Thesis

IDOLOVEVIDEOGAMES.
BUTAFTERA
WHILE,YOUFEELLIKEYOUNEEDTOGET
UPANDDOSOMETHINGOBSERVING
THEEFFECTOFVIDEOGAMEVIOLENCE
ONVIOLENTCRIMEACROSSEIGHTUS
STATES
PatrickCremen(10312473)
TrinityCollegeDublin
August2015
ABSTRACT
Whilemanypsychologicalstudieshavefoundapositiverelationshipbetweenvideogameviolenceand
aggression,fewstudieshaveexaminedtherelationshipbetweenviolentvideogamesandreallifeseries
actsofaggression.Thefewstudiesexaminingtherelationshipbetweenviolentvideogameexposureand
crimeinthefieldhavefoundtheretobeanegativerelationship.However,withoutdataonwhen
exposuretakesplace,thesestudiescannotsufficientlyattributethiseffecttoeithervoluntary
incapacitationorcatharsis.Inthisstudy,amethodologyisdevelopedforestimatingthehourlynumberof
peopleineightUSstatesexposedtoeachXbox360andPlayStation3videogamebetweentheyears
20062012.Thisdataisthencomparedtohourlyviolentcrimeratesinthesestates.Thestudyfindsthat
alltypesofvideogamereduceviolentcrimeduringexposure.However,intenselyviolentvideogames
increaseviolentcrimeratesinthehoursfollowingexposure.Sinceincreasedviolentvideogameexposure
isrelatedtoincreasesinviolentcrimeratesfollowingexposure,thisstudyprovidesthefirst
comprehensiveevidencelinkingvideogameviolencetoreallifeactsofaggression.Thereforethe
catharsishypothesisisrejected.Thedecreaseinviolentcrimeratesduringexposuresupportsthe
voluntaryincapacitationhypothesis.Overall,bothviolentandnonviolentvideogamesreduceviolent
crime,althoughgamesfeaturingintenselevelsofviolenceleadtoaslightnetincreaseinviolentcrime.
However,furtherresearchisneededbeforethiscanbedeemedacausalrelationship
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ThankyoutomysupervisorRichardLeyteforhisassistanceandguidancethroughout
thisproject.
ThankyoutoLauriMkinenandKyleOrland,whospenttheirvaluabletimeproviding
mewithdatawithoutwhichthisstudywouldnothavebeenpossible.
CONTENTS
1INTRODUCTIONANDSTUDYAIMS...........................................................................................................................................1
1.1INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................................................................1
1.1.1PolicyRelevance.................................................................................................................................................................1
1.1.2APhantomConnection?.....................................................................................................................................................2
1.2STUDYAIMS.................................................................................................................................................................................3
1.2.1OutlineofStudy..................................................................................................................................................................3
1.2.2Aims....................................................................................................................................................................................3
1.2.3Hypotheses..........................................................................................................................................................................3
1.2.4OtherPossibleResults........................................................................................................................................................4
2LITERATUREREVIEW...................................................................................................................................................................5
2.1INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................................................................5
2.2THEPSYCHOLOGICALLITERATURE..............................................................................................................................................5
2.2.1VGVandAggression:ATaleofTwoCamps:....................................................................................................................5
2.2.2ReachingaConsensus:MetaAnalyticReviews,Reviewed................................................................................................7
2.2.1InconclusiveFindings.........................................................................................................................................................8
2.3VGVANDVIOLENTCRIME..........................................................................................................................................................9
2.3.1TheThreeMajorStudies:...................................................................................................................................................9
2.3.2OtherStudies.....................................................................................................................................................................10
2.3.3DoesMovieViolenceIncreaseViolentCrime?...........................................................................................................11
2.3.4VideoGamesandCrime................................................................................................................................................11
2.3.1UnderstandingtheEffectofViolentVideoGamesonViolentCrime............................................................................12
2.4INSIGHTSGAINEDFROMREVIEW...............................................................................................................................................14
3METHODOLOGYANDJUSTIFICATION..................................................................................................................................15
3.1STUDYDESIGN...........................................................................................................................................................................15
3.2ANEWPROXYFORVIDEOGAMEEXPOSURE............................................................................................................................16
3.3VIOLENTCRIME..........................................................................................................................................................................16
3.4VIDEOGAMEEXPOSURE..............................................................................................................................................................18
3.4.1ChoiceofVideogames......................................................................................................................................................18
3.4.2EstimatingHourlyConcurrentUsers...............................................................................................................................19
3.5CONTROLVARIABLES.................................................................................................................................................................23
3.5.1InstrumentalVariable.......................................................................................................................................................23
3.5.2SocioEconomicControlvariables...................................................................................................................................23
3.5.3OtherIndictors:................................................................................................................................................................24
3.6OTHERMETHODOLOGY..............................................................................................................................................................24
4DATAGATHERINGANDPREPARATION................................................................................................................................25
4.1STEAMGAMES............................................................................................................................................................................25
4.1.1HourlyConcurrentUsersfortheSevenProxySteamGames..........................................................................................25
4.1.2NumberoftheseUsersLocatedintheUS........................................................................................................................26
4.1.3WeeklySteamSales...........................................................................................................................................................27
4.1.4CalculatingthePercentageofOwnersPlayingeachoftheSteamGames......................................................................28
4.2CONSOLEGAMES........................................................................................................................................................................28
4.2.1UnitsSold..........................................................................................................................................................................28
4.2.2MatchingwithSteamGamesviaGenre...........................................................................................................................29
4.2.3Metascore..........................................................................................................................................................................29
4.2.4ViolenceRating.................................................................................................................................................................29
4
4.2.5GroupingViolenceRatings...............................................................................................................................................30
4.3ESTIMATINGEXPOSURE..............................................................................................................................................................31
4.3.1PercentageforEachState................................................................................................................................................31
4.3.2CombiningDatasets..........................................................................................................................................................31
4.3.3HourlyConcurrentPlayersintheUS...............................................................................................................................32
4.3.4HourlyConcurrentPlayersinEachState........................................................................................................................33
4.4SOCIOECONOMICCONTROLVARIABLES...................................................................................................................................33
4.4.1PopulationandYouthPopulation.....................................................................................................................................33
4.4.2Unemployment..................................................................................................................................................................34
4.4.3Income...............................................................................................................................................................................34
4.4.4Urbanization.....................................................................................................................................................................34
4.4.5CombiningData................................................................................................................................................................34
4.5OTHERDATA..............................................................................................................................................................................35
4.5.1TVRatings.........................................................................................................................................................................35
4.5.2HolidayIndicators............................................................................................................................................................36
4.5.3WeatherVariables............................................................................................................................................................37
5SPSSSETUP......................................................................................................................................................................................38
5.1CRIMEDATA...............................................................................................................................................................................38
5.2GAMESDATA..............................................................................................................................................................................38
5.3CONTROLVARIABLES.................................................................................................................................................................39
5.3.1WeatherControls..............................................................................................................................................................39
5.3.2OtherControlVariables...................................................................................................................................................40
5.4SEASONALITYCONTROLS...........................................................................................................................................................40
5.4.1DummyVariables.............................................................................................................................................................40
5.4.2AdditiveTimeSeries.........................................................................................................................................................40
5.5DATAAGGREGATION..................................................................................................................................................................41
6ANALYSIS.........................................................................................................................................................................................42
6.1CRIMEDATA...............................................................................................................................................................................42
6.2REGRESSIONANALYSIS..............................................................................................................................................................43
6.2.1Methodology.....................................................................................................................................................................43
6.2.2ShortRunEffects..............................................................................................................................................................43
6.2.3MediumRunEffects..........................................................................................................................................................44
7FINDINGS.........................................................................................................................................................................................46
7.1:VGVISRELATEDTOVIOLENTCRIME.....................................................................................................................................46
7.2THEEFFECTISMOSTSIGNIFICANTFORYOUNGMALES............................................................................................................46
7.3THECATHARSISHYPOTHESISISREJECTED................................................................................................................................46
7.4THEDATASUPPORTSTHEVOLUNTARYINCAPACITATIONHYPOTHESES..................................................................................47
7.5THISDATAALSOPROVIDESEVIDENCEINFAVOUROFGAM...................................................................................................47
8CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................................................................................48
8.1REFLECTIONONAIMS.................................................................................................................................................................48
8.2CONCLUDINGREMARKS..............................................................................................................................................................49
8.2.1ComparisonwithPreviousResearch................................................................................................................................49
8.2.2NewInsightsDeveloped....................................................................................................................................................50
9REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................................................................52
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE1:TOPSELLINGWIIGAMES........................................................................................................................................................64
TABLE2:TOPSELLINGXBOX360GAMES............................................................................................................................................65
TABLE3:TOPSELLINGPLAYSTATION3GAMES...................................................................................................................................66
TABLE4:GENREGROUPINGS.................................................................................................................................................................70
TABLE5:HOURLYCONCURRENTPLAYERSOFTHEELDERSCROLLS:SKYRIMONSTEAM......................................................................71
TABLE6:STEAMBANDWIDTHSTATSDATA..........................................................................................................................................72
TABLE7:AVERAGEPERCENTAGEOFGLOBALSTEAMBANDWIDTHACCOUNTEDFORBYAMERICA..................................................73
TABLE8:PERCENTAGEOFOWNERSPLAYINGNBA2K13......................................................................................................................75
TABLE9:ERSBRATINGSANDVIOLENCEDESCRIPTORS......................................................................................................................77
TABLE10:PERCENTAGEOFTOTALUSVIDEOGAMESTOREINEACHSTATE.....................................................................................78
TABLE11:STATETIMEZONES..............................................................................................................................................................79
TABLE12:DAYLIGHTSAVINGSTIMES..................................................................................................................................................79
TABLE13:WESTVIRGINIAVIDEOGAMEEXPOSUREDATA.................................................................................................................80
TABLE14:AMERICANCOMMUNITYSURVEYDATA..............................................................................................................................81
TABLE15:VERMONTSOCIOECONOMICDATA.....................................................................................................................................82
TABLE16:TVRATINGSDATA...............................................................................................................................................................83
TABLE17:WESTVIRGINIAHOLIDAYDATA..........................................................................................................................................84
TABLE18:WEATHERSTATIONINFORMATION.......................................................................................................................................85
TABLE19:WEATHERVARIABLECODING..............................................................................................................................................85
TABLE20:CASELEVELSPSSDATA.....................................................................................................................................................86
TABLE21:COMBINEDVIOLENTCRIMEDATASET.................................................................................................................................87
TABLE22:THEEFFECTOF'METASCORESONSALES.............................................................................................................................88
TABLE23:INCIDENTSOFVIOLENTCRIMEBYTIMEOFDAY................................................................................................................91
TABLE24:INCIDENTSOFVIOLENTCRIMECOMMITTEDBYYOUNGMALESGROUPEDBYTIMEOFDAY...........................................91
TABLE25:THEAVERAGENUMBEROFVIOLENTCRIMESCOMMITTEDINEACHTIMEGROUPING......................................................92
TABLE26:THEEFFECTOFVIDEOGAMEEXPOSUREONCRIMERATES................................................................................................93
TABLE27:THEEFFECTOFVIDEOGAMEEXPOSUREONVIOLENTCRIMERATESONCETIMEGROUPINGAREAAPPLIED..................94
TABLE28:THEEFFECTOFVIDEOGAMEEXPOSUREOFVIOLENTCRIMERATESOFYOUNGMALESONCETIMEGROUPINGSARE
APPLIED......................................................................................................................................................................................94
TABLE29:THEMEDIUMRUNEFFECTOFVIDEOGAMEEXPOSUREONALLVIOLENTCRIME.............................................................95
TABLE30:THEMEDIUMRUNEFFECTOFVIDEOGAMEEXPOSUREONVIOLENTCRIMECOMMITTEDBYYOUNGMALES...............95
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE1:STEAMGRAPHDATAFORSHOOTINGGAMES ........................................................................................................................67
FIGURE2:STEAMGRAPHDATAFORROLEPLAYINGGAMES................................................................................................................67
FIGURE3:STEAMGRAPHDATAFORSTRATEGYGAMES........................................................................................................................68
FIGURE4:STEAMGRAPHDATAFORSPORTSGAMES.............................................................................................................................68
FIGURE5:STEAMBANDWIDTHUSAGECOMPARISON...........................................................................................................................69
FIGURE6:STEAMBANDWIDTHSTATSWEBPAGE..................................................................................................................................72
FIGURE7:SEASONALITYOFVIDEOGAMESALES.................................................................................................................................74
FIGURE8:FARCRY3STEAMGRAPHDATA...........................................................................................................................................76
FIGURE9:DECOMPOSITIONOFADDITIVETIMESERIESONALLVIOLENTCRIME.................................................................................89
FIGURE10:DECOMPOSITIONOFADDITIVETIMESERIESONVIOLENTCRIMECOMMITTEDBYYOUNGMALES...................................89
FIGURE11:AVERAGEUSSTEAMBANDWIDTHBYTIMEOFDAY.........................................................................................................90
1 INTRODUCTION AND STUDY

AIMS
Idolovevideogames.Butafterawhile,youfeellikeyoureallyneedtoget
upanddosomethingPatrickChan,Olympicmedallist.
PatrickCremenAugust2015
Idolovevideogames.Butafterawhile,youfeellikeyouneedtogetupanddosomethingObservingtheeffectofvideogame
violenceonviolentcrimeacrosseightUSstates
Introduction
Policy Relevance
Therehavebeenfrequenteffortsbybothlawmakers(SassoandKasperowicz2013)and
advocacygroups(ParentsAgainstViolence)topasslawsbanningthesaleofintensely
violentvideogamestominors.ThisistruebothwithintheUnitedStates,and
worldwide,withtherelationshipbetweenvideogameviolence(VGV)andviolentcrime
normallybeingcitedasaprincipalreason.(CensorsBanBrutalvideogame;
GermanVideoGameLawsExplained).
Itisimportanttoacknowledgethatsuchalawwillaffectmorethanjustminors,and
willlikelyleadtotheremovalofintenselyviolentvideogamesfromthemarket.
Currently,liketheNC17ratingforafilm,thereexistsanAdultsonlyratingforvideo
games,whichprohibitsthegamessaletominors.Asmostdistributorsdontwishto
riskfacingpotentialfinesandthusavoiddistributingtheseproducts,bothratingsare
consideredtobethekissofdeathintheirindustries(Sandler2001;Clayman,2007).
Indeedasof2010,therehasonlybeenonemajorNC17release(Izzo,2010),andasof
2013only0.08percentofvideogameshavebeenreleasedwithanAOrating.Banning
thesaleofviolentvideogamestominorswouldlikelyhavesimilareffects,andthusall
butremovethesegamesfromthemarket.
A Phantom Connection?
ThelinkbetweenVGVandviolentcrimeismoreassumedthanproven.In2005
CaliforniaGovernorArnoldSchwarzeneggerpassedalawbanningthesaleofviolent
videogamestominors,citingvideogamescausaleffectonviolentbehaviourasa
principalreason.(AB1179ViolentVideoGames:SalestoMinors).However,the
SupremeCourtheldthatcurrentresearchinthisareahasfailedtoprovethatvideo
gamescauseminorstoactaggressively(564U.S._(2011),13).Infactaswillbeseen
intheLiteratureReview,thefewstudiesconductedinthisareaindicateanegative
relationshipbetweenVGVandviolentcrime,butmoreresearchisneeded.Therefore,
thisstudyaimstoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenVGVandviolentcrimeacross
eightUSstates,tobetterinformfuturepolicymakinginthisarea.
Study Aims
Outline of Study
Thisstudylookstoestablishwhat(ifany)arethecausaleffectsofVGVonviolent
crimeacrosseightUSstates(Delaware,Idaho,Iowa,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,
Vermont,Virginia,WestVirginia),fromtheyears20072012.TherearefouraimsI
willlookatachievingtoestablishthis.
Aims
1:DevelopasystemtoestimatewhenconsumersarebeingexposedtoVGV.Aswillbe
discussedintheLiteratureReview,previousresearchhaslackedthisdataandthishas
madeestablishinganykindofcausalconnectiondifficult.
2:InvestigatethecorrelationbetweenVGVandviolentcrimerates
3:EstablishthiscorrelationtobeacausaleffectofVGVonviolentcrime.
4:Establishwhichofthethreedominanthypothesesthisdatasupports.
Hypotheses
TheGeneralAggressionModel(GAM):PredictsincreasedVGVexposurewillcause
increasedlevelsofviolentcrime,asVGVexposurecausesarousalandprimes
aggressivethoughts(Wolf,1986:774).
Voluntaryincapacitation(VI):PredictsincreasedVGVexposurewillleadtolower
levelsofviolentcrime,asbychoosingtospendtheirtimeplayingviolentvideogames,
potentialcriminalsforgootheractivitieswithhighercrimerates(DahlandDellaVigna,
2009:678).
Catharsis:PredictsincreasedVGVexposureshoulddecreaseviolentcrimeduetothe
catharticeffectofexperiencingtheviolenceonscreen(ibid.:683).
Other Possible Results
Itisimportanttonotethatexistingliteraturehasindicatedthatwhatevertheeffectof
VGVonviolentcrime,itislikelytobesmall(Cunningham,Engelsttter,Ward,2011b:
15;FergusonandKilburn,2010:177;Bushman,Rothstein,andAnderson,2010:4)
Therefore,itissomewhatprobablethatthestudymayshownosignificanteffecton
violentcrime.However,sucharesultwouldnotunderminetherelevancyofthisstudy.
Solongasthemethodologyissound,establishingnocausalrelationshipwouldprovide
evidenceagainsttheassumedlinkbetweenVGVandviolentcrime,andhelpinform
futurepolicy.
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
10
Introduction
Thisliteraturereviewwillexaminethetwolargelyseparatefieldsofstudyinrelationto
VGV.Firstlyitisimportanttoexaminethemostprominentareaofstudyinthisfield:
thepsychologicaleffectsofVGVexposure.Understandingthepsychologicaleffectof
VGVonaggressionwillprovidegroundworktounderstandingandhypothesisingonthe
relationshipbetweenVGVandwhatBushman,Rothstein,andAnderson(2010:4)
distinguishasmoreseriousactsofaggression,namelyviolentcrime.Secondly,Iwill
examinethesparseliteratureinvestigatingtherelationshipbetweenviolentmediaand
violentcrime,focusingonthethreemajorstudiesconductedinthisfield.
11
12
The Psychological Literature
VGV and Aggression: A Tale of Two Camps:
Asothershavenoted(Schreier,2013),twothingsbecomeapparentwhenreviewingthis
literature.Firstly,theliteratureishighlydivided,withfewconclusiveanswerstobe
found.Secondly,thisfieldofresearchisdominatedbythreeresearchers:Christopher
BarlettandCraigAnderson,whoseresearchsupportsacausalrelationshipbetween
VGVandaggression(BarlettandAnderson,2009),andChrisFerguson,whoseworks
disputethesefindings(Ferguson,SanMiguelandHartley,2009).
AnexampleoftheformerwouldbeAndersonandDills2000studyVideoGamesand
AggressiveThoughts,Feelings,andBehaviorintheLaboratoryandinLife.Thestudy
examinedthisrelationshipusingAndersonshighlyinfluentialGeneralAggression
Model(GAM)(AndersonandDill,2000:774).GAMpredictsthatvideogameviolence
willincreaseshorttermaggressionasthemediaprimesaggressivethoughts,
increaseshostilefeelings,orincreasesarousal(allelsebeingequal).(ibid.:774).
AndersonandDill(2000)testedthisbyassigningcollegestudentstoplayeithera
violent(Wolfenstein3D)ornonviolent(Myst)videogame.Thestudyfoundthatafter
15minutesofexposure,participantswhowereexposedtoWolfenstein3Dhadamore
negativeworldview(basedonaquestionnaire[ibid.:784]),moreaggressivethinking
(basedonhowquicklyparticipantscouldreadaggressivewordsaloud[ibid.]),andmore
aggressivebehaviour(basedontheintensityanddurationofanoiseblastparticipants
deliveredtoanopponentafterbeatingtheminacompetition[ibid.:786]).
Incontrast,Fergusonetals(2008)studydisputedthesefindings.Fergusonetal(2008:
11)conductedasimilarnoiseblasttest,butfoundthatoncegenderwascontrolledfor,
neitherviolentnornonviolentvideogamesincreasedaggression.Importanthereisthat
13
Fergusonetal(2008:3)notethatthisnoiseblasttestwastheonlypartofAndersonand
Dills(2000)findingsthatlinkedVGVtophysicalactsofaggression.
Thesetwostudiesareindicativeofthedividedliteratureonthesubject,withvarious
studiesfindingthatVGVincreasesaggression(Dominick,1984);hasnoeffecton
aggression(Lynch,1994),orevenreducesaggression(KestenbaumandWeinstein,
1985).
14
Reaching a Consensus: Meta-Analytic Reviews, Reviewed
Giventhediverseandoftentimescontradictoryliteratureonthesubject,itmaybe
beneficialtoexaminemetaanalyticreviewsoftheliterature,whichFredricWolf(1986:
1011)notescanremoveissuesofreviewerbiasandfindamoreobjective,scientifically
accurateanswer.Here,Iamattemptingtodiscernwhetherthepsychologicalliterature
linksVGVwithaggressiveacts.
Anderson,etal(2010)conductedonesuchrobustreviewoftheliterature.
CompoundingGAMandsimilarmodelsintoabroadsocialcognitivemodel(ibid.:4
7),theyconductedametaanalyticreviewexaminingtheeffectsofVGVon(among
otherthings)aggressivebehaviour.Andersonetal(ibid.:158)establishedaseriesof
bestpracticesforinclusionintothereviewtobejudgedbytwoindependentreviewers.
AdditionallyAndersonetal(ibid.:160)usedthetrimandfillmethodwhenselecting
unpublishedjournalstoavoidtheriskofpublicationbias.Thus,thisreviewlooksto
drawconclusive,unbiasedfindingsfromtheliterature.ThisreviewfoundthatVGV
waspositivelycorrelatedwithaggressivebehaviour(ibid.:167)allowingAndersonetal
(ibid.:171)toconcludebywriting:
webelievethatdebatescanandshouldfinallymovebeyondthesimple
questionofwhetherviolentvideogameplayisacausalriskfactorfor
aggressivebehaviour;thescientificliteraturehaseffectivelyandclearly
showntheanswertobeyes.
HoweverFerguson(whohadpreviously[2007]conductedametaanalyticreviewof
thisliteraturewhichfoundnosupportforthehypothesisthatVGVexposureis
associatedwithaggressiveactsfindingsthatwereexplicitlydisputedinAndersonset
15
alsstudy[2010:1523])wasquicktodisputethefindingsofthisreviewinhispaper
MuchAdoAboutNothing:TheMisestimatingandOverinterpretationofViolentVideo
GameEffectsinEasternandWesternNations:CommentonAndersonetal.(2010).In
ithecritiquedseveralaspectsofAndersonetalsmethodology,forexamplethe
inclusionofunpublishedstudies(FergusonandKilburn,2010:175)andtheperceived
failuretoadequatelyaddressissuesofunstandardizedaggressionmeasurementinVGV
studies(ibid.).Anderson(Bushman,RothsteinandAnderson,2010)inresponse
defendedthesepracticesintheirpaperMuchAdoAboutSomething:ViolentVideo
GameEffectsandaSchoolofRedHerring:ReplytoFergusonandKilburn(2010),
furtheringthedebate.
Othermetaanalyticreviewsfailtoprovidemoreconclusiveresults.JohnSherry(2007:
254)foundthattheliteratureofferssomeevidenceforanarousaleffect,someevidence
foracatharsiseffect(ibid.257),yetconcludedthatOverall,itisclearthatvideogames
causeasmallincreaseinaggressionaftershorttermexposure.Thefactorsunderlying
thisincreasearenotclearlydiscerniblefromthecurrentresearch(ibid.:260).
16
Inconclusive Findings
Theintersticesofmetaanalyticmethodologydebatesarebeyondthescopeofthis
literaturereview,butsomeinferencescanbedrawnfromthisliterature.Firstly,while
inconclusive,theliteraturedoesindicatethatVGVlikelyincreasesaggression,ifonlyin
aminorway.However,thisliteraturedoesnotindicatethatVGVcausesaggressive
acts.DuringtheBrownv.EntertainmentMerchantsAssociationcourtcaseoutlinedin
theIntroductionsectionofthispaper,AndersonpresentedhisfindingstotheUS
SupremeCourt.Thecourtheldthatthese:
studieshavebeenrejectedbyeverycourttoconsiderthem,andwith
goodreason:Theydonotprovethatviolentvideogamescauseminorsto
actaggressively[n]earlyalloftheresearchisbasedoncorrelation,not
evidenceofcausation,andmostofthestudiessufferfromsignificant,
admittedflawsinmethodology(564U.S.____2011,p.1314).
Therefore,thepsychologicalliteratureonthesubjectdoesnotprovidesufficient
evidencetohypothesisethatVGVcausesindividualstoactaggressively.However,the
manystudieslinkingVGVtoincreasedaggressionmeansthattheGAMhypothesisis
worthexamininginthispaper.
17
18
VGV and Violent Crime
The Three Major Studies:
Asindicated,fewstudieshaveexaminedtherelationshipbetweenVGVandaggressive
actsinthefield.OnlyoneUnderstandingtheEffectsofViolentVideoGameson
ViolentCrime(Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard,2011b)isabletomakestrong
claimsofacausalrelationship.MichaelWards(2010)studyVideoGamesandCrime
willalsobeexaminedhere,alongwithDahlandDellaVignas(2009)studyDoes
MovieViolenceIncreaseViolentCrime?.Whilethelatterexaminesmovie,not
videogameviolence,itsmethodologycanbedrawnfromhere,asitwasbybothWard
(2010:272)andCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b:4)Allthreestudiesfound
thatexposuretotheviolentmediawasassociatedwithreducedcrimerates(Dahland
DellaVigna,2009:144;Ward,2010:269;Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard,2011b:
21).ThetwodominanttheoriestoexplainthisareVoluntaryIncapacitation(VI),and
Cathartic.VoluntaryIncapacitationpositsthatpotentialcriminalschoosetospendtheir
timeengagedwiththeviolentmediaandforgootheractivitieswithhighercrimerates
(DahlandDellaVigna,2009:25).Catharticpositsthatmediaviolenceleadstoreduced
aggressionduetoacatharticeffectofviewingtheviolenceonscreen(ibid.:7).
However,findingsufficientdatatosupporteithertheoryisdifficult(particularlyforthe
twoVGVstudies),duetothedifficultiesinvolvedinfindingasufficientproxyfor
violentmediaexposure.
19
Other Studies
Briefly,twootherstudiesinthisareahaverecentlybeenpublished,butneitherstudy
willbedrawnfromhere.ChristopherFerguson(2015:E12)examinedthecorrelation
betweenVGVexposureandyouthviolenceintheUS,butmadenoattemptstoestablish
acausalrelationship(ibid.:E1314),evenconcludingbynotingthathisfindingscould
likelybeanecological fallacy(ibid.).
Markey,MarkeyandFrenchs(2014)studyViolentVideoGamesandRealWorld
Violence:RhetoricVersusDatahasstrongethicalandmethodologicalflaws.Ethically,
despitemimickingmuchofthemethodologyofDahlandDellaVigna(2009)and
Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b),Markey,MarkeyandFrenchmakeno
attempttocredittheirwork.IndeeddespiteahighlythoroughreviewoftheVGV
literature(2014:25),thereisnomentionwhatsoeverofthesestudies.Whensimilar
resultswerefound,Markey,MarkeyandFrenchclaimedbothintheirstudy(ibid.)and
inlaterinterviews(Makuch,2014)thattheseresultsweresurprising.
Methodologically,whereitdoesdifferfromthesestudies,itoftenusesinferior
methodology.Forexample,itdrawscrimedatafromUniformCrimeReporting(UCR)
programdatainsteadoftheNationalIncidentBasedReportingSystem(NIBRS).Dahl
andDellaVigna(2009:11)notethatthelatterisbettersuitedtothistypeofstudythan
theformer,asitprovidesdataonviolentactsknowntothepolicebutdonotresultin
arrest.ThereforeMarkey,MarkeyandFrenchsstudywillnotbedrawnonfromhere.
20
Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?
DahlandDellaVignas(2009)studyexaminedtheeffectsofviolentmovieexposureon
samedayassaultsintheUSbetweentheyears19952004.Dailyboxofficerevenuewas
usedasaproxyformovieexposure,withmoviesbeinggroupedinto:StronglyViolent,
MildlyViolentandNonViolent(2009:9).UnlikeCunningham,EngelsttterandWard
(2011b)andWard(2010),DahlandDellaVigna(2009:15)heldthattheycouldassume
thatthisexposuretookplaceintheevening(6pm12pm)hours.Thestudyfoundthatan
increaseofonemillionintheaudienceforviolentmoviesdecreasedcrimeby1.06per
cent(stronglyviolentmovies)and1.02percentformildlyviolentmovies(ibid.:14).
DahlandDellaVigna(2009:31)alsoheldthatthesefindingssupportedVI.Amajor
reasonforthiswasthattheeffectofVGVwasstrongerforthenighttimefollowing
movieexposure(12am6am),thanduringtheeveninghours(0.0192and0.0130
respectively(DahlandDellaVigna,2009:38).Theyfoundthattheseestimateswereon
average1.5timeslargerforassaultsinvolvingalcohol(ibid.:2),suggestingthat
attendanceatviolentmoviesledtoincreasedsobriety,andthatviolentmovieattendees
wereforgoinganalternativeactivitywithincreasedcrimerates
21
Video Games and Crime
UsingVariationinthenumberofvideogamesstoresinanareaasaproxyfor
videogameexposure,Ward(2010)conductedapanelstudyonover400UScounties
between19942004,investigatingtherelationshipbetweenvideogamesandviolent
crime.Thestudyattemptedtoaccountforpotentialomittedvariablesbycontrollingfor
youthpopulation,poverty,unemploymentandpolicepresence(Ward,2010:265),allof
whicharethoughttopredictviolentcrimerates.Ofthesecontrols,onlypolicepresence
wasnotfoundtobesignificantlyrelatedtocrimerates(ibid.:270).Thus,Iwillcontrol
foralltheothervariablesinthispaper.
Ward(2010:269)foundthata1%increaseinthenumberofgamestoresinanarealed
toanaverage0.10%reductioninviolentcrime.
However,thereareseverallimitationstothisstudy.AsisacknowledgedbyWard
(2010:262),videogamestoresareaproxyforoverallgameplay,andnotjustVGV,and
thusthestudydidnottestforthespecificroleofVGVoncrime.Indeedforthese
reasons,Wards(2010)studywouldnotmeetAndersonetals(2010:158)bestpractice
criteria.
AlsoacknowledgedbyWard(2020,p.272)isthelackofanexogenoussourceinthe
variationofvideogameintensityacrosscounties.Withoutsuchaninstrumentvariable
(IV),thestudycouldnotproveacausalrelationshipbetweenVGVandviolentcrime.
Additionally,althoughitwasnottheaimofthestudy,thelackofdataonwhen
exposuretoVGVtookplacemeansthesefindingsfailtolendmuchadditionalevidence
ofeitherVIorCatharsis.
22
Understanding the Effect of Violent Video Games on Violent
Crime
Cunningham,EngelsttterandWards(2011b)studyexaminedtheeffectsofVGVon
crimeratesintheUSfrom20052008,usingsalesdatafromthetop50videogames
eachweekasaproxyforvideogameexposure.They(2011:17)usedreviewscores
fromvideogamewebsiteGamespotasanIV,findingthatitwaspositivelycorrelated
withvideogamesales(ibid.:34),butunrelatedtocrimesales(ibid.:20).Thiswasalso
usedalongwithmonthlydummyvariablestoaccountformuchoftheseasonalityof
bothvideogamesalesandviolentcrimerates(Ibid.:19).
Cunningham,EngelsttterandWards(2011b:1920)regressionanalysisfoundthat
whilewithoutlagneitherviolentnornonviolentvideogameshaveasignificanteffect
oncrimerates,videogameshaveaclearoverallnegativeeffectoncrimefor
specificationsthatincludefromonetofivelags.Interestingly,unlikeDahland
DellaVigna(2009),Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b:21,39)foundthat
nonviolentvideogameshaveamoresignificantnegativeeffectoncrimethanviolent
videogames.Thisledtheauthors(Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard,2011b:14)to
holdthatthesefindingssupportVI.
DespiteCunningham,EngelsttterandWards(2011b)studybeingthestrongest
conductedinthisfieldofresearch,therearestillseveralelementsthatcanbeimproved
uponinthispaper.
Firstly,thestudyfocusedonyoungpeople,ratherthanyoungmen,thelatterofwhich
committhemostviolentcrime(DahlandDellaVigna,2009:12)andarethe
demographicwhohavethegreatestpreferenceforviolentmovies(ibid.:34)andviolent
23
videogames(Fergusonetal,2008:11).Thus,itmaybemorebeneficialtoexamine
youngmales,insteadofyoungpeopleofbothsexes.
Secondly,usingweeklyvideogamesalesasaproxyforvideogameexposureprovides
nodataonwhentheexposuretakesplace,andthusCunningham,EngelsttterandWard
(2011b:14)wereonlyabletocompareweeklyvideogamesaleswithweeklyaggregated
crimerates.Abetterproxyforwhenthisexposuretakesplace,asDahlandDellaVigna
(2009)wereabletouse,couldleadtomoredetailedfindingsthatbettersupporteither
VIorCatharsis.
24
Insights Gained from Review
Asidefromprovidingusefulmethodologicalguidanceforperformingthistypeofstudy
thatwillbeexpandedoninthefollowingchapter,theliteraturereviewalsodisplayed
thedifficultiesinherentinperformingastudyinthisarea.
Principally,itoutlinedthedifficultiesinfindingasuitableproxyforVGVexposure.
Specifically,thereisnoreadilyavailabledataonwhenexposuretakesplace.This
meansthatCunningham,EngelsttterandWards(2011b)studyprovidesweaker
evidenceforcausation,andislessabletosupporteithertheVIorCatharsishypothesis
thanDahlandDellaVignas(2009)study.Therefore,aprincipalaimofthisstudywill
betodevelopsuchadataset,andthereforeIwillbeabletolargelymimicDahland
DellaVignas(2009)study.Thisshouldprovidemoreconclusivedatathanisavailable
intheexistingliterature.
Secondly,theliteraturehasprovidedthethreemainhypothesesthatwereoutlinedinthe
aimsofthestudy:VI,Catharsis,andGAM.ThepreexistingliteratureindictedthatVI
isthemostplausibletheory,howeverthedatacannotconclusivelyproveordisprove
anyofthesetheoriesinrelationtoVGV.Bymimickingmuchofthemethodologyof
DahlandDellaVignas(2009)strongerstudy,thispapershouldbeabletogatherdata
thatprovidesmoredefinitiveevidenceinfavourofonehypothesis.
25
3 METHODOLOGY AND
JUSTIFICATION
26
Study Design
AswithDahlandDellaDellaVigna(2009),Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard
(2011b)andWard(2010),thisstudywilluseanobservationalstudydesign.Whileitis
widelyacknowledgedthatobservationalstudiesfacedifficultiesinmakingcausal
claims(RemlerandVanRyzin,2010:3)suchadesignisnecessaryherebecauseas
Fergusonetal,(2008:3)note,itisnotethicalforresearcherstoprovokeinterpersonal
violence.Howeverbeyondthisnecessity,observationalstudydesignshaveseveral
benefitswhencomparedtothelaboratorystudiesexaminedintheLiteratureReview.
Forexample,itallowsmetoinvestigatethereal,tangibleeffectofVGVonviolentacts
insociety.AsCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b:12)note,laboratory
experimentscanhavestronginternalvalidity,butmaynothaveexternalvalidityonthe
incidenceofsociallycostlyaggressionfromviolentvideogameplay.AsDahland
DellaDellaVigna(2009:10)note,theselaboratoryeffectsdonotaccountforself
selection,ortimeuseeffects,andthereforecannotpredicttheeffectofVIonviolent
crimerates.ToinformpublicpolicyontherelationshipbetweenVGVandviolentcrime
insociety,itisnecessarytoobservethisrelationshipasitoccursinsociety,andnotina
laboratory.
Additionally,theLiteratureReviewprovidedseveralmethodstohelpdeterminea
causalrelationshipbetweenVGVandviolentcrime,suchasusingreviewscoresasan
instrumentalvariable.Thisshouldhelpavoidtheriskinherentinobservationalstudies
ofhavingapurelyendogenousindependentvariable(RemlerandVanRyzin,2010:9).
27
A New Proxy for Video Game Exposure
AsindicatedintheLiteratureReview,withoutanestimateofwhenVGVexposuretakes
place,previousstudieshavebeenlimitedintheirabilitytoestablishacausal
relationship.Forexample,CunninghamEngelsttterandWard(2011b)hadtoaggregate
crimetoaweeklylevel,whereasthismethodallowsmetoestablishtimeorderby
matchinghourlycrimerateswithhourlyVGVexposure,similartoDahlandDella
DellaVigna(2009).Italsohelpsestablishaplausiblemechanismforcausation,asseen
whenthismethodallowedDahlandDellaDellaVigna(2009)toconcludethatviolent
mediaexposurereducedviolentcrimebyincreasingsobrietyinthehoursafter
exposure.
Additionaldataonthetimingofexposureshouldalsoprovidefurtherevidencein
supportofoneormoreofthehypothesesbeingtestedhere.Forexample,itmaybe
foundthatVGVreducescrimeduringexposure,butincreasesitafter,supportingboth
VIandGAM.
28
Violent Crime
LikeCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b)andDahlandDellaDellaVigna
(2009),crimedatawillbedrawnfromtheUSNationalIncidentBasedReporting
System(NIBRS).AsDahlandDellaDellaVigna(2009:11)demonstrate,thisallowsme
tomatchtheviolentmediaexposurewiththeviolentcrimeatanhourlylevel.Asdo
Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b:15),IusetheFBIclassificationofviolent
crime.Iwillthusexaminecrimelabelledmurderandnonnegligentmanslaughter,
forciblerape,robbery,andaggravatedassault(CrimeintheUnitedStates,2010).
UnlikeCunninghamEngelsttterandWard(2011b)andasDahlandDellaDellaVigna
(2009)whousethedatafromtheNIBRS,thisstudyonlyusesdatafromtheeightstates
(Delaware,Idaho,Iowa,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,Vermont,VirginiaandWest
Virginia),whichhave100%oftheircrimebetween2007(theyearfromwhich
videogamesalesdataisavailable)to2012(themostrecentyearNIBRS)accountedfor
inthisdataset(StatusofNIBRSintheStates,2006).
WhileCunninghamEngelsttterandWard(2011b)andDahlandDellaDellaVignas
(2009)approachallowsthemtoattempttogeneralisetheirfindingstotheUSAasa
whole,bothacknowledgethisisproblematicastheavailabledataexcludesmanystates
withlargemarketssuchasCaliforniaandNewYork(Cunningham,Engelsttterand
Ward,2011b:12)aswellaslargecitieswherecrimeratestendtobehigher(Dahland
DellaDellaVigna(2009:11).Incontrast,thisstudydoesnotattempttogeneralisethese
findingstoallofAmerica,butinsteadseeksinternalvaliditywithintheseeightstates.
Futureresearchcanexpandthesefindings.
29
30
Videogame Exposure
Choice of Videogames
Thisstudywillexaminegamesreleasedonthetwocorehomeconsoles(Xbox360
andPlayStation3)fromthefirstfullcalendaryearbothwerereleased(2007)till2012.
Asthenextiterationofboththeseconsoleswasreleasedin2013,thisstudyexamines
almostthefulllifecycleofbothconsoles.Thisshouldhelppredicttheeffectofthe
newlyreleasedsystems,andguidefurtherpolicyinthisarea.
PCgamesareexcludedfromthisstudybecauseasof2013anestimated75%ofPC
salesaresoldthroughdigitalretailerSteam(Edwards,2013)andsalesfiguresforthese
gamesarenotreleased.Therefore,noaccuratedataonthesegamesexists.Gameson
NintendosWiiconsole(releasedin2006)arealsoexcludedastheyarenotdirectly
comparabletoXbox360andPlayStation3games.TheWiifocusesonfamilyfriendly
games,aimedatchildren,ademographicwithwhomvideogamesarenottraditionally
popular(Kuchera,2008).
Indeed,Tables13revealthedifferenceincontentinthesegames.Usingtheviolence
groupingsoutlinedinthedatagatheringsection,weseethatofthetop100bestselling
Wiigamesbetweentheyearsunderstudy,87%arenonviolent(NV),withonly4%
beingIntenselyViolent.Thisisincontrastto43%(NV)and32%(IV)forthe
equivalentselectionofXbox360games,and32%(NV)and33%(IV)forPlayStation3
games.Toavoidcomparingtwoverydifferentformsofvideogames,Wiidatawillnot
beincluded.
31
Estimating Hourly Concurrent Users
Thefollowingmethodologywillbeusedtoestimatethehourlynumberofusersfor
videogamesreleasedonthesesystemsduringtheyearsunderstudy:
32
Estimating hourly concurrent users of seven proxy Steam Games
Toestimatethetimingofexposureontheseconsolegames,dataontimingofexposure
ongamesreleasedontheSteamplatformwillbeusedasaproxy.Steamprovideson
goingdataonthecurrentnumberofusersofthetop100gamescurrentlybeingplayed
onthatplatform(SteamandSteamGameStats).Historicaldataonthenumberof
currentuserswillbegatheredonsevenSteamgamesathourlyintervalsforthefirst
sevenweeksfollowingeachgamesrelease.Thesesevengamesrepresentvarious
genresthatwillbematchedwithconsolegamesofthesame,orsimilargenre.
ThisisbecauseasFigures14indicate,videogamesareconsumeddifferentlydepending
ontheirgenre.Importanttonoteisthatthesepatternsremainrelativelyconsistent
acrossvariousyearsandseasons.Whilethismethodwillnotaccountfordailyshocks,
thegenreofagameshouldprovideausefulestimationofhowandwhenownerswill
usethegame.
33
Calculating the Percentage of These Users Located in the USA.
SteamalsoprovidesongoingdataontheamountofSteambandwidthbeingusedby
eachcountry(SteamDownloadStats).Usingasampleofthisdatafromathreeweek
periodinOctober2013,IwillfindtheaveragebandwidthbeingusedinAmericaasa
percentageofthetotalbandwidthbeingusedforeveryhouroftheweekoverthesethree
weeks.Forexample,thismethodcoulddeterminethattheaveragepercentofSteam
usersinAmericaat04:00onaFridayis20%.
ThisdatawillbematchedwiththehourlyconcurrentusersofthesevenSteamgamesto
estimatethehourlynumberofconcurrentusersintheUSA.Forexample,ifGameX
has200playersplayingit30hoursafterrelease,andthishouroccursat04:00ona
Friday,then40playersareusingthisgameinAmerica.
Thisstageofthemethodologyrequiresgreaterassumptionsthanwouldhavebeen
preferred,duetothelackofdataonthelocationofthehourlyconcurrentplayersforthe
sevenSteamgames.
Firstly,itisassumedthatthepercentageofplayersinAmericaisthesameacrossall
titles.Thisisunfortunatelyanecessaryassumptiontohavetomakeinthisfieldof
study,withCunninghamEngelsttterandWard(2011b)andDahlandDellaDellaVigna
(2009)bothhavingtomakesimilarassumptionsinassumingthatnationalboxoffice
attendance(DahlandDellaDellaVigna,2009:678)andvideogamessales
(Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard,2011b:4)aredispersedevenlythroughoutstates.
However,aswiththosestudies,thesenecessaryassumptionsshouldnotunderminethe
findingsasawhole.
34
Asecondissueisthatthesepercentagesaredrawnfrom2013,andnotintheyearsof
study.HoweverthesevenSteamgameswereallreleasedwithinafewyearsof2013,as
onewasreleasedin2010,twoin2011,threein2012,andonein2013.Barringthe
exceptionalgrowthofSteaminanewregionwithintheseyears(whichhasnotbeen
documentedbyanymediaoutlet),thesepercentagesshouldremainrelativelyconsistent.
Athirdissueisthatthesepercentagesdonotaccountforseasonality,instead
generalizingfromathreeweekperiodinOctober.However,asFigures14display
similargameusageacrossseasonsatagloballevel,itislikelythatthesepatternsare
trueofusersinAmerica.
35
Calculating the Percentage of Owners who are Playing
ThisdataisthenmatchedagainsttheestimatedtotalSteamunitssoldeachweek(see
DataGatheringsectionforhowthisdatawasgathered)tocalculatethepercentageof
USownersofthegameplayingeachhourforthefirstsixweeksfollowingrelease.Six
weeksischosenasCunninghamEngelsttterandWard(2011b:20)foundthatlagsof
uptofiveweeksinvideogamesalesmaybeassociatedwithcrimerates.
36
Estimating Console Video Game Exposure at the National Level
AswithCunninghamEngelsttterandWard(2011b),USsalesdatafortheconsole
gameswillbedrawnfromwebsiteVGchartz.com,whichdocumentsUSweeklysalesof
videogames(VGChartz).Thesegameswillthenbematchedtooneoftheseven
Steamgamesbasedontheirgenre.Thesamepercentagesofthehourlynumberof
ownersplayingthematchedSteamgameeveryhourafterreleasewillbeappliedtothe
consolegametoestimatethenumberofpeopleinAmericaexposedtothatgameata
givenhour.
37
Estimating Console Videogame Exposure at the State :evel
AswithWard(2010),Itakethenumberofretailvideogamestoresinanareatobe
indicativeofthepopularityofvideogamesinthatarea.Therefore,thepercentageof
totalUSgamesstoreslocatedineachoftheeightstatesiscalculatedforeveryyear
understudy.ThesepercentagesarethenappliedtothenumberofplayersinAmerica
exposedtoagivengameatagivenhour,todeterminethenumberofplayersineachof
theeightstatesexposedtothatgamethathour(adjustedfortimedifferences).For
example,if100peopleareplayinggameXathourYinAmerica,and1%ofUSgame
storesthatyeararelocatedinTennessee,thenitisestimatedthat1personisplaying
gameXathourYinTennessee.
38
Proxy Justification
Themostsignificantlimitationofthisestimateisthatvideogameexposureshouldbe
somewhatendogenous,andthiswillnotbefullycapturedinthedata.Forexample,days
withhighlevelsofprecipitationarelikelytobothincreasevideogameexposureand
reduceviolentcrime,whereasonlythelatterwillbecapturedinthisdata.However,itis
importanttonoteseveralfactorsthatmakethisasuitableproxyforvideogame
exposure.
Firstly,someoftheendogenousvariationinvideogameexposurewillbecapturedby
thevariationinsalesforeachvideogame.Figures14showthatonceagameis
purchased,howitisconsumedremainsrelativelyconsistent.Therefore,variationin
videogameexposurecausedbyfactorssuchasincomechangesarelikelytobemore
reflectedinthevariationofvideogamessales,andthisiscapturedinthemodel.
Secondly,becausethisvariationissomewhatendogenous,mostofthecontrolvariables
arelikelyacommoncauseofbothVGVexposureandviolentcrimerates.Regarding
theprecipitationexampleoutlinedearlier,DahlandDellaVigna(2009:679)notedthat
dayswithhighrainfallbothincreasedmovieattendanceanddecreasedviolentcrime.
Whiletheformerwillnotbecaptured,indicatorsforweather,TVprogrammeswith
highratingsandholidayswillallowmetounderstandwhytheeffectofVGVexposure
maydifferonthesedays,andacknowledgethatthisexposuredatamaybelessaccurate
forthesedays.However,asdisplayedinFigure5,evennationalholidayssuchas
ColumbusDayhavelittleeffectonhowvideogamesareconsumed,asidefromthe
12:0006:00PMtimeperiod.
Thirdly,Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b:20)wereabletouseLagintheir
studytofindsignificantresults.ThisisinspiteoftheacknowledgementthatGiventhat
39
wedonotknowtherelativeintensityofgameplayaftergamepurchase,wedonothave
strongpriorsonthepatternofcoefficientsontheselagsCunningham,Engelsttterand
Ward(2011a:7).ThedataprovidedbytheSteamproxygamesshouldallowforamore
accurateaccountofexposuretothesegamesintheweeksfollowingpurchase,and
shouldleadtomorepreciseresultsthanwerepossibleinthesestudies.Thuswhile
imperfect,thismethodologyshouldprovideamoreaccurateproxyforvideogame
exposurethanhasbeenusedinpreviousstudies.
40
10
Control Variables
41
Instrumental Variable
UsingreviewsfromgamingwebsiteGamespot.com,Cunningham,Engelsttterand
Ward(2011b:20,34)foundthatagamesreviewscoreswerepositivelycorrelatedwith
itssales,anduncorrelatedwithcrimelevels.However,Iwilluseeachgames
metascoretakenfromwebsiteMetacritic.com.Metacriticprovidesanaggregated
reviewscorebetween1100basedonthereviewseachgamehasreceived,givingextra
weighttomoreestablishedsources(FrequentlyAskedQuestions[a]).Thisweighted
averageshouldprovidemoreaccuratedataontheinformationthatinfluences
consumerspurchases,andavoidinstanceswheretheGamespotreviewscorediffers
fromtheaverage.ForexampleTheLegendofZelda:SkywardSwordhasametascore
of9.3(TheLegendofZelda:SkywardSword2011a)yetwasscoreda7.5by
Gamespot(TheLegendofZelda:SkywardSword2011b).
42
Socio-Economic Control variables
Iwillcontrolsomeofthesocioeconomicvariablesthatareknowntoinfluencecrime
rates.Theseareincomelevels,unemployment,population,youthpopulationand
urbanization.
43
Other Indictors:
LikeDahlandDellaVigna(2009:14,27),Iwilladdaseriesofweatherandnational
holidayindicators,asbothcanreducecrimeandincreaseVGVexposure(eventhough
asdiscussed,onlyvariationintheformerisseeninthedata).AlsolikeDahland
DellaVigna(ibid.:3),IwillcontrolfordayswithhighTVviewership,asthisconstitutes
anotherdistractionthatcanlowercrime.
44
11
Other Methodology
Like(Cunninghametal.2011b:12)Iwillusemonthlydummyvariablestoaccountfor
theseasonalityofcrimerates,anduseatimetrendtoaccountforthegeneraldeclinein
crimeovertime(ibid.:15).
AsDahlandDellaVigna(2009:15)didwithassaults,violentcrimewillbeaggregated
intothoseoccurringinthemorning(6am12pm),afternoon(12am6pm),evening(6pm
12am)andnighttime(12am6am),withhourlyvideogameexposurebeingaveraged
overthesameperiods.SimilartoDahlandDellaVigna(2009:12),thenightimeperiod
willbeassignedtothepreviouscalendardaytomatchthemwithvideogameexposure
thepreviousevening.Iwillrunaregressionanalysistoexaminetherelationship
betweenVGVandviolentcrime.
45
4 DATA GATHERING AND

PREPARATION
46
12
Steam Games
47
Hourly Concurrent Users for the Seven Proxy Steam Games
SinceSeptember2009,Steamswebsitehasbeendisplayingdataonthecurrentnumber
ofplayersofthetop100gamesbeingplayedatthatmoment(SteamandGameStats).
UnfortunatelySteamdoesnotstoreanddisplaythisdatapublically.However,a3rd
partywebsite,SteamGraph,(SteamGraph)hasbeencollectingthisdatatoallowusers
tocomparethepopularityofSteamgamesinagraphformat.
IcontactedthewebsitescreatorLauriMkinen,whokindlyagreedtoprovidemewith
thefulldatahehadcollectedforthesevenproxysteamgames(listedinTable4).The
.csvfileshadtwocolumns,oneforthetime(inUnixtimeatthe
UTC+02:00,+3:00(DLS)timezone),andanotherforthecurrentplayersatthattime.The
datawasnormallyscrapedevery15minutes,butoccasionallypointsweremissed.
Unixtimewaschangedtodd.mm.yyformatusingtheepochconverterwebapp
(Epochconverter).Startingfrommidnightoneachdategameswerereleased(in
PacificStandardTime[PST]),asthisiswhenSteamgameslaunch(SteamDowntime
andServerSupport)andendingsevenweeksafterthistime,hourlydatafromthe.csv
fileswasused.Thisdatadisplayedrowsforthenumberofplayerseveryhour,occurring
eitheronthehour,orthetimeclosesttothehour.Twentyrandomrowsfromthe
SkyrimspreadsheetarefoundinTable5.
48
Number of these Users Located in the US
SinceSeptember2008,SteamhasalsobeencollectingdataontheSteambandwidth
beingusedineachregion(SteamDownloadStats)althoughonceagainthisdataisnot
saved.However,oneuserofwebsitemathworks.com(SteamContentServerStatistics:
DownloadTraffic)scrapedthisdataathourlyintervalsfromthe16thSeptembertill5th
November2013.Toverifythisdatawasaccurate,IusedtheInternetArchives
WaybackMachine,whichsporadicallysavesandstoreswebsitesexactlyasthey
appearatthatpointintime(TheWaybackMachine).TheSteamstatswebsitewas
archivedat12pointsduringthistimeframe,andIwasabletoverifythatthedatafound
onmathworks.commatchedthedatafoundontheWaybackMachine.Anexampleof
thisisdisplayedinFigure6andTable6.
UsingMicrosoftExcel,IcalculatedthevalueofthebandwidthbeingusedinNorth
Americaasapercentageofthevalueofthetotalbandwidthbeingused,tocalculatethe
percentageofplayersinNorthAmericaateveryhour.Ithenaveragedthepercentages
ateveryhouroftheweekoverthefirst3weeksofOctober,excludingMonday24th
sinceColumbusDayfellonthisdate.TofindthepercentageintheUSA,Iusedthe
WaybackMachinetofindapointinthistimeframe14:07:50UTConthe13thof
October(SteamDownloadStats)thatdisplayedthepercentageofglobalSteamtraffic
thathadcomefromtheUSA(21.3%)andCanada(3.3%)thatweek.Therefore,Iheld
that86.58536585365853%ofallNorthAmericantrafficwasfromtheUSA,and
appliedthispercentagetotheNorthAmericandata.
Table7displaysthedataforSunday.Ithenmatchedthisdatawiththehourlytotal
playersdata(adjustedfortimedifference),todeterminethenumberofplayersin
Americaeveryhour,roundingofftoawholenumber..
49
Weekly Steam Sales
InlieuofpublicallyreleasedSteamsalesfigures,journalistKyleOrland(2014)
developedasystemofestimatingthesefiguresbyscrapingSteamuserspublicprofiles,
whichdisplayinformationonwhatgamestheuserowns.Orland(2014)hadovera
dozendevelopersprivatelydisclosetheirsalesdata,findinginallinstanceshissales
figureshadamarginoferroroflessthan10%.
SinceSteamusersprofilesalsocontaininformationabouttheirregion,Iemailed
OrlandexplainingthestudyandaskedifitwerepossibleforhimtoestimateUSsales
figuresforthesegames.Undertheconditionthatthesefigureswerenotpublically
disclosed,hekindlyobliged.GiventhetimeandeffortrequiredofOrland,Irestricted
thisdatatosevengames,whichasdiscussed,representedavarietyofgaminggenres.
WithOrlandcurrentlyupdatinghissalesfiguresforanewarticle,heusedanolder,
completeddatasettodeterminethesesales,whichisaccurateasofMarch2014.
Howeverthisdataonlyaccountsfortotalsalesasofthattime,notweeklysales.
Therefore,itisassumedthatthepercentageofeachSteamgamestotalsales(asof
March2014)thatweresoldeachweekisthesamepercentageaseachgamesconsole
counterpart.Therefore,Ichosesevengamesthatwerealsoavailableonhomeconsoles,
asUSsalesdataforthefirsttenweeksofthesegamesisavailableonVGchartz.com
(VGChartz)Therefore,Iusedtotalunitssoldasof2013.AsFigure7displays,game
salesareattheirlowestinthefirstfewmonthsinthecalendaryear.Therefore,thetotal
salesforeachgameasoftheendof2013shouldnotdiffergreatlyfromthetotalsalesas
ofMarch2014.
50
UsingMicrosoftExcelIaddedtogetherthesalesfiguresofboththeXbox360and
PlayStation3copiesofeachgame(exceptLeft4dead2whichwasonlyreleasedon
Xbox360).Next,Icalculatedthetotalunitssoldasofeachweekasapercentageofthe
totalunitssoldbytheendof2013.IthenappliedthesepercentagestotheSteamsales
figuresprovidedbyOrlandtoestimatethecumulativeweeklysalesofthesevenSteam
games,roundingofftothenearestwholenumber.
51
Calculating the Percentage of Owners Playing each of the
Steam Games.
Thetwospreadsheetswerecombinedwiththeirtimezonesaligned.Ithencalculatedthe
playersinAmericaeveryhourasapercentageoftheunitssoldinAmericaasofthat
weektocalculatethepercentageofownerswhoareexposedtoeachofthesevenSteam
gamesforthefirstsevenweeksfollowingrelease.20Randomrowsfromthe
NBA2K13spreadsheetcanbefoundTable8.
52
13
Console Games
53
Units Sold
AswithCunningham,EngelsttterandWard.(2011b:16),Idrewweeklysalesfigures
fromVGchartz.com.Tofitthemethodology,cumulativeweeklysalesfigureswere
used.Thedatawasscrapedviafree,opensourcewebscrapingsoftwareimport.io.
(Import.io)Howeverthisdataprovedhighlydifficulttoscrape(likelydeliberately
madesobyVGchartz,astheyofferanoptiontopayforthisdata(WeeklySoftware
Charts)Sincethedatacouldnotbecrawledasatable,itwascrawledasasinglerow,
withcolumnsforthereleasedate,gametitle,thegamessystem,andthetotalsalesfor
thefirsttenweeksofrelease.Oncedownloadedasa.csvfile,thesalesdatacouldbe
separatedintocolumnsandmatchedwiththereleasedate.
54
Matching with Steam Games via Genre
Findinggaminggenreclassificationsthatweredetailedenoughtoadequatelypredict
howusersconsumegamesproveddifficult.Forexample,FarCry3isashooting
game,butusesanopenworldsandboxdesign,andthischangeshowusersconsumeit,
asseeninFigure6.
XboxwebsiteTrueachievements(Trueachievements)anditssisterPlayStationwebsite
Truetrophies(Truetrophies)offeramoredetailedtieredsystemofgenresand
subgenres.Thesewebsiteswerescrapedviaimport.io.Gameswerelinkedaccordingto
theirsubgenre(EGFarCry3beingclassifiedinthesandboxsubgenreratherthan
theshootergenre).AfulllistofhowthegameswerematchedisfoundinTable4..
55
Metascore
Eachgamesnumericalmetascorewasscrapedfromthemetacriticwebsite
(Metacritic)usingimport.io.Sincethesegamescouldbedisplayedinalistformat
(GameReleasesbyTitle)thisdatawaseasytoscrapeusingamultiplerowscraping
format.Dataoneachgamestitle,systemandmetascorewasscraped.
56
Violence Rating
Similartomovies,videogamesaregivenaratingrangingfromEveryone(E)to
AdultsOnly(AO)bytheEntertainmentSoftwareRatingBoard(ESRB)TheESRB
alsoprovidesanindicatoroftheexplicitcontentinthegameincludingwhattypeof
violence(ifany)appearsinthegame,suchasFantasyViolenceandIntense
Violence.(RatingsGuide)AfulllistofESRBratingsandviolentcontentdescriptors
canbefoundinTable9.
ThisdatacouldnotbecrawledfromtheESRBwebsite,astheESRBratingisdisplayed
asa.JPGimagefile,withthecontentdescriptiondisplayedinoneline,leavingnoway
forinport.iotorecognisetheviolentcontentdescription(RatingsSearch).
Instead,gamedatabasemobygames.comwasused.MobyGamesallowsuserstofilter
gamesbyESRBrating(MobyGames[MatureViolence])andbythevariouscontent
descriptionssuchasintenseviolence(MobyGames[IntenseViolence]).
Gameswerefilteredbyeachofthepossibleratingsandviolencedescriptionsand
copiedintoMicrosoftExcel.Gameswithoutaviolentcontentdescriptorwerelabelled
nonviolent(NV).
57
Grouping Violence Ratings
SimilartoDahlandDellaVigna(2008:678)gameswereaggregatedintothosethatare
intenselyviolent(IV),Mildlyviolent(MV)andnonviolent(NV).However,veryfew
gamescontainednoformofviolence,asalmostanyactionwithinavideogamecan
looselybeclassifiedasviolent.Forexample,gamesbasedontheboardgameRisk
(RiskFactions)andchildrensmovieToyStory3(DisneyPixarToyStory3)both
containcartoonviolencewhilestillgivenanErating,demonstratingthatthelevelof
violenceisrelativelyminor.
Todeterminehowthesegamesshouldbeaggregated,allvideogamesweregroupedinto
oneExcelspreadsheetcontainingboththeirESRBratingandViolentContent
description.Herethesystemcolumnwasdeletedandduplicaterowsremoved,to
avoidcountinggamesthatwerereleasedontwosystemsasseparategames.
WhilegamescanbegivenhigherESRBratingsbasedoncontentotherthenviolence
(suchassexualcontent),Table9showsthatinallcases,agamecontainingintense
violencenecessitatedaMature(M)rating.Similarly,inallbutonecaseagame
containingViolencenecessitatedatleastaTeen(T)rating.Gamescontainingall
otherformsofviolencewerestilleligibleforanErating.Therefore,gamescontaining
IntenseviolencewerelabelledIntenselyViolent(IV),gamescontainingViolence
werelabelledMildlyviolent(MV),withallothergamesbeinglabelledNonviolent
(NV).
58
14
Estimating exposure
59
Percentage for Each State
AswithWard(2020,p.1213)dataonthenumberofretailvideogamestoreswas
drawnfromtheUScensusCountyBusinessPattern(CBP)(CountyBusinessPattern)
Table10displaysthenumberofgamestoresineachstateeveryyear,asapercentageof
thetotalUSgamestoresthatyear.
60
Combining Datasets
Datascrapedfromthethreedifferentsources(mobygames.com,vgchartz.com,
metacrtic.com)werecombinedintoonespreadsheetusingMicrosoftExceladdinDigdb
(Digbd).Thisallowedmetomergerowsfromvariousspreadsheetstogetherifthey
hadthesamevalueinboththeirtitleandsystemcolumns.
Thesignificantdifficultywiththismethodwasthatthevaluesinthesecolumnshadto
matchexactly.Giventhevastamountsofdata,thereweremanyinstanceswherethe
gametitleswerewrittenslightlydifferentlybyeachsource.Forexample,Metacritichad
titleswrittenasUFCUndisputed2009,JakandDaxterCollectionandNeedfor
SpeedProStreet,whereasVGchartzhadthesametitleswrittenasUFC2009
Undisputed,TheJakandDaxterCollectionandNeedforspeed:Prostreet.These
valueshadtobeadjustedmanuallyinorderforthedatatomerge.Thistime
commitmentmeantsomeofthesetitleswereremoved.However,noneofthesetitles
soldmorethan1000copiesintheirfirstnineweeksofrelease,makingthemrelatively
insignificantomissions.
61
Hourly Concurrent Players in the US
AllconsolegameswerematchedwithaSteamgamebasedontheirgenre.While81%
ofgameswerereleasedonaTuesday,sometitleswerereleasedonadifferentdayofthe
weekthantheSteamgametheywerelinkedto.Asthiswouldaffectthenumberof
usersusingthegameeachhourafterrelease,anothercolumnwasaddedtitledrelease
dateused.IfaconsolegamewasreleasedonadifferentDOTWthanitslinkedSteam
game,thereleasedateusedwasthefirstdatefollowingthereleaseoftheconsolegame
thatfellonthesameDOTWasthesteamgamewasreleased.VGchartzweeklysales
aredelimitedbySaturdays(WeeklyChartsIndex)andthereforeifaSaturdayoccurred
betweenthesetwodates,thegamescumulativesalesforweeks27wereusedinstead
ofweeks16.
ThenumberofplayersexposedtoeachgameinAmericawascalculatedasoutlinedin
themethodologysectionusingacombinationofMicrosoftExcelandMicrosoftSQL.
62
Hourly Concurrent Players in Each State
Thisdatawasdividedintoeightseparatespreadsheetsdisplayingthenumberofplayers
ineachstateinaccordancewiththepercentagesfoundinTable10,withtimezones
beingadjustedviaSQL.Table11detailsthevarioustimedifferencesbetweenstates.
Lastly,hours06wereremovedfromeachdataset.Thisisbecausethenumberofpeople
exposedtoSteamgamesforthefirstfewhoursfollowingreleasedoesnotserveasa
suitableproxyfordeterminingthenumberofconsoleusersoverthisperiod.Console
gamesarereleasedatmidnightineachstatestimezone,whereasSteamgamesare
releasedatmidnightinUTC08:00foralltimezones.Thismeantthatcertainstateswere
missingdataonthefirstfewhoursofrelease(forexampleSouthCarolinaisinthe
UTC5:00timezone,therenodatawasavailableforthefirstthreehoursofrelease).
Additionally,withtheexceptionofhighlypopulargameshavingmidnightreleases,
mostgamesarenotavailabletopurchaseatmidnight.Thereforehours06followingthe
releaseofagameareremovedfromthedataset.AsampleoftheWestVirginiadataset
isfoundinTable13.
63
15
64
Socio Economic Control Variables
Population and Youth Population
TheAmericancommunitySurvey(foundattheUScensusBureauwebsite,Factfinder)
(Factfinder)contains1yearpopulationestimatesforeveryyearunderstudy.The2007
dataislistedinTable14.
65
Population
Eachstatespopulationvaluewasfoundinthetotalpopulationrowunderthatstates
totalestimatecolumn.
66
Youth Population
UsingtheUNdefinitionofayouthassomeonebetweentheageof1524inclusive
(DefinitionofYouth)Iaddedtogetherthevaluesofthe15to19yearsand20to24
yearsrowsundereachstatestotalestimatecolumn,todetermineeachstatesyouth
populationasapercentageofitstotalpopulation.
67
Unemployment
UnemploymentdatawasgatheredfromtheUnitedStatesdepartmentofLabours
LocalAreaUnemploymentStatistics(LAUS)program(LocalAreaUnemployment
Statistics).Thisprovidedannualdataoneachstatesunemploymentrate.
68
Income
Annualmediumhouseholdincomewasgatheredforeachstatefromdataprovidedby
theUScensusbureau(StateMedianIncome).
69
Urbanization
Urbanizationratesweretheonlysocioeconomicvariablethatcouldnotbegathered
annually,asthisdataisonlycollectedeverytenyearsinthedecennialcensus
(FrequentlyAskedQuestions[b])The2010levelsforeachstatewereusedforall
yearsofthestudy.ThisdatawascollectedfromtheUScensusBureauwebsite(2010
CensusUrbanandRuralClassificationandUrbanAreaCriteria).
70
Combining Data
AllsocioeconomicdatawasplacedinanExcelspreadsheet,withaseparaterowfor
everydateunderstudy.20randomrowsfromtheVermontsheetarefoundinTable15.
71
16
72
Other Data
TV Ratings
Asdiscussed,theaimherewastomimicDahlandDellaVigna(2009:7034)byusing
dataonthetop10highestratedTVprogrammeseachyearfoundattheTimeAlmanac
website(InformationPleaseAlmanac)tocontrolforTVprogrammesthatwere
viewedbyover15millionpeopleaccordingtoNielsendata.Thenumberofviewers
wouldbeusedasanindicator(alongwithaseparateindicatorforSuperbowldates).
Howeverthisstepprovedimpossibletoreplicate.
Fortheyears20072010,thedataonlydisplayedtheNielsenratingfortheprogramme
(thepercentageofUShouseholdswhoownaTVthatwatchedtheprogramme),andnot
thetotalviewers.The2011datadisplayedboththeNielsenratingandtotalviewers,
whereasthe2012dataonlydisplayedtotalviewers.Allviewershipdatawastheseason
average.
BygatheringNielsendataonthenumberofUShouseholdsowningaTVforeveryyear
understudy(114.9MillionU.S.TelevisionHomesEstimatedfor20092010Season)
andSeidman(2012),IwasabletodeterminehowmanyhouseholdstheTVprogramme
wasviewedin.Forexample,in2012therewere114.20millionUShouseholdswitha
TV,soa1.0ratingmeantthat1.142householdswereviewingthisTVprogramme.
However,sincethetotalviewersdependedonwhichhouseholdsviewedtheTV
programme,therewasnowayofestimatingthetotalTVviewersfromthehousehold
viewingdata.Therefore,TVprogrammeswitharatingabove5.0wereincluded,asin
2011(theonlyyeardisplayingbothNielsenratingsandtotalviewers)NCIS5.2rating
equatedto15,174viewers.Thenumberofviewersusedinthedatasetisthenumberof
householdsviewingtheprogramme.
73
DataontheTVprogrammesUSairdateswascrawledfromwebsitetvrage.com,using
thesinglerowmethodininport.iooutlinedearlier.Superbowlairdatesweregathered
fromNielson.com(SuperbowlXLVIIIdraws111.5millionviewers,25.3million
tweets).
UnlikeTVrage,TimeAlamiccountedAmericanIdolTuesdayandAmericanIdol
Wednesdayasseparateprograms,withthesamebeingtrueofDancingwiththeStars
andDancingwiththeStarsresults.ThereforeAmericanIdolairdatesweredivided
intothoseoccurringonTuesdayandWednesday.DancingwiththeStarsresults
alwaysairsthedayaftertheoriginalprogramme,sothedatawasdividedtoreflectthis.
Aspreadsheetwascreatedwithrowsforeverydatecoveredinthedata.20samplerows
canbefoundinTable16.
74
Holiday Indicators
ThemethodfordeterminingholidayindicatorswaslargelymimickedfromDahland
DellaVigna(2009:703).However,thedatawasadjustedtoreflectwhatholidayswere
celebratedineachstate.Dataonholidayswasgatheredfromtimeanddate.com
(HolidaysinUnitedStatesin2015)Separateindicatorswereusedforeachofthe
following
1:Holidayscelebratedinthatstate.Thesenationalholidayscelebratedinallstatessuch
asMartinLutherKingDayandStateHolidayssuchasLeeJacksonDayinVirginia.If
thestatedoesnotcelebrateanationalholiday(ForexampleColumbusDayisnota
nationalholidayinDelaware[ColumbusDayinUnitedStates])itwasnotgiventhis
indicator
2:Thethreedayspredatingtheholiday
3:ThedayafteraholidayiftheholidayfallsonaMonday.
4:UnlikeDahlandDellaVignas(2009)methodwhichonlycontrolsfornational
holidays,Iaddedanotherindicatorforholidaysthatareknowntoincreasealcohol
consumption,andthusalsolikelyincreaseviolentcrime.Smartphoneapplication
Bactrackallowsuserstochecktheirbloodalcoholcontentviaabreathalyser,andhas
beenaggregatingover100,000testresultstodeterminetheUSdateswiththehighest
alcoholconsumption(BactrackConsumptionReport).Therefore,afourthindicatoris
usedforSt.PatricksDay,Halloween,ValentinesDay,andNewYearsEve
(rememberingthatthe12:006:00amperiodisanalysedasthepreviousday).
Aseparatespreadsheetwascreatedforholidaysineachoftheeightstates,asseenin
Table17.
75
Weather Variables
AswithDahlandDellaVigna(2009:704)theweatherdatausedwastheglobalsurface
ofdaydatafromthenationalclimaticdatacenter(GlobalSurfaceSummaryofthe
Day).Datawasgatheredfromeachstatesstatecapitalairport,asoutlinedinTable18.
Thedatawasdownloadedasaspacedelimitated.txtfile,andformattedinSPSSin
accordancewiththeGlobalSurfaceSummaryofDayDatacodebook(FederalClimate
ComplexGlobalSurfaceSummaryofDayData).Table19displayshowthisdatawas
formatted.
76
5 SPSS SETUP
Table20displayshowthedatawasformattedinSPSSatacaselevel.
77
17
Crime Data
TheNIRBScrimedatawasoriginallymergedintoonedatasetwithallunnecessary
variablesandcasesremoved.Thevariablesthatwerekeptwerethestatewherethe
reportedincidenttookplace,thetypeofcrimecommittedandtheageandsexofthe
offender.Allcrimesthatdidnotoccurinoneoftheeightstatesbeingstudiedwere
removed.AsseeninTable20,thecaselevelfilewasformattedtoshowallincidentsof
violentcrimethatoccurred(groupedbytimeandstate),aswellastheageandsexofthe
offender.
Thisdatawasthenaggravatedintotwodatasets.Onedetailingthenumberofviolent
crimescommittedineachstateatanhourlylevel,andtheotherdisplayingthesamedata
forviolentcrimescommittedbymalesages1829.Asamplefromtheformerisfound
inTable21.
78
18
Games Data
Thevideogameexposuredatawasaggregatedtodisplaythenumberofpeopleexposed
toNV,MVandIVgamesineachstateatanhourlylevel,matchingtheviolentcrime
data.Inordertodirectlycompareplayersacrossvariousstatesofvastlydifferentsizes,
inthemodellingthenumberofplayersisadjustedbythestatespecificyouthpopulation
size.Annualdataoneachstatesmaleyouthpopulationsizewasdrawnfromthe
AmericanCommunitySurvey.
Thismeantthatonlytheaggregatedgamesdata,andnotthecaselevelgamesdatawas
usedforanalysis.Therefore,IcouldonlyanalysethenumberofpeopleplayingNV,
MVandIVgameseveryhour,withoutdifferentiatingwhichgameswereactuallybeing
played.Whileitwouldhavebeenpreferabletoentertheindividualcaseleveldatafor
eachgame,duetothesizeandcomplexityofthisdata(1345rowsandover3000
columnsperstate),thiswasnotpossibleduetotimeconstraints.
Thisunfortunatelymeantthattheinstrumentalvariable(eachgamesmetascore)was
leftoutoftheanalysis.However,Tables2222.3showthatagamesmetascoreisa
goodpredictorofthenumberofunitssoldsixweeksafterrelease.Thisistrueofall
typesofvideogames,buttherelationshipisstrongestforIntenselyViolentvideo
games.Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b:20)foundthatagames
gamespotreviewscorewasunrelatedtoviolentcrimerates,andIcanthinkofno
plausiblereasonthatthiswouldnotalsobetrueofthisdata.Therefore,thisatleast
demonstratesthattheindependentvariableintheanalysisisnotpurelyendogenous.
79
19
80
Control Variables
Weather Controls
Theweathervariablesthatwereusedwereeachstatesdailysnowdepthandmaximum
precipitation.
81
Other Control Variables
Thesocioeconomic,holiday,andTVratingsdatawereenteredintoSPSSastheywere
formattedinMicrosoftExcel.Thisdatawaspreviouslydisplayedatdailyintervals.To
fitwiththerestofthedataset,thesevariablesweredisplayedathourlyintervals.
However,allvaluesremainedfixedacrossthe24hoursinaday.
82
20
Seasonality Controls
83
Dummy Variables
Dummyvariableswerecreatedforeachdayoftheweek.Additionally,dummy
variableswerecreatedforeachmonth,with11monthspecificdummyvariablesbeing
includedinthemodel,withDecemberbeingusedasthereferencevariable.
84
Additive Time Series
Atimeserieswasusedtoaccountfortheseasonalityofviolentcrime.Asseenin
Figures910,themagnitudeoftheseasonalfluctuationdoesnotvarywithinthedata,
andthereforeanadditivetimeserieswasused.TheAdditivetimeseriesmodelcanbe
displayedas
Where isthenumberofviolentcrimescommittedattimet.
representsthe
seasonalvariationinviolentcrimerates(withfigure9showingviolentcrimepeaks
duringthesummermonths.
Ttrepresentsthegeneraltrendinviolentcrime,whichinFigure9isshowntodrastically
reduceafter2008.Etrepresentstheirregularcomponentsofthismodel.
85
21
Data Aggregation
Thenumberofpeopleexposedtoeachvideogameathourlyintervalswasaveragedinto
theaveragenumberofplayersacrossthesegroupings:12:00am04:00am,04:00am
08:00am,08:00am06:00pm,06:00pm12:00am.Thesegroupingwereusedinsteadof
thegroupingsusedbyDahlandDellaVignaoutlinedearlierastheybettermatchthe
distributionofbothvideogameexposure(Figure11)andviolentcrime.Thisdatacould
thenbeanalysedagainstthelogtransformedtotalnumberofviolentcrimescommitted
ineachtimegrouping.
86
6 ANALYSIS
87
22
Crime Data
Usingthecaseleveldataset,Iwasabletoexaminewhenviolentcrimeswerelikelyto
occur.Table23displaysallviolentcrimescommittedacrosstheseeightstatesduring
theyearsunderstudy,groupedbydateandtime.
Table25showstheaveragenumberofincidentsofviolentcrimeineachtimegrouping,
withadditionaldataontheageandsexoftheoffender.Thisshowsthatin83%of
incidents,theoffenderwasmale.74%ofoffenderswereundertheageof29.This
demonstratesthatyoungandmalearesignificantlyoverrepresentedamongviolent
criminals.Thistablealsodemonstratesthatviolentcrimepeaksduringtraditional
partyinghours,withviolentcrimeratesbeinghighestduringFridayandSaturday
eveningsandnights.Thislendssupportfortheplausibilityforthevoluntary
incapacitationhypothesis,forifsomethingweretodrawyoungmalesawayfromtheir
moredangerouseveningactivities,itcouldlowerviolentcrimerates.
88
23
Regression Analysis
89
Methodology
Iuseamultivariableregressionanalysistodeterminetheincreaseinviolentcrimefor
everyincrementintheaveragenumberofpeopleexposedtoNV,MVandIVvideo
games.Thisdatawasanalysedacrossthetotalityofalleightstates.Thenumbersof
playersforeachtypeofgameareaveragedoverthecorrespondingstatespecific
populations.Imodeltheproductionfunctionforaggregatelogviolentcrimesaslinear
overtheaveragedgameplayers
mv
iv
ln V t = 0+ 1 Gnv
t + 2 G t + 3 G t + X t + t
Where t isanadditivelyseparableerrorterm.Thecoefficient 3 canbe

interpretedasthe as the increaseviolent crimeforeachincrementofaveraged
playerofintensivelyviolentgames. X t isasetofcontrolvariables,including
seasonalandsocioeconomiccontrolvariables..
90
Short Run Effects
Table26displaystheeffectofhourlyvideogameexposureonhourlyviolentcrime
rates.Onceafullsetofcountiesisadded,norelationshipisfoundforanytypeofvideo
game
Table27displaystheeffectofvideogameexposureonviolentcrimeusingthetime
groupingsoutlinedearlier.Onceafullsetofcontrolsareadded,allvideogamesareseen
toreduceviolentcrime.However,theeffectsizeisinverselyrelatedtothelevelof
violenceinthegame,withnonviolentvideogameshavingthelargesteffectsize(
0.3005)andintenselyviolentgameshavingthesmallest(0.0565).
Table28displaysthesamedataforviolentcrimescommittedbyyoungmales.Unlike
forthewiderpopulation,herenonviolentvideogamesareunrelatedtoviolentcrime
ratesonceafullsetofcontrolsareadded.Interestingly,theeffectsizeis94%largerfor
thisdemographicthenthepopulationasawholeformildlyviolentvideogames,and
138%largerforintenselyviolentvideogames.Thislendssupporttothevalidityof
thesefindings,astheeffectsizeislargerforthedemographictowhomviolent
videogamesaremostpopular.
91
Medium Run Effects
Totestthemediumruneffectofvideogameexposure,variouslagspecificationswere
appliedtoexaminetheeffectofvideogameexposureonviolentcrimeduringthetime
groupingafterexposure,twotimegroupingsafterexposure,andthesametimegrouping
thedayafterexposure.Table29displaystheseresults.Interestingly,onlynonviolent
videogamesreduceviolentcrimeratesinthehourfollowingexposure,andviolent
videogamesareassociatedwithaslightincreaseinviolentcrimeinthehoursfollowing
exposure.Noteworthyisthatintenselyviolentvideogamesappeartoincreaseviolent
crimemoreinthehoursfollowingexposurethantheyreduceviolentcrimeduring
exposure,suggestingthatintenselyviolentvideogamesleadtoaslightnetincreasein
violentcrime.
Table30displaystheresultswhenthesametestwasconductedontheyoungmales
dataset.Whilenoeffectwasfoundintheshortrun,herenonviolentgamesare
correlatedwithareductioninviolentcrimeinthehoursfollowingexposure.Forthis
demographic,bothMVandIVgamesarerelatedtoanincreaseinviolentcrime
followingexposure,withtheeffectsizeofIVgamesbeing260%largerthaninwider
population.ForallLagspecifications,intenselyviolentvideogamesincreaseviolence
inthemediumrunatalmostdoubletheratetheyreduceitduringtheshortrun.
Moderatelyviolentandnonviolentvideogamesbothhaveanetnegativeeffecton
violentcrime.Interestingly,unlikeinTable29,thereislittledifferencebetweenthe
effectofMVandIVviolentgames,suggestingthatforthisdemographicitisthe
presenceof,ratherthanthelevelofviolencethataffectsviolentcrimerates.ThatMV
gamesdidnotincreaseviolentcrimeinthemediumrunforthewiderpopulation
92
suggeststhatthelevelofviolenceinagamemostaffectssegmentsofthepopulation
lesspronetoviolence.
93
7 FINDINGS
94
24
: VGV is Related to Violent Crime
AsseeninTables2630,theeffectofvideogameexposurevariesdependingonthe
levelofviolencewithinthevideogame.Whilethisvariationislikelylargelyinfluenced
byselfselection,thelevelofviolenceinavideogameisstillseentoeffectviolent
crimeratesbothduringandafterexposure.Therefore,theclaimthatvideogame
violenceisunrelatedtoseriousactsofaggressioncanberejected.
95
25
The effect is Most Significant for Young Males
Asalreadyoutlined,theeffectsizeislargerwhenthedependentvariableishourly
violentcrimeratesofmalesaged1829.Thisfitswiththefindingsofpreviousresearch
inthisarea.
96
26
The Catharsis Hypothesis is Rejected
AsseenisinTable26,oncethefullsetofcontrolsareadded,theeffectofnonviolent
videogamesis5.3timesstrongerthanintenselyviolentvideogames,and1.9times
strongerthanmildlyviolentvideogames.IfVGVexposurehadacatharticeffect,we
wouldpredicttheoppositetobetrue.AlthoughasseeninTable27,theseresultsarenot
foundwhenexaminingviolentcrimescommittedbyyoungmales.
However,themediumruneffectofVGVprovidesfurtherevidenceagainstthis
hypothesis.Forbothdatasets,nonviolentvideogamesreduceviolentcrimeinthe
mediumrun,withtheoppositebeingtrueofintenselyviolentvideogames.The
catharsishypothesiswouldpredictadecreaseinviolentcrimeinthehoursfollowing
exposuretotheviolentvideogames.Therefore,thishypothesisisrejected.
97
27
The Data Supports the Voluntary Incapacitation
Hypotheses.
Bycomparingtheeffectofvideogamesduringexposure(thecontemporaneouseffect)
andafterexposure(thedelayedeffect),evidenceisfoundsupportingtheVIhypothesis.
Violentvideogamesonlyreduceviolentcrimeduringexposure,andnotafter.Indeed,
asdiscussedbelowthedataindicatesthatthedelayedeffectofVGVistoincrease
violentcrime.Thus,thisdataindicatesthatthereductioninviolentcrimeisduetothe
timeuseeffectsofplayingvideogames,andthereforetovoluntaryincapacitation.
98
28
This Data also Provides Evidence in Favour of GAM
EvenwhenaccountingforindividualsselfselectingintoVGVexposureinthefield,the
datahereindicatesthatintenselyviolentvideogamesarerelatedtoanincreasein
violentcrimefollowingexposure,withthereversebeingtrueofnonviolentvideo
games.GAMpredictsthatVGVincreasesplayersaggressionfollowingexposure,and
thatincreasedVGVwillleadtomoreseriousactsofaggression(hereviolentcrime).
Tables29and30showthatthisistruebothforallviolentcrimescommittedandfor
thosecommittedbyyoungmales.Thisisnotfoundwithnonviolentvideogames.This
mirrorstheresultsAndersonandDill(2000)foundinthelaboratory,andsupportsthe
GAMmodel.
99
8 CONCLUSION
100
29
Reflection on Aims
Reflectingonthefouraimsoutlinedinx,itisevidencethatthisstudyhassucceedin
bothfindingacorrelationbetweenVGVandviolentcrime,andhasbeenabletousethis
datatosupportanexistinghypotheses(bothVIandGAM).
Thedataalsoindicatesthatthestudysuccessfullyachieveditsfirstaim,tofinda
suitableproxyforthetimingofVGVexposure.Thelessaccuratetheproxyis,themore
randomtheestimateforthehourlynumberofpeopleexposedtoeachtypeofvideo
gamewouldbe.However,asseeninTables2627,whenmatchedwithhourlycrime
rates,statisticallysignificantresultsarefound.ForexampleinTable27itisseenthat
theseresultswouldonlybefoundin1outof100incidentswerethenullhypothesistrue
(asitwouldbeiftheestimationwashighlyinaccurate).Additionally,weseediffering
contemporaneousanddelayedeffectsofVGVexposure,matchingwhatwouldbe
predictedbytheexistingVIandGAMhypotheses,withthesefindingsreaching
significance.Weretheestimationhighlyinaccurate,therewouldlikelybelittle
differencebetweenthecontemporaneousanddelayedeffectsofVGVexposure.
Therefore,itappearsthatthiswasasuitableproxytobeused,thatcanbefurtherrefined
infuturestudies.
Theaimleastconclusivelyachievedwastoestablishthecorrelationtobeacasualeffect
ofVGVonviolentcrime.Ontheonehand,ithasbeenshownthatcomparingthe
contemporaneousanddelayedeffectsallowstimeorderandaplausiblemechanismto
beestablished.Ontheotherhand,removingtheinstrumentalvariablefromthefinal
analysislimitstheabilitytodrawcausalinfluencesfromthisdata.Sincethisvariable
101
wasremovedduetotimeconstraintsandnotoutofmethodologicalnecessity,future
studiescanincludethisinstrumentalvariableintheiranalysis,andmakestrongerclaims
ofacausalrelationship.However,ataminimumthisstudysuggeststhatthisisacausal
relationship,whileacknowledgingthatfurthertestingisneeded
102
30
Concluding remarks
103
Comparison with Previous Research
Whencomparingtheresultsofthisstudytopreviousliterature,itisworthrecallingthat
asdiscussedearlier,theseresultshaveonlybeenfoundacrosseightUSstateswith
specificcharacteristics(forexample,noneofthemcontainlargecitieswhereNIRBS
dataisnotcollated),andthuscautionshouldbeexercisedwhengeneralizingtheir
resultsandcomparingthemtoexistingresearch.However,theresultsofthistestmirror
someofthefindingsinpreviousliterature.
LikeCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b)andDahlandDellaVigna(2009),I
findthatviolentmediaisrelatedtoadecreaseinviolentcrime,withthiseffectbeing
strongestforyoungmales.Likethesetwostudies,Iattributethistovoluntary
incapacitation.HoweverunlikeCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b),increased
exposuretointenselyviolentvideogamesisassociatedwithanetincreaseinviolent
crime.Thedifferentresultscouldbeattributedtothisstudymeasuringtheeffectof
VGVonviolentcrime,withCunningham,EngelsttterandWards(2011b:36),study
measuringtheeffectonallcrimeandthepercentageofcrimesthatareviolent(ibid.:
37).However,likeCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b),andDahland
DellaVigna(2009),thedataheredemonstratesthatasawhole,increasedvideogame
exposureisrelatedadecreaseinviolentcrime.
104
New Insights Developed
Bydevelopedanewproxyforvideogameexposure,thisstudyhascontributedtwonew
insightstothestudyofVGV.
105
New Evidence Linking VGV to Real Life Serious Acts of Aggression.
Whilenottheprimaryaimofthisstudy,thefindingshereprovidenewdatafromthe
fieldsupportingGAM.Asdiscussedearlier,duetoethicalconcernsaboutprovoking
interpersonalviolence,manyhaveheldthatpreviouslaboratorystudieshavebeen
unabletoprovidesufficientevidencelinkingVGVtoanincreaseinseriousactsof
aggression.Additionally,withoutaproxyforwhenVGVexposuretakesplace,
Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b)andWard(2010)wereunabletoexamine
thedelayedeffectofVGVexposure.Forthefirsttime,thedelayedeffectofVGV
exposureonviolentcrimehasbeenexaminedinalargescaleobservationalstudy.By
demonstratingthatviolentvideogamesincreaseviolentcrimeratesfollowingexposure,
thisstudyhasprovidedevidencelinkingVGVexposuretoreallifeseriousactsof
aggressionthathasbeenabsentinpreviousstudies.
106
The Catharsis Hypothesis has Been Disproven
WhileCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b)heldthattheirfindingssupported
theVoluntaryIncapacitationandnottheCatharsishypothesis,withoutanestimationof
thetimingofexposure,littleconclusiveevidenceinsupportofeithertheorycouldbe
provided.Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b)drawthisconclusionsolelyfrom
thefactthatnonviolentvideogamesreduceviolentcrimebymorethanviolentvideo
games,incontrasttoanearlierdraftofthestudywheretheoppositewasfound,which
washeldtosupportCatharsis(Cunningham,EngelsttterandWard[2011a].As
outlined,bycontrastingthecontemporaneousanddelayedeffectsofVGV,more
conclusiveevidenceagainstthecatharsishypothesiswasfound.Whentakenwiththe
furtherevidencesupportingGAM(theinverseofwhatwouldbepredictedbythe
Catharsishypothesis),itisheldherethatthisstudyprovidesnearconclusiveevidence
againsttheCatharsishypothesis.Unlikepreviousstudies,weholdthatthisstudy
providessufficientevidenceinsupportoftheVoluntaryIncapacitationhypothesis.
Thus,byfindingnewevidencesupportingGAMandVI,andbydisprovingthe
Catharsishypothesis,thisstudyhasyieldednewinsightsintotherelationshipbetween
videogames,VGV,andviolentcrimeratesthatcanhelpguidefuturepolicyinthisarea.
107
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Table1:TopSellingWiiGames
120
Table1Theworldwidetop100bestsellingWiigamesthatwerereleasedbetween
20072012.Rankedbytotalworldwidesales(accurateasof06/03/2015),notthetop
sellinggamesbetweentheseyears.DatagatheredfromVGChartzlistofallgames
releasedonWii,rankedbysales(VGChartz:Wii).Gamesreleasedoutsideof2007
2012wereremoved,withtheremaininggamesrankedfrom1100.Posrepresents
therankingofthegame,basedonunitssold.Titlerepresentsthetitleofthegame.
Yearrepresentstheyearitwasreleased.Vratingrepresentstheviolencerating,in
accordancetothemethodologyoutlinedinchapter4.2.5
121
Table2:TopSellingXbox360Games
Table2:Theworldwidetop
100bestsellingXbox360
gamesthatwerereleased
between20072012.Ranked
bytotalworldwidesales
(accurateasof06/03/2015),
notthetopsellinggames
betweentheseyears.Data
gatheredfromVGChartzlist
ofallgamesreleasedon
xbox360,rankedbysales
(VGChartz:Xbox360).
Gamesreleasedoutsideof
20072012wereremoved,
withthereaminggames
rankedfrom1100.Pos
representstherankingofthe
game,basedonunitssold.
Titlerepresentsthetitleof
thegame.Yearrepresents
theyearitwasreleased.V
ratingrepresentsthe
violencerating,inaccordance
tothemethodologyoutlined
inchapter4.2.5
122
Table3:TopSellingPlaystation3Games
Table3:Theworldwidetop100bestsellingPlaystation3gamesthatwerereleasedbetween20072012.Rankedbytotal
worldwidesales(accurateasof06/03/2015),notthetopsellinggamesbetweentheseyears.DatagatheredfromVGChartzlistof
allgamesreleasedonPlayStation3,rankedbysales(VGChartz:PlayStation3).Gamesreleasedoutsideof20072012were
removed,withtheremaininggamesrankedfrom1100.Posrepresentstherankingofthegame,basedonunitssold.Title
representsthetitleofthegame.Yearrepresentstheyearitwasreleased.Vratingrepresentstheviolencerating,inaccordanceto
themethodologyoutlinedinchapter4.2.5
Figure1:SteamGraphDataforShootingGames
123
Figure2:SteamGraphDataforRolePlayingGames
Figure2DisplaysSteamGraphdataforshootinggamesBioshockInfinite,DeusExHumanRevolution,DukeNukemForeverand
SniperEliteV2.(SteamGraphb)
Figure3DisplaysSteamGraphdataforroleplayinggamesTheElderScrollsV:Skyrim,DarkSouls2,SpiralKnightsandFallout
NewVegas. Source:(SteamGraphc)
124
Figure3:SteamGraphdataforStrategyGames
Fig1.3
Figure4:SteamGraphdataforSportsGames
Figure3SteamGraphdataforstrategygamesXComEnemyUnknown,TotalWar:Rome2,DawnofWar2Retributionand
R.U.S.E(SteamGraphd)
Fig4:SteamGraphdataforsportgamesNBA2K14,ProEvolutionSoccer2015andFootballManager2013(Russian).TheRussian
versionoffootballmanagerwasusedastheinternationalversionwasvastlymorepopularthantheothertwogames,thusscalingthe
graphastomakeitunreadable.(SteamGraphe)
125
Figure5:SteamBandwidthUsageComparison
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
Avg Bandwidth
(7th,21st)
Bandwidth (14th)
Figure5:ComparingtheSteamBandwidthbeingusedinAmericaonthe14thofOctober(ColumbusDay)withtheaverageSteam
bandwidthfromtheMondaysprecedingandfollowingColumbusDay.Datagatheredandformattedasoutlinedinchapter4.1.2.
However,thehourlybandwidthbeingaccountedforbytheUSAisnotcalculatedasapercentageofthetotalglobalbandwidth.
TimezoneisUTC05:00
126
Table4:GenreGroupings
Table4outlineshowconsolegameswerematchedwithsteamgamesaccordingtotheirsubgenre.
BioshockInfiniterepresentsthetypicalvideogame,consistingofalinerstoryorsequenceoflevelsthattheusercompletesaftera
certainnumberofhours,thoughtheymayreplayitafter.Thisismostakintohowconsumersexperiencetelevisionprogrammes.
Portal2representssimpleplatformingbasedgames,whichareoftenmorechallengingtocomplete,andhavehigherreplayvalue
thenothergenres.FarCry3representssandboxgames,whicharenonlinear,andplaceusersinanopenendedworldtoexplore,
whichtendstorequirealargertimecommitmentthangameswithlinearcampaigns.XCOM:EnemyUnknownrepresentsstrategy
basedgames,oftenakintoboardgames,whereplayersmuststargazeawaytovictory,orareplacedinchargeofmanaging
resourcesforasocietyorgroup.TheElderScrollsV:Skyrimrepresentsroleplayinggames,whereplayerstakeontheroleofa
heroinanepicquest.Thesegamesnormallyrequireamassivetimecommitmentfromtheplayers.NBA2k13representssports
games.Sincethereisaseparatesubgenreforeverysport,allsubgenresotherthanmanagementaregiventhevalueallothersin
thistable.Lackingamoresuitableproxy,drivingandfightinggamesareconsideredsporttitles,astheytendtobedesigned
similarly.
Difficultieswerefacedfindingaproxyforpartybasedgamessuchasmusicandboardgames,whicharedesignedtohavegroups
playtogetheraroundaTV.DuetothemoresolitarynatureofthePCplatform,suchgamesdonotthriveonthismarket.Instead,
Left4dead2wasusedasaproxy,asthisgameisfocusedon4playercooperativeplay,albeitonlineinsteadofoffline(Steam
Community).However,thefocusongettingagroupoffriendstogethertoplaymakesitthemostsuitableproxyfortheseformsof
games.
127
Table5:HourlyConcurrentPlayersofTheElderScrolls:SkyrimonSteam
128
Figure6:SteamBandwidthStatsWebpage
Table6:SteamBandwidthStatsData
Figure6displaysascreenshotofthesteamdownloadstatswebpage(SteamDownloadStatsb)asitappearedat10:45:28 on the
4thofNovember2013.
Table6displaystheSteambandwidthbeingusedbyeachregionatthetimeanddateindicated.NA=NorthAmerica.EU=Europe.
A=Asia.R=Russia.AU=Australia.SA=SouthAfrica.AF=Africa.O=Other.C=Current.P=Peek.Therowclosesttothetimeof
Figure6ishighlighted.ThisrowsdataexactlymatchesthedatafoundinFigure6.ThisverifiesthatthedataonthisTableis
correct.
129
Table7:AveragePercentageofGlobalSteamBandwidthAccountedforbyAmerica.
Table7displaysthataveragepercentofsteambandwidthbeingaccountedforbytheUSAeveryhouronaSunday.Averageis
overthefirstthreeweeksofOctober2013,asoutlinedinchapter4.1.2.TimezoneisUTC00:00.
130
Figure7:SeasonalityofVideoGameSales
Figure7:Alinechartdisplayingtheseasonalityofvideogamesales,asfoundinCunningham,EngelsttterandWard(2011b:31)
131
Table8:PercentageofOwnersPlayingNBA2k13
Table8displayspercentageofthoseUSsteamuserswhoownNBA2k13whoareplayingiteveryhour.USunitssoldrepresents
theunitssoldthatweek,changingevery168hours.USunitssoldcalculatedasoutlinedinchapter4.1.3.TimezoneisUTC08:00
132
Figure8:FarCry3SteamGraphData
Figure8displayssteamgraphdataforBioshockInfinite,DeusExHumanRevolution,FarCry3.AssassinsCreedIV:BlackFlag
andTheForrest.WhileBioshockInfinite,DeusExHumanRevolutionandFarCry3areallshootinggames,FarCry3usagemore
closelyresemblesopenworld/sandboxgames,hereAssassinsCreedIV:BlackFlagandTheForrest,thantraditionalshooting
games.
133
Table9:ERSBRatingsandViolenceDescriptors
Table9:ThecorrelationbetweentheERSBRating,andERSBviolentcontentdescriptorsamongallgamesincludedinthisstudy.
Gamesthatappearonbothsystemsarecountedasasinglegame.
134
Table10:PercentageofTotalUSVideoGameStoreinEachState
Table10:ThenumberofvideogameretailstoresineachstateasapercentageofthetotalvideogameretailstoresinAmericafor
everyyearunderstudy.AlldatagatheredfromtheUScensusCountyBusinessPattern(CBP)(USCensus).
135
Table11:StateTimeZones
Table12:DaylightSavingsTimes
Table11:Timezonesforthevariousstates,gatheredfromWebexhibits.org(Webexhibits).
BothIdahoandTennesseearespreadacrosstwodifferenttimezones.IdahocontainsregionsinboththePacificTimeZone(PTZ)
andMountaintimeZone(MT)(TimeTemperature,Idaho).TennesseecontainsregionsinboththeCentralTimeZone(CTZ)and
EasternTimeZone(ETZ)(TimeTemperature,Tennessee).Forsimplicity,onetimezoneisusedforeachstate.Thisisthetime
zoneofeachstatescapital.IdahosstatecapitalBoiseisinMTZ.TennesseesstatecapitalNashvilleisinCTZ.Therefore,these
timezonesareusedfortheentirestate.
Table12:Thepointsatwhichthetimezonesinthedatasetswereadjustedfordaylightsavings.Datagatheredfromb4time.com
(b4time).
136
Table13:WestVirginiaVideoGameExposureData
Table13:Dataforthefirst7hoursfor10gamesintheWestVirginiadataset.
137
Table14:AmericanCommunitySurveyData
Table14:TheDelawareandIdahosectionsoftheAgeandSextablefromthe2007AmericanCommunitySurveydata.Source:
AmericanFactfinder(AmericanFactfinder).
138
Table15:VermontSocioEconomicData
Table15:20rowsfromthedatasetofVermontssocioeconomiccontrolvariables.Separaterowswereaddedforeverydateunder
study.Thevaluesforallcontrolvariableschangedannually,withtheexceptionofUrbanPopulationwhichremainedconsistent
acrossalldates.Alldatagatheredasoutlinedinchapter4.4
139
Table16:TVRatingsData
Table16:20randomrowsfromtheTVratingsdataset.AlldatagatheredasoutlinedinChapter4.5.1.Avalueof0isgiventoall
dateswhereaTVprogrammewithaseasonaverageNielsenratingofabove5.0thatyeardidnotair.
140
Table17:WestVirginiaHolidayData
Table17:20randomrowsfortheWestVirginiaholidaycontrolsspreadsheet.Alldatagatheredandformattedasoutlinedin
chapter4.5.2.An(A)beforetheholidaytitleindicatesthatthedateoccursaftertheholiday,whereasa(B)indicatesthatdateoccurs
beforetheholiday
141
Table18:WeatherStationInformation
Table19:WeatherVariableCoding
Table19.2:
Table18:ThesourceoftheGlobalSurfaceSummeryofDayDatausedforeachoftheeightstates.Inallcases,thedatasetfrom
theweatherstationinthestatecapitalairportwasused.AlldatagatheredfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmospheric
Administrationwebsite(NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration).
Table19:HowthevariablesintheGlobalSurfaceSummeryofDayDatawerecodedinSPSS,inaccordancewiththeGlobal
SurfaceSummeryofDayDatacodebook(FederalClimateComplexGlobalSurfaceSummaryofDayData).
Table20:CaseLevelSPSSData
Table20:AsampleofthecaselevelSPSSdata.INCDATErepresentsthedate,withtimebeingthehourssincemidnightofthat
date.Foreveryviolentcrimethatoccursatthattime,arowisaddedtothedataset.Ageandsexrepresenttheageandsexofthe
offender,withmalescodedas1andfemalescodedat0.NV_Players,MV_PlayersandIV_Playersbeingthenumberofpeople
exposedtononviolent,mildlyviolentandintenselyviolentvideogamesatthathour.SNDPrepresentscurrentsnowdepth,and
MAXrepresentsmaximumprecipitationreportedinthatstatethatday.Allothervariablesmergedastheywereformattedin
Microsoftexcel.
142
143
Table21:CombinedViolentCrimeDataset
Table21:Asampleofthecombineddatasetforallreportedviolentcrime.INCDATEandtimerepresentthedateandtime.
SvCrimerepresentsthenumberofreportedviolentcrimesinthatstatethathour.NV_Players,MV_PlayersandIV_Playersbeing
thenumberofpeopleexposedtononviolent,mildlyviolentandintenselyviolentvideogamesatthathour.SNDPrepresents
currentsnowdepth,andMAXrepresentsmaximumprecipitationreportedinthatstatethatday.Ifaholidayoccursonthatdate,1
valueisplacedintheappropriateholidayindictorcolumn,accordingtoindicatorgroupingsoutlinedinchapter4.5.2.Allother
variablesmergedastheywereformattedinMicrosoftExcel.
144
Table22:TheEffectof'MetascoresonSales
Table22.1:IntenselyViolentVideoGames
Table22.2:MildlyViolentVideoGames
Table22.3:NonviolentVideoGames
Table22:Theresultsofalinearregressionanalysis,witheachgamesmetascorebeingthepredictorvariable,and
thedependentvariablebeingtheunitssoldinAmericaaftersixweeks(Sig<.001).AonepointincreaseinagamesMetascore
predicts6986moresalesasof6weeksafterthegamesrelease.Tables22.122.3showstheresultsofthesametestonIV,MV,and
NVvideogamesseparately.Inallcases,thenullhypothesisisrejected
145
Figure9:DecompositionofAdditiveTimeSeriesonallViolentCrime
Figure10:DecompositionofAdditiveTimeSeriesonViolent
CrimeCommittedbyYoungMales
Figure9:showsthecompositionofadditivetimeseriesforallincidentsofviolentcrime.Thenumberofviolentcrimesvastly
decreasesafter2008,reachingthelowestpointin2009.Violentcrimefollowsaclearseasonalpattern,peakinginthesummer
months. Thelastpanelshowsallrandompartsroughlyfluctuatearound0,indicatingthedataisrandomlydistributedafterthe
seasonalpartsaredecomposedaway.
Figure10:Thesametimeseriesforviolentcrimescommittedbyyoungmales.Thepatternsarelargelysimilar,althoughinthis
seriesweseelessofanincreaseinthenumberofincidentsreportedafter2010.
146
Figure11:AverageUSsteamBandwidthbyTimeofDay
US Bandwidth Used
450.00
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
US Bandwidth Used
Figure11:TheaverageSteambandwidthbeingusedinAmericaeveryhouroftheday,forthefirstthreeweeksof
October2013.(excludingColumbusDay).Alldatagatheredasoutlinedinchapter4.1.2.TimezoneinUTC05:00
147
Table23:IncidentsofViolentCrimebyTimeofDay
NumberofviolentCrimes
12AM4AM
4AM8AM 8AM6PM 6PM12AM
Total
Sunday
43092
15837
46964
46518
152411
Monday
22852
12387
48566
49301
133106
Tuesday
23064
12467
48339
46993
130863
Wednesday
23178
12280
47696
47345
130499
Thursday
24088
12534
47400
46579
130601
Friday
26751
12949
49366
54149
143215
Saturday
42077
16327
48232
56108
162744
Table24:IncidentsofViolentCrimeCommittedbyYoungMalesGroupedbyTimeofDay
NumberofviolentCrimes
12AM4AM
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
4AM8AM
8AM6PM
6PM12AM
15550
3553
10300
13738
43141
6612
1663
10821
14736
33832
6486
1691
10407
13781
32365
6575
1678
10168
13722
32143
7046
1719
10082
13678
32525
8313
1971
10661
15986
36931
14860
3552
10359
16509
45280
Table25:TheAverageNumberofViolentCrimesCommittedinEachTimeGrouping.
148
Total
ViolentCrime(perday)
12AM4AM
4AM8AM
8AM6PM
6PM12AM
Total
Sunday
138
51
150
149
487
Monday
73
40
155
158
425
Tuesday
74
40
154
150
418
Wednesday
74
39
152
151
417
Thursday
77
40
151
149
417
Friday
85
41
158
173
458
Saturday
134
52
154
179
520
Agegroup(%)
<18
8.10
6.15
16.24
13.53
44.01
1829
7.48
1.83
8.96
11.81
30.08
>29
5.28
1.66
9.02
9.95
25.91
Female
3.20
1.00
6.58
6.26
17.03
Male
18.83
4.97
25.93
33.24
82.97
Gender(%)
149
Table26:TheEffectofVideoGameExposureonCrimeRates
Model1
Estimate
Model2
SE
Estimate
Model3
Model4
Model5
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
0.0106
0.0207
0.0112
0.0216
0.0111
0.0048
0.0
0.0397**
Nonviolent
0.0746
0.0134
0.0418**
Moderateviolent
0.0147
0.0106
0.0269**
0.0083
0.0074
0.0264*
0.0073
0.0157
0.0
0.005
0.0066
0.005
0.0054
0.0049
0.0009
0.0
0.0269**
Intenselyviolent
0.0258***
0.0064
Controlvariables
Yearindicator
Dayofweek
indicator
Monthindicator
Holidayindicator
WeatherorTV
audience
R2
0.3085
0.5786
0.751
0.7576
0.7711
2192
2192
2192
2192
2192
*Significantat5%.
***Significantat1%.
Table26:Theeffectsofhourlyvideogameexposureonhourlyviolentcrimerates.Methodologyasoutlinedin6.2.1.Onceafull
setofcontrolsareapplied,nostatisticallysignificantresultarefound.Therefore,thenullhypothesiscannotberejected.
150
Table27:TheEffectofVideoGameExposureonViolentCrimeRatesOnceTimeGroupingareaApplied
Table28:TheEffectofVideoGameExposureofViolentCrimeRatesofYoungMalesOnceTimeGroupingsareApplied
Table27displaystheresultsofthemultivariableregressionanalysisoncethetimegroupingsoutlinedin5.5areapplied.
Methodologyasoutlinedin6.2.1.Onceafullsetofcontrolsareadded,alltypesofvideogamesreduceviolentcrime,withall
resultsreachingstatisticalsignificance.Therefore,thenullhypothesesisrejected.
Table28displaystheresultsofthesametestforviolentcrimescommittedbyyoungmales.Itisworthnotingthattheindependent
variableistheaveragednumberofpeopleexposedtoeachtypeofvideogame,whichdoesnotdifferentiateforyoungmales.Here
alltypesofvideogamesreduceviolentcrime,yettheeffectofnonviolentvideogamesisfarweakeranddoesnotapproach
statisticalsignificance.Howeverforviolentvideogames,thenullhypothesisisrejected.
151
Table29:TheMediumRunEffectofVideoGameExposureonallViolentCrime
Table30:TheMediumRunEffectofVideoGameExposureonViolentCrimeCommittedbyYoungMales
Model1
Model2
Model3
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Nonviolent
0.096***
0.041
0.097*
0.041
0.1047*
0.041
Moderateviolent
0.2791***
0.0322
0.2793***
0.0322
0.2772***
0.0322
Intenselyviolent
0.1252***
0.0229
0.1265***
0.0229
0.1241***
0.0229
LaggedNonviolent
0.2484***
0.0386
0.2421***
0.0385
0.2393***
0.0385
0.26***
0.0309
0.2611***
0.0309
0.26***
0.0308
violent
0.2371***
0.0198
0.2398***
0.0197
0.2434***
0.0197
Lagspecification
Onetimeofdayafter
Twotimeofdayafter
Onedayafter
Fullsetofcontrol
LaggedModerate
violent
LaggedIntensely
***Significantat1%.
Table29:Theeffectofvideogameexposureonallviolentcrimeundervariouslagspecifications.Videogameexposurethatoccurs
duringthelagspecificationiscontrolledfor.Nonviolentvideogamesarefoundtoreduceviolentcrimeinthehoursfollowing
exposure,whereasintenselyviolentvideogameexposureincreasesviolentcrime,withboththesefindingsreachingstatistical
significance.
Table30:Theeffectofvideogameexposureonviolentcrimescommittedbyyoungmalesundervariouslagspecifications.Video
gameexposurethatoccursduringthelagspecificationiscontrolledfor.Nonviolentvideogamesdecreaseviolentcrimeinthe
mediumrun,whereasviolentvideogamesincreaseviolentcrimeinthehoursfollowingexposure.Alltheseresultsreachstatistical
significanceandthusthenullhypothesisisrejected.
152

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IDOLOVEVIDEOGAMES.

1 INTRODUCTION AND STUDY

Other Possible Results

The Psychological Literature

VGV and Aggression: A Tale of Two Camps:

Reaching a Consensus: Meta-Analytic Reviews, Reviewed

VGV and Violent Crime

The Three Major Studies:

Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?

Video Games and Crime

Understanding the Effect of Violent Video Games on Violent

Insights Gained from Review

A New Proxy for Video Game Exposure

Estimating Hourly Concurrent Users

Estimating hourly concurrent users of seven proxy Steam Games

Calculating the Percentage of These Users Located in the USA.

Calculating the Percentage of Owners who are Playing

Estimating Console Video Game Exposure at the National Level

Estimating Console Videogame Exposure at the State :evel

Socio-Economic Control variables

4 DATA GATHERING AND

Hourly Concurrent Users for the Seven Proxy Steam Games

Number of these Users Located in the US

Weekly Steam Sales

Calculating the Percentage of Owners Playing each of the

Matching with Steam Games via Genre

Grouping Violence Ratings

Percentage for Each State

Hourly Concurrent Players in the US

Hourly Concurrent Players in Each State

Socio Economic Control Variables

Population and Youth Population

Other Control Variables

Additive Time Series

Where t isanadditivelyseparableerrorterm.Thecoefficient 3 canbe

Short Run Effects

Medium Run Effects

: VGV is Related to Violent Crime

The effect is Most Significant for Young Males

The Catharsis Hypothesis is Rejected

The Data Supports the Voluntary Incapacitation

This Data also Provides Evidence in Favour of GAM

Comparison with Previous Research

New Insights Developed

New Evidence Linking VGV to Real Life Serious Acts of Aggression.

The Catharsis Hypothesis has Been Disproven

4AM8AM 8AM6PM 6PM12AM

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