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2
RAINFALL FOR DESIGNING
URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEMS
Rainfall is the amount of liquid precipitating in the form of rain. A rainfall event takes
place over a period of time during which measurable rainfall occurs. The length of
this period, which is preceded and followed by periods of no measurable rainfall, is
called rainfall duration. In other words, rainfall duration is the time elapsed from
start to end of the rainfall event (Ponce 1986).We sometimes refer to a rainfall event
as a storm and rainfall duration as storm duration.
The total depth or depth of rainfall is the depth to which the rainwater would
accumulate if it stayed where it fell on the ground. The rainfall intensity refers to
the time rate of rainfall. The average intensity is equal to the total depth of rainfall
divided by the storm duration.
Normally, intensity varies throughout the storm duration, and a plot of rainfall
intensity versus time is called a hyetograph. A hyetograph can be a continuous curve
as in Figure 2.la or in the form of a discrete histogram as shown in Figure 2.lb.
In these figures i = rainfall intensity and t = time. Sometimes, the cumulative
rainfall is plotted as a function of time in dimensional form as in Figure 2.2a or in
5
1.4-
1.2.
>
'=: 1.0.
.-c
1.41.2.
1.0.
0.8.
'jj 0.8.
C
- 0.4.
0.6.
0.2.
0.2.
__
__
0.6.
0.4.
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1'.00 1'.25 1'.50 1'.75 2.00 2.25
000 0 2 5 0 5 0 0 7 5 1 0 0 1 2 5 1 5 0 1 7 5 2 0 0
Time (hr)
Time (hr)
1.o
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
t (hr)
1.o
0.8
0.6
ct
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
ufd
1.oo
24-hr rainfall
.-
.-C
1-hr rainfall
30-min rainfall
1"
50
100
150
200
250
300
Example 2.1
Consider the rainfall hyetograph given in Figure 2.lb. Determine the total depth
and average rainfall intensity. Also, prepare a plot of cumulative rainfall versus
time in dimensional form and dimensionless form.
Columns 1 and 2 in Table 2.1 are a tabular representation of the given hyetograph. For example, the intensity is 0.2 i n h r between t = 0 and 0.25 hr. During
this time increment of At = (0.25 - 0) hr = 0.25 hr, an incremental rainfall of
A P = (0.2 in./hr)(0.25 hr) = 0.05 in. is produced. We calculate all the entries
in column 3 in the same manner. The total depth of rainfall PT is equal to the
sum of all the A P ' s in column 3, and equals 1.2 in. Also, the duration fd is 2 hr.
Therefore, the average intensity becomes (1.2 in.)/(2 hr) = 0.6 in./hr.
(hr)
i (idhr)
A P (in.)
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.10
0.8
0.20
1.2
0.30
1.o
0.25
0.6
0.15
0.4
0.10
0.2
0.05
P (in.)
tltd
Plq.
0.05
0.125
0.041
0.15
0.250
0.125
0.35
0.375
0.250
0.65
0.500
0.542
0.90
0.625
0.750
1.05
0.750
0.875
1.15
0.875
0.958
1.20
1.000
1.000
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.oo
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.2
Rainfall events are difficult to predict accurately by deterministic models. Their occurrence is uncertain, and the rainfall depth and duration are highly variable in time
and space. In hydrology, we treat rainfall events as random events, and we use probabilistic methods to determine the likelihood of their occurrence.
2.2.1
at a specified location are expected to produce a depth of 3.0 in. or more over a 24-hr
period four times during the next 100 years, then the return period of a 24-hr, 3.0in. rainfall at this location is 100/4 = 25 years. We can alternatively state that the
25-year, 24-hr rainfall is 3.0 in.
The exceedence probability p is defined as the probability that a rainfall event
with a specified duration and depth will be equaled or exceeded in any one year. This
probability is equal to the inverse of the return period Tr, that is,
p = -
1
Tr
for T, > 1. (Probability is a dimensionless number that is always greater than zero
and smaller than one.) If the 25-year, 24-hr rainfall is 3.0 in., then there is a 1/25 =
0.04 = 4% probability that a depth of 3.0 in. or higher will be produced over a 24-hr
period in any given year. Note that we are treating the rainfall events as being purely
random. In other words, if a 25-year event has already been exceeded this year, the
probability that it will be exceeded again next year is still 4%.
Rainfall events are often used as the basis for determining the design capacity of
a stormwater structure. Because of the probabilistic nature of rainfall, however, there
is always some chance that the design capacity of the structure will be exceeded.
In other words, there is a hydrologic risk associated with any design. This risk is
commonly defined as the probability that the design event will be exceeded one time
or more during the service life of the structure. We can calculate the hydrologic risk
as
$)
J = 1 - (1 where
J = hydrologic risk,
TI = return period of the event used as a basis for design, and
N = service life of the stormwater structure.
Example 2.2
A highway culvert is designed to convey a 25-year storm. Determine the hydrologic risk of this design if the expected service life of the culvert is 30 years.
From Equation 2.2,
J=l-
1--
,>,O
=0.71=71%
Example 2.3
Consider the culvert in the example above. What return period should be used as
a basis for design if the allowed hydrologic risk is 0.10 (or lo%)?
10
Solving for T,, we obtain Tr = 285 years. In practice, for economic reasons, we
use a return period of 2-50 years in designing stormwater structures that allow
hydrologic risks much higher than 10%. Therefore, flooding from a stormwater
structure, such as a culvert or a street inlet, does not always mean that the structure
was improperly designed.
2.2.2
Frequency Analysis
We use frequency analysis procedures in hydrology to derive meaningful information from historical data. For example, we can analyze the discharge measurements
at a river location to determine the return periods associated with the different magnitudes of the discharge at that location. A rainfall event is characterized with a depth
and duration. Therefore, a frequency analysis of rainfall aims to determine the return periods associated with different magnitudes of the rainfall depth for a specified
duration.
The first step in a frequency analysis is to reduce the historical rainfall records
to an annual maximum series of rainfall depths for the duration selected. An annual
maximum depth is the greatest depth of rainfall that has occurred during the year
for a given duration. We should note that by duration, we do not necessarily mean
the full duration of historic storms. For example, the actual full duration of a historic
storm may be 42 min, while we are interested in the frequency analysis of 30-min
storms. Suppose the rainfall depth produced during a 30-min portion of this 42-min
storm is larger than that produced over any other 30-min duration during the year.
Then we will use the rainfall during the 30-min portion of the 42-min storm as the
annual maximum 30-min depth for this particular year.
The next step is to fit a probability distribution to the annual maximum series thus
obtained. Various probability distributions are available for analyzing hydrological
data. Strictly speaking, we should evaluate the goodness of fit of a probability distribution to a particular data series by using a statistical test such as a chi-square
test. However, these tests are beyond the scope of this text. Furthermore, experience
shows that the extreme value type I distribution, also known as the Gumbel distribution, fits most rainfall data well. Therefore, this distribution is often used in practice
for frequency analysis of rainfall data.
For a given rainfall duration id, we can express the maximum rainfall depths as
Pr
= PTM K s
where
(2.3)
11
10
25
50
100
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
75
100
0.967
0.919
0.888
0.866
0.851
0.838
0.829
0.820
0.792
0.779
0.719
1.703
1.625
1.575
1.541
1.516
1.495
1.478
1.466
1.423
1.401
1.305
2.632
2.517
2.444
2.393
2.354
2.326
2.303
2.283
2.220
2.187
2.044
3.321
3.179
3.088
3.026
2.979
2.943
2.913
2.889
2.812
2.770
2.592
4.005
3.836
3.729
3.653
3.598
3.554
3.520
3.491
3.400
3.349
3.137
00
Source: Statistical Methods in Hydrology by C . T. Haan, 0 1 9 1 7 , Iowa State University Press. Used with
permission.
C Pj
n
(2.4)
where Pj = maximum annual depth for the jth year, and j changes from 1 to n.
Example 2.4
A 25-year annual maximum series of 15-min storm depths is given in decreasing
order in column 2 of Table 2.3. Determine the 15-min storm depths and average
intensities associated with return periods of 5, 10, 25,50, and 100 years. Assume
that the extreme value type I distribution fits the annual maximum series.
12
fd
= 15 min
td =
30 min
Pj
(in.)
Pj
(in.)
p~~
P,d2
(in* j
rd =
min
120 min
Pj
(in.)
pi
(in.)
0.985
0.628
0.413
0.263
0.154
2.80
2.55
2.20
2.00
1.90
1.775
1.172
0.536
0.283
0.187
3.20
2.80
2.60
2.47
2.40
2.027
1.048
0.678
0.481
0.389
1.55
1.40
1.35
1.26
1.20
0.436
0.260
0.212
0.137
0.096
2.20
2.00
1.85
1.72
1.60
1.16
1.10
1.05
1.01
0.97
0.073
0.044
0.026
0.014
0.006
1.53
1.47
1.40
1.34
1.28
0.104
0.069
0.037
0.018
0.005
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.52
1.48
0.1 10
0.054
0.018
0.003
0.000
2.29
2.18
2.07
2.00
1.90
0.264
0.163
0.086
0.050
0.015
0.92
0.88
0.86
0.82
0.80
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.005
0.008
1.24
1.20
1.14
1.09
1.04
0.001
0.000
0.005
0.014
0.028
1.43
1.40
1.35
1.29
1.25
0.001
0.005
0.014
0.032
0.047
1.81
1.71
1.64
1.60
1.53
0.001
0.004
0.019
0.03 1
0.061
0.75
0.71
0.68
0.65
0.60
0.020
0.032
0.044
0.058
0.084
1 .00
0.95
0.90
0.86
0.82
0.043
0.066
0.095
0.121
0.150
1.21
1.18
1.16
1.12
1.08
0.066
0.083
0.095
0.121
0.150
I .46
1.40
1.35
I .29
1.22
0.100
0.142
0.182
0.237
0.310
0.56
0.53
0.50
0.48
0.46
0.109
0.130
0.152
0.168
0.185
0.78
0.74
0.7 1
0.68
0.65
0.183
0.2 19
0.248
0.278
0.3 11
1.05
1 .OO
0.93
0.86
0.83
0.174
0.219
0.289
0.369
0.407
1.16
1.09
1.07
1.06
0.380
0.444
0.47 1
0.499
0.5 13
22.25
2.300
'0.19
4.436
86.69
6.210
.4.41
8.594
1.20:
(in.) 0.89C
s (in.)
P,
td = 60
0.310
1.461
0.430
1.11
1.71t
0.509
0.598
We first calculate the mean and the standard deviation of the annual maximum depths by using Equations 2.4 and 2.5. Tabular calculations summarized in
columns 2 and 3 of Table 2.3 yield PTM = 0.89 in. and s = 0.31 in. We will
use Table 2.2 to pick the frequency factors. In this table, n = 25 since the annual
maximum series contains 25 values. Then for the return periods of T, = 5 , 10,
25, 50, and 100 years, the frequency factors are obtained from Table 2.2 as 0.888,
1.575, 2.444, 3.088, and 3.729. respectively. Now, we can use Equation 2.3 to
determine the 15-min, 5-year depth as
PT = 0.89
13
4. = 0.89 + (1.575)(0.31)
= 1.38 in.
We calculate the rainfall depths corresponding to return periods of 25, 50, and
100 years in the same manner as being 1.65, 1.85, and 2.04 in., respectively.
To find an average intensity, we divide the rainfall depth by the duration. In this
example the duration is 15 min = 0.25 hr. Then by dividing the calculated Ps by
0.25 hr, we obtain the average intensities of 4.66, 5.51,6.59,7.38, and 8.18 in./hr,
respectively, for the return periods of 5, 10,25,50, and 100 years.
2.2.3 Intensity-Duration-Return Period Curves
The probabilistic relationships between the average rainfall intensity, duration, and
return period are usually presented in graphical form as shown in Figure 2.4 for
Norfolk, Virginia. These curves are often referred to as intensity-duration-frequency
(IDF) curves. A visual inspection of the IDF curves will reveal that an infinite number
of rainfall events with different average intensity and duration can have the same
return period. Moreover, for a specified return period, the average intensity decreases
as the duration increases. As expected, for the same duration, the average intensity
is higher for longer return periods.
Frequency analysis methods are used to develop the IDF curves. First, the annual
maximum rainfall depths corresponding to various durations are extracted from the
local historical rainfall data. Then a frequency analysis of annual maximum depths
is performed for each duration as discussed in the preceding section. The results
i
.F
20.00
15.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
2a,
a:88
0.60
0.40
0.20
.-E:
0o:a
0.06
0.04
0.02
FIGURE 2.4. IDF curves for Norfolk, Virginia. After VDOT (1980).
14
~~
td = 15 min
td = 30 min
TI
(years) K
5
10
25
50
100
0.888
1.575
2.444
3.088
3.729
s = 0.430 in.
-
td = 60 min
td = 120 min
f i =~1.468 in. PTM= 1.776 in.
s = 0.509 in.
-
s = 0.598 in.
(in.)
i
(in.kr)
P
(in.)
i
Whr)
P
(in.)
(in./hr)
1.59
1.89
2.26
2.54
2.81
3.18
3.77
4.52
5.07
5.62
1.92
2.27
2.71
3.04
3.36
1.92
2.27
2.71
3.04
3.36
2.31
2.72
3.24
3.62
4.01
1.15
1.36
1.62
1.81
2.00
(in.)
(in./hr)
1.17
1.38
1.65
1.85
2.04
4.66
5.51
6.59
7.38
8.18
are then plotted in the form of the IDF curves. Sometimes an annual exceedence
series rather than an annual maximum series is employed. For example, an annual
exceedence series extracted from a 25-year rainfall record contains the largest 25
values measured during this 25-year period. It is possible that more than one value
in this series would come from the same year while the series may not contain any
values from some of the years included in the 25-year period.
IDF curves are readily available for most major cities, and they can be found
in local drainage manuals and ordinances. In the absence of local IDF curves and
rainfall records, the regional relationships, such as those developed by Hershfield
(1961) can be used.
Example 2.5
The annual maximum rainfall depths are available for a 25-year period for 1 5 ,
30-, 60-, and 120-min durations. These depths are tabulated in decreasing order
of magnitude in columns 2,4, 6, and 8 of Table 2.3 for the durations shown. We
are to develop the IDF curves for this location.
In Example 2.4, we performed a frequency analysis of the annual maximum
depths for the 15-min duration. To obtain the IDF curves, the same procedure is
applied to the annual maximum data for the other durations being considered. The
calculations are summarized in Tables 2.3 and 2.4, and the results are plotted in
Figure 2.5.
2.2.4
IDF relationships can also be expressed in equation form. For a specified return period, two commonly used forms are
a
i=td
-k b
DESIGN RAINFALL
<.-
15
c
.cn
76-
a,
5-
4-
.-c
sf
a9 3 -
2101
0
15
30
45
60
75
Duration (min)
90
105
120
and
or
- 20.2
i=-
(2.9)
16
A properly designed project is expected to pass the design runoff at full capacity. If
the design runoff is exceeded, a project may fail. A failure does not necessarily mean
physical collapse of a structure; rather it means that the project fails to function as
intended. For instance, if the stormwater runoff exceeds the design discharge of a
culvert placed under a roadway, it is likely that the water will back up and overtop
the embankment (i.e, flood the roadway). Even without any structural damage, this
would be considered a failure for the culvert.
Measured historical runoff data are generally unavailable to help determine design
runoff events. (Stream gages are expensive and relatively scarce in urban areas.)
However, rainfall data are more widely available. Therefore, to formulate a design
runoff event we first need to convert rainfall data to runoff data by using a rainfallrunoff model.
2.3.1
Frequency
analysis
Design
rainfall
Frequency
analysis
Design
runoff
Rainfal I-runoff
model
Design
runoff
DESIGN RAINFALL
17
important. For example, this approach would determine and take into account a detention basin that is partly full at the time the next storm arrives. However, to benefit
from the continuous simulation approach fully, we need to employ a sophisticated
rainfall-runoff model. Such models are difficult to apply, because they are very data
intensive. Moreover, noting that a chronological rainfall record may span several
decades and includes hundreds of storms, the simulation can be time-consuming,
especially when small computational time increments are required to ensure the accuracy of results.
In the single-event approach, we first analyze the historical rainfall record statistically. The output will be the IDF relationships we will use to select a design rainfall.
Then we input the design rainfall to a rainfall-runoff model to obtain a design runoff.
This approach is much simpler since it only involves simulating the rainfall-runoff
process for a single storm event. Moreover, the rainfall-runoff model employed can
be simpler than that of continuous simulation since moisture accounting is not required. On the other hand, we would have to assume the antecedent condition of the
watershed preceding the design rainfall.
There are also hybrid methods based on continuous rainfall records obtained synthetically by using selected single rainfall events. Generally, however, the continuous
simulation approach is time-consuming and costly, and it requires extensive watershed data to warrant its use. The single-event design-storm method is much simpler
and is widely used in practice.
We characterize a single-event design storm in terms of a return period, storm
duration, depth (or average intensity), spatial distribution, and temporal distribution.
The sections to follow will discuss how to select these different characteristics.
Next Page
18
100-year runoff event. The required design return periods for specific projects can
often be found in the local drainage manuals or regulations.
2.3.3
The design-storm duration depends on the type of project. Storm sewers and culverts
are sized to convey peak flows. Thus, the design-storm duration must be the one that
tends to cause the largest peak discharge for a given return period. For detention
basins, the duration causing the largest detention volume is the most critical. Generally, the critical storm duration is determined after trying several values and studying
how the storm duration affects the peak discharge and/or the detention volume.
IDF curves depict the relationships between the average intensity (or depth), duration, and the return period as discussed in Section 2.2.3. After selecting the design
return period and storm duration, the average intensity is obtained from the local
intensity-duration-return period curves. Obviously, the storm depth is equal to the
product of duration and average intensity.
2.4
Various standard dimensionless and semidimensional hyetographs describe the temporal distribution of rainfall o\er the storm duration. After the design return period,
duration, and depth are selected as discussed in the preceding sections, we can employ one of these standard temporal distributions to construct a design hyetograph.
2.4.1
The Soil Conservation Service' (SCS).deLeloped four synthetic 2 4 h r rainfall distributions. types I, IA, 11. and 111. representing \ arious geographic regions of the United
'The Soil Conservation S e n ice i \ no\\ cLillstlthe tiattirial Rewurces Conhenation S e n ice (NRCS).
Hone\er. the mrthodolopiea presented \till so b! the old t i m e .
Next Page
CONSTRUCTION OF DESIGN-STORM HYETOGRAPHS
19
FIGURE 2.7. Geographic boundaries for SCS rainfall distributions. After SCS (1986).
States as shown in Figure 2.7. These four distributions are tabulated in Table 2.5 and
displayed in Figure 2.8 in a semidimensional form where t = time, & = total
depth of rainfall, and P = rainfall depth accumulated up to time t . Note that the design storm lasts for 24 hr. However, the shorter and more intense rainfalls are nested
within the 24-hr duration, and therefore these distributions are appropriate for both
small and large watersheds (SCS 1986).
The SCS distributions are widely used in engineering practice. They are built into
various operational rainfall-runoff models, such as TR-20 (SCS 1982), SCSHYDRO
(Akan and Paine 1993), and HEC-HMS (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2000).
Example 2.6
Suppose the IDF curves of a project site indicate that the average intensity of
a 10-year, 24-hr storm is 0.21 in./hr. Construct a 10-year, type I1 design storm
hyetograph.
By definition, I+ = (0.21 in./hr)(24 hrs) = 5.0 in. The calculations to construct the storm hyetograph are summarized in Table 2.6 using constant time increments of At = t2 - t l = 0.5 hr. The subscripts 1 and 2 in the table correspond
to the beginning and the end of the time interval being considered. The entries in
columns 3 and 4 are obtained directly from Table 2.5. The entries in column 5
represent the cumulative rainfall at the respective times shown in column 1. Noting that P = (&) ( P / P T ) , the entries in column 5 are obtained by multiplying
the respective entries in column 3 by 5.0 in. The entries in column 6 are calculated in the same manner by multiplying entries in column 4 by 5.0 in. For
example, for the time increment between tl = 0.5 hr and t;! = 1.0 hr, we have
P1 = (0.005)(5in.) = 0.025 in. and P2 = (0.011)(5 in.) = 0.055 in. Then A P =