Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
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<GO>
March 12 2014
SUMMARY
Market wrap: Both indexes continued the rally as demand forces overwhelmed selling forces and propelled the market. Investors boisterous conviction
remained unharmed and thus helped liquidity increase given optimistic investing atmosphere.
Macro wrap: Update on Samsung Mobile Factory
Equity wrap: Update on FPT, NTP, BMP 4Q13
MARKET WRAP
VN- I NDEX
Top 5 big caps diverged as VIC dropped 0.66%; VNM stayed flat; while BVH, GAS and MSN jumped up
under strong buying force. Real estate tickers diverged as CII, DIG, HAR, HQC, IJC, ITC, KDH, SC5, SII,
VNI, VPH tumbled down; DRH, DXG, KBC, LCG, MCG, NTL, PDR, TDC, TDH, VRC moved sideways; while
BCI, HAG, HBC, HDC, HDG, ITA, LGL, NLG, NVN, NVT, PTL, PXL, QCG, SJS, UDC advanced or even hit
ceiling in the end. Banking group also diverged as BID, EID and STB slumped; CTG remained unchanged;
while MBB and VCB hiked 0.66% and 0.97% respectively. Divergence was also seen among the securities
brokerage as HCM and SSI decreased 1.14% and 0.38% each; while AGR and BSI altogether moved up or
even scored a homerun at market close.
ITA topped of the liquidity list with over 9.45 mil shares changing hands. The ticker closed the day at
VND 8,900, up 2.3%.
MARKET MOVEMENTS
On HOSE
HNX- I NDEX
Value: VND 1,111.9 bn
Foreigner (net): VND (2.9) bn
588.50
4.81 (0.82%)
83.64
0.83 (1.01%)
Put-through value amounted to approx. VND 132.36 bil VND. VNM was the most crossed ticker
(235,540 shares) with net crossing value of approx. 35.04 VND bil.
Foreign investors maintained their net sell status on HOSE with net value of approx. 41.1 bil VND. They
mostly registered net buys of HAG with net value of approx. VND 15.17 bil while net sells of OGC with net
value of approx. VND 18.17 bil.
On HNX
Top leading market indicators diverged as KLS, VND SCR suddenly plunged; ACB and SHB stayed flat;
while BVS, PVX and, VCG accelerated under strong buying pressure.
PVX topped the liquidity list with over 20.4 mil shares being exchanged. The ticker closed the day hit
ceiling, at VND 5,100.
Foreign investors continued to register as a net seller on HNX with value of approx. 2.89 bil VND. KLS
was the most accumulated ticker with net value of approx. 3.06 bil VND while PVS was the most unloaded
name with net value of approx. 8.78 bil VND.
ECONOMIC WRAP
It was reported that Samsung Thai Nguyen began operation on March 10, 2014. The initial output would be 2
mil phones/month starting from July, and 8-9 mil phones/month from August, 2014. To put everything in
perspective, Samsung Bac Ninh currently produces around 13-15 mil phones/month with export revenue
reaching roughly USD 24 bn in 2014 (Samsung data) and USD 21 bn (Vietnam customs data). So a rough
estimate reveals that Samsung Thai Nguyens export revenue might reach anywhere from USD 7 bn in 2014
(while initial plan from Samsung would be around USD 14-15 bn), and if this is the case, it would solidify our
initial estimate and we would not have to revise up our foreign trade estimate for the time being. We will
continue to monitor the trade data to scan for any abnormal growth for handphone export.
On March inflation, the Ministry of Finance announced that food & foodstuff price remained stable, and
upward pressure could only come from gasoline price. At the moment, calculations revealed that traders lost
nearly VND 200/liter for gasoline, and if the global price rally continues, chances are high for a retail price hike
within a week.
VN Index YTD
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Saigon Securities Incorporation.
<GO>
EQUITY WRAP
Increase 2013 cash dividend to 30% from the initial plan of 20%. 15% cash dividend was advanced in 2013. The
remainder will be paid in 2Q14.
Pay 25% stock dividend in 2Q14, increasing its charter capital to VND 3,439bn. The new 25% shares will be listed
immediately after issuance.
Although FPT is trading at high PER of 10x, we believe the news will positively impact the shares prices in the short term.
For 1Y horizon, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation at 1Y target price of VND 69,500/share.
BMP's gross profit margin remained high but revenue growth reduced due to NTPs discount policy, affecting BMP in
the North
NTPs revenue is boosted but margin contracted as NTP increased its discounts to agents.
Whats new?
BMP posted its 2013 revenue and profit before tax of VND 2,088bn and 496bn, increasing 10.4% and 3.4% YoY
respectively, a result from output growth in 2013. In 2013, output reached 48mn tons, similar to that of NTP. Gross profit
contracted to its normal level of 30% due to resin price hike. In 2013, BMP recorded one third of the bad debt provision for
Duc Thanh Agent, limiting PBT margin and growth.
It should be noted that BMP already paid VND 71bn of tax collection to the HCMs Taxation Department but recorded the
amount as other receivable before a final decision was made on whether BMP must pay the amount. BMP has not yet paid
the fine on the tax of more than VND 30bn. However, we believe that BMP is not obligated to pay the fine as BMP strictly
complied with the guidance of HCMs taxation department.
NTP posted its 2013 revenue and PBT of 2,481bn and 385bn, adding 5% and 0% YoY respectively. NTPs output remained
flat in 2013. By contrast to BMP, NTPs gross profit improved slightly by 1% YoY as the company speculated low cost
materials by the end of 2012, which helped boost profit margin of NTP in 1H13.
It should be noted that NTPs selling expense continued to expand faster than its revenue. As mentioned in our 3Q earnings
review, NTP increased its discounts to its exclusive agents by 3%/revenue to gain more market share. According to NTP,
there are 250 direct agents selling NTPs products, of which 70% are exclusive agents. NTP targets the proportion will be
100% in 2014, and NTP will gain 10% of the countrys market share in the next 2 years.
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Saigon Securities Incorporation.
<GO>
What to expect?
BMP: In 2014, we expect BMPs revenue will expand modestly by 6% YoY, lower than that in 2013 as NTPs discount policy
will lower the output of BMP in the North. Profit margin will continue to decline when resin price increases as it is difficult to
transfer the risk to end users due to fierce competition. BMP will continue to record VND 11bn of bad debt provision for Duc
Thanh Agent in 2014.
NTP: Contrastingly, NTPs revenue is expected to grow by 10% YoY in 2014 thanks to its discount policy. However, due to
high selling expenses, NTPs PBT is expected to remain flat in 2014.
NTP completed the construction of its factory in the Central of Vietnam on Sept 2013. Thanks to tax incentives, (4 years of
tax exemption), NTP will transfer 15% of its revenue to this branch in 2014. We expect NTP in Central Vietnam will
contribute 15% and 20% to revenue and PBT to consolidated NTP. Tax incentives will help save 18-20bn in corporate
income tax in 2014.
NTP is going to pay 30% stock dividend in 2014, increasing its charter capital to 563.4bn in 2014.
What we recommend?
With 2014 diluted EPS of BMP and NTP of VND 8,672 (+ 6.4 % YoY) and VND 5,563 (+ 8.2% YoY), BMP and NTP are
trading at PER of 8.6x and 9.3x. We recommend BUY for BMP at 1Y target price of VND 86,700/share and HOLD NTP at
1Y target price of VND 72,300/share.
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Saigon Securities Incorporation.
<GO>
TRADING STATISTICS
Market Data
VN - INDEX LEADING MOVERS
Ticker
ClosePrice
Change
%Change
Index pt
Vol
GAS
85,000
1500
1.80%
1.67
368,430
BVH
49,800
2300
4.84%
0.92
FPT
67,000
3500
5.51%
0.57
MSN
99,000
1000
1.02%
VCB
31,100
300
0.97%
Ticker
ClosePrice
Change
%Change
Index pt
Vol
VIC
75,000
-500
-0.66%
-0.27
167,180
STB
20,500
-300
-1.44%
-0.22
BID
16,600
-100
-0.60%
-0.17
ClosePrice
Change
%Change
Index pt
Vol
PVS
28,200
800
2.92%
0.23
2,415,278
1,303,120
VCG
15,700
500
3.29%
0.14
4,889,305
2,154,020
PVX
5,100
400
8.51%
0.10
20,402,383
0.43
114,670
OCH
32,000
500
1.59%
0.06
36,200
0.41
1,555,240
SD9
15,900
1400
8.50%
0.03
100
Ticker
ClosePrice
Change
%Change
Index pt
Vol
CTX
11,200
-1200
-9.68%
-0.02
200
1,170,840
TAG
29,000
-2000
-6.45%
-0.02
269
752,790
KLS
12,300
-100
-0.81%
-0.01
7,279,633
EIB
13,800
-100
-0.72%
-0.07
1,247,690
VND
16,000
-200
-1.23%
-0.01
2,279,273
VCF
145,000
-3000
-2.03%
-0.05
30
SCR
9,200
-100
-1.08%
-0.01
6,954,623
Ticker
ClosePrice
Change
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
Ticker
ClosePrice
Change
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
VOS
4,600
300
6.98%
17.95%
2,394,270
HNM
12,600
800
6.78%
27.27%
660,690
TSC
15,900
1000
6.71%
17.78%
239,920
ICG
10,700
-100
-0.93%
18.89%
585,214
AGR
6,000
300
5.26%
17.65%
847,300
VTV
16,500
500
3.13%
16.20%
25,740
BGM
4,700
300
6.82%
17.50%
1,911,560
APS
6,000
200
3.45%
15.38%
2,621,510
LCM
8,600
500
6.17%
16.22%
2,504,750
S99
8,400
-400
-4.55%
15.07%
20,850
Ticker
ClosePrice
Change
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
Ticker
ClosePrice
Change
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
GTT
11,200
-800
-6.67%
-18.84%
34,750
SCL
29,400
100
0.34%
-8.13%
111,000
BT6
8,600
-100
-1.15%
-10.42%
18,420
CMI
23,300
-400
-1.69%
-6.43%
89,600
PXT
6,500
-200
-2.99%
-4.41%
1,040,410
BCC
7,700
-100
-1.28%
-4.94%
656,505
CII
25,100
-500
-1.95%
-4.20%
899,590
CVT
18,100
-100
-0.55%
-2.16%
51,000
DMC
45,300
0.00%
-4.03%
61,960
PVB
28,500
-600
-2.06%
-2.06%
45,710
Ticker
Vol (share)
ClosePrice
Change
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Ticker
Vol (share)
ClosePrice
Change
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
ITA
9,456,540
8,900
200
2.30%
12.66%
PVX
20,402,383
5,100
400
8.51%
13.33%
FLC
7,606,580
13,700
100
0.74%
6.20%
SHB
8,936,981
9,300
0.00%
0.00%
OGC
7,292,990
12,800
300
2.40%
4.07%
KLS
7,279,633
12,300
-100
-0.81%
6.96%
HQC
6,369,550
9,000
-100
-1.10%
5.88%
SCR
6,954,623
9,200
-100
-1.08%
3.37%
HAG
5,481,060
27,000
300
1.12%
0.37%
VCG
4,889,305
15,700
500
3.29%
3.97%
Ticker
Volume
%Change
ClosePrice
Change
%+/-T
Ticker
Volume
%Change
ClosePrice
Change
%+/-T
SPM
38,970
162275%
24,900
900
3.75%
SFN
5,100
25400%
18,000
1300
7.78%
0.00%
TRC
101,950
2439%
42,600
-400
-0.93%
ALT
1,000
2400%
11,400
QCG
1,028,060
1735%
8,400
500
6.33%
CTA
265,710
2387%
4,000
300
8.11%
SRF
31,730
1138%
22,400
1400
6.67%
VGP
10,999
2080%
22,000
2000
10.00%
HAS
140,490
1022%
6,800
400
6.25%
SIC
151,110
1589%
8,100
700
9.46%
Ticker
ClosePrice
Buy Vol.
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
Ticker
ClosePrice
Buy Vol.
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
HAG
27,000
1,391,060
823,960
567,100
15.17
KLS
12,300
246,700
246,700
3.06
GAS
85,000
150,390
1,110
149,280
12.64
SDT
17,400
110,000
2,400
107,600
1.86
PVD
79,500
341,200
285,300
55,900
4.45
SHB
9,300
201,700
2,000
199,700
1.85
SZL
27,200
142,610
142,610
3.87
LAS
48,000
30,000
30,000
1.44
PPC
24,600
248,620
102,320
146,300
3.59
PHH
8,500
115,500
11,000
104,500
0.83
Ticker
ClosePrice
Buy Vol.
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
Ticker
ClosePrice
Buy Vol.
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
OGC
12,800
105,760
1,519,000
-1,413,240
-18.17
PVS
28,200
127,200
439,900
-312,700
-8.78
KBC
12,900
1,253,710
-1,253,710
-16.18
VND
16,000
90,100
430,000
-339,900
-5.48
HVG
27,600
17,500
492,690
-475,190
-13.20
HDO
6,200
103,000
-103,000
-0.63
PET
21,800
373,530
-373,530
-8.26
NET
56,100
100
4,500
-4,400
-0.24
DPM
44,200
94,820
223,400
-128,580
-5.71
HPC
5,600
40,000
-40,000
-0.22
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Saigon Securities Incorporation.
<GO>
Trading
volume
on 10.3
5 days
Trading
volume
Price
(VND)
EPS
PE
Price
T+3
Price
T+15
Net Profit
Growth
4Q13/4Q12
7.33%
43,640
218,200
75,000
7,379
10.2
0.7%
-3.8%
275%
7.83%
114,300
571,580
31,100
1,878
15.9
3.7%
7.2%
n.a
6.58%
66,600
333,000
44,200
5,841
7.5
1.1%
-4.3%
-51%
7.75%
127,200
636,000
28,200
3,568
7.7
1.1%
-10.5%
142%
6.87%
65,020
325,100
49,800
1,610
28.9
7.6%
4.2%
3%
5.82%
125,880
629,400
20,500
1,978
10.5
2.0%
-1.9%
n.a
30,320
151,600
79,500
7,424
10.5
1.3%
3.9%
124%
217,920
1,089,600
8,900
73
111.6
12.7%
14.1%
1388%
56,080
280,400
24,600
5,128
4.8
0.8%
-7.2%
-57%
195,200
976,000
9,300
854
10.9
0.0%
9.4%
n.a
105,780
528,900
12,800
352
35.2
4.1%
0.0%
141%
32,780
163,900
36,400
1,213
28.9
3.1%
2.5%
-202%
2.51%
23,080
115,400
49,900
4,663
10.4
1.8%
2.9%
180%
2.35%
39,560
197,800
27,000
1,372
19.3
0.4%
4.2%
369%
4,227,240
1.79%
18,300
91,500
44,200
4,518
9.8
-1.1%
-6.8%
1%
14,608,797
2.14%
63,200
316,000
15,700
1,233
12.2
4.0%
12.9%
671%
Exchange
Shares
Weight
VIC
HOSE
10,083,124
VCB
HOSE
26,396,018
DPM
HOSE
15,378,920
PVS
HNX
29,372,450
BVH
HOSE
15,012,736
STB
HOSE
29,068,711
PVD
HOSE
7,003,456
5.23%
ITA
HOSE
50,321,871
4.22%
PPC
HOSE
12,951,640
3.06%
SHB
HNX
45,088,600
4.04%
OGC
HOSE
24,425,146
2.94%
GMD
HOSE
7,569,136
2.55%
HPG
HOSE
5,330,900
HAG
HOSE
9,135,945
DRC
HOSE
VCG
HNX
5-Mar
Exchange
Weight
Price (VND)
EPS
PE
Price T+3
Price T+15
Net Profit
Growth
4Q13/4Q12
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
15.61%
13.65%
11.24%
8.96%
9.39%
7.59%
6.33%
3.81%
2.87%
2.99%
2.70%
2.12%
1.84%
1.56%
1.59%
1.56%
1.32%
1.36%
1.15%
0.96%
0.82%
0.60%
99,000
75,000
49,900
27,000
79,500
44,200
31,100
20,500
49,800
58,500
8,900
36,400
24,600
15,900
12,900
42,300
44,200
14,800
16,900
12,800
21,800
12,500
611
7,379
4,663
1,372
7,424
5,841
1,878
1,978
1,610
5,770
73
1,213
5,128
980
238
5,359
4,518
1,012
318
352
2,278
1,746
158.7
10.2
10.4
19.3
10.5
7.5
15.9
10.5
28.9
10.1
111.6
28.9
4.8
16.0
55.0
7.8
9.8
14.8
55.0
35.2
9.5
7.2
1.0%
0.7%
1.8%
0.4%
1.3%
1.1%
3.7%
2.0%
7.6%
-0.8%
12.7%
3.1%
0.8%
2.6%
-0.8%
1.2%
-1.1%
-0.7%
-0.6%
4.1%
-0.9%
0.0%
7.0%
-3.8%
2.9%
4.2%
3.9%
-4.3%
7.2%
-1.9%
4.2%
18.4%
14.1%
2.5%
-7.2%
-3.0%
1.6%
-2.5%
-6.8%
7.2%
2.4%
0.0%
-4.0%
-1.6%
31.0%
275.1%
179.5%
368.9%
124.2%
-50.6%
n.a
n.a
3.1%
-17.7%
1388.0%
-201.6%
-57.2%
7.3%
195.9%
52.1%
1.3%
433.3%
199.1%
140.9%
-47.5%
-42.6%
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Saigon Securities Incorporation.
Exchange
Shares
Weight
Price (VND)
EPS
PE
Price T+3
Price T+15
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
HOSE
1011240
829978
661440
782280
814076
238500
0.85%
0.54%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
99,000
75,000
44,200
31,100
20,500
49,800
611
7,379
5,841
1,878
1,978
1,610
158.7
10.2
7.5
15.9
10.5
28.9
1.0%
0.7%
1.1%
3.7%
2.0%
7.6%
7.0%
-3.8%
-4.3%
7.2%
-1.9%
4.2%
31.0%
275.1%
-50.6%
n.a
n.a
3.1%
MSN
VIC
DPM
VCB
STB
BVH
135%
125%
115%
105%
95%
85%
75%
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
MXFMEAS Index
Oct-13
Jan-14
VNINDEX Index
Source: Bloomberg
Net Buy/(Sell) of Foreign Investors in the last 20 trading days (VND bn)
300
250
200
150
bn VND
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar
HOSE 252 .5 93.6 121 .5 -56.5
96.8
48.7 158 .7 32.7
-37.4 146 .3 35.8
70.2
15.1
-92.5 -133 .3 -102 .5 -74.0
HNX
16.6
2.7
30.0
34.8
38.7
20.0
28.7
11.2
8.4
4.4
7.6
6.1
10.4
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Saigon Securities Incorporation.
16.5
-20.7
-5.7
5.7
-7.9
-15.1
-2.9
<GO>
OTC PRICE
No.
COMPANY(28/12/2013)
Real Estate
1
EDEN JSC
SAI GON GREEN DEVELOPMENT
2
INVESTMENT LAND
3
SAIGON REAL ESTATE JSC- SGX
HOANG ANH CONSTRUCTION AND
4
DEVELOPMENT HOUSE JSC
5
PETROWACO PROPERTY JSC
TOAN THINH PHAT ARCHITECTURE
6
INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION JSC
BENTHANH LAND INVESTMENT
7
CORPORATION
TIN NGHIA INDUSTRIAL PARK
8
DEVELOPMENT JSC
9
Construction
NO.8 INVESTMENT &
10
CONSTRUCTION JSC
11
12
13
LICOGI 12 JSC
Equipments
DONG TAM JOINT STOCK
14
CORPORATION
15
LA HIEN CEMENT JSC
16
CONG THANH CEMENT JSC
17
HAUGIANG MATERIALS JSC
Energy
BID
(VND'000)
ASK
(VND'000)
BID
(VND'000)
ASK
(VND'000)
10
10
41
3.6
42
26
23.5
43
10.5
12
10.5
8.8
7.9
14
16
13
5.9
9.5
9.4
10
11
36
36
3.7
51
53
44
5.5
5.6
45
10
46
3.8
9.5
49
4.5
50
24
24
51
13
6.6
3.4
3
9
3.5
2
10
52
64
14
65
66
67
15
16
68
27
27
69
10
9
30
31
32
8.5
18.5
19.5
36
37
38
39
20
14.5
8
20
15
9
71
72
73
16
14
74
41
43
10.5
75
37
38
76
70
11
12
78
55
58
79
37
37.5
80
SABECO
39
40
81
Agri Fisheries
82
83
84
85
5.3
8.5
10.2
8.5
9
11
9
4.4
10
11
5
7
5
7
10.5
11
19
19
15
15
7.5
30
50
31
52
5.5
10
32.5
33
Pharmaceutical
ICA BIOTECHNOLOGICAL
PHARMACEUTICAL JSC
CANGIO PHARMACEUTICAL JSC
VIDIPHA CENTRAL PHARMACEUTICAL
TAM DUC CARDIOLOGY HOSPITAL JSC
Light Industry
33
34
35
13
10
10
9
29
53
51.5
10
10
13
20
26
13
12
25
9.5
12
54
MB SECURITY JSC
55
VIET CAPITAL SECURITIES JSC
56
MILITARY INSURANCE COMPANY
Coporation
CONG NGHIEP CONSTRUCTION
57
TECHNOLOGY JSC
SAIGON COOP INVESTMENT
58
DEVELOPMENT JSC
59
PHUTHAI GROUP JSC
60
HANAKA GROUP JSC
Export/Import
61
DANANG TERRIORAIL IXPORT JSC
VIETNAM OCEAN SHIPPING AGENCY
62
CORPORATION
BAROTEX VIETNAM INVESTMENT
63
&TRADING JSC
Technology
24
47
8.5
12
COMPANY
Banking
48
19
21
BINH DIEN HYDROPOWER JSC
22
HUONG SON HYDROPOWER JSC
Transportation
23
AU LAC JSC
No.
77
40
42
4
20
19
3.8
20
19.5
5.5
33.5
34.5
75
75
24
24
29
30
67.5
63
67
60
17
17
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any mean or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of Saigon Securities Incorporation.
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