BIDV - Vietnam Stock Market 2009

March
2009
BIDV Securities Co
VIETNAM SECURITIES MARKET
Monthly report
A Rousing Appears
Contents
Page
Vietnam Economic Highlights .......................... 1

Policy move and trend ...................................... 10
Market summary.. .............12
Listed Company Highlights ............................... 25
Unlisted Company Highlights ........................... 28
Recommendations................................................ 35
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Monthly Report
March 2009
VIETNAM ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Economic growth
Challenges but some

positive signals
Vietnam economy has experienced difficulties and challenges in Q1.09. The

growth rate of industry and construction only got 1.5% which equivalent to 81%
y-o-y. Meanwhile, services increased by 5.4%, equivalent to 33% y-o-y.
Industrial production value achieved VND152,900 billion, only increased by
2.1% compared to the figure of Q1.08. The most potential sector in 2009
agriculture, aquatic and forestry which registered only at 0.4%. However, the
total value of retailing goods and services was 29.2% y-o-y higher, which
generated a 3.1% increase in GDP of Q1.09. Although the GDP growth rate is
lower than 7.4% of Q1.08, it was considered a positive signal in the turbulent
situation, confirming that Vietnam economy would not be as gloomy as
estimated. Notably, non-state sector performed as the most flexible one with a
growth rate of 5%. The social living standard was secured and improved.
The two major factors investment capital and labor - were remarkably
improved. Although the social investment capital decreased in comparison with
the 2008s number and 2009s plan, it is still expected to be above 35%;
working labor added more 1% . Therefore, with ICOR of 6.92 times, GDP could
register at least 5% in 2009.
Inflation
As stated by the General Statistics Office (GSO), the countrys CPI in March,
2009 increased at a rate of 2.99 percent which was 0.57% tumble compared to
the same figure of February. It brought CPI of Q1.09 to 9.19 percent. In
particular, food prices reduced strongly from 7.53 % in February to 1.36% in
March. Different to previous months, the group of transportation and post office
services recorded the highest increase rate of over 5.7%in this month. The
reason is because on February 25th, the domestic petrol price was adjusted to
raise causing transportation services immediately increased. Besides,
construction material prices also saw a drastic m-o-m increase of 3.55%.
CPI low purchasing

power
CPI changes showed ominous signs of the fall in domestic demand for goods
and services. Low purchasing power has indicated signs of a slowdown in
economic growth, and people continued to cut back on their spending.
Economic experts at the department predicted that the slight decline of the CPI
would be temporary due to sharp decline in societys demand after Tets
holiday. On the other hand, this is also an initial achievement of anti-inflationary
policies implemented quite comprehensively recently, especially through a
series of solutions which tightened the monetary policy and stabilized essential
commodities.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
Interest rates
A slight upward trend in deposit rates in Vietnam Dong was likely a mainstream
in market interest rates due to a consolidation in the credit demand in Mar.09 as
in our previous forecast. The wave of raising deposit rates in Vietnam Dong
started from Joint-Stock Commercial Banks (JSCBs), and then became popular
in the whole banking system in most interest durations (see Figure 1).
Nevertheless, we saw average interest premiums of JSCBs which were higher
than those of State Owned Commercial Banks (SOCBs) (3-month period: 0.5%,
6-month period: 0.36% and 1-year period: 0.18%), especially in shorter terms. It
implies that JSCBs exposed to be less liquidity for short-term deposits than
SOCBs.
Interest slightly
pulled up
In addition, by observation on inter-bank interest rates, we also witnessed a soft

increase in annualized one week and one month interest durations, which
revealed that lending activities for short-term loans have been gradually
accelerated. Possible factors that established the trend in deposit rates should
be the 4% interest subsidy program and the implementation of loans for private
consumption. Raising short term deposit rates did create more liquidity for the
banking system to push up these programs.
1. The trend in deposit rates in VND in Mar.09 (% per annum)
8
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
SOCBs (VND) 3 months
SOCBs (VND) 6 months
SOCBs (VND) 1 year
JSCBs (VND) 3 months
JSCBs (VND) 6 months
JSCBs (VND) 1 year
7
6.8
6.6
19/2-25/2
26/2-4/3
5/3-11/3
12/3-18/3
19/3-25/3
Source: State Bank of Vietnam
The lending rates in Vietnam dong for all durations offered by commercial
banks were quite stable in Mar.09, mainly 8.5%-10.5% and 4.5%-6.5% for
projects under the subsidized program. The stability in lending rates was firmly
established because of no further cut in base rate in this month. Given a
gradual devaluation of Vietnam dong, low preferential lending rates in Vietnam
dong did weaken the market demand for borrowing US dollar because there
was a very small premium of lending rates in Vietnam dong over US dollar.
Hence, a downward trend in deposit rates in US dollar in this month is quite
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Monthly Report
March 2009
understandable. Moreover, the balance of payment in Mar.08 was much

improved owing to trade surplus and Japanese ODA resume, which assured
sufficient liquidity in US dollar in the banking system (see Figure 2).
2. The trend in deposit rates in USD in Mar.09 (% per annum)
3.5
SOCBs (USD) 3 months
3.3
SOCBs (USD) 6 months
3.1
SOCBs (USD) 1 year

JSCBs (USD) 3 months
2.9
JSCBs (USD) 6 months
2.7
JSCBs (USD) 1 year
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
19/2-25/2
26/2-4/3
5/3-11/3
12/3-18/3
19/3-25/3
Source: The State Bank of Vietnam
We continuously anticipates that both market lending and deposit rates should
keep their upward trends with a range of 0.5-0.8% in Apr.09. When commercial
banks widely accelerate their credit growth in loans for private consumption and
housing construction beyond the subsidized program, an increase in demand
for loans should encourage a higher deposit rates. In addition, higher risk
premium that will be charged at lending rates for loans in the private
consumption and housing construction should lift the average market lending
rates to a higher range in Apr.09.
Exchange rate
The foreign exchange proved to even more fluctuate in Mar.09. Soon after the
State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced to widen the trading band from +/- 3%
to +/- 5% with an expectation to produce more flexibility in the USD/VND
exchange rate while more accurately reflecting the supply and demand, the
foreign currency market went bustling.
People were in a rush to buy dollar, hoping to sell for a profit. A dollar scare
seemed to come back and pushed the forex rates upwards hitting
VND18,000/US$1.00 threshold on March 23rd. However, the dollar was cool
immediately after one day spike since investors realized its value on global
markets was depreciating significantly against other currencies.
In conclusion, trading band expansion is also understood as paving the way for
depreciating the Vietnam Dong. It seems to be the right decision by the
Government at this moment since it enables the interbank-markets exchange
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Monthly Report
March 2009
rate between dong and dollar to be closer to the free-markets rate. Moreover,
the interest rates are likely close to the bottoming out; the depreciation pressure
on the currency would become less. As a result, the currency is expected to be
stable in the upcoming times. In addition, any actions including trading currency
exceeding the limit and hoarding of US dollar will be strictly punished in order to
ensure a healthy flow of foreign currencies in the economy.
Trade balance
US dollar fluctuated
strongly
After having a slim deficit of US$100 million in Feb.09, Vietnam's trade balance
performed a surplus of US$ 400 million in Mar.09 and US$ 1,647 million in
Q1.09 (see Figure 3). In fact, the trade balance proceeded to a trend of
contraction since H2.08 after having ballooned in the first half of year 2008.
3. Trade balance from Jan.08 - Mar.09 (million USD)
2,000
1,000
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry of Vietnam
In line with our previous evaluation, given that a surplus will bring improved
balance of payment and the liquidity in foreign exchange markets, the abnormal
phenomenon raised our concerns about the economy. Even though Vietnam
was in a very short list of export-oriented economies where it achieved a y-o-y
positive export growth of 2.4% in Q1.09, the turnovers of most export items
were in shortfall. 26 out of 35 major commodities faced their difficulties in
external demand slump. A great concern was paid at the so-called US$ billion
export club, in which 12 out of 13 exports did stiffly drop by 10-20% y-o-y in
Q1.09, notably crude-oil (-48.6%), electric wires and cables (-47.3%), raw
rubber (-43.9%). The sharply negative growth figures of these key export items
strongly indicate that Vietnam is now in line for a harder blow from the rapidly
deteriorating global economy.
Another concern comes out of the export structure in Q1.09. A y-o-y overperformance in export turnover was largely contributed by a surge in unusual
exportation of precious metals and stones, mainly re-exporting gold, which is
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Monthly Report
March 2009
Surplus trade balance
unlikely a key item in Vietnams export list (see Figure 4). The turnover of this
group gained US$ 139 million in Jan.09, equaling to 7 folds y-o-y,
y
then
suddenly peaked to US$ 1,298 million
illion in Feb.09, increased by 120.2 times
compared to the figure of Feb.08 and stood at US$ 850, increased by 41 times
compared to that of Mar.08. For the whole period of Q1.09, total revenue of
exportation in this group achieved US$ 2,287 million.
illion. Therefore,
Theref
the total export
revenue ex-precious
precious metals and stones only stood at US$ 11,200 million, down
15% y-o-yy (or equivalent of US$ 2 billion), resulting a trade deficit of US$ 1,600
million. In a word, export activities, a major pillar of the economic growth,
grow did
severely underperform in Q1.09, resulting in the contraction of most business
activities and corporate profit margin losses.
4. The structure of export turnover
over by items (%)
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Jan09
Feb09
Precious stones & metals
Mar09
Other items
Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry of Vietnam
Moreover, we saw an ongoing slump in import activities. The trade surplus was
largely due to the import revenue which dropped by 55.2% in Jan.09, 31.7% in
Feb.09 and 49% in Mar.09 compared to the same period of 2008..
2008 For the
whole period of Q1.09, the import revenue was down 45% from the level
lev of
Q1.08. Import revenue contraction was caused by both price and demand
factors. Beyond a positive signal of a bottoming out of prices in key imports, a
sharply negative y-o-yy growth rate in volumes of most imports implies upup
coming difficulties in domestic
estic production for both external and internal
demands.
We have continuously revising down our export and import forecasts for H1.09
and up in H2.09. In balance for the whole year of 2009, we estimate that the
former would be contracted by 19.5% in 2009 too US$ 50.9 billion and the latter
would decrease by 25.7% to US$ 60.2 billion. This might result in a near halving
of the trade deficit from US$ 17.5 billion in 2008 to US$ 9.3 billion in 2009 when
exports in precious metals and stones will disappear soon in the top revenue list
of export in upcoming months.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
FDI and ODA

In Q1.09, FDI strongly fluctuated from US$ 185 million in January to a record
level of US$ 5,126 million in February, and then down to US$ 700 million in
March. Contrast to the impressive results of 2008, FDI has moved in declining
trend, registered FDI was only US$ 6,015 million, equivalent to 60% of the
figure of the same period of 2008 with 93 projects. There were 34 projects
increasing capital with the value of US$ 3.844 million, equivalent to 31% in
terms of projects and 34% in terms of fund in comparison with the number of
the same period last year. The economic growth rate of FDI sector lifted up
2.9%. With a strong belief in economic potentialities, foreign investment funds
will be in acceleration in April, especially US$ 2 billion is harbored to flow in
Northern Industrial Zones and Economic Zones.
Vietnam is regarded as the most effectively ODA user. According to the Ministry
of Planning and Investment, the total ODA value which has been spent in Q1.09
was estimated at US$198 million, equivalent to 10.4% of the total target setting
for the whole year 2009. In which, US$153 million was disbursed in the form of
loans and the remaining was non-refundable grants. Total ODA value of
agreements signed in Q1.09 reached over US$26.23 million, including US$ 21
million loans and US$ 5.23 million non-refundable grants. As to the donors,
besides Japan, Hungarian Government will grant ODA an amount of EURO 100
million for health care and education projects. EURO 35 million will be
disbursed in water supplying system, contaminated water and administration.
Currently, Hungary has registered US$ 2.19 million for 5 projects.
Typical ODA projects focused on: Enhancing agricultural and rural development
capacity in Tay Nguyen area financed by Japan with the value of US$ 3.5
million; improving living standard of Bac Kan highland residents co-aided by
IFAD and GEF, valued at US$ 21.65 million; promoting pioneer activities for
social development, valued at US$ 1.08 million and non-refunded by UNDP.
The leading sponsor ADB will grant US$ 72 million for infrastructure
development and urban service in Thanh Hoa province. Moreover, ADB will
make non-refundable of US$ 2 million through Partner Fund for water projects
(WFPF) to upgrade water supply system of Thanh Hoa province. ADBs aid of
USD 95 million for Project of Quality Improving and Agricultural Ensuring and
Biologic Gas Development, which is the priority loan with a payment term of 32
years, priority period of 8 years and the interest rate 1% and 1.5% in the
remaining time.
In order to attract prominent projects, it is important to renovate cumbersome
procedures and upgrade infrastructure for rapid implementation and
disbursement of FDI, ODA in the upcoming time. Being in need of improving
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Monthly Report
March 2009
FDI and ODA focused

on infrastructure
infrastructure construction, especially road and hydro-electric power system and

together with the important role of external funds, internal financial source
should be perceived as an inevitable force for the stable development.
According to the survey of IMF, although speculated-aim foreign in-direct
investment (FII) has already put off Vietnam, the risk FII withdrawing still
becomes little. With the sufficiency of foreign reserve (US$ 22 billion) and the
USD-nominated bonds issuance, Vietnamese Government would ensure the
normalization of foreign market as well as replacement ability of inside capital
flows.
Gold market
The high investment in gold has pushed the price to skyrocketing in the world
market. The reason investors found interesting in investing in gold because they
fear that the decision of almost all countries in the world to pump trillions of
dollars in to the financial market to bail out economies would lead to higher
inflation in the future.
Renovate cumbersome
procedures for higher
FDI disbursement
Keeping pace with the US gold market, the domestic gold market strongly
fluctuated in March.09 and became scorching hot as the price hit the highest
record ever of VND 20.4 million/tael threshold on March 27th. The market has
seen the highest ever gold selling power due to high prices. It is estimated that
there is a large volume of gold of up to 800 tons worth US$24 billion currently
lying among people.
As predicted by international experts, the US economy growth might be
recovered by the end of 2009. Therefore, gold price would continue to rise
strongly in the first half of the year, keep stable in the third quarter and start
decreasing in the last quarter of 2009.
5.5.Gold
Goldprice
priceininMarch
March2009
2009 (VND )
24-K SJC
24-K SJC
Bidding
(VND/ounce)
16,251,400
16,458,900
Selling
(VND/ounce)
16,326,100
16,517,000
Change
207,500
190,900
Gold
Source: ATP Vietnam
In February, the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) allowed firms and commercial
banks to export a total of 10 tons of gold which aimed to attract foreign
currencies flow into Vietnam in the context of the high pressure on the
VND/USD exchange rate. Moreover, SBV will also provide quotas for gold
imports when gold begins to sell at lower prices on the world market.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
Real estate
Skyrocketing gold
price
Although the Vietnams real estate market has not shown much sign of recovery
in Mar.09, the market has been still presenting a huge ability to absorb
investment from all available capital sources. Real estate developers including
both state-owned and private firms have been turning their interests in investing
in low-cost and mediumprice houses due to high market demand. Moreover,
the market now was in favorable conditions for investors to deploy these
projects as the prices of construction materials have been sharply decreasing.
Hanois real estate market witnessed low-cost apartment fever. Three reasons
are considered to be reasons causing the price fever. Firstly, the infrastructures
of the urban areas prove to be relatively good and are not too far from the city
center. Secondly, the prices of these apartments were likely reasonable and
affordable for many people. Thirdly, the supply of these commodities was still in
shortage while the demand was quite high.
Moreover, the Government has recently required investors of commercial
housing projects with over 5 hectare of land to reserve at least 10% area of
their land fund to develop low-cost houses in order to serve the development
target of localities. Besides, investors will gain several benefits that will allow
them to be exempted from the land use fee and leasing fee for the land areas.
Foreign institutions views and domestic perspectives

In spite of the turning down of economy, Vietnam together with other three
Asian countries China, India and Indonesia could achieve a positive economic
growth in 2009 while the United States,.European countries, and Japan will
subject to negative economic growth rate of -2.5%, -3%, -5.5%, respectively.
Vietnam would grow at 0.3%, according to an estimation of Mr. Justin Wood
ASEAN Corporate Network Managing Director of Economist Intelligence Unit at
the Business Roundtable with the Vietnamese Government 2009, positioning
Vietnam for the future. The conference also disclosed the confidence that
Vietnam will become an industrial country.
Given challenges in short-term relating to exchange reserve pressure and
exchange rates, IMF also showed its strong belief in middle and long term
potentiality of Vietnam. The GDP was expected to be at optimistic level of
4.75%. Standard Chartered, Citi group, Deutsche Bank, ADB and World Bank
also estimated the firgure of 4.2%, 5.2%, 4% and 5.5%, respectively.
The World Bank ranked Vietnam at 92 place among 181 countries in 2009 in
Property-more
terms of development level and 113/127 countries and territories in terms of

advantage business environment (Forbes assessment). Vietnam was still on
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Monthly Report
March 2009
investing on low-cost
houses
the process of raising its position from a low-income country to a middle-level

one.
According to the CEO Club of Vietnam Industry and Commerce Chamber,
Vietnam was still regarded as attractive destination thanks to its stablity in
political-social environment. Legal framework has been amended and added to
become more transparent.
According to surveillance of TNS-Gallup International Vietnam on consumption
confidence in Vietnamese families, 86% of 500 people believed that
unemployment rate will increase in 2009, which is the highest level among 12
countries, followed by Singapore of 78% and Phillippines of 76%. Meanwhile,
57% of the same number in Indian and Pakistanian estimated that
unemployment rate will rise. However, 35% employees would quickly find new
jobs if they were unemployed. The survey also pointed out that 3 figures: value
of VND, employment, cost of living will be worse while other 3 figures: Vietnam
economy, foreign investment and individuals living level will be improved. 88%
of rural residents believed that Vietnam economy will be bet0074er off in 2009.
It was 2% higher than the figure of 2007. As to FDI, 39% of consumers
confirmed that it will be accelerated within 12 coming months. 83% of people
estimated that living standard will be improved or at least remained at the same
level of 2008 (over US$ 1,000 per capita). 52% of people will save much more
in global recession.
International and
domestic green view
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Monthly Report
March 2009
POLICY MOVE AND TREND

Fiscal and monetary policies
Easing monetary policy
Spillover effects from the global turmoil did weaken Vietnams exports of goods
and services, private remittances and FDI in Q1.09. Macro-economic policies
have become the last resort to prevent the economy from severe deterioration.
The mainstream of policies in Mar.09 was to support the economic growth
consistently. Vietnamese Government has been in pursuit of its easing
monetary and fiscal policy in Mar.09.
As expected, it would be less effective if the SBV cuts the benchmark base rate
lower than 7%. We saw an unchanging in the base rate of 7% as stated in the
Decision 626/QD-NHNN dated Mar. 24th, 2009. In fact, the 7% base rate gave a
good guide to market interest rates in both Vietnam dong and US dollar in this
month. In addition, despite an upward trend in market interest rates, the SBV
kept stably refinancing and discount rates at 8% and 6%, respectively, which
continuously facilitated the liquidity of the banking system to inject more money
into the economy.
Took times for

policies effects
More stimulus package

need for production
The key issue is the implementation in the interest subsidized program in

Mar.09. It seems that credit activities under the program have been working
successfully during this month. As of Mar. 26th 2009, the banking system had
disbursed VND 178,722 billion, accounted for 42,1% of total preferential loans
under the scheme. In which 60% of loans was reserved for non-state owned
companies, 36% for state-owned enterprises and only a small percentage was
set aside for cooperatives, households and farmers. After one month since the
program started, the program likely served its right objectives. The participation
of financial companies in providing subsidized loans did create a larger
accession for companies to approach favored sources of the capital.
We raised our concern about the efficiency of the program. It is likely that a
majority of subsidized loans was not used in the right purpose as it should be.
Many SMEs acquired the loans to replace their old or expired debts with high
borrowing costs instead of reinvesting or resuming their production and
business activities. An accommodative fiscal stance such an interest subsidized
program to help mitigate the economic downturn is appropriate. However, we
caution that in the absence of additional external financing, the insufficient
stimulus package would even weaken the external position, crowd out private
sector activity and undermine fiscal sustainability. Therefore, we expect a
reappraising and refinancing the program in the light of these concerns and with
a view to ensure that the stimulus measures are well targeted and effectively
supporting aggregate demand. Nevertheless, the announced fiscal measures
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Monthly Report
March 2009
are modest in scale, amounting for about 2.7% of projected 2009 GDP. In
addition, the budgetary constraints from a narrow revenue base and existing
high public indebtedness mean further scope for fiscal expansion is limited.
Accelerating the government subsidy will put higher pressure on budget deficit.
For the rest of the year, we anticipate an increasing in budget deficit up to 10%
of 2009 GDP because of a greater spread between Governments revenues
and expenditures.
Recent issuance of onshore USD-denominated government was successfully in
short-term durations (with maturities of one and two years). It implies that the
possibility for the Government in order to raise source to finance its debt will be
higher if the balance of payment become consolidated in upcoming months.
Foreign exchange policy
More flexible foreign

exchange policy
More flexible foreign

exchange policy
The SBV extended the trading band within which the dong was allowed to
fluctuate on a daily basis against the dollar from +/-3% to +/-5% pursuant to
Decision 622/QD-NHNN dated 23/03/09. The downward adjustment was
probably given the strong headwinds buffering the manufacturing and export
sectors. We acknowledge that there will be an increasing risk of competitive
devaluations of the Vietnam dong, but the move seemed to reflect the market's
demand. In fact, faster depreciations of EURO and JPY than US dollar would
cause Vietnam dong to appreciate against EURO and JPY if trading band had
not been extended. We, therefore, anticipate a range of exchange rate of
VND/US$ 18,500 - 19,000-end 09 target for the Vietnam dong.
Some key legal updates

Decision 333/QD-TTg dated 10/03/2009 regulates on the amendment and
supplement of Decision 131/QD-TTg dated 23/01/2009 on regulating interest
subsidized program.
Key legal documents
took effective
Key legal documents

took effective
Circular 04/2009/TT-NHNN dated 13/03/2009 on the amendment and

supplement of Circular 02/2009/TT-NHNN dated 03/02/2009 on regulating on
detail implementation of interest subsidy program.
Decree 26/2009/ND-CP dated 16/03/2009 regulates the implementation of the
law on special consumption taxes Circular 56/2009/TT-BTC dated 23/03/2009
provides guidance on the mechanism of establishment, usage and clearance of
the stabilizing fund for petroleum prices
Circular 58/2009/TT-BTC dated 25/03/2009 provides a guidance on adjustment
of preferential tariff rates on steel and iron items
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Monthly Report
March 2009
MARKET IN SUMARY
HASTC
HOSE
TOP ACTIVE BY VALUE
TOP ACTIVE BY VALUE
Trading value
(Million VND)
Trading value
(Million VND)
No
Ticker
1,199,081
STB
896,850
KLS
368,163
SSI
620,247
BVS
292,215
DPM
519,070
VSP
275,725
FPT
488,321
VCG
138,709
HPG
347,582
No
Ticker
ACB
TOP ACTIVE BY VOLUME
TOP ACTIVE BY VOLUME

Trading volume
(Shares)
Trading volume
(Shares)
No
Ticker
42,348,221
STB
54,464,500
KLS
30,408,360
SSI
24,982,370
BVS
16,382,300
VCG
9,005,700
3
4
DPM
HPG
17,097,620
11,950,560
VSP
6,637,060
VF1
11,502,920
No
Ticker
ACB
TOP PRICE CHANGES

No
Ticker
KBC
TOP PRICE CHANGES
Price change (VND)
No
Ticker
Price change (VND)
18,300
SFC
15,500
S99
11,000
SGH
12,000
VSP
9,300
ITA
11,000
NTP
8,100
VPL
10,000
BVS
7,300
BMC
9,700
TOP BIGGEST LISTED VALUE
TOP BIGGEST LISTED VALUE

No
Ticker
18,177,624,550,000
VNM
13,759,140,095,000
KBC
5,363,320,000,000
DPM
11,976,400,000,000
PVS
2,671,590,000,000
HAG
9,709,983,054,000
PVI
2,620,000,000,000
PPC
8,128,865,300,000
VCG
2,324,769,825,000
PVD
7,731,798,984,000
No
Ticker
ACB
Listed value (VND)
Listed value (VND)
Source: HOSE and HASTC and BSCs synthetic

Page | 12

Monthly Report
March 2009
HOSE
6. VN Index from March 1st to March 31st
Source: BSC
It is said that Mar.09 was filled with strong emotion for investors who joined the
market. The investors experienced different tones, which change from
greediness to fear as well as from anxious and careful attitude to cheerful one.
Investors sentiment attached to the Vietnam market fluctuation while Vietnam
market changes much relied on the profit locking activities and the move of US
stock market. Based on insight observation of market change in Mar.09, we
saw the important role of domestic investors in making a short-term bullish
trend in the beginning and middle of the month. However, foreigners had
active role in consolidating this trend as well as creating new high price level at
the end of the month. Investors mentality is also strengthened with the
positive participation of foreigners. The market was active to establish the
bottom.
From greediness to fear
In Mar.09, VN Index had 22 sessions with 14 up and 8 down. It reached

280.67 pts on Mar 31st, 09, increased by 34.93 pts (equivalent to 14.2%) as
compared to the level of 245.74 pts on Feb 27th,09. The liquidity on HOSE in
this month improved remarkably. An average trading volume per session was
16.69 million shares, doubled when compared to 8.1 million shares/session in
Feb.09. Regarding transaction value, HOSE achieved VND 340.3 billion per
day on average. Notably, the market witnessed active participations of
domestic investors in the beginning and middle of the month while foreigners
took chance to push up selling activities. However, foreigners suddenly rebought big amount of blue-chip stocks at the end of the month. VN Index
increased sharply by 7.8% for the final week of Mar.09 before adjusted on Mar
30th and 31st, 09. Most blue-chip stocks increased in the context that foreigners
actively participated. The trading volume of foreign investors accounted for
10.45% of the total market trading volume. They bid 38.3 million shares and
sold 38.7 million shares. Foreigners promoted selling out most sessions during
the period of Mar 2nd to Mar 20th with total net selling of 11.2 million shares
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Monthly Report
March 2009
while they actively bought in during the period of Mar 23rd to 31st with total net
buying of 10.8 million shares. However, they had net monthly selling of 0.38
million shares, equivalent to VND 153 billion. It stopped the series of net
buying months from Dec.08 to Jan.09. For further studying, we found that
foreigners often had a net buying position during the last two weeks of each
quarter since Sep. 08. They also acted in the same manner this month.
Actions that keep repeated recently brought us a question of whether
foreigners made their NAV report better off.
In terms of individual stocks, the group of low-par value stocks prevailed at the
beginning of the month when they got a series of impressive increases.
Nevertheless, it conceded the leading position to the group of blue-chip stocks
at the end of the month. New price level was established when the market
witnessed the increase in overall market and that the trading volume was
booming at the reversal sessions. Opposite to the poor performance in Feb.09,
most blue-chips stocks had relative advance. Among 10 top market caps, the
percentage increasing was calculated as follows:
Attractiveness of
blue chips
7. Price gaining or losing of top ten market caps

Tickers
% gain or lost in Feb
% gain or lost in Mar
VNM
-9.1%
5.4%
DPM
-17.0%
11.3%
HAG
-14.0%
3.8%
PVF
-17.3%
23.5%
PPC
0.0%
35.1%
STB
-15.4%
9.5%
PVD
-25.0%
8.3%
FPT
11.9%
21.9%
HPG
-17.2%
20.4%
VPL
22.0%
25.6%
Source: BSC
VN Index has proceeded to move on a short-term bullish trend, which was
established since Feb 24th, 09. After making a new trough record of 235.5 pts
on Feb 24th, VN Index recovered and had a series of gaining sessions in
Mar.09. At Mar 31st, VN Index increased by 45.17pts compared to the trough,
equivalent to 19.1%. The positive signals on the ability of US economy
recovery, the cash flow transferring from gold trading and other resources
were likely the causes of the stock market recovery.
VN-Index currently followed a bullish trend in the short-term. The price got out
of the medium resistant line and was supported by the blue supported line in
short-term. Base on the daily chart, the price lied over MA (11), MA (20) and
MA (50). MA (11) was moving over MA (20) and MA (50). ADX (14) reached to
Page | 14

Monthly Report
March 2009
the value of 23 while +DI valued 45 lied over DI valued 23. The price also
was moving above Parabolic Sar. These signals confirmed the bullish trend in
short-term. There was a negative divergence between the price and MFI at the
end of March. However, other indicators of RSI and MACD had supported the
current trend. Notably, trading volume was maintained highly for the last half of
month and was an important indicator to consolidate the current trend.
Although MA (11) crossed over MA (50) from below, it was too soon to signify
the bullish trend in the medium term. It needed several gaining sessions,
especially the price break through the psychology level of 300pts to firm a
trend in the medium term.
On the perspective of Eliot wave, we supposed that 5 main waves were
established completely in the medium term. Five main waves started from Aug
27th,2008 and finished by Feb 24th, 2009. In this period, VN Index lost 326.25
point, equivalent to 58%. The price was forming 3 correction waves by the
pattern of A B C. Comparing to the previous medium Eliot wave that was
formed in the period of Oct 10th, 2007 and Aug 27th, 2008, we suggested that
the correction would be fallen in the range value established by the
retracement of 23.8% and 38.2%. For the value, it was 320pts and 360pts.
However, 320pts was the hard resistant level for VN Index. For the cautious
sake, we supposed 320pts was the maximum point for VN Index to get on
Apr.09.
Positive view in April
On other approach, we defined A wave established at Feb 24th, 2009 and

finished by Mar 19th, 2009. It was followed by B wave established at Mar 19th,
2009 and finished by Mar 23rd, 2009. We then conducted that C wave could be
the value in the range of 300pts and 326 pts. Thus, we supposed that the
maximum and minimum value that C wave could get were 300pts and 320pts,
respectively. When C wave passed 300 pts, the next resistant level was
304pts and 310pts. Incase C wave stopped at 300 pts, the supported level
would be 260pts. We predicted that VN Index would fluctuate in the range of
260 and 310 in April.
8. The movement of VN Index on technical perspective
Source: BSC
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Monthly Report
March 2009
HASTC
9. HASTC movement in March (from 1st to 31st)
Source: BSC
HASTCs momentum was weaker than HOSEs when the number of sessions
up and down of HASTC-Index was equal. Among 22 trading sessions, there
were 11 up and 11 down sessions. However, HASTC Index had more
impressive gaining value than VN index when it reached 98.37 pts on Mar 31st,
increased by 14.41 pts (equivalent to 17.1%) as compared to the level of 83.96
pts on Feb 27th. The liquidity on HASTC in Feb.09 improved sharply compared
to Feb.09 with an average trading volume of 10 million shares/session
compared to 3.97 million shares/session. In terms of trading value, HASTC
achieved VND 189.1 billion per day on average. The trading volume of foreign
investors recorded at 26.2 million shares that accounted for 11.8% of the total
market trading volume. Foreign investors did not take any role in the bullish
trend in HASTC as they did in HOSE. They bought in 3.96 million shares and
sold 22.26 million shares. The net selling of Mar.09 was 18.29 million shares,
equivalent to VND 232.5 billion. In which, they sold out mainly BCC, BVS, BTS
and PVS. The net selling shares of BCC, BVS, BTS and PVS were 7.48
million, 5.18 million, 4.89 million, and 1 million, respectively while they bought
in PVI, VNR, and KLS with net buying of 0.65 million, 0.29 million, and 0.18
million, respectively.
Impressive gaining
The bullish trend of HASTC was very clear at the first half of Mar.09. HASTC
Index much more increased than VN Index did. However, the bullish trend of
HASTC Index was weak and unclear since Mar 19th caused by the lack of
active participation of foreign investors as well as the hit of the hard resistant
level of 100pts. The cash flow rushed into HOSE which had higher profit. With
regard to individual stocks, blue-chip stocks had relatively good performance
in Mar.09 but the percentage of gains was lower than that of HOSE except
BVS, and KBC. Notably, the group of security stocks extremely increased.
Gaining percentage of HPC, BVS, and KLS were 70.6%, 50.3% and 40.2%,
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Monthly Report
March 2009
respectively. Among 10 top market caps, the percentage increase was

calculated as follows:
10. Price gaining or losing of Top ten market caps
Tickers
% gain or lost in Feb
% gain or lost in Mar
ACB
-11.0%
15.9%
KBC
-47.0%
66.1%
PVI
-17.8%
17.3%
PVS
-12.3%
8.4%
VCG
-5.2%
6.8%
VNR
13.6%
4%
BCC
-6.2%
1.9%
TBC
1.5%
16.9%
BVS
-32.5%
50.3%
BTS
-14.2%
1.1%
ACB
-11.0%
15.9%
KBC
-47.0%
66.1%
Source: BSC synthesis
Simillar to VN Index, HASTC Index has proceeded to move on a short-term
bullish trend, which was established since Feb 24th 2009. After making a new
trough record of 78.06 pts on Feb 24th, HASTC Index recovered and had a
series of gaining sessions in March. On Mar 31st, VN Index increased by
20.31pts compared to the trough, equivalent to 26%.
High results of
Top market caps
The price was supported by the blue supported line in short-term. Based on
the daily chart, the price lied over MA (11), MA (20) and MA (50). MA (11) was
moving over MA (20) and MA (50). ADX (14) reached to the value of 36 while
+DI valued 32 lied over DI valued at 18. These signals confirmed the bullish
trend in short-term. Other indicators of RSI and MACD had supported the
current trend. HASTC Index had accumulating signal with highly maintained
trading volume after the efforts was unsuccessfully to break hard resistant
level of 100pts. With volume of over 10 million stocks per session, it was highly
possible for HASTC to break through resistant level and to consolidate the
current bullish trend.On the perspective of Eliot wave, we supposed that 5
main waves were established completely in the medium term. Five main
waves started from Sep 3rd, 2008 and finished by Feb 24th, 2009. In this
period, VN Index lost 116.81 point, equivalent to 59.9%. The price was forming
3 correction waves by the pattern of A B C. Compared to the previous
medium Eliot wave that was formed in the period of Nov 2nd, 2007 and Sep 4th,
2008, we suggested that the correction would be fall in the range value
established by the retracement of 23.8% and 38.2%. For the value, it was
107pts and 125pts.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
Another approach, we defined A wave established at Feb 24th, 2009 and

finished by Mar 19th, 2009. It was followed by B wave established at Mar 19,
2009 and finished by Mar 23rd, 2009. We then conducted that C wave would
be the value in the range of 116pts and 130pts. Thus, we supposed that the
maximum and minimum value that C wave could get were 107pts and 130pts,
respectively. When C wave passed 100 pts, the next resistant level was
105pts, 110pts, and 120pts. Incase C wave stopped and trend was changed,
the supported level would be 90pts. We predicted that HASTC Index would
fluctuate in the range of 90pts and 110pts in Apr.09.
11. The movement of HASTC Index on technical
Source: BSC synthesis

Industries in consideration
To deeply understand the stock market, we divided all listed companies into 10
major industries. These industries represent for 10 main sectors of the
economy, including: Oil & Gas, Basic materials, Industry goods & services,
Consumer goods, Health care, Consumer services, Utilities, Finance,
Telecommunications and Technology. These industries were divided based on
Industrial Classification Benchmark in accordance with the standard of Down
Jones and FTSE. From the classification, we built the set of industrial indices
of ten industries. Industrial indices were calculated based on market capital
that helped us to see the operation and development of each industry in the
economy. The movement of each industrial index indicated the performance of
enterprises in each sector. In our examination, the period of observation was
from Oct 2nd, 2008 to Mar 31st 2009. And we selected the time base at Oct 2nd,
2008. At Oct 2nd, 2008, all industrial indices valued at 100 pts.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
10 sectors in invesment
portfolios
In Mar.09, Vietnam stock market had a sign of rebound when it rose

from 247.66 pts dated Mar 2nd,2009 to 280.67 pts dated Mar 31st, 2009
owing to the good news from both international and domestic markets.
Following the uptrend of Vietnam stockk market, most industrial indices
also increased. As of Mar 31st, 2009, utilities index reached 77.22 pts
which was the highest level among industrial indices. The second place
belonged to Consumer goods industry when it also reached 65.68 pts.
However in the period of economic contraction, real estate industry was
the hard hit sector when real estate index was only 45.72 pts that was
the lowest level among industrial indices (because financial industry was
broad that includes four subsectors: bank, insurance,
insuran real estate and
financial services. Therefore, we applied only real estate index with the
aim to have more detail understanding of one industry).
12. Industrial indice in March, 2009
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sector indices
Oil & Gas
Basic Materials
Consumer Goods
Industrials
Utilities
Consumer Services
Health Care
Financials
Technology
2/3/2009
58.81
46.12
62.73
55.54
67.36
41.62
61.9
52.95
47.54
31/3/2009
62.91
52.95
68.73
63.59
83.68
51.41
63.26
61.76
50.3
Source: BSC
Due to stable price
prices,, stocks of utilities sector did not get investors attention when
the volume transaction reduced significantly in Mar
Mar.09.
13. The volume transaction of utilities sector 1st quarter 2009

1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
January
Febuary
March
Source: BSC synthetic

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Monthly Report
March 2009
14. The volume transaction of real estate

ate and consumer goods in Mar. 09
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
January
Febuary
Consumer Goods
March
real estate
Source: BSC
Particularly, in the period of market rebound in Mar
Mar.09,
09, real estate
e
sector got
investors attention as the volume transaction increased significantly. As presented
in the above figure, the volume transaction of real estate sector in Mar.09
Mar increased
by over 200% compared to the last month. Real estate share received investors
attention because the investors expected that real estate sector will recover soon
when economic growth accelerates. Besides, the real estate sector also received
the special attention of foreign investors when they aggressively bought in.
15. The net trading volume of foreign investors

ors of Q1.09
50000000
40000000
30000000
3 sectors in views
20000000
10000000
0
January
Febuary
March
Source: BSC
Utilities: defensive sector well performed in the economic downturn

M
Most
ost enterprises belong to utility sector on HOSE are electricity operators. Many of
them had good performance in March due to four following reasons:
(1) Vietnamese Govern
Government
ment decided to increase electricity retail price at 8.92% in
Feb.09. The decision was the step one in the process of upgrading electricity retail
price in Viet Nam to outside platform. Electricity producers can expect higher output
price from EVN in mediu
medium
m term. Big electricity operators profit rebounded
rebound from
exchange rate: PPC - the biggest electricity on HOSE - will
ill gain from the decrease
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Monthly Report
March 2009
of JPY/USD rate. In 2008 PPC had an unfortunate year 2008 due to the over 1000
VND billion provisional losses from exchange rate.
(2) Demand will still be over supply in 2009: Although there were 2,000 MW
addition to the total power system in 2008, demand is still over the supply.
Shortage of power supply was attributed to the delays in power projects, shortage
of capital, and breakdowns of newly operating power generators. There are also a
lot of new huge projects in steel and cement areas which put more 3/3 pressure on
power demand. Competitive power market plans: Government plans to operate the
competitive power generation market at the end of 2009. While 90-95% will
continue to be sold via PPAs, 5%-10% of the output of power generation
companies will be sold at a competitive price to EVN. This will help power
generation companies, to a certain extent, to be more flexible in setting the price
(setting higher price during the peak season, and lower during low seasons) and
therefore better manage their revenues and profits.
(3) Stable production: Major power generation companies enjoyed growth in power
production due to favorable weather conditions and total capacity mobilization to fill
the supply-demand gap (National Load Dispatch Center and Power companies are
in charge of power production allocation among power generation companies.
However, due to power shortage in the past years the National Load Dispatch
Center has been encouraging power producers to operate at full capacity).
Utilities: defensive
sector
(4) Power generation companies were not much affected by volatility in fuel input:
Power generation companies sell power to EVN via long term Power Purchase
Agreements (PPA) with a fixed price (hydro power companies have fixed rates for
dry and rainy season, while thermal power companies have fixed core price and
part adjusted to fuel price). The fuel price hike risk therefore was transferred to
EVN. Some enterprises sell electricity to EVN in USD price, so the appreciation of
USD helped them raise their revenue.
Consumer goods industry gain thanks to domestic demand

Consumer goods industry involves 7 groups: Automobiles & Parts, Beverages,
Food Producers, Household Goods & Home Construction, Leisure Goods,
Personal Goods, and Tobacco. Most stocks listed in HOSE in this industry belong
to beverage and food producers. These stocks strongly surged in this month due to
following reasons:
(1) Total retail sale of goods and services in the first two months of 2009
continued to grow. Despite negative effects of financial crisis and global economy
recession, total retail sale of goods and services in the first two months of 2009
reached VND 179.8 billions, increased by 20,6% y-o-y. This is a spot light of the
economy and it pointed out that domestic demand grew stably.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
(2) Decrease in input prices. 2008 is the year of significant volatility in raw
materials. In H1.08, it seemed that every raw material went up. Many food
producers had to face very high input prices, resulting in high costs of productions.
Before dropping back in the fourth quarter. In Q1.09, most raw material prices
retreated to the platform of H1.09. Many food producers were able to increase
profit because of lower production costs. For example: TAC is expected to gain
high profit in first quarter of 2009 thanks to a decrease in palm oil prices.
(3) Change in customers consumption preference. The world financial crisis has
switched consumption preference from high value added products to lower ones.
Many Vietnamese chose high quality domestic products instead of import ones.
Therefore it did help to promote sale of consumer goods enterprises. Supporting
from the Government: Vietnamese Government has implemented its first stimulus
package of US$ 1 billion used for loan interest supporting. Financial costs of many
enterprises in this industry will decrease and it will help them to boost profit.
Real estate has not lumped enough, real estate industry had worst
performance in March
Consumer goods highly

gained
(1) Hoang Anh Gia Lai ignited the revolution of house price decreases: In March,
Hoang Anh Gia Lai announced that they decided to discount price of Hoang Anh
River View 40% from 2,350 USD/m2 to 1,350 USD/m2 and discounted Phu Hoang
Anh 30% from 1,800 USD to 1,250 USD/m2. This unprecedented action has ignited
the revolution of house price decrease and changed all sale strategies of big
developers. In the aspect of consumers, they were socked when realized that
almost real estate has sold productions to them with huge profit. They will be more
prudent and not repeat mistake in the past.
(2) The gap between price and real demand affordability: Although housing price
has felt sharply, especially high-grade houses with 20-40% decreases, costs of a
good house or small land in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh city were far from affordability of
medium income people. The gap restricted the volume of transactions and sale of
real estate enterprises. There was no sign pointing out that the drop of real-estate
prices of condominiums and projects located on the outskirts will rebound soon.
These projects did not serve the accommodation demand in short term such as
Nam An Khanh of Sudico which faced the difficulty of selling lands.
(3) Buyers were waiting for further discounts from real estate developers: In the
late of 2008 and the early of 2009, a lot of projects was run in Hanoi and Ho Chi
Minh city. The supply was significantly supplemented. Buyers had more choices
and they were not satisfied with the old price. They were not in hurry and waiting
more discounts.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
Market comments
Vietnam stock market has performed well in Mar.09 after a series of decreasing
sessions since Aug.08. A solid upward trend was the mainstream of the market
during the month. The market has yielded arbitrage profit margins for most
investors who merely joined the market. The reasons underlying the markets
rebound were likely to be diverse interpretations.
Real estate worst

performance
We saw a close link between the overseas and domestic stock markets. The
advancement in the internal stock market (14.2% on HOSE and 17.1% on HASTC
m-o-m) was continuously driven by the impressive rebound of the stock markets in
the United States, in European countries and Asian nations. DJ Industry Index,
S&P 500 Index, FTSE Index, CAC Index, DAX Index and NIKKEI 225 Index gained
their m-o-m paces of 7.7%, 8.5%, 2.5%, 3.9%, 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively.
Potential business signals such as an increase in turnovers and prices of the U.S
real estates, positive profit margins of the U.S banking sectors in Q1.09 or
economic packages offered by every government to buy bad assets and nonperforming loans of financial institutions moved away great concerns on the world
severe economic depression. The recession seemed to be over and most business
indicators did not turn out as bad as expected. Hence, there has been a strong
belief that the world economy already experienced the trough of economic
recession in Mar.09 and stepped on an initial stage of recovery.
Vietnam stock market was mainly backed by the psychology of investors. In fact,
we did not find any positive signal of macro-economy improvements in Mar.09. Two
major economic pillars (FDI and exports) that had dynamic effects on the economic
growth did poorly underperform. CPI tended to be decreased, implying that the
domestic demand was still weak compared to the aggregate supply. However, the
market prices of most stocks decreased faster than actual economic values of
equity, resulting in investors expectation of a stronger appreciation in the stock
market in short-term. Moreover, the stimulus package of 4% interest subsidy
offered by Vietnamese Government enhanced the expectation of a brighter future
for most high financial leverage enterprises to reduce their cost of capital. It is likely
that the bottom of Vietnam stock market has gone and the market hardly freely
dropped as it did in Feb.08.
Highlights of March
The movement of cash flows in the economy also provided us several

explanations. The slump in import demand in Mar.09 implied that the economy had
very low demand for materials for its production. Therefore, in the meantime, a
surge in demand for 4% interest subsidy loans (within one month of implementing
the program, 42% of total favored credit loans has been disbursed) was hardly
poured into production sectors of the economy, which was partly believed to
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Monthly Report
March 2009
finance deals in stock market. Moreover, an average low level of deposit rates in
banking system, high risk investments with low profit margin in real-estate sector
and unprecedented prices in gold also encouraged investors to move their cash
flows into the stock markets.
Every March and April is usually a season of general meetings of shareholders and
dividend distribution. At which, there normally has incremental benefits of
shareholders after key policies would be soon approved. Moreover, business plans
and expected business results of the whole year are also disclosed, which are
expected to increase shareholders values. A higher expectation of improving
forward EPS and ROE did cause the stock market rebound in this month
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Monthly Report
March 2009
LISTED COMPANIES HIGHLIGHTS

Business expansion trend
Gold trading trend
Together with ACB, Viet A Bank, Eximbank, VP Bank, Sacombank has put into its
new business - gold trading throughout the Sacombank Jewelery (SBJ) which
launched on Mar. 5th 2009. Another new form of expanding business is to join in the
real estate sector of outsiders such as Viglacera under Glass and Porcelain
Viglacera, ACBR Asian Commercial Bank Real Estate Company; VPReit (VP
Bank). Most of them have promoted various kinds of operations. Owing to financial
power, Viglacera concentrated on modernizing equipments such as onlinesearching computers, imagine information listing and sector-managed information
system. ACBR also enhanced PR programs for distance trading. The trend might
bring new opportunities for investors.
Coal enterprises effectively operated
Coal enterprises
effectively operated
In 2008, most coal companies gained their high assets, revenue growth rates,
especially, profit growth rate reached 97.76%, only following Spain (384%), U.S
(128,92%). On average, NPAT of NBC (Nui Beo Coal JSC), TC6 (Coc Sau Coal
JSC), THT (Ha Tu Coal JSC), TCS (Cao Son Coal JSC), TDN (Deo Nai Coal JSC)
increased by 77.43% compared to the figures of 2007. TC6 and THT had the
highest returns of 162.03% and 163.27%, respectively. Except TC6, the remains
had big total coal reverses which could maintain effectiveness and stability for long
term. EPS surged at 69.88% on average, notably EPS of NBC lifted up to 13.176
VND per share. Moreover, P/E and P/B continued reducing and lowering than P/E,
P/B of overall market: P/E dropped by 7 times in 2007 to 2.4 times while average
market P/E lost -7.8 times on HOSE and 5.8 times on HASTC; P/B subsided to
1.05 times from 1.4 times in 2007 which was much competitive than 1.8 times of
HOSE and 0.9 times of HASTC. Excluding U.S and England, in comparison with
other international market such as China (P/E of coal sector: 205 times), India
(86.71 times), Indonesia (77.93 times), P/E of Vietnamese coal sector considered
the lowest level.
First merging on official market

Song Da 6.04 (S64) and Song Da 6.06 (SSS) intended to be merged by Song Da 6
(SD6) the shareholder with 41% charter capital of S64 - in order to implement big
projects with potential resources and labors. SD6 has carried out the advisory
services and legal procedures for shareholders benefits relating to the deal.
Listed enterprises
made 1st merging
Power Highly-potential sector

According to the latest survey, the power demand of Vietnam has been giving up
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Monthly Report
March 2009
so the investment demand of power sectors become much potential. The biggest
listed power firms PPC (Pha Lai Thermal Power), VSH (Vinh Son Song Hinh Hydro
Power JSC), TBC (Thac Ba Hydro electricity JSC) have contributed mainly for
national power capacity. Notably, PPC has current capacity of 7.028 million Kwh
per annum, accounted for 10.96% of the whole-country electricity capacity. With an
increasing electricity prices (to 948.5 VND/Kwh) from March 1st pursuant to the
Decision 21/2009/QD-TTg dated February 12th , revenues of these enterprises will
lift up. Moreover, the decline in input materials (coal) as well as the 4% interest
subsidizing will help them to reduce the cost of goods and financial expenses. In
the coming time, Vietnam will welcome new power projects of these firms as well
as other new power plants and investors could take this sector into consideration
as long-term opportunities.
Financial companies officially carried out credit-subsidized package

Implementing decision No.333/QD-TTg on March 13th which proclaimed the
participation of financial companies in credit-subsidized program for individuals and
production firms, PVFC (Petrovietnam Financial Company) will disburse VND
20,000 billion with aiding interest rate of 4% within 8 months.
17. Key indicators of 20 typical listed companies on HOSE & HASTC (as of Feb 27th, 2009)
Foreign
owned ratio
(%)
88.3%
30.00%
P/E
5.028
4.77
12.211
13,408,588,755
7.082
10.80
25.221
208.031
108.9%
47.48%
10,658,892,000
3.633
7.73
12.405
(86.697)
115.90%
17.76%
20.738
42.704
N/A
17.22%
16.014
177.843
132.80%
28.86%
N/A
(405.286)
N/A
30.81%
15.390
255.713
71.30%
30.00%
10.535
(1.001,069)
-30.00%
18.18%
4.37
16.871
330.496
93.60%
27.40%
1.063
44.21
12.552
62.660
5,007,281,949
4.431
5.75
20.693
(232.653)
114.50%
23.89%
100,000,000
3,860,000,000
4.070
9.48
10.690
10.789
22.70%
16.70%
24.800
130,083,000
3,226,058,400
2.045
12.13
20.320
(189.320)
44.70%
17.75%
SSI
22.300
133,666,671
2,980,766,763
1.909
11.68
28.597
19.060
53.40%
46.81%
PVS
24.000
100,000,000
2,400,000,000
3.546
6.77
13.238
236.818
173.80%
9.02%
Ticker
Shares
outstanding
Market cap
(VND)
ACB
24.000
632,165,378
15,171,969,72
VNM
76.500
175,275,670
DPM
28.100
379,320,000
HAG
49.800
179,814,501
8,954,762,150
PVD
54.500
132,167,504
7,203,128,968
PVF
14.100
500,000,000
7,050,000,000
STB
13.600
493,317,814
6,709,122,270
PPC
18.500
325,154,614
6,015,360,359
FPT
39.500
141,162,074
5,575,901,923
9.037
VIC
47.000
112,083,161
5,267,908,567
HPG
25.500
196,363,998
VPL
38.600
KBC
Adjusted
EPS
7.034
2.090
7.75
6.51
Profit
Q4/2008
(Bil.VND)
%
compared
to year
plan
Book
Value
(VND)
Price
(VND)
1.013,876
4.65%
Page | 26

Monthly Report
March 2009
PVI
21.000
103,550,000
2,174,550,000
2.584
8.13
22.227
(21.067)
57.10%
17.33%
ITA
15.900
135,875,147
2,160,414,837
2.294
6.93
35.000
68.011
80.40%
31.86%
DHG
103.000
19,993,500
2,059,330,500
6.851
15.03
37.925
35.159
94.50%
42.01%
VNR
29.700
67,218,440
1,996,387,668
2.699
11.00
28.376
43.742
81.90%
32.82%
VCG
12.900
149,985,150
1,934,808,435
2.061
6.26
10.465
161.428
107.90%
14.95%
Source: Securities Investment Magazine, No. 25 (653) on Feb 27, 2009 and BSC
18. Highest dividend and premium payment in Mar.09

Name
Dividend Payment Type
DAC
Viglacera Dong Anh
2008
Stock
Dividend
30%
TAC
Tuong An Oil Vegetables
2008
20%
S55
Song Da 5.05
2008
20%
DRC
Da Nang Rubber JSC
2008
19%
PIT
Petrolimex Im-Ex JSC
2008
19%
SDJ
Song Da 25 JSC
Hanoi Post and Mechanic
JSC
2008
15%
2008
15%
Ha noi Petrolimex
Rang Dong Light source &
Vacuum Flask
Hoa Phat Construction
Stone JSC
2008
13%
2nd 2008
12%
2008
10.51%
Ticker
HAS
PJC
RAL
HPS
Premium
30%
HPC
Hai Phong Securities
BCC
Bim Son Cement
2008
10%
BMP
Binh Minh Plastic
2nd, 2008
10%
Source: Cafe F.com.vn and BSCs synthetic (As of 27th Feb, 2009)
Page | 27

Monthly Report
March 2009
UNLISTED COMPANIES HIGHLIGHTS

Joint stock commercial banks with charter capital raising strategy
Promoting charter
capital raising strategy
On March 17th, Dong A bank passed the 2009 business plan and raised charter
capital plan from VND 2,880 billion to VND 3,400 billion, of which VND 520 billion
will be issued for current shareholders following the rate 100:18 in Jun.09. Sai Gon
Bank will increase its charter capital from VND 2,047 billion to VND 3,374 billion
through a bond issuance for shareholders and foreign partners with converting rate
of 1:100 within 13 months. Dong A Bank and Sai Gon Bank together expected
dividend of 12% in 2009. Especially, ABBank was planning to raise its register
capital from VND 2,705 billion to VND 3,482 billion following 2 terms: (1) offering 5%
for Maybank (Malaysia) in May.09; (2) Using surplus funds and dividend payment of
15% in Oct.09.
Banks and enterprises has been deeply co-operating
Tight co-operation
BIDV and Vietnam Airlines held comprehensive agreement signing celebrate for the
period of 2009-2011 and credit agreement for major projects of Vietnam Airlines.
According to those, BIDV will arrange credit amount up to VND 7,000 billion for
feasible projects of Vietnam Airlines, of which VND 2,000 billion for short term credit
and VND 5,000 billion for long-term one. Some big projects of 2009 will be financed:
Amending big-body A75 planes, Fast Delivery Good Processing Centre, Production
Factory for Plane Amendment, Pilot Training Project. On March 17th, Vietnam
International Bank (VIB) and Post & Telecoms Insurance JSC (PTI) would together
set up and contribute in effective investment projects, especially banking and
insurance sector to increase value for customers. Maritime Bank and Asian Gold
Company (AGC) have officially signed the co-operation agreement on gold trading.
Maritime bank will become order-receiving agency of AGC and give credit for
customers of AGC.
Insurance mostly raised its value, enhanced bancassurance
Insurance: a year of
In 2008, most insurance enterprises were remarked as gainers, most of profits came
from deposits and financial investment. However, the profit from traditional insurance
marked high growth. According to Ministry of Finance, total revenue of the whole
insurance field recorded VND 26,120 billion, increased by 8.38% compared to the
figure of 2007, of which life insurance fees accounted for VND 10.855 billion, non-life
insurance fees got VND 10.339 billion. Prudential Vietnam maintained its leading
position with VND 4.269 billion revenue of 2008, 7% higher than the number of
2007. Moreover, bancassurance (banking and insurance co-operation) was
regarded as a vital factor for value added and diversifying products and service.
Techcombank, OceanBank, HSBC almost had impressive bancassurance products
Page | 28

Monthly Report
March 2009
success
such as Living Assurance-Prosperous, Living Assurance-Priodical Accumulating,

Assets Insurance, Key-personel Insurance. Recently, ABBank has also introduced
Wholelife Savings-Insurance YOUlife. This co-operation would bring higher
benefits for their customers.
300 million USD of Government Bonds were officially issued

From Mar 18th to Mar 30th, the first time USD-dominated Government Bonds was
auctioned through HASTC, following Decision No.505/QD-BTC on the 1st term-2009
bonds issuing with the value of 300 million USD on 3 kinds of terms: 1, 2, 3 years,
USD 100 million for each term. The first auction was successful with 100% bonds
sold with the value of USD 100 million on March 20th, interest rate was 3% per
annum; the second one got 80% value on March 24th, interest: 3.3% per annum;
USD 50.01 million, was the successful amount of the third auction session with the
interest rate of 3.6% per annum. Total successful value of this bond issuance was
USD 230.11 million.
OTC some positive signals out of gloominess
OTC: New powers
The cancellation and unsuccess IPOs of March made investors unsatisfied

However, OTC of March market saw positive movements. The advance in finance
and banking was considered an attractive point of the month. Thus, from the
beginning of March, some potential tickers of OTC were hunted such as Eximbank,
KienLong Bank at the price of VND 12.800-13.200 and VND 9.300, respectively.
Vietcombank increased by 10%. For the first two months, many banks registered
high business results, which was a positive signal. Besides, OTC market did also
welcome more shares and bonds from banks. Social Policy Bank auctioned VND
2,000 billion 2-year bonds which were guaranteed by the Government. Pacific Bank
made its public offering of nearly 57 million shares. In the middle of month, thanks to
a soft rebound of listed market and high dividend ratios, tickers on OTC were also
collected with the gains of 20-50%, such as DIC group, Dam Sen Water park, Que
Huong Hotel, Bong Sen Hotel, Middle Area Hydro power, Mekophar Pharmacy.
Although it was not stable rebound due to the unsound changes in the end of the
month, investors seemed to be more encouraging to wait for coming IPOs of
banking and finance firms, notably the 29.81 million shares VietinbankSc IPO and
9.7 million shares Agribank Leasing I in the middle of Apr.09.
Page | 29

Monthly Report
March 2009
19. OTC Price list (Up date to 27th Feb) - VND

Charter Capital
(Bill VND)
Current Price
Trend
Habubank
2,000
9-10
VIB Bank
2,000
11-12
Eximbank
4,410
14-15
Vietcombank
12,100
32-33
6,800
17-18
Company
Banking
Insurance - Finance
Vietnam Insurance Co. (BAO VIET)
Vietnam Petroleum Drilling Investment
11-12
Pharmacy, healthcare equipment

The Far East Pharmacy Joint Stock Company
70
45-50
MEKOPHAR Chemical Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company
N/A
55-58
200.25
18-19
Investment and Construction JSC No 8
40
5-6
Construction Investment & Development Jsc (DIC)
370
23-24
Sai Gon Investment and Trading of real estate Jsc
540
13-14
117
9-10
Real Estate
Investment and Trading of real estate Jsc- Intresco
Heavy Industry
Dinh Vu Steel Joint Stock Company
40-42
250
7-8
N/A
17-18
Truong Hai Auto JSC

LILAMA 451
Light industry - Plastic and Rubber
Rang Dong Plastic Joint Stock Company
Southern Rubber Joint Stock Company
PhuocHoa Rubber Joint Stock Company
17-18
813
19-20
The Southern Hydro power Joint Stock Company
687
3-4
Ba Ria Thermal power Plant
604
10-11
Thac Mo Hydro power Joint Stock Company
700
13-14
Construction
Toan Thinh Phat Jsc
N/A
11-12
Cotec Construction Joint Stock Company
35
53-55
Quoc Cuong Gia Lai Corporation
N/A
18-19
SaiGon Co-op
N/A
15-16
Hydroelectric - Thermoelectric
Corporation
Page | 30

Monthly Report
March 2009
Food & Beverage

Sabeco
2318
23-24
The Western SaiGon Beverage Joint Stock Company
145
13-14
KinhDo Ice-cream Joint Stock Company
30
27-29
88.93
19-20
80
21-22
Vietnam Ocean shipping Jsc VOSCO
1,400
12-13
Northern Ocean shipping Jsc NOSCO
200
12-13
Commerce& Importing-Exporting
Vietnam No.1 General Export&Import Jsc
Ha Anh Export &Import Jsc
Transportation- Dock Warehouse
Source:vir.com.vn
IPO SCHEDULE
IPO CANCELLATION
Initial
Price
(Dong/
Share)
Reason of
cancelation
13,397,472
10.200
1,919,900
10,000
Not enough
investors
Not enough
conditions
15,826,90
0
10,100
Company name
Chartered
Capital
(bil. VND)
Auction
Times
Register Date
Offering
Volume
(Share)
Vietinbank Securities Company
900
1st
9th 24th Mar
Bus manufacturing and

assembly
54
2nd
13-27Feb
Ba Ria Vung Tau Construction

and Urban Development JSC
300
2nd
Offering
Volume for
Foreigners
Not enough
conditions
IPO RESULTS
Company name
Binh Thuan
Tr Travel Company
Auction
date
Offered
volume
(share)
Bidding
volume
(share)
Initial
Price
(VND/
share)
No. of
bidder
Highest
successful
price
Lowest
successful
price
Average
successful
price
Mar20th
2,845,500
4,390,500
10,000
20
10,200
10,000
10,071
2,845
1,525,600
1,525,600
10,100
29
14,000
10,100
10,171
15,517
Viettel Post Co.ltd
Successful
value
(bil.VND)
IPO SCHEDULE
Chartered
Capital
(bil. VND)
Auction
Times
Register Date
Auction
Date
Offering Volume
(Share)
Initial Price
(Dong/
Share)
BIGIMEXCO
15
1st
Feb 26-Mar16
Mar 20th
450,000
14,000
Lam Dong Travel JSC
200
1st
Mar 27th
7,725,000
12,000
VinaTrans JSC
255
1st
Mar 31st
12,741,400
10,300
Company name
Page | 31

Monthly Report
March 2009
Mekonimex JSC
150
2nd
Apr 9th
10,446,050
10,000
Agribank Leasing I
350
1st
Apr 10th
9,741,300
10,300
386,386
1st
Apr 15th
5,640,890
10,500
900
1st
Apr 22nd
19,192,106
10.200
Machinery & Appurtenances

Company
VietinbankSc
24Mar-8April
Source: HOSE and HASTC
NEWLY LISTED COMPANIES
HASTC
Ticker
HLC
Company name
Listed volume
(share)
Charter capital
(bil VND)
First trading date
Ha Lam Coal
9,300,000
93
March 5th
Reference Price
(VND)
HOSE
Company name
Listed volume
(share)
Charter Capital
(bil.VND)
First
trading date
BCI
Binh Chanh Construction JSC
54,200,000
542
March 16th
27,000
PNJ
Phu Nhuan Jewlery JSC
30,000,000
300
March 23rd
40,000
HT2
Ha Tien Cement JSC
88,000,000
880
March 26th
20,000
Ticker
Reference Price
(VND)
Source: HOSE and HASTC
TRADING OF MAJOR/ INTERNAL SHAREHOLDERS

Ticker
Trader
Position
No of
share
owned
Bidding
/ selling
No of
registering
shares
No of
share
traded
shares
after
trading
Current
shares
own %
Trading
time
ABT
Sai Gon Securities
Shareholder
675,176
Bought
241,990
917,166
11.32%
16Mar-23Mar
ALT
La The Nhan
Member of BOD
144,300
Buying
13,840
200,000
4.05%
16Mar-15June
Shareholder
2,924,566
Sold
490,000
2,434,566
29.46%
20Feb-26Feb
Shareholder
1,599,528
Buying
454,000
2,053,528
24.58%
16Feb-27Mar
Nguyen Thi Phuc Lam
Chairwoman
25,400
Buying
11,000
36,400
0.08%
19Feb-19Mar
Nguyen Thi Phuc Lam
Chairwoman
36,400
Buying
13,600
50,000
0.11%
Nguyen Quang Vinh
General Director
15,500
Buying
42,000
57,500
CAD
Tran Minh Hoang
Member of BOD
81,875
Buying
25,000
106,875
1.34%
3Mar-6Mar
CJC
COM
Ngo Viet Hai
General Director
269,533
Buying
20,000
289,533
Sacombank
Shareholder
445,750
Selling
21,750
424,000
4.92%
17-Mar
CTC
Dinh Van Ngoc Ha
Related person
Bought
20,000
9,300
0.39%
13Feb-13Mar
DAE
Huynh Ba Van
Chairman
Buying
10,000
BMC
BVS
Binh Dinh Im-Ex ServiceInvestment

Binh Dinh Committee
Province Office
490,000
25,000
9,300
10,000
23Mar-21April
25Mar-25April
24Mar-20April
25Mar-25April
Page | 32

Monthly Report
March 2009
DCL
Nguyen Thi Giang
Related person
48,000
Selling
20,000
28,000
DIC
Dinh Ngoc Ninh
Related person
570,936
Bought
570,936
25Mar-25April
DPC
Tran Quang Dung
Chairman
7,690
Buying
50,000
57,690
2.57%
5March-31Dec
Nguyen Huu Tuyen

Kitmc Worldwide VN RSP
Balanced
Member of BOS
Buying
5,000
5,000
Shareholder
833,506
Buying
60,000
382,597
Bao Viet Securities
Shareholder
50,007
Selling
50,000
DRC
FBT
FPC
FPT
HCC
FPC
HDC
Chen Li Hsun
Related person
5,353,336
Sold
Truong Dinh Anh

Quang Nam Cosntruction
JSC
Member of BOD
2,369,026
Sold
Shareholder
835,380
Selling
Nguyen Thi Thanh Ha
Related person
263,263
Buying
Nguyen Thi Thanh Ha
Related person
263,263
Buying
Doan Huu Thuan
Member of BOD
440,592
Bought
2,600,000
2,600,00
0
27Mar-24April
16 Mar-31Dec
2.49%
29Aug-18Mar
1April-29April
2,753,336
8.34%
4Mar-5Mar
369,000
2,000,026
1.42%
835,380
20Mar-20April
100,000
363,263
4.45%
23Mar-23Sep
100,000
363,263
23Mar-23Sep
76,550
517,142
21Oct.08-21Mar
2Feb-31Mar
HLC
HPG
HJS
HUT
HUT
KKC
Pham Cong Huong
Director
1,300
Buying
10,000
11,300
5March-5April
Nguyen Thi Hong
Related person
193,000
Selling
160,000
33,000
4March-4April
VOF Investment
Shareholder
14,784,000
Sold
4,224,000
Bui Trong Tinh
Technique Director
Bought
20,000
Pham Van Mien
Chief of BOS
90,577
Selling
40,000
50,577
Related person
200,000
Buying
1,000,000
Tran Xuan Truong
Vice Director
20,540
Buying
10,000
Vietnam Investment ltd
Shareholder
728,200
Selling
LICOGI
Ninh Thuan Contruction
Develop.
Nguyen Quoc Khanh
Shareholder
1,284,000
Selling
KSH
L62
LCG
LCG
LGC
3,385,26
0
20
11,389,740
5.80%
28Aug08-28Feb
20,000
0.36%
12Feb-26Feb
1,200,000
10.20%
10Mar-10May
30,540
1.02%
6Mar-6Apirl
60,000
668,200
4.91%
11-16Mar
200,000
1,084,000
7.97%
7April-7Jul
Shareholder
370,770
Bought
19,060
Chairman
175,800
Bought
39,200
Tran Thanh Tung
Chief of BOS
29,638
Buying
11,000
40,638
Trinh Huu Minh

PCA International Funds
SPC
Dinh Quang Chien
Vice Chairman
80,058
Bought
20,760
Shareholder
531,240
Sold
Member of BOD
1,011,920
Bought
Nguyen Thi Mai
Shareholder
802,160
NTL
Dinh Quang Chien
Member of BOD
PAN
PGC
PGS
NBB
Saigon Securities
Shareholder
LGC
LTC
MCP
MCP
NKD
MCP
NTL
NTL
30Mar-30April
389,830
39,200
215,000
23-Mar
8.60%
6Feb-27Feb
100,818
1.90%
3Mar-25Mar
180,000
351,240
2.86%
26Feb-12Mar
29,790
1,041,710
Bought
54,270
856,430
1,011,920
Bought
29,790
1,041,710
368,750
Buying
331,300
700,050
5March-5May
24Oct.08-31Jan
04Feb-18Mar
24Oct.08-31Jan
10%
18Mar-18April
Bao Viet Securities
Shareholder
19,348
Selling
19,340
1April-29April
Petrovietnam
Parent company
11,869,900
Selling
11,869,900
26Arpil
PNC
S55
Bao Viet Securities
Shareholder
116,010
Selling
116,010
30Mar-27April
Nguyen Thi Huong
Related person
15,100
Buying
15,000
30,100
9March-9April
SGD
Nguyen Thi Lan Phuong
Chief Accountant
Buying
10,000
SGD
PVI
Shareholder
124,300
Sold
18,200
106,100
8.28%
23-Mar
SGT
SGT
SJ1
SFC
SJ1
SRA
ST8
SJ1
Merrill Lynch International
Shareholder
187,490
Sold
18,030
169,490
9.59%
18April.07-23Feb
Tran Thi Hoai Thu
Related person
50,000
Selling
50,000
Hoang Thi Ngoc Huyen
Related person
Bought
10,880
10,880
Hoang Thi Ngoc Huyen
Related person
10,880
Buying
20,000
30,880
Nguyen The Son
Member of BOD
29,800
Sold
10,000
19,800
Pham Thi Mai Duyen
Vice Chairwoman
1,419,851
Buying
26,810
1,446,661
ST8
STB
Pham Thi Mai Duyen
Vice Chairwoman
3,000,000
Bought
26,810
1,446,661
Ree Corporation
Shareholder
23,879,113
Sold
3,000,000
20,879,113
STB
Nguyen Thi Mai Thanh
Shareholder
23,879,113
Bought
3,000,000
STL
Song Da 1 JSC
Shareholder
1,037,400
Sold
100,000
TBC
Vietnam Electricity
Shareholder
32,385,000
Selling
13,335,000
19,050,000
10Mar-10April
TBC
TBC
TBH
TLT
Vietnam Electricity
Shareholder
32,385,000
Selling
13,335,000
19,050,000
10Mar-10April
Vietnam Electricity
Shareholder
32,385,000
Selling
13,335,000
19,050,000
3,000,00
0
100,000
10,000
5March-04April
26Mar-26June
1.98%
20Feb-20Mar
9Mar-13Mar
09Mar-16Mar
4.08%
09Oct-2March.09
9.37%
13-Mar
20,879,113
937,400
23Mar-23 June
22Dec.08-19Mar
9Oct.08-2Mar
30%
12Mar-20Mar
Page | 33

Monthly Report
March 2009
TS4
Ho Thi Ha
Related person
96,930
Buying
10,000
106,930
TSC
TMS
TNG
TNG
Le Minh Phuong
ThienHai Invesment
Commerce
Nguyen Huy Hoang
Chief Accountant
Buying
5,000
5,001
Shareholder
384,064
Bought
49,430
433,494
6.82%
18-Mar
Chief of BOS
193,803
Selling
20,000
173,083
3.20%
2March-2April
VC6
Tran Thi Ngoc Oanh

Vietnam Petroleum
Insurance
Nguyen Viet Thao
Related person
Buying
10,000
10,000
Shareholder
184,980
Selling
23,180
161,800
8.02%
Vice Director
Buying
50,000
50,000
0.60%
2March-2Sep
VC7
VDL
Nguyen Trong Tan
Chairman
78,587
Buying
10,000
88,587
1.77%
9March-9April
Thanh Hung Commerce
Shareholder
125,500
Buying
60,000
185,500
VFMVF1
Tran Thanh Tan
Chairman
200,000
Buying
50,000
250,000
0.00%
23Mar-29April
VFMVF4
Tran Thanh Tan
Chairman
Buying
50,000
50,000
0.06%
23Mar-29April
VID
VID
VIP
VNS
VNE
Bui Quang Man
Chairman
143,000
Bought
300,000
443,000
16-Mar
Bui Quang Man
Chairman
443,000
Buying
500,000
943,000
20Mar-20Jul
TPH
TSC
21Mar-21April
11-31March
4March-4April
23-Mar
16Mar - 11April
Le Thi Huan
Related person
25,000
Buying
10,000
35,000
Dang Phuoc Thanh
Chairman
3,000,000
Buying
500,000
3,500,000
Dang Thanh Duy
Related person
1,800,000
Bought
500,000
2,300,000
27Feb-13Mar
Dang Thanh Duy
Related person
2,300,000
Buying
400,000
2,700,000
20Mar-20April
Chairman
3,500,000
Buying
600,000
4,100,000
Shareholder
Buying
380,000
380
Related person
161,511
Selling
38,610
122,901
Shareholder
9,962,210
Buying
14,037,790
24,000,000
VSH
Dang Phuoc Thanh

Oil Vegetables Commerce
JSC
Ly Le Hoa
Future Investment and
Commerce
Sai Gon Securities
Shareholder
6,835,947
Bought
466,058
7,302,005
VSH
Sai Gon Securities
Shareholder
7,302,005
Sold
333,790
6,968,215
VNS
VNS
VNS
VNS
VPK
VPK
VPL
26Mar-24June
20.59%
27Feb-13Mar
20Mar-20April
5%
2March-23May
25Mar-23May
24%
28Oct-27Feb.09
12Jan-23Mar
5.07%
12Jan-23Mar
Source: BSC
Page | 34

Monthly Report
March 2009
RECOMMENDATIONS
The impressive rebound of Vietnam stock market in later of Mar.09 inspired equity investors to return and actively
participate in the market after a long gloomy period since Aug.08. The recovery is likely to create a dynamic
momentum for the market afterward.
Nevertheless, we do concern about the sustainability of the short-term bullish trend when the advancement in the
market prices of most stocks at late March went beyond the pace of fundamental improvement in equities of
shareholders. A short-term bearish trend is likely to take place in Q2.09. It is supposed that individual investors were
over-optimistic at the end of March by merely observing upward-market movements, which would expose investors to
higher risks of investment. Although institutional investors appeared to be cautious on each investment decision,
their roles seemed to be very dim during the recovery period. Positive signals from the macro-economy in March
were quite fragile. The unique factor supporting a 3.1% GDP growth rate in Q1.09 was a 29.2% surge in the total
value of retailing goods and services compared to that of year 2008. The efficiency and effectiveness of the 4%
interest subsidized program by the Government is still a question. Meanwhile, most of major economic pillars
performed the negative growth. The total export revenue ex-precious metals and stones were actually down 15% y-oy and the total import turnover was 45% lower from the level of 2008, for instance.
An evaluation on the market's current earning multiplier would also confirm the forecast of a bearish trend in Q2.09. It
is highly possibility of price to earnings of overall market (P/E) in 2009 is expected to stand from 12.x to 13.x when
the market reached to a range of 320pts - 360pts. It implies an average market yield of 7.6% - 8.3% for one-year
holding period except for an appreciation in stocks' prices, which is lower than current deposit rates for the same
duration. In addition, the multiplier becomes higher than those of other regional stock markets in Thailand, Singapore
and Indonesia.
From the perspective of the technical analysis, the adjusted waves of the market were distributed in a Fibonacci band
from 23.6% to 38.2% (*), equivalent to 312pts to 360pts. From that, VN Index will move on an increasing pattern if it
is supported by further positively economic information or vice versa. Otherwise, the retracement will be proper in the
band. Every portfolio would be very risky when VN Index steps on the upper side of the band. Therefore, we
anticipate that distribution activities strongly occur in the band and the 360 pts threshold would be a solid resistance
for VN Index to break through in Apr.09. Similar to VN Indexs, the retracement of HASTC Index would fall in a
Fibonacci band from 23.6% to 38.2% or equivalent to a range of 105.6pts - 122.6pts.
Speculation factor was very clear on the recovery. If the bottom of economic cycle was already established, the
stocks of industrial sectors such as utility would be a top priority to allocate capital. Growth and cyclical stocks will be
preferred. According to our statistics, the trading value of financial stocks in Mar.09 ranked the first post, accounted
for 27% of total market trading value, which was followed by consumption, industrial and real-estate stocks in
succession of 23%, 14% and 12%. As to foreign investors, we found that net buying value of financial and industrial
stocks accounted for 14% of total net buying value in Mar.09. Financial stocks are regarded as growth stocks. When
the cash flow is poured in financial stocks at the bottom of economic cycle, it implies the high speculation.
Given a high attractiveness of the stock market to available cash flow, we forecast that VN Index and HASTC Index
could reach to thresholds of 320pts-360pts and of 105pts-122pts, respectively, in short-term. In the medium term, the
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Monthly Report
March 2009
market will be subjected to a span of slump and accumulation, possibly from May to July. VN Index and HASTC will
fluctuate in ranges of 300pts -320pts and 100pts-110pts, respectively. Our forecast is also based on a factor of time
frame. By observing recent 7 years, except for the case of 2007, VN Index increased by 6 times in April and
decreased 6 times in May, and then lost its points in consecutive months. It implies that the second quarter is
normally a hard time for the stock market.
For risk-averse and conservative investors, we suggest to hold a balance of cash and securities in Apr.09. As to
investors who are willing to take risks, we recommend to sell speculative and growing stocks and actively restructure
investment portfolios. Accumulation activities since the middle of Jun.09 were suggested for these investors.
Short-term riders should lock profit by selling gradually when VN Index and HASTC reaches 320pts and 110pts and
get out of the market when VN Index and HASTC Index reaches 360pts and 122pts, respectively. Investors having
long-term investment horizon should pay more attention to the moves of indices and focus on trading defensive
stocks such as pharmaceutical stocks that will not decrease as much as the market when the overall market declines.
(*) Both of the VN Index long-term bullish trend in the period of Aug.05 and Mar.07 and the VN Index medium bearish trend in the period of
Oct.07 had the adjusted wave, which was retraced by Fibonacci percentage of 23.6% and 38.2%.
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Monthly Report
March 2009
BIDV SECURITIES COMPANY (BSC)

BSC Head Office
10th Floor Vincom Tower
191 Ba Trieu Str Hanoi
Tel: 84 4 22200668
Fax: 84 4 22200669
www.bsc.com.vn
BSC Ho Chi Minh Branch

9th Floor 146 Nguyen Cong Tru Str
District 1, Ho Chi Minh City
Tel: 84 8 3 8128885
Fax: 84 8 3 8128510
BSC Nam Ky Khoi Nghia

Transaction Office
12-14 Nam Ky Khoi Nghia
District 1, Ho Chi Minh City
Tel: 84 8 8214803
Fax: 84 8 8214804
Hang Tre
Transaction Office
20 Hang Tre - Hoan Kiem - Ha Noi
Tel: 3 9261278, 3 9261276
Fax: 3 9261279
Research Team
Pham Xuan Anh, Nguyen Thi Thu Trang,
Do Thanh Phong,
Bui Nguyen Khoa, Nguyen Ngoc Tuan,

Vu Mai Huong,
Editor:
Vu Thang Binh
Manager of the Analysis & Research Department
Contact point:
Do Hoang Linh Manager of the Investment Advisory Department
Email: Linhdh@bsc.com.vn; Tel: 84 4 22200671
Disclaimer: The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of
opinion, are based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy completeness or correctness are not
guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were
based upon the best information then known to us, and in our opinion are fair and reasonable in the
circumstances prevailing at the time. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without
notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
any securities. BSC and other companies in the BSC and/or their officers, directors and employees may have
positions and may affect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek
to perform investment banking services for these companies. This document is for private circulation only and is
not for publication in the press or elsewhere. BSC accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential
loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The use of any information, statements forecasts and
projections contained herein shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
BIDV Securities Company (BSC)
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of BIDV Securities Company (BSC).
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Monthly Report
March 2009
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BIDV - Vietnam Stock Market 2009

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March

VIETNAM SECURITIES MARKET

Vietnam Economic Highlights .......................... 1

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

VIETNAM ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Challenges but some

Vietnam economy has experienced difficulties and challenges in Q1.09. The

CPI low purchasing

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

In addition, by observation on inter-bank interest rates, we also witnessed a soft

Source: State Bank of Vietnam

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

understandable. Moreover, the balance of payment in Mar.08 was much

SOCBs (USD) 3 months

SOCBs (USD) 6 months

SOCBs (USD) 1 year

JSCBs (USD) 6 months

JSCBs (USD) 1 year

Source: The State Bank of Vietnam

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry of Vietnam

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Surplus trade balance

Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry of Vietnam

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

FDI and ODA

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

FDI and ODA focused

infrastructure construction, especially road and hydro-electric power system and

Source: ATP Vietnam

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Foreign institutions views and domestic perspectives

terms of development level and 113/127 countries and territories in terms of

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

the process of raising its position from a low-income country to a middle-level

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

POLICY MOVE AND TREND

Easing monetary policy

Took times for

More stimulus package

The key issue is the implementation in the interest subsidized program in

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Foreign exchange policy

More flexible foreign

More flexible foreign

Some key legal updates

Key legal documents

Circular 04/2009/TT-NHNN dated 13/03/2009 on the amendment and

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

TOP ACTIVE BY VALUE

TOP ACTIVE BY VALUE

TOP ACTIVE BY VOLUME

TOP ACTIVE BY VOLUME

TOP PRICE CHANGES

TOP PRICE CHANGES

Price change (VND)

Price change (VND)

TOP BIGGEST LISTED VALUE

TOP BIGGEST LISTED VALUE

Listed value (VND)

Listed value (VND)

Source: HOSE and HASTC and BSCs synthetic

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET