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5
Panja
6
Chakka
7
Teeya
Thada
Name
14
Chakka
15
Teeya
16
Chauka
9
Panja
10
Chakka
11
Teeya
12
Chauka
13
Panja
8
Chauka
Example: In a throw if the number of 'Thada' is 11 then we say that 'Teeya' has occurred.
Rules and strategy: This game may be played between any number of players, negotiating the rules and
strategy, however, two types of strategies are commonly seen.
Strategy 1: In this strategy of the game, a player throws the set of 16 Kaudas; he/she has his/her particular
combination fixed in advance. Other players bet on seeing different combinations, not taken by the thrower.
For example, if the player taking 'Teeya' is throwing, players can bet on seeing the other three combinations.
After the kauda is thrown, the resulting combination is noted. If this combination happens to be the one
belonging to the thrower, the thrower wins the entire amount staked at other combinations. If this
combination is other than the one belonging to the thrower, the thrower has to pay the amount bet on the
seen combination.
For example, A takes 'Chauka' and throws, 'B' bets Rs. 100 on seeing 'Panja', 'C' bets Rs. 300 on seeing
'Chakka', and 'D' bets Rs. 200 on 'Teeya'.
If 'Chauka' turns, 'A' wins all Rs. 600 bet. But if 'Teeya' turns, he would have to pay Rs.200 to 'D' , then the
throwing turn goes to 'D' and game continues.
Another Variation (Strategy 2): In another strategy, the thrower
complementary combination i.e. Chauka Vs. Chakka, Teeya vs. Panja.
throwing with Chauka, he/she may accept only the bet on Chakka. In
he/she would have zero payoff., but the throwing turn goes to the player
ANALYSIS
OF
PROBABILITIES:
Assumptions: Suppose that each piece of 'kauda' is unbiased one, that is probability of getting 'Thada' and
'Ghopte' are equal to 0.5. Note that, in reality this may not be true, the probabilities of showing Thada or
Ghopte by each Kauda may be different. Such probabilities may be assigned by 'relative frequency approach',
that is throwing each kauda large number of times and noting the number of times 'Thada' or 'Ghopte' turned.
However, study of varying probabilities is beyond the scope of this study.
Also, we assume that the kauda are thoroughly mixed and no personal skills, whatsoever are associated with
'Kauda throwing'.
Now we shall use the theory of Binomial Distribution to analyze the probabilities of this game.
Let X= number of 'Thada' in a throw (x=0, 1, 2, 3, ..16). Then it is obvious that X~B(16, 0.5), as such we
have,
P(X=r) =16Cr pr(1-p)16-r = 16Cr (0.5)r(0.5)16-r = = 16Cr (0.5)16 == 16Cr (.0000152587890625)
r=0, 1,2, 3, 4.16
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P(X=r)
r
1.52588E-05
9
0.000244141
10
0.001831055
11
0.008544922
12
0.027770996
13
0.066650391
14
0.122192383
15
0.174560547
16
0.196380615
Total
Var(X)=npq=16x0.5x0.5=4
Cr
11440
8008
4368
1820
560
120
16
1
65536
SD(X)=2
16
P(X=r)
0.174560547
0.122192383
0.066650391
0.027770996
0.008544922
0.001831055
0.000244141
1.52588E-05
1
Adding the corresponding probabilities, using the table 1 and table 2, we get the number of
ways and the probabilities of seeing different Combination is as follows.
Table 3: Number of Ways and Probabilities of seeing different combinations.
Number
of
Combination
Ways
Probability
Teeya
16384
0.25
Chauka
16512
0.2519531
Panja
16384
0.25
Chakka
16256
0.2480469
Total
65536
1
Monetary Values Associated in Different Strategies:
The Monetary value of a particular outcome for the player, who is throwing the Kauda is the
amount accumulated (profit) by the player if that particular outcome is observed. It is obvious
that the negative monetary value is loss.
The Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is the weighted arithmetic mean of Monetary Values,
weights being the corresponding probabilities. Symbolically,
EMV=(Monetary Value X Probability)
Strategy 1 with 'Chauka'
Suppose 'A' throws with taking 'Chauka' and the bet at different combination is as follows:
Chakka-Rs. 100;Panja-Rs.100;Teeya- Rs. 100
Table 4: Monetary Values Associated
Outcome Probability Monetary
Probability*Monetary
Value
value
Teeya
0.25
-100
-25
Chauka
0.2519531 300
75.6
Panja
0.25
-100
-25
Chakka
0.2480469 -100
-24.8
Total
1
EMV=0.8
The above table shows that with the given amounts as bet the thrower is expected to win Rs.
0.8 in that game
Page 2 of 4
Panja
Chakka
0
0
-0.8
-0.4
EMV
Strategy 1
Strategy 2
0
0
0.8
0.4
Using same arguments, one may calculate the EMV for different amounts of bet.
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