DES MOINES REGISTER/BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY

400 Republican likely caucusgoers
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Compared to:
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points

Study #2125
August 23-26, 2015
2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
June 19-22, 2015
1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

May 25-29, 2015

4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party

January 26-29, 2015

3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points for each party

October 1-7, 2014

3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-

Yes
No
Not sure

Continue
Terminate

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus

Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus

Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably not
attend a
caucus

Dont know
which caucus
will attend

Not sure

47

53

36
40
39

64
60
61

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus

Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus

Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably not
attend a
caucus

Dont know
which caucus
will attend

Not sure

38

62

45
39
42
39

55
61
58
61

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Attended
Republican
caucus in the past

Attended
Democratic
caucus in the past

64

12

21

68
67
72

4
1
2

11
15
11

17
17
14

1
1

Attended
both

First
caucus

Not sure

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Attended
Republican
caucus in the past
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Attended
Democratic
caucus in the past

Attended
both

First
caucus

Not sure

65

12

19

3
7
12

68
61
63

9
11
12

18
21
12

1
1

Asked only of likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Now, Im going to mention some prominent Democrats, including [Before Aug-15: people talked about as possible]
candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable,
mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer,
just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Barack Obama, president of the United

States

Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

88

43

45

91
89
86

7
9
13

44
49
49

47
40
37

5
6
5

2
3
8

2
2
1

Joe Biden, vice president of the United

States

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

79*

14

29

51

76
78
60

20
20
34

22
25
15

54
53
45

14
14
19

6
6
15

4
2
6

Aug-15

11*

80

Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

77

19

27

50

88
86*
84
76

10
12*
15
19

30
39
46
43

58
46
38
33

6
7
7
8

4
6
8
11

2
2
1
5

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

33

7*

25

60

20*
13
13

8
9
9

4
2
2

17
11
11

5
6
7

3
3
2

72
78
78

Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from

Vermont

Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

73

39

34

19

57
47
37
29

4
12
12
13

27
23
17
10

30
24
20
19

3
8
8
8

1
4
4
5

39
41
51
58

Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from

Virginia

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

19*

12

16

10

68

22
21
16

9*
11
12

3
3
1

19
18
15

7
8
8

3
3
4

69
68
72

Lincoln Chafee, former governor of

Rhode Island
Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state

Martin OMalley, former governor of

Maryland

10

*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Choice

Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

Second
Choice

14
1
37
3
30
2
6

24
23
8
20
1
3

6
13

First choice
with Biden
reallocated

Combined

38
1
60
11
50
3

n/a
1
43
5
35
2
6
8

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Joe Biden

Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton

Martin OMalley

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure

No first choice

Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

First
Choice

Second
Choice

Combined

14

24

38

n/a
8
9

n/a
31
26

n/a
39
35

37

23

60

50
57
56

18
15
15

68
72
71

11

2
2
1

10
3
3

12
5
4

30

20

50

24
16
5

20
13
6

44
29
11

n/a
2
3

n/a
5
6

n/a
7
9

7
6
4

8
6
3

16
8
6

19
13
8

13
23
14
10

(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in first or second choice questions.) Im going to mention the
Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice, code AC=4 and do not ask.)

Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice in
Q.4a/b

Ever

Never

Aug-15
May-15

46

12

38

37

15

10

39

Aug-15
May-15

31

27

40

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Aug-15
May-15

26

13

60

16

72

Aug-15
May-15

38

21

30

11

34

13

48

Aug-15
May-15

30

12

50

23

18

30

29

Aug-15
May-15

36

26

34

32

13

47

Is your support for Bernie Sanders mostly because you support him and his ideas or mostly because you do not
support Hillary Clinton? (Asked only of Bernie Sanders supporters; n=112.)
96
2
3

Mostly support Sanders and his ideas

Mostly do not support Hillary Clinton
Not sure

If Hillary Clinton drops out of the race for some reason, are you mostly satisfied in the slate of other declared
candidatesLincoln Chafee, Martin OMalley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webbor do you want more candidates to
enter the race? (Asked only of Hillary Clinton supporters; n=162.)
39
51
10

Mostly satisfied
Want others to enter the race
Not sure

If Hillary Clinton were to become the Democratic nominee, do you think you would be mostly confident in her
chances to win the general election, or mostly nervous that she would lose the election?
66
24
9

Mostly confident
Mostly nervous
Not sure

Hillary Clinton has said voters do not bring up the issue of her email server while she is campaigning. Is this issue
important to you as you think about her candidacyis it very important, fairly important, just somewhat important,
or not important?
10
7
21
61
1

Very important
Fairly important
Just somewhat important
Not important
Not sure

How would you describe your feelings toward Donald Trumpare your feelings very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly
unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
4
10
22
63
1

Very favorable
Mostly favorable
Mostly unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Not sure

Asked only of likely Republican caucusgoers.

Now, Im going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your
feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about
the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)
Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

45*

50

10

36

31

19

43
46
50

45
43
28

11
17
9

32
29
41

27
25
19

18
18
9

13
11
22

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from
Maryland

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

79

46

33

13

56
50
41

15
12
8

24
28
24

32
22
17

10
9
4

5
3
4

29
38
51

Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

29

59

24

36

23

12

28*
36
39

58
54
45

6
7
8

21
29
31

39
32
29

19
22
16

14
10
16

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

61

24

29

32

17

15

59
58
52

20
21
18

20
22
20

39
36
32

13
14
11

7
7
7

21
21
30

Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida

Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas

Not
Sure

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S. Senate
in California

Aug-15

64

15

31

33

21

May-15

41*

19*

13

27

12

40

Jan-15

15

19

11

13

66

Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia

Aug-15

22*

12

75

Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from

South Carolina

Aug-15
May-15

15

59*

13

35

25

26

22*

38

19

23

15

40

Mike Huckabee, former governor of

Arkansas

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

61

30*

17

44

21

10

61
66
59

30
28
30

21
28
23

40
38
36

21
21
23

9
7
7

9
6
11

Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

61*

18*

18

42

14

21

43
39
41

19
20
14

15
10
12

28
29
29

15
15
11

4
5
3

38
41
45

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

33*

22

10

22

17

45

25
22
17

16*
14
7

7
7
3

18
15
14

11
10
5

4
4
2

59
64
76

40*

26

15

51

10

35

22

13

55

John Kasich, governor of Ohio

George Pataki, former governor of New

York

Aug-15
May-15

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

39*

49

11

29

31

18

12

55
64
59

34
25
24

16
25
21

39
39
38

24
18
18

10
7
6

11
11
17

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

54

37

47

26

11

59
64
64

29
26
23

14
20
23

45
44
41

21
20
17

8
6
6

13
10
13

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

67

20

24

43

15

13

60
57
54

17
20
16

20
16
14

40
41
40

12
15
12

5
5
4

23
23
30

Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from

Pennsylvania

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

48*

37*

11

38

26

10

15

56
57
52

28
30
30

18
16
14

38
41
38

19
22
20

9
8
10

16
13
18

Donald Trump, businessman and

television personality

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

61*

35

26

34

16

19

27
26

63*
68

7
4

20
22

31
36

33
32

10
6

Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

71

15

25

46

10

14

66
60
49

11
12
10

31
32
20

35
28
29

5
6
7

6
6
3

23
28
41

Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky

Rick Perry, former governor of Texas

Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida

*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the
best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice
question as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent says the word
uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

First
Choice

Second
Choice

6
18
2
8
5
4
2
2
4
1
6
1
23
8
5

4
14
1
10
11
4
4
3
3
2
8
2
9
9
1

4
10

Combined

10
32
3
18
16
8
6
5
7
3
14
3
32
17

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice
as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Choice

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
May-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

Second
Choice

Combined

10

9
8

7
7

16
15

18

14

32

10
9

5
10

15
19

4
4

4
3

8
7

10

18

5
5

8
6

13
11

11

16

2
1

3
1

5
2

2*

9
10

8
7

17*
17

1
2

4
2

5
4

2
1

1
1

3
2

10
14

5
9

15
23

3
3

6
5

9
8

14

6
3

12
8

18
11

6
4

6
6

12
10

23

32

4
1

2
1

6
2

17

17
15

10
10

27
25

First
Choice

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

Second
Choice

4
2

2
1

7
5

5
6

*Combined does not match below for certain candidates due to rounding.

10
11
7

Combined

(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered in first or second choice questions.] Im going to mention the
candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace questions. If selected as first or second choice, code AC=4 and do not ask.)

Ever

Never

Aug-15
May-15

50

39

38

35

10

16

Aug-15
May-15

50

12

32

47

18

20

15

Aug-15
May-15

44

48

34

45

13

Aug-15
May-15

54

24

18

49

21

18

13

Aug-15
May-15

55

20

16

38

27

30

Jim Gilmore

Aug-15

20

51

28

Lindsey Graham

Aug-15
May-15

30

57

13

29

43

25

Aug-15
May-15

60

28

51

24

16

Aug-15
May-15

65

20

10

45

25

25

Aug-15
May-15

41

40

14

29

28

40

Aug-15
May-15

26

57

17

20

41

38

Aug-15
May-15

43

43

45

30

10

15

Aug-15
May-15

58

35

54

27

10

Aug-15
May-15

60

19

15

49

18

15

18

Aug-15
May-15

56

35

51

26

11

12

Aug-15
May-15

36

29

32

28

58

Aug-15
May-15

60

16

16

41

15

17

27

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina

Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice in
horserace

Do you want to be clear about specific policies [NAME OF FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE] would address if elected, or
do you trust [HIM/HER] to figure it out once [S/HE] is in office?
41
57
2

Want to be clear
Trust candidate to figure it out
Not sure

Which of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best: (Rotate list.)
21
39
22
8
11

Tea party
Christian conservative
Business-oriented establishment Republican
Liberty movement
Not sure

Skip to next question

Ask b
Skip to next question

There are more Republican candidates with conservative Christian credentials than in past caucuses, which could
split the communitys vote. Could you be persuaded to support another Christian conservative candidate in the
caucus, even if that means you would cast your vote for someone other than your first or second choice? (Asked
only of Christian conservatives; n=165.)
77
18
6

Yes
No
Not sure

Asked of both Democratic and Republican caucusgoers.

For each of the following, Id like you to tell me if you feel happy with the way things are going, satisfied,
unsatisfied, or mad as hell with the way things are going. (Rotate list.)
Happy

Satisfied

Unsatisfied

Mad As
Hell

Not
Sure

The U.S. government

Rep CG
Dem CG

1
4

9
40

52
43

38
12

1
1

Barack Obama

Rep CG
Dem CG

23

4
58

39
14

57
4

Wall Street

Rep CG
Dem CG

2
2

28
27

43
38

19
26

8
7

Republicans in Congress

Rep CG
Dem CG

3
1

19
7

54
47

21
44

2
1

Democrats in Congress

Rep CG
Dem CG

5
41

45
43

48
8

1
1

Donald Trump

Rep CG
Dem CG

16
4

48
12

25
42

7
39

4
3

Politicians in general

Rep CG
Dem CG

1
2

6
14

62
60

29
22

2
2

The Internal Revenue Service

Rep CG
Dem CG

2
3

11
50

40
29

43
9

3
8

The Supreme Court

Rep CG
Dem CG

1
10

18
59

47
21

32
6

2
4

The amount of money in politics

Rep CG
Dem CG

7
5

51
33

40
61

3
1

Hillary Clinton

Rep CG
Dem CG

1
18

5
57

35
18

58
5

2
2

About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted August 23-26 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend
the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,975 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states
voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active
voters in the voter registration list. Interviews were administered in English.
Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.
For additional technical information about this study, contact Michelle Yeoman at myeoman@selzerco.com.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.