Académique Documents
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RETAIL RESEARCH
Equity Markets
Weekly Statistics
Key Indices
Key benchmark indices registered modest gains in what was a volatile trading week. The market
sentiment was upbeat as retirement fund manager Employees Provident Fund Organization (EPFO)
entered the stock market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) route from Thursday, 6 August 2015, four
months after it decided to invest in equities. The gains were, however, capped by India's weather office
predicting below normal rains during the second half of southwest monsoon season (August to
September), with a probability of 86%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark
lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.25% after a monetary policy review on Tuesday, 4 August
2015.
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.43% to settle at 28,236.39 last week. The 50-unit CNX Nifty rose 0.37% to
settle at 8,564.60. Broader market depicted strength. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.52% to settle at
11,557.52. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 2.31% to settle at 12,104.47. Both these indices outperformed
the Sensex.
07-August
% Chg
Sensex
28236
+0.43
Nifty
8565
+0.37
DJIA
17373
-1.79
Nasdaq
5044
-1.65
FTSE
6719
+0.33
DAX
11491
+1.61
Hang Seng
24552
-0.34
Nikkei
20725
+0.68
Bovespa
48577
-4.50
Indonesia Jakarta
4770
-0.67
Singapore Strait
3197
-0.18
885
-1.84
MSCI World
1747
-1.03
The last batch of Q1 June 2015 corporate earnings, macroeconomic data, progress of monsoon rains,
developments during the monsoon session of parliament, trend in global markets, investment by foreign
portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will
dictate trend on the bourses in the coming week. The Q1 June 2015 corporate earnings season concludes
next week.
Among key macroeconomic announcements, the government is scheduled to unveil the consumer price
index (CPI) data for the month of July 2015 and industrial production data for June 2015 on Wednesday,
12 July 2015. The government will release data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for
July 2015 on Friday, 14 August 2015.
Global Markets
U.S. stocks fell, leaving indexes with the biggest weekly losses in months. Over the past week, investors
sold
stocks
as
disappointing
earnings
results
from
companies
such
as
Apple
Inc. AAPL, +0.34% Caterpillar CAT, -0.22% and IBMIBM, -0.77% as well as a dramatic selloff in
commodities, brought back concerns over slowing growth in the global economy.
The S&P 500 closed, lower at 2,079.65, booking a 2.2% weekly loss. The weekly decline for the benchmark
was the steepest since March. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1%, to 5,044, ending the week with a
1.65% weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, to 17,568.53 weekly loss.
Category Name
1 Week
Absolute
1 Month
Absolute
3 Months
Absolute
6 Months
Absolute
1 Year
CAGR
3 Years
CAGR
Arbitrage Funds
0.12
0.48
1.67
3.93
7.95
8.47
Balanced - Debt
0.18
1.01
3.30
2.67
12.76
13.21
Balanced - Equity
0.91
2.09
7.10
3.80
20.22
20.67
Equity - Banking
0.85
1.03
10.27
1.42
26.75
20.77
1.20
3.47
9.94
5.33
23.96
22.23
Equity - Infras
1.38
2.79
11.17
6.64
21.73
19.98
Equity - LARGE
1.19
2.60
9.83
3.96
22.45
21.50
Equity - MID
1.53
5.00
14.72
11.68
38.49
34.06
Equity - MULTI
1.28
3.10
10.58
5.67
25.86
24.13
Equity - SMALL
2.02
5.44
14.71
10.78
37.89
33.07
Equity - FMCG
0.35
3.30
8.76
2.79
25.19
20.25
Equity - Infotech
0.53
5.57
8.34
-1.45
17.04
27.61
Equity - Pharma
2.61
3.58
10.99
16.64
45.64
34.45
ELSS
1.42
2.99
10.61
5.36
25.26
24.63
Gold ETFs
0.60
-5.89
-8.11
-11.25
-13.65
-7.16
Gilt Funds
0.10
0.56
1.50
1.30
12.57
8.94
Income Funds
0.11
0.70
1.87
2.52
10.58
8.66
Liquid Funds
0.14
0.63
1.93
3.96
8.21
8.47
MIP
0.37
1.08
3.30
3.10
12.50
10.61
0.13
0.78
2.26
3.94
9.67
9.00
Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on Aug 07, 2015.
RETAIL RESEARCH
G sec Markets
Indian bond yields ended almost flat during the week ended August 07, 2015.
The G sec market open on Monday on firm note tracking decline in crude oil prices and US treasury yields.
Expectation of favorable guidance from the RBI at its policy review on August 4 also provided bonds
support. However, IMDs monsoon forecast checked the bond prices. The weather research agency said
the Aug-Sep rainfall was seen at 84% of the long period average and that there was 72% probability of El
Nino conditions becoming strong during the period.
Prices of the Government bonds ended slightly lower on Tuesday as sentiment for dated securities was
dented slightly by the RBIs monetary policy announcement, in which the banking regulator decided to
keep interest rates on hold.
The key policy rate (repo) kept unchanged at 7.25%. The central bank indicated that future rate actions
would be dependent on fuller policy transmission by banks development in food prices and their
management, supply side measures, and normalisation of policy in the US. The RBI said that the banks
have passed on an average 0.3% interest rate cut as against RBI's 0.75% rate cut since January and
worried about the new investment demand emanating from private sector and government remains
subdued.
Liquidity:
Prices of the Government bonds ended steady on Wednesday due to range-bound activity and a lack of
firm buying interest in the market. G sec market ended higher on Thursday tracking fall in crude oil prices.
However, concerns over weekly bond auction checked the bond prices.
G sec prices ended marginally lower on Friday as the market witnessed range-bound activity ahead of
fresh cues awaited from the release of U.S non-farm pay roll data.
Hence, the yields of the new 10-Year benchmark 7.72% GS 2025 closed flat at 7.81% (Rs. 99.39) on Friday
against the last week close of 7.81%.
Debt Securities Benchmarks watch
RETAIL RESEARCH
Debt (%)
07-Aug
31-July
Change (bps)
Call Rate
7.25
7.09
+16
CBLO
5.50
7.05
-155
Repo
7.25
7.25
Reverse Repo
6.25
6.25
10 Year G sec
7.81
7.81
LIBOR UK
0.58
0.58
LIBOR USA
0.30
0.30
LIBOR Europe
-0.02
-0.02
T Bill
The 91-Days T-Bill auction worth Rs 8,000 crore was fully subscribed (7.44% of cut off yield). The 364-Days
T-Bill auction worth Rs 6,000 crore was also fully subscribed (7.58% of cut off yield). The RBI announced
91 Day T-bill auction and 364 Day T-bill auction for notified amount of Rs 8,000 and Rs 6,000 Cr
respectively to be held on 12-Aug-15.
Corporate Debts
The 10 year AAA bond ended at 8.43% compared to 8.41% in previous week. The 1 year AAA bond yield
was seen trading at 8.17% compared to 8.12% in the previous week.
Currency
The USD appreciated against the Euro by 0.55% for week ended 07th August, 2015.
The dollar appreciated against the yen by 0.68% for the week.
The USD appreciated against the pound by 0.70% for the week.
RETAIL RESEARCH
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
10 Year
31-July
46
26
43
48
38
17
40
45
Date of Auction
12-Aug-15
12-Aug-15
8,000
6,000
Forthcoming Auctions;
Security
91 D T Bill
182 D T Bill
Certificates of Deposits:
Maturity
07-Aug
31-July
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
7.45
7.70
7.95
7.55
7.75
7.95
Commercial Papers:
Maturity
07-Aug
31-July
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
7.80
8.20
8.60
7.70
8.00
8.45
Commodity Update:
Commodity
07-Aug
31-July
Change (%)
43.87
1094.10
47.12
1094.90
-2.12
+0.86
MF Scheme Analysis
F und O bje c t iv e / M is s io n
To generate lo ng-term capital gro wth fro m a po rtfo lio o f equity and
equity-related securities including equity derivatives. The po rtfo lio will
largely co sist o f co mpanies, which are amo ngst the to p 200 co mpanies
by market capitalisatio n. The po rtfo lio will limit expo sure to co mpanies
beyo nd the to p 200 co mpanies by market capitalizatio n upto 20% o f the
net asset value. The Scheme will no rmally ho ld equity and equity-related
securities including equity derivatives, o f upto 25 co mpanies.
Open Ended
La unc h D a t e
23-A pr-2010
T o t a l S e c t o rs :
F und M a na ge r
B e nc hM a rk
P / E R a t io :
S&P B SE Sensex
P / B R a t io :
NA
M a x.E xit Lo a d ( %)
25
16
29.69
14.47
A v g. M a rk e t C a p ( R s . c r)
104317
O n ( 0 6 - A ug- 2 0 15 )
5 - Y e a rs H is t o ry
F ina nc ia l Y e a r
2 0 14 - 2 0 15
2 0 13 - 2 0 14
17.73
www.dspblackro ck.co m
We bs it e :
Harish Zaveri
M a x.E nt ry Lo a d ( %)
F und H o us e D e t a ils
A M C N ame:
A ddre s s :
S c he m e
358.01
2 0 12 - 2 0 13
2 0 11- 2 0 12
10.08
9.70
233.06
299.84
481.47
Returns (%)
55.88
12.24
3.91
26.33
17.53
7.31
13/(141)
116/(127)
Catego ry Rank
F ina nc ia l D e t a ils
2 0 10 - 2 0 11*
11.39
10.51
712.46
-8.38
5.11
-9.11
42/(62)
10.27
36/(59)
NA
Q ua rt e rly P e rf o rm a nc e - La s t 5 ye a rs
A UM A s O n ( 3 0 - J un- 2 0 15 ) R s .C r
466.90
F ina nc ia l Y e a r
N A V a s o n ( 0 5 - A ug- 2 0 15 ) R s .
18.4310
2015-2016
-01.67
NA
NA
NA
1000
2014-2015
21.32
08.73
09.73
06.98
Lum ps um
M in Inv e s t m e nt ( R s .)
S IP
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
500
2013-2014
-01.84
-03.78
13.07
02.98
N A V ( 5 2 We e k H igh) {2 0 - J ul- 2 0 15 }
18.52
2012-2013
-05.80
09.62
09.82
-10.37
( 5 2 We e k Lo w) {0 8 - A ug- 2 0 14 }
13.6290
-09.30
-10.43
2011-2012
01.27
T o p 10 C o m pa nie s
N ame
M a rk e t C a pit a lis a t io n
A s s e t C o m po s it io n
MCAP %
Asset %
11.21
7.62
7.10
6.22
6.04
5.58
60
5.10
40
4.94
4.68
4.65
100
Debt
6%
80
Cash
-4%
Equity
90%
20
2.75
Mid
Small
0
Large
3.99
97.25
*LargeCap- >Rs. 10,000 cro res; M idCap- between Rs.1,000 cro res to Rs.10,000 cro res; SmallCap- <Rs.1,000 cro res.
S IP - Inv e s t e d R s . 5 ,0 0 0 E v e ry M o nt h
T o tal
Inv e s t m e nt
( R s .)
P e rio d
S c he m e ( R s .)
T o p 10 S e c t o rwis e H o ldings
N ame
B e nc hM a rk
1Year
60,000
60,707
57,986
3 Years
180000
2,66,359
2,37,664
A uto mo bile
5 Years
3,00,000
4,86,322
4,36,836
10 Years
6,00,000
NA
NA
Wha t s In Wha t s O ut ( F ro m P re v io us M o nt h)
C o m pa ny
Secto r
In
Out
No Change/%age change
RETAIL RESEARCH
23/(91.71%)
0
1
16/(91.71%)
B anks
S c he m e P e rf o rm a nc e ( A s O n 8 / 5 / 2 0 15 )
P e rio d
R e t urns [ %)
S &P B S E
S e ns e x
R a nk
20.27
3 M o nth
7.86
2.85
11/(72)
18.91
6 M o nth
6.18
-2.18
10/(72)
Refineries
09.83
1Year
31.79
8.94
6/(67)
P harmaceuticals
07.18
3 Year
26.24
17.92
10/(64)
Cement
06.45
5 Year
11.82
9.20
26/(55)
FM CG
06.39
Since Inc
12.59
IT - So ftware
06.22
04.94
R2
4.64
03.99
B eta
Fertilizers
02.93
V o la t ilit y M e a s ure s
1.00 Sharpe
0.03
Key Points
DSP BR Focus 25 Fund is a scheme from Equity Diversified Large cap category has showed better
performance in the recent periods. The scheme has showed better performance among peers during the
period wherein the mid-cap stocks witnessed rally with concentrated large-cap investment strategy that
has helped the scheme generating relatively better alpha.
The scheme registered +32%, +26% and +12% of compounded returns for the one, three and five year
periods while the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex posted +9%, +18% and +9% of returns respectively. Over
the same period, the category clocked +21%, +22% and +12% of CAGR returns respectively.
A focused strategy allows the fund manager to allocate a higher proportion of the fund to high conviction
& large-cap stocks which are the form and part of S&P BSE Sensex index.
The concentrated large-cap portfolio could bodes well especially during market rise and generates a
greater alpha. On the other hand, they tend to generate underperforming returns during market
corrections. However, the concentration risk is mitigated by consciously investing in companies with
superior managements and stable cash flows. Investors need to watch the performance of the scheme
during market down turns.
The fund manager follows a bottom-up stock selection approach and currently focuses on companies
which benefit from operating leverage. The fund manager follows buy and hold strategy as its turnover
ratio stood at 67%. The portfolio has been churned moderately in last one year period as the scheme
added 11 new stocks and exited from 15. That reflects in the turnover ratio which has been at 33%.
HDFC Bank, BPCL and TCS Ltd are the stocks topped in its latest portfolio having weights of 7.62%, 7.10%
and 6.22% to its net assets respectively. The expense ratio of 2.90% for the scheme is higher compared to
the category (the category average has been at 2.64%).
Rating agencies like Value research & Crisil assigned 3 star and CPR 3 respectively for the scheme.
These reflect above average performance of the scheme on generating high-risk adjusted returns.
The scheme is managed by Mr. Harish Zaveri since Dec 2014. The corpus of the scheme as per latest data
was at Rs. 467 crore.
As far as risk measures are concerned, the scheme seems to be higher risky in the category given its
concentrated investment strategy. The scheme has generated 4.64% (category 4.26%) of Standard
Deviation that calculated from the monthly returns over the last three-year NAV history.
RETAIL RESEARCH
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
167.50
9364
19.03
26.52
14.49
477.37
18032
11.86
23.41
30.02
9107
16.09
24.90
1386
18.16
50.61
Scheme Name
Top holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
Above
Average
24.40
CPR 2
4 Star
Average
12.67
20.67
CPR 3
2 Star
High
Average
23.73
14.62
16.56
CPR 2
5 Star
Below
Average
High
23.66
26.23
14.63
12.14
CPR 3
3 Star
Above
Average
Above
Average
467
28.63
26.17
11.67
12.35
CPR 3
3 Star
Above
Average
Average
854
21.62
22.67
13.08
12.96
CPR 2
4 Star
Low
Above
Average
Top holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Below
Average
Return
Grade
*-Recent performance of these schemes is good. Need to watch longer term performance.
Equity - Diversified - Multi CAP
5 Year
Return Since
Return
Inception
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
30.38
2934
37.19
36.30
19.15
14.90
CPR 1
5 Star
76.05
11319
23.61
26.82
16.98
21.70
CPR 2
3 Star
Average
Average
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception
Top holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Return
Grade
25.52
1604
31.67
39.42
21.28
CPR 3
3 Star
Risk
Grade
Above
Average
117.07
9770
26.86
33.09
19.86
25.21
CPR 2
4 Star
Low
Above
Average
36.70
439
33.65
36.56
21.63
20.12
CPR 3
4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Top holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
31.32
5437
30.76
35.22
21.87
CPR 1
5 Star
Low
High
Scheme Name
High
Scheme Name
AXIS Long Term Equity Fund (G)
INF846K01131
RETAIL RESEARCH
22.75
High
47.00
4393
22.10
30.52
17.87
17.02
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception
108.96
4121
18.99
23.00
15.82
172.39
3733
26.28
25.71
108.96
4121
18.99
23.00
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
33.67
2633
35.15
3815
10.70
12.46
9.83
NAV (Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
28.32
18718
8.79
9.27
3172.16
1692
8.74
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
270.42
CPR 2
4 Star
High
High
Top holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
17.42
CPR 2
4 Star
Risk
Grade
Below
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
16.59
17.28
CPR 1
5 Star
Below
Average
High
15.82
17.42
CPR 2
4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
CPR 2
4 Star
Risk
Grade
Above
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
CPR 3
2 Star
High
Above
Average
Return Since
Inception
Top Holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
9.06
7.30
CPR 2
3 Star
Risk
Grade
Below
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
9.25
9.00
7.37
CPR 2
4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception
Top Holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
12295
9.22
9.84
9.41
8.06
CPR 3
3 Star
Risk
Grade
Below
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
20.08
2582
9.16
9.80
9.37
7.60
CPR 4
3 Star
Average
Average
NAV
Fund Size
1 Year
2 Year
Top Holdings
Crisil
Value Research
Risk
Return
Scheme Name
Hybrid - Monthly Income Plan - Long Term (About 15% to 20% in equity)
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
Return Since
Top holdings
Return
Return
Return
Inception
Eq: Sundaram-Clayton, Federal Mogul
13.64
12.40
9.97
11.06
Goetze, HDFC Bank. CP: PFC
11.46
Liquid Funds
Scheme Name
HDFC Liquid Fund (G)
INF179K01KG8
SBI Magnum InstaCash - Cash Plan
INF200K01LJ4
RETAIL RESEARCH
3 Year
Return Since
(Rs)
(Crs. Rs)
Return
Return
Return
Inception
Rank
Rating
CPR 1
3 Star
Grade
Above
Average
Grade
265.79
4643
10.45
10.96
10.01
7.64
2948.10
11219
10.99
11.26
10.15
8.35
CPR 2
4 Star
Average
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
Income Funds
3 Year
Return Since
Return
Inception
Top Holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
17.49
4207
10.65
11.37
10.76
9.22
CPR 4
4 Star
Low
14.47
8788
10.68
11.50
10.13
10.71
CPR 3
5 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Top Holdings
Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Return
Grade
30.36
1578
14.44
12.05
11.50
7.92
CPR 1
5 Star
Risk
Grade
Below
Average
23.62
50
8.88
10.70
13.19
6.22
5 Star
Low
High
Scheme Name
Notes:
Gilt Funds
Return Since
Inception
High
Above
Average
Return
Grade
Above
Average
High
RETAIL RESEARCH
NFO:
Scheme name
Open Date
Close Date
Tenure
Minimum Investments
08-08-2015
22-08-2015
1290 Days
5000
04-08-2015
18-08-2015
1105 Days
5000
07-08-2015
17-08-2015
1278 Days
5000
27-07-2015
10-08-2015
25-07-2015
08-08-2015
1101 Days
5000
14-08-2015
28-08-2015
1099 Days
5000
12-08-2015
25-08-2015
1113 Days
5000
29-07-2015
12-08-2015
1111 Days
5000
06-08-2015
12-08-2015
1111 Days
5000
07-08-2015
12-08-2015
1100 Days
5000
06-08-2015
12-08-2015
1170 Days
5000
28-07-2015
11-08-2015
1100 Days
5000
05-08-2015
11-08-2015
1134 Days
5000
28-07-2015
11-08-2015
1098 Days
5000
Balanced:
5000
Mutual FundNEWS:
Change in Name of Tata Tax Saving Fund: Tata Mutual Fund has decided to change the name of Tata Tax
Saving Fund to Tata Long Term Equity Fund with effect from 10th August, 2015.
Change in Fundamental Attributes of HSBC Progressive Themes Fund: HSBC Mutual Fund has made the
following changes in the fundamental attributes of HSBC Progressive Themes Fund with effect from
September 14, 2015. Name of Scheme: The revised name of the scheme is HSBC Infrastructure Equity
Fund. Type of Scheme: The type of scheme has been changed from open-ended flexi-theme equity
scheme to open-ended equity scheme.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Dividend
Scheme Name
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.I (D)
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.V (D)
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.II (D)
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.VI (D)
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.IV (D)
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.III (D)
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.VII (D)
UTI-Wealth Builder Fund - Sr.II (D)
ICICI Pru R.I.G.H.T. Fund (D)
BNP Paribas Dividend Yield Fund (D)
Canara Robeco F.O.R.C.E. Fund (D)
Birla Sun Life New Millennium Fund (D)
IDFC Equity Opportunity - Series 3 (D)
Record Date
07-08-2015
07-08-2015
07-08-2015
07-08-2015
07-08-2015
07-08-2015
07-08-2015
03-08-2015
31-07-2015
31-07-2015
31-07-2015
31-07-2015
30-07-2015
Gross (%)
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
27.50
21.50
1.00
13.00
20.00
15.00
Ex-Dividend Date
10-08-2015
10-08-2015
10-08-2015
10-08-2015
10-08-2015
10-08-2015
10-08-2015
04-08-2015
03-08-2015
03-08-2015
03-08-2015
03-08-2015
31-07-2015
Global Updates:
India:
Central Board of Direct Taxes raises cost inflation index by 5.57% to 1081 for fiscal year 2016.
Indian companies raised about $3.16 bn in foreign borrowing in June, a rise of 67% over the same month last year.
Indias core sector growth slipped to 2.4% in June after hitting a six May mainly on account of contraction in crude oil and natural gas production.
India's fiscal deficit reached Rs 2.87 lakh cr during April current fiscal.
Government to infuse Rs 70000 cr in public sector banks over four years to address the issue of bad loans.
Asia:
Japans retail sales rose 0.9% in the year to June, compared with a 3% rise in May.
Japans industrial production rose 0.8% from the previous month in June, compared with a 2.1% decline in May.
Japans core consumer price index rose 0.1% in June from a year earlier, flat from the previous months reading
Japan's unemployment rate rose to 3.4% in June, up 0.1% from May.
US:
US flash services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.2 in July from the final 54.8 reading in June.
Pending home sales unexpectedly fell 1.8% in June, the first drop this year, after a revised 0.6% increase in May.
The US economy expanded 2.3% annually in the second quarter compared to a revised growth of 0.6% in the first quarter
Initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 in the week ended July 25.
US Employment Cost Index edged up 0.2% in the second quarter, the smallest gain since the series started in the second quarter of 1982, and following an unrevised 0.7% increase in the first
quarter.
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 93.1 in July from 96.1 in June
The UK economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.6% in the second quarter, compared to 2.9% growth in the previous quarter.
UK net consumer credit increased by 1.22 bn pounds in June compared to 1.057 bn pounds in May.
UK GfK consumer confidence index fell to 4 in July compared with 7 in June.
UK:
Euro Zone:
Euro zone economic sentiment index came in at 104 in July compared to 103.5 in June; the consumer confidence index fell to -7.1 in July from -5.6 a month ago.
Euro zones annual inflation was 0.2% in July, the same as in June.
Euro zones seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.1% in June, stable compared with May, and down from 11.6% in June 2014.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Economic Calendar:
Date
Country
08-06-2015
US
08-06-2015
US
08-06-2015
US
08-07-2015
08-07-2015
Event
Period
Frequency
Unit
Jul, 2015
Monthly
wk8/1, 2015
Weekly
wk8/2, 2015
Weekly
US
wk8/5, 2015
Weekly
4.49
US
Jul, 2015
Monthly
223000
08-10-2015
India
Jun
Monthly
99.5
08-11-2015
US
Redbook
wk8/8, 2015
Weekly
08-12-2015
Japan
Jan, 2015
Monthly
08-12-2015
India
08-12-2015
India
08-12-2015
India
08-12-2015
UK
Jul, 2015
08-12-2015
08-12-2015
India
13-08-2015
Previous
267
40.5
Weekly
pct
7.44
Weekly
pct
10.21
Fortnightly
pct
7.53
Monthly
Percent
2.3
Jun, 2015
Yearly
Percent
1.6
Jun
Monthly
pct
2.7
US
Jobless Claims
wk8/8, 2015
Weekly
13-08-2015
US
wk8/9, 2015
Weekly
13-08-2015
US
wk8/7, 2015
Weekly
14-08-2015
US
wk8/12, 2015
Weekly
14-08-2015
US
Money Supply
wk8/3, 2015
Weekly
14-08-2015
India
Jul
Monthly
14-08-2015
India
Jul
Monthly
pct
14-08-2015
Germany
Q2, 2015
Yearly
Percent
14-08-2015
France
Q2, 2015
Quarterly
Percent
0.6
14-08-2015
Jul, 2015
Monthly
Percent
14-08-2015
Q2, 2015
Quarterly
Percent
0.4
14-08-2015
Jul, 2015
Yearly
Percent
0.2
14-08-2015
US
Consumer Sentiment
Aug, 2015
Monthly
14-08-2015
India
Wk to Aug 7
Weekly
Rs bln
14-08-2015
India
Wk to Aug 7
Weekly
Rs bln
14-08-2015
India
Wk to Aug 7
Weekly
$ mln
17-08-2015
India
Jul
Monthly
mln tn
3.1
17-08-2015
India
Output of Refinery
Jul
Monthly
mln tn
18.87
17-08-2015
India
Jul
Monthly
bln cu m
2.72
RETAIL RESEARCH
Wk to Aug 7
pct
-2.4
Economy Updates
US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee
Indian rupee snapped 3-week losing streak against the US dollar, recovered by 32 paise
to close at 63.81 per dollar on fresh selling by banks and exporters on the back of good
foreign capital inflows into equity market.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation came in at -2.40 for the month of June
2015. It has been in the negative zone for the last eight months. On the other hand, the
Consumer Price Index based inflation data (CPI), showed retail inflation rose 5.4% in June. In
its policy meet held on June 04, the RBI cut repo rate by 25bps to 7.25% and expressed its
concerns over the upside risks to inflation due to uncertainty on the monsoon front.
Inflation, as measured on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) came in at -2.40 for the
month of June 2015, it has been in the negative zone for the last eight months. Build up
in inflation rate in the financial year so far was 1.42 per cent compared to a buildup rate
of 1.50 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The y-o-y growth in scheduled commercial bank (SCB) credit remained stagnant at 9.4 per
cent in the fortnight ended 24 July 2015. The outstanding SCB credit decreased by Rs.144.1
billion to Rs.65.6 trillion. The food and non-food credit stood at Rs.1.1 trillion and Rs.65.5
trillion, respectively, as on 24 July 2015. The SCB deposit base increased by Rs.10.5 billion to
Rs.88.8 trillion during the fortnight. The y-o-y growth in total deposits improved marginally
to 11.8 per cent. The demand deposit and time deposit stood at Rs.8 trillion and Rs.81
trillion, respectively, as on 24 July 2015.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Money supply (M3) or broad money fell by Rs.47.2 billion to Rs.109.4 trillion during the
fortnight ended 24 July 2015. Out of the components of M3, demand deposits with the banks
rose by Rs.123.1 billion to Rs.9 trillion and time deposits contracted by Rs.104.8 billion to
Rs.86 trillion. Currency with the public fell by Rs.155.6 billion to Rs.14.2 trillion. Other deposits
with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) grew by Rs.90.1 billion to Rs.0.2 trillion.
Corporate bond yields rose last week. The one year AAA credit spreads rose by 8 basis point
while 10 year spread rose by 3 basis points.
India's foreign exchange reserves plunging by $188 million in the week ended July 31. Its
weekly statistical supplement, showed that India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $
353,460.5 million.
The RBI infused average gross liquidity via Repo under LAF window worth Rs. 2,251 Cr in this
week compared to an infusion of Rs. 4,996 Cr in previous week. Infusions via the MSF route
averaged Rs. 4 Cr. The Call rate ended at 7.09% versus 7.12% compared to previous weeks
closing. The CBLO ended at 7.05% compared to 6.80% in the previous week.
RETAIL RESEARCH
In May, MF bought debts worth Rs. 15,956 crore while In June, MF bought worth Rs.
36,331 crore. In July, MF bought debts worth Rs. 30,907 crore.
CD rates are trending marginally lower in the recent periods. The CD rates hovered around
7.95% levels (as per the latest data) (one year CD).
In May, FIIs sold debt worth Rs. 8,815 crore. In June, FII bought debts worth Rs. 19,331
crore. In July, FII bought debt worth Rs. 177 crore.
Rates of Commercial papers are seen trading marginally higher in the recent periods. The CP
rates are hovering around 8.6% levels (one year maturity CP).
RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email:
hdfcsecretailresearch@hdfcsec.com
Disclaimer: Mutual Funds and Debt investments are subject to risk. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be
reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied
upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for nonInstitutional Clients
This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams
(Institutional, PCG) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
RETAIL RESEARCH