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LCAC_40
LADSMI
LFTSE100
LNON_GCC
LGCC_INE
X
LNASDAQ
LS_P500
t-Stat
P-Val
-1.505379
-0.927464
-1.922104
-3.180013
0.530996
0.780009
0.322273
0.021285
-1.135606
-0.274902
-0.610793
0.703780
0.926155
0.865871
We notice that all p values are greater than 0.01 thus we cant reject unit root all
variables are non stationary
Unit root at first difference:
LCAC_40
LADSMI
LFTSE100
LNON_GCC
LGCC_IND
EX
LNASDAQ
LS_P500
t-Stat
P-Val
-12.92041
-20.41649
-20.68032
-26.13492
3.17E-28
2.11E-46
9.01E-47
4.10E-49
-9.687863
-11.26844
-11.72987
5.02E-18
5.11E-23
1.75E-24
We notice that all p values are lower than 0.01 thus we reject unit root all
variables are stationary
Co-integration UAE and non GCC:
Sample (adjusted): 1/05/2005 5/29/2014
Included observations: 3432 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: LADSMI LNON_GCC
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 4
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None
At most 1
0.003031
0.000334
11.56429
1.147036
15.49471
3.841466
0.1791
0.2842
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None
At most 1
0.003031
0.000334
10.41725
1.147036
14.26460
3.841466
0.1859
0.2842
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1
0.004085
0.000492
15.73745
1.689220
15.49471
3.841466
0.0460
0.1937
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None
At most 1
0.004085
0.000492
14.04823
1.689220
14.26460
3.841466
0.0540
0.1937
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None
At most 1
At most 2
At most 3
At most 4
0.009013
0.004178
0.003541
0.000971
0.000343
62.12827
31.05468
16.68466
4.510593
1.175941
69.81889
47.85613
29.79707
15.49471
3.841466
0.1759
0.6636
0.6632
0.8584
0.2782
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None
At most 1
At most 2
At most 3
At most 4
0.009013
0.004178
0.003541
0.000971
0.000343
31.07359
14.37002
12.17407
3.334652
1.175941
33.87687
27.58434
21.13162
14.26460
3.841466
0.1042
0.7963
0.5306
0.9220
0.2782
Both trace and max eigen values tests have p values of > 10% which shows that
we have no coinmtegrating vectors between UAE and rest of the world. While we
might excpect a relationship between world trends and the UAE market this is
not necessary since the UAE has a vast oil reserve and is usually more resistant
to shocks.
Johansen Cointegration
Trace Test
1 cointegrating vectors
0 cointegrating vectors
0 cointegrating vectors
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LGCC_IND
EX)
211.8865
0.0000
All
211.8865
0.0000
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LADSMI)
11.60865
0.0030
All
11.60865
0.0030
Max-Eigenvalue Test
1 cointegrating vectors
0 cointegrating vectors
0 cointegrating vectors
Conclusion
Week long-run relationship
No long-run relationship
No long-run relationship
We notice that we reject that there is no granger causality for UAE on GCC, and GCC on UAE as indicated by
the low pvalues. This means that there is a two way short run relationship between the two, which is logical since
the GCC countries are interrelated and very similar in their economy
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LNON_GCC
)
14.59198
0.0007
All
14.59198
0.0007
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LADSMI)
4.312336
0.1158
All
4.312336
0.1158
we notice that there is granger causality of the non GCC on the UAE, while the
inverse is not true as indicated by first a low pvalue and high pvalue(>10%).
This can be due to the small size of the UAE compared to the combined non GCC
countreies.
Granger UAE World:
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Date: 07/09/15 Time: 20:47
Sample: 12/31/2004 5/29/2014
Included observations: 3434
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LCAC_40)
D(LFTSE100)
D(LNASDAQ)
D(LS_P500)
2.658802
0.484237
3.118824
11.38365
2
2
2
2
0.2646
0.7850
0.2103
0.0034
All
99.74807
0.0000
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LADSMI)
3.270251
0.1949
D(LFTSE100)
D(LNASDAQ)
D(LS_P500)
0.586287
0.901322
57.18044
2
2
2
0.7459
0.6372
0.0000
All
263.3834
0.0000
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LADSMI)
D(LCAC_40)
D(LNASDAQ)
D(LS_P500)
5.121290
24.76434
1.846166
71.68017
2
2
2
2
0.0773
0.0000
0.3973
0.0000
All
346.5340
0.0000
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LADSMI)
D(LCAC_40)
D(LFTSE100)
D(LS_P500)
11.84352
0.883304
1.569096
23.73466
2
2
2
2
0.0027
0.6430
0.4563
0.0000
All
40.47082
0.0000
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
D(LADSMI)
D(LCAC_40)
D(LFTSE100)
D(LNASDAQ)
11.49010
1.216904
5.618170
8.594859
2
2
2
2
0.0032
0.5442
0.0603
0.0136
All
32.14847
0.0001
we notice that the s&p granger cause all other markets including the gcc, this
makes sense since the s&p is one of the oldest markets and the biggest, it gives
an indication of the overall world economy.
What is interesting also is that the UAE market granger causes the s&p, and
nasdaq, this might be due since a lot of uae investors are also major investors in
the American market due to the size of their wealth.
Finally the nasdaq causes the s&P this makes sense since both markets are us
markets and are therefore interrelated.
.012
.012
.008
.008
.004
.004
.000
.000
1
10
.008
.008
.004
.004
.000
.000
10
.012
10
10
A shock to the to the GCC market affects the UAE market first positively and takes
3.5 days to be fully absorbed.
A shock to the to the UAE market affects the GCC market first positively and takes 4
days to be fully absorbed.
.012
.012
.008
.008
.004
.004
.000
.000
10
10
.016
.016
.012
.012
.008
.008
.004
.004
.000
.000
-.004
-.004
1
10
10
C:
A shock to the to the non-GCC market affects the UAE market first positively but
negligibly and takes 3 days to be fully absorbed.
A shock to the UAE market affects the non-GCC market first positively but and takes
3 days to be fully absorbed.
Impulse Response Function UAE S&P 500 nasdaq:(since theyre the only ones
we are interested in and have shown significant short run relationships)
.010
.012
.012
.008
.008
.006
.008
.004
.004
.004
.002
.000
.000
.000
-.002
1
10
10
10
.008
.008
.010
.006
.006
.008
.004
.004
.002
.002
.000
.000
-.002
-.002
.006
.004
.002
10
.000
-.002
1
10
10
A shock to the UAE market affects the nasdaq first positively then negatively but is
negligible and takes 4 days to be fully absorbed.
A shock to the UAE market also affects the S&P first positively then negatively but is
negligible and takes 4 days to be fully absorbed.
A shock to the nasdaq affects the UAE market positively but is negligible and takes 3
days to be fully absorbed.
A shock to the S&P affects the UAE market first positively then negatively but is
negligible and takes 4 days to be fully absorbed.
Variance
Decomposition
of D(LADSMI):
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
S.E.
0.010373
0.010846
0.010855
0.010857
0.010857
0.010857
0.010857
0.010857
0.010857
D(LADSMI)
D(LGCC_INDEX
)
100.0000
93.51230
93.36048
93.33768
93.33741
93.33728
93.33728
93.33727
93.33727
0.000000
6.487701
6.639523
6.662320
6.662586
6.662725
6.662724
6.662725
6.662725
10
0.010857
93.33727
6.662725
Variance
Decomposition
of
D(LGCC_INDEX
):
Period
S.E.
D(LADSMI)
D(LGCC_INDEX
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.010982
0.011069
0.011081
0.011081
0.011081
0.011081
0.011081
0.011081
0.011081
0.011081
7.842677
8.260851
8.375646
8.377846
8.378045
8.378048
8.378049
8.378049
8.378049
8.378049
92.15732
91.73915
91.62435
91.62215
91.62195
91.62195
91.62195
91.62195
91.62195
91.62195
S.E.
D(LADSMI)
D(LNON_GCC)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.010666
0.010794
0.010794
0.010794
0.010794
0.010794
0.010794
0.010794
0.010794
0.010794
100.0000
99.58845
99.58788
99.58601
99.58596
99.58596
99.58596
99.58596
99.58596
99.58596
0.000000
0.411548
0.412116
0.413995
0.414036
0.414037
0.414037
0.414037
0.414037
0.414037
Variance
decomposition
of
D(LNON_GCC)
Period
S.E.
D(LADSMI)
D(LNON_GCC)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.013071
0.013182
0.013189
0.013190
0.013190
0.013190
0.013190
0.013190
0.013190
0.013190
6.715391
6.656578
6.728781
6.734735
6.734740
6.734758
6.734758
6.734758
6.734758
6.734758
93.28461
93.34342
93.27122
93.26526
93.26526
93.26524
93.26524
93.26524
93.26524
93.26524
Changes in the UAE market is explained almost completely by internal changes and
less than 0.4% by changes in the non GCC markets.
Changes in the non GCC market is explained almost completely by internal changes
and less than 7% by changes in the UAE market.
Variance Decomposition UAE S&P 500 nasdaq: (since theyre the only ones we
are interested in and have shown significant short run relationships)
Variance
Decomposition of
D(LADSMI):
Period
S.E. D(LADSMI) D(LCAC_40) D(LFTSE100) D(LNASDAQ) D(LS_P500)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0
105
45
0.0
107
88
0.0
108
03
0.0
108
04
0.0
108
04
0.0
108
04
0.0
108
04
0.0
108
04
0.0
108
04
0.0
108
04
100.0000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
97.45760
1.604153
0.049184
0.726396
0.162669
97.18867
1.742309
0.053986
0.732335
0.282703
97.17809
1.743509
0.055101
0.736461
0.286839
97.17707
1.743751
0.055563
0.736665
0.286948
97.17699
1.743792
0.055567
0.736679
0.286977
97.17699
1.743792
0.055567
0.736679
0.286977
97.17699
1.743792
0.055567
0.736679
0.286977
97.17699
1.743792
0.055567
0.736679
0.286977
97.17699
1.743792
0.055567
0.736679
0.286977
Variance
Decomposition of
D(LNASDAQ):
Period
S.E. D(LADSMI) D(LCAC_40) D(LFTSE100) D(LNASDAQ) D(LS_P500)
1
2
3
4
0.0
118
34
0.0
122
61
0.0
122
80
0.0
122
0.243136
36.88450
0.710023
62.16235
0.000000
0.418751
36.28277
0.696085
61.95031
0.652084
0.568453
0.568457
36.19223
36.19295
0.694593
0.696111
61.79758
61.79480
0.747140
0.747687
5
6
7
8
9
10
82
0.0
122
82
0.0
122
82
0.0
122
82
0.0
122
82
0.0
122
82
0.0
122
82
0.568525
36.19275
0.696225
61.79477
0.747736
0.568527
36.19275
0.696225
61.79477
0.747736
0.568529
36.19274
0.696225
61.79477
0.747736
0.568529
36.19274
0.696225
61.79477
0.747736
0.568529
36.19274
0.696225
61.79477
0.747736
0.568529
36.19274
0.696225
61.79477
0.747736
Variance
Decomposition of
D(LS_P500):
Period
S.E. D(LADSMI) D(LCAC_40) D(LFTSE100) D(LNASDAQ) D(LS_P500)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0
098
26
0.0
102
89
0.0
103
12
0.0
103
14
0.0
103
14
0.0
103
14
0.0
103
14
0.0
103
14
0.0
103
14
0.0
103
14
0.542110
44.09764
1.319750
41.81966
12.22084
0.730752
43.40624
1.324782
41.74238
12.79584
0.864207
43.26634
1.348022
41.60808
12.91335
0.864242
43.26619
1.350266
41.60490
12.91439
0.864341
43.26600
1.350368
41.60483
12.91446
0.864349
43.26600
1.350369
41.60482
12.91446
0.864350
43.26600
1.350370
41.60482
12.91446
0.864350
43.26600
1.350370
41.60482
12.91446
0.864350
43.26600
1.350370
41.60482
12.91446
0.864350
43.26600
1.350370
41.60482
12.91446