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RICE BULLETIN

First part of the 2008 campaign


Date: 01/08/2008

Vol. 4, No 1

Decrease in acreage is leading to a 3.5% decrease in rice


production compared to 2007 at EU-27 level
Highlights

Following a trend already discussed for the last campaign, rice production at EU-27 level is forecasted to
be lower than the last year because of a reduction in the surfaces, which are lower than those recorded
in 2007 in almost all the countries; the only exceptions are Portugal and Romania.

MARS yield forecast


RICE (t/ha)
Country

EU-27
Bulgaria
Spain
France
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Portugal
Romania

2007*

MARS 2008
forecasts

Avg 5yrs

%08/07

%08/5yrs

6.52
4.64
7.22
5.35
7.81
3.66
6.42
6.09
3.49

6.54
4.91
7.16
5.47
8.12
3.81
6.46
5.91
3.62

6.55
4.54
7.15
5.58
7.74
3.64
6.43
5.79
3.36

0.3
5.9
-0.9
2.3
4.0
4.2
0.6
-3.0
3.8

-0.2
8.3
0.1
-1.8
4.9
4.7
0.5
2.0
7.8

* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos: last update 2008-07-22

At EU-27 level, an average season is expected: yields are forecasted to be slightly lower
than the average (-0.2%) although higher than
the last year ones (+0.3%).
Among the main producers, forecasts are lower
than the last year in Spain (7.16 t/ha, -0.9%)
and Portugal (5.91 t/ha, -3.0%).
A good potential is shown for Greece, whose yield
(8.12 t/ha) is forecasted to be higher both than
2007 and than the average (respectively +4.0%
and +4.9%).
A good season is depicted for the eastern countries: 3.81 t/ha for Hungary (+4.2% compared to
the last year), 3.62 t/ha for Romania (+3.8%),
and 4.91 t/ha for Bulgaria (+5.9%). The latter
could have experienced problems during the pollens development because of a cold shock.
Favorable conditions for blast disease development verified in north eastern Italy.

Editorial staff: R. Confalonieri, A.S. Rosenmund, D. Fanchini, L. Nisini, A. Klisch, B. Baruth Agriculture Unit Agri4cast /JRC.
Data production: Agriculture Unit Agri4cast /JRC and Alterra (NL), Meteoconsult (NL), MeteoFrance (Fr).
Pag. 1

Agrometeorological analysis

ITALY: Good conditions are simulated in the


main rice districts
Although global radiation values have been sensibly lower than long term average, CNDVI profiles
show satisfying conditions especially for the western part of the main Italian rice district. In
Lombardia a longer heat wave (from the 20th of
June to the 15th of July) could have stressed especially early sown rice which was in the preheading phase. Possible problems related to blast
infection can be expected in the areas close to the
Po delta. The sub-optimal irradiative levels experienced by the crop could have lowered the accumulation of biomass. The crop is in the last part of
the vegetative phase.

LOMBARDIA - (IT)

FRANCE: A suboptimal canopy development


could affect final yield
Temperatures higher than average were recorded
since the beginning of the season. However, in
Languedoc, abrupt night temperature falls (not related to storm events) were registered on 4th, 8th,
14th and 21th of July (respectively 11.8 C, 11.4
C, 11.7 C and 12.1 C) which in some cases could
lead to yield losses due to spikelet sterility.
Models are simulating leaf area index values lower
than the average, although the crop should not be
affected by suboptimal radiation interception in
most of the cases since the canopy is already
closed (LAI>3).
France

m2/m2

Minimum daily temperatures (C)

Leaf Area Index

22

LTA
+2 StDev

+2Stdev
6

-2 StDev

18
Average
(1975-2006)

14

2006
2007

2008
-2Stdev

10

6
0

2
01-May

01-Jun

01-Jul

May

30-Jul

June

July

August

September

October

source: JRC-MARS database

Source: JRC-MARS database

SPAIN: Insufficient water availability led to a


reduction in surfaces
In Catalua temperatures were consistently higher
than average ones in the last three decades. In
Andalucia, conditions have been similar to those
experienced during the last year. A considerable
reduction in surfaces can be expected as a consequence of the insufficient water availability. Extreme values of minimum daily temperature
(above the long term average plus twice the standard deviation for many days) were recorded during the last two months. These suboptimal conditions, enhanced by salinization problems, are confirmed by CNDVI profiles, which show even a significant delay in sowing dates.

PORTUGAL: The crop is recovering after


slightly suboptimal conditions experienced
during the tillering phase
The analysis of CNDVI profiles related to the
Centro region shows a good start of the season
but the complete lack of rainfalls which has been
characterizing the country since the start of June
could have affected the crop where the water reservoir were insufficient. A delay in the sowing
dates is noticeable in the Alentejo region.
Simulating total biomass is slightly below the average because of the suboptimal canopy development during the tillering phase.

100

ANDALUCIA - (ES)

ALENTEJO - (PT)

mm

Daily Rainfall

Cumulated rain
------ Current period
------ Average (1975-2006)

8
RAIN (mm)
SNOW (cm)

50

0
01-Jun

0
01-May

01-Jun

01-Jul

30-Jul

Source: JRC-MARS database

01-Jul

30-Jul
Source: JRC-MARS database

Editorial staff: R. Confalonieri, A.S. Rosenmund, D. Fanchini, L. Nisini, A. Klisch, B. Baruth Agriculture Unit Agri4cast /JRC.
Data production: Agriculture Unit Agri4cast /JRC and Alterra (NL), Meteoconsult (NL), MeteoFrance (Fr).
Pag. 2

GREECE: exceptional high temperatures recorded


The thermal conditions were decidedly high and
boosted the crop development leading to a significant advance. Exceptionally high daily minima
were recorded at the end of June (23.9C on the
29th of June). If this has not affected the early
sown crops, a good season is expected.

ROMANIA: The optimal canopy development


has favored high biomass accumulation rates
The high temperatures recorded since the start of
the season especially in the Sud-Est region are
leading to a 10-day advance in crop development.
Precipitations have been spare in the Sud-Vest region with the exception of a stormy event occurred
on the 22 of July (47.2 mm). The model is simulating a good potential.

KENTRIKI MAKEDONIA - (GR)


Minimum daily temperatures (C)

Romania

m2/m2

24
+2Stdev

Average
(1975-2006)

Leaf Area Index

20
16

LTA
+2 StDev
-2 StDev

-2Stdev

12

2006
2007

2008

8
2

4
01-May

01-Jun

30-Jul

01-Jul

Source: JRC-MARS database

May

June

July

August

Panicles biomass

10000

-2 StDev
2006
2007

6000

2008

4000

October

HUNGARY: warm and wet conditions characterized the first part of the season
Precipitations have been quite abundant in the
eastern regions and well distributed. Temperatures
have been considerably higher than the long term
average during the whole period of interest. According to the model, the advance in development
should not have penalized the canopy development: a good season is expected.

LTA
+2 StDev

8000

September

source: JRC-MARS database

Greece

kg/ha

2000

May

June

July

August

September

October

Hungary

kg/ha

source: JRC-MARS database

Development Stage

400

BULGARIA: a good potential is shown


In general, during the whole period of analysis,
temperatures were coherent with the long term
average but on the 25th of July an abrupt night
temperature fall (11.3C) was recorded. This could
have led to spikelet sterility because of damages
to the developing pollens. Although rainfalls were
well distributed irradiance levels were decidedly
above the average. Despite the induced advance
in development, satisfactory values of the variables describing crop growth are simulated.

LTA
+2 StDev

300

-2 StDev
2006
2007

200

2008
100

May

June

July

August

September

October

source: JRC-MARS database

YUZHEN - (BG)

Cumulated solar radiation (kJ/m2d)

1,600,000
1,400,000

------ Current period


------ Average (1975-2006)

Next bulletin
The next rice bulletin will be issued on September
26.

1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000

Bulletins from the previous years can be found under:


http://mars.jrc.it/marsstat/Bulletins/2005.htm,
http://mars.jrc.it/marsstat/Bulletins/2006.htm and
http:/mars.jrc.it/marsstat/Bulletins/2007.htm

400,000
200,000
0

01-May

01-Jun

01-Jul

30-Jul

Source: JRC-MARS database

Editorial staff: R. Confalonieri, A.S. Rosenmund, D. Fanchini, L. Nisini, A. Klisch, B. Baruth Agriculture Unit Agri4cast /JRC.
Data production: Agriculture Unit Agri4cast /JRC and Alterra (NL), Meteoconsult (NL), MeteoFrance (Fr).
Pag. 3