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Hello from Hong Kong and here are the headline news
* Barrons Online posted a report that shares of Chinas
Alibaba could fall more than 50%
* Federal Reserve is set to announce the rate decision this
Thursday
* Jeremy Corbyn wins by landslide as the new leader of UK
Labour Party.
* Poland's finance minister Mateusz Szczurek said Euro is no
longer attractive
* No ones looking but we are edging closer to Greek elections
Barrons Online has published a report that Alibaba, Chinese
Internet giants stock has been plunging amid an array of
problems and it expects more trouble ahead. Alibaba, which
trades on the NYSE and sports a market value of $160bn, still
has plenty of fans. But it is time to get real. A decline of up to
50% looks far more likely. Alibaba shares trade at about 25
times the consensus earnings estimate for the year ahead, and
that should be closer to eBay s multiple of 15. Fresh selling
pressure on the stock could emerge later this month when
Alibabas final IPO lockup expires. Some 1.6 billion of its 2.5
billion shares will be available for sale for the first time.
Perhaps more troubling is the seeming improbability of the
growth numbers reported by the company over the three fiscal
years ending in March. Consider this: Alibaba claims to have
367 million usersabout the same as one government
agencys estimate of Chinas entire online-shopping
population. Or this: Alibaba claims its average shopper spends
26% more on its sites each year than the average U.S. online
shopper spends on all sites. Does that make any sense, given
American consumers far greater affluence and ability to avail
themselves of a vastly more developed e-commerce
ecosystem? Barrons Online report see on page 18.
The Fed Res is set to announce the decision from one of its
most anticipated policy-setting meetings of the year. Most
central banks have said it might be better for the Fed to get on
and raise rates than continue with destabilising uncertainty.
Market pricing suggests there is just a 28% chance of a rate
hike by FOMC. Financial Times said tightening policy at this
stage would not be ridiculous but core inflation has remained
below the Feds 2% and so, critically, have expectations of
inflation years into the future. Fed should not feel the need to
spend time with inflation above the target to counterbalance
the time spent below it, but such a persistent undershoot does
argue for caution in believing that the price level is suddenly
set to accelerate. Furthermore, the hurried movement by
China to allow the renminbi to weaken has raised fears both of
general weakening in global demand and of the quality of
leadership. Similarly, in The Sunday Telegraph, economists
say that the Fed Res will keep its rates on hold this Thursday,
but that Chairwoman Janet Yellen is expected to sound
hawkish, signalling that a rate rise will arrive before the end
of the year, reflecting a continued improvement in the labour
market and recent growth data. Barrons Online said this will
be a close call. If a rate hike was imminent, Fed officials would
have signaled it, the bond market would have priced it in, and
markets would remain calm when it was announced.
Mohamed El-Erian has put odds against a hike at an almost
absurd 51-49. What happens if the Fed does hike rates?
Markets could get ugly fast. Rates at the short end would rise
sharply, and riskier assetsjunk bonds and investment-grade
corporate bondswould get hit, and stocks, too. Theres a
chance longer term Treasuries might hold up better since they
are priced off inflation expectations, which would tumble.
Barrons Online agrees, a big reaction wwill depend on the
language in the Feds statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellens
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
News on Britain
Eurozone offers olive branch to UK
Taken from the FT Sunday, 13 September 2015
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
into
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
Jeremy Warner
A German 'racket' that shows no sign of
abating
Taken from the Sunday Telegraph 13 September 2015
Germany has taken over from China as the big "sinner" in the
global economy
With characteristic lack of tact, Nicolas Ridley, a long standing
member of the Thatcher cabinet, once described the European
Union as just a Germany racket. In the subsequent fall-out,
he lost his job. Such are the penalties of speaking the truth.
Another record in the German trade surplus, announced last
week even as Britain reported a further deterioration in its
almost equally jaw dropping deficit, somewhat confirms Mr
Ridleys observation.
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has played a blinder
by offering to take Syrian refugees in their hundreds of
thousands.
Widely blamed for the macro-economic imbalances at the
heart of the eurozone crisis, and the wrong headed, not to say
vindictive, policy response to it, shes at a stroke managed to
turn the tables and assume the moral high ground. Germany
has rebranded itself a warm, cuddly, welcoming and
compassionate nation.
And no doubt on many levels it is. However, when it comes to
the global economy, it is increasingly hard to see this
European superpower as a benevolent force.
In July, Germany recorded a record 25bn trade surplus, with
exports surging 6.3pc. Some would see this as a mark of
competitive success, as indeed Germans are prone to argue.
Germany makes great products that lots of people want to
buy. But this success is enormously assisted by the fact that
Germany shares a currency with 18 others.
The upshot is that Germanys inflation adjusted exchange rate
may be undervalued by anything up to 40 per cent, making its
products very much more competitive than otherwise.
Admittedly, the trade surplus with other eurozone nations has
declined somewhat since the onset of the crisis, but this is
largely due to the depression like conditions that eurozone
policy has imposed on much of the region, causing imports to
collapse in the afflicted nations.
The imbalances are still basically there.
As for the current account surplus with the rest of the world,
Germany has taken over where China left off. It used to be
China that kept its exchange rate undervalued to promote
exports.
Germany now finds itself accused of the same mercantalism,
with a current account balance of 7.6 per cent of GDP last
year, forecast by the IMF to rise to an awesome 8.4 per cent in
2015.
The European Commission has got rules the so-called
Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure to deal with
persistent offenders, but somehow they never get
implemented with quite the same vigour applied to member
states that disobey German inspired fiscal disciplines.
Theres a shameful asymmetry in the EUs approach. Germany
insists that everyone else stays in line, but is strangely
uncompliant on its own side of the bargain. And they wonder
why the EU is seen as a German racket.
(Full article click - Telegraph)
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These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
Greek News
Eurozone waits for elections, rules out
renegotiation
Taken from the Kathimerini 13 September 2015
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
News Americas
FT View: Homegrown reasons for the US
Fed to stay put on interest
Taken from the FT Saturday 12 September 2015
near normality, yet rates remain near zero. But after so long
with no serious signs of inflation, there is no compulsion to
move now. The Fed should sit on its hands next week.
(Full article click - FT)
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These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday begins a twoday Federal Open Market Committee meeting, during which it
is to make a decision on whether interest rates need to be
raised for the first time in nine years.
If the Fed carries out an immediate hike, Japanese stocks
could fall and the yen could strengthen because market
players would not have fully taken into account any such
move.
The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, starts a two-day monetary
policy meeting on Monday. It will try to glean what the Fed
committee will do later in the week as well as carefully
consider how the recent volatility in global financial markets
will affect Japan's economy.
Speculation among market participants that the Fed will raise
interest rates this month is fading. An index that gauges the
likeliness of the Fed taking immediate action shows the odds
of this at 20% to 30%.
Either way, markets around the world will react.
If the Fed decides to raise interest rates this month, it would
convince investors to avoid stock market risk, especially with
global stock prices already swinging so wildly from day to day,
mostly in reaction to the market volatility in China.
"The Nikkei Stock Average would slip to the 17,000 level," said
a senior representative of Dai-ichi Life Insurance. The index
closed Friday at 18,264.22.
But experts are split on what direction the yen would take.
Minori Uchida, an analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
UFJ, said the yen would strengthen by 2 against the dollar if
stock investors become risk-averse.
Tohru Sasaki of JP Morgan Chase Bank, however, said a U.S.
interest rate hike would weaken the yen to 124 against the
dollar. On Friday, it took about 120.5 yen to buy a dollar.
The Fed could also decide not to immediately raise interest
rates but announce that it will do so before the end of the year.
This would positively affect Tokyo stocks; it would show that
the Fed is heeding the global turmoil while also showing
confidence in the U.S. economy.
Akio Yoshino, chief economist at Amundi Japan, said that in
this case, Tokyo would become a destination market and the
Nikkei average would climb to the 20,000 level.
(Full article click - Nikkei)
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These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
is now a stage prop or that the real work of raising rates will
be done outside the limelight by its new tools.
Mission Control
On weekdays at about 12:45 p.m., the New York Feds trading
portal, known as FedTrade, plays three musical notes F-E-D
signaling that Mr. Potters shop is open for business. So
begins another day of training camp, another test of the Feds
plans to borrow money from nonbank financial companies.
The Feds traders sit at terminals in a converted conference
room. Along one wall are five chairs and five sets of computer
monitors beneath five historical photographs of the trading
desk: men answering phones, men writing bids in chalk on a
long board and, in the most recent photograph, from the
1980s, a glimpse of a woman in the background. On another
wall is a screen that links the room in New York by
videoconference with a backup trading room at the Chicago
Fed.
Potential lenders a preapproved group of 168, including a
bevy of money market funds and the housing finance
companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have 30 minutes
to offer the Fed up to $30 billion each. At 1:13 p.m., a warning
message starts blinking red. At 1:15 p.m., the Fed closes the
auction and accepts up to $300 billion in loans at an interest
rate of 0.05 percent.
During two years of experiments, the Fed team has adjusted
the rates it pays, the amounts it accepts and the time it enters
the market, among other variables. Mr. Potter and his
lieutenants have also held lunch meetings with investors on
the other side of the portal to solicit advice and complaints.
The size of the program poses the most obvious risk. Fed
officials limited daily borrowing to $300 billion because they
didnt want to freeze more money than necessary. They also
worry about exacerbating market downturns by giving
investors a new place to flee. These concerns were heightened
by reports that some investment companies were interested in
creating money market funds that would be advertised as the
safest place to park money because the money would be
parked at the Fed.
Last year, at the end of September, shortly after the cap was
imposed, lenders offered the Fed $407 billion on a single day.
Demand was so high that instead of asking for interest, some
lenders offered to pay the Fed to take the money. The Fed
ended up borrowing at zero percent and turning away $107
billion in loans.
A cardinal rule of central banking is that you dont starve
financial markets during panics, and the Fed has been leaning
in the direction of doing more. It has already announced that
it is willing to borrow at least $200 billion through a parallel
program at the end of September this year, for a total of $500
billion. It has also suggested that it may raise the cap during
liftoff. My sense is were better off making sure we can
maintain control, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis
Fed, said in a recent interview.
Unpredictable Reactions
This is where the nutty people on the bond-trading desks
have control, joked Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman,
when asked if the Feds plan would work.
Mr. Blinders point was that markets ultimately determined
the cost of borrowing money, particularly for longer-term
loans like mortgages and corporate bonds. The Fed can be
precise in its planning, but the market is unpredictable in its
reactions.
Fed officials have emphasized that they do not want the liftoff
to surprise investors. This has probably been the most
telegraphed 25-point rate hike in history, said Wayne
Schmidt, chief investment officer at Gradient Investments in
Arden Hills, Minn. I think when they actually do something,
it will be more of a nonevent.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
But there are at least three reasons markets are becoming less
predictable.
The rise of an interconnected global financial system has
weakened the Feds influence over interest rates. When the
Fed last raised short-term rates, beginning in 2004, officials
were surprised that long-term rates failed to rise because
foreign money was pouring into the housing market and other
domestic investments. This time, there are plenty of warnings
that the weaknesses of other developed economies could once
again make it harder for the Fed to raise domestic interest
rates.
Financial market conditions have come to depend
increasingly not only on developments at home but also on
developments abroad, William C. Dudley, the president of
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in a February
speech in which he cautioned the Feds control over those
conditions had been loosened.
The Feds audience also increasingly consists of computer
programs that will start buying and selling securities before
people have time to read the first words of the Feds policy
statement, creating the potential for new kinds of chaos.
On Oct. 15, for example, automated trading programs drove
up the price of 10-year Treasuries in a burst of buying so
intense that a government report later found the machines
bought more than 10 percent of the securities from their own
firms. Then, just as quickly, the computers turned around and
drove prices back down.
The 12-minute spree was among the largest price movements
ever seen in one of the worlds most liquid markets, yet the
government report found no clear cause.
Finally, investors say regulatory changes are keeping some
large traders on the sidelines, making it harder to buy and sell,
even in the highly liquid market for Treasuries. That can
exacerbate market movements because when people are in a
hurry to buy or sell, they tend to chase the best available
offers. The depth of the market is not what it used to be, said
Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer for fixed income at TCW,
a Los Angeles investment firm that manages some of the
worlds largest bond funds. You can get the same trades done,
but it takes more time.
Other observers, however, urge a broader perspective.
People are very concerned about those 12 minutes last year,
said Mr. Cecchetti, now a professor of finance at the Brandeis
International Business School. Im very reassured by the fact
that there were only 12 minutes.
Moreover, Mr. Cecchetti said that removing some liquidity
was a good thing because much of that liquidity was a result of
public subsidies for the banking system that had encouraged
undue risk-taking.
Does it mean that theres going to be more high-frequency
volatility? Sure, he said. It means the Simon Potters of the
world are going to have to be much more careful about what
theyre doing. But that seems to me to be kind of O.K.
Volckers Messy Lesson
Mr. Potter has worked at the New York Fed since the late
1990s, but he spent most of his career there in the research
department before taking over the markets desk in 2012. He
became more involved in the practical side of the Feds work
during the financial crisis. In a 2012 speech at New York
University, Mr. Potter said the experience particularly
during a four-week period at the peak of the crisis had
impressed upon him the limits of theory, the need to
understand what investors are thinking and the value of
flexibility in policy making.
For economists who did not have the opportunity to observe
the panic up close as I and most of my colleagues had, the
developments in this four-week period must have been
bewildering, given how widely events on the ground and
theory diverged, he said.
That perspective may come in handy. The last time the Fed
shifted the basic mechanics of monetary policy was in the
early 1980s, when Paul Volcker was its chairman. That
campaign is remembered as a triumph of central banking. Mr.
Volcker succeeded in driving inflation down toward modern
levels, ending a long period in which governments had
floundered helplessly to prevent rising prices.
But Mr. Faust, the Johns Hopkins economist, says the
messiness of Mr. Volckers triumph is often overlooked. The
Feds initial plans did not work and were revised and did not
work and were revised again and still didnt work.
He said the Volcker episode was a reminder that monetary
policy is not figure skating. The Fed is likely to flail, he says,
but it will be measured by its success in getting interest rates
to rise, not by the grace of its performance.
If youre into the internal plumbing, I suspect there will be
times when that looks messy because this is new, Mr. Faust
said. But central banks can raise interest rates, and they will.
And as long as that happens, from the standpoint of the
broader economy, everything is fine and the rest will be
forgotten or become a footnote of history.
(Full article click - NYT)
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These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
But for the last year, however, markets have been bracing for
Fed action, and the Fed has made clear rate hikes are coming.
The questions about when, and why, still remain stubbornly
out of reach.
(Full article click - BI)
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These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
News Asia
Alibaba: Why It Could Fall 50% Further
Taken from the Barrons Online Sunday, 13 September 2015
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.
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These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.