Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Dr George Mermiris
Research Fellow
Presentation layout
Need
R&D
management
Thematic
area
Product
development
Opportunity
Research
Market needs
Hypothesis question
Market needs
Example 1 Energy efficiency & environmental performance
Energy
efficiency
Environmental
performance
Market needs
Example 2 Fishing vessel safety
15-24m 71
fatalities, 28%
Over 24m 77
fatalities, 30%
12-15m 3 fatalities,
1%
Market needs
Example 3 Safety
Safety--critical ships / floating platforms
FPSO
Arctic shipping
Market needs
Example 4 Systems availability
Performance standards for the systems and services to remain
operational on passenger ships for safe return to port and
orderly evacuation and abandonment after a casualty
MSC.1/Circ.1214
Market needs
Example 5 Databases and knowledge
knowledge--intensive models
The process of discovering meaningful correlations,
patterns, and trends by sifting through stored data,
using pattern recognition technologies, and statistical
and mathematical techniques
Interpretation/
Evaluation
Data Mining
Preprocessing
Patterns
Selection
Preprocessed
Data
Data
Marine
Accident / incident
Database
Target
Data
Bayesian Network
Thematic area
Safety
Shipping
escalation in size
specialisation
higher speed
construction materials
over-capacity
greater complexity
more information
less time
competition
manning
ageing fleet
Science &
Technology
phenomenal progress
rapid technological change
better technical capabilities
innovation potential
cost-effective safety
Society
public expectation
for higher safety
increased public
regard for human
life and environment
media coverage
political pressures
Thematic area
Opportunity
Opportunity
Resources
Funding
Human resources
Opportunity
Funding
National
International
Internal
Combination
General aspects
- 100% funding of activities is rare: some contribution is expected from companies
- Tenders are expected from consortia
- The calls for research funding often represent the current trends in the market
- The bids should draw on the current trends and address the call text
- Various kinds of limitations apply (max funding, max number of partners, etc.)
Opportunity
Human resources
Education
Experience
Availability
Interest
Commitment
Research
Philosophical
background /
school of
thought
Overarching
methodological
approaches
Product
-Mathematical modelling
- Optimisation
- Sensitivity analysis
- Uncertainty analysis
Etc.
Research
Design for
Safety
(Philosophy)
Risk-based
Design
(Methodology)
Ship Design
-Mathematical modelling
- Optimisation
- Sensitivity analysis
- Uncertainty analysis
Etc.
Product development
Example 1 Energy efficiency & environmental performance
Energy
efficiency
Environmental
performance
Product development
Example 2 Fishing vessel safety
Dynamic stability analyses
Quatering Seas
10
9
100% Capsize
Hs (m)
7
6
Fuzzy area
5
4
3
2
100% Safe
1
0
0
6
Speed (kn)
10
12
Product development
Example 3 Safety
Safety--critical ships / floating platforms
Decision-support system
Product development
Example 4 Systems availability
Collision Scenarios
Propulsion
OPERABLE in
335 / 350
cases [96%]
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
NOT OPERABLE
in 15 / 350 cases
[4%]
10
0
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
location of damage, Xd(m)
50
100
150
200
Product development
Example 5 Databases and knowledge
knowledge--intensive models
Data mining application for fire risk assessment
Marine Accident / incident
Database
Category 6
(small space)
Category 8
(large space)
Category 12
(E/R)
R&D Management
R&D is not one-off activity
Summary
Need
R&D
management
Thematic
area
Product
development
Opportunity
Research
Case study
Market needs
Capacity / complexity
2009
1990
1970
1950
Time
Market needs
Market needs
SOLAS framework for Fire (Ch.II-2)
Heavily based on past experience
Prescriptive in nature
Emphasis on mitigation (revision after major
accident)
Focus on the end result (vulnerability analysis)
Difficulty to cater for new / innovative layouts
and operational profiles
Thematic Area
fi = i Ai
Probability
of ignition
for each
SOLAS
space
Loss Scenario:
Probability
of first aid
failure due
to ignition
fire
Probability of fire
growth due to first aid
failure and ignition for
various fire loads,
opening conditions, etc.
HRR kW
Probability
of escalation
2000
1500
1000
500
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
time s
...
Pign Pfaf/ign Pgrowth | faf & ign Pescalation | growth ... Closs of life = Rfire
Evacuation
to adjacent
zones
subject to
reduced
visibility
and fire
effluents.
Opportunity
In the course of SAFEDOR (www.safedor.org)
the idea emerged that a project on the
development of a framework for fire safety
should be pursued.
Research
R=PC
nhz
Research
Frequency analysis (historical data)
frhz ( hz 2 )
collision
FSA Cruise
Ships
(SAFEDOR,
FSA, 2007):
1 event every
109 ship years
frhz (hz1 )
fire
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
Research
Consequences
FIREPROOF
database
Data Mining
Bayesian
Networks
Event Trees
Research
Consequences
HRR kW
2000
1500
1000
500
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
time s
Research
Consequences
Evacuation simulation
Research
Consequences
Risk Envelope Fitted to Available Scenarios
Idealised Risk Envelope
Unknown True Risk Envelope
Available data and past accidents
Consequence, C
Area = Risk = P x C
Probability, P
Research
Consequences
Ship Product
Model (SPM)
.spiral
A fire protection =
w
i
ij
p j s ij
A=
- N: number of MVZ
- M: number of spaces per zone
- pj: Probability of fire ignition in a
single space j
-sij: Probability of fire protection in
space j of MVZ i
- wij: weighting factors for space
location (origin, adjacent space or
above), escape and escalation
properties, etc.
w
j=1
. p i .s ji
i =1
A>R
Product development
Space
dRiski = fi P(E) i Ni
1. Methodology
Frequency of
Occurrence
Severity of
Consequences
Statistics
Influencing factors
Quantitative
analysis of fire
simulation &
passenger
evacuation
Probability of Escalation
P(E)
and impact on human
life Ni
- Space use
- Floor area
SOLAS
- Part B (prevention, fire
growth)
Space
(i)
SOLAS
- Part B (fire growth,
smoke generation potential)
- Part C (suppression of fire)
- Part D (means of escape)
Product development
2. Fire and Smoke propagation coupled with evacuation simulation
Fatalities
EX IT
EX IT
F ire ro om
Smoke propagation
Fire simulation
integrated with
evacuation models
to get fatalities
R&D Management
SAFEDOR
FIREPROOF
New project:
coupling of fire /
evacuation with
human behaviour
www.fireproof-project.eu
Course structure
Need
Day 3
R&D
management
Product
development
Day 2
Research
Day 1
Thematic
area
Opportunity
Day 3: Workshop