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Company Profile
1 Brief introduction of the company
2 Business detail:
(i) Demand Side Economics
(ii) Supply Side Economics
3
Investment Summary:
Investment Thesis
Moat Points
Investment Rationale
Concern
rt:
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(Link)
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Merger
Things to check
1 S.No.
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Promoters' Holding
Dividend yield
PAT (Rs. Cr.)
P/E
5
6
7
8
Margin of Safety
Debt
PAT Margin
ROE
Mkt Cap (Rs. Cr.)
#DIV/0!
0.00
List
Buy Back Offer
Merger
Demerger
Delisting
Voluntary Delisting
Open Offer
Offer For Sale (OFS)
DCF model
CFO In FY- 13
Reject if
Less than 40%
No Dividend Yield
Average of last 2 yrs. PAT is -ve.
Greater than 20
No margin of safety in DCF model
in 1st cut (check for 3 years)
High debt
PAT Margin is less than 3%
CFO in FY - 12
CFO In FY-11
Average CFO
Discount Rate
Enterprise value
Total Debt
cash+Other Current Assets
Equity Value
No. of shares
EQ Value per share
Current market price
Margin of safety
#DIV/0!
0.12
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Indian Companies
Overseas Companies
Price Comfort
CMP(With date)
52 WEEK HIGH(Date)
52 WEEK LOW (Date)
2008-09 Low Price
Last six month Avg. Closing Price
Last Three Month Avg. Closing Price
Recent MF buying activity
Valuation Comfort
DCF Valuation
1
CFO In FY- 13
CFO In FY- 12
CFO in FY - 11
Average CFO
Discount Rate
Enterprise value
Total Debt
cash+Other Current Assets
Equity Value
No. of shares
EQ Value per share
Current market price
Margin of safety
Multiples
(a)
(b)
(c)
Investment Bargain
Total Asset/ No of Shares
Investment Bargain
Cash Bargain
Year End
Cash and Bank
Other Current Assets
Secured Loans
Unsecured Loans
Total Debts
Net
Cash
Position
Net
Cash
Position (Excluding Other current
Assets)
Notice point for Cash Bargain:
Cash bargain means stock is available at a price less than Net Cash (Cash & Bank minus Debt) available per share
In case of cash bargain there are few reasons that can go against our investment idea, these are:
a) Cash Burn: Maybe the operating business is losing money and cash will be dissipated
b) Corporate mis-governance: What if the promoters of the company are well-entrenched because they have a 70%
wealth of the company with the minority investors?
They pay no dividends, and will never liquidate the company.Then what the
c) Bubble market: When the markets are frothy, people desperately looking for value gravitate towards cash bargains b
that when the markets decline, these stocks will also decline, often by much more than th
Investments
What are these investments? (Is it in significant ammount(as % of Net sales)
Are they marketable securities?
Are they money parked in debt mutual funds?
Are they surplus to the needs of the business?
Are investments earns interest as other income?
Current Ratio(x)
Interest Cover(x)
Financial analysis
1
Great businesses are much more likely to have the winning combination of:
(a) being debt-free;
(b) being cash rich; and
(c) with a negative working capital
Segmental Finance
Description
Revenue From Operations(Total)
Segment-1 revenue
As a % of sales
Segment-2 revenue
As a % of sales
1.)
2.)
3.)
4.)
5.)
6.)
Peer Analysis
Sample format you can use to draw comparative chart
PEER COMPARISON
LTP
52 W H/L
Net Sales
Market Cap
EBITDA Margin(%)
PAT
PAT Margin(%)
Gearing
TTM EPS
TTM P/E
TTM P/BV
ROCE(%)
ROE(%)
EV/EBITDA
EV/ Net Sales
M cap / Sales
Link
Link
71
84(18/12/2012)
50(25/03/2013)
Use ace equity to find this. If it is a recently incorporated company then find all time low price
DCF Valuation
Take last three years operating cash flow, if CFO is negative, its a highly
negative trait and potentially should be rejected in 1st cut process only. If
you find high fluctuation in CFO instead of a trend, then take more than 3
yrs. CFO to get better average estimation
Take average of above taken CFOs
12%
#VALUE!
X
Y
#VALUE!
Z
#VALUE!
See last closng price/current price
#VALUE!
Cash (Cash & Bank minus Debt) available per share. Sounds impressive but in reality it may not.
inst our investment idea, these are:
s is losing money and cash will be dissipated away in just a few quarters.
e company are well-entrenched because they have a 70% stake, and they have no intention of sharing the
h of the company with the minority investors?
dends, and will never liquidate the company.Then what the company owns is irrelevant for minority investors.
rately looking for value gravitate towards cash bargains because they are evidently cheap. History shows
, these stocks will also decline, often by much more than the market.
When capital turnover ratio is high, the company can afford to have a low margin, and still deliver an
exceptional return on capital. (ROE= NI/Sales(Margin) * Sales/Capital(turnover))
Companies with negative working capital may lack the funds necessary for growth.
g combination of:
Any other reason for Negative WC like company running out of cash- is a negative signal
Check if there is any pledged shares by promoters in BSE india under shareholding pattern section.
High level of debt along with pledged promoter's holding is a deadly combination
Mar-12
Mar-11
sayaji hotels
rgin, lower growth but higher capex, question should be arised on Capital allocation issue.
PEER COMPARISON
Subject company
Comparables-2
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
Mar-05
Mar-04
Mar-03
Mar-02
n issue.
Comparables-3
pricing power
Sales Amount
YOY growth
Sales Qty
YOY growth
Sales Per Unit(Unit Curr)
YOY growth
Raw Material price
YOY growth
EBIT Margin(%)
YOY growth
Return on business
Dupont decomposition
Notes
1
2
3
4
NOPAT(EBIT-Tax)
Invested Capital (Debt + Equity or Networth )
Excess cash (Cash+OCA+ S.T. Inv.)
ROIC = NOPAT / (Invested capital-Excess cash)
Note:
Note:
Minimum interest coverage ratio should 2x.
Minimum Debt service coverage ratio(DSCR) should be
Increase in PAT should be in sync with growth in Cash Flow (Ad
NICFOR stands for Net Income to CFO ratio. Lower the earnin
NICFOR can be used to find P/E multiple based on cash flow
if a firm has latest PE of 10x and NICFOR of 1.5x this m
Similarly if the same firm had a NICFOR of 0.7x that me
NICFOR is earrning quality ratio
(f) Cash Ebitda ratio is CFO before interest and tax. (Cash EBITD
In Indian A/C system CFO is already before Interest, we only
(a)
(b)
( C)
(d)
(e)
(C)
(D)
(E)
(F)
Regulatory Issues
Barriers to Entry
Future Outlook
Sector Specific
Eg:- IGL
Muthoot Finance
High/Low/Medium
Reason
Mgmt vs Street
201103
201003
200903 200803 200703
16%
102.12
81.71
77.77
65.39
56.41
25%
5%
19%
16%
17%
4%
###
###
###
###
###
#VALUE!
-10%
13%
20%
3%
-4%
12%
912.06
657.05
707.3
714.11
636.28
62%
39%
-7%
-1%
12%
22%
You need to check rise in price of raw materials and whether this rise has been followeed
You need to compare that if sales grows- and ebit margin remain stable or growing with sales then it i
if sales is growing but ebit margin is decreasing it may signal that company is compromising with m
grow sales.
Asset side
Financial Assets
Operating Assets(balancing figures)
Total Assets
If Current liabilities are greater than current assets (negative working capital)
Eg: Trade payables are more than inventory+receivables
If
Netfloat
operating
is negative
Here
exceedsasset
investment
in inventories, receivables, and fixed
assets
In the above table Float figure is more than Ope
and Low 'Days of working Capital' can be result of high moat power of the company.
(a) Brand value (customer recognition is very high)
(b) Trade restriction (Licence, patent contract etc.)
High Entry and Exit barrier (like high capex- both one time and regular)
Ex:- If maintenance capex is high, company has to achieve a particular level of market share to sustai
t few years:
(a) Can they sustain the high return for an extended period of time?
(b) How much of the profits are they retaining/ploughing back into the business?
Eps=Earning/No.of shares
2012
2011
30%
20%
2
1.5
2.5
2
3
2.5
4.5
1.5
2010
10%
1
1.5
2
0.3
a good signal of stable business because as margins increases, competitors will enter the market and margins w
good signal of long term growing stable business as there is a limit on this ratio, a company can utilise its asset
ncreasing year over year that means company is borrowing money and investing in assets, which means Debt/E
is ratio is increasing year on year and contributing maximum in the rise of EPS (among all the four
ital) breakdown:
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
cratic differences in capital structure and tax rates across companies and industries
FY-12
FY_11
FY-10
quality ratio
FY-09
FY-08
dup in their finished goods which leads me to believe that the company is not really efficient in managing customer demand.
eck whether interest is easily covered by its earnings for now or not. we need to keep a watch on this figure. If it jumps again, we
turnover"(ROCE) and "average profit margins". This trend should not be dropping in last 3 years.
Ratio is a signal that earnings are for real and the management genuine.
Answer to this section would be subjective, you may get help from broker's report or by reading else where to make your view.
You need to see that what management is saying about growth prospect of business(check MD&A or
Chairman's Speech or any other company generated material available on the company website.)
vis--vis What analyst expects for the business future(check research reports)
200603 200503
48.27
20.94
131%
###
###
123%
523.42
505.92
3%
s been followeed by rise in product price or not.
g customer demand.
e. If it jumps again, we have a cause for concern.
s increasing the value to its shareholder by retaining money, its nothing but the Book value per sh
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Compute increase in market cap over the last 10 years. (Delta MC)
Step 5
Interpretation:
It tells us , that for every Rs 1 earned & retained inside the firm , how much
period. (ER)
(d)
What has management done with the free cash in the past?
Is the management known for its capital allocation skill and integrity?
Trend of ROE can give us signal about this and any past news or event about management
board composition.
The best practice to follow is to
separate the CEO and Chairman position.
The audit committee should only include the
independent board of directors and must meet the
auditors
of the
least
once annually.
Attendance
of company
Director inatthe
AGM/EGM
should be
high
The members of Board of directors should not
serve on more than two or three boards.
General Checklist
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Is the management putting cash in other non core areas which has no releva
10 What is the % of non core income (other than operations). Is it more than 10
11 Is the management lending excess cash to sister firms via loans and advanc
9
Sno
Attributes
1 Evasive managers
4 Egotism
Sudden resignations of directors or key
5 operating staf
6 Media leaks
14 Litigious by nature
15 Poor board attendance
16 Loyalty bonuses
17 Poor Diversification
18 Exorbitant remuneration
Lack of industry experience at board
19 level
orate Governance
www.watchoutinvestors.com. Www.ingovern.in, www.iias.com
If in 1st cut we find that some shares are pledged, in 2nd cut we need to search and find timing of pledging of those shares.
so that we can calculate pledged amount, margin call probability etc. by using price at that time.
Dividend
oo high?
profit not with that of other companies
ors is when the company raises more money in the future via warrants or FCCBs, this could lead to dilution in the equity, and th
Remark
ership means that the company is well researched and prima facie management concerns are not ther
t is within the family or outside?
he top Brass.
sh in other non core areas which has no relevance to the core biz ?
ome (other than operations). Is it more than 10%, does it look fishy ?
xcess cash to sister firms via loans and advance, sometime even
Blather has become a fine art in the corporate world but plain
speaking is a quality to look for. Good managers tend to speak
openly about failure. Questionable management try and change
the subject or disguise the truth in a shower of jargon.
Money passing between a company and one of the directors'
private interests is always a concern. How can a manager claim to
have your best interests at heart when they're personally
benefiting from the transaction?
We prefer managers that talk the share price down. It's a good
indicator of integrity. Managers who make unrealistic promises are
likely to do rash things trying to live up to them.
Gargantuan egos are a prerequisite for climbing the corporate
ladder. But they are also a source of many a company's problems.
Examples of aggressive takeovers, boardroom disharmony, lavish
options packages, secrecy and the many Machiavellian traits that
accompany the power mad are all too common.
When 'insiders' leave in strange circumstances, especially the
CFO, it can be a hint of more serious future problems.
Seeing dirty linen dragged through the press by one of the
directors is a sure sign that things aren't rosy at board level.
idend etc).
ul on small investors.
1.)
2.)
3.)
Does the company face intense competition in its segment from some new competitor ?
Does the industry have a history of intense competition in the past ?
Does the company operate in a segment which could see severe competition from a large com
Is the company getting impacted or will get impacted by low cost imports ?
how i think market values growth companies. Typically there are four phases:
Phase 1: Growth? Where? - This is the first phase when due to a catalyst unknown to the market a company starts to grow at
historical past. Think about a company like TTK Prestige - this was a no shakes stocks and it hardly moved from 2000 to 2005.
Market was least interested in this stock.
Phase 2: Growth? Meh. - But then suddenly it started growing much faster from 2005 onwards - thanks to a cut in excise duty
in general. But the market refused to pay much attention to this growth and the stock price moved much in line with the profit gr
price moved from 38 to 130 from 2005 to 2009. A very decent 35% CAGR growth rate - this at a time when stocks like Pantaloo
infrastructure stocks were growing at half that rate but trading at twice the PE. All in all the market gave our stock (TTK Prestige
stock price grew at the rate of earnings growth.
Phase 3: Growth! Wow this could be big -Then came the trigger for the market. After having consistently grown at a decent r
really has something going for it. 2010 turned out to be a bumper year for TTK Prestige since their raw material Aluminium's pri
and the company posted a profit which was two and half times 2009's profit. The market acted promptly and in one year the sto
market had by now figured out this could be a great growth stock. Time for fireworks.This is the best time to get in, if you are
Phase 4: Growth! Lets extrapolate! - The imminent PE re-rating finally happened. This is when the biggest money is made in
by 60% and can you guess how much the price grew? From 430 in 2010 to 1650 in 2011 - that's about 4 times in one year. Sin
more to 2600 in line with a profit increase of about 50%. The market is now expecting TTK Prestige to grow profits at about 40%
high PE till such time that it grows in that range.This is a good time to enter too as long as you think the company still has
years, if not more.
Phase 5: Growth? This Story's over! - Ofcourse a company cannot grow at 40-50% forever - there will come a time when the
will shrug it off expecting the company to bounce back -this is the time to get out when the PEs are still reasonably high bu
of less than anticipated growth the PE will start to contract permanently and will plateau to a level.
This then is the story of every growth company. Some companies remain in phase 1 or phase 2 forever while some jump from p
companies that make the biggest amount of wealth make a smooth transition from phase 2 to 3 to 4 and then onto a bumpy ph
company in
http://www.ibef.org/industry.aspx
Check Industry section- take notice of last updated date.
http://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/sector-info/
In equitymaster- go to research it- then go to Sector info- here you can find sector report on some limited number of sectors.
Parameter
Consumer monopoly or commodity?
Conclusion
Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - R
Source - Buffettology b
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with traditionally high margins. Thus, look for compan
Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly g
circle is to know its boundaries.
Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
generating positive free cash flows.
Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expandin
strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate.
high.
Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses wit
new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that hav
Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. Whe
examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in place.
Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been emplo
Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equit
(16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.
That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested abo
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to maintain current operations, the better. Here, m
Sensible investing is always about using folly and discipline - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wa
implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks s
Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence. Pray!
Company search
Ace
Ace
Company history
High low
close price
BSE
No of Trades Vs. value traded ..if no of trade is small and value traded is high..indicates mgt/instt/fund play
News put in one word document
Bseindia results - notes
will automatically get generated in your template
History of bonuses over last 10 years
History of rights issues over last 10 years
Moneycontrol
Google News
Annual Report
company details
Details of director
google search on name
individual name
Parent's Subsidiary
Management Integrity
Annual report analysis - of company in question plus competitors
Summary of important points from Management discussion and analysis
Future Growth prospects
Demographics
Company Prospectus
subaccounts
http://www.sebi.gov.in/SubAccount.jsp
es Vs. value traded ..if no of trade is small and value traded is high..indicates mgt/instt/fund play
word document
notes
a.com/content/equities/eq_sechistdata.htm
http://news.google.com/
http://sebiedifar.nic.in/
company website
bseindia filing
www.Business-Beacon.com
ashishkila.admin
ministry of company affairs website - login
ng sites
om/siteSearch_bro/sitesearch-more.jsp
com/search?q=usha%20martin%20site%3Acareratings.com&hl=en&lr=&tbo=s&tbs=qdr:y
sesregd.htm
rs profile
rsdatabase.com/t_list.asp?list=master_annex1_today&findword=[1-9,A]
ctors profile
rsdatabase.com/t_list.asp?list=master_annex1_today_ind&findword=[1-9,A]
ditional names
hish -- from kotak site
taksecurities.com/jspprog/newshome.jsp?page=OI
http://www.mca.gov.in/DCAPortalWeb/dca/MyMCALogin.do?method=setDefaultProperty&mode=31
http://mca.gov.in/DCAPortalWeb/dca/MyMCALogin.do?method=setDefaultProperty&mode=39
name
http://www.directorsdatabase.com/t_plist.asp
0.135135
In case of a MNC company find out its Shareholding patten in other Subsidiary's
http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
look for companies with sic code and in similar business
do control-f
Open form 10-K and then open ex21
In the details of Bulk Trading and Insider Trading we may find unknown trader's account, so to check that accounts belongingness we need to refer SEBI website at
v.in/SubAccount.jsp
Website
G Sudhakar
Clerk of Advocate
www.courtnic.nic.in
8802216999