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GASOLINA
SEMANA
VENTAS
(Miles
de Galones)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
15
22
VENTAS (Miles de
Galones)
PRONOSTICO CON
PROMEDIOS MOVILES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
15
22
19.00
21.00
20.00
19.00
18.00
18.00
20.00
20.00
19.00
SEMANA
VENTAS (Miles de
Galones)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
PRONOSTICO CON
PROMEDIOS MOVILES
(4)
20.00
20.25
19.00
19.25
18.00
19.00
11
12
15
22
20.00
18.75
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO
4.00
-3.00
-4.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-5.00
3.00
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO AL
CUADRADO
ERROR ABSOLUTO
4.00
3.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
24.00
2.67
Error
PRONOSTICO CON
PROMEDIOS
MOVILES (3)
19.00
21.00
20.00
19.00
18.00
18.00
20.00
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO
-2.00
-4.25
1.00
-1.25
4.00
1.00
ERROR ABSOLUTO
2.00
4.25
1.00
1.25
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO AL
CUADRADO
20.00
19.00
-5.00
3.25
-3.25
-0.41
Error
5.00
3.25
21.75
2.72
0.00
0.00
CON EXCEL
Media m
Err:512
25
Err:512
19
20
21
15
20
19
18
18
20
20
19
19
Valor
10
5
0
1
Punto de datos
Media mvil
Real
Pronstico
Punto de datos
10
11
12
FACTOR T
FACTOR T-1
FACTOR T-2
0.50
0.33
0.17
SEMANA
VENTAS (Miles de
Galones)
PRONOSTICO CON
PROMEDIOS MOVILES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
15
22
19.33
21.33
19.83
17.83
18.33
18.33
20.33
20.33
17.83
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO AL
CUADRADO
3.67
-3.33
-3.83
2.17
-0.33
3.67
-0.33
-5.33
4.17
3.67
3.33
3.83
2.17
0.33
3.67
0.33
5.33
4.17
Error
26.83
2.98
) + fc(t-2)xY(t-2)
FACTOR
0.10
SEMANA
VENTAS (Miles de
Galones)
PRONOSTICO CON
SUAVIZAMIENTO
EXPONENCIAL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
15
22
17.00
17.00
17.42
17.59
18.15
18.14
17.91
18.13
18.12
18.53
18.68
18.29
FACTOR
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Error
11.91
10.04
9.25
8.98
8.98
9.12
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
9.35
9.63
9.96
10.31
10.70
11.11
11.55
12.02
12.52
13.05
13.61
14.21
14.86
15.54
16.27
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO
4.00
1.58
5.41
-0.15
-2.14
2.09
-0.13
3.88
1.47
-3.68
3.71
ERROR ACUMULADO
16.04
ERROR PROMEDIO
1.46
ERROR DE
PRONSTICO AL
CUADRADO
4.00
1.58
5.41
0.15
2.14
2.09
0.13
3.88
1.47
3.68
3.71
28.25
2.57
ABSOLUTO
SIMPLE
vs Error de Pronstico
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
PTIMO
0.40
0.50
Error
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.17
8.96
0.90
erro simple
error absoluto
stico
0.80
0.90
1.00
0.80
0.90
1.00
CON EXCEL
Err:512
17.00
Suavizacin exponencial
17.80
24
18.04
22
19.03
20
18.83
18.26
18
Valor
16
18.61
14
18.49
12
19.19
19.35
18.48
10
1
Punto de datos
10
11
12
exponencial
Real
Pronstico
atos
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
21.6
22.9
25.5
21.9
23.9
27.5
31.5
29.7
28.6
31.4
Yt
t x Yt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
21.6
45.8
76.5
87.6
119.5
165
220.5
237.6
257.4
314
21.6
91.6
229.5
350.4
597.5
990
1543.5
1900.8
2316.6
3140
Yt
t x Yt
55
1545.5 11181.5
t promedio Y Promedio
5.5
t promedio
154.55
Y promedio
B(1)
32.5
Pendiente
B(0)
-24.2
Intercepcin
AO (t)
Ventas
(Miles)
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
21.6
22.9
25.5
21.9
23.9
27.5
31.5
29.7
28.6
31.4
t
385
33
Ventas (Miles)
31
Pronstico
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
1
10
19
17
15
1
10
+ 1.1 x t
CON EXCEL
Pronstico
Resumen
8.3
0
-72.6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
Coeficiente de determinac
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
AO (t)
AO
(t) Curva de regres
Anlisis de los residuales
33
31
Observacin
29
27
25
Ventas
23(Miles)
21
19
17
15
0
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
9
10
Ventas
Prons
6
AO (t)
17
15
0
6
AO (t)
10
s de la regresin
0.87452617
0.76479602
0.73539552
1.9589538
10
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
1
99.825
99.825 26.0130293 0.00092951
8
30.7
130.525
3.8375
12
6
AO (t)
10
12
Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
17.3140587 23.4859413
0.60265552 1.59734448
AO (t)
1
2
3
4
5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
T(t) = B(0) + B(
Ventas (Miles)
4.3
5.6
7.8
9.2
9.7
1
2
3
4
5
t
20
t promedio
4
t promedio
B(1)
B(0)
= B(0) + B(1) x t
Yt
t x Yt
4.3
11.2
23.4
36.8
48.5
4.3
22.4
70.2
147.2
242.5
1
4
9
16
25
Yt
t x Yt
124.2
486.6
55
Y Promedio
24.84
Y promedio
0.408
23.208
d y tendencia marcada
Pendiente
Intercepcin
75
Ventas (Miles)
65
Pronstico
55
45
35
25
15
1
25
15
1
Ventas
(Miles)
Pronstico
1
2
3
4
5
0
0
0
0
0
4.3
5.6
7.8
9.2
9.7
0
0
0
0
0
23.616
0
69.624
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
Ventas (Miles)
65
Pronstico
55
45
35
25
15
1
10
25
15
1
10
CON EXCEL
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin 0.87452617
Coeficiente de determinac 0.76479602
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
0.73539552
1.9589538
10
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
1
99.825
99.825
Residuos
30.7
Total
130.525
3.8375
AO
(t) Curva de regresin ajustada
Anlisis de los residuales
33
31
17
15
0
3
AO (t)
F
Valor crtico de F
26.0130293 0.00092951
tada
)
6
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de
0.8745261666
Coeficiente d
0.7647960161
R^2 ajustado
0.7353955181
Error tpico
1.5574148722
Observacione
10
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
1 63.0956713 63.0956713 26.0130293
8 19.4043287 2.42554108
9
82.5
Coeficientes
Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad
-12.8898678414 3.63912635 -3.54202261 0.00759739
0.6952691055 0.13631934 5.10029698 0.00092951
Valor crtico de F
0.00092951
Ao
Trimestre
Ventas
(Miles)
4.8
4.1
Promedio Movil (4
Trimestres)
5.35
3
6.0
5.60
6.5
5.88
5.8
6.08
2
2
5.2
6.30
6.8
6.35
7.4
6.45
6.0
6.63
2
3
5.6
6.73
7.5
6.80
7.8
6.88
6.3
7.00
2
4
5.9
7.15
8.0
5.58
8.4
lo minimo es 3 Anos
Promedio Movil
Centrado
5.48
5.74
5.98
6.19
6.33
6.40
6.54
6.68
6.76
6.84
6.94
7.08
9.0
1.2
8.0
1.1
7.0
6.0
0.9
5.0
0.8
Ventas (Miles)
4.0
3.0
1
Ao
0.7
10
11
0.6
12
13
Trimestre
Ventas
(Miles)
Promedio Movil
Centrado
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
4.8
4.1
6.0
6.5
5.8
5.2
6.8
7.4
6.0
5.6
7.5
7.8
6.3
5.9
8.0
8.4
5.48
5.74
5.98
6.19
6.33
6.40
6.54
6.68
6.76
6.84
6.94
7.08
14
15
16
12
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
13
14
15
16
Ratio Valor
Irregular y/o
Estacional
0.93220048
0.8377592
1.096
1.133
0.971
0.840
1.075
1.156
0.918
0.839
1.109
1.141
0.908
0.834
1.09334884
INDICE ESTACIONAL
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
1
2
3
4
1.1433051
0.93 0.93220048
0.84 0.8377592
1.09 1.09334884
1.14 1.1433051
0.93220048
0.8377592
1.09334884
1.1433051
0.93220048
0.8377592
1.09334884
1.1433051
8.00
7.00
f(x) =
R =
6.00
5.00
Axis Title
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
0
Yt
trimestre
Ventas
Desestacionalizadas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
t
136
t Promedio
8.5
t x Yt
5.15
4.89
5.49
5.69
6.22
6.21
6.22
6.47
6.44
6.68
6.86
6.82
6.76
7.04
7.32
7.35
5.15
9.79
16.46
22.74
31.11
37.24
43.54
51.78
57.93
66.84
75.46
81.87
87.86
98.60
109.75
117.55
1.00
4.00
9.00
16.00
25.00
36.00
49.00
64.00
81.00
100.00
121.00
144.00
169.00
196.00
225.00
256.00
Yt
t x Yt
101.6046268755 913.666492
Y Promedio
6.3502891797
1496
B(1)
0.147
Pendiente
B(0)
5.100
Intercepcin
Chart Title
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
Axis Title
Column L
4.00
Linear (Column L)
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
0
10
Axis Title
12
14
16
18
home
Trimestre
Tiempo
Pronstico
de
Tendencia
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
7.60
7.75
7.90
8.04
8.19
8.34
8.48
8.63
ndice
Estacional
0.93
0.84
1.09
1.14
0.93
0.84
1.09
1.14
Pronstico
Trimestral
(miles)
Pronstico
Trimestral
(un)
7.09
6.49
8.63
9.19
7.63
6.98
9.28
9.87
7086
6491
8632
9195
7634
6984
9276
9868
periodo
ventas
1
4.8
4.1
6.5
5.8
5.2
6.8
7.4
10
5.6
11
7.5
12
7.8
13
6.3
14
5.9
15
16
8.4
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Chart Title
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
15
20
pronostic
o
7.08562624
6.49104794
8.63225774
9.19489946
7.63427737
6.98411519
9.27575352
9.86779726
Title
20
25
30
Restaurante i
Poblacin de
Ventas trimestrales
Estudiantes (Miles)
(000 US$)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2
6
8
8
12
16
20
20
22
26
58
105
88
118
117
137
157
169
149
202
100
50
0
0
10
15
20
Poblacin de estudiantes
25
30
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
0.95012296
0.90273363
0.89057533
13.8293167
10
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Poblacin de Estudiantes (Miles)
Grados de libertad
1
8
9
Coeficientes
60
5
Observacin
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
14200
14200 74.248366 2.5489E-005
1530
191.25
15730
Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
9.22603481 6.50333553 0.00018744 38.7247256 81.2752744 38.7247256
0.58026524 8.61674916 2.5489E-005 3.66190596 6.33809404 3.66190596
Residuos
-12
15
-12
18
-3
-3
-3
9
-21
12
de regresin ajustada
(000 US $)
Superior 95.0%
81.2752744
6.33809404
Ingresos Brutos
Anuncios en TV (000
semanales (000 US$)
US$)
96
90
95
92
95
94
94
94
5.0
2.0
4.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2.5
3.0
Anuncios en
Peridicos (000 US$)
1.5
2.0
1.5
2.5
3.3
2.3
4.2
2.5
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
0.95866344
0.9190356
0.88664984
0.6425873
8
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
2 23.4354078
5 2.06459221
7
25.5
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Anuncios en TV (000 US$)
Anuncios en Peridicos (000 US$)
rior 95.0%