Chapter 1

Introduction to Simulation

Simio and Simulation: Modeling, Analysis, Applications,

2014
W. David Kelton, Jeffrey S. Smith, David T. Sturrock
Most recent update to these slides: January 1, 2014

Chapter 1

Introduction to Simulation

Introduction

In use since 1960s, continues to grow, strengthen

Advanced analytics (including simulation) is 2nd of top ten
strategic technologies for 2010 (www.gartner.com)
Growth, popularity facilitated by hardware/software advances
Powerful, relatively cheap PCs
Simulation-software user interfaces, design, ease of use
Object-oriented technology in simulation software improves model
flexibility, ability to model complex systems
Publicly available symbols promote 3D animation

Books goals
General simulation knowledge (software-independent)
Practical introduction to the Simio simulation package

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Introduction to Simulation

About the Book II

Simulation Concepts Basis in underlying concepts and brief

introduction to software
Chapter 1: Introduction to Simulation

About the book; systems, models, and applications; when to simulate (and when
not to), managing simulation projects, stakeholder and simulationist bills of rights

Chapter 2: Basics of Queueing Theory

Basic analytical queueing theory; terminology; Littles law; some specific

queueing models; queueing networks; strengths/limitations; use in verifying
simulation models

Chapter 3: Kinds of Simulation

Terminology, different kinds of simulation; manual simulation; using generalpurpose programming languages; spreadsheet simulation models; simulation
software

Chapter 4: First Simio Models

User interface; first model via Standard Library objects & processes; ATM model;
basic output analysis via Simio Experiments & SMORE plots; exporting output
data for post-processing via external stat packages; basic animation
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Introduction to Simulation

About the Book

Simulation Modeling With Simio based on examples,

integrated validation and output analysis
Chapter 5: Intermediate Modeling With Simio

Simio object framework; PCB assembly models; comparing alternative scenarios

Chapter 6: Input Analysis

Specifying probability distributions/processes for input to simulation models with

the external Stat::Fit software; generating random numbers, variates, vectors,
and processes

Chapter 7: Working With Model Data

Emergency-department model with Data & Sequence tables; importing/exporting

data; Schedules; Rate & Function Tables; Lists; Changeovers, State Arrays

Chapter 8: Animation and Entity Movement

2D/3D animation; entity movement; Links; Conveyors; assisted entity movement

Chapter 9: Advanced Modeling With Simio

More advanced modeling examples; processes; seeking optimal scenarios

Chapter 10: Customizing and Extending Simio

Defining new objects & libraries; add-on processes; base & hierarchical objects;
sub-classing; extensions
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Introduction to Simulation

About the Book

Chapter 11: Case Studies Using Simio descriptions of realistic

systems of increasing complexity to facilitate modeling practice.
Appendix A: Simulation-based Scheduling a brief overview of
the state of the art in planning and scheduling and discussion of
how the latest simulation technology can be used to address
many of the existing problems.

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Introduction to Simulation

Systems and Models

System broad term, set of related components working

together toward some purpose, usually over time
Simple ATM; complex airport; very complex global distribution network
May or may not exist; may or may not be possible to experiment with the
real system directly

Model of a system
Physical model airplane cockpit for training, wind tunnels
Analytical model exact mathematical analysis, limited domain/flexibility
Simulation model
Imitation of systems operation over time (dynamic)
Appropriate level of detail, draw conclusions about system behavior
Software to represent system components, behavior, interactions
Record artificial history of model, summarize characteristics
Used to predict effect of changes to existing system,
or performance of new systems
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Introduction to Simulation

Kinds of Simulations

Stochastic vs. Deterministic

Stochastic random inputs to model to represent the realistic variation

found in most systems (time to complete a task, time between
successive arrivals of customers, machine uptimes and downtimes,
branching probabilities)
Outputs random too, subject to proper statistical analysis
Deterministic no random inputs to model, so outputs are always the
same (unless you change something in the model)

Discrete vs. Continuous

Discrete state variables describing the model change only at

instantaneous discrete points in time (event times)
Number of customers in queue, server status (busy, idle, down)
Continuous state variables can change continuously over time,
described by differential equations that are solved numerically
Pressure in a tank, temperature in an oven, fluid flow
Mixed discrete/continuous models

More detail on kinds of simulation in Chapter 3

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Discrete-Event Modeling Paradigms

Events

Model the points in time when the system state can change
Program to carry out instantaneous event logic, scheduling of future
events, observing output and summaries

Processes
Model a sequence of actions taking place over time (part in a
manufacturing system seizes a worker, delays for service, releases
worker)

Objects
Describe model from the point of view of the facility

Agent-based
Agents are a special case of objects
Give intelligence to objects to make them into agents
System behavior emerges from interaction of many autonomous agents
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Introduction to Simulation

Areas Where Simulation Has Been Applied

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Airports
Hospitals
Ports
Mining
Amusement Parks
Call Centers
Supply Chains

Manufacturing
Military
Telecommunications
Criminal Justice System
Emergency-response System
Public Sector
Customer Service

Introduction to Simulation

Why Simulation?

Objects can influence each other

Every system has randomness
Breakdowns, illness, late arrivals

The combination is complex.

+

Simulation is uniquely capable of managing

this complexity.

Impact of Variation

Most systems contain variation.

Demand by customers, parts
Equipment/personnel failures
Shortages of materials/supplies.

Randomness is an important
aspect of most systems.
Random processes cannot be analyzed
with static tools.

The Performance Villain

Average time
between
arrivals
is 60 minutes

Average
service time is
55 minutes

Photo
Processing
How will this system perform?
Average waiting time when run 24x7?
Arrival/Service Process
Constant/Constant
Random*/Constant
Random*/Random*
* Exponential Distribution

Result
0 Hours

Lets
Model
That

When to Simulate (and When Not To)

If a valid model of the system is simple enough to model

analytically and get exact results, then dont simulate

Key word: valid probably possible for only the very simplest of systems

If system becomes complicated, its tempting to over-simplify

the assumptions to get to an analytically tractable model
Advantage is that you get exact answers, no uncertainty or noise
But what good is an exact answer to the wrong model? How to measure
how wrong a model is?
Solving the (perhaps-unrealistic) model vs. solving the real problem

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When to Simulate (and When Not To) (cont.)

Disadvantage of (stochastic) simulation answers are just

statistical estimates with uncertainty and noise

Need to design, statistically analyze simulation experiments

These essential activities in a sound simulation project are
interwoven with modeling throughout the book
Can measure uncertainty/noise, take steps to reduce to tolerable level
But you must be aware of this and consider it

Its better to get a sufficiently precise estimated answer to the

right model, than an exact answer to the wrong model

Some statistical variation in the answers can be expected when using

different versions of the same software on the same model
e.g., Change in order of processing simultaneous events
But even for a stochastic model, should get the same results from
multiple executions of the same model in the same software version
Random-number generators arent really random desirable Chapts. 3, 4

Simulation is no longer the method of last resort to be used only when

all else fails (Wagner, 1969)
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Simulation Success Skills Project Objectives

Stakeholder Someone who commissions, funds, uses, or is

affected by a simulation project

Conflicting objectives between different stakeholders are not uncommon

There is no single simulation model for a system the right

model depends on a combination of the system and the study
objectives:

What do you want to evaluate, learn, or hope to prove?

Whats the scope of the project?
What data are available or can be collected?
In what form do you want the results?

In fact all Models are wrong! Why?

While models attempt to represent reality all
require simplifying assumptions!
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Functional Specification

If you dont know where youre going,

how will you know when you get there?

Carpenters advice: Measure twice. Cut once.

Functional specification a document describing exactly what

will be delivered, when, how, and by whom
From practical experience, approximately 10% of a projects
total time should be spent on developing the objectives and
functional specification
For most models:

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Objectives
System description and modeling approach
Input data required
Expected experimentation
Deliverables
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Project Iterations

Simulation novices often start modeling and keep adding to the

model until its complete, and only then run the model.

Dont do that!
Use an iterative model-building process
Add features/model components
Run/Test
Repeat

Save early, save often!

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Simulation Process

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Bill of Rights

For Simulation Stakeholder What your stakeholder

can expect from you.
For Simulationist What you can expect from your
stakeholders.
In-Class Quiz two weeks from now
on these Bill of Rights!

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Simulation Stakeholder Bill of Rights

Partnership The modeler will do more than provide information on request. The modeler will
assume some ownership of helping stakeholders determine the right problems and identify and
evaluate proposed solutions.
Functional Specification A specification will be created at the beginning of the project to help
define clear project objectives, deadlines, data, responsibilities, reporting needs, and other
project aspects. This specification will be used as a guide throughout the project, especially
when tradeoffs must be considered.
Prototype All but the simplest projects will have a prototype to help stakeholders and the
modeler communicate and visualize the project scope, approach, and outcomes. The prototype
is often done as part of the functional specification.
Level of Detail The model will be created at an appropriate level of detail to address the stated
objectives. Too much or too little detail could lead to an incomplete, misunderstood, or even
useless model.
Phased Approach The project will be divided into phases and the interim results should be
shared with stakeholders. This allows problems in approach, detail, data, timeliness, or other
areas to be discovered and addressed early and reduces the chance of an unfortunate surprise
at the end of a project.
Timeliness If a decision-making date has been clearly identified, usable results will be provided
by that date. If project completion has been delayed, regardless of reason or fault, the model
will be re-scoped so that the existing work can provide value and contribute to effective
decision-making.

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Simulation Stakeholder Bill of Rights (cont.)

Agility Modeling is a discovery process and often new directions will evolve over the course of
the project. While observing the limitations of level of detail, timeliness, and other aspects of the
functional specification, a modeler will attempt to adjust project direction appropriately to meet
evolving needs.
Validated and Verified The modeler will certify that the model conforms to the design in the
functional specification and that the model appropriately represents the actual operation. If
there is inadequate time for accuracy, there is inadequate time for the modeling effort.
Animation Every model deserves at least simple animation to aid in verification and
communication with stakeholders.
Clear Accurate Results The project results will be summarized and expressed in a form and
terminology useful to stakeholders. Since simulation results are an estimate, proper analysis will
be done so that the stakeholders are informed of the accuracy of the results.
Documentation The model will be adequately documented both internally and externally to
support both immediate objectives and long term model viability.
Integrity The results and recommendations are based only on facts and analysis and are not
influenced by politics, effort, or other inappropriate factors.

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Simulationist Bill of Rights

Clear Objectives A simulationist can help stakeholders discover and refine their objectives, but
clearly the stakeholders must agree on project objectives. The primary objectives must remain
solid throughout the project.
Stakeholder Participation Adequate access and cooperation must be provided by the people
who know the system both in the early phases and throughout the project. Stakeholders will
need to be involved periodically to assess progress and resolve outstanding issues.
Timely Data The functional specification should describe what data will be required, when it
will be delivered and by whom. Late, missing, or poor quality data can have a dramatic impact on
a project.
Management Support The simulationists manager should support the project as needed not
only in issues like tools and training discussed below, but also in shielding the simulationist from
energy sapping politics and bureaucracy.
Cost of Agility If stakeholders ask for project changes, they should be flexible in other aspects
such as delivery date, level of detail, scope, or project cost.
Timely Review/Feedback Interim updates should be reviewed promptly and thoughtfully by
the appropriate people so that meaningful feedback can be provided and any necessary course
corrections can be immediately made.
Reasonable Expectations Stakeholders must recognize the limitations of the tech-nology and
project constraints and not have unrealistic expectations. A project based on the assumption of
long work hours is a project that has been poorly managed.

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Simulationist Bill of Rights (cont.)

Dont shoot the messenger The modeler should not be criticized if the results promote an
unexpected or undesirable conclusion.
Proper Tools A simulationist should be provided the right hardware and software appropriate
to the project. While the best and latest is not always required, a simulationist should not have
to waste time on outdated or inappropriate software and inefficient hardware.
Training and Support A simulationist should not be expected to plunge ahead into unfamiliar
software and applications without training. Proper training and support should be provided.
Integrity A simulationist should be free from coercion. If a stakeholder knows the right
answer before the project starts, then there is no point to starting the project. If not, then the
objectivity of the analysis should be respected with no coercion to change the model to produce
the desired results.
Respect A good simulationist may sometimes make the job look easy, but dont take them for
granted. A project often looks easy only because the simulationist did everything right, a feat
that in itself is very difficult. And sometimes a project looks easy only because others have not
seen the nights and weekends involved.

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