Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
increasing to 15million tons in 2006. All of these shipments will be made by rail.
However, this agreement was overshadowed by talks concerning the construction of
an oil pipeline from Siberia to northern China. Russia has been pondering an oil
pipeline to China for nearly 10years. In 2002, plans for this pipeline received a boost
when Moscow pledged to invest $2billion in an oil pipeline running from the Siberian
city of Angarsk to Daqing in northeastern China. At the end og 2004, Russian
officials announced that rather than running into China, the new mega pipeline
would terminate in Russias pacfic port of Nakhodka. Japan lobbied Moscow hard for
this configuration, offering to finance the entire construction project, the cost of
which is estimated to exceed $10billion. In addition to a readily available financing
source, the Nakhodka pipeline will remain entirely in Russian territory, allowing
Moscow complete control over the oil flow. Many analysts view Moscows decision as
a blow to relations with China. Though the pipeline does not terminate in China, it
does pass within 40miles of Russians border with China. A spur from this pipeline to
China would be inexpensive, while further diversifying the market for annual oil
flows expected to reach 80million tons. In other words, why should either Moscow or
Beijing finance an eastern oil pipeline when Tokyo is bending over backwards to
provide such financing?
Relations with Russia are not more important than those with other countries in
helping China to achieve its global power status. China has to work also with major
international institution like the UN and global power like the USA. Is China a great
power in helping to maintain world order? A great power, according to Hedley Bulls
classic 1977work, the Anarchical Society, belongs to a society of states that
maintains a balance of power to prevent a global dictatorship emerging through
imperial conquest. Besides the balancing of power in maintaining this socially
constructed system, great powers also engage in the order preserving mechanisms
of international law, diplomacy, concerting, and war when it acts to preserve the
system rather than destroys it. As a member of the UN SC, the PRC belongs to the
elite club of recognized great powers. It is involved in more than 1000 international
governmental organizations that deal with issues ranging from drug trafficking to
the environment; and it is an ardent supporter of the UN and international law,
warning against the exercise of military power when peaceful methods of diplomacy
ought to be given greater scope for realization. This was especially notable with
regard to Chinas reaction to American military interventions in the post-Cold war
era, indicating Chinas understanding of the need for great powers to critique one
another in the interests of a balance state system. Even with the collapse of the
Cold War structure, and the clear military and economic superiority that now rests
with the remaining superpower, the US still supports the prevailing state system
and is sensitive to balance-of-power as well as concerting behavior. Thus China may
continue to exercise its role of superpower critic as the need arises. China is not
alone in its balancing efforts, as the failure of the US to gain UN support for its war
on Iraq in 2003 demonstrated. In this sense, the EU and its member states, Russia
and others act as both a concerting and balancing force. China, too, acted in
concert with the US in its campaigning against state-defying terrorism. But
alongside other states, including France, Germany, Russia and Turkey, it opposed
the US war on Iraq. Even though the US went ahead regardless, she still turned to
the UN to gain a mandate to continue in the aftermath of the war and to involve
other nations. Therefore, it is seen that the achieving global power status,
multilateral cooperation and support from other countries, including the UN is
crucial. Chinas consolidation of tis role as a great power in a soverign state system
was evident in its assiduous cultivation of diplomatic relations with a host of nations
and regions. Of interest are its more positive relations with traditional rivals Russia
and India. With the former it is engaged bilaterally in a strategic partnership that
has developed into a Treaty on Good Neighbourly Friendship and Cooperation
(2001), and the stablishment of a mechanism of bilateral security consultations
(2005) inclusive of joint military exercises- the first being planned for August 2005,
as well as multilaterally through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. With the
latter, now a nuclear power in its own right, China has not only worked to dispel
threat perceptions but also supports India as a candidate for a permanent seat on
the UN Security Council. According to Chinese State COuncillor Tang Jianxuan,
during his visit to India in October 2004: India is a major country in Asia China
fully understands Indias position and endorses its aspirations We also hope to see
India play a greater and constructive role in the UN Security Council. Also of
consequence is Chinas interest in promoting peace on the Korean peninsula
through its hosting of the Sic-Party Talks on prevent the nuclearisation of the Korean
peninsula, and a planned common economic future with Southeast Asia. The end of
this decade will see the emergence of a regional free trade agreement between
China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Tariffs are to be
reduced to between 5% and zero and investment barriers removed. This trade
region will create an integrated market of 1.7billion people, forming what will
become the worlds most populous free trade zone. At the same time, China has
committed itself to a code of good conduct over the contested ownership of seabed
resources in the South China Sea. It is evident that China as a strong advocate of
multi-polarity and multilateralism will need to establish cordial relations with many
countries to establish her global power status. However, Chinas support for the UN
and the act of balancing of power remain ambiguous and dubious. In the case of
genocide in Sudan in 2007-2008, China did not support the UNs resolution to
condemn and impose harsh sanctions on Sudan. Instead, China quoted her principle
of non-interference when she helped Sudan with arm supplies and monetary aid in
the civil war. This was because Sudan has become Chinas new oil source. In the
case of North Koreas sabre-rattling in 2009 when it tested and fired missiles over
the Korean Peninsula in defiance of UNs resolutions and sanctions, China supported
the UN but critics maintain doubts of how far China would enforce UN harsh
sanctions. China does not want to push her ally, North Korea to the brink of war for
fear of destabilizing her northeast region i.e. outpour of Korean refugees across
Chinese border and the induction of American and western forces into the Chinese
border. China would still like to keep a belligerent North Korea as a bargaining chip
with USA over the Taiwan Issue. Chinas sponsor of the SCO is still viewed as her
attempt to rival the USA-led NATO and has contributed to the on-going mutual
suspicion between her and USA. Chinas intervention in Sri Lanka (2009) and its
visibly dismounting pleasure with the regimes in North Korea and Myanmar, suggest
the calculus behind Chinas emerging national strategy, that is, to keep Chinas long
border peaceful and sea lanes through which she passes, safe for her economic
growth vital to peace and stability at home. In the 1990s, China sought to mask its
peaceful rise behind a smile diplomacy meant to ensure that its neighbours, like
ASEAN did not fear it. China lowered trade barriers and offered soft loans and
investments to help its southern neighbours. China seeks to shape the diplomatic
agenda in order to increase her options while constricting those of potential
adversaries. This informal web is being engineered not only to keep its rivals from
coalescing with each other or gaining privileged influence in the region, but also to
restrain the actions of Chinas partners, like ASEAN, so as to dampen tension
anywhere it might flare up. Thus all these actions would have run counter to global
powers responsibility of maintaining careful balancing of national interest with
international peace and law and order. Is China a military and nuclear power? China
is emerging as a major global power and will acquire formidable economic and
military capabilities in the first few decades of the 21 st century. Its growing economy
is expected to overtake the US economy between 2020 and 2050. Its strategy of
four modernizations formally adopted in 1978, is bearing fruit and it leading to
fairly rapid, though regionally skewed, development and modernization, including of
the armed forces. In recent years, the Chinese have stressed the need for
comprehensive national strength in determining the countrys role in international
affairs. Their concept of national defense is no longer limited merely to the defense
of territory but has been expanded to include the seaboard and outerspace. The
erstwhile strategy of coastal defense has been concerted to the strategy of
Oceanic Offensive The emphasis on bolstering naval and air forces stems away
from Chinas shores. However, China recently views India as a possible strategic
partner in offsetting the American superpower status. India and China have recently
agreed to work towards a constructive and cooperative relationship while continuing
to address outstanding differences. The two countries also share the assessment
that friendly and good neighbourly relations between India and China best serve the
fundamental interests of the 1996, during President Jiang Zemins visit, the
2countries signed a new agreement on Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) along
the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as a sequel to the Agreement on the Maintenance
of Border Peace and Tranquility (BPTA) signed at Beijing in September 1993 which is
arguably, the first real arms control agreement in Asia. The 1996 CBMs agreement
agreement stipulates mutual restrictions on troop and weapon deployments, Army
field exercises in the proximity of the LAC. 3 other agreements were also signed on
the Maintenance of Indias Consular Establishment in Hong Kong, Cooperation in
Combatting Illicit Drug Trafficking and Other Major Crimes and on Maritime
Transport. Prospects of cooperation in Central Asia were also discussed. China
softened its stand on the Kashmir issue to one of neutrality between India and
Pakistan and expressed guarded support for Indias endeavor for a permanent seat
in an expanded UN Security Council. India conveyed its concern regarding the
Chinese sale of missiles and other weapons to Parkistan and Chinas assistance in
Pakistans nuclear and missile development program. It is pertinent to argue that
China, in achieving global power status has indeed gone global in seeking
assistance and cooperation. India is equally important too. However, it is not secret
that the PLA still lags behind the American military force in arms and technology.
While the Americans have sent reockets and landed on the moon way back in the
1960s, the Chinese have only managed to send up a few into outer space and circle
the moon a couple of times in 2005-2008. Its 2.8 million person army is the worlds
largest but is poorly trained and equipped. Its 8500tanks are slow, small and out-ofdate. The 4000fighter planes in the Chinese air force are mostly from the 1960s and
1970s and lack modern avionics. Its navys 61submarinies and 54surface ships are
capable of little more than coastal patrols. Its a very large military. Its a very old
military, says Tom McNaughter, a China analyst for the Rand Corp. In fact, 2
scholars recently referred to it as the worlds largest military museum. The US
military believes China is focused more on holding its ground closer to home. They
dont want Taiwan to go independent. They have claims in the South China Sea, and
they have to have a force that will put teeth into those claims, Montaperto, an
American scholar, said. Chinas long term goal may be to someday challenge US
superioritybut the reality is that the US is the 800pound gorilla in Asia and the
Pacific, while China remains a superpower wannabe. In spite of warming relations
with India, the latter still views China with suspicion, a legacy of the Sino-Indian
border wars in the 1960s, conveyed its concerns regarding the Chinese sale of
missiles and other weapons to Pakistan and Chinas assistance in Pakistans nuclear
and missile development program. With regard to the China threat theory, the fear
is that China will grow into a nuclear superpower. China has its armory of over
30ICBMs, 110IRBM as well as its submarine-launch missile capability. While this
nuclear force is by no means comparable to that of the US which has over a
thousand nuclear missiles, or Russia with its 635ICBMs, and its newly announced
plan for nuclear modernization, Chinas nuclear force does not bestow it the
prestige and deterrent power sought by others in recent timesincluding India,
Pakistan and even North Korea in its formative stages of becoming a nuclear power.
It is evidently clear tat other than Russia, China must also maintain cordial relations
with the USA. More so, as the Chinese and the Americans have large vested
economic interests in each others market. It may be argued that with its minimal
deterrent force China is hardly a nuclear superpower to be taken seriously. On the
other hand, China dies have global reachhow many nuclear warheads are needed
to constitute a threat and to be deemed a credible detterent? Moreover, Chinas
nuclear arsenal is not deisgned to compete (as occurred during the Cold War
between the USSR and US in the accumulation of ever greater numbers and
sophistication of nuclear warheads and delievery systems), but to deter threats to
China. It does not have a strategic alliance system to defend or an umbrella under
which allies shelter as is the case with the US and its defence partners. But being a
nuclear superpower does arouse the fear of a China Threat coined by the USA. It
is no scret that China alone cannot withstand the USA, nuclear or otherwise. In
respect, China needs Russia, another superpower. But in a multi-polar world today,
it may not necessarily be a clash between China and the USA. Furthermore, in
pursuit of global power status, legitimacy is vital and in this pursuit, American
recognition is paramount. One must not forget that is was with American approval
that China became one of the five Security Council members in the UN. It was also
with American approval that China became a member of the WTO in 2001. Today
China is also a member of the IMF and the World Bank both of which are dominated
by the USA. China is therefore unlikely to clash with the USA and therefore may not
need Russias nuclear assistance.
In conclusion, in the current age of globalization, bilateral relations must give way to
multilateral relations or multilateralism and hence there is no meaning in Chinas
relations with Russia as more important than the others in the Chinese quest for
achieving global power status. China must equally maintain cordial relations with
other UN and global powers and neigbouring countries in order to achieve global
power status. In asserting that Russia is more important than other countries, the
presumption is that China needs the former to counter the USA. This is not
necessarily so as the USAs recognition of China as a global player and hence global
power is no less important.