Market situation

Cereals
AGRI C 4
Committee for the Common Organisation
of Agricultural Markets
25 June 2015

Exchange Rates

Euro Dollar exchange rate

01/07/2014
1.3688

1.40
1.35
1.30

-18.1%

1.25
1.20
1.15

1.1204
1.10
1.05

27/05/2015
1.0863

Spot, ECB reference

1.00
04/14 05/14

06/14 07/14 08/14

09/14 10/14 11/14 12/14

01/15 02/15 03/15

04/15 05/15

06/15

Euro and Dollar Russian Rouble exchange rate

85

Source: Thomson Reuters

75

RUB/EUR
65

60.07
55

53.78

45

RUB/USD

35

25
01/13 03/13

05/13

07/13

09/13

11/13

01/14 03/14

05/14

07/14

09/14

11/14

01/15 03/15

05/15

Euro and Dollar - Ukraine Hryvnia exchange rate

37
Source: Thomson Reuters
32

27

24.14

UAH/EUR
22

21.49

17

UAH/USD

12

7
01/13 03/13

05/13

07/13

09/13

11/13

01/14 03/14

05/14

07/14

09/14

11/14

01/15 03/15

05/15

Baltic Dry Index

12000
Baltic Dry Index

23/06/2015: 790

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Cereals Forecasts

World wheat: USDA

500

Mio t

World
Ending Stocks

World Production

722 (719)
730
Mio t

717

of which
8 major exporters

400

716

697
682

726

680

686
697

710
720 (717)

704

690

World Consumption
300

200

670

655

641

650

652

203

199

650

659
199
176

167

190

200

202 (203)

630
610

100
78
60

75

70
51

56

64

62 (62)

590
570

2008
Source: USDA June report

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 est.

2015 proj.

USDA: Wheat production forecast

All wheat
180
Mio t

2011

160

2012

2013

2014 est.

2015 proj.

151

140

120
100
80

58

55

60

40

29

26

23

20

13

12

0
EU

Source: USDA June

Russia

USA

Canada

Ukraine

Australia

Kazakhstan

Argentina

World maize: USDA

400
Mio t

World
Ending Stocks

World Production

991

999

of which US

977
300

823

868

799
200

883

World Consumption

832
197

782

128

133

900

800
195 (192)

175
144

950

850

865

819
149

991 (990)

953

887

850

989 (990)

1050
Mio t
1000

750

135

700

100
650
43

48

43
29

0
2008

2009

2010

25

21

2011

2012

31

45 (44)

600
550

2013

2014 est.

2015 proj.

Source: USDA June report

10

USDA: maize production forecast

Maize
400
2009

Mio t

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 est.

2015 proj.

346

350

300

250

200

150

100

75

68

50

26

25

0
USA
Source: USDA June report

Brazil

EU

Ukraine

Argentine

11

Cereals Prices

12

Market News 1. (25-06-2015)

Russia/Ukraine
- RUS: export tax as from 1 July 2015 = 50% of the price
minus 5,500 RUB ( 90) but min. 50 RUB per tonne
Current prices: 193 $ (fob; 10,200 RUB), inland 171 $ (exw; 9,200 RUB)

- RUS: 14/15 exports at 29.6 Mt of grains (+18%), incl.:

21 Mt of wheat (18.2 Mt); (1 Mt since 15/05 when exp tax cancelled)
5.2 Mt of barley (2.55 Mt) and 2.9 Mt maize

- RUS: 15/16 forecasts: total grains 95-99 Mt, incl. 55-59

Mt wheat and maize at around new record of 11-12 Mt.
- UKR: no plans for administrative exp. limits, instead
memorandum (gov' & traders) on exportable quantity
- UKR: 15/16 f'casts: 57-60 Mt grains, incl. wheat of 22 Mt
13

Market News 2. (25-06-2015)

Russia

RUS wheat export tax 1-07-2015

Exp price (fob) in RUB per tonne
(1 $ 53 RUB; 1 61 RUB)
11000
11100
11200
12000
13000
14000

Price in EUR/t
180
182
184
197
213
230

Export tax = [(wheat price in RUB / 2) - 5500 RUB]

exp duty equals (RUB/t)

50
50
100
500
1000
1500

exp duty in EUR/t

0,8
0,8
1,6
8,2
16,4
24,6

min. 50 RUB per tonne

14

Market News 3. (25-06-2015)

- AUS (15/16): mostly favourable weather for winter crops
Wheat: 23.6 Mt (23.7 Mt last year); exports: 16.5 Mt (16.4 Mt 14/15)
Barley: 8.2 Mt (8.0 Mt); exports: 6.7 Mt

- ARG: 1 Mt wheat approved for exports 14/15 bringing

total to 4.7 Mt. 15/16 wheat area to decrease to 5 M ha.
- BRA: due to favourable conditons safrinha maize crop
estimated at 50-52 Mt, with total put at 80 Mt. Local maize
demand is around 56 Mt and exports are seen to exceed
20 Mt.

15

Market News 4. (25-06-2015)

Maghreb / Iran
- Tunisia: grain production to fall by 40% to 1.4 Mt (2.34
Mt previous year, 1.85 Mt 5-year average). Imports to
reach 2.3 Mt (1 Mt durum, 1.1 Mt wheat)
- Algeria: suspended imp. duties on animal feed until
31/12/2015 incl. maize and soybeans as drought hits grain
crop. 3.4 Mt grain f'cast in 2015.
- Morocco: 75% wheat imp. duty could be extended
beyond 31/10 as good harvest is expected ( 11 Mt grains)
- Egypt: 5.3 Mt local wheat pruchased vs. 3.7 M target
- Iran: 15/16 wheat import to fall sharply (to 1.5-2.0 Mt gov' estimate - from 5 Mt) due to improved local crop
16

Selected cereals trade for the past 4 weeks

Country

Crop

Quantity
(in tonnes)

Price
($/t)

Egypt

wheat

240 000

191 (fob)

Egypt

wheat

60 000

199,5 (c&f)

Egypt

wheat

180 000

192 (fob)

- - 120 000 ROM

- - 60 000 RUS

July

Ethiopia

wheat

400 000

221-222 (c&f)

Possibly Black Sea

Jul-Sept

Tunisia

wheat

92 000

195-199 (c&f)

Optional

Jul-Sept

Origin(s)

Delivery
Date

- 180 000 RUS

- 60 000 ROM

July

RUS

July

17

World cereal prices ($/t)

300

280

$ / tonne

260

240

220

Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 216

Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 201

200

Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 193

Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 177

180

Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 175

160
01/2014

Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ no

03/2014

05/2014

07/2014

09/2014

11/2014

01/2015

03/2015

05/2015

18

CME wheat: open interest and

net position of traders
Last value from: 2015-06-16

0.8

80
Open Interest

Managed money and other rep. - Net positions

Millions of contracts (136 metric tonnes)

40
0.6
20
0.5
0
0.4
- 20
0.3

- 40
0.2

Thousands of contracts (of 136 m etric tonnes)

60

0.7

- 60
0.1

- 80

WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

0.0

- 100

19

US CME SRW wheat futures

350

300

340

JUL 2015 (R)

DEC 2015 (R)

250

300

JUL 2016 (R)

280

200

260

220
100
200
50

180
160
01/13

07/13

01/14

07/14

01/15

210

240

207

220

205

200
200
198

180
160

195

140

192
190

120
100
80

185

60
40

180

20

Chicago (CME) SRW futures

0
07/12

260

$/t

240

150

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)

300

280
320

$/t

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)

Daily volume

215
Last 14 days

Chicago (CME) SRW futures

0
10/06/15
14/06/15
18/06/15

175
22/06/15

20

US KCBT HRW wheat futures

55

320

JUL 2015 (R)

DEC 2015 (R)
60

300

JUL 2016 (R)

280

40
240
220
20

200
180

225
Last 14 days

50

220

45

216
215

40
210

35
30

205
205

25

200

20

$/t

260

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)

340
Daily Volume

$/t

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)

80

195
195

15

190
10
185

Kansas (KCBT) HRW Futures

0
07/13

160
01/14

07/14

01/15

0
10/06/15

180
14/06/15

18/06/15

22/06/15

21

EU Milling Wheat Futures

220

100

80

200

40

180

20
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF Paris) milling w heat futures
0
07/13

160
01/14

07/14

01/15

60

194
Last 14 days
192
191

55
50

188
188

45
40

185
185

35

/t

60

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)

65

Daily Volume
SEP 2015 (R)
MAR 2016 (R)
SEP 2016 (R)

/t

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)

120

30

182

25
20

179

15
10

176

5
0
10/06/15

173
16/06/15

22/06/15

22

World maize export prices (fob, US$ per tonne)

quotation in or $ / tonne

325

275

225

US 3YC Gulf - $ 177

AR Feed Up River - $ 169
175

Black Sea Feed - $ 174

BR Feed Paranagua - $ 173

125

23

CME maize: open interest and

positions of traders

Last value: 2015-06-16

3.0

500
Open Interest

300
2.0

200
1.5
100

1.0
0

0.5

Thousands of contracts (of 127 m etric tonnes)

400

2.5
Millions of contracts (127 metric tonnes)

Managed money and other rep. - Net positions

- 100

CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

0.0

- 200

24

CME maize futures

250

225
480

320
175

160

150
Chicago (CME) Maize futures

0
11/12

125
05/13

11/13

05/14

11/14

05/15

700

165
Last 14 days

650

160
160

600
550
500

155

450
150
150

400

$/t

200

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes)

640

750

275
Daily volume
JUL 2015 (R)
DEC 2015 (R)
JUL 2016 (R)

$/t

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes)

800

350
300
250

145
145

200
150

140

100
50

Chicago (CME) Maize futures

0
10/06/15
14/06/15
18/06/15

135
22/06/15

25

EU maize futures

200

180

160

140

Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures

120
09/13

12/13

03/14

06/14

09/14

12/14

03/15

06/15

9
8

180
176
175

6
5

170
169

/t

0
06/13

185
Last 14 days

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)

10

220
Daily Volume
AUG 2015 (R)
JAN 2016 (R)
AUG 2016 (R)

/t

Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)

10

4
3
2

165
164

160

1
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures
0
10/06/15
16/06/15
22/06/15

155

26

EU Commitments 2014/2015 (52 weeks)

Imports: 15.1 mio t (18.1 mio t last year; 16.4 mio t two years ago)
3.1 mio t soft wheat
2.7 mio t durum wheat
9.1 mio t maize
76 000 t barley
Exports: 45.7 mio t (38.2 mio t last year; 27.9 mio t two years ago)
32.1 mio t soft wheat
8.7 mio t barley
1.0 mio t durum wheat
3.6 mio t maize
So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 30.6 mio t,
against 20.1 mio t last year and 11.5 mio t two years
27

Conclusions
- Cereals prices firmed on weather concerns (heavy rains in
US, dryness in Western EU and Canada)
- Black Sea is now the cheapest origin for wheat
- RUS: wheat export tax on 1-07-2015
- USDA 15/16 forecast: higher wheat, stable maize vs. May
- Import demand might decrease in some key EU wheat
export destinations (e.g. Iran)

28

Thank you for your attention!

Balance sheet updates & market presentation

available:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balancesheets/index_en.htm

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