Post-election colours, prospects and

casualties
by Rajan Philips-August 22, 2015

Sri Lankas
electoral map the morning after its 16th
general election was a fascinating
picture of political colours. The middle of
the island was all (UNP) green,
spreading from west to east and covering the hill country and most of the
countrys wet zone. The southern base and much of the dry zone was shot
in (SLFP) blue. The north stood out in (TNA) yellow. This broad brush
display of colours obviously concealed the many local variations of political
loyalties and conflicts. At the all island aggregate level, the regional
variations in electoral support translated into 5 million votes and 106 seats
for the UNP-led alliance (UNFGG), 4.7 million votes and 95 seats for the
UPFA, and just over half a million votes and 16 seats for the TNA. The only
missing colour and the surprising result came at the expense of the JVP
which polled 543,944 votes and obtained six seats, much lower than many
observers were expecting. Otherwise, the results were as expected. The
UNP alliance has won a substantial victory and the UPFAs hijacking mission
to bring back Mahinda has suffered a serious defeat. In the north, the
Tamil voters have mightily (65% to 75% voter support in every riding)
endorsed the TNAs pragmatism and swept aside the messianic idiocy of a
maverick Chief Minister and the provocative agency of third generation
Tamil Congress.
One week after the peoples vote, there is already maneuvering across
political boundaries as the newly elected MPs and their organizations try to
come to terms with the verdict that the people have delivered. The UNP
and its allies, the TNA, and even the JVP despite its disappointments, have
their MPs in a remarkably stable state of mind without having to worry too
much about internal rivalries or external alliances. Not so with the SLFP
and the UPFA, which are certainly in a state of confusion, more so after the
elections than they were before.

We saw Mahinda Rajapaksa attending the ceremonial swearing in of Ranil

Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister, while avoiding the meeting of the SLFP
MPs convened by President Maithripala Sirisena. Mr. Rajapaksa, however,
attended a convening of what is left of the UPFA at Prasanna Ranatungas
house. Almost all elected SLFP MPs attended the meeting convened by the
President including those who have been expelled from their positions in
the Party. While Mahinda Rajapaksa shied away from the first post-election
meeting of his lifelong Party, the SLFPs other former President and truer
pedigree, Chandrika Kumaratunga (nee Bandaranaike), attended the SLFP
meeting, apparently after a long absence, and was given a standing
ovation. Among those who stood to applaud were MPs who just a week
earlier had sat in front of microphones at pro-Rajapaksa press-briefings
and dismissed Chandrika Kumaratunga as a political spent force.
As the August campaign dust settles down (there wasnt too much of the
customary dust anyway and most of it was kicked up by President Sirisena
at the expense of Mahinda Rajapaksa and his UPFA cronies) the
emerging post-election scenarios involve the following: President Sirisena
taking control of the SLFP and further pushing Mahinda Rajapaksa and the
UPFA to the wall; the revamping of the not so old Wickremesinghe-Sirisena
government as the new UNP-SLFP national government to deliver on the
yet unfulfilled January mandate; and a new focus on the political situation
involving the Tamil speaking people.
President Sirisena will be busy on double duty as the countrys Executive
President and as the Leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. Ranil
Wickremesinghe has become Prime Minister for the fourth time under the
1978 Constitution. But unlike in his previous stints, he has taken office
with a strong mandate from the people, as the parliamentary head of a
national government, and in a new constitutional arrangement for sharing
the executive powers with the elected President. The President and the
Prime Minister will also have to strike a new arrangement with the TNA to
address the postwar problems that are specific to the North and East and
use that as a basis for working towards a level of political unity that
corresponds to the social and cultural similarities among the islands
different ethnic groups. But the future is still in the clouds and the ground
realities pose different challenges.
The Casualties
Sri Lankas ground realities have been fundamentally reoriented following

the political changes that began with the January presidential election. One
Sunday last November I sarcastically wrote that the Rajapaksas, then
riding high and certain of a third term victory, might as well take a 99-year
lease on the whole country just as they were giving the Chinese a lease on
an engineered piece of off-shore real estate fancifully called the Port City.
Within a week of my writing, and having nothing at all to do with my
sarcasm, the Rajapaksa universe began to unravel with the defection of
Maithripala Sirisena from the UPFA government and his becoming the
common opposition candidate to challenge the incumbent President.
Sirisena went on to win the election in January and put an end to what
would otherwise have become a constitutional dictatorship. Significantly,
Mr. Sirisena left the UPFA government but did not technically leave or was
removed from the SLFP. In terms of the SLFPs constitution President
Sirisena became the leader of the SLFP with Mahinda Rajapaksa literally
ushering the new President to his old Chair. The transition looked too
smooth to be real, but in fact it was real without any sinister scheming
mistakenly attributed to the former President.
The sinister scheming came later when the UPFA appendages of the SLFP
started the Bring Back Mahinda (BBM) campaign. The campaign was
given momentum by the political forces and vested interests who wanted
the return of Mahinda Rajapaksa, for without him they would respectively
have no future either in their perks-filled politics or in their rent-rotten
businesses. The campaign succeeded and even hijacked President
Sirisenas hand in securing nomination for Mahinda Rajapaksa to run for
parliament as a UPFA/SLFP candidate in the Kurunegala District and to
potentially become the new Prime Minister. Facing a storm of criticism for
granting nomination to Rajapaksa and betraying his own January mandate,
the president started calling the Rajapaksa bluff by insisting that he will
not appoint Rajapaksa as Prime Minister even if the UPFA were to win a
majority of seats in the new parliament. In well calculated moves right up
to the last day of the campaign, Sirisena began to take control of the SLFP
and assert its primacy within the UPFA. In a way, he made the fight for the
SLFP an issue at Mondays election.
From the Presidents standpoint, Mondays verdict was a serious defeat for
the (BBM) campaign. Objectively, at the same time, it was by no means a
rout. Mahinda was certainly not mauled as one newspaper said in banner
headlines, sacrificing accuracy for alliteration. In the 20 districts outside
the North and East, the UPFA won more seats than the UNP 74 to 69 based on the electoral divisions of the old First-past-the-post system, and
which are still the basic units for counting purposes. So there was no rout

of the UPFA in 2015 that is comparable to earlier historic routs the UNP
in 1956 and 1970 and the SLFP in 1977. But that does not take away from
the significance of the setback to the forces behind the BBM campaign. In
fact, the setback is permanent. The people have now twice rejected the
former President who amended the constitution to avail himself of
unlimited terms in office. He cannot run again for President, and
continuing as an opposition MP, or even Leader of the Opposition, may
disable him from enjoying the perks of presidential retirement. There are
also other surprises.
Even Post-election, President Sirisena seems to be having more trumps to
play than anyone could have foreseen. While there was high handed
forensic lampooning of the President over his firing of the twin-secretaries
of the SLFP-UPFA and appointing non-Rajapaksa loyalists in place, and
high noon court fights were being talked about, President Sirisena has
effectively scuppered the UPFA by drawing the SLFP out of the UPFA and
entering into a Memorandum of Understanding with the UNP to form a
national government, initially for two years with possibility of extending
the agreement. More dramatically all the UPFA national list appendages
who have been having a free ride to parliament for nearly twenty years,
have now been taken off the new UPFA national list. The parliament will be
a better place without them.
Where will all this leave Mahinda Rajapaksa? Is the office of the Leader of
the Opposition there for his taking, or will he be denied that too? In the
rapidly changing political landscape, it really doesnt matter politically
where Mahinda Rajapaksa is, or he is going to be. But from his personal
standpoint, it might matter a great deal where he is, or will be, politically,
considering the suite of investigations involving his presidency and those
who were close to it, that will be given a new impetus after the election.
Even now the former President could retire into the southern sunset,
politically speaking, after his impressive showing in the Kurunegala
District. The real losers are the UPFA appendages of the SLFP, whose bring
back Mahinda campaign has now boomeranged on them. They would be
even more lost without the support of the SLFP and without Mahinda
Rajapaksa to hang onto. In the end the people have won, again.
Posted by Thavam