Low-Carbon Jobs in An Inter-Connected World

Low-CarbonJobsinan
InterconnectedWorld
GlobalClimateNetworkdiscussionpaperno.3
March2010
©GlobalClimateNetwork2010
www.globalclimatenetwork.info
2 GlobalClimateNetwork ● Low-CarbonJobsinanInterconnectedWorld
Contents
TheGlobalClimateNetwork ............................................................................................................... 3
Executivesummary .............................................................................................................................. 4
1.Theglobalpicture ........................................................................................................................... 8
2.Findingsfromthenationalstudies ................................................................................................ 14
Australia: Cleanenergyjobsintheelectricitygenerationsector.................................................. 15
Brazil: Cuttingemissions,generatingjobs .................................................................................... 17
China: Reducingenergyintensity,increasingsupplyfromrenewables ........................................ 20
Germany:Jobsfromcapturingglobalsolarthermalmarkets....................................................... 21
India: Jobcreationthroughthedevelopmentofwind,solarPVandbiofuelmarkets ................ 23
Nigeria:Creatingjobsinsmallhydropowerandnaturalgas ...................................................... 25
SouthAfrica:Creatingjobsbyinvestinginrenewableenergy.................................................... 27
UnitedKingdom: Jobsandthelow-carbontransition................................................................. 29
UnitedStates:Buildingsmartgridsandcomparativeadvantage ............................................... 31
3.Conclusionsandrecommendations ............................................................................................... 33
References.......................................................................................................................................... 36
TheGlobalClimateNetwork
TheGlobalClimateNetworkisacollaborationofindependent,influentialandprogressiveresearchand
Formore policyorganisationsincountrieskeytotacklingclimatechange.Together,membersoftheNetwork
information, please arecommittedtoaddressingtheconstraintsfacedbysovereigngovernmentsinagreeinginternational
contactAndrew action.
Pendleton,Global
TheNetworkaimstohelpgovernmentsclearapathwaytowardsaneffectiveandfairinternational
ClimateNetwork
agreementforavoidingdangerousclimatechangebyproposingboldlow-carbonpoliciesandusing
Secretariat,at
dataandanalysistopersuadepolicymakersthatclimatechangemitigationisintheirinterest.
a.pendleton@ippr.org
orc/oippr,30-32 TheNetworkisworkingto:
SouthamptonStreet,
LondonWC2E7RA, • Addressthepolitical(economic,socialandcultural)constraintsbarringthewaytoactionby
UnitedKingdom bridgingthedividebetweendomesticandinternationalpolicy
• Promoteequitablesolutionsthattakeintoaccountthehugedevelopment,financialandenergy
challengescountriesface
• Championideasandinnovationstohelpconstructanewpoliticalnarrativethatlinksactionon
climatechangewithenhancedeconomicandsocialwell-being.
Alone,eachGlobalClimateNetworkmemberhassignificantcredibilityandinfluence.Byproducing
jointresearch,stagingeventstogetherandseekingtoinfluencepolicy,theNetworkcanhelpbridge
thedangerousdividethatexistsandiscurrentlywideningbetweeninternationalnegotiationsand
nationalpolitics.
TheNetwork’smembersare:
• InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr), London,alsoactingasthesecretariatforthe
Network:TheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktankwithastrongtrackrecordonresearchand
policy.
• CenterforAmericanProgress, USA:FoundedbyJohnPodesta,formerChiefofStaffto
PresidentClinton.
• ResearchCentreforSustainableDevelopment, China:AninstituteoftheChineseAcademy
ofSocialSciences.DrJiahuaPan,itsdirector,isoneof12membersoftheChineseExperts
CommitteeforClimateChange.
• TheEnergyandResourcesInstitute, India:Thecountry'sleadingclimateandenergyresearch
institutewhosedirector,DrRajendraPachauri,chairstheUN’sIntergovernmentalPanelon
www.globalclimatenetwork.info
ClimateChangeandisacloseadvisertotheIndiangovernment.
• WuppertalInstituteforClimate,EnvironmentandEnergy, Germany.TheWuppertal
Instituteisrenownedforitsground-breakingclimatechangework.
• VitaeCivilis, Brazil.DrRubensBorn,VitaeCivilis’sdirector,hashadsignificantinputintothe
Braziliangovernment’srecentclimatechangeplan.
• InternationalCentreforEnergy,EnvironmentandDevelopment, Nigeria.ICEEDhas
expertiseinclimatechangeandenergypolicy.
• TheClimateInstitute, Australia.Setupin2005,theInstituteisaleadingAustralianvoicein
climateresearchandadvocacy,pioneeringcleantechnologyandinvestmentsolutionswith
governmentandbusiness.
• IMBEWUSustainabilityLegalSpecialistsPtyLtd, SouthAfrica.AninfluentialJohannesburg-
basedlegalconsultancyspecialisinginsustainabilitylawwithastrongclimatechangefocus.
DrRajendraPachauri,JohnPodesta(seeabove)andLordChrisPattenofBarnes,formerEuropean
CommissionerforExternalAffairs,aretheNetwork’sfirstpatrons.
Executivesummary
Governmentactiononclimatechangepromiseseconomicopportunity.Thelanguageofclimate
changepolicyhashithertobeenlargelynegative,withwideuseofsuchwordsas‘limitation’,
‘constraint’and‘reduction’.However,investinginnewtechnology,stimulatingneweconomicactivity
aroundare-engineeringofenergysystemsandgrowingnewmarkets–allnecessarytoavoidclimate
catastrophe–willstimulategrowthandoffernew,skilledemploymenttoworkers.
Thispaperfocusesontheemergingdebateconcerningthecreationof‘low-carbon’jobs.What
perhapsbeganasrhetoricgeneratedforthepurposeofcounteractingclimatenegativityisnow
developingintoanareaofstudythatoffersextraordinarilypromisingbenefits.Notonlycanalow-
carbontechnologyrevolutionhelpachieveclimatechangegoals,itcanalsocreatenewjobs,boost
economicgrowthandhelpimprovethelivesofthosecurrentlydeprivedofaccesstoenergy.
TheGlobalClimateNetworksetitselfthreetasks:
• Toreviewdomesticandinternationalworktodateonlow-carbonjobcreation
• Toassessgovernmentpoliciesinmembercountriesthatmighthaveanimpactonlow-carbonjobs
• Toprovideestimatesofthepotentialforthecreationofjobsinimportantlow-carbonenergy
sectorsinmembercountries.
Ourapproachisdrivenbydomesticpriorities,hencewelookataverywiderangeofenergy-related
sectors,fromhydro,windandsolarinChinatoSmartGridsintheUnitedStates.
Thispaper–theproductofeightseparatenationalstudiesconductedoverrecentmonthsbyeachof
theGCN’smemberinstitutes–providesamajorfillipforclimateoptimismandpositivism.Itshows
that:
• Notonlywillthedevelopmentandwideuseoflow-carbontechnologycreatejobs,butglobally
thesewillbemeasurednotinthousandsbutinmillions.
• Newlow-carbonjobsarelikelytooutnumberjoblossesincarbon-intensivesectors.
• Thejobscreatedwillonthewholeattractabove-averagesalaries.
TheGCN’sexhaustivesurveyofexistingliteratureonlow-carbonjobsanditsownestimates– while
uncertaininsomecasesduetoashortageofsourcedataonjobsandlow-carbontechnologymarkets
– consistentlysupporttheseconclusions.Policymakersshouldaimtofillsomeofthegapsindata
identifiedinthispaperandtocometotheirownconclusionsaboutprecisenumbers,butitisthefirm,
collectiveviewofGCNmembersthattheeconomicpromisefrombold,clearanddecisivelow-carbon
policiesisverysignificantindeed.
1.Low-carbonemploymentinaninterconnectedworld
Inthispaper,wedefinelow-carbonjobsasthosethatarecreatedeitherdirectlyasaresultofthe
expansionofthelow-carbonenergyeconomyorindirectlythroughsupplyingsectorswithinthat
economywithgoodsandservices.Insomeofthenationalstudies,wealsoestimatethelikelycreation
of‘induced’jobsasaresultoflow-carboneconomicdevelopment.Theseincludenewbusinessesthat
areenabledthroughaccesstoenergytheydidnothavebeforeorasaresultofefficiencysavingsin
theeconomythatareinvestedinjobs.
TheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeina2008studyestimatesthatin20062.3million
1.Although,bythe
peoplewereemployedinrenewableenergyindustries1.ThesameUNEPstudyalsoanticipatesa
authors’ownadmission
thisisaconservative substantialincreaseinemploymentintheseindustriesby2030,bywhichtimeitsuggests
estimate,sinceitdoes approximately2.1millionpeoplewillbeemployedinwindenergy,6.3millioninsolarPVand12
nottakeintoaccounta
numberofcountriesfor
millioninbio-fuel-relatedindustryandagriculture.
whichthereislackof
systematicdata(UNEP
Analternativeapproachoutlinedintheliteratureistomeasuretheemploymentopportunities
2008). providedbycleanenergycomparedwithcarbon-intensiveindustries.Thisapproachsuggests
renewable-energyprogrammeswillgeneratemorejobsperdollarandmorejobspermegawattof
installedpowerthanfossilfuelplants(UNEP/SEFAlliance2009,Kammenetal 2004).
Jobcreationwillalsobeshapedbygloballyinterconnectedmarkets.Therehasbeenoflatesome
controversysurroundingthecreationofjobsinChinaasaresultofinvestmentbytheUSgovernment
inrenewableenergy.Butasthispapershows,thisisboththreatandopportunity.Forwhilean
increaseddemandforrenewableenergyinonecountrywillcreateopportunitiesforanother,soisthe
reversetrue.Forinstance,ourUSstudyshowsthatthecreationofSmartGridsinEurope,Japan,
Chinaandelsewherecouldcreate138,000USjobs.
Comparativeadvantageintheeraofglobalisationisseeminglyneitherinnatenorfixed.OurGerman
studyshowshowGermanystandspoisedtocaptureasignificantglobalshareofthesolarthermal
market,eventhoughGermanyitselfisnotagoodlocationinwhichtousethetechnology.
Experiencesinotherssectors,suchasIT,showthatwhileearlyonindustrialisedcountrieswerethe
developersandownersofthetechnology,overtimedevelopingcountriesmovedupthevaluechain
(Ernst2003).
Moststudiessupporttheviewthatactiveandtargetedgovernmentpolicytotriggerthewholesale
expansionofclean-energyindustriesisakeydriveroflow-carbonemploymentopportunities.
Importantpoliciesincludesettingambitiousrenewableenergytargets,increasingfundingforR&D,
creatingtechnologytestingfacilitiesandcentresofexcellence,introducingeconomicsupport
mechanismssuchasfeed-intariffs,phasingoutsubsidiesforcarbon-intensiveindustries,andputting
apriceoncarbonemissions(UNEP2008).
2.FindingsfromtheGlobalClimateNetwork
GCNmembershavefocusedexplicitlyonjobcreationatthenationallevelinordertogeneratedata
thatisanchoredinnationalpolicyobjectives.Asaresult,nationalratherthanGCN-wideassumptions
havebeenusedineachstudy,makingjobsnumbershardtocompare.Nevertheless,acrossthewide
rangeofsectorscoveredinmembers’studiesandtakingintoaccountahugevarianceinexisting
nationalconditionsandpolicies(andavailabilityofdata),thispaperidentifiesasmanyas19.5million2
energy-relatedjobopportunitiesthatcouldbecreatedinmembercountriesbetweennowand2020
asaresultofpoliciestoreducecarbonemissions.
EachGCNmembersetouttofulfilfourresearchtasks:toreviewexistinglow-carbonemployment
literatureatthenationallevel;reviewexistinggovernmentpoliciesandproposalstoexpandlow-
carbonenergymarkets;chooseprioritylow-carbonenergysectors;andmakeestimatesofthenumber
ofjobsthatmightbecreatedasaresult.Inaddition,someGCNmembershavemadeestimatesofthe
likelynumbersofjobsthatcouldbecreateddomesticallyfromtheexpansionoflow-carbonenergy
marketsinothercountries.
Theirfindingscanbesummarisedasfollows:
Australia
Australiahaspassedlegislationmandatingthatrenewableenergyaccountfor20percentofnational
electricityproductionby2020.Ifthisrenewableenergytargetwerecombinedwithabinding
commitmenttoreduceemissionsby25percent,theelectricitysectorwouldexpandtodirectlysupport
over10,000newjobsannuallyby2020.Thisincludesanetincreaseofover3,200newpermanentjobs,
2.Thisfigureisthe
sumofthegrossdirect, morethan5,500constructionjobsandanaverageofaround1,400newmanufacturingjobs,above
indirectand–inthe currentlevels.Accordingtothegovernment’sownanalysis,1.7millionnewjobscouldbecreated
casesofIndiaand
Nigeria–inducedjob
throughouttheeconomyfrom2008to2020,withanadditional4.7millionoutto2050,evenwhile
creationestimatesin nationalemissionsarecutby60percentby2050.
eachofthenational
studies.Australia Brazil
10,000,Brazil500,000,
China6.79million,
TheBrazilianGovernmenthasrecentlyconfirmedthevoluntarymitigationtargetthatitwillpursue
Germany122,000, betweennowand2020,whichsuggeststhatbetween5.7and7.1percentofprojectedgreenhouse
India10.5million, gasesemissionscouldbepreventedbyscalinguphydropower,biofuels,wind,biomassandsolarin
Nigeria670,000,South
Africa145,500,UK Brazil’sfinalenergymix.Yetthegovernmenthasnotspecifiedthepoliciesandprogrammesthatwillbe
70,000,US700,000 implementedtomeetthesetargets.Accordingtopredictionsoffuturesectoralgrowthbasedoncurrent
programmes,overhalfamillionnewjobscouldbecreatedinselectedrenewableenergysectors
throughto2020,including110,000positionsinhydropowergenerationalone.
China
Governmentwind,solarandhydropowertargetscouldleadtothecreationof6.79milliondirect
andindirectjobs.TheshiftintheChineseeconomytowardsservicessectorsandawayfrombasic
industrycouldcreateafurther20million.Theeconomyislikelytoexpandataround8percent
peryearandsowhileupto17.38millionfewerjobsmightbecreatedifenergyefficiencyis
increasedby60percent,thefocusonlowcarbonandservicessectorscouldoutstriptheselosses
byalmost10million.
Germany
TheGermangovernmenthasalreadyadoptedemissionsandrenewableenergytargetsand,by
virtueofbeinganearlymoverinrenewables,alreadyhasarelativelymatureindustry.
Consequently,278,000workersarealreadyemployedinrenewableenergy,morethanin
conventionalenergy.By2020,thisnumbercouldincreasetobetween353,500and400,000.
Exportmarketscouldaddsignificantlytothis,supportingupto238,600jobsinthemanufacture
ofsolarthermalcomponentsaloneby2050.
India
ImplementationoftheIndiangovernment’sNationalActionPlanonClimateChangecouldcreate
anadditional10.5milliondirectjobsinwind,solarandbiofuelenergyproduction.AsIndiais
alreadyaworldleaderinwindtechnology,ambitiousglobalexpansionofwindpowercouldsee
288,500IndianjobscreatedifIndianfirmswereabletocommand10percentoftheglobal
market.
Nigeria
TheNigeriangovernment’sRenewableEnergyMasterPlanpinpointssolar,smallhydropower,
windandbiomassenergy.Inaddition,thegovernmenthasstateditscommitmenttousinglower
carbonnaturalandassociatedgastodisplacediesel,currentlywidelyusedforlocalpower
generation.Ifalluntappedsmall-scalehydropowerpotentialwerecapturedand37,000
megawattsofgaspowerwereinstalled,justunder670,000jobscouldbecreated.
SouthAfrica
TheSouthAfricangovernment’spolicyisguidedbyarangeoflong-termmitigationscenarios,the
moststringentofwhich,interalia suggeststhataround50percentofSouthAfrica’senergy
wouldhavetocomefromrenewablesourcesin2050.Assumingthisequateswithatargetof15
percentofelectricityfromrenewablesin2020,36,400newdirectjobsand109,100indirectjobs
couldbecreated.
UnitedKingdom
TheUKgovernmenthasalreadyadoptedeconomy-wideemissionsreductionandrenewable
energytargetsandhasrecentlypublishedaLowCarbonIndustrialStrategy.Nevertheless,theUK
isnotingeneralaleaderinlow-carbonindustriesandalthoughoffshorewindisamajorresource,
stronggovernmentpolicywillbeneededtoattracttotheUKthejobsthiswillcreate.However,if
itissuccessfulinattractingmanufacturersandsuppliers,thiscouldleadtoupto70,000UKjobs
beingcreated.TheUKisalsowell-placedtocaptureuptohalfofalljobsworldwideinoffshore
windfinancialandlegalservices.
UnitedStates
Officialestimatesoftheeventualimpactsofthe2009USstimuluspackagesuggestthat700,000
cleanenergyjobswillbecreatedfromitsvariousprogrammesby2012,with63,000createdsofar.In
thisreportweprovidemoredetailedanalysisofhowthestimulusfocusonSmartGrids,whichalone
couldcreate278,600newjobsduringinstallation(ofwhich139,700jobswouldbeongoing)and
establishtheUSasaleaderinSmartGridtechnology.IfothercountriestheninstalledSmartGrid
technologies,afurther138,000USjobsmightbecreatedtoservetheexportmarket.
Conclusionsandrecommendations
Jobcreationwillresultfromtheexpansionofdemandforlow-carbonenergy.Butthisexpansionwill
nothappenaccidentally:itwillbedrivenbygovernmentpolicy.TheGCNthereforeconcludesthatto
createtheopportunitiesidentifiedinthispaper,governmentsmustfocusonthefollowingfour
conclusionsandrecommendations.
1.Clear,consistentandtargetedgovernmentpolicywillhelpboostjobsnumbers
Policyapproacheswillincludeeconomy-wideemissionsreductionorefficiencytargets,renewable
energytargets,feed-intariffsandotherrenewableenergymarketincentives,subsidies–suchas
recentstimuluspackages–regulationandtaxes.
GCNrecommendation:Developnational,low-carbonindustrialstrategies
Whilemanygovernmentsarebeginningtoadoptlow-carbonpolicyframeworkstoanencouraging
degree,tocapitaliseonemergingmarketsinrenewableenergyandrelatedtechnologiesandestablish
theirplaceinnewglobalvalueandsupplychainsandcreatejobstheywillneedacohesive,multi-
dimensional,strategy.
2.Financeiscriticaltothecreationoflow-carboneconomicopportunities.
Thelow-carboneconomy,andthejobopportunitiesitpromises,shouldnotwhitherduetolackof
accesstocapital.Inthecurrenteconomicclimatewithfinancestillconstrained,thisisarealdanger
thatonlygovernmentscanaddress.
GCNrecommendation:Governmentsmustpullallavailablefinanciallevers
Governmentsmustdevelopwhatsomecontributorstothisstudyhavecalled‘arobustpipelineof
financingfromgovernment,thefinancialmarketsandinternationalinstitutions’toensurethatlow-
carbontechnologiesarenotstarvedofinvestment.
3.Trainingiscriticaltothedevelopmentoflow-carbonsectors.
Eachofournationalstudiesconcludesthat–amongotherfactors–equippingnewworkforceswith
therequiredskillsisofhighimportance.Inamongthenumericalprojections,therearealsoimportant
argumentstobemadeaboutthe‘quality’ofthejobscreated.
GCNrecommendation:Identifyskillsgapsanddevelopatrainingstrategy
Afirststeptowardsalow-carbonskillsandtrainingstrategyshouldbetheidentificationbynational
governmentsorappropriateagenciesofthelikelyskillsgapsthatmightdevelopifwiderlow-carbon
industrialstrategiesarepursued.
4.Adjustmentpoliciesshouldalsoformpartofthestrategy.
Whiletheshifttoalow-carboneconomypromisestocreateanetjobgain,atleastinthetransition
phase,therewillbelosersandtheirlosswillbecostlyatthehousehold,economicandpoliticallevels.
GCNrecommendation:Identifylikelyjoblossesandensuretheseareminimised
Retrainingstaffandhelpingfirmstoorientatetheirbusinesstowardsgreaterefficiencywillbeas
essentialinlow-carbonindustrialstrategyasenablingthelow-carboneconomy.
5.Moreanalysisisneededofhowglobalisedmarketswillaffectjobcreation.
Inaninterconnectedworld,whereeconomiccrisesspreadfromoneeconomyintoothereconomies,as
recessioninindustrialisedcountriesin2008/9hasillustrated,thisstudysuggeststhatprosperityand
opportunitiestoocouldbecontagious.
GCNrecommendation:Deepenanalysisonglobal,low-carbonsupplychains
Capitalisingontheeconomicopportunitiesinherentinthedeploymentoflow-carbontechnologies
willrequireathoroughunderstandingofwhereandwhentheywillfallandtowhomsothat
policymakerscanstrikeabalancebetweenmaximisingdomesticjobcreationandopportunitiesina
competitiveglobalmarket.
1.Theglobalpicture
Theworldturnsitsattentiontojobs
AccordingtotheInternationalLabourOrganisation(2010),globalunemploymentreacheditshighest
levelonrecordin2009.Anestimated212millionpeoplewereoutofworkin2009,including34
millionmorethanin2007,andtheILOestimatesthatglobalunemploymentislikelytoremainhigh
through2010.Thus,employmentisattheforefrontofpolicymakers’minds,richandpoor.Whereas
theywereonceabyproductofastrongeconomy,jobshavebecomea‘primarygoal’,especiallyof
economicrecoveryefforts(Houser etal2009:4).
Acentralrationalebehindlastyear’seconomicstimuluspackagesisthatpublicspending,particularlyin
labour-intensiveindustriessuchasinfrastructure,constructionandmanufacturing,willresultinjob
creationascompaniesexpandtheircapacitytomeetincreaseddemand.Measurestogenerateandfoster
economicactivitywithahighlabourintensivenessalsoofferthepotentialtosimultaneouslyaddress
otherissues,suchasgreenhousegasemissions.Theconceptofthe‘low-carbon’jobhasemerged.
Defininglow-carbonjobs
Thereislittleconsensusoverwhatismeantby‘low-carbon’,‘green’or‘cleanenergy’employment
(UNEP/SEFAlliance2009).‘Greenjobs’,whichhaveoftenfeaturedlargeinpoliticallexicon,
traditionallyrefertooccupationsthatcontributetopreservingorenhancingenvironmentalqualityand
health,suchasprotectingecosystems,controllingpollution,andreducingwasteandenergy
consumption(UNEP2008).
‘Low-carbonjobs’refertoemploymentinsectorsthat‘makeupthecleanenergyeconomy’,including
energyefficiency,renewables,alternativetransportandfuels(WhiteandWalsh2008a).Defined
primarilyaccordingtoindustryratherthanoccupation,theyincludearangeofmediumandhigh-
skilledactivities– inR&D,design,production,marketingandretail,transportanddistribution,
assembly,installation,maintenanceandsupportservicesincludinglegal,ITandtechnicalconsultancy
(Pollinetal 2008).
Manyoftheseactivitiesareundertakenbyindividualswhoworkin‘indirect’low-carbonjobs,which
tendtoariseinsecond-tiersupplierindustriesproducingintermediategoodsandcomponentparts1,
aswellastheservicesector.Somestudies(Houseretal 2009,UNEP2008)alsoextendthe‘low-
carbon’tagtoincludeso-called‘inducedjobs’,jobsthatcanbegained‘whenenergysavingsare
spentelsewhereintheeconomy’.Inthisstudy,wealsoapplytheterm‘inducedjobs’tothosethatare
createdindevelopingcountriesasaresultoftheexpansionofenergyservicesthroughtheuseof
low-carbontechnologies,forinstanceasaresultofbiofuelscultivationinIndianvillages.
Anotherimportantconceptualdimensiontonoteintheexistingliteratureisthatlow-carbonjobsare,
orshouldbe,decentjobs.Theytypicallyrangefromentry-levelpositionstohigher-skilledjobsand
offergoodwages,on-the-jobtraining,opportunitiesforcareeradvancement,andjobsecurity(Cleary
andKopicki2009,UNEP2008,WhiteandWalsh2008a).
Inthisstudythereisavarianceacrossthedifferentconstituentcountrypapersonwhichitdrawsasto
theprecisedefinitionofalow-carbonjob.TheChinesestudy,forinstance,looksbothatdirectclean
energyjobcreationandatthewidernationalshifttowardsagreaterproportionofGDPbeingearned
inservicesectors.ThepaperfromtheUSlooksveryspecificallyatjobcreationfromtheexpansionof
SmartGrids.
1.Forinstance,awind
turbinetypically Estimatinglow-carbonjobsinenergysectors
containsover8,000
componentparts,not
Policymakerswillbeconcernedprimarilyaboutjoblosses;theexpansionoflow-carbontechnology
allofwhichare marketsduetopublicpolicymeasurestoreduceemissionswillinevitablyleadtothecontractionof
uniquelydestinedfor somecarbon-intensivesectors(Fankhauseretal 2008,Fredrikkson1999).However,sincethemid-
turbinesorotherlow-
carbonproducts
1990s,thenumberofjobsinthetraditionalenergysectorhasdeclinedintheUSandEuropeanyway,
(Gereffietal 2008). asaresultofliberalisationprogrammes,privatisationsandtechnologicalprogress.InEUmember
states,itisestimatedthatbetween1997and2004therewere300,000joblossesintheelectricity
generationsector(EUTCandSDA2007:70).2
Inaddition,theenergysectorisarelativelysmalldirectemployerandinmostcountriesprovidesa
relativelylowcontributiontooverallGDP(Fankhauseretal 2008).Globaldemandisnevertheless
growing.Plus,whilejobnumbersmaybelowinenergyproduction,thesectorhasacatalyticeffecton
thewidereconomy,creatingbetterprospectsforeconomicdevelopmentandgreaterjobcreation
acrosstheeconomy.Decarbonisingthesectoris,then,notonlyapromisingmeansofstimulating
additionalemployment(UNEP2008),butarguablyalsothekeytowiderdecarbonisation.
Amongthefewinternationalsurveystoanalyselow-carbonjobcreation,theUNEnvironment
Programme(2008)estimatesthatin2006approximately2.3millionpeoplewereemployedin
renewableenergyindustries.3 Thestudyanticipatesasubstantialincreaseinemploymentinclean-
energyindustriesby2030,bywhichtimeapproximately2.1millionpeoplewillbeemployedinwind
energy,6.3millioninsolarPVand12millioninbiofuel-relatedagricultureandindustry(UNEP
2008).4 Dataonjobsnumbersinthenationalstudiesthatfollowheresuggestthisisagross
underestimation.
Otherexistingstudies(regionalandcountry-specific)calculatefuturepotentialforjobopportunities
inrelationtoanticipatedindustrygrowth,asaresultofpolicyinitiativesandrisingclean-energy
investment.Forexample,arecentEuropeanCommission(2009)reportestimatesthenetnumberof
jobscreatedbyreachingtheEU’s20percenttargetfortheshareofrenewablesinenergyusein2020
at410,000.
IntheUS,astudybyRogerBezdek(2007)findsthattheUSrenewableenergyindustryobtained$39
billioninrevenuesin2006andemployed200,000peopledirectlyandanother246,000indirectly.
Assessingfutureopportunitiesunderthreescenarios,thereportsuggeststhatby2030,1.3million
directandindirectjobscouldbecreatedundera‘business-as-usual’scenario,3.1millionundera
moderatescenariothatleadstoa15percentshareofrenewablesinelectricitygeneration,and7.9
millionunderanadvancedscenariowhichwouldseenearly30percentofelectricitygeneratedfrom
renewables.Thelatterscenario‘wouldrequirestrongnationalpolicies,includingtargets,standards,
andinvigoratedR&D’(UNEP2008:100).
2.EUTCandSPA2007
doesnotsuggestthat OtherstudiesintheUShavecalculatedthenumberofjobsthatcouldbecreatedasaresultof
post-KyotoProtocol financialstimuluspackagesforcleanenergydevelopmentandtheclimatelegislationthatismakingits
policymakingwasa
factorinthisdecline
waythroughCongress.ThesearefeaturedintheUSsummaryinSection2below.
eventhoughtheirdata
setbeginsin1997.
AccordingtoUNEPandtheSEFAlliance(2008:78)renewable-energyprogrammeswillgenerate,‘per
dollar,anorderofmagnitudemorejobsthanwillexpendituresforfossilfuelplantsortaxcuts’.A
3.Although,bythe UniversityofMassachusettsandCenterforAmericanProgressreport(2009),putsafigureonthis,
authors’ownadmission
thisisaconservative estimatingthatjobcreationopportunitiesamongless-educatedworkerswouldbe‘seventimeslarger
estimate,sinceitdoes thanthenumberofjobsthatwouldbecreated…byspendingthesameamountofmoneywithinthe
nottakeintoaccounta fossil-fuelindustry’.
numberofcountriesfor
whichthereislackof Furthertothis,DanielKammen,KamalKapadia,andMatthiasFripp(2004)claimthatrenewable
systematicdata(UNEP
2008). energynotonlygeneratesmorejobsperdollarofinvestmentthanfossilfuelenergy,butalsoper
megawattofpowermanufacturedandinstalledandperunitofenergyproduced.Accordingtotheir
4.Inaseparatereport cumulativeanalysisof13independentreports,solarPV,windandbiomassareallonaveragemore
withtheSEFAlliance
(2008:78),UNEP labour-intensivethancoal.5 However,similaranalysiscarriedoutbyUNEPandtheSEFAlliance(2008)
claimsthatrenewable pointsoutthatmeandeviationsinsuchdataaretoogreattoenableafirmconclusiontobereached.
energyprogrammes
generatebetween Inarecentreport,SamuelFankhauser,FriedelSehlleierandNicholasSternsuggestthatalthough
about16,000and clean-energyindustriesmaybe‘morelabourintensiveintheshortterm’especiallyintheproduction
22,000jobsperbillion
dollarsofspending. stages,netjobcreationmayleveloutorevenbecomenegativeasandwhentechnologiesmature,
‘efficiencygains’aremadeandeconomiesofscaleincrease(2009:423).
5.Thisismeasuredin
termsofaverage Houseretal (2009)noteafurthercaveatinthatjobsmaypotentiallybelostinothersectors‘asa
employmentoverthe
resultofhighertaxratestorecoupthefiscalcostofgreenstimulusprogrammes’whiletheinitially
lifeofaproduction
facility(jobs/MW higherelectricitycostsoflow-carbonalternatives–whichultimatelywillfallonconsumers– mayalso
average). leadtoinducedjoblosseselsewhereintheeconomy.
Box1.CarbonCaptureandStorage/Sequestration:Cleaningupcarbon-intensivejobs
Whilesomejoblossesappearinevitable,especiallyas atransitiontechnologyatleast,CCSoffersrealpotential
economy-widepoliciesandtargetsareimplemented, tohelppreservejobsinasectorthatoftenhassignificant
forcinghighercostsandadjustmentdemandsoncarbon- politicalreach.
intensivesectors,developingtechnologiestocleanup
CCSalsooffersattractiveopportunitiesforexport-
certainsectorsmayhelptoreducethenumbersof
orientatedjobcreationtocountriesthatmoveearlyand
workersaffected.Thebestexampleofsuchatechnology
developthetechnology.Forinstance,arecentCenterfor
isCarbonCaptureandStorageorSequestration(CCS).
AmericanProgressreport,whichfocusesonthe
ManygovernmentsandcommentatorsanticipatethatCCS opportunitiesforcooperationbetweentheUSandChina
willhavealeadingroleindecarbonisationandindeed onCCS,estimatesthatambitiousdevelopmentofCCS
thatwithoutitthenecessaryemissionsreductionwillbe couldleadtothecreationofalmostonemillionjobsin
hardtoachieve.Butthistechnologycouldalsopotentially theUSaswellassignificantnumbersofjobsinChina
safeguardexistingjobsinthecoalindustryandprovide (CAP2009).However,thepriorityforgovernmentsisto
additionalemploymentopportunitiesinsequestration moveCCSclosertocommercialisationmorequickly
technologyandthetransportationofgases. becauseaslongasCCSremainscommerciallyuntested
andrelativelycostly,theadditionalemploymentbenefit
Manyofthecountriesfeaturedinthispaperarenotonly
relativetocapitalinvestedwillbeminimal(Fankhauseret
highlydependentoncoalforenergysupplybutalsohave
al 2008).
alargecoalminingindustry.Andwhilejobnumbersare
oftendecliningduetomechanisation,coalminingremains
6.DatafromtheUSEnergyInformationAdministrationquotedin
alabour-intensiveactivity.Forinstance,in2006,82,595 SourceWatch;seewww.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Coal_and_
peoplewereemployedincoalminingintheUS.6 Thusas jobs_in_the_United_States#_note-2
Globalvalueandsupplychains
Creatingmarketsforclean-energytechnologiesinonelocationwillcreateemploymentopportunities
7.DukeUniversity’s notonlythere,butalsoinothercountries,preciselybecausesupplyandvaluechainsarenowglobal.
CenteronGlobalization,
Governanceand Thereis,however,anotableabsenceintheliteratureofanalysislookingatglobalsupplyandvalue
Competitiveness(2008)
chainsforlow-carbonindustriesandproducts,andtheirimpactonjobcreation.Existingstudiestend
providesanotable
exceptioninitsanalysis toapproachtheissueofemploymentpotentialfromanationaland/orregionalasopposedtoan
ofprospectsforjob integratedglobalperspective(seeabove).7 Nevertheless,analysisofthewiderliteratureonlow-
creationalongthevalue
chainsofseverallow-
carbondevelopmentsuggeststhatcountriesarelikelytocapturemaximumemploymentopportunities
carbontechnologiesand alongthevalueandsupplychainsasaresultofeitherofthefollowingscenarios.
productsintheUS.
GaryGereffiand 1.Ininstanceswherelow-carbonmanufacturingfirmsmoveupthevaluechainandbecomeglobal
KristianDubaymapthe leadersintheirsector.
valuechainfor
concentratingsolar 2. Ininstanceswheretherearedomesticopportunitiesforfirmstobekeylinksinthesupplychain,
power(CSP)
technologiesand
oftenasaresultoflargeforeignmanufacturerssettingupinthatcountry(cf.WhiteandWalsh
estimatethatatthe 2008b).
componentproduction
stage,companies(and Bothscenariossuggestthatinimplementingmarketcreationpoliciesinlow-carbontechnologies,
hencejobs)thatprovide governmentsmustanalyseandunderstandtheirlikelycomparativeadvantageintheglobalvalue
partsforCSPplantsin
theUSarelocatedinat chain.Inthisregard,severallessonscanbedrawnfromtheelectronicsindustry(seeBox2below).
leastsixcountries.This
includesSolar
Firmsandindeedcountriesmaymoveupthevaluechainiftheycanestablishthemselvesasglobal
MillenniumAGin leadersinagivensector.Thisislargelydependentinthefirstinstanceonasecureandsizeable
Germany(parabolic domesticmarket,strongpoliticalcommitmentandfavourableeconomicsupportmechanisms(Bird
troughcollectors),
CristaleriaEspanolaSA 2009).Thesewinners,itisargued,arealsooftenthe‘firstmovers’(EUTCandSDA2007:72-3).
inSpain(mirrorand
reflectors)andLuz/Solel Atthecompanylevel,India’sSuzlonprovidesanexampleofamulti-nationalfirmthathas
inIsrael(linearreceivers developedcomparativeglobaladvantageinwindturbinemanufacturingandsalesbyactingearly
andheatstorage anddecisively.Inparticular,ithassetupexpansive‘internationalinnovationnetworks’of
technology).Seealso
Box3belowontheUS subsidiarieswhichallowsitto‘stayabreastofwindtechnologyinnovations…maintainingcontrol
windmarket. overintellectualpropertyrights’(Lewis2007a).
Box2:Gainingcomparativeadvantageintheglobalelectronicsindustry
Theworthoftheglobalelectronicsmarket–which Traditionally,activities(andhencejobs)atthehighendof
involvesthemanufacturingofcomponentsforcircuit- theelectronicssupplychain,inR&Danddesign,have
boardsandmicroprocessorsintelecommunications, tendedtoremaininasmallernumberoflocations,often
medicalequipment,opticaltechnologies,photonicsand whereleadingfirmsarebased.Inthediskdriveindustry
consumerelectronics– hasbeenestimatedat$2trillion forexample,while80percentofthejobsshiftedto
eachyear,withsemiconductorcomponentsaccounting SoutheastAsiafromthe1970sonwards,harddiskdrive
alonefor$275billionofworldwiderevenue(BISBusiness designlargelyremainedbasedintheUS(McKendricket
Link2007). al 2000).However,comparativeadvantageisbynomeans
fixed.Certainsectorswithintheelectronicsindustryhave
Aswithothercapital-andtechnology-intensivevalue
witnessedglobalisationofupstreamactivities,owingto
chains,therehasbeenanincreasingtrendsincethe1980s
increasingaccesstoandexchangeofknowledge,
forleadingbrand-namefirmsintheelectronicsindustry–
innovationstrategiesandsophisticatedresearch
suchasIBM,Hewlett-Packard,CiscoSystemsandAlcatel
capabilities(Ernst2003).
–tomoveoperationsoffshoreandoutsourcekey
activitiestocontractmanufacturersinthirdcountries, Incountriesthatdonothavethemanufacturing
notablyintheassemblyoffinishedgoodsandthesupply capabilitiesorfacilitiestocompetewithemerging
ofkeyintermediateproducts(Gereffi2005).In2001,90 economiesinAsia,governmentshaveattemptedtogain
percentofconsumerelectronicssoldintheUSwere comparativeadvantageandcreatejobsbytargeting
producedoffshore(USITC2002). certainsupplychainactivitiesforrolespecialisation.The
UKforexamplespecialisesinsoftwareanddesign
Asiahasbecomethepowerhouseofproductionforthe
innovationforelectronicchips‘acrossawidespectrumof
internationalmarket,withChina,Korea,Taiwan,Singapore
disciplines,whichisrecognisedglobally’(cf.BISBusiness
andMalaysiaaccountingin2002for25percentofglobal
Link2007).
electronicsproduction8 (Ernst2003).China,withitslow
labourcostsandhighproductivity,hasbeenapriority
investmenttargetforglobalindustryleaders,with85per 8.Althoughrevealinglyonly16percentofproductionsupplies
domesticmarketsinthesecountries.Thisistestamenttotheexport
centofChina’shigh-technologyexportsemanatingfrom marketopportunitiesforelectronicsmanufacturingfirms.
foreign-investedenterprises(Gereffi2005).
Countriesandfirmsmayalsodevelopcomparativeadvantageintheglobalclean-energyvalue
chainbysecuringapositionatthelowerendofthesupplyspectrum.Itmayperhapsbeeasierto
gainmarketaccessbyfocusingonspecialisedsecondaryactivitiessuchastheproductionand
supplyofcomponentparts(forexample,cells,modules,wafers,andsiliconforsolarPV)which
‘require...lessinvestmentandtechnicalknow-how’(UNEP2008:110).
Itisalsoimportanttobearinmindthepotentialcontradictionbetweenrenewableenergysources
‘asaglobalsourceofjobsandrenewablesaspartofnationalcompetitiveeconomicstrategies’
(UNEP2008:9).Giventheimportanceforcountriesandfirmsofcementingtheirpositiononthe
globalvaluechain,itmaybethecasethat‘asrenewablesindustriesmature,theywillincreasingly
bemarkedbydifficultissuesofcompetitiveness,traderules,andwagedifferentialsthatare
alreadyfamiliartopicsinotherindustries’(ibid).
Domesticversusglobalopportunities
Accordingtomuchoftheliteratureasignificantproportionoflow-carbonenergyjobswillbe
createdinthecountry,regionorlocalityforwhichtheendproductisintended.Thisisdueinpart
tohightransportationcosts(UNEP2008)forlargeequipmentandcomponentpartsandthe
availabilityofsupportingindustrialinfrastructure(BSR2009).
IntheUS,forinstance,ithasbeenestimatedthatwhilethemajorityofwindturbinesinstalledare
importedfromEuropeandAsia,domesticmanufacturingofturbinecomponents–primarilytowers
andblades–hasincreasedfrom30to50percentbetween2005and2008(Ayeeetal 2009).In
thistime,55neworupgradeddomesticmanufacturingfacilitieshavebeencreated,resultingin
13,000newdirectjobs.AstheUSmarketgrows,leadinginternationalturbinemanufacturersare
establishingfacilitiesthereandthisislikelytogeneratealargeproportionofnewjobs,notonlyin
theUS,butalso– duetointernationalnatureofsupplychains– incountriesoverseas(seeBox3).
Thereisastrongpossibilitythatforeigncompaniesoperatingabroadmayrelyonexistingsupply
chainsratherthanbuildnewonesthatsupportlocalorregionaljobcreation(cf.forexample
Gamsca’soperationsinOhio[UNEP2008]).Tocounteractthis,countriessuchasSpainhave
introducedlocalcontentrequirements(Bird2009,Lewis2007a),whileChinahasimposed
graduatedimportdutiesinordertoencouragewindindustrymanufacturerstosourcelocally-
producedcomponents(UNEP2008).
Theextenttowhichspecificcountries,regionsorcommunitiesbenefitfromlow-carbon
employmentthereforedependsonthemarketopportunitiesavailableforrenewable-energyfirms
butalsoon‘whetherthenecessaryindustrialandknowledgebase,aswellasinfrastructureexists’
(UNEP2008:44).Withoutimprovingsupportinginfrastructureandtheexistingskillsbase,itwill
beincreasinglydifficultforgovernmentstoeffectivelymarketdomesticlow-carbonopportunities
toforeignfirmsandinvestors.Asaresult,theremaybefewerdomesticemploymentopportunities
arisingacrossthesupplychain.
Box3:Interconnectednessandjobcreation:theUSwindpowermarket*
TherapidgrowthoftheUSwindindustryinrecent ofbladesmotorsandgeneratorswereworth$1.8billion
yearshasattractedanumberoflargeinternationalfirms (David2009).Atthesametime,USexportsofwind
seekingopportunitiesforinvestment.Today,leading turbinecomponentshaveincreased,from$0.7millionin
foreigncompaniesoperate,andhenceprovidedomestic 2003to$22.1millionin2008.Insomeinstances,firms
jobs,ineachstageofthesupplychainforUSwind havesetupmanufacturingfacilitiesintheUS,inorder
powergeneration.Atthesametime,USdemandfor tosupplyregionalmarketsintheAmericas,especially
windproductsandservicesgeneratesopportunitiesfor CanadaandBrazil.Asaresult,USjobsin
employmentbeyonditsborders. manufacturing,salesandtransportationarelikelytobe
createdasadirectresultofthegrowthofthewind
AccordingtotheNorthCarolinaWindWorkingGroup
powerindustryinothercountries.
(cf.Methiparaetal2008),every100MWofinstalled
powerprovidesperannum310full-time-equivalent Whiletheargumentthatmarketgrowthforrenewable
manufacturingjobs,67contractingandinstallationjobs, technologiesinonecountrycreatesjobopportunities
and9.5jobsinoperationandmaintenanceintheUS.In elsewhereappearsself-evident,thereisverylittledata
2008alone,35,000newjobswerecreatedasaresultof thatextrapolatespreciselyinwhichcountriesjobsmight
USmarketexpansion(AmericanWindEnergy bebased.Forthepurposesofthisstudy,wecarriedout
Association2009,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil2008). aseriesofin-depthinterviewswithrepresentativesfrom
leadingturbinemanufacturersandutilitiesoperatingin
Manyoftheworld’sleadingturbineoriginalequipment
theUSmarket.Intervieweeswereeitherunableor
manufacturershaveestablishedafootholdintheUS
unwillingtoprovidedataonthenumberofpeoplethey
market.TheseincludeVestas,whoseUSinstallations
employedindifferentcountries,atdifferentstagesof
total1,120MW,Siemens(791MW),Suzlon(763MW)
thesupplychain,andthenumberofemployees
andGamesca(616MW).However,notalloftheir
providingproductsandservicesfortheUSmarket.
manufacturingtakesplaceintheUS:forinstance,
Suzlononlyproducesrotorbladesandnoseconesatits Nevertheless,ourGCNmemberstudies–notablythose
USfacility,inPipestone,Minnesota.Thecompanymay fromtheUS,India,GermanyandtheUK–provide
thereforeshipothercomponents(nacelle,nacellecovers, insightsintothetypesofdomesticemployment
controlsystems,generatorsandtubulartowers)fromits opportunitiesthatcanbecreatedbycapturingoverseas
manufacturingfacilitiesinIndiaorChina,orsourcethem marketsforlow-carbontechnologies,andalsothosejobs
fromexternalsuppliers.Asaresult,productsdestined thatwillbecreatedabroadasaresultofmarket
fortheUSmarketmaywellbedevelopedand developmentintheirowncountries.
manufacturedbystaffinothercountries.
*Thisboxdrawsheavilyoninformationpresentedina
TheideathatdevelopingtheUSwindmarket studyoftheUSwindpowersectorbytheCenteron
contributestoemploymentcreationabroadis Globalization,GovernanceandCompetitiveness(seeAyee
substantiatedifoneconsidersthatin2008USimports etal2009).
Policiesanddriversforlow-carbonemploymentcreation
Muchoftheliteratureonlow-carboneconomicdevelopment– andthefindingsofthisGCNstudy
– suggeststhatcreatingnewandsustainablelow-carbonjobslargelydependsonthematurityof
domesticandinternationalmarketsandtheexistenceoffavourablepolicyenvironmentsto
stimulatethegrowthofclean-energytechnologiesandindustries.
UNEP(2008)suggeststhatactivegovernmentpolicytotriggerthewholesaleexpansionofclean-
energyindustriesisakeydriveroflow-carbonemploymentopportunities.Settingambitious
renewableenergytargets,increasingfundingforR&D,introducingeconomicsupportmechanisms
suchasfeed-intariffs,phasingoutsubsidiesforcarbon-intensiveindustries,improvingthe
competitivenessofrenewablesbyputtingapriceoncarbon:allthesethingsmayhelpfosterlow-
carbonenterprise,attractprivateinvestmentandinturncreatejobs(Fankhauseretal 2009,UNEP
2008).
Sincetheimplementationofsuchpoliciesisunlikelytoprovideaquickfix,manygovernments
facedwiththeimmediatepriorityoftacklingunemploymentatatimeofrecessionhaveoptedto
allocateaproportionoffiscalstimuluspackagestolow-carbonmeasures(Robinsetal 2009).
Houseretal (2009:1)suggest,however,thatwhileimportant,a‘greenstimulusisnoreplacement
foracomprehensiveclimateandenergypolicy’,notonlyforreducinggreenhousegasemissions
anddependenceonforeignsourcesofenergy,butalsoforfosteringlow-carboninnovation.
Muchofthebroaderliteraturealsoemphasisestheroleof‘activelabourmarketpolicies’(ALMPs)
insafeguardingexistingandgeneratingnewjobs,manyofwhichmaybeapplicabletolow-carbon
sectors(Brinkleyetal 2008).Nationalandregionalgovernmentsmayintervenebyoffering
financialincentivesforclean-energyindustriesandinvestors,grantingwagesubsidiesforlow-
carbonemployersandreducingtheirpayrolltaxes.
Inadditiontomaximisingthenumberofjobsavailable,itiswidelysuggestedthatgovernments
shouldimplementpoliciestoensurethattheworkforceisequippedwiththenecessaryskillsto
exploitlow-carbonemploymentopportunities(Bird2009).Forexample,Germanrenewablefirms
havereportedashortageofqualifiedworkersforknowledge-intensivelow-carbonpositions,such
asdesigners,engineersandelectricians(UNEP2008).Whatisneeded,itisargued,isa
combinationoftrainingprogrammesandeffectivestrategiestoattractmorepeopletolow-carbon
sectors(Bird2009).
AccordingtotheUKgovernment,equippingtheworkforcewithlow-carbonskillsandknow-how
willbe‘adeterminingfactorin...[its]abilitytoattractlowcarboninvestment,successfully
commercialiselowcarbontechnologies,andinnovatewithincompanies’(HMGovernment2009:
78).Anextensiveskills-basewillnotonlybecrucialinensuringthegrowthoflow-carbon
industriesdomestically,butwillalsoplayaroleindeterminingtheextenttowhichtheycansecure
astakeofandbecompetitiveintheglobalmarketforcleanenergyproductsandservices,a
conclusionreachedinmanyofthenationalcontributionsunderscoringthisstudy.
2.Findingsfromthenationalstudies
Methodologyandapproach
Theprimaryaimofthisstudyistoexaminetheprospectsforthecreationofjobsinlow-carbon
energysectorsintheninecountriesinwhichtheGlobalClimateNetwork’smembersarebased.This
synthesispaperisbasedoneightnationalstudiesthatare,inseveralcases,thefirstoftheirkind;in
Nigeria,forinstance,theGCN’smemberinstitutefoundalmostnoliteratureonjobcreationandless
stillonlow-carbonemployment.
Webeganwithaninternationalliteraturereview,asummaryofwhichisincludedabove.EachGCN
memberthenattemptedtocompletethreeresearchtasksatthenationallevel:
1.Conductathoroughreviewofthenationalliteratureonlow-carbonandgreenjobcreation,
wheresuchdatawasavailable.
2.Assessthegovernmentpoliciesorproposalstoreduceemissions,emissionsintensityorenergy
intensityand/ortoexpanduseofrenewableenergy.
3.Provideestimatesofthepotentialforjobcreationinprioritylow-carbonenergysectors(thatis,
thosesectorsidentifiedingovernmentliteratureandintheGCN’spreviousstudy[GlobalClimate
Network2009]asbeingofhighnationalimportance).
Inaddition,membersattemptedtomakefurtherestimatesofjobsinsectorsthatmightbecreatedas
aresultofacountryorfirm’sshareoffutureexportmarkets.Whereeconomy-widepoliciesalready
existorhavebeenproposed,GCNmembers–inChinaandtheUS,forinstance–havenotonly
lookedatthegrossnumberoflow-carbonjobsthatmightresult,buthavealsoattemptedtoarriveat
netnumbersbyusingassessmentsoflikelylossesincarbon-intensivesectorsasaresult.
Atthenationallevel,GCNmembershaveworkedtoavarietyofmethodologiestoarriveatthe
estimatesofjobnumbers.Thisispartduetotimeandfinancialconstraints,whichpreventedthe
creationoffullmodelsorregressionanalysesandalsoduetothelackofsourcedata,whichinsome
caseshasmadetheestimationofjobnumbersverydifficultindeed.Itisalsoofhighimportanceto
theGCN–asaninternationalallianceofdomesticorganisationsratherthananinternational
organisation–thatweadequatelyreflectthedifferentnationalcircumstancesandsonecessarilythe
nationalstudiesarenotdirectlycomparable.
Thereare,however,clearparallels,importantcommonfindingsandstronglysharedconclusions.There
isalsoasetofnine,standalonenationalstudiesthatarelikelytobeofinterestandimportanceatthe
domesticlevelpreciselybecausetheyaddressnationalconcernsandinterests.Thesearepublished
separatelybutareavailablethroughtheGlobalClimateNetwork’swebsite(globalclimatenetwork.info).
Thefindingsofthesenationalstudiesaresummarisedbelow,countrybycountry,inalphabetical
order.Forthepurposesofthissynthesispaper–inparticulartoallowtheinternationalreaderto
establishaclearerimpressionofthecontextinwhichnationalassessmentsoflow-carbonjobcreation
arebeingmade–wehavealsoincludedsomebasicdataaboutnationallabourmarketsandlevelsof
unemployment.
Australia: Cleanenergyjobsintheelectricitygenerationsector
Background
Australiahaswithstoodtheworstimpactsoftheglobaleconomicdownturnbetterthanmost
advancedeconomies.GDPgrewonaverageby0.5percentduring2009(TradingEconomics2010),
enabledinpartbygovernmentstimulusmeasurestodriveinfrastructuredevelopmentandconsumer
spending.
Oneofthebiggestclimate-relatedchallengesforAustraliawillbeintheelectricitygenerationsector,
whichaccountsforaround37percentofAustralia’stotalemissions,makingitthesinglebiggest
1.Emissionsfromthis sourceofcarbonpollution.1 ChangesinthewayAustraliaproducesanduseselectricitywillhave
sourcehaverisen implicationsforemployment.InOctober2009,totalunemploymentroseto670,100or5.8percentof
sharplysince1990.
Whilenationalemissions
theworking-agepopulation(AustralianBureauofStatistics2009).
haveincreasedby
around8percentsince
Expandingrenewableenergygenerationcapacitywillofferthepotentialtocreatenewjobs,including
1990,emissionsfrom inconstruction,operationandmaintenance.Growthindemandforrenewableenergyandenergy
electricitygeneration efficiencyserviceswillalsohavespin-offbenefitsforsupportingindustries,leadingtoindirect
haveskyrocketedby55
percent(cf. employmentbenefits.
Commonwealthof
Australia2009b). Policyassumptions
2.MMA’smodelling
TheAustralianParliamenthasrecentlypassedlegislationmandatingthatrenewableenergyaccount
provideddetailedresults for20percentofnationalelectricityproductionby2020.TheFederalGovernmenthasalso
ontotalgenerationof introducedaAUS$4.5billionCleanEnergyInitiativetosupportlow-emissionandrenewableenergy
electricityandtotal
installedcapacityfor technologies,includingfundingtodeployacombined2000MWofsolarandcarboncaptureand
eachyearofthestudy storage(CCS)technologies.
andforeachtechnology.
Themodellingassumesa AssumingitpassesthroughtheSenate,theCarbonPollutionReductionScheme(CPRS)willimprove
shifttowardsless thecost-competiveneesoflow-carbontechnologiesand,asaresult,islikelytoincreasetheiruptake.
emissions-intensive
electricitygeneration, Incapping75percentofAustralianemissions,itislikelytoresultinslowerratesofgrowthin
whichseesemissions emissionsintensivesectors.YetevenifAustraliaweretoadoptanemissionsreductiontargetof25per
fromthissectorreduced centbelow2000levelsby2020alongsidetheCPRS,allbuttwoindustries–oilandaluminium–will
to9%below2009levels
by2020and13%below continuetoexpandby2050(CommonwealthofAustralia2009a).
2009levelsby2030.This
datawasusedbyIT Findings
Power(Australia)to
assesstheimpactson ExistingstudiessuggestthatAustralia’seconomyandworkforcewillcontinuetogrowstronglyevenas
employment,by carbonemissionsaresharplyreduced.Accordingtothegovernment’sownanalysis,1.7millionnew
applyingassumed jobscouldbecreatedthroughouttheeconomyfrom2008to2020,withanadditional4.7millionout
employmentfactorsfor
eachtechnology.A to2050,evenwhilenationalemissionsarecutby60percentby2050.Underthesamescenario,
‘declinefactor’wasalso averageannualincomesarealsoexpectedtorisebyAUS$4,300by2020(Gilliard2009).
appliedtoaccountfor
likelyimprovementsin PreviousworkbytheClimateInstitute(2009)lookingattherenewableenergysectorasawhole
labourproductivityover
estimatesaround26,200newdirectandindirectjobscouldbecreatedifallplannedandcommitted
time.
cleanenergyprojectsgoahead.Thisnewpaper–conductedalongsideleadingAustralianenergy
3.Theresultsfromthis sectorconsultants,McLennanMagasanikAssociates(MMA)andITPower(Australia)2 –specifically
studydifferfromThe
ClimateInstitute’searlier
analysesthedirectemploymentimpactsofatransitiontoalow-carbonelectricitysector.3 Itfindsthat
report.First,onlydirect if,by2020,20percentofelectricityisderivedfromrenewablesourcesandemissionsarereducedby
jobswereassessedin 25percentbelow1990levels:
thisstudy,whilethe
previousstudyalso • Morethan10,000newjobscouldbecreatedinAustralia’selectricitysector.Thisincludesanet
assessedindirect
employmentimpacts.
increaseofapproximately3,200newpermanentjobsandmorethan5,500constructionjobs
Second,theconstruction abovecurrentlevels.Italsoincludesanannualaverageofaround1,400newmanufacturingjobs
jobsforthisreportwere supportedbytheexpansionanddiversificationoftheelectricitysectorbetweennowand2020.
assessedforeachyearof
thestudyperiod, • Inyearsofhighinstallation,thesizeofthemanufacturingworkforcesupportedbytheelectricity
whereastheprevious
studyestimatedthetotal sectorcouldexceed4,500people.
numberofconstruction
jobscreatedoverthe
• Totalpermanentemploymentintheelectricitygenerationsectorwillincreaseby19percent
entirestudyperiod. between2010and2020,growingtomorethan20,000jobsin2020.
• Intheperiod2010–2020,asignificantproportionofemploymentwillbesupportedasaresultof
increasedrelianceonwind,geothermal,large-scalesolar,bio-energyandgas.
Conclusions
Thesefindingsarehighlysignificantastheyshouldputtorestclaimsthattakingstrongactionon
climatewillcostjobs.However,governmentpolicywillbeessentialtoensureemployment
opportunitiesintheelectricitysectorarecreatedoverthecomingdecades.Thiswillincludepoliciesto
supportinvestmentsinnew,low-carbon,energysources,suchastheemissionstradingschemeand
renewableenergytargetsandasuiteofotherpolicies,includingthosedesignedtosupportregional
development.
Amongthepoliciesthatwillbeonthegovernment’sprioritylisttoachievejobcreationthrough
decarbonisationinclude:innovationpolicy,askillsstrategyandadjustmentpoliciestoensureaffected
workershaveaccesstoretrainingandsupport.Inacarbon-intensivecountrysuchasAustralia,the
latterwillbeessentialtoensurea‘justtransition’tolowcarbon.
References
AustralianBureauofStatistics(2009)LabourForceAustralia.Canberra,availableat:
www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Oct%202009?OpenDocument.
CommonwealthofAustralia(2009a)Australia’sLowPollutionFuture:TheEconomicsofClimate
ChangeMitigation.Canberra:TheTreasury,availableat:www.treasury.gov.au/lowpollutionfuture/
CommonwealthofAustralia(2009b)NationalGreenhouseGasInventory Canberra:Departmentof
ClimateChange
TheClimateInstitute(2009)CleanEnergyJobsandInvestmentinRegionalAustralia.Sydney:TCI,
availableat:www.climateinstitute.org.au/images/maps/cleanenergyjobs.pdf
TradingEconomics(2010)‘AustraliaGDPGrowthRate’,availableat
www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Symbol=AUD
GillardJ(2009)‘AddresstotheGreenSkillsForum-NewConventionCentre-Melbourne’,23
October2009,availableat
www.deewr.gov.au/Ministers/Gillard/Media/Speeches/Pages/Article_091023_125628.aspx
Brazil: Cuttingemissions,generatingjobs
Background
LatinAmerica’slargesteconomywasoneofthefirstemergingmarketstocomeoutofrecession.
Despitebeinghithardbythefallinglobaldemandforcommodity-basedexports,Brazil’sGDP
recoveredtogrowby1.9percentinthesecondquarterof2009(e.g.BBC2009).Thisrapidupturn
wastriggeredinpartbymeasurestostimulatespendingandinvestment,includingUS$10billionof
creditforindebtedfirms,taxcutsforconsumers,andalarge-scaleroll-outofpublicinfrastructure
projects(NoriegaandShah2009).
AsBrazil’seconomycontinuestoexpand–theCentralBankexpects5percentgrowthin2010(CIA
2009)–sotoowillitsenergyneeds.OfficialestimatesbytheEnergyResearchEnterprisepredictan
increaseinenergydemandofbetween40and100percentby2020(EPE2007).Asignificant
proportionofadditionalenergydemand–and,accordingtotheEPE,asmuchas45.8percentof
totalenergyby2020–islikelytobemetfromcleansources.
Sincethe1990s,officialemploymentratesinBrazilhaverisensteadily,largelyasaresultofeconomic
privatisationwhichhasbroughtmanyworkersoutofinformaloccupations1.Nevertheless,
unemploymentpeakedat9percent(2.1million)oftheworkingpopulationinMarch2009
(AssociatedPress2009).
Policyassumptions
AheadoftheUNClimatesummitinCopenhagen,theBraziliangovernmentannouncedavoluntary
targettoreducegreenhousegasemissionsby36.1to38.9percentby2020comparedtobusiness-
as-usual2.TheNationalClimateChangePlan(PNMC2008)breaksdownthistargetintoaseriesof
sectors,withthegreatestcuts(24.7percent)anticipatedthroughthepreventionofdeforestationin
1.However,thegrey theAmazonandCerradoregions.Intheenergysector,measurestoreduceemissionsandinclude:
marketstillaccounted
forabout40percent • Increasingthesupplyofenergyfromlargehydroelectricpowerplantswhichwillleadtoan
ofBrazil’sgross
nationalincomein
estimatedreductionof79–99milliontonnesofC02-equivalent(or2.9-3.7percentoftheoverall
2005(Capetal.2005) mitigationtarget)in2020.
andaccordingtothe
latestdemographic • Increasingtheuseofbio-fuelswhichwillleadtoanestimatedreductionof48–60milliontonnes
census,asmanyas ofC02-equivalent(or1.8–2.2percentoftheoverallmitigationtarget)in2020.
65.5percentofthe
workforcearenotin • Increasingotherrenewablesources(smallhydroelectric,wind,solarandbioelectricity),whichwill
dulydocumented
employment(PNAD
leadtoanestimatedreductionof26–33milliontonnesofC02-eq(or1-1.2percentofthe
2008). overallmitigationtarget)in2020.
2.Thistargetis TheBrazilianGovernmentisyettospecifythepolicies,programmesandinitiativesthatitwillpursueto
identicaltothe meetthesetargets.However,expansionineachsectorofferssignificantemploymentcreationpotential.
Braziliangovernment’s
recentsubmissionto
theUNFCCCto
Findings:Hydropower,biofuels,solar,windandbiomass
associateitselfwiththe TheInternationalLabourOrganisationestimatesthereare547,500peoplecurrentlyemployedinthe
CopenhagenAccord.
See
generationanddistributionofrenewableenergyinBrazil(ILO2009).Ofthistotal,35,125jobsarein
http://unfccc.int/files/ hydropower,whichprovidesthebulkofBrazil’snon-fossilfuelenergy,and296,600inbiofuels.This
meetings/application/p studycombinesfindingsfromotherexistingstudieswithnewanalysistocalculatethenumberofjobs
df/brazilcphaccord_app
2.pdf thatcouldbecreatedifexistingprogrammesareimplementedandtargetsachieved.Itfindsthat:
3.RoyalDutchShell • If,asEPEanalysispredicts(EPE2007),totalelectricityconsumptioninBrazilin2020reaches
hasreportedlystrucka 706,6TWhand585,7TWhofthisisproducedbyhydropowerplants,asmanyas110,000new
partnershipwiththe jobscouldbesecuredinthissectorby2020.
Brazilianbioethanol
producer,Cosan,ina
jointventuresaidtobe
• BiofuelsproductioninBrazilisincreasinglymechanisedandthemarketisdominatedbyasmall
worthUS$12bn numberofmultinationalfirms3.Nevertheless,thegovernmentplantoplant18millionadditional
(Mathiason2010). hectares(ha)ofbiofuelscropsmaycreate150,000newjobsinproductionby2020.
• Ifexistingplansforwindpowerdevelopmentunderthegovernment’s‘Proinfa’schemeare
implemented(56newwindpowerstationsbytheendof2010),1423MWofnewenergycapacity
willbegeneratedwhichcouldcreateanadditional3,500jobs.
• TogetherwithexistingbiomassandsmallhydropowerschemesfundedbyProinfa,atotalof
3,299MWenergycapacityand150,000newdirectandindirectjobscouldbegeneratedacross
eachofthesesectors(MME2009).
• Inthesolarpowersector,asmanyas51,600newjobscouldbecreatedby2018inthe
manufacturingandmaintenanceofsolarthermalsystems.
Conclusions
RenewableenergysourceshaveastrongerpotentialinBrazilthaniscurrentlyenvisagedinofficial
studiesandgovernmentpolicies,bothintermsofcontributingtocarbondioxidemitigationand
generatingjobs.Althoughthegovernmenthasrecentlypledgedaseriesofvoluntarytargetsto
increasetheproportionoftotalenergyusederivedfromhydroelectricity,bio-fuelsandalternative
renewabletechnologiesby2020,thenecessaryoverarchingpolicyframeworksandprogrammes
requiredtoachievethesetargetsarelacking.
Thegovernmentwillalsoneedtoensurethatworkersareprovidedwiththenecessaryskillsand
trainingopportunitiessothatnewpositionsinrenewableindustriescanbefilledanddomestic
industriesflourish.Afurtherchallengewillbetoensurethatnewlow-carbonjobs(particularlyinsugar
caneandpalmoilplantations)providedecentandstableworkingconditions,adequatepay,and
prospectsforcareerprogression–allofwhicharecrucialtoBrazil’swiderdevelopmentobjectives.
References
BBC(2009)‘Brazil’seconomyleavesrecession’,11September,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8251164.stm
CapJ,ElstrodtHandJonesW(2005)‘ReininginBrazil'sinformaleconomy’,
www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Economic_Studies/Productivity_Performance/Reining_in_Brazils_inf
ormal_economy_1566
CIA(2009)WorldFactbook–Brazil,https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/br.html
InstitutoBrasileirodeGeografiaeEstatística(2008)PesquisaNacionalporAmostradeDomicílio
(PNAD),availableat:
www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/populacao/trabalhoerendimento/pnad2008/default.shtm
MathiasonN(2010)‘ShelltododealwithBrazilianbiofuelproducerCosantosecurefuture’,The
Guardian, 1February2010,availableat:www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/01/shell-cosan-
brazil-biofuel-deal
MinistériodeMinasEnergia(MME)Proinfa:Programmadeinventivoàsfontesalternativasde
energiaelétrica Brasilia:MME,availableat
www.mme.gov.br/programas/proinfa/galerias/arquivos/apresentacao/Situaxo_usinas_PROINFA_
AGO-2009.pdf
EmpresadePesquisaEnergética(EPE)(2007)MatrizEnergéticaNacional2030 Brasília:MME/EPE,
availableat:www.mme.gov.br/spe/galerias/arquivos/Publicacoes/matriz_energetica_nacional_
2030/MatrizEnergeticaNacional2030.pdf
NoriegaRandShahA(2009)‘TherealstimulusthatBrazilneeds’,AmericanEnterpriseInstitutefor
PublicPolicyResearch,availableat:www.aei.org/article/29172
OrganizaçãoInternacionaldoTrabalho(ILO)(2009)EmpregosverdesnoBrasil:quantossão,onde
estãoecomoevoluirãonospróximosanos Brasilia:ILO,availableat:
www.oitbrasil.org.br/topic/green_job/doc/empregos_verdes_no_brasil_128.pdf)
China:Reducingenergyintensity,increasingsupplyfromrenewables
Background
ThejobmarketinChinahastoprovideopportunitiesforaround775millionpeople.In2008,the
unemploymentratewas4.2percent(NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina2009).Therecentglobal
recessionreportedlycausedshort-termunemploymentforsomeadditional20millionpeople(seefor
exampleHogg2009).
Chinaisaccustomedtolarge-scaleeconomictransformationsaffectingworkingpatterns.Inthefive
yearsfrom1997to2002,around50millionpeoplelosttheirjobsasaresultofgovernmentpolicies
thatreducedthenumbersofworkersemployedinstate-andgroup-ownedcompanies– partofthe
structuraladjustmentstotakeChinafromplannedtomarketeconomy.Inthesameperiod,the
numbersofemployeesinprivatefirmsquadrupled(seeforexampleMengJianJun2002).
Againstthisbackdrop,policiestoreducetheenergyandemissionsintensityofChina’sfuturegrowth
–assumedtobearound8percentperannumbetweennowand2020–appeartohaverelatively
modest,ifstructurallyprofound,implications.Thesechangeswillalsooccuragainstabackdropofa
further,significantstructuralshiftintheChineselabourmarketasthegovernmentattemptstoshift
theeconomyhigherupthevaluechain.Itisenvisagedthattheservicesectorwillincreaseitsshareof
GDPfrom40.1percentin2008to50percentin2020.1
Policyassumptions
Thegovernment’swell-publicisedplanstoestablishatargetforreducingtheemissionsintensityof
industrialproductionwillresultfromadecouplingofenergyusefromgrowthandagreateruseof
renewables,nuclearandcleancoalinitsenergymix.Thispaperexaminesthejobsimpactin2020of
twopossibleoutcomesofsuchapolicyagainstabusiness-as-usual(BAU)case:
• Alowlevel40percentreductionintheuseofenergyperunitofGDP
• Ahighlevel60percentreductionintheuseofenergyperunitofGDP
• ABAUcaseofa1.91percentperannumreduction.2
Thegovernmenthasalsosettargetsforthedeploymentofrenewableenergy.Thispaperestimates
thelikelyjobcreationthatmightresultfromanincreasein:
• Hydropowerfrom170GWin2008to300GWin2020
• Windpowerfrom12GWin2008toeither100GWor150GWin2020
• SolarPVfrom0.4GWin2008to20GWin2020.
Inaddition,thispaperestimatesthenumberofconstructionandrelatedjobsthatmightbecreatedas
aresultoftherecentlyannouncedeconomicstimulus,ofwhich3trillionYuan(circa$440billion)will
beinvestedby2020innewenergyinfrastructure.
Findings
TheemploymentmarketinChinaisexpandingrapidlyasaresultofitseconomicgrowth.Thisstudy
lookedatmanufacturing,constructionandtransportationjobsinthewidereconomyandfoundthat:
1.Accordingtothe
• Areductioninenergyintensityof40percentby2020ledtoanetlossinjobscreatedof11.49
ChineseStateCouncil’s millioncomparedtothenumbersofjobscreatedunderBAU.
Directiveon
Acceleratingthe • Areductioninenergyintensityof60percentby2020ledtoanetlossinjobscreatedof17.38
Developmentof millioncomparedtothenumbersofjobscreatedunderBAU.
ServicesIndustries.
• Manufacturingwasthesectorinwhichnumbersofjobscreatedwerelower,withconstructionand
2.Between1985and
transportationsectorsgaining.
2004,thiswasthe
averageimprovement Inthreerenewableenergysectors,modestgainsinresearch,manufacturing,installation,operation
inenergyintensity.
andmaintenancejobnumberswerepossibleifgovernmenttargetsareachievedby2020:
• Inhydropower,anadditional1millionjobscouldbecreated
• Inwindpoweranadditional670,000to1millionjobscouldbecreated
• InsolarPVanadditional860,000to880,000jobscouldbecreated.
Inaddition,by2020:
• Afurther4millionjobsmightbecreatedasaresultofstimulusexpenditure
• Thegradualshifttowardsservicessectors–forwhichenergyintensityismuchlowerthanprimary
orsecondarysectors–couldcreateupto20millionnewjobs.
Conclusions
In2020,whileChina’smacro-shifttowardslowerenergyuseperunitofGDPwillleadtobetween
11.49and17.38millionfewerjobsbeingcreatedintraditionalsectors,thecombinationoftargetsand
investmentinrenewableandnewenergysectors(6.46to6.78millionjobscreated)andthemacro-
shifttowardsservicessectors(upto20millionjobscreated)appearlikelytobringaboutanetgainin
jobsoverall.Clearlynotallofthesejobsarelowcarbon,althoughthesetrendsarelikelytoleadtoa
decouplingofemissionsfromeconomicgrowthandperhaps(ifthedeploymentofrenewableenergy
isdeepenough)toanabsolutereductioninemissions.
Asidefromsustainedgovernmentpoliciestoachieveenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergy
deploymentandtheinvestmentofChina’sstimulusmoneyasplanned,thegovernmentwillneedto
prioritiseinvestmentinskillstoensurethatworkersareequippedtotakeadvantageofnewenergy
andservicesectorjobs.Inaddition,newsocialinsuranceschemeswillbeevenmorenecessaryto
supportthoseunskilledworkerswhowillstruggletofindemploymentinahigherskilledeconomy.
References
HoggC(2009)‘Chinesemigrantjoblossesmount’,BBCNewsonline,2February,availableat
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7864293.stm
MengJianJun(2002)China'sChallenge:Employmentandunemployment,Tokyo:ResearchInstitute
ofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,availableatwww.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/02040501.html
NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina(2009)StatisticalCommuniquéofthePeople’sRepublicof
Chinaonthe2008NationalEconomicandSocialDevelopment,February26,availableat
www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-02/27/content_7521441.htm
Germany:Jobsfromcapturingglobalsolarthermalmarkets
Background
Germany’srecentrecessionhasbeendeepbutmoreshort-livedthaninotherindustrialisedcountries.
ByNovember2009,ithadposteditssecondsuccessivequarterofeconomicgrowth,withGDP
expandingby0.7percent.AfterreachingahighinApril2009of8.3percent,unemploymentlevels
havenowfallento8.1percent(January2010),inpartbecauseoftheGermangovernment’spolicy
ofkurzarbeit,underwhichfirmscutworkinghoursratherthanjobsandthegovernmentpays60per
centofworkers’lostsalaries.
Nevertheless,newsofpotentiallow-carbonjobcreationinacountrystillcommittedtosignificant
heavyindustryislikelytobewelcome.Germany’srelativelylonghistoryofrenewableenergypolicy
hasalreadydemonstratedthatdecliningnumbersofjobsinconventionalenergy1 –atrend
attributabletothematurityoftechnologyasmuchasthegrowthofcompetingsectors–havebeen
morethanmatchedbyrisingrenewableenergyjobs.
Policyassumptions
AccordingtotheGermangovernment,policy,suchasitsfeed-intariffanddirectincentivestosupport
thedevelopmentofmanufacturingofspecifictechnologies,hashelpedcreatemarketsforrenewable
technologiesthatmaynototherwisehaveexisted.However,asthegovernmentobserves,‘thenet
employmentincrease[inforthcomingyears]willnothappenbyitself’andwillrequirecontinued
governmentintervention(BMU2006).
Aswellasthecreationofjobs,totalCO2 emissionsavoidedthroughtheuseofrenewableenergy
sourcesinGermanyamountedtoabout112milliontonnesofCO2 (74.4milliontCO2 inelectricity
generation,25.2milliontCO2 inheatgenerationand12.0milliontCO2 infuels)(BMU2009).
Between2000and2007,itisreportedthattheshareofrenewablesinGermany’sfinalenergy
consumptionincreasedfrom3.8to9.8percent.Yet,furtherexpansionofrenewableenergywillbe
necessaryifthegovernment’s18percenttargetshareby2020istobemet(cf.BMU2009).
Findings:jobsinrenewableenergy
In2007,thenumberofworkersemployedinrenewableenergysectors–principallyinwind,biomass
andsolarenergy–wasforthefirsttimegreaterthanthenumberofworkersemployedin
conventionalenergysectors.
• In2008,278,000peoplewereemployedinrenewableenergysectorscomparedwith238,171in
conventionalenergysectors.Between2007and2008,renewableenergyjobsincreasedby12per
cent(BMWi2009,BMU2009).
• By2020,thegovernmentestimatesthatemploymentintherenewableenergysectorwillincrease
tobetween353,500and400,000,includingatleast162,093inwind,29,159insolarPVand
54,240inbiomass/biogas(BMU2006).
Accordingtoexistingemploymentprojectionscenarios,itisanticipatedthatalargeproportionofjobs
inGermanywillbegeneratedasaresultofexpandingexportmarkets.In2004,exportsaccountedfor
approximately35percentofrenewableenergytechnologyproductionandservices(BMU2006).
Jochenetal (2002)estimateGermany’srenewabletechnologyexportsat350millionin2000and
projectthatGermanywillshare4–5percentoftheworldmarketby2010.
Findings:solarthermal
1.TheGerman
governmentestimates
Germanleadershipinsolartechnologiesiswelldocumentedandgrowthinbothdomesticandexport
that20,622jobswere solarthermalmarketsoffersthepotentialforsubstantialjobcreationinGermany.In2008,German
lostinconventional manufacturersofsolarthermalfacilitiesreportedanestimatedcombinedturnoverof1160million,
energysectorsbetween
2004and2008(BMWi
whichaccountedfor7.9percentofthetotalannualrevenueofGermanrenewableenergy
2009,BMU2009a). manufacturers(BMU2009).
Thispaperanalysestheimpactofpoliciesandmeasurespromotingsolarthermaltechnologyonjob
creationandmarketdevelopmentinGermany.Itcombinesnewanalysiswithexistingstudiesandfinds
that:
2.Thepaperanticipates
thatdomestic market • In2008,17,400peoplewereemployedinGermansolarthermalindustries,primarilyinheat
opportunitiesforsolar production2.Ofthattotal,15,000jobswereinmanufacturingand1,900jobswereinoperation
thermalwillalmost
andmaintenance.Thisrepresentsa44percentincreaseinthenumberofpeopleemployedin
exclusivelylieinheat
production,asopposed thissectorcomparedwith2007figures(BMU2009).
toelectricity
generation. • In2050,between36,000and238,600peoplecouldbeemployedbyGermancompaniesinthe
concentratedsolarthermalpower(CSP)industryalone.Thisrangeestimate,fromaprevious
3.Theauthorssuggest
thatGerman
studybyWuppertalInstitute(VallentinandViebahn2009),isbasedondifferentpercentage
manufacturerswillface scenarios(between10and34percent)oftheworldCSPmarketshareforGermancompanies3.
competitionfromUS Thisonlyaccountsforjobsincomponentmanufacturing,suchasthefabricationofparabolic
andSpanish
counterpartstocapture
troughs,towersandmirrors.
concentratedsolar
powerexportmarkets.
• GiventhatthereislittlepotentialforsolarthermalpowerproductioninGermany,almostallCSP
However,German productsandserviceswillbedestinedforexport,primarilytoMediterraneanandNorthAfrican
manufacturerspossess countries.Thus,manyemploymentopportunitiesinGermancompanieswillnotnecessarilybe
ahighlyspecialised
knowledgeandskills- basedinGermany,butinsteadlocatedclosetoplantsites.Thisisparticularlytrueofinstallation,
basewithregardtothe operationandmaintenancejobs.
manufacturingof
specificplant Conclusions
components,suchas
receivers,mirrorsand Governmentpolicyframeworksandcarefullydesignedsupportmechanismshavebeencrucialforthe
heatstoragefacilities, expansionofrenewableenergytechnologiesinGermany4,particularlyasthesetechnologiesremain
andarethereforelikely
toaccruesubstantial relativelyexpensivecomparedwithconventionalenergysources.Thesolarthermalindustry,heavily
jobnumbersinthis reliantongovernmentsubsidies,isacaseinpoint:whenstatesupportforinvestorsandend-users
stageofthevalue wastemporarilywithdrawnin2004,themarketslumped.
chain.
Yet,withsteady,targetedgovernmentsupportandaconcomitantupsurgeinthenumberofGerman
4.TheGerman
experiencehighlights solarthermalmanufacturers,Germanyiswellplacedtogainjobsfromtheexpansionofthesolar
theneedforpolicies thermalmarket,bothathomeandabroad.However,employmentgeneratedinthesolarthermal
andmeasuresthatare sectorisunlikelytocompensatewhollyforjoblossesinconventionalGermanenergysectors.Aswith
designedtotakeinto
accountthedifferent othercountrystudiesinthispaper,skillsdevelopmentprogrammesandmeasurestosupportthe
featuresandpurposeof redeploymentofworkerstoclean-energyindustrieswillbenecessaryifGermanyistomakemaximum
developedanddiffused
useoftheopportunitiesbroughtaboutbyinternationallow-carbondevelopment.
technologies.For
instance,whilefeed-in
tariffshavebeen
effectiveinpromoting
References
renewableelectricity
generation,theyare BMWi– FederalMinistryofEconomicsandTechnology(2009)Energiedaten–nationaleund
lessrelevantto
internationaleEntwicklung(Energydata–nationalandinternationaldevelopment).Availableat:
renewableheat
generation.Inthecase www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Navigation/Energie/energiestatistiken.html
ofsolarthermalheat
production,mandated BMU– FederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(2009)Gross
renewableheatuse EmploymentfromRenewableEnergyinGermanyintheYear2008:Afirstestimate. Berlin:BMU.
supportedbydirect
Availableat:www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/ee_bruttobeschaeftigung
subsidiesforbusinesses
andhomeownersare _08_en_bf.pdf
important.Thenewly-
introduced2009 BMU– FederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)
RenewableEnergy RenewableEnergy:EmploymentEffects Berlin:BMU.Availableat:
HeatingActisastep
forward:itsetsatarget
www.bmu.de/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/employment_effects_061211.pdf
of14percentofheat
productionfrom
JochemE,MadlenerRandMannsbartW(2002)RenewableEnergyTechnologyDiffusion:Prospects
renewablesourcesby oftheGermanandSwissIndustryintheWorldMarkets.WorldRenewableEnergyCongressVII.
2020andprovides Availableat:www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaabshic
financialincentivesto
renewableheatend- Vallentin,DandViebahnP(2009)ÖkonomischeChancenfürdiedeutscheIndustrieresultierendaus
users,intherangeof
50millionperannum
einerweltweitenVerbreitungvonCSP(ConcentratedSolarPower)–Technologien.Availableat
by2012. www.wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_wiprojekt/Chancen_Verbreitung_CSP.pdf
India: Jobcreationthroughthedevelopmentofwind,solarPVand
biofuelmarkets
Background
Despitebeingtheworld’s10thlargesteconomyandwithaservicessectorthatnowaccountsfor
almostone-thirdofIndia’sGDP,25percentofitspopulationremainsextremelypoor.India’s
labourforceisaround520millionwithanofficialunemploymentrateofaround7percent,but
becauseofitslevelsofpoverty,manypeopleareengagedininformalemploymentorascasual
agriculturalworkersandsotheaccuracyofthisfigureishardtojudge.1
In2008,India’seconomygrewby7.4percentinspiteofweakerdemandforitsproductsand
servicesfrommanytroubledindustrialisedeconomies.Thislevelofgrowthisleadingtoincreased
demandforenergy.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyestimatesthattomeetitsfutureenergy
needs,Indiawillneedtoexpanditsgrosscapacitytoexceed400GWin2030.Thiswillinclude
extendingelectricitysupplytothe56percentorsoofruralhouseholdswhocurrentlyhavenone.
Policyassumptions
ThegovernmentofIndiapublisheditsNationalActionPlanonClimateChange(NAPCC)in2008.
AttheheartoftheNAPCCisanoverarchinggoaltoreacharenewableenergytargetof10per
centby2012andeight‘missions’thatincludeambitioustargetsforthedeploymentofsolar
energyaswellasenhancedenergyefficiency(GovernmentofIndia2008).
ThispaperusesassumptionsaboutthepotentialofrenewableenergyinIndiafromtheNAPCC
andothersourcesandmakesprojectionsofjobcreationpotentialinthreesectors:wind,solarPV
andbiofuels.
Findings:wind
TheGovernmentofIndiaplanstoincreasewindcapacityby2GWperyeartoa2008baselineof
9.6GWalreadyinstalled.AccordingtoTheEnergyandResourcesInstitute(TERI,theGCN’sIndian
memberinstitute),windpowerinIndiacreates37.5jobspermega-watt(MW)duringconstruction
andinstallation(includingmanufacture)andfivejobsperMWinoperationandmaintenance.This
studythereforeestimatesthat:
• If2GWwereinstalledperyearto2020,atotalof243,225jobswouldbecreated.
1.Formore
informationonthe • Ifonly1GWwereinstalledperyearto2020,atotalof145,725jobswouldbecreated.
structureofIndia’s
economy,seetheCIA Ifwindpowerexpandsgloballyto352GWby20202 andIndia’sshareoftheglobalmarket
factbook increasesfrom7percentto10percent:
https://www.cia.gov/li
brary/publications/the
-world-factbook/
• Uptoanadditional288,500Indianjobscouldbecreated,largelyinmanufacturing.
geos/in.html
Findings:solar
2.TheInternational TheGovernmentofIndiaplanstoincreaseinstalledsolarphoto-voltaic(PV)capacityfrom100MW
EnergyAgency(2007)
assumesagrowthrate in2008to20GWin2020.UsingGreenpeace&EPIA(2006)assumptionsaboutthecreationof
of27%for2008,which jobsperpeakMWinstalled,thisstudyestimatesthat:
decreasesto10%by
2010,andthenfallsto • Upto234,350jobscouldbecreatedby2020ifgovernmenttargetsaremet.
4%by2030.By2035,
thegrowthrate • Upto117,175jobscouldbecreatedby2020ifgovernmenttargetsareonlyhalfmet.
stabilisesat1%.
TheseestimatesonlytakeintoaccountIndianmanufacturing,installation,operationand
3.Muchofthearea maintenancetosupplytheIndianmarket.IfsolarPVexpandsgloballyandIndiaexpandsits
plantedwould
thereforenotdisplace manufacturingcapacity,thenclearlythesenumberscouldbesignificantlygreater.
othercropsandwould,
intheory,leadto Findings:biofuels
additionalemployment
invillages(Government TheGovernmentofIndiaplanstoraise3millionbiofuelhectares‘substantiallyonwastelands’3 in
ofIndia2006). 200,000villagesandtoraiseafurther4millionhectaresofplantationtocover100,000industries.
Accordingtogovernmentprojections,thiscouldleadtothecreationofonedirectjobperhectarein
establishingandmanagingplantationsandafurther15jobspervillagebothdirectlyfromprocessing
thecropsandindirectlythroughincreasedcommercialactivityandavailabilityofcheaperenergy
supply.
Thisstudythereforefindsthat:
• Upto5millionjobscouldbecreatedasaresultofvillagecoverage.
• Upto5millionfurtherjobscouldresultfromindustrialbiofuelproduction.
Biofuelsarenotwithoutcontroversy,ofcourse.Thedangerthattheymaydisplacefoodcrops,
perpetuatepoorlypaid,rurallabourandleadtouncertainoutcomesintermsofthecontrolof
greenhousegasemissionsareallfactorsthatmustbeweighedagainstthelikelyhighnumbersofjobs
thegovernment’splanscouldcreate.
Conclusions
Renewableenergyproductionofferssignificantjobcreationprospects:inwind,solarPVandbiofuels
combined,usingthemostoptimisticassumptionsaboutlabourintensityandexpansionwithinthese
sectors,atotalofalmost10.5millionnewjobscouldbecreated.However,thevastmajorityofthese
jobsarelikelytobecreatedinIndia’spushtoincreasetheuseofbiofuelsinruralcommunitiesand
smallandmedium-sizedindustry.
Theremainingnewjobs–inwindpowerandsolarPV–areneverthelessworthcreatingbecausethey
willnotonlyaddtoIndia’shigh-waged-high-qualityjobsportfolio,butalsobecausetheywillhelp
positionIndiatotakeadvantageofgrowingexportmarketsinthesesectors.Forinstance,inwind
energy,ifthereisambitiousglobalinstallationthenmorethanaquarterofamillionIndianjobsmay
result.
Aswithothercountriesinthisstudy,torealisethehighernumberssuggestedhere,Indiawillhaveto
pursuethecreationofnewenergymarketsaggressivelytoensureitsaspirationsaremet.Itwillalso
needtoinvestintrainingtoensureanadequatenumberofworkersareabletofillhighlyskilled
renewableenergyjobs.
References
GovernmentofIndia(2006)NationalMissiononDecentralizedBiomassEnergyforVillageIndustries,
availableathttp://pmindia.nic.in/nac/communication/biomass_energy.pdf
GreenpeaceInternationalandEPIA(2006) SolarGenerationIV–2007:Solarelectricityforoverone
billionpeopleandtwomillionjobsby2020,availableat
www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/solargen3.pdf
InternationalEnergyAgency(2007)WorldEnergyOutlook2007,availableat
www.iea.org/weo/2007.asp
Nigeria: Creatingjobsinsmallhydropowerandnaturalgas
Background
1.Generatingcapacityin Sincetheearly2000s,Nigeriahasregisteredsteady,incrementalannualGDPgrowththankslargelyto
Octoberhadincreasedto increasedoilexportsandhighinternationalcrudeprices.However,growthcontractedfrom6.4per
about2600MW,butis
stillfaroffthe6000MW
centin2007to5.3percentattheendof2008(CIA2009),followingtheonsetoftheglobal
promisedbytheFederal recessionandaslow-downindemandforoil.Despitegovernmentreformefforts,thecountry
Governmentby continuestobehamperedbyacuteinfrastructureproblemsandasituationinwhich70percentof
December2009(PHCN
dailyoperationreport).
thepopulationlivebelowthepovertyline(ibid).
2.Anewproposed
Economicoutputhasbeenseriouslyconstrainedbytheongoingpowersectorcrisis,whichhas
CleanEnergyBillwillbe plungedtotalgeneratingcapacityofconventionalpowerdowntounder2000MWfromatotal
debatedinearly2010. installedcapacityofabout8000MW.1 Asaresultofpoorpowersupply,industries,especiallyinthe
3.Naturalgasreserves manufacturingsector,havewitnessedagradualdeclineinoperationalcapacityandinmanycases
currentlystandatabout productionhasmovedtoneighbouringWestAfricancountries.Thishasresultedinsubstantialjob
5.30trillionm3,placing lossesthroughouttheNigerianeconomy.Today,approximately40millionpeopleareinunemployment
Nigeriatheseventh
largestnaturalgas (allafrica.com2009).
reservesintheworld.
(Cf.endof2007data Nigeria’shungerforenergycontinuestogrow.In2006,agovernmentstudyprojectedamediumto
fromEIAWorldEnergy longtermelectricitydemandof30,000MWand192,000MWrespectively.Thispaperfocusesonthe
Outlookto2030;Shell prospectsofsmall-scalehydropowerandnaturalgastechnologiestohelpovercomeNigeria’senergy
GlobalScenarios2025;
ECWorldEnergy crisis,provideincreasedenergysupply,reduceemissionsandcreatenewjobopportunities.
Technical&Climate
Outlook2030.) Policyassumptions
4.Naturalgasproduces The2005RenewableEnergyMasterPlan(REMP)setsoutaroadmapforincreasingtheroleofclean-
feweremissionsthan energysourcesinNigeria’spowergenerationmix.ThePlanenvisages15,903MWofelectricityfrom
otherconventional renewableenergyby2015andpinpointssolar,smallhydropower,windandbiomassenergy
energysources.
generatingsystemsasintegraltechnologiestothisprocess2.
5.Nigeriaisstillratedas
theworld’sbiggestflarer TheNigeriangovernmenthasindicatedthatnaturalgas3 willcontinuetoplayanimportantrolein
ofassociatednatural powergeneration.4 Sotoowillassociatedgasfromcrudeoilproduction,which–despitegovernment
gas.TheWorldBank effortstopreventthis–continuestobeflaredintotheatmosphere5.The2008NationalGasMaster
(ESMAP2004)estimates
thatNigerialosesabout plansetsoutthegovernment’splanstodevelopthedomesticgasmarketandmodernisegas
US$2.5billionannually transmissionandutilisationinfrastructure.Inlinewiththe2005ElectricityPowerSectorReformAct,it
asaresultofflaring.
alsoenvisagesatransitiontowardsprivatesectoranddecentralisedownershipofelectricitygenerating
6.Personal gasplantsfromtheerstwhilepublicsectorverticallyintegratedpowerutility.
CommunicationtoProf.
R.‘LayiFagbenlefrom Findings:smallhydropower
Dr.A.A.Esan,Technical
Director/ TheREMPtargetsanincreaseinsmallandmicrohydropowerusagefromthe37MWcurrently
CEO,UNIDO–Regional installedtoapproximately2000MWby2025.Thiswouldaccountforover10percentofNigeria’s
CentreforSmall
HydropowerinAfrica,
totalelectricityproductionand66percentofitsrenewableenergycontribution.
Abuja,Nigeria(2009).
AccordingtoaUNIDO-RC-SHPAfricastudy6,atypicalmicrohydroplantof75.1KWgenerates120
7.SHPisarelatively directenergyinfrastructurejobsinconstruction,installationandoperationandmaintenance.Using
low-costrenewable existingdatafromtwoadditionalstudies(Zarma2006andEnergyCommissionofNigeriaandUNDP
energy,idealforrural
electrification,
(2005)intoSHPdevelopmentinNigeria,verifiedbyinterviewswithindustryexpertsandgovernment
particularlyinareas officials,thepresentstudyfindsthat:
wherethereisno
nationalelectrical • Approximately14,800MWgrosspotentialhydrocapacityremainsuntappedacrossNigeriaand
distributionnetwork. offersstrongpotentialforruralSHPdevelopments7.
SHPprojectsare
consideredtohavea • IftheSHPsites/schemesidentifiedinexistingstudiesweretobedeveloped,thiscouldcreateas
relativelylow
environmentalimpact
manyas88,000directjobs(asabove).
comparedtolargehydro
schemes.http://unidorc
• Anadditional281,200indirectjobscouldbecreatedinsupplierindustriesincludingagro-
.org/nigeria/n_shp.htm processing,sawmillingandlocalcraftenterprises.
Findings:naturalgas
Projectionsofjobsinthegaspowergenerationsectorinthispapertakeintoconsiderationexisting
policiestodrivegasplantinvestment,inadditiontoemploymentdatafromthenationalutility,the
PowerHoldingCompanyofNigeria(PHCN).Thepaperestimatesthat:
• OnaveragesevenjobsperMWpowerproducedcanbecreatedintheinstallation,operationand
maintenanceofatypicalgaspowerplant,aswellasinupstreamgasgatheringandprocessing,
anddownstreampipelinetransmissionanddistribution.
• Approximately37,000MWofnewinstalledelectricitygenerationcapacitycouldcreate260,000
directjobs(asabove).
• Anadditionalindirect40,700jobscouldbecreatedinspecificareasofthesupplychain,including
componentmanufacturingofcompressorsandgasmeters,andlubeoilproductionforcompressor
stationsandtransportationsystems.
UnderthePetroleumIndustryBill(PIB2007),alocalcontentrequirementhasbeenintroducedwhich
mandatestheuseofNigerianlabourintheoilandgasindustries8.Consequently,thispaper
anticipatesthatthemajorityofjobopportunitiesidentifiedwillbefilledbyNigerianworkers.
8.Nigerianlabouris
compulsoryfor95per
centofalllocal
Conclusions
constructionjobs,and TheNigerianFederalGovernment’sSeven-PointAgendamakespowerproductionacentralpriority
75percentof
managerialand
thatwillimprovelivelihoods,tackleunemploymentandstimulateeconomicgrowth.Increased
supervisoryjobs.Any electricitygenerationthroughcleanersourcesofpowerwillalsocontributesignificantlytoreducing
newgaspowerproject Nigeria’sgreenhousegasemissions.
willrequire80percent
ofjobstobereserved Thispapercallsforstrongergovernmentpolicyframeworkstospurgrowthinbothsectorsand,
forNigeriancitizens.
therefore,maximisetheirjobcreationpotential.Thisincludesasupportivefiscalregimetoincentivise
9.In2008,theNigerian privatesectorinvestmentsinlow-carbonsectors9 andstrongerregulatoryframeworkstoattract
governmentintroduced financingfromcarbonmarketsandtheCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM).Upfrontpublicfinance
aMulti-YearTariff
Orderwhichoffersa willalsoneedtobemobilisedtosupportthecapitalcostsofSHPprojectsandinfrastructure
subsidyforcompanies development,particularlyinthegaspowersector.
investinginnewplants,
includingrenewable AsNigeriamovestowardsaliberalisedandcleanerpowersector,thegovernmentwillalsoneedto
powersources. ensurethatpotentialjoblossesare,wherepossible,minimised,andthatprogrammesareinplaceto
However,this
programmehasyetto supportthere-employmentofworkers,particularlythosecurrentlyworkingindieselgenerator
befullyimplemented. importingfirmsandothercarbon-intensiveenergyindustries.
References
Allafrica.com(2009)‘Nigeria:TheUnemploymentCrisis’,16March,availableat
http://allafrica.com/stories/200903160028.html
CIA(2009) WorldFactbook–Nigeria,availableathttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-
world-factbook/geos/ni.html
EnergyCommissionofNigeriaandUNDP(2005)RenewableEnergyMasterPlan Abuja:Nigeria
ESMAP(2004)StrategicGasPlanforNigeria,JointUNDP/WorldBankEnergyManagement
AssistanceProgram(ESMAP),availableat
www.esmap.org/filez/pubs/58200861713_strategicgasplanfornigeria.pdf
ZarmaIH(2006) HydroPowerResourcesinNigeria,Acountrypositionpaper. Presentedatthe2nd
HydroPowerforTodayConference,InternationalCentreonSmallHydroPower(IC-SHP),
Hangzhou,China.
SouthAfrica: Creatingjobsbyinvestinginrenewableenergy
Background
Afteraperiodofstableeconomicgrowthsincetheturnofthecentury,SouthAfrica’srealGDP
growthslowedto3.2percentin2009,asaresultoftheeconomicdownturn.Ofanactiveworkforce
of17.79million,22.9percentwereunemployedin2008(CIA2009).Inthefirsthalfof2009,nearly
halfamillionpeoplelosttheirjobsandafurther300,000joblosseswereexpectedbytheendofthe
year(TheEconomist2009).
TheeconomicstimuluspackageintroducedbytheSouthAfricangovernmentinFebruary2009is
gearedprimarilytowardsaZAR787billion(approximatelyUS$105billion)three-yearinfrastructure
1.Section3.6ofthe
roll-out.Thepackagecontainsseveralpriorityprogrammestotackleunemployment,includingan
StimulusPackage ExpandedPublicWorksProgrammeandplanstorestructuremacro-economicpolicyinfavourof
Frameworkrecognises employment-generatingexports,whichcouldalsohelpreduceSouthAfrica’sZAR64.5billiontrade
’theopportunitiesin
industriesthatcombat
deficit(Southafrica.info2009).
thenegativeeffectsof
climatechange’and
Althoughnotspecificallyearmarkedforfundinginthestimuluspackage,1 therenewableenergysector
callsforSouthAfricato hasbeenidentifiedbythegovernmentasaneffectivemeanstogenerateemploymentaswellas
’developstrong reduceemissions2.Thisisdespitesubstantialjobcutsintheelectricitygenerationsectorasawhole
capacityinthesegreen
technologiesand overthelast25years.Duringthistime,70,000jobshavebeenlostdespiteelectricitygeneration
industries’. increasingbyover60percentbetween1980and2000(EnergyandDevelopmentResearchCentre
2003)3.
2.Forinstance,the
2003WhitePaperon
RenewableEnergy Policyassumptionsandeconomy-wideestimates
recognisesthejob TheSouthAfricangovernment’s2004NationalClimateChangeResponseStrategystatesthat
creationpotentialof
low-carbon decarbonisationisconsistentwiththecountry’skeysocialandeconomicobjectives,includingpoverty
technologiesandthat alleviation,jobcreationandsustainabledevelopment.Tohelpinformpolicyresponsestoclimate
theyaremorelabour-
change,thegovernmenthascommissionedtheLongTermMitigationScenarios(LTMS2007).The
intensivethan
conventionalenergy mostambitiousscenarioidentifiedinthisdocument,the‘requiredbysciencescenario’,envisages
technologies. stabilisationofdomesticemissionsat30-40percentof2003levelsby20504 andsuggeststhat:
3.Estimatesofcurrent • Short-termefficiencytoreduceemissionsby9,000tonnesin2050(thusachieving43percentof
jobsintheelectricity
thescenario’sgoal)willleadtonetjoblossesofaround0.3percentin2015.
sectorrangefrom
between30,000-
65,000.Thisdatais
• However,medium-termefficiencytoreduceemissionsby13,800tonnesin2050(64percentof
basedonAGAMA scenariogoal)willleadtoanetincreaseinbothGDPandemploymentofapproximately1per
(2003)andinformal centin2015.Thiswouldrequireastrongpolicyresponsetoachieve,interalia,50percentof
interviewswithsenior
representativesinthe
electricitygeneratedbyrenewablesourcesin2050.
coalindustryand
electricitysectorand Findings:renewables
climatechangeexperts
Beyondtheeconomy-wideprojectionsoftheLTMS,thispaperdrawsonfindingsfromanearlierstudy
4.AgainstaBAU (AGAMA2003)tomakeassumptionsaboutthepotentialofrenewableenergyforjobcreationin
scenario,thistarget SouthAfrica.Thegovernment’s2003WhitePaperonRenewableEnergysetsashort-termtargetof
wouldrequire
emissionsreductionsof
generating10,000GwHoffinalenergyconsumptionfromrenewablesourcesby2014,whichequates
1300MtCO2-eqper toapproximately4percentoftotalelectricitysupply.
yearuntil2050.
ThisstudyestimatesthatifSouthAfricaweretoinsteadgenerate15percentofitselectricityfrom
5.Whilethereislikely renewableenergytechnologiesin2020,thiscouldcreateasmanyas36,400newdirectjobsand
tobeadeclinein
employmentin
109,100indirectjobs,withoutanyadditionalcosttotheeconomy5.
conventionalenergy
sector,thestudyfinds Findings:wind
thatthiswillnotbea
resultofanincreased Inthewindpowersector,thepaperestimates–conservatively,bytheauthors’admission–thata
uptakeofRETs.In typical37.5MWwindfarmcouldgenerate3.7directjobsperMWinmanufacturingandinstallation,
2020,itestimatesthat andafurther1.0jobsperMWinoperationandmaintenance(seeAGAMA2003).Basedonvarying
therewillbe15,600
peopleemployedinthe assumptionspertainingtotheinstalledcapacitypotentialanddegreeoflocalmanufactureinvolved,
coalindustry. thestudycalculatesthat:
• Ifrenewablesweretoaccountfor15percentoftotalinstalledelectricitycapacityin2020and
windpowercontributed50percentofthistotal,22,400newdirectjobscouldbecreated.
• Ifhowever,renewableswereonlytoaccountfor7.6percentoftotalinstalledelectricitycapacity
andwindcontributed50percent,approximately9,000newdirectjobscouldbecreated.
Importantly,thestudysuggeststhatnotalljobsgeneratedwillnecessarilybedomesticallybased.
Windtechnologiesarelikelytobeimportedfrom,andhencemanufacturingjobslocatedin,other
countries.Instead,itisestimatedthatthemajorityoflocaljobsinwindpowergenerationwillbein
professionalandmanagementservices.
Findings:solarPV
Thepaperestimatesthattheconstruction,transportationandinstallationofa2-KWpphotovoltaic
arraycouldgenerateatotalof35.5jobspermegawattinstalled.Usingthesameassumptionsas
above,itsuggeststhat:
• Ifrenewablesweretoaccountfor15percentoftotalinstalledelectricitycapacityin2020and
solarPVcontributed0.5percentofthistotal,2,475newdirectjobscouldbecreated.
• Ifrenewablesweretoaccountfor7.6percentoftotalinstalledelectricitycapacityandsolarPV
contributed0.5percent,approximately1,000newdirectjobscouldbecreated.
Althoughjobestimatestendtobelowerinthesolarsector,thispaperarguesthatSouthAfrica
possessesthenecessarytechnicalskillsbasetofilljobsinPVmanufactureandinstallation.Thus,with
therightpolicytoolsandincentivestoattractinvestment,theindustryofferssubstantialdomesticjob
creationpotential.ItalsonotesthatSouthAfricaisattheforefrontofcommercialisingsuper-thinsolar
6.TheSouthAfrican
DepartmentofEnergy technology,whichcouldbemanufacturedforregionalexportandleadtofurtherjobcreation.
andtheWorldBank
haverecentlyissueda Conclusions
callforconsultantsin
theenergysectorto
Significantopportunitiesforemploymentlieinclean-energysectorsandcanbeharnessediftheSouth
helpundertakea Africangovernmentscalesupitsrenewableenergyambitions6.Targetedgovernmentpoliciestoincrease
revisionofthe2003 localdemandforpriorityrenewabletechnologies–suchassolarPV–andmeasurestoencourage
WhitePaperonthe
RenewableEnergy.This investmentinthedomesticmarketwillbenecessarytoensurejobopportunitiesaremaximised.
islikelytoincludea
newtargetfor Likeinothercountriesinthisstudy,theSouthAfricangovernmentwillneedtodeterminefuture
renewableenergy humancapacityneedsinrenewableenergysectorsandprioritiseskillsdevelopmentaccordingly,
generationinthe throughpublictrainingprogrammesandsectoralinitiatives.
regionof10-15per
centby2020.
References
AGAMAEnergy(2003)EmploymentpotentialofRenewableEnergyinSouthAfrica.Constantia:
AGAMAEnergyPTYLtdavailableat:http://reeep-
sa.org/wirec/index2.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=3&Itemid=7
CIA(2009)WorldFactbook–SouthAfrica,https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/sf.html
Economist,The(2009)‘SouthAfrica:LateStarter’,availableat
www.economist.com/businessfinance/displayystorycfm?story_id=14258934
EnergyandDevelopmentResearchCentre(2003)PoliciesandMeasuresforRenewableEnergyand
EnergyEfficiencyinSouthAfrica, availableatwww.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications-
pre2004/03EDRC_PAMS.pdfv
RepublicofSouthAfricaDepartmentofEnvironmentalAffairsandTourism(2007)LongTerm
MitigationScenarios:StrategicOptionsforSouthAfrica. Pretoria:DEAT
Southafrica.info(2009)‘Revisedtradedeficit“positivenews”‘,
www.southafrica.info/business/economy/trade-050209.htm
UnitedKingdom:Jobsandthelow-carbontransition
Background
TheUKgovernmenthastargetedthedevelopmentoflow-carbonsectorsandindustriesasameansto
spurjobcreationandrevitalisetheeconomy.InJuly2009,itpublisheditsLow-CarbonIndustrial
Strategy(LCIS),settingouthowtheUKcancapitaliseoneconomicopportunitiesinlow-carbonand
environmentalgoodsandservices,removebarrierstomarketforclean-energytechnologies,and
providedecentjobopportunities.
Thisnewactivistapproachfortransitioningtoalow-carboneconomyissetagainstabackdropof
risingunemploymentfollowingtheonsetoftheglobaleconomicrecession.ByJune2009,2.4million
peoplewereunemployedintheUK,upfrom1.7millionatthesamepointin2008(ONS2009).
Despitejoblessnesslevelsslowingto2.46millioninJanuary2010,unemploymentisstillexpectedto
risefurtherthisyear.
Itisunclearwhetherthoseareasoftheeconomythathaveprovidedlarge-scaleemploymentinthe
past–suchasthefinancialservicesandrealestatesectors– arelikelytorecoverfullyanytimesoon.
Inthelongerterm,employmentinsomesectorsmaybesubstantiallyreduced.1 Asaresult,otherareas
oftheeconomywillneedtoexpandifemploymentistoreturntopre-recessionlevels,whichis
forecasttohappenin2016(Cliftonetal 2009).
Policyassumptionsandestimates
Thefuturegrowthofclean-energyindustriesiscentraltothegovernment’splanstoreduceemissions
by34percentby2020and80percentby2050,comparedwith1990levels.Rapidandsustained
1.Forinstance,the
governmentand deploymentofrenewabletechnologieswillalsobenecessaryiftheUKistocomplywithitsobligation
oppositionpartieshave undertheEUtoprovide15percentofitselectricitythroughrenewablesourcesby20202.
eachindicatedthatin
ordertoreducethe TheUKpapernotesthatexistingjobforecastsforrenewablesectorsvarywidelyandarebasedona
UK’sfiscaldeficit, setofdifferentassumptionsandvariables.Arecentstudycommissionedbythegovernment(Douglas
publicspendingwill
needtobecut,which Westwood2008)estimatesthatiftheUKmeetsthetarget,proposedbytheRenewablesAdvisory
willhaveaserious Board(RAB),of38.5GWofinstalledrenewableenergycapacityby2020,asmanyas133,000new
impactonthescaleof
jobscouldbecreated3.
publicsector
employment.
Offshorewind,whichformsthefocusofanearlieripprstudy(Bird2009),isoneindustryinwhicha
2.However,withonly largeproportionoffutureclean-energyjobsmightfall.TheUKcurrentlyhastheworld’slargest
5.6GWofelectricity installedcapacityforoffshorewindandgovernmenthassetoutambitiousplansforexpansion4.
fromrenewablesources
installedin2006,itis
However,fewstudiesofferestimatesofthenumberofjobsthatcouldbecreatedintheindustry.A
questionablewhether recentreportbytheCarbonTrust(2008)providesanexception:itsuggeststhatif29GWofoffshore
thistargetis windcapacityisinstalledin2020,thiswouldcreatebetween40,000and70,000jobsalongthesupply
achievable.
chain.
3.Inaseparate
analysiscommissioned
AnadditionalstudycommissionedbytheBritishWindEnergyAssociation(Boettcheretal 2009)looks
bythegovernment atjobscreatedinthewindpowerindustryasawhole,accordingtothreealternativescenarios,and
(2009),Innovas findsthat:
estimatesatotalof
400,000jobsby2015 • 22GWtotalwindcapacity(offshoreandonshore)couldcreate23,000jobsby2020.
inlow-carbonand
environmentalgoods • 27GWtotalwindcapacity(offshoreandonshore)couldcreate36,000jobsby2020.
andservicesasa
whole,including • 34GWtotalwindcapacity(offshoreandonshore)couldcreate57,000jobsby2020.
renewableenergy
sectors. DouglasWestwood(2008)adoptsanalternativeapproachbyforecastingjobscreatedinthewind
4.UndertheRAB
sectoraccordingtothegovernment’sabilitytoattractturbinemanufacturerstotheUK.Itanticipates
scenario(above), thecreationof:
offshorewindaccounts
for47percentofthe • 5,000newjobsby2020underalow-scalescenario(onemanufacturerand10percentof
2020targetfor installedcapacitymanufacturedintheUK).
renewableelectricity
generationcapacity. • 14,000newjobsby2020underamid-scalescenario(twomanufacturersand25percentof
installedcapacitymanufacturedintheUK).
• 34,000newjobsby2020underahigh-scalescenario(threemanufacturersand50percentof
installedcapacitymanufacturedintheUK).
Althoughthesestudiesdiffersubstantiallyintheirassumptionsandfindings,itisgenerallyagreedthat
themajorityofjobsinthecombinedwindindustryarelikelytoariseintwostagesofthesupplychain:
manufacturingandinstallation.However,notalljobswillnecessarilybelocal.5 GiventheUK’slackof
manufacturingbaseforrenewableenergytechnologies,windturbinesarelikelytobeimportedfrom
oversees(CarbonTrust2008).Instead,theUKmightbebetterpositionedtogeneratedomesticjobs
incomponentmanufacturing,suchasthemanufactureoftowersandfoundationswhichcoulddraw
onexistingskillsandknowledgebasesintheoffshoreoilandgassectors.6
Givenitsrelativelymatureservicesector,theUKmayalsocapturejobsinfinancialandlegalservices
fordomesticandinternationalmarketsforoffshorewind.Indeed,theCarbonTrust(2008)estimates
thattheUKcanaccruehalfofallservicejobsintheglobaloffshorewindindustryby2020.
Conclusions
Inordertofosterthegrowthof,andmaximisejobopportunitiesin,renewableenergysectors,the
papercallsfortargetedgovernmentinterventionthatprioritisesareasofstrategicinterestfortheUK.
Intheoffshorewindindustry,greatergovernmentsupportforRD&D,betterincentivesfordevelopers
undertheRenewablesObligation(RO),andremovalofbarrierstodelivery(includingdelaysinthe
planningsystem,problemsaccessingthegridandinadequateportinfrastructure)willallbenecessary
iftheindustry’spotentialforgrowthisadequatelyharnessed.
Aproactivegovernmentskillspolicyisneededtoaddressshortagesintechnical,job-specificand
generic‘green’skillsamongtheBritishworkforce7.Thepaperalsosuggeststhatplanstostimulate
clean-energyindustriesshouldcontributetoreducinginequalitiesinthelabourmarket.Althoughlow-
carbonjobsarerelativelywell-paidandoffergoodcareerprospects,thegovernmentshouldconsider
linkingtheLow-CarbonIndustrialStrategywithitswelfarereformagendatoassistthelong-term
unemployedbackintowork,andintroduceprogrammesthatpromotefemaleemploymentinlow-
carbonsectors.
5.Onlyjobsin Finally,thepapercallsforthegovernmenttoidentifyjobs–incoal,gasandothercarbon-intensive
operationand
maintenance(O&M) sectors– atriskfromthelow-carbontransitionanddevelopstrategieswithemployees,tradeunions
willnecessarilybe andRegionalDevelopmentAgenciestoprotectjobswherepossibleandsupportemployeesinfinding
locatedintheUK, newwork.Thiswillnotonlyminimisethepoliticalriskassociatedwithdecarbonisation,butmore
owingtotheneedfor
themtobeinclose importantlyensurethatthetransitionisfair.
proximitytowind
farms.
6.Despitethis,there References
arestillhopesthatthe BirdJ(2009)GreenJobs:ProspectsforcreatingjobsfromoffshorewindintheUK,London:ippr
UKwillbeableto
developfulloffshore BoettcherM,PederNielsenN,andPetrickK(2009)ACloserLookattheDevelopmentofWind,Wave
windmanufacturing(as
opposedtoselected andTidalEnergyintheUK:Employmentopportunityandchallengesinthecontextofrapid
component industrygrowth London:Bain&Company
manufacturing).For
instance,ClipperWind CarbonTrust(2008)Offshorewindpower:bigchallenge,bigopportunity, London:CarbonTrust,
hasaresearchcentrein availableat:www.carbontrust.co.uk/publications/publicationdetail?productid=CTC743
Blyth,NorthEast
EnglandandMitsubishi CliftonJ,DolphinTandReevesR(2009)BuildingaBetterBalancedUKEconomy:Wherewilljobsbe
mayalsosetup
factoriesintheregion. createdinthenexteconomiccycle? London:ippr,availableat:
www.ippr.org/publicationsandreports/publication.asp?id=683
7.Inthewindindustry,
BWEApointtoa DouglasWestwood(2008)SupplyChainConstraintsontheDeploymentofRenewableElectricity
shortageinqualified Technologies,ReportforBERR,DouglasWestwood,availableat:
electricalengineers,
turbinetechniciansand www.berr.gov.uk/files/file46792.pdf
projectmanagers
amongtheworkforce OfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)(2009)Labourmarketstatistics,14August2009,availableat:
(Boettcheretal 2009). www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=12
UnitedStates: Buildingsmartgridsandcomparativeadvantage
Background
InOctober2009,unemploymentintheUSroseto10.2percent,itshighestlevelsince1983(US
BureauofLaborStatistics2010).Despitesincefallingto9.7percentinJanuary2010,itisnot
surprisingthattheObamaadministrationhasmadethecreationofjobsinnewsectors,includinglow
carbon,acentrepieceofitsagendainCongressandafocusofitseconomicrecoverypackage.
GroupssuchastheApolloAlliancehavealsobroughttheopportunityforjobcreationthrough
investmentinlow-carbonenergytogreaterpublicattention.However,abacklashhasbegunrecently
asitbecameclearthatUSstimulusenergyinvestmentsweresupportingthecreationofjobsinother
countries,mostnotablyinChina(see,forinstance,Pasternak2009).Whiletheaccuracyofsuchclaims
cannoteasilybeverified,asthisstudyshows,thecreationofmarketsinonecountrycanleadtonew
jobsbothinthatcountryandelsewhere.
Policyassumptions
The$787billionAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentAct(ARRA),signedintolawinFebruary2009,
containsalmost$100billiontosupportcleanenergyand‘greencollar’jobprogrammes.InJune2009,
theUSHouseofRepresentativespassedtheAmericanCleanEnergyandSecurityAct(ACESA).A
similarbillisnowbeingreviewedintheSenate.
AnalysisofARRAandACESAconcludedthatthetwopiecesoflegislationcouldstimulate$150billion
inclean-energyinvestmentsannuallyoverthenextdecade.Studiessuggest:
• OfficialestimatesofthelikelyimpactARRAsuggestthat700,000cleanenergyjobswillbe
createdfromitsvariousprogramsby2012,with63,000createdsofar(TheWhiteHouse2009).
• ARRAandACESAcouldgenerateanet1.7millionnewjobsinenergyefficiency,renewable
energy,andothergreenjobsectors(PERIandCenterforAmericanProgress2009).
• ACESAcouldgenerate425,000newefficiency-relatedjobsby2030;increasingthelevelof
investmentcouldswellthisnumbertoonemillionnewjobs(Laitner2009).
Thesestudiesvaryinassumptionsandfindingsbutunanimouslyconcludenotonlythatinvestmentin
alow-carboneconomycanproducethousandsofjobsintheUS,butalsothatbolderinvestments
resultinhigherjobcreation.1
Findings:SmartGrid
Theterm‘SmartGrid’referstoagroupofdigitaltechnologiesandsystemswiththeabilityto
transformelectricitygeneration,transmission,distribution,storage,meteringandgridmaintenance.
Theyareanimprimaturofthelow-carboneconomy,allowingforgreaterefficiencyandcontrolof
powerusageandforaneclecticrangeofpowersourcestobeconnected.
WhileupgradingtheUSgrid–smartorotherwise–overthenexttwodecadesmayrequirean
estimated$1.5trillionofinvestment,implementingSmartGridtechnologycould,accordingto
1.Inaddition,the
AmericanSolarEnergy governmentestimates,savetheUnitedStates$638to$802billionover20years(U.S.Departmentof
Societyfoundthat Energy2009a).The2007AmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActprovides$4.5billionfordeploying
aggressivedeployment SmartGridtechnologies(U.S.DepartmentofEnergy2009b).
ofenergyefficiency
andrenewableenergy Thesmartmeter–themostmatureinthegroupoftechnologiesrequiredforcreatingtheSmartGrid
technologycouldcreate
4.5millionnewjobsby –providesaproxyforSmartGridprojectsfromwhichjobsimpactscanbeextrapolated.Usingdata
2030.Furtherreports froma2009study(KEMA2009),verifiedthroughaseriesofin-depthinterviewswithcompanies
haveanalysedjob involvedinSmartGriddeploymentintheUSandbasedontheinstallationof128millionsmart
impactsonspecific
industriesorstates meters–smartmetersforvirtuallyeveryUSconsumer–thisstudyfindsthat:
(see,forexample,Duke
UniversityCenteron • Around2,000jobsperonemillionsmartmeters–atotalof278,600jobs–canbecreatedduring
Globalization, theinstallationphase,notionallyfromnowuntil2012.
Governanceand
Competitiveness2009). • Post2012,a‘steadystate’from2012until2018wouldprovide139,700jobs.
• Whiletherewouldbejoblossesof26,200inthesteadystateperiod,mostlyinmeterreading,
whichwouldberenderedobsolete,therewouldbeanetgain,mostlyinmanufacturing.
TheinstallationofSmartGridtechnologiesintheEuropeanUnion(asaresultofthe20-20-20
package),Canada,Australia,Chinaandelsewherewillresultinarapidglobalexpansionindemand,
especiallyformanufacturedtechnologies.Assumingthatthiscreates250projects(thatis,250million
meters)by2015(seeforinstancePikeResearch2009)andtheUScancapture60percentofthe
manufacturingmarket,thisstudyfindsthat:
• Around920jobsperglobalmillionmeterprojectmightbecreatedintheUS.
• Thiscouldresultinupto138,000additionalUSjobsfromglobalinvestmentinsmartgrids.
Conclusions
ThepotentialforUSjobcreationthroughnewsmartgridprojectsinboththeUSandoverseasisan
importantrejoindertoclaimsthatUSinvestmentinlow-carbontechnologyiscreatingjobsoverseas.
However,theAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActhasa‘BuyAmerican’clause,whichmayhelp
stimulateUSjobsastheUSmarketexpands,butmayalsoencourageothercountriestointroduce
similarclausesandlockUSmanufacturersoutoftheirmarkets.
Thereisclearlyaneedtoretrainthetensofthousandsofmeterreaderswhosejobsmaybe
threatenedassmartgridsareintroduced,butthebenefitsofinvestinginsmartgridtechnology
appeartooutweightherisks.However,fastdeployment–bothintheUSandelsewhere–atthescale
envisagedinthisstudywillrequirecoordinationontechnologyandstandardsbetweengovernments.
References
DukeUniversityCenteronGlobalization,GovernanceandCompetitiveness(2009)Manufacturing
ClimateSolutions,availableatwww.cggc.duke.edu/environment/climatesolutions/
KEMA(2009)TheU.S.SmartGridRevolution:KEMA’sPerspectivesforJobCreation(Preparedforthe
GridwiseAlliance),January13,availableat
www.gridwise.org/assets/pdfs/KEMA_SmartGrid_Jobs_Creation_1_27_09.pdf
LaitnerJ(2009)ClimateChangePolicyasanEconomicRedevelopmentOpportunity:TheRoleof
ProductiveInvestmentsinMitigatingGreenhouseGasEmissions,AmericanCouncilforanEnergy-
EfficientEconomy,availableathttp://aceee.org/pubs/e098.htm
PasternackA(2009)‘“Chinese”WindFarminTexas:GreenJobsFAIL?’,2November,availableat
www.treehugger.com/files/2009/11/chinese-wind-farm-texas-green-jobs-fail.php
PERIandtheCenterforAmericanProgress(2009)TheEconomicBenefitsofInvestinginClean
Energy,June,availableatwww.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/06/pdf/peri_report.pdf
PikeResearch(2009)SmartMeters,availableatwww.pikeresearch.com/research/smart-meters
U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(2010)‘EmploymentSituationSummary’,23February,availableat
www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(2009a)WhataSmartGridMeanstoOurNation’sFuture:Summaryfor
Policy-Makers,availableatwww.oe.energy.gov/DocumentsandMedia/Policymakers.pdf
USDepartmentofEnergy(2009b)‘RenewableEnergyandSmartGridsSpurredbyEconomicStimulus
Act’,18February,availableat
http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/news_detail.cfm/news_id=12244
WhiteHouse,The(2009)ProgressReport:TheTransformationtoaCleanEnergyEconomyTheWhite
House,December152009,availableatwww.whitehouse.gov/administration/vice-president-
biden/reports/progress-report-transformation-clean-energy-economy#fn3
3.Conclusionsandrecommendations
ThecreationofjobsislikelytobesecondarytoGDPgrowthinmanypolicymakers’mindsandto
productivityinthemindsofindustryleaders.Theirassumptionwillbethatcombinedintheright
measure,growthandproductivitywillcreatenewjobs.However,bigeconomicchanges,suchasthe
recentfinanceandeconomiccrises,bringemploymentintosharperfocus.Theemergenceofaglobal,
low-carboneconomymayrepresentanothersuchchange.
RecentjoblossesintheUS,whichsomecommentatorsarenowsuggestingmayevenendangerthe
Democrats’majorityinonehouseofCongressifthetrendisnotreversedcomethe2010elections,
couldhaveaprofoundpoliticalcost.Similarly,inChina,theshort-termlossoftensofmillionsofjobs
inlate2008duetotheweakeningofdemandinexportmarketswas,accordingtosomeofficials,a
potentiallydestabilisingtrend(SouthAsiaAnalysisGroup2008).
Thepromiseofaswatheofnewjobs–andthestrongsuggestionthatthesemayoutnumberjob
losses–shouldserveasasignificantpoliticalandeconomicenticementtogovernmentstomovemore
stridentlytowardslow-carboneconomicdevelopment.However,astheGlobalClimateNetworknotes
initspreviousBreakingThroughonTechnologypaper(GCN2009),theshift–includingthecreation
ofnewjobs,thedevelopmentofnewtechnologiesandtheavoidanceofdangerousclimatechange–
willnothappenbyaccident.Itmustbedrivenbygovernmentpolicy.
Intime,someofthenecessarypolicysignalsmaywellcomefromtheinternationallevel.However,itis
hardtoescapetheimportanceofnationalpolicytoensuredemandforimportanttechnologiesis
createdinthefirstplaceandthatthepoliticsofjobcreationcanbegivenafillipbytheresulting
employmentboom.Withthisinmind,ourconclusionsandrecommendationsareasfollows:
1.Clear,consistentandtargetedgovernmentpolicywillhelpboostjobs
numbers
Asmanyofthenationalpapersthatunderscorethisstudydemonstrate,marketsforlow-carbon
technology–andthereforejobsnumbers–expandasaresultofgovernmentpolicy.Policy
approachestakenincludeeconomy-wideemissionsreductionorefficiencytargets,renewableenergy
targets,feed-intariffsandotherrenewableenergymarketincentives,subsidies–suchasrecent
stimuluspackages,regulationandtaxes.
TheGCN’snationalpapersalsosummarisethepoliciesandproposalsofgovernmentstodeveloplow-
carbontechnologymarkets;theprojectionsandestimatesofjobsnumbersaremadeusingthese
assumptions.Fromthisitwouldbefairtodeducethatanincreasingnumberofpolicymakersnotonly
seethelow-carboneconomyaspossiblebutalsoinevitable.Ifthisisthecase,earlymovers(Germany
mightbearguedtobeoneexampleinthisreport)andthosethatdrivenewtechnologymarketsmost
aggressivelywillreaptheeconomicbenefits,includingjobcreation.
Onefurtherconclusioninthisarea,whichisevidentfromChina,theUSandothernationalpapersand
fromsomeoftheinternationalliterature,isthatmoreaggressiveandambitiousgovernmentpolicies
seemlikelytocreatehighernetnumbersofjobs.Whilethisisatentativeconclusion,italsostandsto
reason;iftheeconomic,fiscalandregulatorysignalsfromgovernmentstronglysupportlow-carbon
technology,thenbusinesseswillbemorelikelytomaketherequiredinvestments.
GCNrecommendation:Developnational,low-carbonindustrialstrategies
Whilegovernmentinterventioninmarketsshouldalwaysbehandledwithcare,itisdifficultto
conceiveofaneconomictransformationonthescalerequiredtoavoiddangerousclimatechangethat
takesplaceinthefreemarketalone.Whilemanygovernmentsarebeginningtoadoptlow-carbon
policyframeworkstoanencouragingdegree,tocapitaliseonemergingmarketsinrenewableenergy
andrelatedtechnologiesandestablishtheirplaceinnewglobalvalueandsupplychainsandcreate
jobstheywillneedacohesive,multi-dimensional,strategy.
Nationallow-carbonindustrialstrategiesarelikelytodiffersignificantlyfromcountrytocountry,
dependingonnationalresources,skillsbasesandexistinginfrastructure.Aswellaslow-carbonpolicy
frameworksandsector-oreconomy-wideincentivestocreatesustaineddemand,strategiesmay
include:finance;supportforresearchanddevelopment;atrainingandskillsstrategy;investmentin
infrastructure;adjustmentpoliciesforworkersandindustriesthatarecarbon-intensive.
TheGCNisnotarguingthatgovernmentsshouldbeactiveintheireconomiestotheextentthatthey
pickwinningtechnologies.However,itisourviewthatgovernmentneedstodefineclearlythe
nationallow-carbonpolicyframework,developavisionforwhereintheglobalmarketanation’slow-
carboncomparativeadvantagewilllie,helpensurenationalinfrastructureandthenation’sskillsbase
isuptothejobandprovidefinance.Marketswillintheenddeterminewhichtechnologiessucceed,
butinthemeantimeitisgovernment’sproperroletoensurelow-carbonwinsoutovercarbon-
intensive.
2.Financeiscriticaltothecreationoflow-carboneconomicopportunities
Thelow-carboneconomy,andthejobopportunitiesitpromises,shouldnotwitherduetoalackof
accesstocapital.Inthecurrenteconomicclimatewithfinancestillconstrained,thisisarealdanger
thatonlygovernmentscanaddress.Publicfundshavearoletoplay,buttheytooarehugely
constrained:financecapitalmarketsarewherethebulkoftheworld’swealthisstilllocatedbut
currentlytheeconomicsignalstodirectthismoneytowardslow-carboninvestmentarenotstrong
enough.
ThefinancingofsomeofthepoliciesandmeasurestheGCNhasidentifiedinthispaperisthesubject
oftheNetwork’snextstudy,dueforpublicationduringCOP15inCopenhagen.
GCNrecommendation:Governmentsmustpullallavailablefinanciallevers
Whilecarbonmarketsmightestablishlong-termpricesignalstosteerinvestmenttowardslow-carbon,
thisisunlikelytobestrongenoughsoonenough.Significant,up-frontcapitalexpenditureisalso
requiredtoensuremanyofthejobopportunitiesidentifiedinthisreportarerealised.Governments
mustthereforedoeverythingintheirpower–fromthewiseuseoflimitedpublicfunds,tothe
creationoflow-carboncapitalmarketregulation,taxincentivesandnewfinancialchannels–toshift
investmentfromhightolowcarbon.
Governmentsmustdevelopwhatsomecontributorstothisstudyhavecalled‘arobustpipelineof
financingfromgovernment,thefinancialmarketsandinternationalinstitutions’toensurethatlow-
carbontechnologiesarenotstarvedofinvestment.
3.Trainingiscriticaltothedevelopmentoflow-carbonsectors
Eachnationalpaperthatsupportsthisstudyconcludesthat–amongotherfactors–equippingnew
workforceswiththerequiredskillsisofhighimportance.Whetherornotaworkforceisreadyto
supplynew,low-carbonindustrieswithlabourwillmakeorbreaklow-carbonindustrialstrategy.In
amongthenumericalprojections,therearealsoimportantargumentstobemadeaboutthe‘quality’
ofthejobscreated.
1.Wemightaddthat
Manyworkersemployedinnew,low-carbontechnologieswillrequireahighlevelofskillandare
thisGCNstudyhas
identifiedasignificant thereforelikelytoattractsalariesabovenationalaverages.Thistooisgoodnews,notjustfor
lackofdataonlow- governmentsseekingtoorientatetheireconomieshigherupthevaluechain,butalsoforthose
carbonemploymentin
general,onpotential
concernedaboutthestructuralflawsintheglobaleconomycaused,inpart,byanoversupplyoflow-
forjobcreationandon wagedlabour.
skillsgapsandthat
governmentswillneed GCNrecommendation:Identifyskillsgapsanddevelopatrainingstrategy
abetterunderstanding
oftheemployment
Afirststeptowardsalow-carbonskillsandtrainingstrategyshouldbetheidentificationbynational
impactsofpolicyif governmentsorappropriateagenciesofthelikelyskillsgapsthatmightdevelopifwiderlow-carbon
theyaretoensurelow industrialstrategiesarepursued.1 Thesegapswillneedtobefilledwitharangeofinnovative,public-
carbonindustrial
strategyattractsstrong academic-privatetrainingandapprenticeshipspartnerships,whicharelikelytorequirefinancialand
domesticsupport. technicalsupportfromgovernments.
4.Adjustmentpoliciesshouldalsoformpartofthestrategy
Thepoliticsandeconomicsofunemploymentarecurrentlyplayingoutasaresultoftherecent
economiccrisisthathasbesetdevelopedcountriesinparticular.Whiletheshifttoalow-carbon
economypromisestocreateanetjobgain,atleastinthetransitionphase,therewillbelosersand
theirlosswillbecostlyatthehousehold,economicandpoliticallevels.
ThenationalstudiesfromChinaandtheUSillustratethispointveryclearly.Planstoreducethe
carbonintensivenessofChina’seconomicgrowthwillleadtoplantclosuresandjoblosses.TheUS
reportspellsthisoutatanindustry-specificlevel.AsAmericadevelopsitsSmartGrid,itwillno
longerrequireworkerstoreaddomesticandindustrialmeters;tensofthousandsoflow-skilledjobs
willbelost,althoughthoselosseswillbemorethanadequatelyoffsetbyjobgains.
GCNrecommendation:Identifylikelyjoblossesandensuretheseareminimised
Retrainingstaffandhelpingfirmstoorientatetheirbusinesstowardsgreaterefficiencywillbeas
essentialinlow-carbonindustrialstrategyasenablingthelow-carboneconomy.Schemesthathave
minimisedtheimpactonworkersoftherecentrecession,suchasGermany’skurzarbeit2,are
importantexamplesofhowaworker-focusedapproachcanhelplimitwidereconomicdamage.Itis
2.Seenational possibletoimaginehowalow-carbonkurzarbeit mightserveboththeaimofreducingjoblossesand
summarysection. ofhelpingtransformexistingbusiness.
5.Moreanalysisisneededofhowglobalisedmarketswillaffectjob
creation.
Inaninterconnectedworld,whereeconomiccrisesspreadfromoneeconomyintoothereconomies,as
recessioninindustrialisedcountriesin2008/9hasillustrated,thisstudysuggeststhatprosperityand
opportunitiestoocouldbecontagious.However,thedebateaboutjobcreationisintenselypolitical.
Whilepolicycanandshouldbeusedtoboostdomesticjobcreation,aligningdomesticpolicywith
globalobjectivessuchaspromotionofsustainabledevelopmentandachievementoftheMillennium
DevelopmentGoals,perhaps,holdsthekeytoacommonfuture.Suchanapproach,however,isnot
apparenttopolicymakers.Onereasonforthisisthethinnessofexistingliteratureconcerningjob
creationthroughglobalsupplychainsinlow-carbonindustriesandthusthecaseforanopen
approachisnotasclearaspoliticiansmayrequire.
GCNrecommendation:Deepenanalysisongloballinkagesinlow-carbonmarkets
Capitalisingontheeconomicopportunitiesinherentinthedeploymentoflow-carbontechnologies
willrequireathoroughunderstandingofwhereandwhentheywillfallandtowhom.Wecannot
pretendthisisapurelyempiricalquestionasitisshotthroughwithimportantpolitics.However,
policymakersmustfindabalancebetweenmaximisingdomesticjobcreationandopeningup
coordinatedopportunitiesinacompetitive,globalmarket.
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