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The choice of Kharkov - 2015: Risks and Opportunities

09/04/2015 - 9:00

"Neither of which the transfer of not talking, though not wait. In the same way as I did with the parliamentary elections, just as it will be
with the local elections, as the only carrier power in the state is the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian citizen. "
Poroshenko, April 2, 2015

Ukrainian President outlined his position very clearly - 25 October 2015 in the country to be held the next local elections.One of the
most debated issues in the context of preparation for them is the possibility of a rematch pro-Russian forces in the regions of the
South and East of Ukraine. In particular, in the Kharkiv region, which we pay special attention.
The range of estimates on the possible scenarios in the Kharkiv region is extremely broad. Someone foresees a total victory exregionals, someone predicts the change of local elites.
In our opinion, at this point it makes sense to speak not so much about the projections as trends and factors that may influence the
choice of Kharkiv. On the basis of these, we can isolate the most significant threats and take measures to neutralize them.

Turnout
The starting point for the analysis is the results of the vote for Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko in 2010. Then Yanukovych
won a landslide victory. In the first round turnout in the Kharkiv region amounted to 64.93%. In the second round with a turnout of
67.16% he received 71.35% of the vote.Yanukovych was supported by 1 million. 77 thousand. Residents of Kharkiv region. Yulia

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Vladimirovna voted for 338.6 thousand. Harkovchan.

Since turnout in national campaigns in the region declined. In 2012, Parliament elected 53.08% of Kharkiv. President of Ukraine in
2014 - 47.9%, the Verkhovna Rada - 45.32%.
As a rule, in the presidential elections turnout is higher than in the vote for deputies of different levels. The worst of it is people go to
local elections - in 2010 only 43.3% of the region elected local authorities. And in the city of Kharkov turnout was only 40%.
Therefore, one of the success factors in the autumn of 2015 will be the ability of political parties and candidates to mobilize their
electorate, as well as reduce the appearance opponents.

In the elections of 2014 the picture was very clear. Such a democratic parliament turned largely because voters of the South and East
were disoriented and did not go to vote. This means that the ex-regionals have a certain reserve.
If we analyze the turnout in the context of individual areas of the Kharkiv region in the elections last 5 years, we can note a number of
anomalies. For example, during the reign of Yanukovych in the majority districts with the center in Chuguev (Northeast Region) and
Balakleya (center-south-east) the turnout was much higher than average. It is here that "makes the results." What is typical - the

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election in 2014 the turnout was below average here.

In general, under Yanukovych in Kharkiv region higher turnout was observed in rural areas. In 2014, the situation has changed quite
the opposite - now Kharkiv voted actively. This means that vertical areas in a previous job is not received or is not able to fulfill them.

Local features
On the territory of the Kharkiv region is 14 territorial constituencies: 7 in the Kharkov and 7 - in the districts.
Overall, the picture of preferences of the population of the Kharkiv region is as follows:
Northeast, east, southeast and center - a pro. Here, a stronger position in the former Regions and the Communists - especially in the
cities of regional importance;
North-west, west and south-west - pro-Ukrainian sentiments are stronger advantage of ex-regionals is not overwhelming.

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For example, in the north-east is the only county in the Ukraine (!) Where Poroshenko lost during the elections in May 2014. This
patrimony Regions Dmitry Shentseva where PR / Yanukovych / OppoBlok always had the best or one of the best indicators.

As for the Kharkiv, here there are significant differences in the attitudes of people living in different districts. "Intellectualentrepreneurial" district vote differently than the "proletarian."
For example, the difference in voting for the "opposition bloc" between the Dzerzhinsk District (District 168 / 170) and Ordzhonikidze
district (district 172/174) in the autumn of 2014 was 8.64% (29.54% and 38.18%) . It is in Ordzhonikidze district in May 2014

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Poroshenko only 25 (!) Of the votes, or 0.04%, ahead of Mikhail Dobkin. Although the average Kharkov Poroshenko gap was 10%,
and in said Dzerzhinsky district - all 18.5%.

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Another feature of the recent elections in the territory of the Kharkiv region was virtually a mirror vote for "Self" and the Radical
Party. "Self-help" was about 10% in Kharkiv and 4% in the region, RPOL - on the contrary.
In general, even when viewed from the national level, the Kharkiv region, with all the dominance of the former Regions and their allies,
after all is not a monolith in electoral terms. If analyze the local and the local level, the picture becomes even more mosaic.There are
prerequisites to develop different tactics for different areas, taking into account the nature and target groups.

Electoral system
A number of observers, making predictions about the local elections, saying that the probability of a convincing victory of pro-Russian
forces is low. Allegedly, the trend is unambiguous - the ex-regionals in the Kharkiv region lost 8.8% (150 thousand. Votes) compared
with 2012 (32.16% instead of 40.98%). And the Communists in general "fell" 2.5 times (from 20.84%
to 8.53%; 236 thousand. And
81.5 thousand. Votes respectively)!

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However, these estimates are generally not take into account the performance of voting by majority districts.
For example, in the parliamentary elections in 2012 Regionals took in the Kharkiv region, all 14 majority districts. In 2014, they lost
only one district in Kharkov, where he defeated Alexander Kirsch ("Popular Front"). In this case, there was only one reshuffle: instead
of Irina Gorin, who in 2012 won by 171 district, and in 2014 was listed 34 OppoBloka, last fall in this county won Vitaly Homutinnik,
which in 2012 was number 23 in the list of PR. In 12 districts of the names of winners have not changed!
The results of the local elections in 2010 at the moment no longer be a reliable basis for extrapolation, but these figures are very
revealing.
In the elections of deputies of the Kharkiv Regional Council, which comprises 136 elected representatives, "the Regionals" took 56
districts out of 76 (74%).

Party members who

All elected

received mandates

Deputies

Including
by lists

in a
counties

Party of Regions

95

39

56

All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"

16

13

Political party "Strong Ukraine"

The Communist Party of Ukraine

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Political party "Front for Change"

People's Party

Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of

Ukraine

The Socialist Party of Ukraine

In the elections in Kharkiv City Council (100 members), the situation is even more illustrative. PR representatives took 45 districts out
of 50 (90%).

Party members who

All elected

received mandates

Deputies

Including
by lists

in a
counties

Party of Regions

69

24

45

All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"

13

11

The Communist Party of Ukraine

Political party "Strong Ukraine"

Political party "Front for Change"

People's Party

Party of Pensioners of Ukraine

Today the situation in the same regional council changed. Party of Regions is much "thinner", it has less than 40
people.Mazhoritarschikov from PR massively fled to the parliamentary group "Unity of Kharkiv" (headed by current governor Igor
Rainin), "Center" and other associations.
But still the paramount question is - and on what system elections will be held? Whether to keep the current, proportional? Or will be
introduced to some of the formats of voting for open lists?

Voting displaced persons

Formally, in the Kharkiv region about 2.2 million. Voters. In elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in the autumn of 2014 voted
973.2 thousand. People.
In this case, by the end of March 2015, the region was officially registered 157 thousand. Refugees from the Donbas and
Crimea. According to unofficial data such people - more than 300 thousand. (11% of the population). It is possible that:
The total number of immigrants will grow;
Will increase the number of registered persons.

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If these people are going to vote in local elections, it will seriously affect the results. According to the information that is now, the vast
majority of refugees will join the electorate ex-regionals.Many settlers blamed their troubles Ukraine and Kiev government. They
become easy prey for Russian propaganda and manipulation of the "struggle for peace" by OppoBloka, CPU, etc.
Voice, for example, 100 thousand. Persons - is (depending on attendance) 10-15% of the votes of all citizens who come to the polls.
Thus, the turnout (not) participate immigrants and format of choice can significantly affect the results. These puzzles have yet to lay
down.

Regional Project
Another important section of why it is important electoral system is the ability to traverse a choice of several regional projects "For
Kharkov and all good."
On the one hand, such projects can become a convenient disguise for ex-regionals, which will be run in the form of "strong economic
managers working for peace with Russia." On the other - they can take advantage of the moderate pro-Ukrainian forces, so as not to
stick out the connection with Kiev.

Regional projects can shoot at the local level - councils of cities of regional importance and district councils. - Especially during the

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vote on the districts.

For example, in 2010 from 7 cities of regional importance (including Kharkov) in 6 mayors became nominees of PR. Only Lozovoi won
PPPU representative. Also Lozovaja - it is the only city where the PR did not have a majority in the Council (Regionals received 25 of
the 50 seats). In general, municipal and district councils controlled Regionals. However, in this regard, there are some interesting
nuances.
For example, in Kupyansk and Lyubotinskom town Soviets in second place after PR was the party "Revival", just due to winning the
majority districts. Representatives of the party took place in the 5 city council of regional importance.
At the level of district councils appeared nominees People's Party. If the district council Balakleyskiy Regionals had 41 of the 48
mandate, the Bohodukhov (Northwest Region) - Only 18 out of 46. In this case, the People's Party has collected 13 seats, 10 of which
- in the districts.
In 14 of the 25 district councils Kharkiv region there are deputies from the Socialist Party. And in Kolomak district council OL had 8
seats out of 20, and the Socialists - 7.
Single story - the party of "Strong Ukraine", the brand which was seriously flawed in 2014
Of course, these numbers have largely lost relevance, because the same mazhoritarschikov extremely prone to migration with the

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change of power. However, the facts show that at the local level there are prerequisites to oust OppoBlok and its satellites.

United front against Kernes

Objectively pro-Ukrainian forces weak point - this election the mayor of Kharkiv and Kharkiv City Council.
According to various sources, Gennady Kernes, despite everything that happened, still has a stable support of 25-30% of the
voters. In the city council Kernes situation kept, Party of Regions not crumbled. His influence falls, but not as fast as is often
presented in Kiev.
If Kernes before the election will not get a criminal record, it will not be easy to defeat. Key condition here - the presence of a single
strong pro-Ukrainian candidate. At the moment no such candidate.
Fragmentation - a key issue pro-Ukrainian forces area. Total in 2014 for pro-Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region was given a
comparable number of votes with the "blue and white". However, due to spray "orange" range is more loose.

The most telling manifestation of fragmentation - casus district 168. The county covers Dzerzhinsky district of the city of
Kharkiv.This relatively safe district has always been distinguished more progressive vote because it is home weight Kharkov

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intellectuals, students.
Residents of the area are always better than others harkovchan perceived new political projects. In 2012, the best result here in
Kharkov region showed BLOW (16.87%). In 2014 - the best result in the region demonstrated the "Self" (12.64%).
In the autumn of 2014 in this county party future coalition totally won more votes than the "blue and white". But it is in majority districts
won ex-Regions Valery Pisarenko (30.98%; 23 175 votes)! A second, third, fourth and sixth place was taken by representatives of the
parties of the future coalition and activists Kharkov Euromaidan. In total, they received 34.2 thousand. Votes. Even with the partial
loss when it overflows with the head would be enough to win.

Conclusion
In this article we deliberately do not focus on the factors that are difficult to predict. It is obvious that in the case of intensification of
the war in the Donbas their course a significant impact on public opinion. Just as serious changes and socio-economic
environment. Now we see a tendency to worsen the situation and the growth of dissent.
Collapsing economic ties with Russia without adequate replacement in the domestic or foreign markets in Europe, Asia and America,
hurt the Kharkov. The first bells already have. The accumulation of negative factors in six months could seriously undermine the
position of power and pave the way for a rematch.OppoBloku to increase the electorate, nothing supernatural do not need. But the
pro-Ukrainian forces will have to try to get a good result.
To reduce the risks, now you must:
1. Activate the information work with the population. The great bulk of Kharkiv did not perceive Russia as an aggressor. Many
continue to believe that just about everything will calm down, and we will live in the old way. They know little about the real situation in
the Russian province and occupied the Crimea.
2. Conduct systematic outreach to immigrants. Avoid formation of Donetsk and Luhansk anti-Ukrainian ghetto, identify and localize
those working to destabilize.
3. The de facto start the process of combining pro-Ukrainian democratic forces. At least - as part of a coalition. First task - to
nominate a single candidate for mayor of Kharkov and other cities of regional importance, as well as districts.
4. Create a social elevators for activists and build a regional network of living at the grassroots level. The goal - to get prepared and
recognizable asset to break the monopoly of the ex-majority districts in the regionals.
5. Explore the possibility of launching a regional pro-Ukrainian project. In parallel, a debate about the place of Kharkov in Ukraine's
future, debunking the lies about "HNR."
6. Prepare network of observers and members of the commissions, to cover all areas. In particular - from among persons who
received TAU.
7. Restore effective executive vertical, to demonstrate the power of government.
Problem at least for local elections in 2015 - to prevent the formation of a pro-Russian majority in the provincial and Kharkiv City
Council and the city council of regional importance.
Optimal task - to destroy the image of Kharkov as a stronghold of the Regions and destroy revanchist base. To do this, the region is
not split up areas, identify where possible success, and invest in them targeted efforts.
The overall conclusion - a difficult struggle ahead. There are good chances for successful problem solving. The main thing - do not
waste time and hope that it is as a matter of will.

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IP-Kharkiv

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