Commodities Monthly

March 2, 2010

Nordic hydro power deficit, a challenge for industrial recovery

= N=

General Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices
 The early 2010 commodity price slump ended in February with (price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=
the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price index rising 3.9% 190 Industrial Metals
 OECD leading indicators continued to improve in all key areas 180
170
Precious Metals
Energy
except China and India 160 Agriculture
 Fears of Chinese monetary tightening eased after CPI rose less 150
than expected 140
130
 The USD is set to remain strong on EU sovereign debt worries 120
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  110
 Brent continued to trade between $70-80/b in February 100
90
 IEA revised 2010 crude oil demand 170 kb/d higher to 86.5 mb/d 80
 The Iranian nuclear crisis escalated significantly in February 70

jan-09
feb-09

jun-09

jan-10
mar-09
apr-09
maj-09

jul-09
aug-09
sep-09
okt-09
nov-09
dec-09

feb-10
 Sustained crude oil rallies above $80/b are unlikely due to a
healthy supply situation
 Record high Nordic power spot prices on low temperatures in Performance overview
combination with nuclear power plant outages and a weak hydro (MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
balance, prices are likely to remain high 6
YTD (%) MoM (%)
 A global cap & trade agreement on greenhouse gas emissions 4
post 2012 is becoming more and more unlikely
2
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M 
0
 The industrial metals sector was the strongest in February with
the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Price Index rising 5.9% -2

 LME warehouse inventories are currently at 5-year highs -4

 LME cancelled warrants are beginning to pick up, a positive sign -6
Equities

Commodities

Energy

Precious
Industrial

Agriculture
of end user demand metals
metals

 The sector retains significant downside risk if OECD demand

does not materialise
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  Winners & Losers last month
 The IMF will sell 191.3 tonnes of gold on the open market (closing prices, %)=
 The strong dollar environment is challenging for precious metals 20
 EU sovereign debt worries offer a substantial upside risk in gold 15
10
 Greece has until March 16 to devise a plan to cut public spending 5
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  0
 The US Department of Agriculture expects wheat and soybean -5
-10
production to decrease and corn production to be flat during the -15
10/11 crop season while wheat and corn stocks are forecast to -20 c
Emission Rights (EUA)

Zinc
Tin

Gold

Corn

Cotton
Aluminium

Brent
Cocoa

US Gasoline
Soybeans
Sugar

Silver

Copper
Platinum

WTI
Nickel
Power, Nordic
US Natural Gas

Lead
US Heating Oil
Palladium

Wheat
Coffe, Arabica
Power, Continental

fall and soybeans stocks to rise

Steel, Mediterranean

 Sugar prices have fallen by around 20% although the biggest

sugar deficit is expected in Q3
 Cotton prices are at 23-month highs due to strong industrial
demand
=
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Arrows indicate the expected price change during the period in question.

THE NEXT SEB COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE RELEASED ON =

APRIL 9 DUE TO EASTER HOLIDAYS

Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 92 48 92 30, Filip Petersson filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47
SEB Commodity Research

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SEB Commodity Research

CRUDE OIL
=

Crude oil price US crude oil stocks

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
150 NYMEX WTI 380 2005-2009 avg.
140 ICE Brent 2009
130 370 2010
120
110 360
100 350
90
80 340
70
60 330
50
40 320
30
20 310
10
300
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
j f m a m j j a s o n d
=
OIL PRODUCTS
=

Gasoline and heating oil prices Gasoline and distillate stocks

(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
450 NYMEX Gasoline 240
NYMEX Heating oil 230
400
220
350 210
200 Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.
300 190 Gasoline 2010
250 180 Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.
170 Distillate fuel oil 2010
200 160
150 150
140
100 130
120
50
110
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
POWER
=

Nordic power price Continental power price

(Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)= (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
80 95
75 90
85
70
80
65 75
60 70
55 65
60
50
55
45 50
40 45
35 40
35
30 30
25 25
20 20
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =

R
SEB Commodity Research

CO2 NATURAL GAS

=

EUA price US natural gas prices

(ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 10, weekly closing) (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
35 15
14
13
30
12
11
25 10
9
8
20
7
6
15 5
4
3
10
2
1
5 0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
=
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

WTI Brent
(NYMEX, $/b)= (ICE, $/b)=
88 88 10-01-29
10-01-29
86 10-02-19
86 10-02-19
10-02-26
10-02-26 84
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76 74
74 72
72 70
okt-12
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12

jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14

=
=
Gasoline US natural gas
(NYMEX, ¢/gal)= (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
235 10-01-29 8,0
230 10-02-19
7,5
10-02-26
225
7,0
220
215 6,5
210 6,0 10-01-29
205 10-02-19
5,5
200 10-02-26

195 5,0

190 4,5
apr-10

jul-10
okt-10

jan-11
apr-11

jul-11
okt-11

jan-12
apr-12
jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

mar-10
jul-10
nov-10
mar-11
jul-11
nov-11
mar-12
jul-12
nov-12
mar-13
jul-13
nov-13
mar-14
jul-14
nov-14
mar-15
jul-15
nov-15
mar-16
jul-16

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

S
SEB Commodity Research
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ONTRLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= êçëÉ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=
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eçïÉîÉêI=~ÑíÉê=éçëíáåÖ=~=ä~êÖÉ=ëìêéäìë=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=
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qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= EcÉÄêì~êó= OSFW= qÜÉ= ê~íÜÉê=
SEB Commodity Research

ïÉ~â= ~ííÉãéí= íç= ÅçìåíÉê~Åí= äçëëÉë= áåÅìêêÉÇ= ä~ëí=

ãçåíÜ= ~ééÉ~êë= íç= Ü~îÉ= Ñ~áäÉÇ= ~ééêçñáã~íÉäó= ãáÇJ
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NVPULí=~åÇ=~=OMMULMV=RMBWÉê=~í=rpa=NUVMLíK=
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ijb= jÉÇáíÉêê~åÉ~å= ëíÉÉä= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= rpa=

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QQRLíI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~í= rpa= QQRLíK=
fåîÉåíçêó= äÉîÉäë= äìãéÉÇ= ~í= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ= íÜÉ=
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ã~êâÉí= ÉñéÉÅíë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= éêáÅÉë= ~åÇ= ëíêçåÖÉê=
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Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=ã~åó=bìêçéÉ~å=ÅçãéÉíáíçêëK=
=

U
SEB Commodity Research

ALUMINIUM
=

Aluminium price Aluminium stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
3500 5000000 SHFE
3250 COMEX
LME
3000 4000000
2750
2500 3000000
2250
2000 2000000
1750
1500 1000000
1250
1000 0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 = =
=

COPPER
=

Copper price Copper stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
9000 1400000 SHFE
COMEX
8000 1200000 LME

7000
1000000
6000
800000
5000
600000
4000
400000
3000

2000 200000

1000 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
NICKEL
=

Nickel price Nickel stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
55000 180000
50000 160000
45000
140000
40000
35000 120000
30000 100000
25000 80000
20000
60000
15000
40000
10000
5000 20000
0 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
=

V
SEB Commodity Research

ZINC
=

Zinc price Zinc stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
5000 800000 SHFE
4500 700000 LME

4000 600000
3500
500000
3000
400000
2500
300000
2000
1500 200000

1000 100000

500 0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 =
LEAD
=

Lead price Lead stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
4000 225000

3500 200000

3000 175000
150000
2500
125000
2000
100000
1500
75000
1000 50000
500 25000
0 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
TIN
=

Tin price Tin stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
27000 40000

24000 35000

21000 30000

18000 25000

15000 20000

12000 15000
9000 10000
6000 5000
3000 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =

NM
SEB Commodity Research

STEEL
=

Steel price Steel stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
600 60000 LME Far East
LME Mediterranean
LME Mediterranean
550 LME Far East
50000
500
40000
450
400 30000
350
20000
300
10000
250
200 0
dec-08

feb-09

apr-09

jun-09

aug-09

okt-09

dec-09

feb-10

jul-08

sep-08

jul-09

sep-09
nov-08

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

nov-09

jan-10
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

Aluminium Copper
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=

2450 10-01-29 7500

10-02-19 7400
2400
10-02-26 7300
2350 7200
2300 7100 10-01-29
7000 10-02-19
2250
6900 10-02-26
2200 6800
2150 6700
6600
2100 6500
2050 6400
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14

=
= =
Nickel Zinc
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=

21500 2450
21000 2400
2350 10-01-29
20500
10-02-19
2300
20000 10-01-29 10-02-26
10-02-19 2250
19500
10-02-26 2200
19000
2150
18500 2100
18000 2050
jun-10

jun-11

jun-13
mar-10

sep-10
dec-10
mar-11

sep-11
dec-11

jun-12
mar-12

sep-12
dec-12
mar-13

sep-13
dec-13
mar-14

jun-10

jun-11

jun-13
mar-10

sep-10
dec-10
mar-11

sep-11
dec-11

jun-12
mar-12

sep-12
dec-12
mar-13

sep-13
dec-13
mar-14

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ

NN
SEB Commodity Research

=PRECIOUS METALS
=
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ïÉ= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= ë~äÉë= ~êÉ= äáâÉäó= íç= ~ÑÑÉÅí= ã~êâÉí= Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
îçä~íáäáíó=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇK= 5
YTD (%) MoM (%)
= 4
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ã~êâÉí= ëÉÅíçê= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ï~ë= fåîÉëíãÉåíë= 1
EHTBFK= fåÇÉÉÇI= ëíêçåÖ= ïÉëíÉêå= ~åÇ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= 0
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ÇÉã~åÇ= áë= ÑçêÉÅ~ëí= íç= íê~Åâ= ÖäçÄ~ä= ÉÅçåçãáÅ= GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

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ëìééçêíáîÉ=Ñçê=ÖçäÇK=
=

NO
SEB Commodity Research

GOLD
=

Gold price Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios

(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (front month, weekly closing)=
1200 27
Gold to oil ratio (left axis)
1100 25 0,6
Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)
1000 23
21 0,5
900
19
800
17 0,4
700
15
600
13 0,3
500 11
400 9 0,2
300 7
200 5 0,1

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 =
=

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM

=

Silver price Platinum and palladium prices

(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
22 1100 2300
Palladium (left axis)
20 Platinum (right axis) 2050
18 900
1800
16
14 700 1550

12 1300
10 500 1050
8
800
6 300
550
4
2 100 300
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =
=

FUTURES CURVES
=

Gold Silver
(COMEX, $/ozt)= (COMEX, $/ozt)

1300 10-01-29
17,25 10-01-29

10-02-19 10-02-19
1250 10-02-26 17,00 10-02-26

1200 16,75

1150 16,50

1100 16,25

16,00
1050
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10

jun-11

jun-14
dec-10
mar-11

sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14

sep-14
dec-14
jul-10

jan-11

jul-11

jan-12

jul-12

jan-13

jul-13

jan-14

jul-14
apr-10

okt-10

apr-11

okt-11

apr-12

okt-12

apr-13

okt-13

apr-14

okt-14

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

NP
SEB Commodity Research
AGRICULTURE
=
qÜÉ= ã~áå= Åêçéë= EÅçêåI= ïÜÉ~í= ~åÇ= ëçóÄÉ~åëF=
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=
SEB Commodity Research

CORN
=

Corn price Corn ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
800 200 mt
180 days of supply
700
160
600 140
120
500
100
400 80
60
300
40
200 20
0
100

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
=
=
WHEAT
=

Wheat price Wheat ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1200 240 mt
1100 220 days of supply
1000 200
900 180
800 160
700 140
600 120
500 100
400 80
300 60
200 40
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SOYBEANS
=

Soybean price Soybean ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1800 120 mt
days of supply
1600 100
1400
80
1200
60
1000
40
800
20
600

400 0
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

NR
SEB Commodity Research

SUGAR COFFEE
=

Sugar price Coffee price (Arabica)

(NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)= (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=
30 180

25 160

140
20
120
15
100
10
80
5
60

0 40
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
= =
=

=FUTURES CURVES
=

Corn Wheat
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/bu)=

460 10-01-29 700 10-01-29

10-02-19 10-02-19
440 10-02-26 10-02-26
650
420
600
400
550
380

360 500

340 450
mar-10

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11
mar-10

mar-11

mar-12
=

Soybeans Sugar
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/lb)=

10-01-29
980 31
10-02-19
970 29 10-02-26

960 27
950 25
940 23
930 21
10-01-29
920 10-02-19 19
10-02-26 17
910
900 15
maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13
sep-10

dec-10

sep-11

dec-11

sep-12
mar-10

jun-10

mar-11

jun-11

mar-12

jun-12

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=

NS
SEB Commodity Research

=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
=
=

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next

Industrial production (%, YoY) -4,8 2009-12-31 -6,8 2009-11-30 2010-03-12
Industrial production (%, MoM) -1,6 2009-12-31 1,4 2009-11-30 2010-03-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 72,4 2010-03-31 71,0 2009-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 54,2 2010-02-28 52,4 2010-01-31 2010-03-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,1 2009-12-31 -4,0 2009-09-30 2010-03-04
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,1 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-03-04
CPI (%, YoY) 1,0 2010-01-31 0,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-16
CPI (%, MoM) -0,8 2010-01-31 0,3 2009-12-31 2010-03-16
Consumer confidence -17,0 2010-02-28 -16,0 2010-01-31 2010-03-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 0,9 2010-01-31 -2,2 2009-12-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,9 2010-01-31 0,7 2009-12-31 2010-03-15
Capacity utilization (%) 72,6 2010-01-31 71,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-15
Manufacturing PMI 58,4 2010-01-31 54,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 0,1 2009-12-31 -2,6 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 5,9 2009-12-31 2,2 2009-09-30 2010-03-26
CPI (%, MoM) 2,6 2010-01-31 2,7 2009-12-31 2010-03-18
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,2 2010-01-31 0,2 2009-12-31 2010-03-18
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,4 2010-01-31 101,5 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 73,6 2010-02-28 74,4 2010-01-31 2010-03-12
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) -20 2010-01-31 -150 2009-12-31 2010-03-05
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 18,2 2010-01-31 5,1 2009-12-31 2010-03-12
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 2,5 2010-01-31 1,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 84,3 2009-12-31 83,1 2009-11-30
Manufacturing PMI 52,5 2010-02-28 52,5 2010-01-31
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -0,4 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 1,1 2009-12-31 2009-09-30 2010-03-11
CPI (%, YoY) -1,8 2010-02-28 -2,1 2010-01-31 2010-03-26
CPI (%, MoM) -0,2 2010-01-31 -0,2 2009-12-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,5 2010-01-31 102,1 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence 39,4 2010-01-31 37,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-15
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 18,5 2009-12-31 19,2 2009-11-30 2010-03-11
Manufacturing PMI 52,0 2010-02-28 55,8 2010-01-31 2010-03-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 10,7 2009-12-31 9,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-15
CPI (%, YoY) 1,5 2010-01-31 1,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,1 2009-12-31 103,2 2009-11-30
Consumer confidence 103,9 2009-12-31 103,3 2009-11-30
Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 30,1 2009-12-31 33,4 2009-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,1 2009-12-31 102,2 2009-11-30
Global manufacturing PMI 56,1 2010-01-31 54,6 2009-12-31
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=

NT
SEB Commodity Research

=PERFORMANCE
=
=
Monthly YTD 1m 1q 1y 5y
closing (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
(100226)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1110,94 -5,5 3,7 -1,5 35,7 63,1
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1046,82 -5,6 3,7 -1,5 35,5 41,8
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1284,53 -5,2 3,9 -0,5 46,9 84,8
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1285,96 -5,2 4,9 -0,7 47,9 52,6
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1062,71 -5,0 5,9 4,2 84,2 90,5
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1617,41 -1,0 3,1 -6,2 20,3 151,7
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1353,68 -7,4 1,2 -4,9 21,9 85,1
Baltic Dry Index 2738,00 -12,8 -3,9 -29,6 40,4 -42,6

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 79,66 -2,3 9,3 3,1 76,2 54,7
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 77,59 -3,2 8,6 -1,1 66,8 56,4
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2108,00 -5,8 2,7 3,6 57,8 10,5
Copper (LME, $/t) 7175,00 -4,0 6,6 3,9 106,4 117,3
Nickel (LME, $/t) 21113,00 11,5 14,5 29,1 111,2 30,6
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2174,50 -14,6 4,0 -5,4 94,2 58,8
Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 445,00 6,0 4,5 -10,1 53,4
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 445,50 9,3 8,4 15,6 45,1
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1118,90 0,1 3,3 -5,3 18,7 156,6
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 378,00 -9,7 6,0 -6,1 4,4 78,7
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 506,50 -9,2 6,9 -10,7 -1,5 56,7
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 951,00 -9,4 4,0 -10,3 9,4 59,2
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS
=
=
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 12 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report March 10 www.opec.org
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP March 10 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report March 25 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria March 17 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST, SEB COMMODITIES
=
=
Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Mikael Nordström Head of Commodities mikael.nordstrom@seb.se +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
SALES
Arne Boberg Head of Sales arne.boberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Charlotte Aleblad Corporate Sales charlotte.aleblad@seb.se +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Magnus Wallenbert Corporate Sales magnus.wallenbert@seb.se +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40
TRADING
Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading stefan.fastesson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30
Mats Forsell Trader mats.forsell@seb.se +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Mats Hedberg Trader mats.hedberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Karin Almgren Broker karin.almgren@seb.se +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst christian.ekstrand@seb.se +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
=

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