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BlueprintsforTamingtheClimateCrisisTheNewYorkTimes

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ECONOMY

BlueprintsforTamingtheClimateCrisis
JULY8,2014

EduardoPorter
ECONOMICSCENE

Hereswhatyourfuturewilllooklikeifwearetohaveashotatpreventing
devastatingclimatechange.
Withinabout15yearseverynewcarsoldintheUnitedStateswillbe
electric.Infact,bymidcenturymorethanhalfoftheAmericaneconomy
willrunonelectricity.Upto60percentofpowermightcomefromnuclear
sources.Andcoalsfootprintwillshrinkdrastically,perhapsevendisappear
fromthepowersupply.
Thiscourse,createdbyateamofenergyexperts,wasunveiledon
TuesdayinareportfortheUnitedNationsthatexploresthetechnological
pathsavailablefortheworlds15maineconomiestobothmaintain
reasonableratesofgrowthandcuttheircarbonemissionsenoughby2050
topreventclimatichavoc.
Itoffersasoberingconclusion.Wemightbeabletopullitoff.Butit
willtakeanoverhaulofthewayweuseenergy,andahugeinvestmentin
thedevelopmentanddeploymentofnewenergytechnologies.Significantly,
itcallsforanentirelydifferentapproachtointernationaldiplomacyonthe
issueofhowtocombatclimatechange.
Thiswillrequireaheroiccooperativeeffort,saidJeffreyD.Sachs,the

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ColumbiaUniversityeconomistwhodirectstheSustainableDevelopment
SolutionsNetworkattheUnitedNations,whichconvenedthe
multinationalteams.
Theteams,oneineachofthe15countries,lookedatwhatwouldbe
necessarytokeeptheatmospherefromwarmingmorethan2degrees
Celsius,3.6degreesFahrenheit,abovethepreindustrialaverageofthelate
19thcentury,atargetthatmostoftheworldcommittedtoattheclimate
summitmeetinginCopenhagenfiveyearsago.Todoso,CO2emissions
fromindustryandenergyusewouldhavetofalltoatmost1.6tonsayear
foreverypersonontheplanetbymidcentury.
ThatislessthanatenthofannualAmericanemissionsperperson
todayandlessthanathirdoftheworldaverage.Andwehaventquite
figuredouthowtogetfromheretothere.
TheAmericanteambuiltseveralpathsthatwouldhitthetarget,using
differentmixesofnuclearpower,renewableenergyandfossilfuelswith
carboncaptureandstoragetechnology.SodidtheRussianteam,aidedby
theexpectedshrinkingoftheRussianpopulation.
ButtheChineseteamwasstymiedbythecountrysvastheavyindustry
itssteelmakersandcementplants,whichuseenormousamountsof
energy.ThebestitcoulddowaschartapaththattookCO2emissionsto
some3.4tonsperpersonbymidcentury.Wehaveshippedalotofindustry
toChina,Mr.Sachssaid.Industryishardtodecarbonize.
Overall,theteamsbuiltplausibletechnologicalpathstocutannual
emissionsacrossthe15countriesonlytoabout2.3tonsperperson.
Theanalysis,however,offerssolidgroundforhope.Theteamsexpect
toimproveonthesepathsincomingmonths.Fasterdeploymentofsome
technologiesthanassumedcouldprovidefordeeperdecarbonizationin
severalcountries.Whatsmore,likelychangesineconomicstructurein
comingdecadessuchasChinasexpectedshiftawayfromheavyindustry
couldfurthershrinkthecarbonfootprint.

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Mostimportant,theassessmentoffersanopportunitytoenddecades
ofinconsequentialhorsetradingoverclimatechangeandtostart
addressingtheproblemforreal.
Fiveyearssincepoliticalleadersfromcountriesaroundtheworld
committedtodowhateverittooktokeepglobaltemperaturesfromrising
morethantwodegreesabovethepreindustrialaverage,noonehadtaken
thetrouble,untilnow,toevaluatehowthatmightbeachieved.
Lackinganyunderstandingofthefeasibilityoftheexercise,
governmentsposturedandjockeyedoverwhichcountryshouldbe
responsibleforwhat,offeringaslittleastheycouldgetawaywithinactual
reductionsingreenhousegasemissions,whetherthecollectiveeffortmet
thetwodegreecommitmentornot.
Ifgovernmentsdonthaveanyideaofwhattwodegreesmeansin
theircountries,howcantheycommittotwodegrees?askedGuido
SchmidtTraub,executivedirectoroftheSustainableDevelopment
Network.
ThereportcommissionedbytheUnitedNationscouldendthe
jockeying:tosticktothetwodegreelimiteverycountry,richandpoor,
mustreduceannualCO2emissionsto1.6tonsperperson,whetheritis
responsibleforalotoralittleoftheclimatechangesofar.
Thisisdictatednotbyfairness,butbyourtechnologicalfrontier.There
iswiggleroomfornegotiation.Chinasemissionsfrommanufacturing
wouldlooksmalleriftheywereallocatedtoconsumingratherthan
producingcountries.Still,weknowofnofeasibletechnologythatwould
allow,say,theUnitedStatestohavenegativeemissionsin2050soIndiaor
Chinacouldemitmore.
Thenewassessmentalsounderscoresthepointlessnessofsmall,
incrementalemissionscuts.Underthepath,theUnitedStatesdecarbonizes
itsenergysupplyatanaveragepaceofalmost4percentayearoverthenext
fourdecades.Thatismorethan10timesfasterthantheEnergy

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InformationAdministrationsforecastlastyear.ChinatakesCO2outofits
energyaboutsixtimesasfastastheE.I.A.sforecast.
Thisisnotachievablebygoingafterlowhangingfruit,suchas
replacingcoalwithnaturalgasinpowerplants.Doingsocouldevenbe
counterproductive,lockingthecountrysenergyinfrastructureintoahigh
carbonpath.
Mostimportant,perhaps,thenewassessmentsuggeststhatdeep
decarbonizationcanbedonewithoutbreakinganyeconomy.Chinese
incomes,forinstance,areassumedtogrowabout4.6percentayearuntil
midcentury.
Thedecarbonizationpathsrelyonaggressiveassumptionsaboutour
abilitytodeploynewtechnologiesonacommercialscaleeconomically.For
instance,carboncaptureandstorageissupposedtobeavailablestartingin
about10years.Secondgenerationbiofuelsareassumedtocomeintoplay
by2020.Hydrogenfuelcellsandpowerstoragetechnologyaredeployed
startingaround2030.
Butthesetechnologiesallexisttodayandseemreasonablyscalable.
Theteamsdidnotrelyonmorespeculativetechnologies,likecoldfusion,to
maketheirnumbers.
ThenewapproachwhichtheUnitedNationshopeswillinformthe
debateuptothenextclimatesummitinParisinfall2015couldoffera
pathoutofthestalematethatinternationalclimatenegotiationshave
become.
NocountrywillcommitlegallytoslashitsCO2emissionsby80
percentoverthenext40years.Butifthereisamap,manymightoffertheir
bestefforttofollowit.Absentalegalcommitment,alongtermpathcould
encouragethelargeinvestmentsultimatelyrequiredtoaddressthe
problem.
Governmentswontprecommittohugetechnologicalrevolutionsona

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legalbasis,ProfessorSachssaid.Countriesmightbewillingtoaspire
moreonaconditionalbasis.
Whatsmore,countriesaremorelikelytoparticipateifthey
understandwhateverybodyelseistrying.TheChinesewanttoseean
Americanpathwaytotwodegrees,Mr.SchmidtTraubsaid.
Bigchallengesremain.Any40yearforecastmustbetakenwithsome
skepticism.Technologiesthatseemfeasibleandeconomictodaymightturn
outnottobe.Anditbearsrepeatingthatthoughtheteamscontendthey
cangetto1.6tonsperperson,theyhavenotyet.
Russia,forinstance,hitthetarget.ButOlegLugovoyofthe
EnvironmentalDefenseFund,whoworkedontheRussianplan,observed
thatifwedonthavecarboncaptureandstoragewewouldhaveto
reconsider.
Andwhilesketchingatechnologicalpathtowardalowcarbon
economywillcertainlyhelpgroundinrealitytheabstractnegotiationsover
thefutureofclimate,itdoesnotdoawaywiththemainhitchthathas
stumpedprogressfordecades:Howmuchwillthisallcostandwhowillpay
forit?
Theteampurposefullydidnotassessthecostsoftheirpathstoprevent
distributionalargumentsfromflaringupimmediately.Thatgivespolicy
makersspacetoconsidertheimplicationswithouthavingtostakeouta
negotiatingstance.
Anassessmentofcostsandhowtheycouldbedistributedwillbeadded
inanextiterationtobepublishednextspring.Debatesovercostallocation
andtechnologytransfercouldstillhamstringprospectsofsubstantive
internationalcollaboration.
Butdespitetheserisks,thereportoffersapromisingnewpathto
overcomethedecadesoldlogjamofclimatechangenegotiations.Forthe
firsttime,whenwesaywecanstoptheclimatefromheatingwewillmore
orlessknowwhatwearetalkingabout.

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Email:eporter@nytimes.com
Twitter:@portereduardo
AversionofthisarticleappearsinprintonJuly9,2014,onpageB1oftheNewYorkedition
withtheheadline:BlueprintsforTamingtheClimateCrisis.

2015TheNewYorkTimesCompany

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