From the Editor’s Desk

Welcome to our first edition of 2010. The Year of the Tiger.

Asian Tigers
Editor in Chief
The Tiger is one of the 12-year cycle of animals that appear in the Chinese zodiac related to the Chinese Charles Greene
Calendar. Another name for the Chinese calendar is the “Yin Calendar”. Since the time of Emperor Wu of Han, Managing Editor
starting the new year on the second new moon after the winter solstice has been the norm for more than Mark Wayne
two thousand years.
Contributors
Asian Tigers magazine is true to the Tiger tradition of being bold and ambitious. We bring you regular Chris Champion
David Bowden
monthly articles that are expertly written, sometimes bold in their nature, and innovative in their approach
Steven Lunt
to our readers throughout Asia. Jack Dixon
This month in our cover story, ‘Noynoy, The Third Benigno Aquino’, writer Marisse Reyes asks; what’s in a Dr. Bernardo Villegas
Emilio Antonio Jr.
name? In the case of Senator Benigno Simeon Aquino III, more popularly known as Noynoy, his surname
Ricardo Barcelona
does not only hint at his pedigree or bloodline, but also the story of both a family and a nation. Will he be Wang Yuanchang
the Philippines next President? Many think so. Michelle Foong
Chethan Kambi
Our regular columnist Jack Dixon asks the question ‘Can China ride out the Tiger’s tempest? Is China poised Marisse Reyes
for even greater economics this year? Ivan Fernandez
Read on to find out, and as always, please let us know your views.
Circulation Manager
Also, check out our new 2010 look website at asiantir.org Bonnie Tsang
Happy reading and investing Production Manager
Ferdie Ng
Charlie Greene Design & Layout
Rommel Domondon
Design Assistants
Gian Carlo Bernal, Chris Wood, Ma. Christina Roxas,
編輯寄語 Arnel Mojica
Marketing & Advertising
歡迎閱讀2010年第一期亞洲虎雜誌，今年是我們的「本命年」。 Janina Garcia
garcia@asiantir.com
虎是中國農曆十二生肖之一。農曆，又稱陰曆，從漢武帝時起，就把冬至之後第二個朔日作為新年伊 Editorial & Comments
始，一直沿襲了兩千多年。 Eric Wong
editorial@asiantir.com
亞洲虎雜誌秉承勇敢進取的猛虎精神，每月為亞洲讀者呈獻精彩文章，有的言辭犀利、一針見血，有的
精闢獨到，發人深省。 Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co.
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本期的封面故事是「諾諾：班尼格諾·阿基諾的第三代傳人」，作者 Marisse Reyes 提出這樣的問題： 8 Connaught Place
一個人的名字究竟有何深意？諾諾的本名是班尼格諾·西蒙·阿基諾三世，阿基諾這個姓氏，不僅是宗 Central Hong Kong
族血脈的體現，更代表著一個家族乃至一個國家的傳奇故事。將來的菲律賓總統非他莫屬？想必許多人
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FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTORS REPORT

 Contents
Asia
To lead Global Growth 45

41 South Korea Polishes 56 Some harsh

lessons for
up its Investor Image
Australia

29 Malaysia Begins a 50 The Greatest Show on

New Decade Earth

Features On the Cover:

7 Noynoy, The Third Benigno 32 AFTA after 18 years:

Aquino Assessing the Pace,
美元：中國的兩難選擇 Directions, Gains and Losses
作者/by Marisse Reyes 東盟自由貿易區18年歷程：
評估進展步伐、指引及得失
13 Year of Dealing Dangerously 作者/by Emilio Antonio Jr.
… Can China ride out the
Tiger’s tempest? 36 Hometown of the Tiger 59 Asian Private Capital
充滿考驗的一年 老虎故乡 虎虎生气作者 Incentives and bureaucratic
...中國能否虎口脫險？ 作者/by Wang Yuanchang
作者/by Jack Dixon
burdens conundrum!
38 Wind power in Australia: 亞洲私人資本－激勵措施與官
18 Security is Hong Kong’s Gathering momentum 僚體制負擔迷局！
Priority: Opportunities in 澳洲蓬勃發展的風力發電事業 作者/by Ricardo Barcelona

Security and Smart Cards 作者/by Ivan Fernandez

Markets
安全第一：香港安防產品和 41 Some harsh lessons for
Australia
Departments
智能卡市場的商機
作者/by by Michelle Foong 澳洲的慘痛教訓 4 The Numbers Game
數字的遊戲
23 India’s Commercial MRO 48 The Greatest Show on Earth 作者/by Chris Champion
Market – Ready to Take-Off – Shanghai in the Spotlight
印度商業 MRO 市場－起飛 ASEAN Exchange 65 Technical Overview
在即 風從海上來–上海世博倒計時 of Markets
作者/by Chethan Kambi
55 Asia to Lead Global Growth 67 ATIR Market Report
29 Malaysia Begins a New 亞洲引領全球
Decade 作者/by Bernardo Villegas

亞洲引領全球
作者/by David Bowden

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

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4 Opinion

The 數字的遊戲
Numbers
Game
專欄作者/by Chris Champion

Neither a borrower ... defaults were more than double the from five years ago and, for the first time,
莫借債... average levels of the previous decade. exceeding the country’s GDP. “It’s a
The US Federal Reserve surprised 2009年全年，美國信用卡拖欠款項（指 terrible, terrible sign”, said University of
a few people in mid-January with a new 逾期還款超過60天的信用卡債務）繼續上 New South Wales economics professor
set of rules on credit cards which were 升，最終於9月份達至歷史新高。截至9月 Steve Keen.
firmly skewed in favour of the consumer. 份，拖欠款項較過去十年的平均水平翻了 澳洲的按揭,信用卡及個人貸款債務於
The Fed’s 1,155 pages of rules were 一倍多。 2009年12月達至1.2萬億澳元，較五年前增
welcomed by consumer groups which In Britain, about one million families 長71%，超出該國的GDP。新南威爾士大學
have long been pointing at the modern used credit cards to make mortgage or 經濟學教授Steve Keen稱「這是一個非常,
phenomenon of mountainous personal rent payments in 2009. 非常糟糕的訊號」。
debt. 在英國，約一百萬家庭於2009年使用信 “While 2008 brought us the worldwide
用卡支付按揭款或租金。 credit crisis, 2009... turned into a credit
1月中旬，美國聯儲局頒佈一套有關信 Australian mortgage, credit card and card crisis, as cardholders around the
用卡的新規則，新規則堅定地維護消費者 personal loan debts stood at A$1.2 globe careened from credit binge to credit
的利益，令一些人深感意外。聯儲局的這 trillion in December 2009, up 71 percent bust.” (US commentator Eva Norlyk
套規則長達1,155頁，受到消費者群體的歡
迎，而這個群體一直十分關注現代社會中
個人債務沉重的現象。
We thought it would be interesting
to collect a few facts and quotes on the
subject.
我們相信，收集一些與之相關的事實和
引言，一定非常有趣。
More than 175 million new credit cards
were approved in China in the first 11
months of 2009, up 33 per cent year-on-
year.
2009年前11個月，中國批准發出逾1.75
億張新信用卡，按年增長33%。
US credit card defaults (defined as
credit card debt more than 60 days
behind on payments) rose steadily
throughout 2009, finally reaching record
levels in September. At that point,

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Opinion 5

Smith, creditcardguide.com)
「2008年帶來全球信貸危機，2009
年…轉變為信用卡危機，世界各地的
信用卡持有人從信貸狂歡期進入信貸
崩潰期。」（美國評論員Eva Norlyk
Smith，creditcardguide.com）
“When you get a credit card,
technically you’re borrowing money
from a bank. In reality, though, you’re
borrowing money from yourself.” (Web
site creditcardoffers.com)
「從技術上說，你得到一張信用卡時，
表示你正向銀行借錢。但實際上，你正向
自己借錢。」（網站creditcardoffers.
com）
“He looks the whole world in the
face for he owes not any man.” (Henry
Wadsworth Longfellow)
「他坦坦蕩蕩面對全世界，因為
他無拖無欠。」（Henry Wadsworth
Longfellow）
“The only man who sticks closer to you
in adversity than a friend is a creditor.”
(Anonymous)
「遭遇不幸時，仍緊緊跟隨你的不是朋
友，而是債權人。」（無名氏） We are still waiting for a response from Beijing to the threat
“Who goeth a-borrowing, goeth
a-sorrowing.” (Thomas Tusser)
by Google to walk out of China, a threat which comes as a
「借債是不幸的開始。」（Thomas consequence of the hacking of its Gmail infrastructure.
Tusser）
“Before borrowing money from a
friend, decide which you need most.”
(American proverb) 客攻擊的賬戶均為人權活動分子，且駭客 界主義的中國公民，均會熱切期盼中國政
「向朋友借錢之前，先確定你最需要錢 攻擊均來自中國境內。 府作出回應。
還是朋友。」（美國諺語） Beijing may not be in a hurry to
respond, but one feels that it will have to Wrong again
Google versus Goliath acknowledge the situation at some point, 一錯再錯
Google挑戰中國 and sooner rather than later. This is not a
challenge it can ignore. Google is clearly Rarely have so many been so wrong
We are still waiting for a response from playing hardball on this one, and since its for so long. Australia has just announced
Beijing to the threat by Google to walk furious accusation it has received support another fall in its unemployment rate —
out of China, a threat which comes as a from all points political in the US. There by 10 basis points to 5.5 per cent. The
consequence of the hacking of its Gmail is too much face involved here for China figure, for November, reflects the creation
infrastructure. to remain silent.
由於Gmail基礎架構受到駭客攻 北京可能不會輕易作出回應，但有人認
擊，Google揚言要撤出中國，我們仍在等 為未來某時間其將不得不承認這一情況，
待北京方面的回應。 且宜早不宜遲。這次挑戰不容北京方面忽
Google did not name the Chinese 視。顯而易見，Google這次態度強硬，且
government — well, not exactly. It said 由於其激烈的評論，Google已獲得美國政
the infiltration of its infrastructure was 治當局的支援。此事牽涉甚廣，中國政府
“highly sophisticated”, that the hacked 難以繼續保持緘默。
accounts were those of human rights A response will be eagerly awaited by
activists, and that the hacking came from Google, by the White House, and by
within China. about a billion growingly affluent and
雖然Google並無確切指明中國政府，但 cosmopolitan Chinese citizens.
Google稱其基礎架構「高度完善」，受駭 Google,白宮及約十億逐漸富裕並崇尚世

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

6 Opinion

of 27,900 part-time jobs and 7,300 full- The Federal government warned that 8.5 right. Not even close. The good news
time jobs. per cent was possible. The economists is that the error was on the side of the
錯誤如此之多，如此之久，甚屬罕見。 and analysts said these were reasonable angels. Australia’s unemployment peaked
澳洲前不久宣佈其失業率再次下降，下降 predictions — not good but better than at 5.8 per cent in mid-2009. After the
10個基點至5.5%。11月份的數據顯示該國 most first-world economies. latest figures, even the government is
新增27,900個兼職職位及7,300個全職職 金融危機爆發後數月，學者們還一致認 admitting 8 per cent looks unlikely.
位。 為澳洲的失業率有望達至8%。聯邦政府甚 壞消息是沒人正確判斷到此時此景，甚
Month after month since the start of 至警告說可能攀升到8.5%。經濟學家及分 至連接近的預測都沒有。好消息是物極必
the financial crisis pundits have been 析師稱這些是合理的預測 — 並不太好但 反，「錯」極必「正」。澳洲的失業率於
pretty much agreed that Australia was 優於大多數第一世界經濟體。 2009年中達至5.8%的新高，此後，澳洲政
looking at 8 per cent unemployment. The bad news is that nobody got this 府亦承認不可能達至8%。 |AT|

They said... 名人名言

“Family, religion, friends... these are the three demons
you must slay if you wish to succeed in business.”
—Monty Burns (fictional owner of the nuclear power plant in The Simpsons)

「家庭,宗教信仰,朋友…想要事業成功，這是你必須殺掉
的三個惡魔。」
—蒙哥馬利˙伯恩斯（《阿森一族》中虛構的核電廠東主）

A MOMENT
IN HISTORY
Many banking regulations have been a cow. Herbert had to lead the cow into a 購買餐巾紙,一隻白蘭地酒瓶及一個雞
tightened and changed in the past year bank to be cashed. 蛋。1970年Herbert本人反受其「害」，
as a result of the global economic crisis, 就此而言，最廣為人知的趣事，或許 他收到《Punch》雜誌對一頭奶牛開出的
but one rule which has escaped scrutiny 當屬小說家兼幽默作家AP Herbert的 一張五英鎊支票。Herbert不得不牽著奶
in Britain is the one which states that all 故事。AP Herbert曾在不同時間開支票 牛到銀行兌換現金。
banks are required to accept any legible
cheque, irrespective of the document’s
material content. The reason may be the
legacy of humorous innovations the rule
has spawned.
由於全球經濟危機的爆發，過去一年許
多銀行法規紛紛收縮並更改，但在英國有
一條規則不在此列，這條規則規定所有銀
行均需接受任何清晰支票，而不論該票據
所附金額巨大與否。這條規則免於更改的
原因，可能是其過去引發的創新之舉令人
啼笑皆非。
Perhaps the most renowned antics on the
theme came from the novelist and humorist
AP Herbert, who wrote cheques at various
times on napkins, a brandy bottle and an
egg. Herbert himself then became a target
in 1970 when he received a five-pound
cheque from Punch magazine written on

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010


作者/By Marisse Reyes
What is in a name? In the case
of Senator Benigno Simeon Aquino
III, more popularly known as Noynoy,
his surname does not only hint at his
pedigree or bloodline, but also the story
of both a family and a nation.
一個人的名字究竟有何深意？對班尼格
諾·西蒙·阿基諾三世（ Benigno Simeon
Aquino III）而言（常被稱為諾諾·阿基諾
（Noynoy Aquino），家族姓氏不僅是宗族血
脈的體現，還代表一個家族及國家的傳奇
故事。
“The only valuable asset I can bequeath
to you now is the name you carry”, wrote
Ninoy to Noynoy, then 13 on August
Economy
25, 1973, the night before he faced a
military kangaroo court for alleged anti-
subversion during martial law. “I have
tried my best during my years of public
service to keep that name untarnished
and respected, unmarked by sorry
compromises for expediency. I now pass
it on to you, as good, I pray, as when my
father, your grandfather passed it on to
me.”
尼諾伊·阿基諾（Ninoy Aquino）在軍
政時期曾被控顛覆國家罪，面臨非法軍事
法庭審判的前夜，即1973年8月25日，他
在留給年僅13歲的諾諾·阿基諾的家書中
寫道：
"家族的名字是我能留給你的唯一財
富。從政期間，我竭盡全力保持家族名字
7
不受玷污且值得尊敬，從不為了權宜形勢
而有絲毫妥協。現時，我將家族的英名留
傳給你，希望你繼續發揚光大，正如你的祖
父將其留傳給我。"
“Your great-grandfather, General
Servillano Aquino was twice condemned
to death by both the Spaniards and the
American colonizers. Fortunately, he
survived both by a twist of fate. Your
grandfather, my father was also imprisoned
by the Americans because he loved his
people more than the Americans who
colonized us. He was finally vindicated.
Our ancestors have shared the pains,
the sorrows and the anguish of Mother
Filipinas when she was in bondage.”
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
8 Economy

When Ninoy was assassinated on August 21,

1983, a Prince Charming had awakened a nation, which
had slept in lethargy for 11 years with the kiss of his
ultimate sacrifice.
"你的曾祖父薩維拉諾·阿基諾 of her husband and proud of his public years before Philippine Independence.
（Servillano Aquino）將軍曾兩次被西 accomplishments, had always remained in Five months before he was born, the
班牙及美國殖民者判處死刑。所幸在命運 the background. Kataastaasang, Kagalang-galangang
的眷顧之下，他兩次都得以逃生。你的祖 如果說阿基諾家族是達拉（Tarlac） 第 Katipunan ng mga Anak ng Bayan,
父亦被美國人投入監牢，因為較之美國殖 二區的政治中堅，許寰哥（Cojuangco） or Katipunan, had established its first
民者，他更深愛菲律賓人民。最終，他成 家族則是第一區的政治領袖。兩個家族均 issue of the revolutionary Kalayaan.
功洗脫罪名。在祖國菲律賓飽受奴役的時 屬同一政黨，私交甚篤，常共同亮相公共 On August 23, 1896, nearly two
代，我們的先人與祖國母親共同分擔痛 場合。尼諾伊·阿基諾與柯莉·許寰哥 months after her father’s birth, Andres
苦、悲哀及磨難。" （Cory Cojuangco）的婚姻被當地人視為 Bonifacio and his men pledged at
“Forgive me for passing unto your 天作之合。柯莉表示："結婚一年後，我 Pugadlawin that they would fight for
young shoulders the great responsibilities 們達成一致，尼諾伊全身心從政，由我料 freedom and complete separation from
for our family. I trust you will love your 理家務。他不鼓勵我外出工作，我欣然接 the Spanish crown. Four months later,
mother and your sisters and lavish them 受，因為組建家庭後，妻子全身心料理家 on December 30, 1896, Jose Rizal, a
with the care and protection I would have 務理所應當。"柯莉是丈夫事業堅定支持 Chinese mestizo, was executed by the
given them.” 者，為丈夫的政績深感自豪，始終在幕後默 Spaniards for creating in his novels a
"請原諒我將如此家族重任賦予你年幼的 默奉獻。 portrait of the Filipinos as a country
肩膀。我堅信你定會深愛母親及姐妹，像 free to think and act on its own. Could
我一樣給她們無微不至的關懷及保護。" Fever for Freedom and Independence her father have possibly absorbed
When Ninoy was assassinated on 追求自由及獨立 through osmosis, the fever for freedom
August 21, 1983, a Prince Charming had But the world would soon take and independence running through the
awakened a nation, which had slept in notice of Cory, frail of shoulder, but veins of her forefathers?
lethargy for 11 years, with the kiss of his strong of spirit and of courage. Her 但柯莉很快引起關注，儘管她外表弱不
ultimate sacrifice. He said he regretted father Jose Cojuangco, Sr. was born in 禁風，卻擁有堅強的內心及過人的勇氣。
having only one life to give, because even Malolos, Bulacan on July 3, 1896, two 其父瓊斯·許寰哥（Jose Cojuangco,
if he had a hundred lives, he would have
given them all to his country.
1983年8月21日，尼諾伊·阿基諾遭到暗
殺，這位捨生取義的政治領袖用自己的鮮
血喚醒了沉睡11年的菲律賓民眾。他曾深
情表示，後悔自己只有一次生命，即使有
一百次生命，他亦會全部獻給祖國。
If the Aquinos were political kingpins
of the second district of Tarlac, the
Cojuangcos were of the first district. They
belonged to the same political party, were
good friends and got together socially.
The marriage of Ninoy Aquino and
Cory Cojuangco was a match made in
heaven, as they say. “Just a year after we
got married, we both agreed that since
Ninoy would be in public life, I would
be primarily a mother”, she said. “He
discouraged me from having a career, and
I did not fight him, since staying at home
was commonly accepted once you had a
family.” Cory, who was always supportive

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010


Sr.） 於1896年7月3日出生在比立勤
（Bulacan） 的 馬洛洛斯（Malolos）
，兩年後菲律賓實現獨立。他出生前5
個月，Kataastaasang，即 Kagalang-
galangang Katipunan ng mga Anak
ng Bayan（又被稱為卡迪普南革命組
織（Katipunan）創辦第一期革命刊物
《Kalayaan》。1896年8月23日，即柯莉的
父親出生近兩個月後，安達斯·波尼斯奧
（Andres Bonifacio）及其擁護者在普伽
拉文（Pugadlawin） 宣誓，將為自由而
戰，實現徹底擺脫西班牙殖民統治。四個
月後，即1896年12月30日，一位華裔混血
的菲律賓作家被西班牙殖民者處決，因為
其小說將菲律賓描寫為一個能自由思考且
獨立自主的國家。或許，柯莉的父親受到
Born on February 8,
1960, Noynoy is a fourth
generation member of the
Cojuangcos, who have
been running for public
office a century back.
這種思潮的影響，追求自由及獨立的精神
在家族中血脈傳承。
His own grandfather, Ingkong Jose
from Hongjian village in Fujian, People’s
Republic of China, was going through
his own personal struggle as a naturalized
Filipino. His son Melecio, the Cojuangcos’
first politician, a teacher by profession, won
by a majority vote under the Progresista
Party campaigning on a platform
“ultimate” or “eventual” independence
from the Americans.
柯莉的曾祖父英宏·瓊斯（Ingkong
Jose）來自中國福建的宏漸村，一直為
菲律賓的獨立自主抗爭。其子馬里西
（Melecio）原本以教師為業，在進步黨
（Progresista Party）的選舉中贏得多數選
票，成為許寰哥家族首個政治家，致力於
擺脫美國殖民者，實現菲律賓徹底獨立。
Born on February 8, 1960, Noynoy
is a fourth generation member of the
Cojuangcos, who have been running
for public office a century back. He is
an economist by training and a public
official by profession. He served three
terms as Congressman of the Second
District of Tarlac before placing sixth
in the May 2007 senatorial elections
that earned him a six-year mandate
as Senator. Congressman Peping
Economy 9
Cojuangco’s father, Jose Cojuangco,
Sr. was a congressional representative.
Peping’s mother Demetria Sumulong
who hailed from Antipolo is the second
daughter of Senator Juan Sumulong, the
sister of Senator Lorenzo Sumulong and
Congressman Francisco Sumulong.
諾諾·阿基諾出生於1960年2月8日，是
許寰哥家族第四代成員，該家族自上世紀
以來一直參與菲律賓政治。他透過學習成
為經濟學家，以政治為業。他曾擔任三
屆 達拉第二區國會議員，後於2007年5月
第六次參與參議員選舉，得到任期六年的
參議員任命。國會議員皮蓬·許寰哥（
Peping Cojuangco）的父親瓊斯·許寰哥
曾擔任國會代表。皮蓬的母親迪米特婭·
蘇穆隆（Demetria Sumulong）來自安蒂波
洛（Antipolo），是參議員胡安·蘇穆隆
（ Juan Sumulong）的次女，是參議員洛
倫佐·蘇穆隆（Lorenzo Sumulong）及國
會議員的弗蘭西斯科·蘇穆隆（Francisco
Sumulong）的妹妹。
As for Cory, how can we say in a
paragraph, a book, or several books what
Cory Aquino has contributed in the name
of freedom and democracy? If Ninoy had
died for his country, Cory devoted her life
in serving the nation. To quote Cory1, “we
Filipinos were privileged to experience
a peaceful revolution. We got rid of the
dictator, spared of the terrible trauma
and bitterness of civil war and bloodshed
that other less fortunate countries have
gone through. Surely, such a precious gift
calls for reciprocation. What is it that the
privilege of EDSA expects of us?”
對柯莉·阿基諾而言，她對菲律賓自由
及民主的貢獻即使用鴻篇巨著亦難以盡
言。如果說尼諾伊為祖國獻出生命，柯
莉則是盡畢生精力服務祖國。 柯莉曾表
示：1："菲律賓人實現和平革命著實得到上
天的眷顧。我們推翻獨裁者，避免其他國
1 Corazon Aquino. Buklod
Atenista Congress in Ateneo de
Manila University Congress. Ate-
neo de Manila University. January
19, 1996.
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
10 Economy

家曾經歷的社會動盪及流血戰爭。我們一
定要報答上天如此珍貴的饋贈。在享受人
民力量革命的成果時，我們該付出哪些努
力？"
Cory said she was committed “to
pursue the mission I assumed after I left
the presidency in 1992… Nothing more
than that our work is meaningful, that
it nourishes not only the body but also
the soul. That we render service that is
truly fulfilling, which were necessary,
goes beyond the call of official duty, the
boundaries of our homes and workplace,
the limits of ability to give. That we grow
not just materially but spiritually, that we
value not only ourselves and our families
but the community and the country as
well.
柯莉曾表示，1992年卸任總統後，將繼續
致力於完成肩頭的使命…"沒有什麼比我們
的工作更具意義，我們不僅能改善物質生
活，還能使人民的靈魂得到昇華。我們要一
心一意的為公眾服務，應超越職責要求、家
庭與工作的界限以及我們的能力局限。我們
不僅要在物質方面實現增長，還要在精神方 their grateful and emotional sentiments willing to give up six years of your life?”
面實現昇華，我們不僅珍視自身及家庭，還 for a leader who gave her selfless love for 2009年8月1日，柯莉與世長辭，數百萬
應珍視整個社區及國家。" country and people. Was it merely her 菲律賓民眾深切悼念這位無私深愛祖國及
The Spirit of EDSA means nothing popularity, which catapulted the public 人民的偉大領袖。或許在她的個人魅力影
more than being men and women for clamor for Noynoy to run either as vice- 響下，諾諾·阿基諾得到民眾擁護，先擔
others. This is the spirit that I wish all president, then as president? If Cory had 任副總統，後又擔任總統。如果柯莉還在
Filipinos could imbibe. It is the spirit, been there, she would have given her 世，她定會給出自己的真知灼見。據平
which promotes personal excellence and discernment. Pinky Aquino-Abellada 基·阿基諾－阿布萊達（Pinky Aquino-
service to others. It is what will sustain suggested Noynoy consult a Carmelite nun Abellada）透露，諾諾·阿基諾曾向三寶顏
our hard-earned freedoms, and make the in Zamboanga. If Ninoy had Fr. Horacio
Filipino people truly deserve the generous de la Costa, and Cory Fr. Catalino
blessing of peaceful change that was Arevalo, Noynoy should have his spiritual
showered on us in EDSA.” adviser as well. Ballsy Aquino Cruz, the
"人民力量革命的精神就是要求我們為 oldest daughter, was overheard to have
他人服務。我希望所有菲律賓人都能繼承 asked Noynoy over the phone, “Are you
這種精神。在該精神指引下，我們會在工
作中精益求精，努力為他人服務。只有這
樣，我們才能捍衛來之不易的自由，使所
有菲律賓人真正享有人民力量革命帶來的 When Cory passed
和平變革成果。"
on to the next life on
Beyond the Call of Official Duty
逾越工作職責要求
August 1, 2009, （Zamboanga）的卡莫利特（Carmelite）修
女問道。如果說尼諾伊得到胡拉西奧·考斯
When Cory passed on to the next life millions displayed their 塔（Fr. Horacio de la Costa）及柯莉·
on August 1, 2009, millions displayed 卡塔里奧·阿里瓦羅（Cory Fr. Catalino
grateful and emotional Arevalo） 的指引，諾諾·阿基諾亦應有
1 Corazon Aquino. Buklod Atenista Congress in Ateneo sentiments for a leader 自己的心靈顧問。有人曾聽到長女波斯·阿
基諾·克魯茲（Ballsy Aquino Cruz）在電
de Manila University Congress. Ateneo de Manila
University. January 19, 1996.
1 柯
who gave her selfless love 話中問諾諾·阿基諾："你是否願意放棄六
 拉蓉·阿基諾（Corazon Aquino）。雅典耀大學 年的生命？"
（Ateneo de Manila University）大會期間的博克洛
德·阿特尼斯塔（Buklod Atenista）會議。雅典耀大
for country and people. It was a modest question, coming
學。1996年1月19日。 from someone who had served as her

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 11

mother’s private secretary during her

presidency. In her humility she had
forgotten to acknowledge that their lives
had already been intertwined with that
of our nation... suffering through their
father’s imprisonment and assassination,
their mother’s reluctant presidency
and selfless dedication in service to the
nation.
這是個謙遜的問題，波斯·阿基諾·克
魯茲曾在其母任總統時擔任私人秘書。這
位謙遜的女兒或許忘記，無論父輩的入獄
及被暗殺，母親勉為其難出任總統，還是
無私致力於服務國家，都使得一家人的生
命與國家融為一體，密不可分。
On September 9, 2009, the 40th day
after the death of his mother Corazon
Aquino, Noynoy Aquino announced
his presidential bid. A text message that
day suggested that if you multiplied the
9-9-9 by 3, you would get 27. His father
Ninoy Aquino was born on November
27. Noynoy would run in 2010, 27 years In 1996, ten years after the historic EDSA. Our national situation demands
after Ninoy’s assassination. Also, 9-9-9 EDSA Revolution, Cory Aquino may nothing less than a return to, the revival
was also the 252nd day of the year. If you have been prophetic in her warning that: of the Spirit that brought us all to the
add the three digits, it also yielded a 9. Is 1996年，具有歷史意義的人民力量革命 defense of the Republic, our people and
it his destiny? 十年後，柯莉·阿基諾警示公眾時富有預 the democratic way of life in the dark
2009年9月9日，在母親柯拉蓉·阿基諾 見性地指出： days of martial law, and into the dawning
（Corazon Aquino）辭世後第40天，諾 “Challenges to our freedoms continue of a new day at EDSA. I do not speak
諾·阿基諾宣佈參與總統競選。當天有人 to lurk in dark corners, some of them only of providing our warm bodies when
撰文指出，如果3個9相乘，結果為27。諾 disguised as anti-crime legislation or needed to make a national statement, but
諾·阿基諾的父親尼諾伊·阿基諾出生於 as proposed constitutional reforms to a generosity of spirit, a sharing of our
11月27日。諾諾·阿基諾將於2010年掌 streamline government. They also come time, efforts, resources, and our very lives
權，恰好是尼諾伊·阿基諾遭遇暗殺27年 in the shape of recycled but unrepentant if needed, to see to it that others might
後。另外，2009年9月9日恰好是當年的第 politicians, and discredited ideologues that improve their lives. I speak of living the
252天。如果將三個數字相加，結果亦是9 would take advantage of the democratic Spirit of EDSA in all of our endeavors,
。這是否是他的宿命？ space, which the EDSA Revolution had whatever is our state and calling in life.”
created in our society. But mostly, these "這種冷漠會導致政府高層無視民眾意
challenges take the form of a general 見，我堅信冷漠的態度有違人民力量革命
apathy among our people, a tendency 的精神。鑒於國家的現狀，我們必須立即
For the economy, to leave everything in the hands of the 重振革命精神，號召所有人保衛共和國，
leaders, and just heap the blame on them if 使我們的人民及民主生活方式免受軍政府
he sees farms and rural something goes wrong.” 的威脅，迎來人民力量革命全新未來的曙
"…在陰暗的角落，還存在對自由的威 光。我不僅注重為民眾帶來安逸的物質生
enterprise as vital to 脅，有些偽裝成反犯罪立法，有些則披上 活，還注重提升民眾的精神，分享我們的
achieving food security. 優化政府的憲法改革外衣。還有些人是冥
頑不化的政客及虛偽的空想家，只不過想
時間、付出、資源及生活，幫助他人改善
生活。我號召所有人秉承人民力量革命的
His is a leadership 利用人民力量革命的民主成果謀取私利。 精神，無論國家面臨何種形勢，無論我們

that will execute all

但民主的威脅主要在於民眾的冷漠，有很 處於何種生活狀態。"
多人更願意讓領導人負責所有的改革工 Beyond his father’s request to take care

the laws of the land 作，如果出現問題，便能將所有責任都推

卸到領導人身上。"
of his mother and sisters, imbued with
the spirit of his ancestors, and armed
with impartiality “I believe that such apathy, which has
allowed the return of discarded ideas
with the courage of his parents, Noynoy’s
SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH THE
and decisiveness. and personalities in the highest levels
of governance, goes against the spirit of
FILIPINO PEOPLE is a call to action.
His platform is a commitment to change

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

12 Economy

that Filipinos can depend on. With trust

in their leaders, everyone can work and
build a greater future together.
諾諾·阿基諾不僅要遵從父親要求他照
顧母親及姐妹的囑託，秉承先輩的精神，
繼承父母的勇氣，他還與菲律賓人民簽下
社會責任契約，必須積極行動。建設強大
菲律賓的使命就是他的施政平台。憑藉民
眾對領導人的信賴，領導人定能與民眾共
同打造更美好的未來。
He is committed to become the
nation’s first and most determined fighter
of corruption. Education is his central
strategy, prioritizing jobs, protection of
public health and equal justice to rich and
poor.
他致力於成為菲律賓第一位亦是決心最
堅定的反腐敗鬥士。教育是他的首要施政
領域，其後還有就業、保護公共衛生以及
貧富司法平等。
For the economy, he sees farms and
rural enterprise as vital to achieving
food security. His is a leadership that
will execute all the laws of the land
with impartiality and decisiveness. He
will create conditions conducive to the
growth and competitiveness of private
businesses, big, medium and small. He the sustainable use of natural resources to ● Public institutions rebuilt on the
wants to create more jobs at home, but benefit present and future generations. strong solidarity of our society and its
will prioritize the welfare and protection 他的政府將鼓勵可持續利用自然資源， communities.
of overseas workers. 使當代及後人受益。 ● 以社會及社區的團結為基礎，重建公共
在經濟方面，他將農場及鄉村企業視為 服務機構
實現糧食安全的重要因素。他將公正果敢 In his VISION FOR THE
地執行所有土地法律。他將營造理想環 PHILIPPINES, Noynoy sees: The MISSION which he has chosen to
境，幫助私營企業、大型、中型及小型企 諾諾·阿基諾為菲律賓勾勒的遠景藍圖 accept is that:
業實現增長並提高競爭力。他希望創造更 包括 他將努力實現的使命是
多在家中工作的機會，但會將福利及海外 ● A re-awakening sense of right and We will start to make these changes
勞工保障作為首要工作。 wrong, through the living examples of first in ourselves by doing the right
He wants professional, motivated and our highest leaders. things, by giving value to excellence and
energized bureaucracies with adequate ● 透過最高領導人的以身作則重塑是非 integrity and rejecting mediocrity and
means to perform their public service 觀； dishonesty, and by giving priority to
missions in government service. Selection ● An organized and widely-shared rapid others over ourselves.
should be based on integrity, competence expansion of our economy through 要想改變國家，我們必須首先改變自
and performance in serving the public good. a government dedicated to honing 己，我們應正確行事，使精益求精及正直
他希望實現專業、主動積極且活力十足 and mobilizing our people’s skills and 的精神能創造價值，拒絕平庸及欺詐，堅
的政府機構，使其高效完成政府服務的使 energies as well as the responsible 持先人後己。
命。選拔官員時，必須參照正直、個人能 harnessing of our natural resources. When Noynoy announced his decision
力及公共服務成績標準。 ● 透過政府努力提升人口素質並合理開發 to run, Father Manny Domingo, former
His Mindanao policy will seek a 自然資源，實現經濟有序快速發展，是 parish priest of Don Bosco, Makati,
broadly supported just peace and will 多數人口分享發展成果； expressed what many Filipinos now feel:
redress decades of neglect of the Moro ● A collective belief that doing the right “I HAVE BEEN GIVEN HOPE.”
and other peoples of Mindanao. thing does not only make sense morally, 諾諾·阿基諾宣佈參選總統時，馬卡
他的棉蘭老島（Mindanao）政策將尋求廣 but translates into economic value as 提（Makati）的多波斯哥（Don Bosco）
泛支援，將改變摩洛（Moro）及其他棉蘭老 well. 地區 原教區牧師馬尼·多明戈（Manny
島居民數十年來不受政府重視的現狀。 ● 樹立集體價值觀，即正確行事不僅符合 Domingo）神父一語道出菲律賓人民現時的
His is a government that will encourage 道德要求，還能創造經濟價值； 心情："我終於看到了希望。"|AT|

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 13

作者/by Jack Dixon

That indefatigable business percent. The People’s Daily contends that, 年中國將成為經濟超級大國，變成「世界
locomotive, China, seems set this year given China’s recovery staying strong, 之虎」。他們的樂觀並非空穴來風，因為
to resume its front-running ways in the country “is set to surpass Japan as 中國的經濟增長令人炫目，無能出其右者
the worldwide effort to gain a stronger, the world’s second-biggest economy”, as ｜去年經濟增長8.5%，今年有望續增9.5%
longer-term foothold on economic it cites its leading role in international ，其在全球貿易中所佔的份額，預計也會
recovery. Home-grown analysts have discussions to wean the world away 遠超去年的9%。《人民日報》表示，因為
already voiced their expectations of the from using US dollars for reserves and 中國的復甦勢頭保持強勁，其「有望超越
People’s Republic asserting itself as an instead adopt a basket of currencies – a 日本晉身世界第二大經濟體」。中國在國
economic superpower, the “Worldwide stance, however, that only pays diplomatic 際磋商中一馬當先，力圖使世界擺脫以美
Tiger”, in 2010. Their optimism is aptly lip service towards reforms in the 元為儲備貨幣的舊格局，轉而採用一籃子
anchored on the country’s superlative international financial system, wanting 貨幣｜其實這不過是外交託辭，其真正意
growth performance, better than that only gradual change “but not so fast that 在改革國際金融體系，但中國希望改革以
of any nation on earth – its economy we damage our own assets”. 循序漸進的方式進行，「以免操之過急傷
growing by 8.5 percent last year and is 及自身」。
likely to expand another 9.5 percent this 看來不知疲憊的經濟火車頭中國，今年又 It will be a year for challenges, to say
year, with its share of global trade forecast 要領跑全世界，這將促使經濟復甦更加穩 the least. For it’s the Year of the Tiger,
to extend even much beyond last year’s 9 固和持久。國內已有分析人士放言，2010 what Chinese astrology traditionally

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

14 Economy
associates with extremely volatile
conditions or, as it says, “massive changes
and social upheavals”. Much like the way
Western culture regards the lion as the
legendary Jungle Lord, Chinese culture
admires the tiger’s vivid stripes which
symbolise the balanced forces of yin
and yang – a true force of nature and an
action-packed zodiac figure. In general,
the tiger – as a person – is described as
fearless, stout-hearted and dependable
yet unpredictable most of the times. But
it can be tender and loving – quietly
content to be a homebody, at times. The
impulsive tiger can leap out suddenly,
though, and take on a different tack,
quickly packing up for some remote,
exotic realm. Because of this nature, an
observer may erroneously accuse the tiger
of being irresponsible. But, far from it, its
impulse derives from an innate
ability to think on its feet or a
primal desire for adventure and
first-hand experience in life.
新的一年充滿挑戰。今年是中
國農曆的虎年，交織頗多變數，
亦可說是「重大變革和社會動
盪。」西方文化把雄獅奉為森林
之王，而在中國文化中，老虎身
上的斑斕條紋象徵著陰與陽的調
和，是真正的自然力量。虎是最
勇猛的一個生肖，在人們的觀念
中，肖虎之人性格剛毅,膽識過
人,值得信賴，有時也讓人琢磨
不透。他心地善良，情感豐富，
對身邊人體貼入微。猛虎行蹤飄
忽不定，只要一時興起，不論荒
山野嶺，人跡罕至之處，皆是它的領地。
因為這個天性，有人說老虎三心二意，用
心不專。此言差矣，其實正是百折不撓,
喜好冒險和親身嘗試的精神，才成就了虎
之勇猛。
The Tiger Businessman
商界之虎
Firms yearning for stability after the
difficult past few years may have to see
out the Year of the Tiger altogether as
2010 may yet prove tumultuous on both
the world scene as well as the business
domain. For this year also marks the year
of the Metal Tiger, which last occurred 60
years ago in 1950. It is this metal element
that endows the tiger with its acuteness
in action and speed of thought. A Metal
Tiger is thought to revel being a crowd
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
For this year also marks the year of the Metal Tiger,
which last occurred 60 years ago in 1950. It is
this metal element that endows the tiger its acuteness in
action and speed of thought.
standout, with a motivating assertiveness
and competitive stance that enable it to
set its objectives and prosecute them at all
costs. It is a natural leader who drives its
business with impeccable precision and
is thus likely to prosper in 2010. It is one
that has kept the lessons of the past hard
years and remains focused on keeping
an edge over competitors. Thus, as global
economic recovery sets in, it is the Metal
Tiger of industry that will relentlessly
propel business forward while keeping
handy the lessons of the past few years.
那些好不容易熬過幾年來的風風雨雨，
從心裏渴望安定的公司，恐怕在虎年裏要
繼續熬下去，因為2010年不論是國際形勢
還是營商環境都不會平靜。今年是六十年
一遇的「金虎年」，上一次要追溯到1950
年。「金虎」的思維靈敏，身手矯捷，它
是虎中之傑，堅毅自信，驍勇善戰，有種
不達目的誓不罷休的氣魄。它是百獸之
王，每每出擊百發百中；它善於汲取經
驗，永遠比對手更富競爭力。在全球經濟
復甦之際，總結幾年來的成敗得失，商界
之中的「金虎」必能勇往直前，把事業推
向前進。
But there is a downside to the tiger.
Its characteristic caring for loved ones –
hopelessly protective to unhesitatingly
pounce at the slightest threat to family or
children, wife or lover – surrounds it with
an aura of charismatic authority, always
commanding respect. But it is this regal
attitude which accounts for its firm belief
that it knows what’s best for everyone
and probably the reason for its occasional
descent into stormy temperaments, even
depressive moods, in times of failure.
It is during moments like these when,
standing up to a disgruntled tiger, one
earns its admiration in the quickest way
possible, but only after a furious
Battle Royale. For the tiger is
devoid of a long, sustained fury
and, if one finds the means to
ride out the storm, peace and
harmony will certainly reign
again.
威武外表下，虎也有溫情一
面，對家庭,子女和愛人呵護有
加，危急關頭奮不顧身，保護他
們不受絲毫威脅。它渾身散發王
者之風，叫人肅然起敬，因它深
知慈悲為懷，以德服人。明白這
一點，就不難理解為何它會在挫
敗之時狂躁暴怒，甚至一蹶不
振。能征服一頭猛虎固然了不
起，但那絕少不了一番虎口拔牙
的殊死搏鬥。其實老虎不會永遠狂怒，假
如你懂得以柔克剛，就能讓它恢復溫順，
俯首帖耳。
The Tiger Predictions
虎年運勢
In an extremely volatile business
environment, the tiger will thrive on
chance and unpredictability because it is
best-equipped to confront and deal with,
no matter how dangerously, the many
upheavals in the year ahead. Similarly,
compatible figures such as the dragon
and the horse, in particular, will also be
equally inspired to bolder action and
eventual success by the year’s uncertain
circumstances. Other zodiac characters
will suffer in varying degrees, depending
on their resilience to change, and those
 Economy 15

who can steadily navigate the typically

stormy events foreseen may at worst be
shaken but remain unhampered.
在風雲變幻的商海中，肖虎之人最善把
握機遇和變數，面對今年的波折坎坷，無
論再大艱險都能從容以對。無獨有偶，今
年的前途莫測，同樣會激發肖龍,肖馬之
人的昂揚鬥志，去奪取最後的成功。至
於其他屬相，今年是流年不利，是對人的
應變能力的考驗，若能預判形勢，處變
不驚，則雖挫折難免，但終究不會傷筋
動骨。
As the Worldwide Tiger, China
is poised for even greater economic
triumphs this year after a momentous
2009. With its People’s Republic
turning 60 last year, it has set the stage
to become the economic force to be
reckoned with on Beijing’s successes
in prevailing over the world’s worst
recession since the last World War,
eluding economic disaster with a
mammoth $585-billion stimulus
package. It has surpassed any other
economy in fighting off the global
financial meltdown and is now in an
excellent position to become the world’s 國，今年可望迎來更輝煌的經濟成就。去 Chinese exports including tyres, steel
second largest. This is reason enough for 年是中國的六十華誕，偏巧趕上二戰以來 pipes, grating and tubular goods. China’s
any Business Tiger who is seeking success 最嚴重的世界經濟衰退，危難之際，中央 retaliation was swift, doing the same
in 2010 to keep handy the lessons from 政府出台5,850億美元的經濟刺激計劃，力 on American steel and threatening
China’s recent past and consider leaping 挽狂瀾，一舉讓中國走到世界經濟舞台的 probes into US meat exports. The US
onto business opportunities and growth 中心。面對全球金融風暴，中國的表現力 actions were ignited by strong business
prospects with the Worldwide Tiger. 壓群芳，現在世界第二大經濟體的寶座唾 lobbyists who view the low exchange
送走難忘的2009年，作為世界之虎的中 手可得。對任何想在2010年做出一番成績 rate for China’s currency as posing an
的商界之虎來說，過去一年中國的經驗值 unfair export subsidy which entraps
得借鑒，而這個國家的燦爛前景和誘人商 American consumers into preferring
As the Worldwide 機，更是不容錯過。 Chinese products over locally produced
ones, thereby tending to overspend
Tiger, China is The Tiger’s Tempest
虎之患
at the expense of domestically made
equivalents. Washington politicians could
poised for even During the Year of the Tiger on the echo some economists’ analysis that the

greater economic lunar calendar, three broad challenges for

triumphs this year
after a momentous 2009.
With its People’s Republic
turning 60 last year, it has
set the stage to become
the economic force to be
reckoned with
China appear on its economic horizon
Chinese intention to keep its currency
at a substantially lower value against the
– protectionism, inflation and social
inequality.
dollar already provides fair justification
to the imposition of tariffs for the sake of
虎年的中國經濟有三大挑戰：貿易保護
主義,通貨膨脹,社會不公。
Rising Protectionism
貿易保護主義
Still fresh in the mind is the
problem of rising protectionism,
firstly. Remember that last year was
punctuated by serious trade spats mostly
with the United States, which slapped
anti-dumping duties on a number of

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

16 Economy

balancing trade, especially in the face of the rest for new business investment.
the American unemployment rate’s up-
trending to even higher than 10 percent.
China’s retaliation Political and economic risks are always
borne by monetary instability.
There is also that chance that Washington was swift, doing the 其次是通貨膨脹問題。去年政府授意銀
could label the ever-expanding Chinese
manufacturing activities as contributory same on American 行放貸達1.5萬億美元，已經埋下通脹的伏
筆。再加上海外投機資本推波助瀾，一時
to global warming. But whether that is
well-founded or baseless, protectionism
steel and threatening 間金融資產如股票,房地產等急劇膨脹，結
果是大陸頻現地王，香港賣出天價公寓。
can only lead to trade disruptions that probes into US meat 深圳創業板成功開盤，首批股票上市第一
would adversely affect China’s export-
driven economy. exports. 天全線翻番，第二批股票上市一個月最高
上漲達三倍。令人費解的是，一方面零售
首先是貿易保護主義抬頭的問題令人記 物價幾乎裹足不前，另一方面資產和大宗
憶猶新。回想去年，中美之間有過多次嚴 商品如石油,鋼鐵等卻在飆升。流動性氾濫
重貿易摩擦，美國對中國出口商品包括輪 成災，加息固然可從市場抽走多餘現金，
胎,鋼管,鋼格板,管材等大肆徵收反傾銷 但也嚴重阻礙經濟增長。中國貨幣當局已
關稅。中國旋即反制，以彼之道還施於美 開始收緊信貸以緩解通脹壓力，惟此舉未
國鋼材，並威脅要對美國出口的肉製品實 必奏效，因為現在銀行與地方政府之間關
施調查。美國的舉動背後離不開商界說客 係緊密，意味著新貸款未必都能用到實
的煽風點火，在他們看來，人民幣的低匯 處。明智的做法是削減今年的放貸目標，
率如同不公平的出口補貼，誘惑美國消費 同時採取進一步措施，保證大部份貸款都
者購買中國商品，以致美國貨失寵，其過 投放到基建項目，餘下則用於新的企業投
度消費的表像下，是以犧牲國貨為代價。 資。貨幣體系不容閃失，否則將引發政治
華盛頓的政客們附和一些經濟學家的分析 和經濟風險。
說，既然中國決意維持人民幣兌美元的低 initial group of stocks doubled on the
匯率，那麼對其徵收關稅以保持貿易平衡 first trading day, and the second batch Social Inequality
便在情理之中，尤其是在美國失業率居高 tripled a month later. Then there’s this 社會不公
不下突破10%大關的時候。或許華盛頓還會 confusing situation wherein retail prices The third challenge is social inequality,
給中國熱火朝天的製造業貼上導致全球變 are remaining almost stagnant while the said to be the least discernible but the
暖的罪魁禍首的標籤。不論有理有據，還 prices of assets and of basic commodities most perilous. Simply stated, the gap
是無中生有，貿易保護主義只會引發貿易 like oil and iron ore are soaring. There’s between the rich and the poor must be
爭端，衝擊以出口為驅動力的中國經濟。 just too much money in circulation. An widening, what with asset prices rising
interest rates rise could drain out this fast, wage levels increasing marginally,
Inflation extra cash from the markets, but it could an unemployment rate of 4 percent
通貨膨脹 also slow down growth considerably. discounting the 150 million migrant
Inflation is a second problem, one Chinese monetary authorities have workers, and less than 70 percent of
type of which has already arrived as resorted to lending restrictions to ease up graduates getting employed. The Gini
an offshoot of the government’s $1.5- inflationary pressure. But this may not be coefficient, a measure of economic
trillion bank-lending measures last year. good enough because strong links prevail inequality, suggests an alarming trend:
Along with speculative overseas capital between banks and local governments, China is becoming more unequal at
inflows, it resulted in a price explosion meaning new loans are not necessarily a frightening rate. In 2007, the Asian
in financial assets such as stocks and channeled to the most productive. It is Development Bank pegged China’s
property, with Beijing registering record wise to reduce lending targets this year Gini at 0.47, approaching Argentina’s
land prices and Hong Kong record but extra steps have to be taken to ensure and Mexico’s, as compared with 24 years
apartment prices. And with the successful that a major piece of the pie goes towards earlier in 1983 when China’s 0.28 was
opening of Shenzhen’s new bourse, the finishing up infrastructure projects and in the category of Sweden, Japan and

Along with speculative overseas capital inflows, it

resulted in a price explosion in financial assets such as stocks
and property, with Beijing registering record land prices
and Hong Kong record apartment prices.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 17

Metal Tiger as fiercely as ever before.

一直以來，中國都在想方設法克服這些
難題，比如運用謀略或外交手段，比如控
制銀行系統，再比如審慎動用國家機器。
但假如命中註定這些隱患一同興風作浪，
金虎之年的世界之虎無疑將面臨比從前更
兇險的挑戰。
… Breaking News: “China with its
population of 1.3 billion has overtaken
Germany, population 82 million, as the
world’s top exporter… From January
to November, Chinese exports were
worth $1.07 trillion, while German
data showed that exports from Europe’s
biggest economy amounted to $1.05
trillion…”
…重大消息：「擁有13億人口的中國已
超越擁有8,200萬人口的德國，成為世界
第一出口大國…1至11月，中國出口額達
1.07萬億美元，而德國公佈的數據則顯
示，這個歐洲最大經濟體的出口額為1.05
萬億美元…」
… Breaking News: “US authorities
Germany. Observers say such a pace of reported that a staggering 96 percent slapped tariffs on Chinese wire decking
acceleration “is virtually unheard of ”. of respondents “resent the rich”. It is no
Couple this with the truism that the coincidence that Xinjiang province, where
biggest worry for policy-makers is that riots occurred last year, has one of China’s
an idle and unequal populace will create biggest wealth imbalances.
unrest and an explosive accident waits 第三個挑戰是社會不公，它最容易被忽
to happen. In fact, a recent survey by the 視，卻是極其危險。如今，貧富差距越來
Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences 越大，資產價格飛漲，工資卻像蝸牛，表
面上失業率僅4%，實則並未算入1.5億農
民工，大學生畢業後就業率不到七成。反
the gap between the 映貧富差距的基尼係數令人不安：中國的

rich and the poor

基尼係數高的恐怖，正在變成越來越不公
平的國家。2007年，亞洲開發銀行公佈中
國的基尼係數為0.47，接近阿根廷和墨西
must be widening, 哥，而二十四年前的1983年，中國的基尼
what with asset prices 係數還只有0.28，與瑞典,日本和德國為
伍。觀察人士說如此之快的速度是「聞所
rising fast, wage levels 未聞」。心懷不滿又無所事事的民眾是政
府的心腹大患，遲早要鬧出亂子，這是自
increasing marginally, an 古以來的道理。最近浙江省社會科學院調 after a preliminary finding that the

unemployment rate of 4
percent discounting the
150 million migrant
查發現，有高達96%的受訪者「仇富」。 products were dumped at below market
新疆是中國貧富差距最大的地區之一，這 value… tariffs of between 42.61 to 289
與去年的新疆騷亂不無關係。
Historically, China always finds
percent will be imposed and collected
until a final determination is made in
a way to overcome adversities and it
could probably address these problems
the case…”

workers, and less

…重大消息：「美國當局決定對中國產
through such measures as tact or 鋼絲層板加征關稅，此前的初步調查顯示

than 70 percent diplomacy, a controlled bank system

and the prudent use of state force, one
該產品存在低於市價傾銷的行為…課征關
稅介於42.61%至289%，直至作出最終裁決
after another. But if the challenges
of graduates getting come rampaging in an apocalyptic
為止…」
The Tiger’s tempest has made a
employed. bunch, then the Worldwide Tiger will landfall. Can China ride it out?
have to contend with the Year of the 山雨欲來，但願中國虎口脫險。|AT|

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

18
作者/by by Michelle Foong
Successful Smart Card
Footprints
智能卡應用的成功經驗
Hong Kong is undoubtedly among
the key adopters of smart card, auto-id
and security technology in Asia Pacific.
In the smart cards arena, key applications
in this country include government ID,
mass transit, SIM and banking.
香港是亞太地區智能卡,自動識別與安防技
術普及度最高的地區之一。在香港，智能
卡主要應用於政府身份識別,公共交通,SIM
卡和銀行業務。
Hong Kong has one of the highest
mobile penetration rates in the
region, with over 100% subscriber
penetration rate in a competitive mobile
communication market. 3G services
were introduced in the country in 2004.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Economy
The profile of mobile subscribers in was launched in 1997, one of the earliest
the country is considered to be fairly in the world. As a result the card is
sophisticated when compared to the rest widely used in the country today, with
of the region. However, due to the size of a circulation rate of approximately 16
the country, Hong Kong’s SIM market is million in 2008 and over 50,000 readers
still considered relatively small, although at mass transit points and merchant
it is well established. outlets. The card is also used for payment
香港的流動電話普及率在本地區首屈一 at selected merchant outlets, making
指。在競爭激烈的流動通訊市場，幾乎人 it both a travel card and a contactless
手一部流動電話，早在2004年便引入3G服 e-purse card.
務。相比亞太其他國家，香港的流動電話 在亞太地區，香港的無接觸式智能卡公
用戶相當成熟，然而由於地域狹小，香港 共交通項目「八達通卡」，堪稱應用典
的SIM卡市場雖然很早就已形成，但整體規 範。此卡已推廣到香港的各類公共交通工
模依然不大。 具，作為支付車資的手段。項目肇始於
One of the highest profile applications 1997年，為世界的先行者之一。今天，八
in Asia Pacific is Hong Kong’s 達通卡遍佈全港，2008年流通量約1,600萬
‘contactless’ smart card mass transit 張，在大大小小的公交站點和店舖裝有五
project, the Octopus Card, used for fare 萬多個讀卡器。此卡可在指定商店消費，
collection on various mode of public 集旅遊卡和無接觸式電子錢包卡的功能於
transport in the country. This project 一身。
 Economy 19

Following the footsteps of other countries in the region

like Taiwan and Malaysia, Hong Kong has also
begun migrating their bank cards from
magnetic stripe to chip based bank cards.

Another significant implementation
in Hong Kong is the government
ID application, SMARTICS (Smart
Identity Card System). This is a citizen
card that began issuance in 2003 and
was completed within a few years.
The card is used for identification,
government services and e-banking.
SMARTICS is known to be well
executed and implemented in the
region, lending it several regional and
international awards in the government
ID field. Based on the same MULTOS
platform used for the citizen card, the
country also implemented and issued
their e-passport documents, another
government issued document using
smart card technology, to their citizens
beginning 2007.
The above mentioned projects illustrate Hong Kong can be considered as
Hong Kong’s wide adoption of both one of the key promising followers for
contact and contactless technology for RFID Technology in Asia Pacific. The
over a decade. The country is expected to country has strong support from its
continue experiencing demand for smart government especially in supply chain
cards in all key applications through new management, similar to China. The
projects, upgrades and replacement cards approved UHF bands in Hong Kong
in the various sectors. are 865-868 MHz (2W erp) and 920-
十餘年來無論接觸式還是無接觸式技 925 MHz (4W erp).
術，都在香港得到廣泛應用，由上述項目 香港是亞太地區RFID技術的主要踐行者
可見一斑。今後所有關鍵應用上的智能卡 之一。跟內地一樣，這項技術得到港府的
Hong Kong Contactless Smart Cards: Physical Access
Control Market, 2008
香港的無接觸式智能卡：2008年門禁控制市場
6000.0 8.0%
6.0%

Revenue Growth Rate (%)

香港的另一個創舉是政府身份識別的應
4000.0
Revenues ($ '000)

用，即SMARTICS（智能身份證系統）。這
收入（千美元）

收入增長率（%）
是2003年開始發行的一種市民卡，在短短
幾年內完成推廣，主要用於身份識別,政府 4.0%
服務和電子銀行。SMARTICS的推廣應用在
本地區有口皆碑，贏得了政府身份識別領
2000.0
域的許多國際和區域大獎。依託這種市民
2.0%
卡的MULTOS平台，從2007年起，香港開始
向市民簽發和推廣電子護照，這是又一種
採用智能卡技術的政府簽發證件。
Following the footsteps of other
0.0 0.0%
countries in the region like Taiwan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
and Malaysia, Hong Kong has also 年度 Year
begun to migrate bank cards from CAGR: 5.5%
magnetic stripe to chip based bank 複合年增長率: 5.5%
cards. This migration, better known as
the EMV migration, began in 2006 and
is intended to reduce fraud through 需求將持續不斷，各領域的新項目,升級換 鼎力支持，尤其是供應鏈管理上的應用。
utilizing more secure and tamper-proof 代和補換卡工程亦將陸續有來。 在香港，當局批准的UHF頻段是865-868
bank cards. MHz (2W erp)和920-925 MHz(4W erp)。
緊隨台灣,馬來西亞等區內國家，香港開 Security is Country’s Priority • Hong Kong RFID development is
啟了從磁條銀行卡向晶片銀行卡的轉變過 安全第一 strongly supported by the government.
程，即所謂的「EMV升級」，從2006年開始 It is one of the top research areas
透過採用更安全,防篡改的銀行卡，以減少 RFID for the Hong Kong Research and
欺詐風險。 無線射頻識別(RFID) Development (R&D) Centre

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

20 Economy
for Logistics and Supply Chain
Management Enabling Technologies.
It receives funding support from
the Innovation and Technology
Commission of the Hong Kong
Government.
• 香港政府大力扶持RFID技術的發展，它
是香港物流及供應鏈管理應用技術研發
中心（下稱「研發中心」）的重點研究
領域之一，由香港政府創新科技署提供
經費資助。
• SCM R&D Centre works together
with three leading universities in
Hong Kong: The University of Hong
Kong, Chinese University and Hong
The Hong Kong Security Market is mature
and has always been an early adopter of the latest
technologies in security applications.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Kong University of Science and
Technology.
• 研發中心與香港三大名
校，即香港大學,香港中
文大學和香港科技大學
聯手開展研發工作。
• The
Government’s
Innovation and
Technology Fund
has provided financial
support for many RFID-related
projects amounting to US$13.84
million (HK$108 million). The Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region
Government also provides financial
support through the Innovation and
Technology Fund.
• 香港特別行政區政府通過創新及科技
基金提供財政支援，目前基金已為許多
RFID相關項目提供資助達1,384萬美元
（1.08億港元）。
• These funds are given not only to
encourage more involvement in RFID
technology but also to improve RFID
tagging and embedding technology,
application of RFID technology in
food safety, enhancement of privacy
protection and communication
security, and development of a
real-time manufacturing shop-floor
information infrastructure.
• 這些資助旨在鼓勵業界更多參與RFID技
術的研發，並且完善RFID標籤及嵌入技
術，促進RFID在食品安全上的應用，加
強私隱保護和通訊安全，及開發工作場
所實時資訊基礎設施。
• The ‘Guangdong-Hong Kong
Technology Co-operation Funding
Scheme’ is a joint fund between
the Hong Kong and Shenzhen
governments, which includes funding
for RFID projects.
• 香港與深圳兩地政府合辦的「粵港科技
合作資助計劃」，亦把RFID項目納入資
助之列。
Some of the key applications
creating demand in the market are
baggage handling, food security, fleet
management, transportation, and supply
chain amongst others.
一些關鍵應用如行李裝卸,食品安全,車
隊管理,交通運輸,供應鏈等等，都有旺盛
的市場需求。
Some major events are also helping
to increase visibility for Hong Kong’s
growing market.
從以下幾個重要事件，可看出香港市場
的廣闊前景。
• The Hong Kong RFID Centre,
co-hosted by the Innovation and
Technology Commission of the
Hong Kong SAR Government, Hong
Kong Science and Technology Parks
Corporation (HKSTP) and GS1
Hong Kong (GS1), was established
to promote the development of RFID
in Hong Kong, encourage application
among industries and enhance public
awareness of this technology and its
significance for the economic and social
development of Hong Kong.
• 香港RFID中心，由香港特區政府創新科
技署,香港科技園公司及香港貨品編碼協
會共同創辦，旨在促進香港無線射頻識
別技術的發展，鼓勵各行業的應用，提
升該技術的公眾認知度及其對香港社會
經濟發展的影響力。
• The Hong Kong RFID Awards were
established since 2007 to recognize
RFID industry pioneers, encourage

The travel industry is keenly looking at
biometrics and has already installed facial biometrics
scanners at select railway stations. Facial biometrics has
been employed at stations where the train travels to and
from China.
RFID development and to nurture the
development of new RFID products in
Hong Kong.
• 香港RFID大獎，創辦於2007年，旨在表
彰RFID業界先驅，促進RFID發展，及培
育香港本地的RFID產品開發。
Security
安防產品
The Hong Kong Security Market is
mature and has always been an early
adopter of the latest technologies in
security applications. The total Electronic
Access Control Systems (EACS) and
surveillance market has been showing
positive growth year on year, especially
contactless smart cards and biometrics.
End users in Hong Kong are concerned
about new technology trends in EACS
and hence prefer integration with other
systems such as time attendance.
香港有成熟的安防產品市場，是應用安
防技術的先行者。電子門禁系統（EACS）
和監視產品市場逐年進步，尤以非接觸
式智能卡和生物識別技術的發展勢頭最顯
著。香港的終端用戶關注EACS技術的最新
趨勢，喜歡把它跟其他系統（如考勤）整
合在一起使用。
• Access control finds major application
in prominent Government
departments like the Customs &
Excise Department, the Police Force,
the Airport Authority, the Fire
Services Department, and the main
transportation controllers Kowloon
Canton Railway and Mass Transit
Railway.
• 門禁控制主要應用於政府的要害部門，
如海關,警務處,機場管理局,消防署等，
以及九鐵,地鐵兩大捷運系統。
• There is high demand for various types
of property protection equipment,
including physical access control, in
Hong Kong. The increase in awareness
following the 9/11 terrorist attack
in 2001 and the SARS outbreak in
2003 has fueled demand for security,
especially for the Hong Kong
International Airport.
• 香港對財產保護設備（包括門禁控制）
有龐大需求。2001年的「911」恐怖襲擊
及2003年的SARS大爆發，令民眾防範意
識增強，安防需求激增，尤以香港國際
機場為甚。
• The travel industry is keenly looking
at biometrics and has already installed
facial biometrics scanners at select
railway stations. Facial biometrics
has been employed at stations where
the train travels to and from China.
Facial biometrics scanners scan the
individual’s face during departure and
match the same when the individual
returns from his/her destination. The
facial biometrics employed here is not
for access control but is being used as a
security measure to identify terrorists or
other marked individuals.
• 旅遊業相當重視生物識別技術，並已
在特定的鐵路站點裝備面部掃描儀。往
返內地的沿線火車站，均已啟用面部識
別。掃描儀在乘客啟程時掃描其面部，
待其從目的地返回後再掃描一次，前後
印證比對。這種面部識別並非為了出入
控制，而是一種鑑別恐怖分子或其他需
甄別之人的安全措施。
• Certain mobile phones are also
employing biometrics today for logical
access control applications.
• 如今某些流動電話也採用生物識別技
術，用於邏輯存取控制。
It is quite evident that biometrics
is being tested and employed in every
sector of society and has found to be
Economy 21
useful, especially for largely populated
cities like Hong Kong. Hong Kong is
following new technologies in using
access control systems. A majority of
users prefer readers that support multi-
application functions, offer high security,
and are reasonably priced. Integration
of technology is increasingly becoming
popular in Hong Kong because of their
ease of use and installation.
顯而易見，生物識別技術正在各行各業
接受著考驗和運用，結果是不負眾望，尤
其適合香港這樣人口稠密的城市，而香港
也一直走在門禁系統技術的最前沿。那些
支援多重應用功能,安全性強且價格合理
的讀卡器，最受用戶青睞。技術的整合在
香港日益盛行，因為它易於使用，又方便
安裝。
The market for IP surveillance is
mature in Hong Kong in terms of
technology penetration and infrastructure
although traditional analog equipment
suppliers are still reluctant to commit the
R&D investment to push the video server
line. Certain suppliers that have ventured
into the IP video surveillance market
have chosen to focus on IP/network
cameras instead.
香港的IP監視市場，無論是技術普及度
還是基建水平，都已達到成熟。不過，傳
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
22 Economy

The current economic

recession indicates
that participants that
were looking at a short-
term gain were the worst
affected, while those
looking at long-terms
gains still have their
investments in 監視設備需求亦水漲船高，以監視這些
場所的顧客和員工的行為。除此之外，
虧，惟有目光長遠，才能立於不敗之地。
然而衰退襲來之際，縱使再有遠見的企
place. 這些公司還將從政府提振經濟的投資中
受惠。
業也難免受到衝擊，衰退固然可怕，但更
重要的是重振旗鼓，鍥而不捨，才不致被
In addition, during these hard times 淘汰出局。
統模擬設備供應商投資研發視頻伺服器系 where companies are reducing their The same applies to the smart card
統的熱情還不算高，一些涉足IP視頻監視 workforce, physical security becomes industry. On the whole, the smart
市場的供應商都把主要精力放在IP／網絡 increasingly important to overcome card industry participants should
攝像機上。 issues regarding both external and concentrate on their core competencies
Outlook in Hong Kong internal workplace theft. for their respective applications
香港市場的前景 艱難時期許多公司都會裁員，為了化解 through utilizing all the benefits
No country has been immune to 工作場所監守自盜和來自外部的盜竊風 from government subsidies, tax cuts,
the global financial crisis; Hong Kong 險，實體安防的重要性日漸凸顯。 and so on. The next stage should be
and every industry out there have been Falling prices of security products in investing, or at least laying the
affected by this crisis, with varying are likely to increase adoption during foundation, for the next year from
degrees of severity. The short-term future this slump in the economy. Although when an economic upswing is likely
for the industry looks challenging. companies might not realize the ROI to be witnessed. New applications
全球金融危機中無一國家得以倖免，而 with the fall in prices, these lower prices should be tapped now. Strategic
香港和本地的各行各業亦都受到不同程度 might help them to remain in business; alliances should also not be ruled
的衝擊。金融市場的動盪直至2009年第三, falling prices will make the security out. A strategic alliance would help
四季度才有所平息，餘波恐怕蔓延到2010 systems and their applications much the industry participant to expand
年，行業短期前景不容樂觀。 more economical to install. to new markets, as well as allow it to
The failing economy could, however, 經濟不景氣，安防產品的價格跟著下 concentrate on its core competency.
provide a boon for companies that 跌，而這也許會成為其推廣使用的契機。 智能卡行業也是同樣的道理。整體而
are involved in security. As economic 價格下跌不會給公司帶來投資回報，但卻 言，業界公司當善用政府補貼,減稅等契
pressures filter down to the middle and 有助公司維持經營，因為降價後的安防系 機，著力培育自身的核心競爭力。下一
lower income classes, crime will increase. 統及其應用在安裝上要實惠得多。 步要著眼於來年的投資，務求為來年打
In the light of this, large growth can The current economic recession 好基礎，以迎接經濟回升。現在開發新
be expected in electronic access control indicates that participants that were 的應用正當其時，亦可考慮戰略聯盟。
systems and video surveillance to monitor looking at a short-term gain were the 聯盟有助業界參與者開拓新的市場，亦
customer and employee behaviors in worst affected, while those looking 可使其更加專注自身的核心競爭力。|AT|
retail outlets, shopping malls, hotels, at long-terms gains still have their
parking lots, and so on. It is also expected investments in place. However, this This article was authored by Michelle
that the companies will benefit from does not mean that the long-term Foong, Industry Analyst, Asia Pacific
any government investment that will participants are not affected by Smart Cards Practice and Parul Oswal,
help compensate for the decline in the the recession. They need not be as Industry Analyst, Asia Pacific RFID &
economy. concerned about the current recession, Security Practice, Frost & Sullivan.
然而，下滑的經濟卻為從事安防業務的 but will still have to reinforce their 本文作者：Michelle Foong（Frost
公司帶來商機。隨著經濟壓力施加於中低 projects to make sure that they do not & Sullivan亞太智能卡業務部行業分析
收入階層，犯罪率將會上升，於是店舖,商 go off track. 師）,Parul Oswal（Frost & Sullivan亞
場,酒店,停車場等的電子門禁系統及影像 這輪經濟衰退告訴我們，逐短利者吃大 太RFID與安防業務部行業分析師）。

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010


作者/by Chethan Kambi
The airlines in India, like most
other airlines around the world suffered
losses during the recession, but not
to an extent that drove any of them
to shut down. The recession was one
of the factors airlines had to weather
along with many more such as taxes,
fuel charges, maintenance costs, leasing
charges, etc. The situation however
saw a shift in the market dynamics of
the airline industry as low cost airlines
became the preferred airlines for
many corporate, business and frequent
travellers. In fact, some of the low cost
airlines increased their market share
in the downturn. The airlines in India
Economy 23
realize that the long-term potential 務領域的長期潛力無窮，即使在經濟略有
of the industry is lucrative and the 好轉的情況下，市場需求亦會十分旺盛。
demand scenario will be positive even During the recession, most airlines in
with the slightest positive change in the India only had to ground a very fractional
economy. size of their entire fleet, but the positive
sign of growth in the Indian market is
與全球各地其他航空公司類似，印度航空 reflected in the resumption of operations
公司在經濟低迷期間損失慘重，但沒有一 by almost the majority of fleets owned
家公司達到破產倒閉的境地。經濟低迷只 by the airlines in India (both legacy
是航空公司必須面對的問題之一，其他因 and low cost). The Director General
素還包括稅收,燃油成本,保養費用,租賃 of Civil Aviation India (DCGA) has
成本等。不過，航空公司積極應對形勢變 reported that there has been a growth
化，廉價航空公司已成為諸多公司,企業 of 26% in domestic passenger traffic in
及頻繁出行者的新寵。實際上，部分廉價 2009 compared to that of the previous
航空公司在經濟低迷時期的市場份額甚至 year. Also, the airlines in India realize
有增無減。印度的航空公司意識到，該業 the long term business potential and
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
24 Economy

還與OEM（原始設備製造商）及授權的 MRO
中心等因素密不可分。印度目前缺乏此類
An aircraft is a million dollar investment MRO 設施，由於目前存在難以滿足的巨大

that, with proper maintenance, can continue to

市場需求，印度為諸多跨國 MRO 企業及投
資機構提供大量投資機會。存在投資機會

operate for long terms of anywhere between 18 and

的原因包括：當前航班量,行業對 MRO 服
務的需求量,市場潛力以及其他潛在的收
22 years. 入來源。

Aircraft Scenario
飛機現狀
the importance of staying put in the different for each of these activities and MRO establishments require a certain
business. However, in order for the also depends on factors such as OEMs number of aircrafts to visit their hangars
airlines to sustain and operate under (Original Equipment Manufacturers) annually, for different activities. In a
favourable limits, all the ‘additional’ costs and authorized MRO centres. Currently, country like India where there is a lack
have to be curtailed. One of the areas in India there is a lack of these MRO of efficient and highly capable MRO
where major cost savings may be realized facilities and the huge needy market facilities, the scope for setting up MROs
for the airlines in India is in aircraft waiting to be fulfilled poses tremendous is high. The cost required to set up, again
maintenance. Aircraft maintenance is potential investment opportunity for is dependent on the aircraft type (Narrow
a major cost factor for airlines in India many international MRO players and body or Wide body) and the location
since the maintenance industry is not investors. The opportunity exists due to (SEZs or Airports or Aeroparks).
at a level that meets the requirements several reasons such as the current fleet MRO 服務設施的持續運轉要求每年有特
and needs of the industry. There is a very dynamics, the scope of MRO activities 定數量的飛機進入維修機庫，完成不同的
prominent gap between the demand and that are required, the market potential 保養工作。由於印度缺乏運轉高效且服務
supply scenario in the maintenance needs. and other potential revenue generating 能力較強的 MRO 設施，新建 MRO 設施的
在經濟低迷時期，印度多數航空公司不 streams. 服務領域十分寬廣。建立 MRO 設施的成本
得不縮減航班規模，但印度航空公司擁有 一架飛機需要投入上百萬美元，如能得 與飛機類型（窄體或寬體）及選址（SEZ,
的多數航線已恢復營運（包括傳統航空公 到理想的保養，營運期可長達18至22年。 機場或航空園區）息息相關。
司及廉價航空公司），成為印度市場出現 飛機的全部保養工作被稱為 MRO，即保養 The average age of the current Indian
增長的積極信號。印度民航局局長公佈的 （Maintenance）,維修（Repair）及檢修 aircraft fleet is fairly young and this is a
統計資料顯示，較之去年，印度2009年國 （Overhaul），分為引擎,機身,線路及其他 very critical factor in terms of setting up
內客流量增長26％。印度的航空公司同時 部分（系統,組件及翻新）的保養。各項工 an MRO business in the country. Close
認識到長期業務潛力及保持業務運轉的重 作以飛機的營運週期為基礎，具體視飛機 to 60% of the existing fleet fall below 5
要性。不過，為保持航空公司在合理限度 類型及飛機品牌而定。不同工作對人員的 years of age; which is an eye opening fact
內維持營運，必須嚴格削減所有「額外」 能力,專業知識及技能證書要求不一，同時 for many of the investors as this means
成本。飛機保養是印度航空公司實現大幅
成本節省的領域之一。對印度的航空公司
而言，飛機保養是重要成本因素，原因在
於，印度的飛機保養行業發展水平無法滿
足航空業的需求。飛機保養的需求與服務
提供之間存在巨大缺口。
An aircraft is a million dollar
investment that, with proper
maintenance, can continue to operate
for long terms of anywhere between 18
and 22 years. The entire maintenance
activity of aircraft, termed MRO –
Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul, is
classified into Engine, Airframe, Line
and Other (Systems, Components and
Refurbishments) maintenance. All these
activities are based on certain operating
cycles for the aircraft and are dependent
on the aircraft type and aircraft brand.
The level of personnel skill, expertise
and the certifications required are

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 25

that a majority of the aircraft will come

off the warranty period soon and that is
when they will start hitting the MROs. Despite the fact that there is/will be a huge market for
MROs in the country, many airlines currently send
目前，印度的民用飛機機齡較低，這對
於在印度開拓 MRO 業務具有重要意義。印
度目前的民用飛機近60％的機齡不足5年，
諸多投資人可從中嗅到投資機遇，即多數 their aircraft out of the country, due to the lack of existing
飛機的保修期即將結束，將為 MRO 業務帶
來巨大市場。
local sophisticated facilities
Despite the fact that there is/will be a
huge market for MROs in the country,
many airlines currently send their aircraft
out of the country, due to the lack of
existing local sophisticated facilities. As
of 2009, a total of 391 aircraft are owned
by airlines in India and this number is
expected to reach a figure of 612 by the
year ending 2015. So from the point
of view of the aircraft number, which
happens to be very important for the
MRO activities, it also poses a good sign
for investment in the country.
儘管印度存在或即將出現巨大的 MRO 市
場，但由於目前國內缺乏成熟的設施，諸
多航空公司只能選擇將飛機送至海外維
護。截至2009年，印度的航空公司共擁有
391架飛機，預計截至2015年底，該數字將
攀升至612架。由於飛機數量是 MRO 業務
的關鍵要素，就飛機數量來看，印度市場 亦有重要影響。保養成本是航空公司的持 of the MRO as a major factor, and in
可提供難得的投資機遇。 續開支項目。購買飛機後，引擎或飛機必 order for this credibility factor to be
須定期維護，嚴格遵守廠商的質素及時間 established, it would be imperative to
Scope for MRO Activities 要求。合理完成保養工作是降低總體成本 incorporate internationally renowned
MRO 業務的範圍 的關鍵。 MROs in JVs and collaborations. The
Assets owned by commercial airlines The airlines in India spend close to make or break of JVs or collaborations
have long operational life cycles and 13.0% to 15.0% of their revenues on in India depends heavily on the profit
are worth multi-million dollars. The maintenance. Currently, the airlines are sharing models. Several foreign MRO
majority of airline operating costs can be looking forward to MRO facilities in companies have had or are having
attributed to labour, fuel/oil, ownership, the country that comply with standards discussions with Indian entities to form
and maintenance. Maintenance, repair, (FAA, EASA, and DGCA) so that JVs, but the bottom line is that the
and overhaul (MRO) is a key activity costs can be reduced with better turn gestation period and the return co-
that ensures sustained operation of around. The key aspects for MROs will efficient will determine the nature of set
both aircraft and engines and also has be maintenance processes, practices, up and holding structure.
an impact on the safety of the aircraft. and efficiency that are to be brought in 印度的航空公司一般將收入的13.0％至
Maintenance costs for airlines are a correspondence with infrastructure and 15.0％用於保養。目前，印度的航空公司
constant expenditure. Once procured, the response time. Currently, the majority of 正積極尋找國內符合行業標準（FAA,EASA
engine or aircraft has to be maintained the Indian fleet of aircraft fly out of the 及 DGCA）的 MRO 設施，從而降低成本，
regularly with adherence to quality country for heavy maintenance activities. 提高業績。維護流程,實際操作及工作效
and time lines. Performing optimal This trend is expected to increase once 率是 MRO 業務的關鍵要素，同時還需具
maintenance is the key toward reducing the average age starts increasing and 備相應的基礎設施，且擁有快速相應能
the overall costs. this is the main reason that the country 力。目前，印度多數民用飛機須飛赴海
民用航空公司擁有的資產營運週期較 requires MROs to be set up. Also, 外完成重大保養工作。如果平均機齡開始
長，價值數百萬美元。航空公司主要營 labour rates that are charged in India 增加，預計將有更多飛機要到海外完成保
運成本的構成要素包括人工,燃油,採購 will effectively be 15 to 20 dollars less 養，這正是印度需要發展 MRO 服務的主
費用及維護保養費用。保養,維修及檢修 per man hour. Many airlines in India 要原因。另外，印度國內的工時費僅為每
（MRO）是至關重要的工作內容，可確保 who are willing to send their aircraft 人每小時不到15至20美元。對於多數印度
飛機及引擎的持續正常運轉，對飛機安全 to domestic MROs view the credibility 航空公司而言，如由國內 MRO 服務機構

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

26 Economy

保養飛機，此類 MRO 服務機構的專業可 • Market addressability is expected to be 佔據 MRO 業務鏈的較大比例。

信度是重要考慮因素，為建立此專業可信 good with regards to the Indian fleet • The nature of work involved is very skill
度，吸引國際著名 MRO 服務機構建立合 and is bound to improve over the next intensive and cost is also high.
資公司及合作勢在必行。印度國內合資公 years. • 引擎保養工作對技術能力要求較
司或合作關係的成敗主要由利潤分享模式 • 鑒於印度民航業務將在未來幾年內 高，成本亦較高
決定。多家境外 MRO 公司已經或正在與 顯著增長，市場前景可觀。 • Engine maintenance is an activity
印度企業協商建立合資公司，業務孕育期 • The entire MRO market is tracked in that requires accreditation and
及回報係數將成為決定公司性質及持股結 terms of revenues and fleet. authorization from the OEMs to carry
構的關鍵。 • 可參照收入及飛機規模追蹤整個 out the tasks.
MRO 市場。 • 要想完成引擎保養工作，OEM 合作
MROs in India: 方必須具備專業可信度及授權。
印度的 MRO 市場： Engine:
• Currently, the MRO market in India 引擎： Airframe:
remains unattended and the scope for a • In terms of cost, engine maintenance 機身：
third-party MRO is quite high. constitutes a major portion of the • Airframe maintenance forms the next
• 目前，印度的 MRO 市場不受重視， MRO chain in the Indian scenario. important link in the MRO chain.
第三方 MRO 機構的業務範圍廣闊。 • 就成本而言，引擎保養在印度市場 • 機身保養是 MRO 業務鏈的下一個重
要環節。
Commercial Aviation MRO Market: Total MRO Revenue Forecasts(India), 2009-2015 • The aircraft follows certain cycles and
民航 MRO 市 場：合計 MRO 收入預 測（印度） ，2009年−2015年
this cycle incorporates the various
Engine Maintenance 引擎保養 Airframe Heavy Maintenance 機身重大保養 checks at different stages.
Line Maintenance 線路保養
1100
Component Maintenance 1,067.8
• 飛機須遵守特定的使用週期，使用
1000 週期內，必須在不同階段完成多種
900 檢修。
800
• Airframe maintenance is labour-
intensive and the time period for
Revenues ($ Million)
收入（百萬美元）

700
carrying out checks depends on the
600
498.8 nature of the check.
500
• 機身保養須投入密集勞動力，完成
400 檢修所需的時間由檢修性質決定。
300
200 Line:
100
線路：
0 • Line maintenance is done on a constant
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 basis.
• 線路保養須持續進行。
• All the airlines carry out this task on
the tarmac. This day to day activity
Commercial Aviation MRO Market: Overall Fleet Forecasts(India), 2009-2015
民航 MRO 市 場：飛機規模總體預測（印度），2009年−2015年 involves basic checks that help to
maintain good health of the aircraft.
700 16%
• 所用航空公司均在停機坪上完成該
600 14% 工作。該日常保養公司包括基礎檢
查，有助於保持飛機的健康狀態。
12%
500 • Qualified engineers and technicians
carry out the line maintenance checks
Fleet Growth Rate(%)

10%
飛機メ長率（％）

9.8%
Number of Aircraft

400 as stipulated and required.

飛機數量

8.3% 8%
• 具備資格的工程師及技術人員須按
300
5.9% 6% 照規定及要求完成線路保養。
200 4.4% 4.8%
4% Other:
100 2.1% 2%
其他：
• The others section broadly includes the
0 0% components’ repair and overhaul and
2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
systems and modifications.
• 其他部分主要包括組件維修,檢修,
系統檢測及修正。

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 27

• These activities complete the MRO establish themselves in India in the near
chain and various factors such as In terms of the future. The Indian MRO value chain can
time, need, and cycles determine the be addressed under engine, airframe and
frequency of their occurrence.
addressability in the other sections, with the exception of line
• 此類工作是 MRO 業務鏈的最後組成
部分，時間,需求及使用週期等諸多
Indian landscape, maintenance which is predominantly
carried out by the airlines. The existing
因素決定此類工作的頻率。 the market is valued at availability of manpower will aid the
• OEM specifics and guidelines play a development process and if the policies
crucial role. close to USD 500 million and bureaucracy structure are addressed,
• OEM 的說明及指引發揮重要作用。 then we can expect India to be a bubbling
and this figure is expected market not just for MROs but also for
Market Value
市場價值
to reach a value of USD MRO related manufacturing. India has the
potential to address the entire value chain
In terms of the addressability in the 1068 million by the of the MRO and in turn generate close to

year 2015
Indian landscape, the market is valued at 6,000,000 jobs over a period of 10 years.
close to USD 500 million and this figure 隨著印度 MRO 市場的需求啟動，需要2
is expected to reach a value of USD 1068 －3個一流服務企業為印度飛機提供保養服
million by the year 2015. This figure is the 務。在未來4－5年內，印度民航飛機的結構
total addressable revenue opportunity that 將催生大量商機，如果相關企業能在不久的
is pertinent to the Indian fleet. Countries 將來進駐印度市場，定能把握該絕佳機遇。
that currently service the Indian fleet are 印度 MRO 市場的價值鏈包括引擎,機身及其
the United Arab Emirates, the United 他部分，線路保養屬例外情況，因為該工作
Kingdom, Singapore, Malaysia, Finland, 主要由航空公司自身完成。印度人力資源豐
and others when it comes to the heavier/ 富的優勢有助於 MRO 市場的發展，如果政
higher checks. Recently, even Sri Lanka 府能推出相關政策及管理模式，我們預計，
has been tapping the opportunity and some 印度不僅能實現 MRO 市場的繁榮，還可實
Indian aircraft fly to the island nation. The 現 MRO 相關製造業的蓬勃發展。印度有潛
major reasons for the Indian fleet to fly 力涵蓋 MRO 的全部價值鏈，在未來10年內
outside bearing the additional costs are: 將催生近 6,000,000 個工作崗位。
就印度市場的前景而言，市場價值接近5 The airlines are involved in running
億美元，預計該數字將於2015年達到10.68 their businesses efficiently and every cost
億美元。該數字是參照印度市場飛機規模的 in terms of the investment, geographic saving opportunity will be appreciated
合計可估算收入機會。目前為印度飛機提供 identification and adequate manpower by them. The setting up of MROs will
重大檢修服務的國家包括阿聯酋,英國,新加 training. The manpower exists but what is be more than a boon to the airlines in
坡,馬來西亞,芬蘭及其他國家。近期，斯裏 needed is the skill impartation or rather India and also for some of the regional
蘭開亦開始把握該領域的業務機會，吸引部 the transformation. Working on aircraft carriers slated to kick start operations
分印度飛機前往。印度飛機承擔額外成本飛 maintenance needs not only the necessary very soon. In the wake of the economic
赴海外完成保養的主要原因包括： skills but an appreciation of the depth development, the country has all the more
• Lack of third-party MROs/airlines that involved in the demands of quality and reason to encourage and support MROs
have all the capabilities to satisfy the one- standards. and encourage the internal growth of
stop-shop visit. 儘管進入印度 MRO 市場機會難得，但在 industries related to MRO.
• 國內缺乏實力雄厚的第三方 MRO 服 投資,選址及理想的人力培訓方面，亦存在 航空公司目前尤其重視業務效率，絕不
務機構，無法提供一站式全面服務。 挑戰。印度雖然人力豐富，但必須深度培 放過任何節省成本的機會。開展 MRO 業務
• Lack of necessary approvals and 訓專業人才，使其掌握大量專業技能。對 將使印度航空公司獲益匪淺，亦能幫助舉
certificates that mandate the aircraft 於參與飛機保養工作的人員而言，不僅要 步維艱的地區航空公司快速恢復營運。在
maintenance -- FAA, EASA, and 具備專業能力，還應具備追求卓越品質及 經濟出現好轉的形勢下，印度完全有理由
DGCA. 標準的精神。 鼓勵並扶植 MRO 市場，同時鼓勵 MRO 相
• 缺乏監管飛機保養的必要核准及認 關行業的內部增長。|AT|
證－FAA,EASA 及 DGCA。 Conclusion
• Absence of infrastructure set-ups and 總結 This article was authored by: Chethan
hangar facilities meeting world-class As the Indian MRO market unfurls, Kambi, Senior Research Analyst, South
standards. there is a need for the existence of 2-3 very Asia and Middle East Aerospace & Defense
• 沒有能達到世界級標準的基礎設施 good players to service the Indian fleet. Practice, Frost & Sullivan.
及機庫設施。 The fleet dynamics will pose good business 本文作者：Chethan Kambi，Frost &
The opportunity to delve into the opportunities in the next 4-5 years and Sullivan 南亞及中東航空及國防業務部高
Indian MRO market poses challenges this can be tapped if companies were to 級研究分析師。

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

28 Economy

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ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

Malaysia Begins a
New Decade
新十年　新大馬
For Asian Tigers 0110
供：亞洲虎0110
As the last smoke from the
New Year’s Eve fireworks display over
Kuala Lumpur’s Petronas Twin Towers
vaporizes, Malaysia prepares to face the
new decade. It passed the first decade of
the millennium in a reasonably sound
position having escaped most of the
impacts of the 2008 global economic
meltdown.
除夕夜的最後一縷煙花飄散在吉隆坡雙
子塔上空，馬來西亞揭開了新十年的序
幕。僥倖躲過2008年全球衰退的正面衝
擊，新世紀的頭十年，大馬平安度過。
Many economic issues made the
headlines in 2009 and no doubt, will
still be discussed in 2010. These range
Economy
作者/by
David Bowden
from liberalization of the economy, the
transformation of the country to a high-
income nation, to a possible Goods and
Services Tax (GST), the possibility of a
third economic stimulus package, and the
potential growth in GDP in 2010.
2009年許多經濟議題引發熱議，2010年
無疑還要爭論下去，比如經濟自由化,國家
富強,商品及服務稅（GST）,第三次刺激方
案，還有2010年的經濟增長。
Many see 2010 as a transition year
in which the Malaysian economy
recovers while the government lays the
foundations to facilitate the country’s
transformation into a high-income
economy.
大家都把2010年視為一個過渡期，一方
面等待經濟復甦，另一方面讓政府打好基
礎，推動國家向高收入經濟體邁進。
29
Third Time Lucky
再一,再二…再三？
The Malaysian Institute of Economic
Research (MIER) Executive Director
Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff
claims that Malaysian businesses may
need to keep a close eye on the health
of the US economy during 2010. He
suggests that, should the US economy
experience a double dip recession, the
Malaysian Government may need to
pump prime the economy.
馬來西亞經濟研究所（MIER）執行董事
拿督莫哈末·阿里夫博士表示，大馬企業
需密切關注2010年美國經濟的健康態勢。
他說倘若美國經濟二次探底，大馬政府或
需出手提振經濟。
Like all good arguments, there is
however another side. HSBC Singapore
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
30 Economy
As the last smoke from the New Year’s Eve fireworks display
over Kuala Lumpur’s Petronas Twin Towers vaporizes,
Malaysia prepares to face the new decade.
senior Asian economist for global
research, Robert Prior-Wandesforde was
quoted in early December as saying that
Malaysia did not need a third stimulus
package even if the US economy relapsed
into recession. He claimed that the full
effects of the previous two stimulus
packages have not yet come into effect.
Wandesforde also predicted the economy
to grow by 6.8% in 2010.
真是棋逢對手，滙豐銀行新加坡分行負
責全球研究的資深亞洲經濟學家羅伯特·
普萊爾·萬德斯福德就在12月初表示，縱
使美國重陷衰退，大馬也不需要第三次經
濟刺激。他說前兩次刺激方案的效果還未
完全展現出來，他預計2010年大馬經濟可
增長6.8%。
Growing Pains
成長的煩惱
Meanwhile, the government is
predicting the economy to grow by 5%
in 2010 although some independent
researchers think this is a little too
optimistic. Much of this will be from
domestic demand and this is confirmed
by the recent release of the HSBC
Affluent Asian Tracker, a survey
conducted by Nielsen for the HSBC
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Group. Released in early January, the
report indicated that more affluent
Malaysians say they are wealthier
compared to six months ago. Another
indicator is the sale of cars by the national
carmaker Proton almost doubled in
the second quarter of 2009. They also
report that they expect these sales to
be sustainable when the figures for the
second half are released.
政府預測2010年經濟增長5%，不過有獨
立研究人士認為這未免過於樂觀。增長的
動力主要來自內需，最近滙豐銀行發表的
「亞洲富豪跟蹤報告」也證實了這一點。
在這份滙豐銀行委託尼爾森所作並於1月
初發表的報告中，有更多的馬來西亞富豪
說他們比六個月之前更加富有。還有一個
跡象是馬來西亞的國營汽車製造商普騰，
在2009年第二季度的銷量幾乎翻倍。該公
司表示，預計下半年還會保持旺盛的銷售
勢頭。
However, the MIER expects the
economy to only grow by 3.7% in 2010
(coming from what it suggests was -3%
in 2009) but would grow to 5% in 2011.
They have suggested for the government
to attain 5% in 2010 there will be a cost
as it will mean a bigger budget deficit and
a larger national debt.
然而，馬經濟研究所卻預計2010年的經
濟增長率僅為3.7%（估計2009年有3%的負增
長），2011年會增至5%。該機構稱，政府要
想使2010年的增長率達到5%，就意味著更多
的預算赤字和更重的國家債務，得不償失。
Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff
Meanwhile, the Asian Development
Bank (ADB) predicted in mid
December a growth rate of 4.5% for
2010. The Manila-based financial
organization reported -5.1% contraction
in the first half of 2009 and -1.2% in
the third quarter. This resulted from
a decrease in external demand for its
exports which affected the whole region
but most significantly in Malaysia and
Thailand. Malaysia’s 4.5% for 2010
compares to the ADB’s predictions
of Vietnam (6.5%), Indonesia (5.4%),
Singapore (4.5%), Philippines (3.3%),
and Brunei (2.3%) in 2010. These are
also to be considered with the bank’s
predictions of 8.9% for China and
India of 7%. The ADB claimed that the
situation was changing rapidly and that
prospects for greater growth were better
now than they were in September 2009
when the last study was conducted.
亞洲開發銀行（下稱「亞開行」）於12
月中旬預測2010年增長率為4.5%。這間總
部位於馬尼拉的金融機構報告稱，2009年
上半年馬經濟萎縮5.1%，第三季度下降
1.2%，主要是出口遭遇外需下滑所致，整
個地區都受波及，尤以馬來西亞和泰國最
嚴重。除了馬來西亞的4.5%，亞開行還預
測 2010年越南經濟增長率為6.5%,印尼
5.4%,新加坡4.5%,菲律賓3.3%,文萊2.3%
，而中國和印度則分別有8.9%和7%。亞開
行表示，形勢變化飛快，現在看來經濟復
甦的前景比2009年9月進行上一次調查時
好得多。
A senior economist with the World
Bank, Philip Schellenkens was reported
 Economy 31

in mid December as suggesting the

Malaysian economy could return to 6%
annual growth by 2012. The bank predicts
the economy to grow by 4.1% in 2010.
據報道，世界銀行資深經濟學家菲利
普·紹爾肯斯曾在12月中旬預測，到2012
年大馬經濟有望恢復6%的年度增長率。該
行預測2010年經濟增長4.1%。

To Tax or Not to Tax

徵稅之爭
With a suggestion that not many
Malaysians actually pay tax, there is talk
of a GST being introduced in 2011.
Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri
Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah has entered
the debate by reminding Malaysians that
some 143 other countries have a GST
and that Malaysia, along with Brunei
and Myanmar are the only countries
in the region that don’t have a GST. If
introduced it would possibly be at the
rate of 4% and would replace the current
sales and service tax of 5-10% and would
increase the effectiveness of Malaysia’s
revenue collection. The tax would cover
more items than the current tax and it
would therefore be harder for consumers
to avoid and thus force more to make a
higher contribution to the tax coffers.
據說真正照章納稅的大馬百姓其實不
多，於是2011年將要開徵商品及服務稅的
傳聞甚囂塵上。第二財政部長拿督阿末胡
斯尼加入到這場辯論，他提醒民眾說，現
在世界上約有143個國家設有商品及服務
稅，在本地區，只剩下馬來西亞,文萊及緬
甸尚無此稅。如果開徵的話，稅率可能為
4%，它將取代現行稅率為5-10%的銷售及服
務稅，可提高大馬的徵稅效率。這個稅項
的覆蓋範圍比當前稅項更廣，所以消費者
很難有避稅的機會，這樣就把更多人納入
到徵稅之列，擴大了稅收來源。
Market Liberalization
市場自由化
Another important economic event in
2009 was the liberalization of Malaysia’s
economic playing field but it will take
some time for these measures to take
effect. Important issues identified by the
World Bank include the need to ease
investment rules to attract more foreign
investment. Private investment into
Malaysia has dropped probably because
the market saw more opportunities
elsewhere in the turbulent times after
The government’s 2009/2010 Economic
Report estimates that private investment contracted by
some 20% in 2009; one of the largest drops in recent time.
the global economic crisis started in
2008.
2009年大馬經濟的另一件大事是市場自
由化，不過相關措施仍需時日才能奏效。
世界銀行指出一個重要問題是必須放鬆投
資管制，才能吸引更多外資。流入大馬的
私人投資出現下滑，可能就是因為2008年
全球經濟危機的動盪時期，別處市場的機
遇比大馬更多。
The government’s 2009/2010
Economic Report estimates that private
investment contracted by some 20% in
2009, one of the largest drops in recent
time. The decline started with the Asian
economic meltdown in 1997/98 and
really hasn’t gained much momentum
since. By its own admission, the
government only sees a 3.4% growth in
private investment in 2010.
政府的2009/2010經濟報告估計，2009
年私人投資萎縮約20%，為近年來最大跌
幅。其實下跌之勢始於1997-1998年的亞
洲經濟危機，從那以後就沒真正好轉過。
政府也承認，2010年私人投資能增3.4%就
算不錯。
The World Bank’s Philip Schellenken
also claims that in order to boost future
development, there needs to be a growth
in skilled domestic workers. Coupled
with this, according to Schellenken is the
need for more Malaysian companies to
harness technological innovation.
世界銀行的菲利普·紹爾肯斯表示，為
今後的發展著想，大馬需要培養熟練的本
國工人，與此同時大馬公司也要善用技術
創新。
No one admits the road to recovery
is going to be easy, but many express
cautious optimism.
看來復甦道路絕非坦途，但是謹慎樂觀
者也不在少數。|AT|

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

32 Economy

作者/by Emilio T. Antonio, Jr., Ph. D.

The year 2010 serves as another a.2010 年 1 月，六個創始成員國之間實 Most of these will come into force by
milestone for the ASEAN in the light of 現零關稅，標誌著東盟自由貿易區走向成熟。 2010 for the ASEAN-6.
the following developments: b. ASEAN has likewise emerged as a b. 東盟與多個相鄰經濟體簽署地區合作
hub through which regional agreements 協議，東盟日趨成為地區經濟中樞。 各項
的確，長時間以來，已通過東盟自由貿易 are being forged between ASEAN as 合作協議如下 ：東盟 + 韓國（2006 年商品
區和東盟自由貿易區是於 1992 年制定。 a group and a number of neighboring 貿易協議，2007 年服務協議，2009 年投資
然而，儘管這個過程是緩慢的，很清楚， economies. This is clear from the 協議）, 東盟自由貿易區 + 新西蘭及澳洲
具體，已採取步驟實現其目標消除關稅壁 following agreements: ASEAN+Korea （2009 年簽署 AANZFTA 協議）, 東盟與日本
壘，成員國之間。在最近幾年，該集團已 (Trade in Goods in 2006, 2007 for 全面經濟合作協議（2008 年）, 東盟自由貿
敲定議定書的修正於 在下列合作進展的 services, and 2009 for Investments1), 易區 + 中國（2004 年簽署，2009 年簽署投
影響下，2010 年將成為東盟發展歷史上的 AFTA+New Zealand and Australia 資協議）及東盟 + 印度（2009 年簽署商品
又一里程碑 (AANZFTA signed in 2009), the 貿易協議）。多數協議將於 2010 年在東盟
a. January 2010 marks another step ASEAN Japan Comprehensive Econ 六國生效。
towards a ‘full-fledged’ free trade zone Partnership (2008), AFTA+China True, a long period has passed since
for the ASEAN as tariffs are brought (signed in 2004 and 2009 for the ASEAN FTA or AFTA was insti-
down to zero among the six founding investments), and ASEAN+India tuted in 1992. Nevertheless, while the
members of the region. (agreement in Goods signed in 2009). process has been slow, it is clear that

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 33

concrete steps have been taken towards

its goal of eliminating tariff barriers
among member countries. In the more
recent years, the group has hammered
out Protocol Amendments in 2000 and
2003, and the ASEAN Trade in Goods
Agreement (ATIGA) in 2009. By 2010
the AFTA is virtually in place, at least
for the ASEAN-6.
東盟自由貿易區建立於 1992 年，已走
過相當長的發展歷程。儘管發展過程步履
緩慢，但成員國已邁出堅實步伐，致力於
實現消除關稅壁壘的目標。近年來，該組
織於 2000 年及 2003 年簽訂修改協議，並
於 2009 年簽訂東盟商品貿易協議。進入
2010 年，東盟自由貿易區至少在東盟六國
之間已經形成。
These milestones, therefore, serve as
reminders that although the process
towards achieving its goal of dismantling
trade barriers has been slow, the ASE-
AN is definitely getting closer towards
greater regional cooperation and com-
mon prosperity. The ultimate objective
is to create a single production base and
market, which is indeed sizable. It has a
combined GDP of $1.5 trillion and
4.4 percent growth in 20082. It is
likewise gaining an important place
in the global economy as a regional
platform for production. With the
rapid growth of its biggest neighbor,
China, it is expected that it would
eventually rely on the ASEAN for
some of its needs, most notably in
food production.
這些具有里程碑意義的進展表明，
儘管實現消除關稅壁壘的過程步履
緩慢，但東盟成員國的確在積極合
作，努力實現更好的地區合作及共同
繁榮。該組織的最終目標是建立單一
生產基地及市場，其規模不容小覷。
2008 年，東盟成員國綜合 GDP 高達
1.5 萬億美元，增幅達 4.4％。作為
地區生產平台，東盟在全球經濟中已
佔據舉足輕重的地位。中國是東盟最
大的鄰國，經濟保持高速增長，預計
1 Also marks inclusion of Thailand which has previously
opted out of the agreement.
1 亦
 包括泰國，但泰國已退出該協議。
2 GDP in current prices, (IMF World Economic Outlook
Database 2009 and the ASEAN Secretariat)
2 現
 價GDP （2009年國際貨幣基金組織全球經濟展望數
據庫及東盟秘書處）
the ASEAN is definitely getting closer towards greater
regional cooperation and common prosperity.
The ultimate objective is to create a single
production base and market, which is indeed
sizable.
中國最終將依賴東盟滿足部分自身需求，
尤其是糧食生產。
Benefits and Costs
收益及成本
Will these efforts yield the expected
benefits to member-countries?
Definitely, yes. Will these outweigh the
costs? It depends. For sure, with more
of these regional trade agreements in
place more barriers to trade have been
dismantled and the magnitudes of both
the benefits and the costs have expanded.
Whether the gains will more than
offset the losses will now depend on
how these are managed -- a matter on
which a lot of ink has been spilled and
which rightly deserves more in-depth
and subsequently lengthier discussions.
While the debate on this issue still
continues, some lessons and reminders
may already be distilled.
上述各項努力能否使成員國得到預期收
益？答案無疑是肯定的。收益能否超過成
本？這要視具體情況而定。可以肯定的是，
隨著更多地區貿易協定的簽署，將消除更
多貿易壁壘，收益及成本均同時擴大。現時，
收益能否超出成本須由合作關係的管理方
式決定，各國之間已為此簽署大量協議，
且需要進行更深入且更漫長的磋商。儘管
針對該問題的爭論仍在繼續，我們已經能
總結出部分經驗教訓。
Economists consider trade barri-
ers, in general, to reduce efficiency and
thereby result in welfare losses for the
trading parties concerned where
markets work (i.e. where there are no
market failures). To them, the ideal
world will largely be made up by a
world free of tariff barriers. Bringing
down barriers selectively (e.g. within
regions as most FTAs of today do),
however, brings about some con-
cerns. Foremost, and probably the
most notorious is the concern that
these ‘second-best’ arrangements of
regional trade liberalization may be
taken as a step back or away from
the ultimate goal of global free trade.
This has been given the name ‘spa-
ghetti bowl effect’.
經濟學家普遍認為，貿易壁壘會降低
效率，會導致正常市場（即不存在市
場失效）的交易各方福利受損。經濟
學家認為，沒有關稅壁壘的市場才是
最理想的市場。不過，有選擇的消除
關稅壁壘（例如當今多數自由貿易區
的做法）會帶來隱憂。最重要或者說最引
人關注的憂慮即，這些地區貿易自由化的
「次佳」協議可能帶來倒退，使全球自由貿
易的最終目標更為遙遠。這種現象被稱為
「意大利麵碗效應」。
One example which serves to high-
light this issue is the complication in
the mechanism needed to make regional

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

34 Economy
FTAs operational.3 This is usually done
through the enforcement of Rules of
Origin (ROO) guidelines which serve to
identify which items should be charged at
certain tariff rates. Obviously, this imposes
time and transactions costs. Certainly, the
problem would not exist in a more global
(or multilateral) liberalization. In regional
FTAs, however, there would be a need for
harmonization of standards and procedures
and the use of a system in order to reduce
transaction costs and processing time.
說明該問題的一個實例即，要想實現可
運作的地區自由貿易區，必須制定複雜的
運作機制。3 現有自由貿易區通常透過執
行原產地規則（ROO）指引實現該目的，參
照該規則確定哪些商品應徵收特定關稅。
顯然，這種做法會帶來時間及交易成本。
當然，對於更加全球化（或多邊）自由化
市場，這種問題將不復存在。不過對於地
區自由貿易區，為減少交易成本及處理時
間，還需要制定合理的標準及流程，且有
必要採用一套合理的制度。
3 More can be found in: Medalla, E. and J. Balboa, 2009.
“ASEAN Rules of Origin: Lessons and Recommendations
for Best Practice.” ERIA Discussion Paper Series 2009-17.
Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
3 如
 需了解更多內容，可查閱： Medalla, E. 及
J. Balboa，2009年。「東盟原產地規則：最佳實
踐方法的經驗及建議（ASEAN Rules of Origin:
Lessons and Recommendations for Best Practice）
」，ERIA 研討論文系列2009-17。菲律賓發展研
究院（Philippine Institute for Development
Studies）。
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Numerous studies have sought to
quantify these costs and benefits. The
general conclusions: there are welfare
gains (where some contend that more-
developed and ‘bigger’ economies take a
greater share of the gains) and these are
not necessarily a step away from multi-
lateral liberalization. Furthermore, big-
ger (more partners) and more (greater
scope of liberalization i.e. including or
partially liberalizing agriculture) tends
to be better.
The general
conclusions: there
are welfare gains (where
some contend that more-
developed and ‘bigger’
economies take a greater
share of the gains) and
these are not necessarily
a step away from
multilateral liberalization.
為量化分析相關成本及收益，學者們曾
進行諸多研究。一般結論為 ：這些是福利
收益（部分學者認為，更為發達且「規模
更大」的經濟體得到的收益更多），且這些
措施並非使經濟遠離多邊自由化。此外，
自由貿易區越大（更多合作夥伴）越多（自
由化範圍更廣，即，包括或部分包括農業
自由化）則效果越好。
Some thoughts
若干思考
Given these, what does this trend
of more and more regional (as against
multilateral or global) trade agreements
hold for member-countries? Certainly
our negotiators and trade officials have
learned much over the years. Expect,
therefore, future negotiations to go
smoother and yield more advantages
for the region. In particular, succeeding
agreements have been increasingly
patterned after previous ones in terms
of classifications and procedures which
facilitate processing and classifications
and puts more structure into the
“spaghetti bowl”.
有鑒於此，地區（對應多邊或全球）貿
易協定越來越多的趨勢對成員國意味著什
麼？多年來，談判代表及貿易官員一定從
中學到諸多經驗。因此，未來的談判很可
能更為順利，且將為地區帶來更多收益。
會有越來越多的後續協議在分級及流程方
面仿效以往的協議，從而進一步推動處理
及分級工作，為「意大利麵碗」帶來更豐
富的內容。
Do we have more to bargain with for
each succeeding agreement we come
into? We don’t really know but the odds
are in our favour given that we would be
a larger trading bloc (and hoping that
we do realize some immediate economic
gains as well).
在簽訂後續協議的過程中，我們是否會
有更多討價還價的空間？具體情況不得而
知，但鑒於我們是規模較大的貿易體，獲
得有利地位的可能性較高（希望我們亦能
實現部分眼前的經濟收益）。
Are we coming closer to the first-best
of a multilateral/unilateral free trade
scenario? This is even harder to answer.
Some economists would argue that we
are and would suggest that indeed the
AFTA is a building bloc for multilateral
free trade for the region. Nevertheless,
we can go back to our answer in the first
question – that is we have learned a lot
 Economy 35

from previous negotiation and imple-

mentation efforts.
我們是否正在接近成為一流多邊／單邊
自由貿易區的目標？這個問題甚至更難回
答。部分經濟學家認為我們正在縮短與目
標的距離，且認為東盟自由貿易區確實是
本地區的多邊自由貿易區。儘管如此，我
們還是要重新回答第一個問題，即我們已
經透過以往的談判及執行工作學到諸多寶
貴經驗。
How does this affect our other goals?
For one, it has led to greater cooperation
in other areas within the ASEAN. This
in turn should lead to better and more
policy coordination in response to global
and domestic shocks.
這對我們實現其他目標有何影響？舉例
而言，這有助於東盟其他地區之間建立更
好的合作，進而有助於實現更多更好的政 我們必須深入思考自由貿易區應該或能 inclusive 2) more comprehensive and 3)
策協調，以應對全球及國內經濟衝擊。 夠提供哪些收益，對比我們能完成的工作 in sync with other FTAs in force.
及預期收益。我們應時刻牢記，在實現自 前路又在何方呢？我們應繼續推動多邊貿
Where are we and where are we going? 由貿易區的過程中，我們必須貫徹多邊貿 易磋商，鑒於該工作進展緩慢，最終目標還
我們身處何地？路在何方？ 易流程，適應成員國的個別貿易自由化計 有待後人實現，我們應繼續推動地區自由貿
We must sift through what these 劃。我們是否應擔憂低利用率的問題？如 易區的發展，使其具備以下優勢 ：1) 更具
FTAs should or can be expected to de- 果問題的原因在於多邊利用率十分接近或 包容性 ；2) 更全面 ；及 3) 與其他自由貿
liver against what we can and do expect 等同於東盟利用率，則不必擔憂。 易區協同配合。
from them. It is important to keep in After almost two decades of the AFTA, On a related note we can also take in
mind that these FTAs are sought while what have we gained? Clearly, a lot of a few lessons about regional cooperation
continually working with a stalled multi- experience. The economic gains are hard from the EU response to the crisis.
lateral process and continuing individual to measure especially in light of the 透過歐盟為應對危機開展的地區合作，
trade liberalization schemes by member- unending series of crises besetting the 我們能從中學到不少相關經驗。
countries. Should we be worried about region (whether man-made, economic • The impact of the financial crisis is ex-
low utilization rates? Not really, if the or political, or natural). Nevertheless the pectedly different when comparing the
reason is because multilateral (MFN) figures tell us that Intra-ASEAN trade EU and the ASEAN. The regions do
rates are quite close or the same as has grown since the mid-1990s1 at a play different roles in the global econo-
ASEAN ones. time when member-countries continue to my. A decline in trade would be the is-
pursue their individual trade liberalization sue for the ASEAN member-countries
schemes. and to a lesser extent, currency… this
在東盟自由貿易區走過近二十年歷程之 implies though that though the initial
Nevertheless the figures 後，我們得到哪些收益？顯然，我們得到 impact may be behind us, the ASEAN
has more to worry about the long term
tell us that Intra-
大量寶貴經驗。經濟收益難以衡量，在本
地區危機不斷的情況下尤其如此（無論人 effect of the crisis on global trends of

ASEAN trade has 為 , 經濟 , 政治還是自然危機）。不過，統

計數據表明，自 20 世紀 90 年代以來 4，東
consumption and trade growth.
• 對比歐盟及東盟，金融危機帶來的衝擊
grown since the 盟成員國之間的貿易額持續增長，與此同
時，各成員國一直致力於執行各自的貿易
並不相同。東盟地區在全球經濟中的確
發揮與眾不同的作用。東盟成員國普遍
mid-1990s at a time 自由化計劃。
Where do we go from here? We should
面臨貿易額下降的問題，少數國家還面
臨貨幣問題，這表明，儘管金融危機的
when member-countries continue to push for multilateral trade 早期衝擊已經結束，但東盟必須面對金
talks but given the slowness this is ex- 融危機給全球消費及貿易增長帶來的長
continue to pursue pected to entail we can continue to work 期影響。
towards regional FTAs which are 1) more • ASEAN economies have also proven
their individual trade to be more resilient and flexible than
liberalization schemes. 4 ASEAN Secretariat Statistics
developed economies.
• 事實表明，較之發達經濟體，東盟經濟
4 東盟秘書處統計資料 更具彈性及靈活性。|AT|

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

36 In this year 2010 ‘The year of the Tiger’ in the Chinese Lunar Calendar, Asian Tigers
magazine sent one of its Chinese photojournalists to the home of the Siberian Tiger
to produce this special New Year photographic spectacular for our readers.

老虎故乡 虎虎生气

Hometown
of the Tiger Text & Photos: Wang Yuanchang
王远昌 文/图

Tiger, the king of the beasts;

The Siberian tiger is “king of the kings”,
and known for its strong build and
ferocity.
虎被称为百兽之王，东北虎因体大威猛又
被称为王中之王。
At the foot of Mt. Hufeng of China
Mt. Wan Dashan, the birth hometown
of Siberian tigers, you will find the
world’s biggest Siberian tiger Breeding
Center. There are over 800 wild and
fierce Siberian tigers living there, by
the mountain and cold running waters.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 37

During the summer there is an expanse

of green, at winter time it becomes snow-
white and very cold. A great surprise to
me was that in the past 23 years, from
only 8 tiger cubs, grew a population of
800, what’s more, in the daytime and at
night, deep in the mountain and forest,
a group of female ‘tiger raisers’ stay with
these fierce giant cats. They are tender
but brave to be with these tigers and love
them like their own babies.
东北虎的故乡｜中国完达山脉虎峰
山脚下，辟有世界最大的东北虎野化
繁育基地，约有800余只威风凛凛,重
拾野性的东北虎。这里依山傍水，夏
季林森草茂,冬季冰清雪洁。令人惊奇
的是，仅仅23年时间，由最初的8只繁 They are tender but brave to be with these tigers and
育壮大如此规模的种群。而在这密林
深处与猛虎日夜相伴的竟是几代温柔 love them like their own babies
漂亮的女性为主的育虎团队。
On the eve of the Year of the Tiger, 虎年前夕，我带着成套的摄影器材 tigers, a huge hunting cat is inevitable.
with a set of photographic equipment, I 再次来到这儿。每年12月至翌年的2月 Our car had to travel fast, or it will be
went there yet again. Each year, from Dec 是东北虎喜结连理的旺季，茫茫雪野 tackled or stopped off by the tigers.
to Feb is the mating peak time, in the 里可见耳鬓厮磨的虎情侣。每年第二 With no food left, we took our shots
wild snow-covered forest, tiger couples 季是东北虎生产旺季，曾创下一胎成 and left…
keep ‘skin to skin’ can always seen. Every 活6只的世界纪录，成功优化交配,助 When leaving, we shook the hands
second season is the time to give birth. 产,母狗代哺等都是她们这些虎妈妈创 of those brave ladies; I felt that
One time a record breaking 6 new-born 下的世界养虎之最。 their hands were rough. Had I not I
tiger cubs came in one farrow. Striving to take a close shot of these experienced this myself, I would never
have believed that these
gentle beauties could be
such fierce beasts.
我们乘坐的工作车
必须行使很快，不能
停顿，否则将被猛虎
拦劫；刚停稳就会有
猛虎上来使劲嗑咬车
胎，锋利强劲的牙齿
咬破轮胎撒气后，群
虎上来后果可怕。一
只2岁成年雄虎竟然横
卧车前，若不“留下买
路钱”（投下一块鲜牛
肉）绝不放行。有的
大王会一跃跳上车棚
顶上同乘便车；趾高
气扬,虎虎生气的尊容
令人又惊又喜。
As we departed you could here a
great roar from the tigers. Maybe they
were saying goodbye…
结束拍摄,握手道别，养虎女郎那
粗糙手掌与温柔的表情形成强烈反
差，远山中又传来了声声虎啸。 |AT|

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

38
In 1998, Australia had a mere 6
mega-watt (MW ) installed capacity of
wind power. Ten years later (by the end
of 2008), that figure had climbed to
1.3 giga-watt (GW ). The pace of new
wind farm developments continues to
gather momentum. In the six months
to October 2009, three out of the seven
new electricity generation projects
completed in Australia were wind-
powered.
1998年澳洲的風電裝機容量僅有6兆瓦
(MW)，十年後（2008年末）已猛增到1.3千
兆瓦(GW)。風電場建設如火如荼，2009年
10月之前的六個月，全國竣工新發電項目
七個，其中有三個是風力發電。
Moving forward, of the nine renewable
electricity generation projects, listed by
the Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics (ABARE) in
October 2009, at an advanced stage of
development, eight were wind-powered.
These eight projects are expected to be
operational in 2011 and will account
for 84 percent of new renewable energy
capacity addition in the country.
2009年10月澳洲農業與資源經濟局
(ABARE)列出九個處於高級發展階段的可再
生發電項目，其中風力發電佔了八個。這
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Economy
八個項目將於2011年投產，屆時將佔全國
新增可再生能源裝機容量的84%。
Looking even further ahead, of
the total number of projects in
October 2009 at a less advanced
stage (undergoing feasibility or pre-
feasibility studies, or without a definite
development decision), 71 of the 80
renewable energy projects are wind-
powered. Admittedly, not all of these
will eventually become operational
projects, but the momentum is clearly
with the wind sector.
而在2009年10月公佈的所有處於非高級
階段（正在進行可行性研究或者預可行性
研究，或者尚未決定開發）的80個可再生
能源項目中，有71個同樣是風力發電。誠
然，這些項目未必都能化為現實，但風力
發電的勢頭不容置疑。
Underpinning most renewable energy
project investments is the Australian
Government’s expanded Renewable
Energy Target (RET) scheme of
August 2009 that has a renewable
energy target of 45,000 gigawatt-
hours (Gwh) – or 20 percent of total
requirement – by 2020. Through this
framework, wholesale purchasers
of electricity are legally obliged to
contribute toward the generation of
作者/By Ivan Fernandez
additional renewable electricity through
the purchase of Renewable Energy
Certificates (RECs) which are tradable.
2009年8月澳洲政府出台擴大後的可再生
能源目標(RET)計劃，決心在2020年之前，
實現45,000千兆瓦時(Gwh)的可再生能源目
標，滿足總需求量的20%。此舉給絕大多數
的可再生能源項目投資奠定基礎。在此框
架下，批量購電的用戶須承擔法定義務，
通過購買可交易的「可再生能源證書」
(REC)為可再生能源發電出資。
The competitive advantage for wind
rests in its relative cost competitiveness
(at utility-scale capacities) versus other
mature technologies such as solar. In
addition, Australia has excellent wind
resources, with higher average wind
speeds than even some of the much larger
wind-powered markets globally.
與其他成熟技術如太陽能相比，風能的
優勢在於成本低廉（假如發電量能達到公
用事業級）。澳洲有豐富的風力資源，其
平均風速甚至高過一些風力發電規模大得
多的國家。
Unlike the small, pilot-scale projects of
the past, there is a marked trend toward
larger capacities per wind farm. For
example, the planned Silverton Wind
Farm in New South Wales is targeting a
capacity of 1,000 MW, which will make
 Economy 39

it the largest in the country and in the
Southern hemisphere. No wonder then
that some forecasts place total installed
wind capacity at around 11 GW in 2020,
assuming complete implementation of
the expanded RET.
有別於過去的小規模試驗項目，現在風
電場的裝機容量越來越大，像新南威爾士
州籌建的Silverton風電場，目標發電量達
1,000兆瓦，它將成為澳洲乃至南半球最大
的風電場。據預測，假如擴大後的可再生
能源目標實現的話，到2020年風力發電總
裝機容量將達到11千兆瓦。
However, even with about 50 operating
wind farms in the country currently
and with many more in-progress and
upcoming wind energy projects, there
exist fundamental challenges beyond the
projects themselves. These are discussed
below:
目前國內大概有50家投入運營的風電
場，還有不少在建和即將開建的風能項
目，然而除了項目本身之外，仍存在一些
根本性的挑戰。下文就此展開討論：
Impact on the Electricity Market
對電力市場的影響
Intermittency of wind supply is
likely to become a grid challenge as
wind capacity increases (an individual
wind generator could see as much as
a 50 percent variation in output in a
five-minute electricity market dispatch
interval). Volatility in the grid – due to
increasing renewable energy generation
– means that new power plants need to
be flexible, highly efficient and able to
start and stop in very short periods of
time on a daily basis in order to cope
with grid irregularities.
隨著風力發電容量的增加，風力供電的
間歇性對電網構成挑戰（在一個為期五分
鐘的電力市場調度間隔時段內，一台風力
發電機的發電量波動幅度最高可達50%）。
因為可再生能源發電越來越多，為避免電
網波動，新的發電廠需要靈活高效，日常
運營中能在極短時間內開機和停機，以應
對電網異常。
To help manage this issue better, the
Australian Wind Energy Forecasting
System (AWEFS) was implemented in
November 2008 (phase 1) and released
for the national electricity market
(NEM) (the NEM is the wholesale pool
where electricity demand is matched to
generator supply in real time through
a central dispatch for NSW, Victoria,
Queensland, ACT, South Australia
and Tasmania). This is a centralized
system that will provide predictions
of wind energy generation compatible
with the management systems of the
NEM operator, the Australian Energy
Market Operator (AEMO). Using
weather forecasts from meteorological
bureaux and operational data from wind
energy generators (such as site wind
speed and direction, turbine availability
and output), the AWEFS is producing
forecasts of expected wind energy
generation (for all NEM wind farms (>=
30MW ) in the dispatch).
為更好地處理這一問題，2008年11月「
澳洲風能預測系統」(AWEFS) （第一階
段）投入全國電力市場(NEM)運營（NEM相
當於一個電力批發集散地，通過覆蓋新南
威爾士州,維多利亞州,昆士蘭州,堪培拉,
南澳大利亞州,塔斯馬尼亞州的中央調度，
把電力供應與需求實時匹配）。這個中央
系統可提供風能發電的預測，跟NEM運營
者「澳洲能源市場運營機構」（AEMO）的
管理系統保持一致。根據氣象局的天氣預
報，以及風力發電商提供的運營數據（如
現場風速及風向,渦輪機可用性及發電量）
，AWEFS就能預測出所需的風力發電量（涵
蓋調度範圍內的所有NEM風電場(30兆瓦或
以上)）。
This forecasting system has helped
allow wind farms to become active
participants in the NEM through a new
generator classification introduced in
March 2009. The National Electricity
Amendment (Central Dispatch and
Integration of Wind and Other
Intermittent Generation):
在這個預測系統的幫助下，通過2009年3
月引入一個新的發電商分類制度，風力發
電場成為NEM的積極參與者。《國家電力法
修正案（風力及其他間歇發電的中央調度
與整合）》：
• “require new intermittent generators to
register under the new classification of
Semi-Scheduled Generator”;
•「要求新的間歇發電商在新的半計劃內發
電商類別下註冊」
• “require Semi-Scheduled Generators
to participate in the central dispatch
process, including submitting offers
and limiting their output to below a
dispatch level whenever the generation
is limited by the central dispatch
process” (required to limit output of
wind generation at times when it would
otherwise violate network capability).
•「要求半計劃內發電商加入中央調度的
過程中，包括提供報價，以及在中央調
度過程限制發電量的時候，把自身發電
量抑制到調節水平之下」（當風力發電
有可能超出電網容量時必須限制風力發
電量）
(“A generating unit which has a
nameplate rating of 30 MW or greater
or is part of a group of generating units
connected at a common connection point
with a combined nameplate rating of 30
MW or greater, must be classified as a
semi-scheduled generating unit where
the output of the generating unit is
intermittent.”) In the past, wind farms
were treated as non-scheduled i.e. dispatch
and network access priority were given to
wind farms over scheduled generators.
（「一台發電機組的銘牌額定值為30兆瓦
或更高，或者隸屬於一組發電機組，而這些
機組共用一個接點且合併銘牌額定值為30兆
瓦或更高，並且這台發電機組是間歇發電
的，則該機組將被列為半計劃內發電機組」
）。過去，風電場一直被視作非計劃內，也
就是說，跟計劃內發電商相比，風電場在調
度和電網接入上被給予更多照顧。
Australia has
excellent wind
resources, with
higher average wind
speeds than even some
of the much larger
wind-powered markets
globally.

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

40 Economy
In Western Australia, the Wholesale
Electricity Market (WEM) Rules classify
wind as “a non-scheduled generator that
cannot be scheduled because its output
level is dependent on factors beyond the
control of its operator.”
Market Mechanisms
市場機制
Significantly, the REC spot price has
witnessed substantial decline in 2009
(from over A$50 to under A$30). This
has been attributed to several factors
including a short-term oversupply of
RECs on account of public eligibility
to obtain RECs for solar hot water
system purchases and the uncertainty
regarding the nature and impact of the
Government’s proposed Carbon Pollution
Reduction Scheme.
值得注意的是，2009年可再生能源證書的
現貨價格經歷了暴跌（從50多澳元跌到30澳
元以下），原因可歸結為幾個因素，包括可
再生能源證書短期供應過剩（這與向公眾放
開資格領取可再生能源證書以購買太陽能熱
水裝置有關）,氣候變化莫測，還有政府提
出的「碳污染減排計劃」的影響。
One of the main consequences of
a weakened REC price has been the
increased difficulty for pre-construction
renewable energy projects in securing
long-term power purchase agreements
(PPAs) with electricity retailers and in
obtaining finance for capital works.
可再生能源證書價格下跌的主要後果是
增加了擬建的可再生能源項目的困難，使
其難以跟電力零售商達成長期的購電協議
（PPA），也難以為資本工程獲取融資。
It is expected that the expanded
RET target (12,500 GWh in 2010,
up from 8,100 GWh in 2009) will see
increased demand for RECs in 2010
and consequently better price levels. In
addition, to investigate the REC market
and its short and long term impacts on
new project development, the Council Of
Australian Governments (COAG) will
review the REC spot market shortly.
隨著擴大後的可再生能源目標的出台（
從2009年的8,100兆瓦時，增加到2010年
的12,500兆瓦時），2010 年可再生能源證
書的需求可望增加，其價格也有望水漲船
高。此外，為了調查可再生能源證書市場
及其對新項目開發的短期和長期影響，澳
洲政府委員會(COAG)也即將對可再生能源
證書的現貨市場展開審查。
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Technology and Standards
技術及標準
With the increase in intermittent
generation, performance demands are
expected to rise for the country’s grid
management technologies. In recognition
of this challenge, in November 2009, the
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (CSIRO) opened
a new research centre – ‘The Renewable
Energy Integration Facility’, which
aims to develop new grid management
technologies to allow better integration
of renewable energy resources into
electricity networks.
隨著間歇式發電的增長，國家電網的管
理技術也要有更好的性能。意識到這個挑
戰，2009年11月，聯邦科學與工業研究組
織(CSIRO)設立了一個新的研究中心―「可
再生能源一體化設施」，意在開發新的電
網管理技術，讓可再生能源資源更好地融
入整個電網。
In addition, with so many wind towers
dotting the landscape in proximity to
varying population densities, the need
to standardize wind farm development
is being felt. Towards this end, the
Environment Protection and Heritage
Standing Committee, comprising the
CEOs of Federal, State and Territory
environmental agencies, has released
draft ‘National Wind Farm Development
Guidelines’ for public consultation.
由於許多風機分佈在接近不同人口密度
的地帶，所以風電場的開發需要有統一標
準。為此，由來自聯邦,各州和領地的環境
部門的首長們組成的「環境和遺產保護委
員會」，發佈了「國家風力發電場開發指
引」草案，向公眾徵求意見。
To help improve network reliability in
the face of growing intermittent demand,
smart grid technology is being viewed as
a key solution to monitoring electricity
supply and managing peak demand. The
Australian Government has committed
up to A$100 million to develop the
‘Smart Grid, Smart City’ demonstration
project in partnership with industry. Also,
the Victorian Government’s Advanced
Metering Infrastructure (AMI) program
plans to rollout 2.5 million smart meters
in the state by 2013.
面對間歇性需求的增長，為了加強電網
的可靠性，智能電網技術應運而生。它是
一個監測電力供應和管理峰值需求的重
要解決方案。澳洲政府已承諾投入一億澳
元，與業界合作開發「智能電網，智能城
市」的示範項目。而維多利亞州政府也出
台「先進電錶基礎設施」計劃(AMI)，準備
在2013年之前安裝250萬台智能電錶。
Conclusion
結語
With the dubious distinction
of being the biggest emitter of
greenhouse gases per capita amongst
developed countries, Australia is
increasingly looking to wind farms to
help lead the change in the electricity-
generation-mix away from fossil
fuels and toward renewable energy.
However, apart from the focus on
the wind farm projects themselves,
a holistic and proactive approach to
managing the impact of new wind
capacity on the electricity market,
establishing supportive market
mechanisms and implementing
smart infrastructure technology and
standards will be crucial to making it
all work.
澳洲在發達國家中人均溫室氣體排放量
最大，因此飽受非議，這促使澳洲更加重
視風電場，以求在從化石燃料到可再生能
源的混合發電變革中走在前列。其實除了
關注風電場項目本身，還應該採取一套全
盤的,主動的方法來管理新增風力發電容
量給電力市場造成的影響，建立有益的市
場機制，並且大力推行智能基建技術和標
準，這樣才能把工作真正做好。|AT|
This article was authored by Ivan
Fernandez, Industry Director, Industrial
Practice, Frost & Sullivan Australia &
New Zealand
本文作者：Ivan Fernandez（Frost &
Sullivan Australia & New Zealand工業
實踐部門的工業主管）

For more than 20 years, Australia has
done little wrong in the eyes of Asia’s
emerging middle class. Asian politicians
wanted to shake hands, its business
people wanted to network, and its
parents wanted to send their children to
Australian schools and universities.
在亞洲的新興中產階級看來，二十多年
中澳洲的表現幾乎算得上完美。亞洲政治
家期望建立友好關係，商界人士想要編織
關係網絡，父母們則希望送孩子就讀澳洲
中學及大學。
Australia, friendly to America and
western Europe, and openly reaching
out to embrace its Asian “neighbours”,
basked in warmth and approbation
from points north, and reaped the
rewards.
澳洲與美國和西歐交好，與亞洲「鄰
國」言歡，沐浴在一派和睦之中，深得北
半球各國稱許，從中亦收穫頗多。
Economy 41
Not any more. more than 125,000 jobs. While Oxford
昔日不再。 and Harvard may still have been an
One of the more important industries absolute first choice, Australia generally
in Australia for several decades has been was rated the equal of any in providing a
education. From the wealthy and aspiring first-world education.
families of Hong Kong, Singapore and 教育是澳洲第三大海外盈利來源，2008
Taiwan, from the growing wealth of 年創收155億澳元，支撐逾12.5萬個工作崗
China and India, and from the new 位。儘管牛津和哈佛或許依然是絕對的首
wealth of Malaysia, Indonesia and other 選，但澳洲的教育普遍達世界一流水準，
ASEAN members, secondary school 毫不輸於前者。
and university age students flocked to
Australia.
幾十年來，教育一直是澳洲重要產業。
不論是有「亞洲小龍」之稱的香港,新加坡
和台灣，財富日益增加的中國和印度，還
是新貴不斷湧現的馬來西亞,印尼及其他東
盟成員國，望子成龍的富裕家庭紛紛將孩
子送往澳洲就讀中學及大學。
Education is Australia’s third-largest
source of overseas earnings, generating
A$15.5 billion in 2008 and supporting
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
42 Economy

他們之所以選擇在澳洲接受教育，原因
有二：一是聲譽，二是費用。學士學位費
用為每年1萬-1.65萬澳元，碩士學位為每
年1.1萬-1.85萬澳元。深造文憑費用為每
年9千至1.6萬澳元。
The big difference is not so much
the annual fee but the course structure:
most Australian degrees are three-year
programs, unlike the four years common
in the US. An Australian PhD degree can
be completed in three years, compared
with four years in the US.
每年學費上的差異並不大，主要差別在
於課程結構不同：澳洲大多數學位課程為
三年，而美國通常為四年。在澳洲，三年
即可修完博士學位，而美國則需四年。
The international students are allowed,
according to the terms of their student
visas, to work in Australia. And that work
Indian students make up the second-largest group for many thousands of them is driving
taxis. Catch a cab in Melbourne and the
after Chinese of international students undertaking chances are strong that your driver will be
an Indian doing a university course.
secondary or tertiary education in Australia. 根據學生簽證條款，海外留學生可以在
澳洲打工。有成千上萬的學生選擇開的士
Not any more. 度增長（2004年為3萬人，2009年為9.7萬 賺取學費。當你在墨爾本打的時，司機很
昔日不再。 人）。今年，墨爾本和阿德萊德的印度留 有可能是正就讀某大學的印度留學生。
Australia was seen to have all the 學生分別達4.5萬人和3.2萬人，是印度學 Driving taxis is a fraught business at
advantages of the US, the UK and 生人數最多的澳洲城市。 the best of times, but a series of incidents
Canada, but it was closer, both in miles They come to Australia because in Melbourne recently have resulted in
and time zone, it was trying hard to of reputation and because of cost. A mass protests, mass recriminations and
identify itself more with Asia, and it Bachelors degree costs A$10,000-16,500 mass indigation on the front pages of
was a multicultural country proud of its a year and a Masters degree A$11,000- newspapers across India.
record of tolerance and acceptance. 18,500 a year. A graduate diploma costs 在情況不佳的時候，駕駛的士充滿危
人們認為，澳洲具備美國,英國和加拿 A$9,000-16,000 a year. 險。墨爾本近期發生一連串事件，令印度
大的一切優勢，同時就里程和時區而言距 全國上下群情激奮，各地報紙刊登頭版文
離更近，而且澳洲極力標榜自己的亞洲身 章，表示抗議，宣洩憤怒。
份，宣稱擁有多元文化，以兼容並包的優 The incidents have involved violent
良傳統為豪。 attacks against Indian students. Random
Not any more. And especially not as far violence will happen in any big city, but
as India is concerned. there was a growing sense of concern
昔日不再。對於印度留學生而言尤其 that, as international student numbers
如此。 grew, they became an increasingly obvious
Indian students make up the and vulnerbale target.
second-largest group after Chinese 在這些事件中，印度
of international students undertaking 留學生遭到暴力襲擊。
secondary or tertiary education in 隨機性的暴力事件在任
Australia, and the numbers have been 何城市都可能發生，但讓
growing at almost 40 per cent a year 人日益擔憂的是，隨著海
(there were 30,000 in 2004, and 97,000 外留學生人數不斷增多，
in 2009). Melbourne with 45,000 this 留學生已成為暴力襲擊的
year, and Adelaide, with 32,000, are the 明顯目標。
dominant providers. Then, in April
在澳洲接受中學或高等教育的海外留學 2008, matters
生中，印度留學生人數僅次於中國，居第 were brought
二位，而且該數字一直以每年接近40%的速 University of Western Australia to a crisis point.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010


A 45-year-old Australian named Parrish
Charles hailed a cab in Melbourne.
The driver was a 23-year-old student
named Jalvinder Singh. In what was
later described in courst as a “random,
unprovoked and frenzied” attack, Charles
stabbed Singh five times from behind
with a hunting knife hidden in his
trousers.
2008年4月，事態愈演愈烈，演變成了危
機。45歲的澳洲男子Parrish Charles在
墨爾本乘上23歲的留學生Jalvinder Singh
駕駛的的士，隨後用藏在褲子中的獵刀從
後方朝Singh猛刺五刀，這一行為後來在法
庭上被稱為「隨機,無正當理由的瘋狂」
襲擊。
Jalvinder Singh somehow escaped,
crawling from the cab before collapsing,
bleeding, in a gutter where he was
found several hours later by a passing
truck driver and taken to hospital. A
surgeon later said it was a miracle that
he survived. Charles drove away with the
taxi, which he crashed nearby, leading to
his arrest.
Jalvinder Singh設法逃生，從的士中爬
了出來，方倖免於難。他鮮血淋漓地倒在路
邊一個排水溝中。數小時後，一名路過的卡
Whether it is enough to restore Australia’s
reputation, and save its huge international student
education industry, remains to be seen.
車司機發現後將其送往醫院。一名外科醫生
事後表示，他的生還堪稱奇跡。Charles駕
駛的士逃離現場，後在附近地區撞車被捕。
The attack was seen as a last straw
by Indian taxi drivers in Melbourne,
and they protested angrily and loudly,
blockading a major city intersection for
22 hours. They demanded that the attack
be seen not as a one-off piece of mindless
violence, but as evidence of an ongoing
problem. They demanded action.
墨爾本印籍的士司機將該襲擊事件看作
最後的稻草，他們憤怒地高聲抗議，封鎖
該市一個主要十字路口達22小時之久。他
們提出，該襲擊絕非一次性的盲目暴力事
件，而是該市長期存在問題的明證。他們
要求政府採取行動。
They got it. In a rapid response to the
demands of taxi drivers, the Victorian
government agreed to safety screens
in cabs for drivers who wanted them,
and mandatory pre-payment of fares at
night. In September this year Victorian
Premier John Brumby visited India
with the sole purpose of addressing the
violence and discrimination issues which
were receiving prominent coverage in
Indian media. On November 9 the
Economy 43
Australian government introduced new
visa measures to assist overseas students.
On November 12 the Australian Prime
Minister Kevin Rudd visited India, where
he said he was “disgusted” by the recent
attacks on Indian students in his country
and “accepts responsibility”.
他們如願以償。維多利亞州政府迅速做
出回應，同意為有需要的的士司機安裝安
全隔板，並強制要求夜間乘車者預先支
付車費。今年9月，維多利亞州州長John
Brumby訪問印度，唯一目的就是解決印度
媒體突出報道的暴力事件和種族歧視問
題。11月9日，澳洲政府出台為海外留學生
提供支援的新簽證方案。11月12日，澳洲
總理陸克文訪問印度，期間表示對該國近
期發生的襲擊印度留學生的事件感到「憎
惡」並「承擔責任」。
On November 13 Parrish Charles
was sentended to nine and a half years
imprisonment for the knife attack
on Jalvinder Singh. It will be small
compensation for Mr Singh, who will bear
the mental scars for the rest of his life.
11月13日，Parrish Charles因用刀襲
擊Jalvinder Singh而被處以九年半監
禁。對於餘生都將承受心靈傷害的Singh
先生而言，這樣的補償微不足道。
And whether it is enough to restore
Australia’s reputation, and save its huge
international student education industry,
remains to be seen.
此舉是否足以挽回澳洲的聲譽，挽救
其巨大的海外留學生教育產業，仍有待
觀察。 |AT|
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
44
At long last, it’s beginning to
Economy

look as though the deep international

recession of the last 18 months might be
starting to recede. The United States is
hoping to turn last year’s 2.5% shrinkage
of GDP into a growth of maybe 2.8%
in 2010. Japan’s 5.3% decline in 2009
is forecast to go positive by 1.5%. And
China looks set for another storming
year, with growth set to top 8.5% once
again. With overall Asian growth being
variously estimated at between 2.9% and
3.5% in 2010, everyone agrees that Asia is
the place to be.
作者/By Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas
歷經18個月，席捲全球的大衰退終於
開始退潮。繼去年萎縮2.5%之後，2010年
美國經濟有望增長2.8%。日本經濟2009年
下降5.3%，預計今年回升1.5%。今年對中
國來說又將是豐收的一年，經濟再增8.5%
可期。估計2010年整個亞洲的增長率在
2.9%至3.5%之間，個中機遇不言而喻。
In theory, then, Korea ought to be
well placed to benefit from a global
resurgence of investor sentiment.
With its well-educated and versatile
population, its economic growth
projections running at a healthy 3%
in 2010, its assertive government and
its current account surplus running at
nearly 3% of GDP, Korea’s businesses
should be finding the going relatively
easy. But oddly, new money is proving
strangely hard to attract - particularly
when you consider the vast sums that
are going into China. And there’s an
awareness that Korea can’t move to the
next level without more money from
abroad. That’s why we’re currently seeing
a major push by the Korean authorities
to improve the country’s investor appeal.
And, to their great credit, the country’s
leaders haven’t tried to duck the difficult
issues that have made the foreigners
wary up till now.
按理說，韓國本該是全球投資者信心復
甦的受益者，其國民教育水準高，各行各
業人才濟濟， 2010年經濟增長可望達到3%
的健康水平，政府作風硬朗，經常項目順
差幾近GDP的3%，這些都給韓國企業創造
了良好的發展條件，但奇怪的是投資者卻
對此無動於衷。眼看大把資金源源不斷流
向中國，真叫人心裏不是滋味。離開外國
投資，韓國想要更上一層樓談何容易，這
就是為什麼韓國政府不遺餘力提升本國對
投資者的吸引力，而國家領導人也言而有

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010


信，敢於直面那些困擾外國投資者至今的
棘手問題。
The Size of the Challenge
艱巨的挑戰
Before we go any further, let’s stop
and look at the figures. The Finance
Ministry in Seoul reported last month
that the total volume of new foreign direct
investment (FDI) in 2009 had amounted
to $11.5 billion - a 1.9% decline against
the total for 2008. Now that doesn’t
sound too bad until we also consider that
2008 itself was a truly disastrous year.
According to the Bank of Korea, the total
outstanding volume of FDI in 2008 fell
by a horrific 30.1% from 2007 levels, to
just $85.3 billion. And it wasn’t just FDI
that was feeling the pressure. The overall
outstanding balance on all kinds of foreign
holdings (including portfolio holdings)
dropped by 27.5% from $826 billion
in 2007 to just $602 billion. The worst
declines in 2008 came from the US, whose
portfolio investments had declined by a
massive 56% as US investors repatriated
their savings to meet their debt obligations
back home.
細談之前，我們先來看幾組數據。首爾
財政部上月報告顯示，2009年新增外國直
接投資115億美元，比2008年減少1.9%。
能在大災大難的2008年取得如此成績已然
不易。根據韓國央行的數據，2008年外國
直接投資已完成投資額853億美元，相比
Britain was the country’s biggest FDI investor, providing
accounting $1.95 billion, and the Netherlands supplied
another $1.9 billion of new money.
2007年驟減30.1%。感受到壓力的不單是
外國直接投資，事實上，外國投資者持有
各類資產（包括證券投資組合）的未清餘
額總共下降了27.5%，從2007年的8,260億
美元跌至6,020億美元，其中美國投資者
是2008年的重災區，其所持有的投資組合
縮水多達56%，原因是他們撤資套現拿回
國內還債。
It wasn’t any different last year. We
won’t have the final 2009 breakdowns
for portfolio investment for another few
weeks, but we do already have the detailed
Economy 45
figures for FDI itself, and they’re pretty
disappointing. That $11.5 billion figure
for new FDI in 2009 included just $1.49
billion from America, a fall of 12%. Japan
invested just $1.93 billion in Korean
companies, and although Western Europe
accounted for a much more substantial
$5.3 billion of new money, it was still
16.4% down on 2008. Britain was the
country’s biggest FDI investor, providing
$1.95 billion, and the Netherlands
supplied another $1.9 billion of new
money.
去年絲毫不見起色。雖然2009財年的證
券組合投資細節還要等幾週才出爐，但從
已有的外國直接投資數據來看，結果令人
相當失望。2009年新增外國直接投資115
億美元，其中美國僅佔14.9億美元，減少
12%。日本對韓國公司的投資只有19.3億美
元。來自西歐的投資有53億美元，雖然不
少，但相比2008年仍下降16.4%。英國是韓
國最大的外國直接投資者，投資額為19.5
億美元；隨後是荷蘭，投資19億美元。
Why the reluctance? Partly, the
government says, it’s because of the
weakness of the Won, which has lost
20% of its value against the dollar
during the last two years, although it’s
been fighting back recently. And partly
it’s simply that this is a bad time to
be looking for new investment capital.
But Seoul also concedes that there
have been structural weaknesses in
the way that it behaves toward foreign
investment capital - some of it caused
by past policy decisions, and some of
it simply cultural. All of it needs to be
urgently reviewed.
投資者為何裹足不前？首先是近兩年韓
元疲弱不振，兌美元貶值20%，直到最近
才開始反彈，這是官方的解釋。再說那時
也的確不是投資的好時機。不過首爾亦
坦承，其在結構上確實有缺陷暴露在外國
投資資本面前 — 有的是過往政府決策
所致，有的純粹是文化上的碰撞。無論如
何，這些都亟需檢討。
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
46 Economy
A Bold Response from the
Government…
政府大力改革
Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-Hyun
has not tried to shirk his government’s
responsibility. Speaking to the European
Chamber of Commerce recently, Mr
Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-Hyun
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Yoon announced that his government
was bringing in much-needed
structural reforms that would improve
competitiveness, stimulate investment
and create a more business-friendly
environment for foreigners. Among the
measures Mr Yoon outlined at the meeting
were: (i) a speeded-up programme for
privatising 24 public institutions (and
thus to raise much-needed revenues); (ii)
a full exemption from rents for certain
manufacturers operating in the country’s
foreign investment zones; and (iii) the
easing of the regulations that currently
restrict foreign access to core fields such as
health care and education.
在財政部長尹增鉉看來，解決這些問
題，政府義不容辭。近日對歐洲商會講話
時，尹部長表示，韓國政府正在推行迫切
需要的體制改革，旨在提高競爭力，刺激
投資，為國外投資者創造一個更優越的營
商環境。席間尹部長提到幾個措施：(i)
加快24個公辦機構的私有化進程（從而
Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-Hyun has not tried
to shirk his government’s responsibility. Speaking to the
European Chamber of Commerce
提高經營業績）；(ii) 完全免除在韓國
的外商投資區運營的指定企業的租金；及
(iii) 放鬆對外資進入教育,醫療等核心行
業部門的管制。
There’s more. Recently the government
has promised to open up the tourism
sector to foreigners, specifically by creating
a number of new theme parks and other
leisure facilities throughout the country,
and to cut rents for certain tourism projects
by up to 30%. It has also been easing
the regulation of Korea’s entertainment
industry: a recent resolution from the
country’s communications regulator has
opened up the way for majority-owned
foreign subsidiaries to provide content for
internet TV services, something they were
not previously allowed to do.
此外，韓國政府最近承諾向外商開放旅
遊業，鼓勵其在全國各地投資興建主題公
園和其他娛樂休閒設施，並減免若干旅遊
項目的租金，最高減租30%。政府亦放鬆了
對娛樂業的規管：韓國的通訊監管部門近
 Economy 47

Another success has

come for the US
retailer Toys R
Us, which is working
through a partnership
with the Korean
retail chain Lotte
Shopping.

labour relations front. Many foreign

日決議，允許外資控股企業提供互聯網電
視內容服務，這在以前可是禁區。
The government’s reasoning here isn’t
hard to understand. Culture, retailing
and tourism are all seen as easy ways to
improve consumer spending and pull
in foreign currency. But that’s not to
say that foreign investors won’t need to
make some concessions to Korea’s special
cultural sensitivities if they want to
succeed.
政府的苦心不難理解，因為文化,零售和
旅遊皆是刺激消費和吸引外資的捷徑。與
此同時，外國投資者亦應尊重韓國的傳統
文化，這樣才能互利共贏。
One organisation that failed to adapt
was the French supermarket group
Carrefour, which pulled out of the
country in 2006 after complaining that its
essentially European business culture had
been stymied by local stubbornness and
bureaucracy. But its British rival Tesco
has managed to flourish by adopting a
much more consciously Korean culture,
and the company is now going from
companies are battling with ferociously
strong trade unions, and the government
is fighting back by introducing reforms
strength to financial strength. Another which will dilute their power - partly
success has come for the US retailer by changing their leadership structures,
Toys R Us, which is working through a partly by limiting union powers for
partnership with the Korean retail chain short-term workers, and partly by
Lotte Shopping. Clearly, then, there is abolishing union monopolies in certain
much that the foreigners can do to make industries.
the best of the cultural situation they find 在韓國，外國投資者深受勞資關係問題
in Korea. It’s a two-way street. 困擾，強勢的工會跟許多外企都是劍拔弩
法國的家樂福超市集團，即是在韓國遭 張。為此，政府正引入改革來削弱工會的
遇水土不服的例子。因為抱怨其根深蒂固 勢力，比如改變工會的領導體制，比如約
的歐洲企業文化不堪忍受當地的官僚習氣 束臨時工人的工會權力，再比如根除某些
和刻板作風，家樂福於2006年黯然撤出韓 行業的工會壟斷現象。
國。相比之下，家樂福的競爭對手英國樂 Still, nobody is underestimating the
購集團卻是如魚得水，因為它能有意識地 potential for public conflict in the coming
適應韓國的文化，經營業績自然節節高。 months over these critical issues. And, at
來自美國的零售商玩具反鬥城亦是成功的 a time when Seoul’s own political scene
典範，其與韓國零售連鎖店樂天百貨攜手 is preparing for tightly-fought local
合作，巧妙打入韓國市場。顯然，在韓國 elections in June, it wouldn’t be surprising
的文化面前，外國投資者其實大有可為， if those plans were placed on hold. We’ll
焉知禍兮福兮。 see.
不過，任何人都不能低估未來數月這些
...But Labour Issues Are Still Tricky 重大問題釀成公開衝突的可能性。況且到
勞工問題仍需智慧 了六月份，首爾的政治舞台就要上演激烈
Foreign investors will, however, be 的地方選戰，說不定這些計劃都有可能束
looking for more help on the troubled 之高閣。讓我們拭目以待。|AT|

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

48
The Greatest Show on Earth -
Shanghai in the Spotlight
風從海上來 – 上海世博倒計時
In China there are more than 160
cities that boast over a million residents,
whereas in the USA there are less than
30. Beijing may be the capital city and the
seat of government, but Shanghai is the
number one mega city, and shines as the
pinnacle of communist capitalism. It has
had a long history of trade and contact
with the rest of the world, and with its
strategic position on the coast of the
Pacific Ocean it is at the heart of modern
China.
在中國有一百六十多座百萬人口的大城市，
而美國還不到三十個。北京是中國的首度，
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
Economy
也是中央政府所在地，但若論中國的頭號大
都市，當屬閃耀在共產資本主義光環下的上
海。上海有著悠久的商業歷史，自古以來就
與世界有著緊密聯繫，她扼守東出太平洋的
門戶，是現代中國的心臟。
In mid winter a piercing Mongolian
wind can add a penetrating chill to the
night air, and create a rippled surface
on the grand old river that divides
the old and the ultra-modern city of
Shanghai. On the one side stands a
host of riverside classic old European
buildings, built to last, and well occupied
in the district called The Bund. The
grand days of the trading British laid
down this foreign enclave, enriched by
the French suburb, where even today a
log fire can warm the gills as a Filipina
waitress serves a tray of red wine, in a
Parisian-style bar-cum-café. The place
sits in a quiet street, and the ambiance
is as French as you like. Further
downstream, and a little inland, the old
China hums in an area still rich in the
homely village-like atmosphere of an
imperial past. Shops galore implore the
trader-in-everyone to bargain the find
of a life time, amongst the plethora of
handicrafts, jade pieces of varied colours,
an endless array of textiles and soft silk
 Economy 49

The place to be
seen at night is
Nanjing Road. A
wide long street laid out
for pedestrian traffic only,
and a night prowlers
delight.

大型商場到時尚小店，無不應有盡有。不
管白天還是夜晚，南京路永遠都是人流如
織，熙熙攘攘。夜晚的南京路是攝影家的
樂園，五顏六色的霓虹燈繽紛閃爍，烘托
著古香古色的牌匾，一眼望去美輪美奐。

Nanjin Road Modern Life - Modern Living

The place to be seen at night is
Nanjing Road. A wide long street laid
out for pedestrian traffic only, and a night
prowler’s delight. If it’s Chinese fare or an
American hamburger, a coffee or a green
tea, floors of stores or a trendy street shop,
then this is definitively the spotlight of
activity. Day and night, Nanjing Road
hums. It is a photographer’s delight
at night, with the bright red and cosy
coloured neon signs in glorious Chinese
calligraphy adorning the sidewalks.
夜幕低垂，華燈初上，既寬且長的南京
路上人來人往，喜愛夜生活的人定會愛上
這裏，從中餐到漢堡，從綠茶到咖啡，從
動感之都 動感生活
The place to be seen day and night
in Shanghai this year throughout May
to October is at the World Expo. The
dedicated site set both sides of the
Huangpu River covers over five square
kilometres in all, and is placed in the
heart of the city between the two main
bridges. They have built brand new
underground rail services just to ferry
the eager mass of visitors. They are
currently keying up the city to handle a
modest estimate of 70,000,000 people,
which averages out at some 400,000
persons per day. These are staggering
figures to the world at large, but in

The site of the Shanghai World Expo 2010 in Pudong

items, and a whole range of glitch and

kitsch and modern bits and bobs.
隆冬季節，來自蒙古高原的凜冽寒風給
上海的夜晚平添寒意，古老的黃浦江水穿
城而過，把大上海分為新舊兩城。黃浦
江畔的外灘，歐式建築比肩而立，曆久
彌新，仿佛訴說著當年英法租界的繁華
歲月。今時今日，坐在巴黎風情的小餐
館裏，殷勤的菲傭獻上紅酒，壁爐裏火焰
正旺，叫人心裏暖意融融，外面的街道寧
靜安逸，讓你感覺恍若身在法國。沿江而
下，深入腹地，一如舊日的田園風光歷歷
在目。大街上店鋪林立，商品琳琅滿目，
有手工藝品，有珠寶首飾，有綾羅綢緞，
還有那各式各樣的小玩意。

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

 50 Economy
the 38th World Expo, on a
site 20 times larger than
the last Expo in Zaragosa in
Spain in 2008.
China it is a mere handful, in a country
that has a population of over 1.3 billion.
Nevertheless the logistics for a smooth
operation during the six months are
mega-staggering. The Chinese are up
for the challenge of this, the 38th World
Expo, on a site 20 times larger than the
last Expo in Zaragosa in Spain in 2008.
今年五至十月，上海將要舉辦世界博覽
會。會址坐落於黃浦江兩岸，兩座大橋之間
的中心地帶，總面積逾五平方公里。為迎接
八方賓客，上海修建了新的地鐵，預計總客
流量將達七千萬，大約每天有四十萬，這數
字在世界任何地方都足以令人歎為觀止，唯
獨在中國這個擁有十三億人口的國家，卻是
The Bund
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
滄海一粟。無論如何，保障這六個月的交通 Expo Theme “Better City - Better Life”
運輸平穩運行都是一項浩大工程，而且第38
屆世博會的場地規模，也比2008年西班牙薩
世博會主題：城市，讓生活更美好
The World Expo has come around with
拉戈薩的世博會大上二十倍，不過相信中國
人一定能夠應對挑戰。
good timing, as the modern world has
already realised that China is the Future.
Shanghai is about to burst onto the 當世人公認中國是世界的未來之際，世
World Stage yet again in its 700 year 博會的到來恰逢其時。
history, as the host of hosts for this ‘Nation branding’ is an important
brilliant event. element of the Expo, and 200 countries
今天，有著七百餘年歷史的上海就要以 are expected to showcase themselves,
世博會東道主的身份再度登上世界舞台。 theming around their own contributions
The classic centuries old European to urban life and city living. After all,
architecture of The Bund alongside the whether we like it or not, the urban
Huangpu River will be bowing and magnet is the biggest draw for people
kowtowing to the mega-modern iconic worldwide. How to live best in the city
structures of the World Expo pavilions, using the expertise of mankind is a
which will dominate the riverside skyline fascinating concept, and an intriguing one
in Shanghai just downstream from the which will bring in the crowds.
rest of the mega city. It will be a contrast 「國家形象展示」是世博會的重要元素，
worth seeing. 屆時將有兩百多個國家繽紛亮相，緊扣城市
黃浦江畔，外灘之上，古老的歐式建築 與生活的主題展現自我。畢竟，不論我們喜
群將向一座座動感十足充滿現代氣息的世 歡與否，城市都像一塊巨大的磁石，吸引著
博場館頷首致敬，嶄新的它們將是江畔天 全世界的人們。如何發揮人類的智慧把城市
際線新的主宰，新舊交匯，時空穿梭，值 生活變得更美好，這是一個引人入勝的話
得一看。 題，其本身就給人帶來無限遐想。
 Economy 51

A Shanghaied Population
– a city of 20 million and still counting!
「阿拉上海人」
—一座擁有兩千萬人的現代大都會
If it’s the need and greed of the
modern world you are after, then
Shanghai is definitively a catalyst. Best
cross over the slow flowing river and
feel and experience the heart of the
modern world. On this, the Pudong
side of the river, the iconic architectural
eyesore is the Pearl Tower, a dominating
pleasant modern monstrosity that
shines like a rocket ship at night. The
mellow district of The ‘European’ Bund
is a million miles removed from this
ritzy glitzy reflection of the powerhouse
of modern capitalist China, tainted
with its own brand of bureaucratic
communism. Pudong’s rice fields have
been replaced with a jigsaw of fancy
newness that reeks of money and the
wealth of China, both now and well in
to the future.
假如你崇尚現代生活，上海無疑是最好
的選擇。漫步於黃浦江畔，你將體會到這
座現代化大都市的脈動。江東面的浦東
區，上海的標誌性建築東方明珠塔直插雲
霄，在夜幕下光芒萬丈。迷人的外灘，充
滿濃郁的歐洲情調，雖然中國因為官僚作
風的共產主義被人詬病，可是在現代資本
主義中國的經濟之都，到處卻是一片燈紅
酒綠的奢靡之風。當年浦東的萬頃良田，
如今早已舊貌換新顏，這裏聚集著中國的
財富，散發著濃濃的銅臭，現在如此，將
來依舊如此。
After all, it is indeed plain to see that
‘The Age of China’ is upon us. China, and
Asia in general, are increasingly shining
in the limelight of ‘The New World
Order’.
其實只要知道現在是「中國時代」，一
切就都不言而喻。中國，乃至亞洲，正在
崛起為「世界新秩序」的重要一極。
Meanwhile back in Shanghai, the
underground train is one option for a

the Pearl Tower, a

dominating pleasant modern
monstrosity that shines like a
rocket ship at night.

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

52 Economy

The tunnelled entrance

flickers and glitters
in a fantasy type mirage of
twinkling lights, and the
few minutes under
the water is like a
brain shuffle, like some
time machine preparing
the unsuspecting soul for a
glimpse at the future.

ride into modernism. The very short 短一段穿越黃浦江的地鐵之旅，留給旅客 那裏密密麻麻住著成千上萬居民，他們是

journey under the Huangpu River is 的卻是如同迪士尼童話般的夢幻經歷，只 這個十億人口大國的縮影。
curiously pitched at the unsuspecting 見隧道入口燈光閃爍，列車風馳電掣穿過 Down stream on an island in the
traveller, as a bizarre Disney-esque 河底，恍如一架時光穿梭機，載著置身於 middle of the mighty Yangtse Kiang, the
experience. The tunnelled entrance 夢境中的旅客奔向未來。走在浦東街頭， longest river in China, a modern city is
flickers and glitters in a fantasy type 財富的氣息撲面而來，摩天大樓此起彼 being conjured. Heralded as the ‘cleanest’
mirage of twinkling lights, and the 伏，訴說著城市的驕傲，在你追我趕的經 city on our planet, taking note of all the
few minutes under the water is like a 濟賽跑中，大膽與創新就是制勝法寶，相 mistakes of the past, recognising the
brain shuffle, like some time machine 信浦東必能不負眾望。 dooming effect of pollution, mixing-in
preparing the unsuspecting soul for These smart central districts are mostly with all the tricks of the need to be ‘green
a glimpse of the future. Pudong will surrounded by mile after mile of high rise and clean’, it is the new vision of a life of
not disappoint, as the pungent smell residential blocks, like bundles of needles human ‘perfection’.
of money oozes out onto the streets as from afar; their greyness houses millions 沿著中國最長的河流長江順流而下，一
modern skyscrapers strive for pride of of Chinese cheek-by-jowl in a country 個島嶼正如魔法般變成一座現代都市。她
place in the race for power. The newness filled up with well over one billion people 被譽為地球上「最乾淨」的城市，遠離謬
and boldness of it all is the link to the (1,000,000,000). 誤，遠離污染，讓「綠色和清潔」美夢成
booming economic race. 中心城區之外，環繞著一片片高聳的住 真，堪稱一片生活的樂土。
在上海，地鐵是現代生活的代名詞。短 宅樓群，仿佛鋼筋水泥築成的灰白森林， Meanwhile, up stream, modern

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 53

Shanghai cracks on, and the roads

are stacked up with thousands upon
thousands of new cars, which are the
mark of modern success, the proof of
‘progress’ and machines that magnify
pollution.
溯流而上，眼前是現代化的大上海，路
上車水馬龍，那是現代化的成功標誌，是
進步的象徵，當然，也是加劇污染的元
兇。
A ride from Shanghai Airport on
the MagNav tube train is a rush of
pure consciousness. At 240 kilometres
an hour, contrived by German
technology, the rice fields are all a blur,
a brief brush from the past, before
the concrete sprawl swallows up the
traveller in a blink of an eye. At the
end of a visit to Shanghai - this
heaving city, this powerhouse - it
is somehow a great relief to
get back on the MagNav
and in eight minutes A ride from Shanghai
(that luckiest of Chinese
numbers), be whisked Airport on the MagNav
out of town, to breathe
fresh air again, and relax tube train is a rush of
far from the madding
crowd.
pure consciousness.
從上海機場搭乘磁懸浮列 At 240 kilometres an hour,
contrived by German
車是很過癮的事。列車採用
德國技術，時速高達240公里，
technology, the rice
fields are all a blur, a
brief brush from the past,
before the concrete sprawl
swallows up the traveller in
a blink of an eye.

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

還未等乘客眨眼，窗外的片片農田轉瞬即
過，消失在一片模糊之中。當你遊歷完這
座活力四射的大都市，一定要體驗乘坐磁
懸浮的快感，整段旅程只要八分鐘（八是
中國人心中的吉數），就把你帶出喧囂的
都市和熙攘的人群，呼上一口城外清新的
空氣。

Shanghai Dream – Modern Theme

上海夢—現代主題
China loves to be in the driving seat,
and Shanghai will relish its role as the
World Expo host, and gleam in its
momentary spotlight. 2010 will allow
it to prance meaningfully on the World
Stage.
中國已做好駛向未來的準備，上海正要
品嘗舉辦世博會的滋味，萬眾矚目，永垂
史冊，2010年的上海註定是世界舞台的
焦點。
Urban living is definitely all the 網與這場盛事作個心靈上的互動。
rage but it has another side that However, if there is a chance to
looms in the shadows. All is not travel, there is no doubt that it is one
bright and shiny, and there is a dark of those 10,000 things you must do
side to life in the city, which in many before you die. After the event, the
ways is branded as a necessary evil. chances are you may well decide to let
Most of the host city live hidden in go of city living, and make a break to
long tall grey, grisly residential towers live a decent life close to nature, within
that line up for mile after mile after view of a shooting star, far from the
mile, as endless concrete blocks that madding crowd, next to a tree, and
stand soulless and heartless in the out in the country. But before you do,
meaningless space of urban culture. put the Shanghai World Expo in your
城市生活固然是當今世界的主流，但它 Starbucks diary, and do not miss this…
光鮮亮麗的外表之下，也有陰暗一面，也 The Greatest Show on Earth.
隱藏著罪惡。城市生活淹沒於高大冰冷無 不過，倘若有機會的話，參觀世博會一
邊無際的水泥森林之中，一幢幢大樓沒有 定是你生前必做的一萬件事之一。過後，
靈魂，沒有熱情，孤獨地站在城市文化的 也許你會下定決心與城市生活告別，真正
空洞地帶。 投入大自然的懷抱，看天空繁星點點，遠
This year at least Shanghai can stand 離鬧市人群，去過採菊東籬下的田園生
tall and proud, and brand China as the 活。但是在此之前，你一定要把上海世博
heartbeat of modern mankind. 會寫進星巴克的日記裏…全世界最大的盛
不過，至少今年的上海可以傲然屹立， 會，千載難逢，萬勿錯過。|AT|
向世人宣揚中國是世界的中心。
Shanghai’s World Expo hosting will
be the envy of the World while 200 Shangai’s World Expo will be
nations will share with them visions of
the “Better City” and the blessings of the the envy of the World
“Better Life”.
作為世博會的東道主，上海引來世界的
while 200 nations will share
羡慕，屆時將有兩百多個國家參加展會，
詮釋他們對城市與生活的美好理念。
with them visions of the
Needless to say, if you can’t physically
visit the World Expo you can be there
“Better City” and the
in spirit with the fully interactive hyper- blessings of the “Better
online version of the whole affair.
假如你無法親臨世博會，可以通過互聯
Life”.
 Economy
作者/By Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas
作者/by Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas
It is a foregone conclusion that
55
Asia will lead the much-awaited global
economic recovery in 2010. Among the
emerging markets referred to as BRIC
and the Next-11, eight of the fifteen
economies are in Asia: China, India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the
Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam.
With China leading them at a forecasted
GDP growth rate of 9.5 percent in 2010,
Asian economies will average about 7
percent growth for 2010 in contrast with
less than 2.0 percent for the developed
economies. Except for Japan, the driving
force for the stronger recovery in Asian
economies is domestic consumption. The
much-awaited rebalancing of the global
economy is happening: Asians, formerly
the highest savers in the world, are now
discovering the pleasures of splurging on
consumer goods, including discretionary
items, while Americans are reacquiring
their old virtue of thrift.
早有學者預計，亞洲將於2010年引領全
球經濟走出低谷。在金磚四國及新鑽十一
國等新興市場組織中，十五個經濟體有八
個位於亞洲，分別為：中國,印度,巴基斯
坦,孟加拉,印尼,菲律賓,韓國及越南。其
中中國的 GDP 增長預計在2010年達到9.5
％，繼續保持領先，亞洲經濟體2010年的
平均增長率預計約為7％，發達國家的平均
增長率則不足2％。亞洲國家實現經濟強勢
復甦的主要推動力來自國內消費，但日本
除外。令人期待已久的全球經濟重新平衡
正在形成：亞洲以往是全球最為節儉的地
區，如今正充分享受消費品帶來的愉悅，
而美國人卻重拾節儉傳統。
The emerging markets of Asia passed
the test of the Great Recession of 2008-
2009. With the exception of South Korea,
all of them avoided a recession in 2009
and are in a position to rebound strongly
in 2010. Two of them, Indonesia and
the Philippines will get a special boost
from the establishment of the world’s
biggest free trade area (FTA) starting
January 1, 2010 on which date Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and China agreed to eliminate
barriers to investments and tariffs on 90
percent of products. The other ASEAN
members (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and
Burma) will follow suit in 2015. The total
consumer market of AFTA+China FTA
is 1.7 billion with per capita incomes
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
56 Economy

will surpass Japan and Europe to be the

Number One partner. In the AFTA-
China FTA, the average tariff rate China Imports to the BRIC
will be charging on ASEAN goods will
be cut to 0.1 percent from 9.8 percent.
countries were
Average tariffs imposed on Chinese expected to surpass
goods by ASEAN states will fall to 0.6
percent from 12.8 percent. The sectors imports to the U.S.
that will most benefit from this FTA are
services, construction, infrastructure and for the first time
manufacturing.
中國－東盟自由貿易區內的跨地區貿易
ever in 2009
在過去十年內年均增長達20％。中國已經
超過美國，成為東盟第三大貿易夥伴。
在未來三至五年內，中國將超過日本及歐
洲，成為第一大貿易夥伴。在中國－東盟 will grow 6.3 percent in 2010, while the
自由貿易區，中國對東盟商品徵收的平均 global economy will expand 4.4 percent.
稅率將由9.8％降至0.1％。東盟對中國商 Imports to the BRIC countries were
品徵收的平均關稅將由12.8％降至0.6％。 expected to surpass imports to the U.S.
服務業,建築業,基礎設施及製造業將透過 for the first time ever in 2009. Even if
該自由貿易區獲益。 developed countries recover completely in
The Asian emerging markets will join 2010, emerging markets will account for
the other emerging markets in the world 70 to 75 percent of the growth in global
like Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Nigeria, output in the next three to five years.
Egypt, Turkey, and Iran in building on 亞洲的新興市場將與巴西,俄羅斯,墨西
their relatively strong performances 哥,尼日利亞,埃及,土耳其及伊朗等全球其
in the crisis year of 2009. In 2009, the 他新興市場攜手，共同應對2009年金融危
MSCI emerging markets index increased 機。2009年，MSCI 新興市場指數增加65
averaging $2,000 to $5,000 annually. This 65 percent, compared with a 25 percent ％，標準普爾500指數增加25％。美林證券
is the range of incomes in which demand jump in the Standard & Poor’s 500- （Merrill Lynch）預計，2010年新興市場
for consumer products and services stock index. Merrill Lynch predicts that 的綜合增長將達到6.3％，全球經濟增長為
tends to increase at double-digit rates, emerging market economies in general 4.4％。2009年，金磚四國的進口額首次超
as experienced in China during the last
twenty years.
亞洲新興市場成功經受2008－2009年全
球經濟蕭條的考驗。所有新興市場均在
2009年成功避免衰退，並積極實現2010年
的強勢復甦，其中僅韓國除外。印尼及菲
律賓還將透過一項全球最大的自由貿易區
（FTA）協議獲得千載難逢的經濟推動，該
協議自2010年1月1日生效，印尼,馬來西
亞,菲律賓,新加坡,泰國及中國同意消除九
成產品的投資及關稅壁壘。其他東盟成員
國（越南,柬埔寨,老撾及緬甸）將於2015
年加入自由貿易區。中國－東盟自由貿易
區的合計消費市場規模高達17億美元，人
均年收入約為2,000美元至5,000美元。對
於該收入水平，消費品及服務的需求會以
兩位數增長，正如中國在過去二十年經歷
的情況。
Intraregional trade in the AFTA-
China region has been expanding at 20
percent annually over the last ten years.
China has overtaken the U.S. to become
ASEAN’s third largest trading partner.
In the next three to five years, China

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010


過美國進口額。即使發達國家在2010年完
全恢復，在未來三至五年內，新興市場將
為全球經濟增長貢獻70％至75％的份額。
Funds focused on equities in emerging
markets attracted a record of US $75.4
billion in 2009, far surpassing their
previous high of US $54 billion in 2007.
Much room for growth is expected
because only 3 percent of assets managed
by U.S. fund managers are invested in
emerging markets. Goldman Sachs
economists expect consumer spending in
emerging markets to grow at 6.5 percent
in 2010 after growth of 2.8 percent in
2009. The equivalent figures for advanced
economies in 2010 will be 0.2 percent.
This high growth of consumption
Funds focused on
equities in emerging
markets attracted a
record of US $75.4
billion in 2009,
far surpassing
their previous
high of US $54
billion in 2007
spending is mainly attributed by these
economists to a rapidly expanding middle
class in emerging markets. In a report
dated November 2009, Goldman Sachs
makes it clear that the consumer boom
is not just a short-term opportunity but
rather a prolonged and sustainable theme.
關注新興市場股權的投資基金在2009年
創下754億美元的投資紀錄，遠遠超出2007
年540億美元的高峰。由於美國基金經理管
Economy 57
理的資產僅有3％投入新興市場，該領域的
增長潛力巨大。高盛的經濟學家預計，新
興市場的消費額繼2009年增長2.8％之後，
將於2010年增長6.5％。而發達國家2010年
的消費額增長可能僅為0.2％。新興市場的
中產階級規模不斷擴大是消費高速增長的
主要推動因素。高盛在2009年11月發佈的
分析報告顯示，消費繁榮並非短期機遇，
而是長期延續的主題。
Long-term investors should remember
these words from the Goldman Sachs
report: “This growth of the middle
class in emerging economies (defined
as those with incomes between $6,000
and $30,000 in PPP terms) is set to
continue, if not accelerate, over the next
two decades and is likely to be critical to
how the world is changing... the pace of
expansion in the emerging middle class
is likely to continue growing until a peak
in about a decade. As a result, two billion
people could join the global middle class
by 2030, or around 30 percent of the
world’s population.”
長期投資人應高度關注高盛報告的下列
內容：「新興經濟體中產階級（定義為人
均年收入在6,000美元至30,000美元之間）
的增長將在未來二十年內繼續保持（如未
出現加速增長），該群體將對全球格局的
變化產生至關重要的影響。… 新興市場
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
58 Economy

中產階級群體的擴大將在約十年後達到頂
峰。在2030年之前，全球將有20億人步入
中產階層，約佔全球人口的30％。」
This statistically well-supported
assertion should remove the mystique
from the phrase “emerging markets.”
In the last century, there was much
exaggerated talk about the East Asian
economic miracle, referring to the
explosive growth of the so-called “tiger
economies” such as Singapore, Hong
Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. Nobel
laureate Paul Krugman brought everyone
back to planet Earth by pointing out
that the spectacular growth among these
Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs)
could be entirely explained by the way
their leaders intelligently mobilized the
demographic dividend that resulted
from the baby boom after the Second
World War. Much of the growth could
be explained by the harnessing of the
abundant manpower they then had, as
they encouraged export-oriented, labor-
intensive industries.
該預測統計論據充分，有助於消除「新
興市場」的神秘感。上世紀，「亞洲四小
龍」－新加坡,香港,韓國和台灣的爆炸式
經濟增長創造東亞經濟奇跡，成為熱議的 Huge government deficits will have to 水資源。自然資源將吸引大量國內及境外投
話題。諾貝爾獎得主 Paul Krugman 揭示 be brought down to more reasonable 資，從而鞏固未來三至五年內的消費導向型
新興工業化經濟體（NIE）實現高速增長的 levels. Thus, consumption and private 增長。至少在可預見的未來，歷經過去兩年
原因，即國家領導人合理利用二戰後嬰兒 investment will have to be the engines of 政府積極刺激經濟之後，全球多數國家的政
潮帶來的人口紅利。多數經濟增長均充分 growth. 府開支將大幅縮減。巨額財政赤字必須降至
發揮人力資源的優勢，鼓勵發展出口導向 與之類似，憑藉龐大人口基數，如今的新 合理的水平。因此，消費及私人投資將成為
型及勞動密集型工業。 興市場將透過巨大國內市場的資本化引領全 經濟增長的推動引擎。
In an analogous way, the emerging 球增長。金磚四國及新鑽十一國新興市場 The importance of large populations
markets of today will lead the world in （韓國除外）均有人力資源及自然資源豐富 for both a consumption-led growth and a
growth by capitalizing on their huge 的優勢，包括農業土地,森林,礦產,石油或 labour-intensive approach to sustainable
domestic markets, thanks to their big development should act as an antidote
populations. All of the BRIC and to the recent surge in neo-Malthusian
Next-11 emerging markets (with the theories which consider population as
exception of South Korea) have the
In an analogous way, the a liability rather than as an asset. It is
additional advantage of being rich, not emerging markets not a coincidence that all the emerging
only in human resources, but in natural markets included in the list of Goldman
resources such as agricultural lands, of today will lead Sachs have at least a population of 50
forests, mineral deposits, petroleum or million. For comments, my email address
aquatic resources. These natural resources the world in growth by is bvillegas@uap.edu.ph.
will attract substantial domestic and
foreign investments, which will reinforce
capitalizing on their huge 新馬爾薩斯人口論近期開始盛行，該理
論認為，人口並非經濟發展的資本，而是
the consumption-led growth that they
will experience in the next three to
domestic markets, 一種負擔，新興市場憑藉龐大人口基數實

thanks to their big

現消費導向型增長及勞動密集型可持續發
five years. At least for the foreseeable 展，正是對該理論的有力回擊。在高盛
future, most countries in the world will
experience a significant slowdown in populations 列出的新興市場清單中，所有國家都至少
擁有5千萬人口，這絕非偶然。如有意發
government spending, after the aggressive 表評論，請發送電郵至 bvillegas@uap.
pump priming of the last two years. edu.ph。 |AT|

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 59
but also the legal framework and how a system is
implemented. Hence, it is not surprising that the
leading Asian markets such as Japan, Singapore and
Hong Kong – none of which are run by “saints” but

Asian Private
by competent political leaders who strictly adhere
to rules. Thus, while honest leaders are trusted, the
ability to verify adherence to rules is what keeps the
system honest and functioning.

Capital
誠實正直的領導人並非實現理想的政策及企
業文化的唯一因素，法律框架及制度的貫徹方

Incentives and bureaucratic 式亦不可或缺。因此，日本 , 新加坡 , 香港等

亞洲領先市場無一是由「聖賢」治國，而是擁
burdens conundrum! 有能嚴格遵章守紀的合格政治領導人，這著實

亞洲私人資本－
在情理之中。由此看來，儘管民眾信賴誠實正
直的領導人，但領導人遵章守紀的能力才是保
持制度透明公正且良性運轉的關鍵。

Why bother with venture capital and private

激勵措施與官僚體制負擔迷局！
equity?
為何制度環境對風險資本及私募股權影響重
大？
作者/by Ricardo Barcelona Venture capital deals with early stage business,
where seed capital and financing enables business
ideas to blossom. Entrepreneurs are engines of
growth, sources of innovation and employment
creation. As business flourishes, private equity
Asian capital markets the world)... and what can the laggards do
funds acquisitions and mergers that allow venture
exhibit contrasting features. Japan, Hong Kong about it? capitalists to realize their gains.
and Singapore score high on attractiveness, 為何亞洲地區（及全世界）存在如此反差 風險資本主要與初創企業合作，商業理念憑
economic robustness and transparency. In 鮮明的特點？滯後國家應採取何種應對措 藉種子資本及融資方能發展壯大。企業家是經
contrast, China, India and the VIPs (Vietnam, 施？我一直對這個問題興趣濃厚。 濟增長的引擎，是創新的源泉，亦是創造就業
Indonesia and the Philippines), while Corruption, bribery, crime and bureaucratic 機會的要素。隨著業務不斷發展壯大，透過私
competitive in economic performance, lag in burdens are what make the laggards less 募股權基金的收購及合併，風險資本方能獲得
overall attractiveness for venture capital and attractive to investors. To reverse their 收益。
private equity investors. These are the results of misfortunes, voters demand the election of Scale of economy and its activities fuel
a new index developed by the IESE Business honest leaders for deliverance, while bureaucrats opportunities, with growth encouraging
School, Spain1 – 2009 top rated business work double time to institute yet more rules entrepreneurial pursuits. As a result of favourable
school globally by The Economist. and incentives adding to bureaucratic burdens. tax regimes and dynamic research that generates
亞洲資本市場呈現出反差鮮明的特點。 While honest political leaders are always new ideas and technologies, business start up
日本 , 香港及新加坡在投資吸引力 , 經濟 welcome, integrity alone does not produce increases, and thus employment is created under a
穩健度及監管透明度方面優勢顯著。與之 buoyant economies. flourishing economy.
相對，中國 , 印度及 VIP 地區（越南 , 印 政治腐敗 , 賄賂成風 , 高犯罪率及官僚 經濟規模及經濟活動可催生商機，業務增長
尼及菲律賓）儘管經濟表現富於競爭力， 體制負擔是滯後國家缺乏吸引力的主要原 將鼓勵企業家創造更多價值。憑藉優惠稅收制
但對於風險資本及私募股權投資人而言， 因。為改變這種不利局面，選民要求選舉 度及催生新理念及科技的創新科研，企業將不
其總體吸引力相對滯後。以上結論源自西 出誠實正直的領導人，與此同時，官僚機 斷擴大規模，在經濟繁榮的環境下，將創造更
班牙 IESE 商學院 1 最新發佈的統計指標， 構則投入雙倍時間制定更多規則及激勵措 多就業機會。
該商學院被《經濟學家》 （The Economist） 施，使官僚體制的負擔更加沉重。儘管誠 Such wealth creation flourishes under
雜誌評為 2009 年度全球頂尖商學院。 實正直的政治領袖始終受到民眾歡迎，但 transparent legal frameworks and secure property
僅憑正直無法實現經濟繁榮。 rights. That is, entrepreneurs look to reap the fruits
I am always intrigued by this question: Why It is not merely honest leaders that result of their labour when successful, while risking
the contrasting performance in Asia (and in sound policies and entrepreneurial culture, their capital to start or acquire businesses. Thus, in

1 Professors Alexander Groh and Heinrich von Liechtenstein coordinated the research, with research assistance from Karsten Lieser.
1 Alexander Groh 及 Heinrich von Liechtenstein 教授共同開展此項研究，Karsten Lieser 提供研究協助。

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

60 Economy
markets where corruption is rampant, contracts
are not respected, and peace and order are
deteriorating, the high cost of doing business
discourages investments, making any access to
incentives a fleeting advantage.
只有在透明的法律框架及穩固的財產權
利保障下，這種財富創造才能繁榮發展。
企業家在承擔投資風險創辦或收購企業的
同時，希望在業務成功時得到勞動回報。
因此，在腐敗成風的市場，合約得不到應
有的尊重，市場混亂無序，業務成本居高
不下，嚴重削弱投資吸引力，任何激勵措
施的效果都是曇花一現。
The link between business creation and
wealth formation is through a functioning
capital market. Demand for financing, in less
developed markets, is met by commercial banks
that often take a conservative view of lending
and investment. Such conservatism discourages
risk taking that is essential to innovation and
new business development. In contrast, an
efficient capital market opens avenues for
investors to directly invest in business ventures
that commercial banks are likely to ignore.
創業與財富形成之間須透過運轉良好的資
本市場實現銜接。在欠發達市場，一般由商
業銀行滿足企業的融資需求，但商業銀行對
於此類貸款及投資往往態度保守。這種保守
主義會抑制企業承擔風險，而風險恰是創新
及新業務發展的要素。與之對應，高效的資
本市場為投資人提供直接注資於風險業務的
機會，彌補商業銀行的不足。
These premises are supported by the research
on factors that influence global funds flows for
venture capital and private equity by Groh and
Liechtenstein. Constructing a composite index
that incorporates 66 variables, 1% increase in
index score results in 0.78% increase in capital
flows to a market. Asian data indicate a slightly
lower impact of 0.68%, although varying
significantly between leaders and laggards.
Groh 及 Liechtenstein 教授針對風險資
本及私募股權全球資金流動的影響因素研
究給予該觀點有力支援。其研究建立由 66
個變量組成的綜合指數，指數增加 1％導致
資本流向市場增加 0.78％。亞洲市場的領
先國家與滯後國家之間差異顯著，總體影
響指數略低，為 0.68％。
These factors are grouped into six clusters that
track relative economic, social and institutional
strengths:
研究人員將各類因素分為六組，追蹤相關
經濟情況 , 社會及制度優勢 ：
1. Economic activity: Economic size, wealth and
growth, as well as inflation and labour force
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
5. Human and social environment: Literacy,
labour market policies, crime, rigidity of labour
market, and the degree of corruption and
bribery influence the cost of doing business.
5. 人力及社會環境 ：文化素質 , 勞動力
市場政策 , 犯罪率 , 勞動力市場剛性 ,
腐敗程度以及賄賂對經營成本的影響。
6. Entrepreneurial culture and opportunities:
Ease of starting and doing business,
innovation, bureaucracy and the degree of
administrative burdens influence the rewards
that entrepreneurs can reap from their honest
labour.
6. 企業家文化及機遇 ：創立及經營的便利
度 , 創新 , 官僚體制及行政約束對企業家
獲取誠實勞動回報的影響。
The index scores are compared with the
United States as the reference. Hence, a score
higher than 100 for a country implies stronger
performance in a particular factor relative to the
Why the contrasting performance United States. The details of the components
of the Venture Capital and Private Equity
in Asia (and the world)... Country Attractive Index (VCPE Index) are
and what can the available at http: \\vcpeindex.iese.us/
指數得分以美國市場作為參照基準。因
laggards do about it? 此，如某一國家的得分超過 100，表明該國
在特定因素方面優勢超過美國。如需查閱
風險資本及私募股權國家吸引力指數（VCPE
– with high growth economies creating more 指數）的詳細內容，請瀏覽 ：http: \\
opportunities. vcpeindex.iese.us/
1. 經濟活動 ：經濟規模 , 財富 , 增長 , 通
貨膨脹及勞動力，增長率較高的經濟可創 How Asia stacks up?
造更多機會。 亞洲總體情況如何？
2. Depth of capital market: Size and ease of Just as the depth of the financial crisis
listing, liquidity, transparency of rules and bank surprised most pundits, the strength of the
lending to start ups facilitate business formation rebound – particularly for Asia – confounded
and fuel mergers and acquisitions. even the most optimistic forecasts prior to
2. 資本市場深度 ：上市規模及便利程度 , summer of 2009. While the IESE Business
清算 , 規則透明度 , 銀行向創業公司提供 School’s 2009 survey used data prior to the
貸款推動業務成型的情況以及推動並購的 2008 financial crisis, the relative positioning of
情況。 markets remains meaningful. This perspective is
3. Taxation: Incentives, difference in corporate supported thus far by the more rapid recoveries
and income tax rates as proxy for incentives for in 2009 achieved by markets that scored highly
self-employment, and the implementation of in the survey.
tax rules facilitate retention of capital gains. 金融危機影響的深度已經令多數學者大跌
3. 稅收 ：激勵措施 , 憑藉企業稅及收入稅 眼鏡，而亞洲國家的強勁復蘇勢頭甚至超
差異鼓勵自我雇傭 , 以及執行稅收法規促 出 2009 年夏季之前最樂觀預測的意料。儘
進資本收益挽留。 管 IESE 商學院的 2009 年調查使用的是
4. Investor protection and corporate governance: 2008 年金融危機之前的數據，對各個市場
Property rights, regulation, ease in seeking 的相對情況分析仍具有參考意義。調查中
legal recourse, and disclosures keep the system 得分較高的市場在 2009 年的恢復速度更快，
honest and transparent. 充分印證該調查結論的價值。
4. 投資人保護及企業管治 ：財產權 , 法規 , Table 1.0 shows Asia leading Africa and
尋求法律援助便利度以及保持體制公正透 Latin America. Within Asia, Hong Kong
明的披露措施。 and Singapore, consistent top performers in
 international transparency and governance 在將優勢法規框架轉化為成果方面，例
surveys, surpass Japan in investment 如經濟活動 , 資本市場深度 , 企業家文化
attractiveness. 及機遇，亞洲各國的情況與美國及發達經
表 1.0 表明亞洲領先非洲及拉美。在亞 濟體的對比結果迥異。表 2.0 具體說明該
洲內部，香港及新加坡在國際透明度及管 情況，領先國家與滯後國家的得分差距顯
治調查方面位居前列，投資吸引力超過日 著。
本。 Let me elaborate on this by segmenting the
What divides advanced Asian economies Asian data into three broad categories: Advance
such as Hong Kong and Singapore from Asia – Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and the
the United States, however, has less to do Republic of Korea; Emerging Asia – Taiwan,
with transparency and legislation governing Malaysia, China, Thailand and India; and VIP –
business. Hong Kong and Singapore have Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.
surpassed the United States and the developed 我們可將亞洲數據分為三類 ：發達亞洲
economies in terms of legislation, given their －香港 , 新加坡 , 日本及韓國 ；新興亞洲
higher scores on factors related to rules and －臺灣 , 馬來西亞 , 中國 , 泰國及印度 ；
legislative frameworks such as Taxation, 及 VIP －越南 , 印尼及菲律賓。
Investor Protection and the Human and Social The virtues of advance Asian economies
Environment. are perhaps well known – transparent rules, a
如將香港及新加坡等先進的亞洲經濟體 qualified work force, and possession of basic
與美國對比，在透明度及管治法規方面差 conditions that can sustain a dynamic economic
異不大。在稅收 , 投資人保護 , 人力及社 and investment climate.
會環境等法規及法律框架相關因素方面， 眾所周知，亞洲先進經濟體的優點包括
香港及新加坡得分更高，已經超過美國及 透明的法規 , 高質素勞動力以及具備能維
發達經濟體。 持活躍經濟及投資文化的基礎條件。
When it comes to translating such favourable Capital market size and depth are drawbacks.
legislative frameworks into outcomes, such as Cross border listing solves part of this problem,
Economic Activity, Depth of Capital Market, whereby globally competitive companies list
and Entrepreneurial Culture and Opportunities, their stocks in London and / or New York to
Asia’s relative position to the United States and mitigate limitations of their local stock markets.
developed economies tells a vastly divergent 資本市場規模及深度是亞洲先進經濟體
story. This is shown in Table 2.0, where theAsianVentureCapitalandPrivateEquity
的不足在所在。跨境上市可部分解決此類 1
gaps in scores between leaders and laggards are RicardoGBarcelona
問題，具有國際競爭力的公司可在倫敦及
 significant. ／或紐約上市，緩解本地股票市場的限制。
rights,ȱregu.ȱȱ

Tableȱ1.0ȱ–ȱRelativeȱScoresȱofȱEmergingȱRegionsȱvsȱUnitedȱStatesȱȱȱȱȱȱ
Table 1.0 – Relative Scores of Emerging Regions vs United States
Investor
Depthof Human& Entrepreneur
Economic Protection&
Rank Region Capital Taxation Social ialCulture&
Activity Corporate
Market Environment Opportunities
Governance
HongKong 5 Asia 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9
Singapore 6 Asia 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8
Japan 7 Asia 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7
SouthAfrica 43 Africa 53,3 18,0 115,2 73,8 34,3 30,3
Morocco 56 Africa 65,0 9,1 101,4 38,8 37,9 26,2
Nigeria 62 Africa 59,8 5,6 101,3 39,7 40,0 14,7
Chile 32 LatinAmerica 72,7 12,6 Ṇ㳚桐晒屯㛔⍲䥩⊇偉㪲
112,8 80,2 77,0 1 35,2
Mexico 49 LatinAmerica 80,5 11,1 108,9 RicardoGBarcelona
51,9 37,1 31,9
Brazil

51 LatinAmerica 79,9 19,3 39,2 45,4 42,0 22,7 ȱ
Source: IESE Business School
Tableȱ2.0ȱ–ȱRelativeȱScoresȱofȱAsianȱmarketsȱvsȱUnitedȱStatesȱ
表1.0－新興地區對比美國的相對得
堐 1.0炼㕘冰⛘⋨⮵㭼伶⚳䘬䚠⮵⼿↮ 分
Investor
Depthof屯㛔ⶪ⟜ ㈽屯Ṣ Human&
Ṣ≃⍲ Entrepreneur
ẩ㤕⭞㔯⊾
Economic 䴻㾇㳣≽ Protection&
ᾅ嬟⍲
㌺⎵ Rank Capital Taxation Social ialCulture&
⛘⋨Activity
Market 㶙⹎
 䦭㓞 Corporate
ẩ㤕䭉㱣 
Environment
⍲㨇忯
䣦㚫䑘⠫ Opportunities
Governance 
HongKong
楁㷗 5 5Ṇ㳚 89,3 89,3 37,7 37,7 137,7 137,7 107,1107,1 106,1
106,1 77,9
77,9
㕘≈✉
Singapore 6 6Ṇ㳚 87,5 87,5 26,0 26,0 141,7 141,7 113,5113,5 124,1
124,1 93,8
93,8
㖍㛔
Japan 7 7Ṇ㳚 96,9 96,9 37,5 37,5 101,6 101,6 91,0 91,0 92,1
92,1 94,7
94,7
⋿朆 43 朆㳚 53,3 18,0 115,2 73,8 34,3 30,3
RepublicofKorea 13 87,7 29,8 134,6 75,7 73,6 89,7
㐑㳃⒍ 56 朆㳚 65,0 9,1 101,4 38,8 37,9 26,2
Taiwan
⯤㖍⇑Ṇ 62
23
朆㳚
82,2 59,8
18,7 5,6
116,9 101,3
75,8 39,7 73,2
40,0
59,9
14,7
Malaysia
㘢⇑ 32 25
㉱ᶩ伶㳚 77,5 72,7 23,0 12,6 123,7 112,8 73,3 80,2 77,0
75,8 43,2
35,2
China
⡐大⒍ 49 28
㉱ᶩ伶㳚 79,7 80,5 37,7 11,1 72,1 108,9 48,6 51,9 37,1
61,4 29,6
31,9
Thailand
⶜大 51 36
㉱ᶩ伶㳚 73,4 79,9 15,6 19,3 106,4 39,2 58,1 45,4 42,0
62,8 26,6
22,7
India 38 63,0 33,5 97,1 54,8 64,9 11,5
資料來源：IESE 商學院
Indonesia 54 63,5 13,8 97,5 32,1 47,6 16,6
Vietnam 60 43,2 7,6 99,2 32,2 46,5 23,7
Philippines 61 60,8 9,9 96,8 38,4 38,9 11,0 ȱ
屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉IESE ⓮⬠昊
Source:ȱIESEȱBusinessȱSchoolȱȱ
62 Economy

Divergent rules among Asian stock AsianVentureCapitalandPrivateEquity

業創始人希望維持對企業的控制，穩固家 1 that of surveys on transparency conducted by
exchanges inadvertently failed to translate RicardoGBarcelona
族財富，對企業上市態度消極。對於現金 institutions such as the Heritage Foundation

Asia’s dynamic economic growth into a deeper 豐富的家族而言，上市的積極性更低。由 and Transparency International.
rights,ȱregu.ȱȱ
pool of capital to fund Asian business ventures. 於企業正逐步向專業化管理過渡，加之 如果分析能體現執行質素的因素，包括
Work towards integration such as ASEAN 2008 年金融危機的衝擊，以及企業正積極 投資人保護及管治 , 人力及社會發展 , 企
Tableȱ1.0ȱ–ȱRelativeȱScoresȱofȱEmergingȱRegionsȱvsȱUnitedȱStatesȱȱȱȱȱȱ
stock exchanges, may resolve this apparent 擴張業務，在這些因素的綜合影響下，家 業家文化及機遇，各個市場的排名結果與
disadvantage by increasing the depth Economic
and size Depthof族企業的態度正在轉變。 Investor
Protection&
Human& Entrepreneur Heritage Foundation 及 Transparency
Rank Region Capital Taxation Social ialCulture&
of capital markets. Activity
Market
Corporate
Environment Opportunities
International 等機構進行的透明度調查
Governance
由於亞洲各國股票交易所的規則迥異， What went wrong in practice? 結論類似。
HongKong 5 Asia 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9
導致難以將亞洲的積極經濟增長轉化為更
Singapore 6 Asia 87,5 26,0實際操作領域遇到哪些問題？
141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8 Countries with low transparency scores
Japan 7 Asia 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7
具深度的資本來源，無法為亞洲風險業務
SouthAfrica 43 Africa 53,3 18,0
To attract investments,
Ṇ㳚桐晒屯㛔⍲䥩⊇偉㪲
115,2 73,8
developing
34,3
markets
1 30,3
(i.e. more corrupt) tended to score low on
注入充足資金。東盟國家股票交易所的整
Morocco 56 Africa 65,0 9,1rely heavily
101,4 on tax 38,8
incentives.37,9
RicardoGBarcelona With the26,2 factors that indicate quality of implementation.
Nigeria 62 Africa 59,8 5,6 101,3 39,7 40,0 14,7
Chile
合工作可提高資本市場的深度及規模，有 32 LatinAmerica 72,7 12,6exception of China,
112,8 the scores
80,2 on Taxation
77,0 35,2 Hence, while the rules may resemble developed
Mexico
助於彌補該顯著劣勢。 49 LatinAmerica 80,5 11,1
converge with
108,9
the U.S.
51,9
At least
37,1
on paper, 31,9
market legislation, corrupt practices beholden
堐 1.0炼㕘冰⛘⋨⮵㭼伶⚳䘬䚠⮵⼿↮
Brazil 51 LatinAmerica 79,9 19,3 39,2 45,4 42,0 22,7 ȱ
the implementation of the rules to competing
Table 2.0 – Relative Scores of 䴻㾇㳣≽
Asian markets
屯㛔ⶪ⟜ vs United States
Tableȱ2.0ȱ–ȱRelativeȱScoresȱofȱAsianȱmarketsȱvsȱUnitedȱStatesȱ
㈽屯Ṣ
ᾅ嬟⍲
Ṣ≃⍲ ẩ㤕⭞㔯⊾ interests that render apparently transparent
㌺⎵ ⛘⋨
 䦭㓞
ẩ㤕䭉㱣 
⍲㨇忯
rules into unpredictable regulatory framework.
㶙⹎ Investor 䣦㚫䑘⠫

Depthof Human& Entrepreneur
Economic Protection& Perhaps, this is best illustrated through an
楁㷗 Ṇ㳚
5 Rank 89,3Capital 37,7 Taxation137,7 107,1 106,1
Social ialCulture&
77,9
Activity Corporate
㕘≈✉ 6 Ṇ㳚 87,5Market 26,0 141,7 124,1 Opportunities
113,5 Environment 93,8 example.
Governance
㖍㛔 7 Ṇ㳚 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7
HongKong
⋿朆 43 5朆㳚 89,3 53,3 37,7 18,0 137,7 115,2 107,173,8 106,134,3 77,9
30,3
對於透明度得分較低（即更腐敗）的國家，
Singapore
㐑㳃⒍ 56 6朆㳚 87,5 65,0 26,0 9,1 141,7 101,4 113,538,8 124,137,9 26,2
93,8 可體現執行質素的因素得分亦較低。因此，
⯤㖍⇑Ṇ
Japan 62 7朆㳚 96,9 59,8 37,5 5,6 101,6 101,3 91,0 39,7 40,0
92,1  14,7
94,7
㘢⇑ 32 ㉱ᶩ伶㳚 72,7 12,6 112,8 80,2 77,0 35,2 此類國家儘管法規與發達市場類似，但法
RepublicofKorea 13 87,7 29,8 134,6 75,7 73,6 89,7
⡐大⒍ 49 ㉱ᶩ伶㳚 80,5 11,1 108,9 51,9 37,1 31,9 規執行背後的腐敗會導致表明透明的法規
Taiwan 23 82,2 18,7 116,9 75,8 73,2 59,9
⶜大 51 ㉱ᶩ伶㳚 79,9 19,3 39,2 45,4 42,0 22,7
Malaysia 25 77,5 23,0 123,7 73,3 75,8 43,2 轉變為難以預計的監管框架。或許，透過
China 28 79,7 37,7 72,1 48,6 61,4 29,6
Thailand 36 73,4 15,6 106,4 58,1 62,8 26,6 舉例可充分闡釋該情況。
India 38 63,0 33,5 97,1 54,8 64,9 11,5 Imagine a football field where each team that
Indonesia 54 63,5 13,8 97,5 32,1 47,6 16,6
屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉IESE ⓮⬠昊 qualifies to play is given access to funding and
Vietnam 60 43,2 7,6 99,2 32,2 46,5 23,7
Philippines 61 60,8 9,9 96,8 38,4 38,9 11,0 ȱ exploit merchandising opportunities that are
Source: IESE Business School lucrative. Undoubtedly, once qualified to play,
Source:ȱIESEȱBusinessȱSchoolȱȱ the teams execute their game according to a
表2.0－亞洲市場對比美國的相對得
堐 2.0炼Ṇ㳚ⶪ⟜⮵㭼伶⚳䘬䚠⮵⼿↮ 分
set of rules that are known to everyone. Hence,
ȱ
屯㛔ⶪ⟜
㈽屯Ṣ
Ṣ≃⍲ ẩ㤕⭞㔯⊾ a team that gets the ball past the goal keeper
䴻㾇㳣≽ ᾅ嬟␴
㌺⎵

㶙⹎ 䦭㓞
ẩ㤕䭉㱣  ⍲㨇忯 scores a point, while after a number of fouls a
䣦㚫䑘⠫  red card could be issued to disqualify a player.
楁㷗 5 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9 Up to this point, the game sounds fairly simple
㕘≈✉ 6 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8
㖍㛔 7 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7
and transparent for as long as the team manages
杻⚳ 13 87,7 29,8 134,6 75,7 73,6 89,7 to gain entry into the football field.
⎘䀋 23 82,2 18,7 116,9 75,8 73,2 59,9 我們設想有一座足球場，所有符合資格
楔Ἦ大Ṇ 25 77,5 23,0 123,7 73,3 75,8 43,2
ᷕ⚳ 28 79,7 37,7 72,1 48,6 61,4 29,6 的球隊都能獲取資金並把握有利商業機會。
㲘⚳ 36 73,4 15,6 106,4 58,1 62,8 26,6 無疑，一旦取得比賽資格，球隊會按照公
⌘⹎ 38 63,0 33,5 97,1 54,8 64,9 11,5
⌘⯤ 54 63,5 13,8 97,5 32,1 47,6 16,6
認的規則參賽。因此， 只要足球跨過球門線，
崲⋿ 60 43,2 7,6 99,2 32,2 46,5 23,7 球隊就能得分，如果屢次犯規，裁判可將
厚⼳屻 61 60,8 9,9 96,8 38,4 38,9 11,0 不合格球員紅牌罰下。此刻，只要球隊想
資料來源：IESE 商學院
方設法取得參賽資格，比賽就能保持簡單
透明。
屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉IESE ⓮⬠昊
The majority of family owned businesses Asian legislation is seen to be as transparent as
are held privately. Partly, the desire by founders American rules. What about those teams that are trying to
to retain control and confidentiality of family 為吸引投資，發展中市場對稅收優惠措施 gain entry?
fortunes dissuade owners from public listing. 的依賴程度較高。多數國家的稅收因素得 正努力取得參賽資格的球隊情況怎樣呢？
For cash rich families, the incentive becomes 分與美國接近，僅中國除外。亞洲的法律 Again, imagine the gatekeeper is endowed with
even less. As a result of the transition into 體系起碼在名義上與美國的透明度相當。 an enormous influence on how rules for entry
professional management, the impact of the Turning to factors that indicate quality of are interpreted and implemented. Playing by
2008 financial crisis, and the more aggressive implementation – Investor Protection and “local rules”, flexible interpretation allows the
push towards expansion and new businesses, we Governance, Human and Social Development gate-keeper to legislate, interpret and execute
may see changes to this attitude. and Entrepreneurial Culture and Opportunities a decision on who gets in. Inadvertently, this
亞洲多數家族企業均為私有制。部分企 – the ranking of markets start to resemble encourages bidding for that limited slot that

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 Economy 63

allows teams to reap rich

dividends on entry. Thus, if left
unregulated and no recourse is
provided to realistically appeal
any decisions, the highest
bidder tends to gain entry. This
is plain and simple bribery!
我們可以設想，對於准入資
格的闡釋及執行，球場門衛
可發揮重要影響。根據「本
地規矩」 ，球場門衛可靈活闡
釋准入規則，從而決定哪些
球隊能夠入場。這種現狀導
致球隊為取得有限的准入資
格相互競價。因此，如果沒
有有效的監管，且沒有針對
准入決定的切實質疑措施，
競價最高的球隊便獲得准入
資格。這就是顯而易見的賄
賂！
Relating this to private
investments, the costs of
bribery in a corrupt system
tend to outweigh incentives
offered by legislation. Consequently, as entry 會導致官僚體制層級增加，出現相互審查 的裁判類似，選舉誠實正直的領導人但不
fees become prohibitive with worsening 的情況。官僚主義者不怕被人視為掠奪者， 更換球場門衛，等同於繼續維持腐敗的體
corruption, it stands to reason that there 他們會十分自然地推卸責任。顯然，這種 制。在腐敗影響下，越來越多的球隊放棄
will be fewer teams willing to play. Thus, the 做法毫無效益，會給創造經濟價值帶來更 參賽，轉向其他更好的選擇，壟斷者將充
market may appear excessively lucrative for 多官僚體制負擔。 分施加自己的影響力，即使是最好的政治
insiders, while for the majority of investors, an One school of thought suggests that the 領導亦難以發揮作用。
“attractive” market is beyond reach. antidote to corruption is to elect political Therefore, laggards can only hope to attract
如果與私人投資關聯考慮，在腐敗制度 leaders with integrity. The logic appears to go more investors into their field if they change
下的賄賂成本會超出法規提供的鼓勵優惠。 as follows: with honest leaders in government, the mechanics of access – and boot out the
因此，在腐敗日益嚴重的環境下，即使免 they will work towards greater transparency gatekeeper that nurtures corrupt practices.
收准入費，願意參與比賽的球隊仍將不斷 that will eliminate corrupt practices. However, 因此，滯後國家必須改變准入機制，摒
減少。由此看來，儘管市場對入局者而言 without sound policies and effective institutions 棄滋生腐敗的球場門衛制度，這樣才有希
吸引力巨大， 但對多數投資人而言， 這種「吸 that will support and encourage sound business 望吸引更多投資人進入市場。
引力」遙不可及。 practices, integrity alone will hardly unblock Laggards such as VIP and emerging Asia
the capital flows. have their tasks cut out for them. Rather than
Actions for the laggards 有學者認為，選舉正直的政治領導人是 creating more rules to fight corruption, and
滯後國家的措施 解決腐敗的良方。其邏輯思路如下 ：如果 increasing incentives to attract more investors,
Emerging Asia and VIP suffer from this 由誠實正直的領導人組成政府，政府會努 they need to focus on reducing the bureaucratic
malaise. The reaction is to legislate more 力實現更高透明度，從而消除腐敗。不過， burdens of investments. Specifically, they may
rules that in the absence of trust end up with
如沒有理想的政策及高效的行政機構提供 consider the following areas of action:
a system of checks and balances. However,
支援及鼓勵，僅憑正直難以疏通資本流動。 VIP 國家及新興亞洲國家等滯後者面臨
such checks and balances in reality create
layers of bureaucracy checking on each other. If political leaders are seen as having the 亟待完成的任務。這些國家不僅要努力消
Out of fear of being accused of plunder, roles of referees in a football game, electing 除腐敗，提高自身吸引力，還必須重點減
bureaucrats behave in a most natural way – honest leaders without changing the gatekeeper 少官僚體制給投資帶來的負擔。這些國家
pass the buck and cover your backside. In is tantamount to perpetuating an inherently 可考慮在下列領域採取具體措施 ：
plain sight, this is counter-productive and corrupt system. As the number of teams 1. ASEAN capital market integration: ASEAN
adds to bureaucratic burdens that create no dwindles, because corruption drives away as a trading bloc potentially offers greater depth
economic value. competitive teams that have better choices than its individual markets. By allowing shares
這種不利現狀使新興亞洲國家及 VIP 國家 elsewhere, monopolists assert their power and to be freely listed and traded in an ASEAN
飽受其害。應對該問題時，應在非信任前 influence that eventually overcome even the exchange, or cross listing among qualified
提下制定更多法規，形成審查及平衡制度。 best intentioned political leadership. member states, international competition
不過，此類審查及平衡制度在實際操作中 如果說政治領導人的作用與足球比賽中 provides incentives to laggards to shape up

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

64 Economy

because inaction carries greater penalties. 4. 遵守法規 ：簡化法規後，政府可將管治

1. 東盟資本市場整合 ：較之單獨的市場， As a rule of thumb, the 重點放在確保透明及市場經濟的正常運轉
東盟作為貿易區可提供更理想的深度。透
過允許股票在東盟交易所內自由上市並交
incentive to circumvent 之上。

易，或在合資格成員國之間實現跨境上市，
國際競爭可為滯後國家提供改革激勵，因
the rules increases with the US President Ronald Reagan made a useful
distinction between trusting and making a deal
為不作為往往帶來更多負面影響。 degree of complexity work. When Mikhail Gorbachov told Reagan
2. Rationalize bureaucracy: Unlike Hong to trust him during their nuclear weapons
Kong, Singapore and Japan, where the best for investment promotion, licensing and reduction negotiation, Reagan responded –
and the brightest talents are attracted to a incentives may need to be consolidated under Trust but verify!
professional bureaucracy, laggards share one a unified entity. Making bureaucracy serve 美國總統羅納德·里根（Ronald Reagan）
legacy – jobs in bureaucracy are often seen business and its public is a starting point, 用理智的方式區分信任與實現工作完成。
as rewards for political patronage. Without so that business can focus on the tasks that 削減核武器談判期間，Mikhail Gorbachov
professional careers to build on, incentives make business work. As a rule of thumb, the 要求里根總統給予充分信任 ：里根回答道
to stay for even the most patriotic diminish. incentive to circumvent the rules increases －信任你，但必須核實！
Hence, professionalizing the bureaucracy is with the degree of complexity – more so as the To emerge and join the league of global
the first step towards reducing inefficiency and bureaucratic process becomes cumbersome. leaders, laggards need to look beyond political
bureaucratic burdens. 3. 簡化法規 ：如果有多個機構管理投資推 leaders of apparent integrity for deliverance.
2. 合理改革官僚體制 ：香港 , 新加坡及日 廣 , 執照發放及鼓勵措施，應將其整合為 They need to work hard so that investors
本吸引最優秀的人才建立職業化官僚體制， 統一的機構。實現官僚體制為企業及公眾 and bureaucrats can verify that the rule of
滯後國家與之截然不同，這些國家的政府 服務是第一步，這樣企業才能專心開展業 law is alive and well. This is the essence of
職位往往是政治贊助的回報。如果沒有職 務。法規越複雜，企業越傾向於規避法規， transparency.
業發展的基礎，鼓勵留職的措施即使對最 官僚管理流程會成為企業發展的負擔。 對滯後國家而言，要想與全球領先國家
具愛國之心的人士亦毫無作用。因此，職 4. Adhere to the rules: With fewer rules to 同場競技，除依靠正直領導人之外，還有
業化官僚體制是提高效率並減少官僚體制 comply with and police, governance focus 更多工作需要完成。這些國家必須努力改
負擔的第一步。 is on ensuring transparency and the proper 變現狀，使投資人及政府官員能證實法規
3. Simplify rules: Multiple agencies responsible functioning of a market economy. 執行良好。這是透明度的要義所在。|AT|
 Technical Overview of Markets
World Market Performance (Jan 18, 2009)
Country StockChart Current Price
Code
StockChart
USA $spx
Philippines $psec
England $ftse
Japan $nikk
Hong Kong $hsi
China $ssec
(* Red colored Moving Average value presents that prices have fallen below it and may now act out as resistance)
2010: Upward bias to
continue but may have
to deal with a major
correction or two
2009 brought about a prosperous time
in stocks as indices found themselves
rebounding over 50%+ in values since
March lows. But out of the exorbitantly
cheap states to which stocks were cast in
during the first quarter of 2009, this year
should show more modest or tempered
swings in upward action. It is usually the
case that people tend to underestimate
an economic (and stock market)
recovery and end up revising their initial
projections upwards at the latter portion
of the rebound. By this time markets
have pushed up significantly and have
reached fair or extended valuations.
Thus given such a potential situation
of extendedness, it is highly likely that
larger scale corrections may surface
this year to whittle down overbought
and unmitigated upward swings that
markets have already shown into the
last year. So the year of the tiger may be
striped with high selectivity and prone
to scratchy reactions. But take heart
that reactions which could set indices
65
32-day MA 65-day MA Rally high from YTD Performance
‘09 base
1,136 1,119 1,101 72.7% 1.88%
3,106 3,055 3,011 79.6% 1.76%
5,494 5,377 5,299 61.9% 1.51%
10,855 10,338 10,113 56.4% 2.93%
21,460 21,836 22,000 103.6% -1.89%
3,237 3,237 3,102 91.7% -1.22%
back by 8% to 15% would bring about
windows of opportunity for trading buys
– opportunities that were absent in 2009
given its headlong rise to current levels.
The SP500 recovers
50% of its drop… how
much more? Year of
the Tiger
The SP500 managed to recover quite a
bit of its loss in 2009, regaining over 50%
of lost value. But can equities proceed to
cast its recovery in stone – possibly, but This also testifies to the fact the economies
count on a bumpier ride moving forward. have managed to step a little better into
The danger shows itself in weakening the stream of the economic cycle. We may
upward momentum which has surfaced already have seen the worst as the point of
clearly in its weekly MACD readings economic desperation has departed, but
that show some degree of flatness at turnarounds are just beginning to show
current reads. This coupled along with the and clearly many still sway towards being
stretch in price inhibits short term upside cautious and mindful of potential upsets
potential – perhaps looking up a little in economic performance. At such stages
more, possibly grasping for a graceful it may be necessary to slowly proceed
tag of 1,230 (registering a Fibonacci upwards and reinforce upward swings with
61.8% recovery). After which a necessary higher low bases in price as more evidence
reaction may be mandated to chew off of turnarounds and economic catalysts of
overbought readings and effectively sign positive change take root.
on a period of profit taking. It may
be a good idea from now on to
raise protective stops to medium
term moving averages (13 or 26
weeks) to curb outlying risks.
It may be good to factor in that
markets usually need two legs to
stand on. We have seen the first
crunch leading to last year’s first
quarter selling spree… this building
the first leg of market support. But
a second support leg (or second dip)
may be needed, preferably with a
higher low to establish and uphold
a higher base for demand action.
FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
66 Technical Overview of Markets
What is all the chatter
on rates…
With the global economy showing
pockets of recovery, it begs the question
whether interest rates may follow
upwards to control possible lifts in
inflation. Bond Yields have already
moved ahead in advance showing off a
rise in potential rates and demonstrating
investors’ feelings on such potential
increases. As clear as a potential threat
this could be, as it would signal off
the end of the cycle for low rates, its
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010
impending rise may be
subdued and may take
longer to produce outside of
Asia. As sensitive economies
have yet to cement their
economic revival coming
out of the recent global
financial crisis, governments
would not be in any hurry
to raise rates too much to be
a discomfort. It may scare
markets at first (as it brings
many to look into this
threat) but high chances are that a slow A ‘Hold’ is still in effect
pull up in rates should reinstate liquidity
but be prepared for
back to equities after a brief or moderate
corrective move. greater rotation and
reactive gusts
…but inflation (frothed
A Hold is maintained for equities as most
by China) is being global indices do show clear up trends.
watched carefully China and Hong Kong seem to be the
only indices that have drifted sideways
The worry over rates stems from traces of as investors seek more clarity in China’s
inflationary pressure rolling back in. With drive to slow their economy down. Use
economies on the recovery road, demand medium term moving averages (13 to 26-
and liquidity from strong economies week) to mark out protective stops and
(particularly from Asia and China) are hold positions, so long as no untoward
keeping prices of goods elevated. The breaks in support are shown.
CRB or commodity index testifies to this It is quite likely that a high selective
fact as it still shows a clear uptrend with drive may be shown and a greater
prices of basic commodities. And why so? number of stocks may produce higher
Well China has a lot to do with this as its sways in rotational action. This may
economy rides red hot. China’s economy keep investors on their toes and traders
is in overdrive as possible asset bubbles on a wide variety of short term picks. A
and inflation anxieties build, posing a rough road stands ahead so be prepared
“major risk” to global growth. Chinese for some bumpiness. |AT|
property prices for example have risen at
the fastest pace in 1.5 years in December,
with real-estate values in about 70
Chinese cities climbing 7.8% from a
year earlier. In fact the government
found the need to
re-impose a sales
tax on homes sold
within five years
while its central
bank raised the
reserve requirement,
all in an effort to
rein in liquidity
from record lending
without stalling a
recovery. This clearly
will need to be
watched.
 Nikkei 225 (Japan)
ATIR Market Report
67
Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
10,653 10,337 11,500-11,700 12,200

15000

Last 10855.08
High on 08/02/08 13079.37 14000
Average 9510.35
Low on 10/28/08 6994.90
SMAVG on Close (65) 10112.5742 13000
SMAVG on Close (32) 10337.5557
SMAVG on Close (260) 9383.7959
SMAVG on Close (130) 10110.6963 12000 Nikkei climbs to
11000 15-month high
10000
The Nikkei climbed to a new recent
high tagging a new 15-month high.
9000 Its recent break above 10,767 does
raise its target to 11,500 - 11,700.
8000
Unfortunately its stretch upwards
7000 now stands at overbought levels and
may need to show some corrective
MACD on Close (12,26) 230.6720 0 action soon. Moreover momentum
Signal on Close (9) 279.9853
DIFF on Close 10.6867 -500 readings have also slowed which
may allow corrective forces to kick
100
RSI on Close (14) 63.94 in sooner rather than later. It may
50 be more prudent to wait for prices
to close in on short term support
before taking on new positions;
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
support stands closer to 10,650 to
2008 2009 2010
10,330.
Strategy: Hold but be ready for a reactive manoeuvre to fix overbought levels; stop placed at 16-day MA (10,653).
New positions should only be introduced after a short term reaction to heavier support given its overbought condition.

Shanghai Composite (China)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
3,155 3,000 3,306-3,360 3,500

Last 3237.098
High on 08/04/09 3478.010
Average 4000
2584.724
LOw on 11/28/08 1664.925
SMAVG on Close (65) 3190.3726
SMAVG on Close (32) 3220.7607
SMAVG on Close (260) 2767.2239 3500
SMAVG on Close (130) 3118.7710

Shanghai consolidates
3000
sideways
Shanghai’s Composite index
4000
grooved to a consolidating halt
and has shown some heaviness
2000 in resistance. Cascading within a
ranged pattern between 3,360 and
1500
3,000 the index seems to be losing
upward momentum and may yet
100
likely show another reaction closer
MACD on Close (12,26) 6.2363
Signal on Close (9) 5.6463 to support. Weekly chart studies
DIFF on Close 0.5900
-100 also confirm its corrective drive and
RSI on Close (14) 52.37 100 also profess more reactive moves.
50
It would be necessary for prices to
break above 3,360 in order to re-
establish its upward bias.
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009 2010

Strategy: A Sell into Strength is recommended in order to take advantage of prices near resistance. Moreover any
buys should be restricted to after reactive moves closer to support. Preliminary stop should be placed at 3,155.

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

68 ATIR Market Report

Set Index (Thailand)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
730 712 758 800

800
Last 746.89
High on 10/13/09 758.55
Average 569.72 746.89
Low on 11/26/08 380.05 723.69
SMAVG on Close (65) 712.7049 712.70
SMAVG on Close (32) 123.6853 700
689.33
SMAVG on Close (260) 587.9798
SMAVG on Close (130) 689.3254
The Set will have
600
587.98 to test its highs
The Thai Set index continues to
500 climb but it does near its previous
high of 758. Such a resistance may
pose as a problem after several
400 weeks of a climb, as prices seem a
little stretched.
Another matter to worry about is
MACD on Close (12,26) 9.8417 9.8417 upward momentum seems to be
Signal on Close (9) 9.4715 0
0.3702

DIFF on Close 0.3702 lapsing and this may prove to be

-40
quite slippery into the next couple
RSI on Close (14) 64.81 100
64.81
of weeks. Perhaps a higher low
50 reaction closer to short term support
may be necessary to produce a
better foothold for prices.
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009 2010

Strategy: A Hold should be maintained but a tighter stop is mandated at 7.30. If prices break this then expect a
pullback closet to 712 to 689. Only a higher low dip may be proposed for a new buy as the danger of a double top is
present.

Jakarta Composite (Indonesia)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
2,531 2,484 2,772 2,838

Last 2642.548
High on 01/14/10 2661.928 2600
Average 1886.672
LOw on 10/28/08 1089.340 2400
SMAVG on Close (65) 2484.9839
SMAVG on Close (32) 2531.6995
SMAVG on Close (260) 1988.3413 2200
SMAVG on Close (130) 2399.5464

2000 The JCI breaks resistance

1800 but is stretched
1600
Jakarta’s index has come a long way
in almost recovering its entire loss
1400 during the global financial crisis.
But too much of an outstretch may
1200
make the next few weeks a little
1000
harder to propel upwards. Major
resistance by way of previous highs
MACD on Close (12,26) 45.9457
stand between 2,772 and 2,838
Signal on Close (9)
DIFF on Close
39.8238
6.1218
0 and these areas may unleash some
-100
heaviness in supply. Moreover prices
RSI on Close (14) 65.89 100 do show some spread to their short
50
term moving averages and this
highlights the extendedness in its
situation. Momentum readings have
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
also shown some slowdown which
2008 2009 2010 could similarly inhibit short term
upsides.
Strategy: A Hold is also maintained but look to raise profit take stops to recently made reaction lows or its 32-day
MA, currently at 2,531.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 ATIR Market Report 69

KLSE Composite (Malaysia)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
1,274 1,223 1,300 1,370

1300
1297.99
Last 1297.99 1274.91
1268.49
High on 01/15/10 1300.89
Average 1053.35
1223.71
Low on 10/28/08 801.27
SMAVG on Close (65) 1268.4889 1200
SMAVG on Close (32) 1274.9144
SMAVG on Close (260) 1091.2219
SMAVG on Close (130) 1223.7068
1100
1091.22
Malaysia proceeds to
channel up
1000 The KLSE index proceeds with its
channelled advance and maintains
its rising support structure. A
900
channel continues to guide prices
along its advance and maintains
800 its supportive structure above the
32-day moving average, presently
MACD on Close (12,26) 8.4732 at 1,274. Momentum however is flat
8.4732
Signal on Close (9)
DIFF on Close
7.0596
1.4137
0
but its RSI is not overbought nor
-40 is it now showing any divergence
RSI on Close (14) 68.14 100 dangers – this could leave for
more room into a gradual advance.
68.14

50
Upsides are seen closer to 1,300-
1,310.
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009 2010

Strategy: Range Trade the channel or hold as long as the supportive 32-day MA does not break (this support stop is
currently seen at 1,274). Look for profit taking measures only if prices come to reach the proximity of resistance targets
between 1,300-1,310.

PSE Index (Philippines)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
3,055 3,011 3,130 3,250

3200

Last 3106.30
High on 01/15/10 3133.53 3000
Average 2418.76
Low on 10/28/08 1684.75
SMAVG on Close (65) 3011.5525 2800
SMAVG on Close (32) 3055.6462
SMAVG on Close (260) 2479.7664
SMAVG on Close (130) 2880.5713
2600 The PSE rolls upwards
2400 The PSEi rallied to its previous high
and may also have some problems
2200 in handling this resistance. But
the index keeps its upward trend
2000
secure and only a break below
1800
its 65-day Moving Average (MA)
currently at 3,011 or trendline at
1600 3,000 may upset its major uptrend
bias. Standing in the middle of its
MACD on Close (12,26) 23.0215
Signal on Close (9) 16.4684 0 price channel, it may be a good idea
DIFF on Close 6.5532
-100
to wait for a better entry if prices
RSI on Close (14) 59.96 100 can swing back closer to supportive
zones.
50

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009 2010

Strategy: Proceed to Hold or range trade its channel so long as supportive forces can provide lift; but do raise
protective stops to short term averages closer to 3,055.

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

70 ATIR Market Report

Straits Times Index (Singapore)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
2,851 2,691 3,000 3,270

Last 2912.02
High on 01/11/10 2947.08
Average 2243.99 3000
Low on 03/10/09 1455.47 2912.02
2851.50
SMAVG on Close (65) 2781.1162
2781.12
SMAVG on Close (32) 2851.4963
2691.26
SMAVG on Close (260) 2311.5876
SMAVG on Close (130) 2691.2605
2500 The STI breaks through
2311.59 its channels highs
The Singapore Straits Times Index
2000 accelerated upwards but again
may have been too stretched.
Also recovering most of its crisis
1500
period losses, the index is fast
approaching major resistance
zones. Expect some problems
MACD on Close (12,26) 31.7188 closer to 3,000 and if it can
31.7188
Signal on Close (9)
DIFF on Close
34.9674
-3.486
-3.2486
extend to 3,270, as these may
-100
house clear traces of overhanging
RSI on Close (14) 62.18 100 supply. Moreover, this recent
62.18
50 advance drove upwards with a flat
MACD reading – suggesting that
momentum was absent into the
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec drive. This may also call in reactive
2008 2009 2010 choppiness soon to contain any
exaggeration.
Strategy: A Hold to lighten is maintained for the STI. But do raise support stops to 2,851 (its 32-day MA) as a safety
net precaution given its extendedness.

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
21,277 20,987 23,200 24,000

Last 21460.01
24000
High on 11/18/09 23099.57
Average 17689.40
LOw on 10/27/08 10676.29 22000.73
SMAVG on Close (65) 22000.7266 22000
21460.01
4116.57
SMAVG on Close (32) 21835.7559
SMAVG on Close (260) 18266.3984
SMAVG on Close (130) 21277.5762 20000

18266.40
Hang Seng hangs on a
10000
lower high range
16000
The Hang Seng index has
softened its advancing stand to a
14000
consolidating one and currently
12000 hangs on this defensive posture.
Showing lower highs twice in recent
10000 rallies, this airs out some signs of
corrective danger. In fact as its
MACD on Close (12,26) -12.5917
present reactive swing shows that
0
Signal on Close (9)
DIFF on Close
21.4517
-34.0434
-12.5917
a high possibility exists for prices
-1000
to come and test its lows near
RSI on Close (14) 41.66 100 20,987-20,900. This should raise
50
41.66
some lightening concerns. Also its
momentum and RSI readings have
backed off to a degree that shows
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
greater weakness, signifying that
2008 2009 2010 up trending indications have been
whittled down.
Strategy: Look to lighten into rallies and maintain supportive stops at major lows. A break of the 130-day MA
(21,277) could very well attest to a retest if not a possible break of major support.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 ATIR Market Report 71

Kospi (South Korea)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
1,662 1,519 1,723 1,800

1800
Last 1711.78
High on 09/23/09 1723.17
Average 1386.85
Low on 10/27/08 892.16
SMAVG on Close (65) 1632.0201 1600
SMAVG on Close (32) 1662.9279
SMAVG on Close (260) 1443.9521
SMAVG on Close (130) 1613.6421

1400
The Kospi to test major
resistance
The Kospi continues to climb toward
1200
its previously made high after
breaking through its downward
channel. The MACD warns of a
1000
correction or consolidation as it
crosses down and attempts to
flatten off. Its moves within the
MACD on Close (12,26) 17.0420
next week or two should produce
Signal on Close (9)
DIFF on Close
17.5927
-0.5507
0
a decisive track to resound or react
-200 to its resistance and offer greater
RSI on Close (14) 62.58 100 clarity to our potential action.
50 Given that other indices show the
same condition and vulnerability
to supply, be quite ready to react
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec in case a corrective move proves
2008 2009 2010 resistance solid.

Strategy: A Hold is raised as long as support at 1,662 is not broken. Take profits if its support stop is breached looking
for a reaction to mid-level or major support (1,600 to 1,519).

All Ordinaries Index (Australia)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
4,797 4,600 5,000 5,150

6000

Last 4936.10
High on 09/02/08 5250.40
Average 4129.24 5500
LOw on 03/10/09 3090.80
SMAVG on Close (65) 4758.6401
SMAVG on Close (32) 4797.1499
SMAVG on Close (260) 4116.5718 5000
SMAVG on Close (130) 4607.2886 4936.10
4797.15

Australia keeps to its

4758.64

4607.29
4500
rising channel
4116.57
4000 The All Ordinaries index climbs
toward the higher end of its channel.
3500
Prices have bounced from the 4,510
level and may now look to retest
its recent high as no overbought
3000
conditions exist to stop it from
doing so. However, momentum
MACD on Close (12,26) 57.8366
57.8366
1.4412 seems to be waning as it crosses
Signal on Close (9) 56.3954
DIFF on Close 1.4412 down, so prices may be contained
-200
below its resistance of 5,000. Refrain
100
RSI on Close (14) 62.75 from buying after prices stage a new
62.75
50 recent high as these are likely traps
to produce short term highs.
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009 2010

Strategy: A Hold or range trade strategy is still offered looking at some lightening closer to the previous high near
4,900. So use rallies near its recent highs as a window to profit take and estimate buy-backs closer to support of 4,797
to 4,600.

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

72 ATIR Market Report

Dow Jones Industrials (US)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
10,493 10,000 11,000 11,790

13000

Last 10609.65
High on 09/02/08 11790.17
Average 9105.34 12000
Low on 03/06/09 6469.95
SMAVG on Close (65) 10303.5869
SMAVG on Close (32) 10493.2090 11000
SMAVG on Close (260)
The Dow paces with its
8951.7100
SMAVG on Close (130) 9855.7490

10000 uptrend channel

The Dow Jones Industrials continues
9000
to trade within the uptrend channel;
momentum has not risen to back
8000
up its drive. This may pose as a
7000
short term problem and may
provide another excuse to show a
reaction. Weekly chart studies still
MACD on Close (12,26) 79.3338 show momentum to be waning
0
Signal on Close (9)
DIFF on Close
77.3579
1.9759
and that RSI signals do caution
-500 that medium term overbought
RSI on Close (14) 56.67 100 signals persist. This should keep the
50 range trade option open; being too
aggressive at the moment may not
be the right tactic in such extended
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec circumstances.
2008 2009 2010

Strategy: Proceed to range trade its channel boundaries and raise support stops to recently made lows (perhaps the
32-day MA 10,493 can now be a short term gauge).

NASDAQ (US)
Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
2,246 2,192 2,310 2,417

Last 2287.99
High on 08/22/08 2417.63 2400
Average 1846.78
Low on 03/09/09 1265.52
SMAVG on Close (65) 2192.9146
SMAVG on Close (32) 2246.7498
2200
SMAVG on Close (260) 1864.6907
SMAVG on Close (130) 2109.1458
2000

NASDAQ keeps to the

1800 return-line
The NASDAQ stays along the bands
1600
of its rising channel, but now finds
itself at the higher end. Momentum
1400
has been lost as seen by its MACD
and RSI, telling us that a correction
1200
back to the lower end of its pattern
may be seen. Keep track of short
MACD on Close (12,26)
Signal on Close (9)
27.9939
31.3447 0 term support columns as a high
MACD2 on Close -3.3508 chance for a reaction may be shown
-100
into the next couple of days. Allow
RSI on Close (14) 55.79 100
prices to ease and show a higher low
50
base before looking to reposition.

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009 2010

Strategy: Proceed to range trade its weekly channel boundaries, perhaps taking some profits at this point then
looking for buying support near short (2,246) to medium (2,192) term averages.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

 ATIR Market Report 73

S&P 500 (US)

Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
1,119 1,100 1,200 1,303

6000
Last 1136.03
High on 09/02/08 1303.04
Average 969.52
5500
Low on 03/06/09 666.79
SMAVG on Close (65) 1101.3971
SMAVG on Close (32) 1119.8438
5000
SMAVG on Close (260) 955.5967

The SP500 maintains its

SMAVG on Close (130) 1059.0073
4500

ranged recovery
4000
The SP500 has groomed into a less
3500 forceful advance but proceeds to
follow a channel range. Quite similar
3500 to the Dow, the index has recently
swung to a new recent high but its
3000
channel has kept prices quite limited
in its upward scope. Momentum
MACD on Close (12,26) 10.5776 has also been range-bound and
0
Signal on Close (9)
DIFF on Close
10.5482
0.0295
boasting of only brief advances in
-50
resonance to its boundaries. RSI
RSI on Close (14) 56.11 100 and Stochastics readings also show
50 range high readings which should
keep the channel range quite solidly
intact for the time being. Weekly
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec studies also show a slowdown in
2008 2009 2010 upward momentum, this adding to
the advisement of prudence over
Strategy: A Hold or range trade is issued – looking for entries into pullbacks or dips that effect some narrowing in aggressiveness.
present overbought levels. A buy back closer to support zones is preferred looking between 1,119 and 1,100.

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT