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WEEK LY
MARKET
COMMENTARY
KEY TAKEAWAYS
August 10 2015
The summer has flown by and some children are already going back to school
this week. The back to school shopping session is considered the second most
important selling season for retailers (after the Christmas/winter holidays), which we
think is a good reason to check in on the health of the U.S. consumer and provide
our latest thoughts on the consumer discretionary sector. Expectations for this
season are low, but several consumer spending tailwinds suggest the sector may be
poised to outperform over the rest of the 2015.
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR HAS HISTORICALLY PERFORMED WELL WHEN OIL PRICES FALL
178.49
$180
190
180
$140
170
$120
160
$100
150
140
$80
130
120
$40
44.66
$20
100
$0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
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12
13
14
02
110
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18.75 %
18.00
17.25
16.50
15.75
15.00
85
90
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95
00
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CONCLUSION
Expectations for the back to school shopping
season are low, and this season may only be flat
versus last year. But several factorsincluding low
oil prices, consumers solid financial condition, and
the likelihood that the current economic cycle lasts
several more yearssuggest the sector may be
poised to outperform over the rest of the 2015. n
640
620.48
620
617.14
600
588.15
580
560
540
520
500
480
Aug
14
Sep
14
Oct
14
Nov
14
Dec
14
Jan
15
Feb
15
Mar
15
Apr
15
May
15
June
15
July
15
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To
determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee
of future results.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal, and potential liquidity of the investment in a falling market.
Because of its narrow focus, specialty sector investing, such as healthcare, financials, or energy, will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across
many sectors and companies.
Technical analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not
intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a securitys intrinsic value, but instead use charts and
other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Technical analysis should be used in conjunction with fundamental analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following
considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs, are examples.
INDEX DESCRIPTIONS
The Standard & Poors 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in
the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
DEFINITIONS
A simple moving average (SMA) is a simple, or arithmetic, moving average that is calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and
then dividing this total by the number of time periods. Short-term averages respond quickly to changes in the price of the underlying, while long-term averages are slow
to react.
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