China - Demand for petroleum, energy efficiency and consumption per capita

by Eduardo Petazze
29/07/15
In 2014 the consumption for oil and other liquids, Mainland China grew by 3.53% from the 3.0% in 2013.
For the forecast period 2015/2020 it is estimated that Chinese oil demand will grow around or below 3.0%.
The following table shows the evolution of oil consumption and ratios:
GVA (GDP) per barrel of oil consumed by the entire economy and specifically for the secondary industry
barrels of oil consumed annually per capita.
Petroleum demand
GDP at (2013) prices in yuan per barrel
Oil consuption per capita (year average)
nd
(000) bpd
YoY
Total GDP
YoY
YoY
Total
YoY
Urban
YoY
Rural
2 industry
1980
1,765
4,023
1,184
0.657
2.296
1.852
1981
1,705 -3.40%
4,380 8.87%
1,248 5.46% 0.626 -4.63% 2.318 0.96% 2.005
1982
1,660 -2.64%
4,904 11.97%
1,353 8.37% 0.601 -4.06% 2.371 2.28% 2.237
1983
1,730 4.22%
5,212 6.27%
1,434 5.98% 0.617 2.72% 2.392 0.88% 2.364
1984
1,740 0.58%
5,970 14.54%
1,632 13.80% 0.613 -0.73% 2.573 7.57% 2.706
1985
1,885 8.33%
6,257 4.82%
1,786 9.44% 0.655 6.87% 2.654 3.16% 2.836
1986
2,000 6.10%
6,424 2.66%
1,855 3.87% 0.684 4.53% 2.631 -0.88% 2.897
1987
2,120 6.00%
6,771 5.39%
1,989 7.27% 0.714 4.32% 2.687 2.14% 3.037
1988
2,275 7.31%
7,022 3.72%
2,123 6.71% 0.754 5.60% 2.751 2.36% 3.126
1989
2,380 4.59%
6,997 -0.36%
2,105 -0.83% 0.776 3.00% 2.641 -4.01% 3.086
1990
2,296 -3.49%
7,535 7.70%
2,251 6.92% 0.738 -4.90% 2.751 4.18% 3.288
1991
2,499 8.81%
7,567 0.42%
2,355 4.62% 0.793 7.34% 2.800 1.79% 3.273
1992
2,662 6.52%
8,118 7.29%
2,679 13.73% 0.834 5.22% 3.085 10.18% 3.494
1993
2,959 11.19%
8,319 2.47%
2,888 7.82% 0.917 9.92% 3.226 4.57% 3.565
1994
3,161 6.80%
8,808 5.88%
3,198 10.71% 0.968 5.60% 3.466 7.44% 3.760
1995
3,363 6.41%
9,188 4.31%
3,422 7.02% 1.019 5.26% 3.603 3.93% 3.908
1996
3,610 7.34%
9,409 2.41%
3,574 4.44% 1.082 6.22% 3.600 -0.07% 4.016
1997
3,916 8.48%
9,473 0.69%
3,640 1.84% 1.162 7.38% 3.462 -3.84% 4.086
1998
4,106 4.84%
9,746 2.87%
3,781 3.88% 1.207 3.84% 3.405 -1.64% 4.252
1999
4,364 6.28%
9,868 1.26%
3,848 1.77% 1.271 5.36% 3.291 -3.36% 4.361
2000
4,796 9.90%
9,736 -1.34%
3,830 -0.46% 1.386 9.04% 3.119 -5.23% 4.364
2001
4,918 2.55%
10,282 5.61%
4,051 5.76% 1.411 1.81% 3.147 0.90% 4.680
2002
5,161 4.94%
10,689 3.96%
4,239 4.66% 1.471 4.24% 3.149 0.08% 4.945
2003
5,578 8.09%
10,880 1.79%
4,419 4.23% 1.580 7.42% 3.145 -0.15% 5.121
2004
6,437 15.41%
10,378 -4.62%
4,254 -3.73% 1.813 14.72% 2.912 -7.40% 4.966
2005
6,795 5.56%
10,947 5.49%
4,516 6.16% 1.903 4.94% 2.984 2.48% 5.319
2006
7,263 6.89%
11,541 5.43%
4,792 6.10% 2.022 6.29% 3.055 2.39% 5.704
2007
7,480 2.98%
12,798 10.89%
5,352 11.68% 2.072 2.45% 3.285 7.53% 6.458
2008
7,697 2.90%
13,634 6.53%
5,711 6.70% 2.121 2.38% 3.388 3.13% 7.014
2009
8,070 4.84%
14,205 4.19%
5,996 4.99% 2.213 4.32% 3.449 1.78% 7.442
2010
8,938 10.76%
14,188 -0.12%
6,099 1.73% 2.439 10.23% 3.386 -1.81% 7.613
2011
9,504 6.33%
14,609 2.97%
6,343 4.00% 2.581 5.82% 3.403 0.50% 8.032
2012
10,175 7.06%
14,703 0.64%
6,410 1.05% 2.750 6.54% 3.336 -1.98% 8.264
2013
10,480 3.00%
15,372 4.55%
6,714 4.74% 2.818 2.49% 3.397 1.81% 8.823
2014
10,850 3.53%
15,940 3.69%
6,956 3.60% 2.903 3.01% 3.430 0.99% 9.322
2015
11,180 3.04%
16,547 3.81%
7,197 3.48% 2.976 2.52% 3.468 1.10% 9.842
2016
11,520 3.04%
17,081 3.23%
7,410 2.95% 3.051 2.53% 3.493 0.74% 10.325
2017
11,860 2.95%
17,602 3.05%
7,662 3.41% 3.125 2.43% 3.537 1.26% 10.809
2018
12,200 2.87%
18,077 2.70%
7,883 2.88% 3.199 2.36% 3.565 0.79% 11.280
Latest data GDP at constant prices of 2013 is an own estimate, based on official data of GDP at constant prices of 1978
Own estimate
In 2014 every barrel of oil consumed generates a gross value added (at constant 2013 prices) just under 16,000 yuan, an
increase of 3.7% in the efficiency of the use of that form of energy.
In 2014, on average each inhabitant consumes 2.9 barrels in the year, with growth of 3% over the previous year.
Links:
WTI Spot Price (The article includes an estimate of global oil demand)
China, Gross Domestic Product 2015 and 2016 projected
China Power Generation