the atmospheric lifetime of aerosols in very short compared to that of

GHGs and thus we cannot rely on them to combat Global Warming.

Feedback Mechanisms
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the
changes in the second quantity in turn changes the first.
There are many feedback mechanisms in the climate system that can either amplify (positive
feedback) or diminish (negative feedback) the effects of a change in climate forcing.
Positive feedback work to speed up or amplify the warming. Negative feedback work to slow
down or offset the warming.
Examples
As rising concentrations of greenhouse gases warm Earths climate, snow and ice begin to
melt. This melting reveals darker land and water surfaces that were beneath the snow and ice,
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and these darker surfaces absorb more of the Suns heat, causing more warming, which
causes more melting, and so on, in a self-reinforcing cycle. This feedback loop, known as the
ice-albedo feedback, amplifies the initial warming caused by rising levels of greenhouse
gases. Detecting, understanding and accurately quantifying climate feedbacks have been the
focus of a great deal of research by scientists unravelling the complexities of Earths climate.
The largest contributor to the natural greenhouse gas effect is water vapour. Water vapour
matters for climate change because of an important positive feedback. As warmer air can
hold more moisture which leads to increased concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere
which in turn leads to more warming, further adding to the enhanced greenhouse gas effect,
resulting in a positive feedback mechanism.
Another important feedback mechanism is that of radiative cooling. As the temperature of a
body increases, the emission of radiation back into space increases with the fourth power of
its absolute temperature (By Stefan-Boltzmann law). This increases the amount of outgoing
radiation as earth warms, resulting in cooling of the earth and hence leading to negative
feedback.
Additional important feedback mechanisms involve clouds. Clouds are effective at absorbing
infrared radiation and therefore exert a large greenhouse effect, thus warming the Earth.
Clouds are also effective at reflecting away incoming solar radiation, thus cooling the Earth.
A change in almost any aspect of clouds, such as their type, location, water content, cloud
altitude, particle size and shape, or lifetimes, affects the degree to which clouds warm or cool
the Earth. Some changes amplify warming while others diminish it. Much research is in
progress to better understand how clouds change in response to climate warming, and how
these changes affect climate through various feedback mechanisms.

The Climate Has Always Varied In The Past. How Is This Any Different?
Since CO2 has the highest concentration of all the greenhouse gases and is the most likely to
cause us problems in the very near future, it is the greenhouse gas that has received the most
attention in the debate over global warming. However, as we shall learn in later chapters,
increased emission of other gases, especially methane, also pose a strong threat to the
stability of Earths climate.
Throughout Earths history the climate has varied, sometimes considerably. Past warming
does not automatically mean that todays warming is therefore also natural. Recent warming,
has been shown to be due to human industrialization processes.
The rise of CO2 gas in our atmosphere has been measured continuously since 1958 and
follows an oscillating line known as the "Keeling Curve," named after Dr. Charles David
Keeling, professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Prof. Keeling was the first to
measure carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. He demonstrated its annual fluctuations
(the little squiggles in the curve) and was the first to report that global atmospheric
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concentrations of carbon dioxide were rising. The concentration of CO2 is given in units of
parts per million by volume, also abbreviated ppmv. (ppmv is the volume of gaseous
pollutant per 106 volumes of ambient air, in this case the ratio of carbon
dioxide molecules with all other air molecules). Before the industrial era, atmospheric
CO2 concentration was between 275 and 280 ppmv for several thousand of years (that is,
between 275 and 280 molecules of CO2 for every one million molecules in the air); this we
know from the composition of ancient air trapped in polar ice. Carbon dioxide has risen
continuously since then, and the average value when Dr. Keeling ted his measurements in
1958 was near 315 ppmv. By the year 2000 it has risen to about 367 ppmv (that is 367
molecules of CO2 for every one million molecules in the air). Thus, it is higher than preindustrial values by one third of the pre-industrial era.

A graph of Dr. Keelings now famous curve of increasing CO2 concentration. The measurements are
made at a station on top of Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Note carefully the magnitude of the increase from 1958
until present.

Another evidence we have is from research done by NASA which got published in Oct. 2009.
The graph they came out with is based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained
in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric
CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution:

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Graph by NASA, as assesses on Oct. 2009

The above covers hundreds of thousands of years and shows how atmospheric CO2 levels have
dramatically increased in recent years.
If we zoom in on just the past 250 years, we see the following:

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Relationship between Climate Change and Weather

Climate is generally defined as average weather, and as such, climate change and weather are
intertwined. Observations can show that there have been changes in weather, and it is the
statistics of changes in weather over time that identifies climate change. While weather and
climate are closely related, there are important differences. A common confusion between
weather and climate arises when scientists are asked how they can predict climate 50 years
from now when they cannot predict the weather a few weeks from now. The chaotic nature of
weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days. Projecting changes in climate (i.e., longterm average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very
different and much more manageable issue. As an analogy, while it is impossible to predict
the age at which any particular man will die, we can say with high confidence that the
average age of death for men in industrialised countries is about 75. Another common
confusion of these issues is thinking that a cold winter or a cooling spot on the globe is
evidence against global warming. There are always extremes of hot and cold, although their
frequency and intensity change as climate changes. But when weather is averaged over space
and time, the fact that the globe is warming emerges clearly from the data.
Meteorologists put a great deal of effort into observing, understanding and predicting the dayto-day evolution of weather systems. Using physics-based concepts that govern how the
atmosphere moves, warms, cools, rains, snows, and evaporates water, meteorologists are
typically able to predict the weather successfully several days into the future. A major
limiting factor to the predictability of weather beyond several days is a fundamental
dynamical property of the atmosphere. In the 1960s, meteorologist Edward Lorenz
discovered that very slight differences in initial conditions can produce very different forecast
results.
This is the so-called butterfly effect: a butterfly flapping its wings (or some other small
phenomenon) in one place can, in principle, alter the subsequent weather pattern in a distant
place. At the core of this effect is chaos theory, which deals with how small changes in
certain variables can cause apparent randomness in complex systems.
Nevertheless, chaos theory does not imply a total lack of order. For example, slightly
different conditions early in its history might alter the day a storm system would arrive or the
exact path it would take, but the average temperature and precipitation (that is, climate)
would still be about the same for that region and that period of time. Because a significant
problem facing weather forecasting is knowing all the conditions at the start of the forecast
period, it can be useful to think of climate as dealing with the background conditions for
weather. More precisely, climate can be viewed as concerning the status of the entire Earth
system, including the atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things (see Figure) that
serve as the global background conditions that determine weather patterns. An example of
this would be an El Nio affecting the weather in coastal Peru. The El Nio sets limits on the
probable evolution of weather patterns that random effects can produce. A La Nia would set
different limits.

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Schematic view of the components of climate system, their interactions (Adapted from IPCC AR4)

Another example is found in the familiar contrast between summer and winter. The march of
the seasons is due to changes in the geographical patterns of energy absorbed and radiated
away by the Earth system. Likewise, projections of future climate are shaped by fundamental
changes in heat energy in the Earth system, in particular the increasing intensity of the
greenhouse effect that traps heat near Earths surface, determined by the amount of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Projecting changes in climate due to
changes in greenhouse gases 50 years from now is a very different and much more easily
solved problem than forecasting weather patterns just weeks from now. To put it another
way, long-term variations brought about by changes in the composition of the atmosphere are
much more predictable than individual weather events. As an example, while we cannot
predict the outcome of a single coin toss or roll of the dice, we can predict the statistical
behaviour of a large number of such trials.
While many factors continue to influence climate, scientists have determined that human
activities have become a dominant force, and are responsible for most of the warming
observed over the past 50 years. Human-caused climate change has resulted primarily from
changes in the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but also from changes in
small particles (aerosols), as well as from changes in land use, for example. As climate
changes, the probabilities of certain types of weather events are affected. For example, as
Earths average temperature has increased, some weather phenomena have become more
frequent and intense (e.g., heat waves and heavy downpours), while others have become less
frequent and intense (e.g., extreme cold events).

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Past Emissions have already committed us to some climate change

The climate does not respond immediately to emissions. It will therefore continue to change
for hundreds of years even if GHG emissions are reduced and atmospheric levels stop rising.

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