Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Volume 5 No. 1
March 2015
Editorial Board
Editorial Board
Editor in Chief
Prof. Dr. Jos Antnio Filipe, Instituto Universitrio de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL),
Lisboa, Portugal
Managing Editor
Prof. Dr. Sofia Lopes Portela, Instituto Universitrio de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL),
Lisboa, Portugal
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Table of Contents
1. Space matters: Reconstructing a Localscale Okun's Law for Italy .............................. 833
Luca Salvati
3. Conclusion of a Probabilistic Model to Evaluate Motorcars Recycling and
Dismantling Process in a Scarce Oil Environment ........................................................... 846
4. Loan Products and Credit Scoring by Commercial Banks (India) ............................... 851
5. Efficiency in Stock Markets with DEA: Evidence from PSI20 .............................. 861
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Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l'analisi dell'economia agraria (CRA), Via della Navicella 2-4, I-00184
Rome, Italy
1
luca.salvati@entecra.it
1.
Introduction
____________________________________________________________________________________
International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance & Economic Sciences
IJLTFES, EISSN: 20470916
Copyright ExcelingTech, Pub, UK (http://excelingtech.co.uk/)
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2.
Methodology
(1)
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(2)
3.
(a)
(b)
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dealing with Okun's relationship (ranging between 0.2 and -0.3) and closer to values recorded for recent
decades (Lee, 2000; Freeman, 2001; Harris and
Silverstone, 2001).
District product (% change) = 0.033 - 0.028 * Unemployment rate (% change)
Pearson correlation: r = -0.107; Spearman correlation: rs = -0.104, p < 0.01
400
X: Unemployment rate
Mean = 0,021209
Std.Dv. = 0,153612
Max. = 0,620913
Min. = -0,390049
Y: District product
Mean = 0,032940
Std.Dv. = 0,040068
Max. = 0,166819
Min. = -0,174195
200
0
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,2
-0,3
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0 0
200
400
(c)
Figure 1. Maps illustrating the spatial distribution of
(a) percent change in district product (b), percent
change in unemployment rate and (c) elasticity
between district product and unemployment rate.
The elasticity between percent growth in district
product and unemployment rate shows a
heterogeneous spatial pattern: highly positive
elasticity values (indicating unemployment increases
with product expansion) were scattered across Italy
especially in northern and central districts. Highly
negative elasticity values (indicating employment
increases with product expansion) were found in a
discontinuous pattern in rural areas in both central
and southern Italy with few cases observed also in
northern Italy. The spatially-varying elasticity score
indicates that the two variables are space-dependent.
Figure 2 illustrates descriptive statistics on the
relationship between percent changes in district
product and unemployment rate in Italy. Both
variables show a quasi-normal distribution and a
general trend toward a moderate, negative correlation
identified in both parametric field (r = 0.107, p <
0.01, df = 685) and non-parametric field (rs = 0.104, p
< 0.01, n = 686). Based on the linear model (1), the
estimated regression coefficient for percent change in
district product in Italy is -0.028 with 0.033 intercept.
The intercept coincides with the average growth rate
of district product; the regression coefficient is
relatively lower than the values observed in the
classical post-war studies (Smith, 1975; Gordon,
1984; Kaufman, 1988; Evans, 1989; Palley, 1993)
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(c)
(a)
(d)
(b)
Figure 3. Maps illustrating the outcomes of the
Geographically Weighted Regression model applied
to the relationship between local product and
unemployment rate in the 686 Italian districts (20042005): (a) local R2 (b), 1 coefficient, (c) 0 intercept,
(d) model's residuals.
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4.
Conclusions
The present study provides insights in the localscale Okun's relationship between district income and
unemployment rate in Italy. Asymmetry and regional
disparities in income and labour market performances
were found as relevant factors influencing short-term
Okun's relationship in a divided country such as Italy
(King et al., 2001; Dunford and Greco, 2007; Viesti
et al., 2011). A moderate coefficient was observed for
the negative relationship between changes in district
product and unemployment rate. However, the
relationship became more intense and significant
when incorporating space in the regression model.
The different conditions of the labour market,
distinguishing between northern-central regions and
southern regions in terms of both participation and
unemployment rate may be considered a powerful
factor determining asymmetry in Okun's relationship.
The outcomes of GWR model reflect the spatial
variability observed in both the dependent and the
independent variables indicating a different intensity
in the relationship among district income and
unemployment rate. Higher negative coefficients,
closer to what Okun found for US economy (e.g.
Attfield and Silverstone, 1998), were observed
especially in northern and central Italy districts being
associated to a local R2 above the national average.
Positive and significant coefficients were also found
in some districts especially in southern Italy
indicating asymmetry and the structural mismatch
between supply and demand in local labour markets
reflected into high unemployment rates. In the
majority of Italian districts, the relationship between
the two studied variables showed moderate (or low)
negative coefficients and moderate (or low) local R2.
Together with the analysis of spatial elasticity
between district product and unemployment rate,
these outcomes clearly reveal the high fragmentation
of local labour markets in Italy at the base of
differential Okun's relationships between northerncentral and southern areas of the country. The
analysis underlines the different impact of policies
stimulating local development in districts exhibiting
distinct short-term responses to unemployment rate
based on product expansion or decline.
Policy implementation depend on the mutual
interactions among the drivers of economic
development acting differently at the various relevant
geographical scales (Layard et al., 1991). Indicators
made available on high-resolution spatial units and
spatial statistical techniques can be successfully
applied to the study of regional economic
performances and territorial disparities providing
insight for improved policies promoting local
development. Local labour market districts show
appreciable features that fill the need for data
integration, reliability and relevance to regional
issues. Our results definitely indicate that a stronger
integration between economic indicators is required
to achieve a more comprehensive, comparative
picture of local production structures and
performances affecting country-scale peculiar trends.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank Prof. Margherita
Carlucci for invaluable support during the study.
References
[1] Attfield, C. and Silverstone, B. (1998),
Okuns law, cointegration and gap variables,
Journal of Macroeconomics, 20, pp. 125-37.
[2] Balakrishnam, R. and Michelacci, C. (2001),
Unemployment dynamics across OECD
countries, European Economic Review, 45,
pp. 135-165.
[3] Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004),
Economic growth., MIT Press, Cambridge,
Massachusetts, USA.
[4] Brunner A.D. (1997), On the dynamic
properties of asymmetric models of real
GNP, Review of Economics and Statistics,
79, pp. 321-6.
[5] Evans
G.W.
(1989),
Output
and
Unemployment Dynamics in the United
States: 1950-1985, Journal of Applied
Econometrics, 4, pp. 213-37.
[6] Dunford, M. and Greco, L. (2007),
Geographies of growth, decline and
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jose.filipe@iscte.pt
jnchavaglia@gmail.com
3
manuel.ferreira@iscte.pt
2
1.
Introduction
____________________________________________________________________________________
International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance & Economic Sciences
IJLTFES, EISSN: 20470916
Copyright ExcelingTech, Pub, UK (http://excelingtech.co.uk/)
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2.
The
first
person
to
conceptualize
Nanotechnology was Richard P. Feynman, although
he had not used this term in his speech to the
American Physical Society on December 29, 1959,
where he made the first comments on the subject.
However, the word nanotechnology was first used
by Professor Norio Taniguchi (1974) to define the
fabrication of a scale of 1 nm. Nanotechnology is the
potential ability to create things from the smallest
element, using the techniques and tools that are being
developed today to place every atom and molecule in
place. The use of nanometer implies the existence of
a system of molecular engineering, which will likely
generate the revolution of the factory-manufacturing
model, as it is known.
Nanotechnology will offer, in addition to higher
quality products at a lower cost, a range of
possibilities to generate new means of production and
new types of resources and factors. This is a
manufacturing system that could produce more
manufacturing systems (plants that produce other
plants) in a quick, cheap and clean way. The means
of production may be reproduced exponentially. So in
just a few weeks, power would pass from a few to
several billion nanofactories. Thus represents a kind
of
revolutionary
technology,
manufacturing,
powerful, but also with many potential risks, besides
the existing and well-recognized benefits (see
Euroresidentes, 2011, p. 01).
In Brazil, the Ministry of Science and
Technologys budget for the next four years is R680
million. Overall it is estimated that only developed
countries are to allocate a sum of around USD 5.5
billion. An important example of successful
application of nanotechnology is Empresa Brasileira
de Agropecuria (Embrapa). It has been working
with nanotechnology in various research centers and
has already released some products. One of the most
notable is perhaps the electronic tongue, a device
that combines chemical sensors with nanometer-thick
with a computer program that detects flavors and
aromas and serves to control quality and certification
of wines, juices, coffees and other products ( see
DIEESE, 2008, p. 03).
There is an interesting reconfiguration of the
industrial model, directly related to the use of
nanotechnology in the various branches of economic
activities. This study gives an outline for the
manufacture of electric power, which generically
3.
Nano-photovoltaic panels as an
innovation
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Typeofenergy
CostperkWh()
Electricpowernetwork
0,12
Photovoltaics(SiliconPanel)
3,75
Photovoltaics(nanoPanel)
0,34
Costperenergytype
(Source:AdaptedfromScientificAmerican2008)
4.
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5.
Final Remarks
Bibliography
[1] Bensaude-Vincent, B. (2010). Opening the Field
of Nanoethics: Editorial Introduction to the
Special Issue on Bionanoethics, II. HYLE
International Journal for Philosophy of
Chemistry, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1-2.
[2] Cavalcanti, A. (2009). Nanorobot Invention and
Linux: The Open Technology Factor. An Open
Letter to UNO General Secretary, Melbourne,
Australia, in http://www.cannxs.org/open.pdf
[3] Chavaglia, J., Filipe, J. A., Ferreira, M. A. M. &
Coelho, M. (2012), Nanotechnology and
Processes: Nano-Photovoltaic panels as an
innovation in energy market, International
Journal of Latest Trends in Finance and
Economic Sciences 2 (3), pp.197-205.
[4] Euroresidentes
(2011).
Introduo
a
Nanotecnologia: O que Nanotecnologia.
Assessed in 26 de January 2011. Available in
www.euroresidentes.com.
[5] Ferreira, M. A. M., Filipe, J. A. & Chavaglia, J.
(2014), Nanotechnology and Processes: The
Nano-Photovoltaic Panels. Advanced Materials
Research
AMR,
837,
694-698.
doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.837.694.
Trans Tech Publications Inc. (TTP).
[6] Filipe, J. A., Ferreira, M. A. M., Coelho, M. &
Chavaglia, J. N.. Nanotechnology: Overpassing
the limits of the human being. An ethical
discussion applied to medical applications, in
Silva, N. and Costa, G. J. M. (Ed.), Ethical
Dimensions in Bio-Nanotechnology - Present
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manuel.ferreira@iscte.pt
Abstract - The M|G| queue system, at which customers
arrive according to a Poisson process at rate , is
considered in this study. Using this tool it is built a
model to analyse a situation in which motorcars arrive
at the system when getting idle, in a scarce conventional
energy ambience, and leave it as soon as they are
recycled or dismantled. Both situations are modelled
with the same purpose. The model allows concluding
that when the rhythm of dismantling and recycling of
motorcars is greater than the rate at which they become
idle, the system has a tendency to get balanced.
Keywords Motorcars, recycling, dismantling, infinite
servers queues, hazard rate function.
1.
Introduction
sources of energy.
General problems of environment have emerged
from the bad use of this kind of resources; see again
Filipe, Coelho and Ferreira (2006). Demand for
inputs by industry companies has seriously increased
for more than the two last centuries to satisfy all the
demand that has resulted either from the strong
increasing of human global population or from the
increasing level of life for an important part of the
world population. All the wastes people have made
for many decades must be overcome and it should be
know how to convert old equipment in useful
devices, when it is possible, see Ferreira, Filipe,
Coelho (2008), Ferreira et al (2008). Many kinds of
new problems will occur and it is important to know
how quickly general changes may happen, while
today societies develop new sources of energy in
order to create a new economy and a reorganized
society.
The aim of this paper is to show that motorcars
which work on the basis of oil may have an
alternative use when this conventional source of
energy collapses; or simply they may become
dismantled. In the model to be presented, through the
use of infinite servers queues, it is considered that too
many motorcars will become idle if conventional
energy misses or even when conventional energy
becomes replaced by a renewable one. Motorcars
dismantle or recycling will become very usual
because there will not be a way to get them functional
with conventional oil, since the moment it gets
depleted.
It will be stated that it is essentially relevant the
cadence at which the recycling and dismantling
actions are performed, being important in this
analysis the service hazard rate function, see Ross
____________________________________________________________________________________
International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance & Economic Sciences
IJLTFES, EISSN: 20470916
Copyright ExcelingTech, Pub, UK (http://excelingtech.co.uk/)
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(1983).
In this paper it is retrieved the work presented in
Ferreira, Filipe, Coelho (2008), Ferreira et al (2011),
Ferreira et al (2008). It is completed in the part of the
model rising and enlarged in the economic analysis.
2.
The Model
by:
(1).
n 0,1,2,...
So, the transient distribution, when the system is
initially empty, is Poisson with mean 0t 1 G v dv .
The stationary distribution is the limit distribution:
t
n!
e , n 0,1,2,...
(2).
.
It is easy to check that
lim p1'n t
t
n
n!
e , n 0,1,2,...
(4).
ht
g t
1 G t
(5)
ht , t 0
(6)
t 1 G v dv
t
0
1 G v dv
0
p 0 n t
e
,
n!
lim p 0 n t
Obs.:
If the rate at which the services end is
greater or equal than the customers
arrivals rate, p1'0 t is non- decreasing.
(7).
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the distributions
n1
n1
n1
the
same
to
dismantling. Call
the hazard rate
dismantling when
the
j0
1' , t 1 G t 1 G v dv
t
(8).
Proposition 2:
If G t 1 , t 0 continuous and differentiable and
ht , t 0
(9)
Dem.:
It is enough to note, according to (5),
d
that 1' , t 1 G t ht .
dt
Obs.:
-If the rate at which the services end is lesser or
equal than the customers arrivals rate, 1' , t is nondecreasing.
-For the M|M| system (9) is equivalent to
means
(10).
,
with
It is interesting dismantling if
3.
If
Cost-Benefit Analysis
.
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If
means
,
with
. It is not
and
and
with values
, respectively, it is obtained
-
Recycling is interesting if
Dismantling is interesting if
where
If
being
respective
means,
(17)
becomes
and (18)
References
[1] Kelly, F. P. (1979) Reversibility and Stochastic
Networks. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
4.
Conclusions
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DOI:
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rais.ahmad.itoo@gmail.com
2
aselvarasu@gmail.com
3
jose.filipe@iscte.pt
1.
Introduction
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2A
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2 Literature Review
There are many studies developing this subject.
Some studies are particularly interesting in order to
frame the analysis and to create some references for
the developments that are intended to develop in this
study. Some modelling cases follow around studies
on this area.
Hand and Crowde (2005), for example, used
latent-variable technique for measuring underlying
aspects of credit customer behavior. The latentvariable model separates the observed variables into
primary characteristics (x) and behavioral
characteristics (y). Then the study summarizes them
into overall measure of credit consumer scores.
Samreen et al. (2013) summarized the
development of a credit scoring model known as
Credit Scoring Model for Corporations (CSMC),
which could be used to evaluate the creditworthiness
of corporate borrowers before granting loan. Type I
and type II errors of proposed model (CSMC) have
more accuracy rate with no errors as compared to LR
and DA.
Li and Zhong (2012) introduced ensemble
learning model for credit scoring. This model points
out moving from static credit scoring to dynamic
behavioral scoring and maximizing revenue by
decreasing Type I and Type II errors. The challenges
faced in building credit scoring models are halfbaked applicants information, missing values and
inaccurate information.
Hussein and Pointon (2011) reviewed 214
articles/books of credit scoring applications. The
important and key determinants of credit scoring
models have been investigated. The matrix (ACC rate
criterion) measures the proportion of correctly
classified cases. ACC rate is a significant criterion in
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and
4 Credit Scoring
Techniques
Procedures
and
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5 Methodology
5.1 Statement of the Problem
Considering the exposed above, it can be said
that the main income for retail banking is the interest
generated for the loans and advances. If this interest
or loans are not paid regularly it becomes a big
problem for the bank. When a borrower fails to meet
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payment history,
2.
7 Final Notes
In a new or emerging market, the operational,
technical, business and cultural issues should be
considered with the implementation of the credit
scoring models for retail loan products. The
operational issues relate to the use of the model and it
is imperative that the staff and the management of the
bank understand the purpose of the model.
Application scoring models should be used for
making credit decisions on new applications and
behavioral models for retail loan products to
supervise existing borrowers for limiting the
expansion or for marketing new products. The
technical issues relate to the development of proper
infrastructure, maintenance of historical data and
software needed to build a credit scoring model for
retail loan products within the bank. The business
issues relate to whether the soundness and safety of
banks could be achieved through the adoption of
quantitative credit decision models, which would
send a positive impact in the banking sector. The
cultural issues relate to making credit irrespective of
race, colour, sex, religion, marital status, age or
ethnic origin. Further, models have to be validated so
as to ensure that the model performance is compatible
in meeting the business as well as regulatory
requirements.
Thus, the above issues have to be considered
while developing and implementing credit scoring
models for retail loan products.
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nuno.ferreira@iscte.pt
amsouza.sm@gmail.com
1.
Introduction
____________________________________________________________________________________
International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance & Economic Sciences
IJLTFES, EISSN: 20470916
Copyright ExcelingTech, Pub, UK (http://excelingtech.co.uk/)
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Construction
Food and Allied Products
Media
Comunications
Energy
Banks
Company
Altri SGPS
Portucel
Semapa
Mota Engil SGPS
Jernimo Martins
Sonae Indstria SGPS
Sonae.com
Sonae SGPS
Cofina
Portugal Telecom SGPS
Zon Optimus
EDP Renovveis
EDP Energias de Portugal
GALP Energia SGPS
REN
Banco Comercial Portugus (BCP)
Banco Esprito Santo (BES)
Banco Portugus de Investimento (BPI)
BANIF
Esprito Santo Financial Group
2.
Methodology of DEA
1, ,
|
1, ,
,
1
0,
1, ,
0,
1, ,
863
Int. J Latest Trends Fin. Eco. Sc.
3.
Results
MeanEfficiency
0.81
0.69
0.76
0.82
0.86
0.84
0.79
MeanEfficiency
0.24
0.86
0.81
0.79
0.89
0.93
0.89
0.89
0.83
0.81
0.81
0.84
0.87
0.90
0.92
0.88
0.85
0.86
0.84
0.82
0.76
0.82
864
Int. J Latest Trends Fin. Eco. Sc.
Construction
Food and Allied Products
Media
Comunications
Energy
Banks
Company
Altri SGPS
Portucel
Semapa
Mota Engil SGPS
Jernimo Martins
Sonae Indstria SGPS
Sonae.com
Sonae SGPS
Cofina
Portugal Telecom SGPS
Zon Optimus
EDP Renovveis
EDP Energias de Portugal
GALP Energia SGPS
REN
Banco Comercial Portugus (BCP)
Banco Esprito Santo (BES)
Banco Portugus de Investimento (BPI)
BANIF
Esprito Santo Financial Group
4.
Technical Efficiency
0.91
0.79
0.74
0.69
0.85
0.68
0.72
0.80
0.82
0.89
0.83
0.82
0.91
0.87
0.77
0.92
0.93
0.91
0.53
0.67
As benchmark (%)
1%
0%
0%
0%
16%
0%
0%
0%
7%
0%
19%
9%
17%
14%
1%
7%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Concluding Remarks
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References
[1] Chen, H.-H., (2008). Stock selection using
data
envelopment
analysis.
Industrial
Management and Data Systems, 108: 1255
1268.
[2] Duque, J., and Madeira, G. (2004). Effects
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evidence from the Euronext Lisbon stock
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University of Lisbon.
[3] Fare R, Grosskopf S., Lovell CAK. (1985).
The Measurement of Efficiency of Production.
Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing, Boston.
[4] Lim, S., Oh, K.O. and Zhu, J. (2014). Use of
DEA cross-efficiency evaluation in portfolio
selection: An application to Korean stock
market, European Journal of Operational
Research, 236(1): 361-368.
[5] Lopes, A., Lanzer, E., Lima, M. and Newton
da Costa, Jr. (2008). DEA investment strategy in
the Brazilian stock market. Economics Bulletin,
13(2): 1-10.
[6] Nascimento,
V.
(2007).
Eficincia
Informacional do Mercado de Aces: O Caso
Portugus, Masters Dissertation, Faculty of
Economics, University of Porto.
[7] Singh, A.K, Sahu, R., and Bharadwaj, S.
(2009). Portfolio Evaluation using OWAHeuristic Algorithm and Data Envelopment
Analysis, Journal of Risk Finance, 11(1): 7588.
[8] Wang, M. and Chin, K.-S. (2010). Some
alternative DEA models for two-stage process,
Expert Systems with Applications, 37: 87998808.
866
Int. J Latest Trends Fin. Eco. Sc.
manuel.ferreira@iscte.pt
1.
The review
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International Journal of Latest Trends in Finance & Economic Sciences
IJLTFES, EISSN: 20470916
Copyright ExcelingTech, Pub, UK (http://excelingtech.co.uk/)
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2.
Overall review
Reference
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