Volume 6, Issue 7

September 11, 2015

CONSERVATIVES HQ SENT INTO A TAILSPIN;

LIBERALS GAIN MORE SUPPORT
For more information about any of the issues discussed below please contact Adam Daifallah, at (514) 316-7089
or at adaifallah@hatleystrategies.com.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Halfway through the campaign, the parties shift into high gear
Parties still in a three-way tie with the NDP slightly ahead
Next weeks debate on the economy a must-watch for Canadians

ANALYSIS
When people say politics leaves a bad taste in their mouths, they dont usually mean it literally.
This week, however, got off on a bit of an awkward start. Conservative candidate Jerry Bance was forced to end his
bid for office after it was revealed that he was once caught urinating into a clients coffee mug. A CBC hidden
camera filmed the service technician as part of an investigation on appliance repair companies. Another
Conservative Toronto-area candidate, Tim Dutaud, also stepped down after online videos were discovered of him
conducting prank phone calls and making inappropriate comments about people with disabilities. The Tories are
not the only party in image control. Shawn Dearn, the communications director for NDP leader Thomas Mulcair,
also made apologies this week after an old tweet was discovered in which he made derogatory comments towards
Pope Benedict XVI. More than ever, candidates and staff are learning to what extent their past activity on the
internet can come back to haunt them. Several Liberal candidates have also gone under fire after sexist and
offensive tweets were uncovered, one of those candidates dropped out. Expect more controversies like this
emerge in the next few weeks as grassroots activists scour the internet records of more candidates and staffers.

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September 11, 2015

These Conservative outliers are causing problems at HQ. It is being reported that Jenni Byrne is bearing the greatest
blunt of Stephen Harpers anger over the two embarrassing candidates. Sources say she is being blamed for not
properly vetting potential candidates to avoid these types of incidents. Byrne, a long time Tory advisor and
strategist, has been sent back to Ottawa and is now off the Harper campaign bus.
There is one man who hopes to rescue the Conservative party in this time of crisis. International political strategist
Lynton Crosby has been recruited to get the Tories message back on track. Nicknamed the Wizard of Oz, Crosby
worked on the 2001 campaign for former Australian Prime Minister John Howard, he helped Boris Johnson win the
mayoral race in London twice, and he recently helped David Cameron win a majority government in the UK. The
Conservatives hope Crosby can lend them a helping hand on the refugee crisis in Syria and on domestic issues as
well. The Conservatives are not the first party to reach for international help. In 2012 the Liberal Party consulted
with David Axlerod a longtime consultant with the Democratic Party who helped Barack Obamas reach the
presidency on how to win elections using U.S.-style campaign tactics.
With Labour Day now in the rearview mirror, the parties have shifted into high gear with their announcements.
They will spend the remaining half of the campaign making their case to Canadians, and especially those undecided
voters who may not have given much attention to the election until summer ended. The parties are still stuck in a
statistical three-way tie, with small variations in the polls this week. Earlier, it seemed as though the Liberals had
surpassed the NDP for the first time since the writ dropped. But new polls on Friday suggest that may have been an
exaggeration, with the Liberals in second, Tories a close third, and the NDP in first.
Here is what each party leader announced this week.

Stephen Harper
Support for education. Harper promised to increase the amount that is given to low and middle income
families for education. This promise involves doubling the federal contribution to additional Canada
Education Savings Grants.
Cut to payroll taxes. Harper reaffirmed his commitment to cut payroll taxes by 20% in 2017 after Justin
Trudeau announced he would lessen those cuts.
Armed Forces base in the North. Harper announced plans to create a Canadian Armed Forces reserve unit
in Yukon, used to enhance the Arctic operations capacity" and providing "specialized emergency
response capacity.
Subsidizing the lobster industry. Harper pledged $20 million over three years to support the lobster
industry. The money will go to market the crustacean around the world and pay for new research.

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September 11, 2015

Thomas Mulcair
End the mission against ISIS. Mulcair said one of his first moves as prime minister would be to end the
military fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Rather than the current international bombing
campaign, he said he would make more room for peace.
Boost to the aerospace industry. Mulcair is promising to set up a $160 million fund over four years to help
small and medium sized aerospace companies compete on the global market with new technologies and
increased production.
Support for the automotive industry. Mulcair is hoping to bring back jobs to the automotive industry in
Canada and protect the industry on the international stage. He promised to increase the federal
automotive supplier innovation program by $90 million more over five years.
Corporate tax hikes. Mulcair is promising that he will only reasonably raise corporate taxes to bring in
billions of dollars that would balance the budget, but reduce taxes for small and medium sized businesses
within his first year in office.
Platform cost estimates. How much will the NDPs vast number of promises cost? Mulcair says that the
exact accounting will be available next week.

Justin Trudeau
More spending on transportation. Trudeau announced that he would earmark an extra $20 billion to
improve transit infrastructure over the next decade across the country. He did no elaborate on how the
federal government would pay for this increase.
A national housing strategy. Trudeau will invest in affordable housing and seniors homes. He will
introduce new tax incentives for landlords in an effort to increase the amount of rental units available to
those who need it.
Overhaul employment insurance. Trudeau said he would make it easier for the unemployed to collect
their welfare benefits and reverse changes made by the Harper government. Trudeau also said that he
would cut EI premiums like Stephen Harper, but by a less drastic amount. Dan Kelly of the Canadian
Federation of Independent Business criticized this move, saying EI premiums amount to a harmful tax on
businesses trying to create jobs.
An end to PMO control. Trudeau announced that as prime minister, he would loosen the tight grip of the
Prime Ministers Office around caucus. This centralization, whereby MPs lose much of their autonomy,
began under his father Pierre Elliot Trudeau.
The second election debate will take place next Thursday at 8 pm and will be hosted by Google Canada, the Globe
and Mail, and CPAC. The debate will focus exclusively on the economy, an area of concern for many voters. It will
be live-streamed online by the Globe, it will be broadcast on CPAC TV.
The next debate after that is scheduled for September 28 and will be hosted by the Aurea Foundation, which runs
the popular Munk Debates. The debate will focus exclusively on foreign policy, an area of great interest in recent

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September 11, 2015

weeks. This week, however, the Liberal Party threatened to pull out of the debate if ticket prices to the live event
were not lowered and if there wasnt an effort to make the debate more bilingual. If Trudeau is a no-show, Harper
and Mulcair will battle it out alone, likely to their advantages.

THE QUEBEC ANGLE

Despite the lack of policy change on the federal front, the government of Quebec said that it wants to take in more
Syrian refugees. Quebecs minister of immigration said the province wants to take in an additional 2,450 refugees
in 2015, bringing the total yearly quota to 3,650. Only 651 Syrians have been brought to the province so far this
year. Despite this wish, the province will still need approval from the federal government before moving forward.
Premier Philippe Couillard has avoided commenting on the federal campaign thus far and has remained neutral on
who he would prefer at the helm in Ottawa.

For any additional questions please contact: Adam Daifallah, Partner

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