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EQUITY REPORT Telefnica

July 2015
Market Profile
Share Price (20/07/2015)
52-Week Price Range ()
Outstanding Shares (mn)
Market Cap. (mn)
Free Float (%)

15.13
10.64 13.95
4,938.42
68,002
2.26

Source: Reuters

Stock Performance
20

10
5

8000
6000
4000

IBEX 35

2000
Apr-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

May-14

networks, and innovative portfolio of digital solutions,


Telefnica is transforming itself into a Digital Telco, a company

10000

Telefonica

customers. With its best in class mobile, fixed and broadband


0

12000

IBEX

Mar-15

in the world in terms of market capitalization and number of

15

Jan-15

Telefnica is one of the largest telecommunications companies

14000

Telefonica
IBEX 35

Feb-15

Business

that will be even better placed to meet the needs of its


Source: Company Data

customers and capture new revenue growth.


The company has a significant presence in 21 countries and a
customer base that amounts more than 341 million accesses
around the world. Telefnica has a strong presence in Spain,

Stock Performance
80

BT Group PLC

70
60

BT Group PLC

Europe and Latin America, where the company focuses an

50

Vodafone

important part of its growth strategy.

30

40
20

Telefnica is a 100% listed company, with 1.5 million direct


shareholders. Its capital is traded on the continuous market on

10
0

America Movil

Vodafone

America Movil
Telefonica

the Spanish Stock Exchanges (Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao and


Source: Company Data

Valencia) and on those of London, New York, Lima and Buenos

Revenues vs Spanish GDP (%)

Aires.
The companys main brands, with worldwide recognition, are
Telefnica, Movistar, O2 and Vivo.

10,00%
5,00%
0,00%

Value per share: 15,97

-5,00%
-10,00%

Revenues
GDP

-15,00%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Company Data

Corporate Finance Department | fepfinanceclub@gmail.com| www.fep.up.pt/skillsacademy/fepfinanceclub/

EQUITY REPORT Telefnica


July 2015
2012
129,78

2013
118,86

2014
122,30

2015F
121,85

2016F
116,48

2017F
118,43

2018F
120,34

2019F
122,24

WACC

8.98%

Goodwill

27,96

23,43

25,11

25,11

25,11

25,11

25,11

25,11

Beta

1.2

Intangible

22,08

18,55

22,35

22,35

22,35

22,35

22,35

22,35

Equity Market Premium

7%

Fixed Assets

35,02

31,04

33,34

33,34

27,76

29,50

31,25

33,00

Risk Free Rate

3.17%

Net Financials

13,68

12,32

13,51

13,51

13,51

13,51

13,51

13,51

D/V

33%

Inventory

1,19

0,99

0,93

0,92

0,96

1,01

1,05

1,09

Recievables

10,71

9,64

10,61

10,71

10,88

11,04

11,16

11,27

Kd

4.92%

Cash and Equivalents

9,85

9,98

6,53

6,00

6,00

6,00

6,00

6,00

Ke

11.58%

Others

9,29

12,92

9,91

9,91

9,91

9,91

9,91

9,91

Equity

27,66

27,48

30,29

31,68

35,91

39,20

42,60

46,00

Total Liabilities

102,11

91,38

92,01

90,17

80,56

79,23

77,74

76,24

M/L Liabilities

70,6

62,23

62,31

59,48

56,73

53,98

51,22

48,46

M/L term Debt

56,61

51,17

50,69

48,55

46,41

44,28

42,14

40,00

M/L others

13,99

11,06

11,62

10,93

10,31

9,70

9,08

8,46

S Liabilities

31,52

29,15

29,69

30,69

23,85

25,25

26,52

27,78

S Debt

10,25

9,53

9,09

10,69

3,51

4,60

5,63

6,65

Payables

4,18

4,40

3,66

3,66

3,66

3,66

3,66

3,66

Others

17,09

15,22

16,94

16,34

16,68

16,99

17,23

17,47

Inc. Statement (th M)


Revenues

2012
62,36

2013
57,06

2014
50,38

2015F
51,99

2016F
54,07

2017F
56,19

2018F
58,15

2019F
60,20

Operational Costs

(41,13)

(37,98)

(34,86)

(35,23)

(35,23)

(37,80)

(38,93)

(40,12)

EBITDA
Margin

21,23
34,0%

19,08
33,4%

15,52
30,8%

16,76
32,2%

18,84
34,8%

18,39
32,7%

19,22
33,1%

20,08
33,4%

Depreciations

(10,43)

(9,63)

(8,55)

(8,74)

(8,04)

(8,50)

(8,97)

(9,45)

EBIT

10,80
17,3%

9,45
16,6%

6,97
13,8%

8,02
15,4%

10,8
20%

9,89
17,6%

10,25
17,6%

10,63
17,7%

Share of profit (loss) of


investment
Financial Operations

(1,28)

(0,30)

(0,51)

(3,66)

(2,87)

(2,82)

(3,79)

(2,80)

(2,48)

(2,16)

(1,85)

EBT

5,86

6,28

3,64

4,23

7,41

8,09

8,78

Taxes

(1,46)

(1,31)

(0,38)

(0,58)

(1,31)

(1,43)

(1,79)

(2,20)

Net Profit

4,40

4,97

3,25

3,65

6,69

5,98

6,30

6,58

Margin

Multiples

Source: Reuters, Yahoo Finance

Margins
30

50%

25

40%

20

30%

15
20%

10
5

10%

0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

Imparities

Table 1 - WACC for Telefnica


(long term), group estimates.

in thousand

Balance Sheet (th M)


Total Assets

EBITDA (M)

EBITDA Mg

News

Telefonica finalizes 10bn


sale of O2 mobile phone firm
(source: BBC News);
Telefonica Brazil to Raise
$4.9 Billion to Fund GVT
Acquisition (source:
Bloomberg)

Corporate Finance Department | fepfinanceclub@gmail.com| www.fep.up.pt/skillsacademy/fepfinanceclub/