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2009 ONLINE ADVERTISING MARKET REPORT

Q4: EMERGING TRENDS & OUTLOOK

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Table of Contents

State of the Market .............................................................................................................1 - 5


Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................... 5 - 6
Premium Publishers: Optimizing Inventory Value .................................................... 6 - 11
Demand Side: The Year Ahead ..................................................................................... 11 - 15
The Tipping Point for Mobile, Video … and Maybe, Regulation ........................... 16 - 21
Thoughts for the Future ....................................................................................................... 21
About the Rubicon Project ................................................................................................ 22
Footnote Index .............................................................................................................. 23 - 25
MARKET REPORT
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State of the Market

Money, money, money. If there was an overarching theme for the fourth quarter of
2009 in the online advertising market, it was money. E-tailers were consumed with
the task of trying to get consumers to spend more money online. Advertisers were
figuring out where and how to spend their dollars most effectively over the course
of the coming year. And media buyers were scrambling to spend the budget
surplus – a.k.a. “scatter” campaigns – clients had been accruing since the start of
the year.

Holiday Spending

In terms of e-commerce, Q409 turned out slightly better than analysts and
forecasters expected. Between November 1st and December 31st, online shoppers
spent $29.1 billion, according to comScore.1 That’s up 4 percent vs. 2008. “Cyber
Monday” sales were up 5 percent, and the industry came close to its first near
billion-dollar day, with spending on December 15th topping $913 million.
MARKET REPORT

Meanwhile, big retail brands like Kmart diverted dollars typically spent on TV,
print and radio ads to the web. Mark Snyder, Kmart’s CMO, told Adweek that the
company’s online holiday budget had increased “exponentially” at the expense
of print circulars.2 Kmart spent the money on custom sponsorships of online
communities like Yahoo Shine instead – to better reach shoppers that “love to find
and share information,” Snyder said.

A survey from the National Retail Foundation (NRF) and BIGresearch found that
nearly half (47 percent) of retailers said they would increase their use of social
media for the holidays, because it was “more cost-effective” than traditional
advertising.3 Of course, there was OfficeMax’s requisite “Elf Yourself” pitch,
but Best Buy and Kohl’s also launched games, giveaways and cartoons across
Facebook, Twitter and various niche blogs.4

While this spending shift might seem worrisome to some premium pubs fearing
a loss of these new dollars to the portals, the results we saw in Q4 told a very
different story.

1 Source: comScore, January 2010


2 Source: Adweek, November 2009
3 Source: NRF, October 2009
4 Source: MarketingVox, November 2009

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The Rubicon 20 Index Increases by 34 Percent

The surplus budget signals that marketers were being extremely cautious – UBS
research analyst Michael Morris called their budget cuts “overzealous”5 – in early
2009. That means there was room for them to spend in a way that went above
and beyond typical holiday seasonality. And did they, as the Rubicon 20 Index
demonstrates.

The Rubicon 20 Index is our proprietary market performance metric that


tracks CPM prices and revenue across 20 of the Web’s top publishers (excluding
portals.) An examination of CPMs showed Q4 was up 34 percent vs. Q3. Some of
the increase was seasonal – as it’s normal for retail advertisers, in particular, to
earmark higher budgets in order to lure holiday shoppers – but a general increase
in optimism around growth across the US economy seems to have sent prices
upward above and beyond seasonal expectations.

“A confluence of factors impacted prices and CPMs in the fourth quarter, including
but not limited to the usual spend aimed at spurring consumer holiday spending,”
said Kara Weber, the Rubicon Project’s VP of Marketing. “Audience targeted buys
MARKET REPORT

were a key driver of increased CPMs in the quarter; these buys, rates for which
ran four times those paid for more standard content and site targeted buys,
pushed revenue north for many premium sites. In addition, major news events,
especially around celebrity activities, drove consumers online in record numbers,
and advertisers followed.”

5 Source: MediaBuyerPlanner, October 2009

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MARKET REPORT

Investments and Acquisitions

VCs and strategic investors also had some unspent money to burn by Q4, as they
funneled $143 million into 13 companies in the ad networks, exchanges and online
targeting sector.6 First, a look at the ad networks and exchanges, where total
investments reached $69 million:

Most buzzworthy was publisher and ad network Complex Media, which spun off
from parent company, Marc Ecko Enterprises, with $12.8 million in funding from
Austin Ventures and Accel Partners.7 Geotargeting ad network 1020 Placecast
raised $5 million from Quatrex Capital,8 and RocketFuel, the ad network aimed at
luring in “premium” brands, also raised $2.8 million.9 But a look at the numbers
over time reveals that investor interest in pure-play, volume-driven ad networks

6 Source: Petsky Prunier, January 2010


7 Source: paidContent, December 2009
8 Source: gigaOm, November 2009
9 Source: paidContent, December 2009

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has waned. The total dollar amount invested in ad nets in Q4 was down nearly 57
percent from Q3, and down by half vs. Q408.

So where is the money headed? Toward online targeting and optimization, where
investors spent $74 million in Q4. Notable recipients included data-driven ad and
content targeter, Adchemy, which raised $31 million from a group of investors
including tech consulting firm, Accenture.10 Behavioral targeter AudienceScience
also raised $20 million from Mohr, Davidow Ventures, Mayfield Fund, and others.11
Investments into targeting and optimization companies – a nascent category –
more than doubled vs. Q3.

The Year that Was, and Where We’re Headed

Though a number of media agency forecasts and financial analyst notes


purported that the market had finally bottomed out by mid-Q3, it became clear in
Q4 that the online publishing landscape would look very different in 2010 than it
did in 2009.
MARKET REPORT

Take the four major business publications (print and online) as an example: Conde
Nast’s Portfolio, Time Inc.’s Fortune, Forbes and BusinessWeek. Conde Nast shut
down Portfolio in May; it sold Portfolio.com to American City Business Journals a
few months later, but the site currently exists as “a shell of its former self.”12

Bloomberg acquired BusinessWeek in October, in a deal worth just $5.9 million


after taxes.13 The company then laid off roughly 100 staffers – including high-
profile columnists and editors like Jon Fine, Steve Wildstrom and Lauren Young.14
Bloomberg also pulled the plug on bi-weekly sibling Smallbiz, in favor of driving
traffic to the Small Business Channel on Businessweek.com.15

Later that month, Forbes shut down its L.A. and London bureaus, and laid off at
least 50 staff.16 Then, in November, an undisclosed number of Fortune staffers
(including the entire staff of AmEx-owned Fortune Small Business17) were let go

10 Source: The New York Times, October 2009


11 Source: AudienceScience, October 2009
12 Source: New York Observer, May 2009
13 Source: MediaMemo, October 2009
14 Source: TalkingBizNews, November 2009
15 Source: PR Newswire, December 2009
16 Source: Gawker, October 2009
17 Source: Fishbowl NYC, November 2009

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as part of Time, Inc.’s round of around 500 layoffs. Other cutbacks included the
Washington Post (which closed its bureaus in L.A., New York and Chicago18) and
the Associated Press.19

Meanwhile, big deals like Comcast’s proposed acquisition of NBCU for $30 billion,20
Google’s $750 million play for mobile ad network AdMob21 and AOL’s declaration
of independence from Time Warner were further signs of a very different media
environment in 2010, one where technology and digital properties would play a
larger role than ever.

The Comcast/NBCU deal exemplifies the push toward more cross-platform media
services and securing paying content subscribers. Imagine the addressable ad-
targeting capabilities Comcast could have once NBCU’s full roster of on- and
offline content is part of its portfolio. The Google/AdMob deal shines a huge
spotlight on mobile advertising and the growing variety of mobile inventory.
Others will be watching AOL post spin-off to see whether a company can be a
successful premium content publisher and operate multiple ad networks at the
same time.
MARKET REPORT

In this report, we focus on some of the impacts of these trends as they pertain
to both publishers and their demand partners (ad networks, data exchanges and
even bidding platforms from media agencies).

Key Takeaways
• Premium Publishers: Optimizing Inventory Value

Display is poised to rebound big in 2010, but for publishers to fully capture that
spend, they’ll need to shift from thinking about their sites purely in terms of
inventory, and focus more on selling audience. Expect a renewed interest in
creating pricing controls – either through the use of tech platforms, or through
forming publisher “coalitions”— as a means to ensure that publishers have the
ability to offer advertisers the scale and relevant audience segments needed in
today’s marketplace.

18 Source: Washington Post, November 2009


19 Source: The Business Insider, November 2009
20 Source: paidContent, December 2009
21 Source: AdMob, November 2009

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• Demand Side: The Year Ahead

Meanwhile, increased demand from advertisers for high-quality audiences and


clearly defined results means that ad networks, exchanges and other demand
partners need tech solutions and clearly-defined operating standards to make
their margins while keeping publishers and advertisers happy. Innovation on the
demand side, however, will drive further fragmentation for publishers trying to
capture the dollars spent through these platforms.

• The Tipping Point for Mobile, Video – and Possible Regulation

Dare we say it? 2010 may finally be the year that mobile advertising revenues live
up to the hype. But with an influx of inventory in a variety of forms – WAP banners,
in-app ads, etc. – and a variety of mobile and video networks, how can publishers
and advertisers avoid the same ad quality and channel conflict issues they initially
faced with online ad networks? Meanwhile, will the continued increase in online
video viewership translate into meaningful revenue for publishers? And how will
the marketplace as a whole grapple with revenue-generation if the FTC lays down
regulation for targeting?
MARKET REPORT

Premium Publishers: Optimizing Inventory Value


Many media and financial agency forecasts pegged 2009 as the first year that
interactive ad spending actually declined vs. previous years. Some, like Cowen,
said display spending in certain verticals would be down by nearly 20 percent,22
and in his latest “Nothing but Net” forecast, J.P. Morgan analyst Imran Khan
calculated the overall decline at 5 percent.

But in the same report, Khan predicted that display would rebound in 2010 – to
the tune of a 10.5 percent surge in spending, fueled by a 5 percent rise in CPMs.
The secret? The dollars will only flow if publishers increase the value of their
inventory by making drastic changes – including creating more attention-grabbing
ads, utilizing data-based targeting, and limiting their use of ad networks.23
The efforts by publisher trade groups like the Online Publishers Association (OPA)
to develop ads that are harder to ignore have been well documented.24 So have
the efforts of some publishers to cut back on their use of ad networks.

22 Source: paidContent, October 2009


23 Source: Mediaweek, December 2009
24 Source: MediaPost, June 2009

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But not every publisher wants to run ads that force viewers to watch a video, or
otherwise hold them captive before they can even access a site’s content. Nor
can a majority of publishers afford to completely cut ad networks and other
sales channel partners out of the picture, as they’ll ultimately be left with unsold
inventory – be it international, secondary premium, or otherwise premium
inventory that’s inadequately packaged. Savvy premium publishers who utilize
third parties, with the proper controls in place, have seen the most success – and
this will continue to be the case in 2010.

We do agree with Khan’s assertion that publishers should take more proactive
steps to extract more pricing control over their current inventory. Based on
feedback from premium publishers we work with, there are three primary
strategies likely to be deployed as they work to regain pricing control in 2010:

• Identifying, packaging and selling audience more effectively


• Segmenting inventory and evolving digital pricing strategies
• Aggregating inventory, “premium” networks, and collaboration
MARKET REPORT

Getting Smarter About Identifying, Packaging and Selling Audience

2010 is the year advertisers and marketers will finally be able to leverage
targeting technology to reach specific audiences online.

Today, the vast majority of display ad campaigns, even those that are targeted
using behavioral or demographic data, are bought on a keyword or content-basis.
“In the past, a luxury resort would say, ‘I want to reach affluent travelers,’ and end
up buying inventory on a low-end travel site, or even on another, unrelated site
because they cookied someone on Expedia.com,” said Raj Chauhan, the Rubicon
Project’s VP of Demand Development. “What they really want is to be able to
target someone that has already purchased a Louis Vuitton luggage set, been
verified by Experian, or some other third-party service, to gain tangible proof of
that purchase intent, and then get validation that the user has actually seen the
ad at the end of the process.”

Currently, the online consumer data marketplace is still untamed with multiple
data providers offering their own audience-qualifying criteria and disparate types
of tracking and targeting technology, with varying degrees of accuracy. This
fragmentation poses problems for both advertisers that want to place audience-
based buys, and publishers that want to capitalize on the value of their audience
segments.

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“Most publishers are not in a position to compete in the audience game with
networks or portals – at least on their own – because of a lack of knowledge about
the way audience data is being collected, bought and sold,” said JT Batson, the
Rubicon Project’s EVP of Revenue and Global Development. “There’s also a huge
amount of turnover in the sales and sales operations departments, making it
challenging for companies to make the investment and change that’s needed.”

Still, it’s clear that publishers want to sell on an audience basis. “Audience-based
selling and packaging is critical for large sites to really leverage the reach that
we offer,” said Kyoo Kim, VP of sales at MSNBC Digital Network. “I’d argue that
our 25-49 year-old ‘big decision makers’ are more tech-savvy and have higher
propensity to interact with online ads than the same profile on TV or print. So it’s
critical for us to squeeze the value out of that.”

This higher yield for audience-based buys isn’t just a theory. In Q4, we saw a
sizeable return of brand dollars and increased interest in retargeting, remarketing
and audience-targeted buys, all at significantly higher rates than standard site
buys. CPMs for audience-targeted campaigns in the REVV Marketplace were
on average 4X higher than typical content-based site buys, and contributed
MARKET REPORT

significantly to an overall increase in digital ad revenue spend at the end of the


year.

“More than 10 percent of the ad spend flowing through the REVV Marketplace
was devoted to audience-targeted buys in Q4,” Chauhan said. “That’s up from 6
percent in Q3, and I think we’ll see that grow to 20 or even 25 percent by mid-year
as more premium publishers get more familiar with their data and audience, and
in turn get better at packaging and setting rates accordingly for their inventory.”

But packaging audience shouldn’t be treated only as a standalone solution.


The premium publishers who will be most successful in 2010 will apply a
holistic viewpoint of building a complete packaging process that includes an
understanding of coupling audience inventory alongside quality content.

Premium Publishers Focus on Price Integrity

According to US-based Forrester, 59% of US advertisers plan to increase


their digital budgets — at the expense of offline executions. As a result, online
marketing spend will hit $55 billion in 2014. Supporting this statistic were the
many announcements in 2009 from major brand advertisers who are planning a
decrease in traditional ad spend and an increase in online. Most notable on this
front in Q4 was Pepsi’s announcement to forego airtime during the Super Bowl

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and apply those dollars online instead– to the tune of around $20 million dollars.

As brands reconsider their in-house marketing strategies and related spend, they
are putting more stock in the value of properly segmented and targeted online
ad inventory. As audience buys and the accompanying Q4 rates demonstrate,
advertisers don’t mind paying for value.

Easing advertisers and demand partners resistance to paying higher CPMs for
unsold inventory means changing attitudes about the perceived worth of unsold
inventory. In 2009, we saw many premium publishers and their sales channel
partners look at this segment of inventory in a new light, as industry leaders
lobbied that the intrinsic value of unsold ad space was worth much more than the
going rates.

Jim Spanfeller opined in PaidContent mid-year that “when all is said and done,
there really is no “remnant” inventory on the web, just as there is little to no real
remnant inventory elsewhere. We should price online inventory similarly to how
we price offline units. To think otherwise is to tragically slow the growth of the
industry.”25
MARKET REPORT

Patrick Mersigner, Senior Director of Interactive at CreativeLoafing.com, noted


that one common problem in setting pricing is that “publishers base ad rates on
the cost associated with producing it, not the value it brings to advertisers.”

Premium publishers have a significant opportunity to increase revenue through


more informed pricing. Most publishers have not had the luxury of devoting the
necessary time and resources to identify their customers and assign new value to
their site inventory. But what may have been perceived as a nice-to-have is now
certainly a must-do.

“We saw pricing integrity emerge as one of the most discussed topics at events
this past year when premium publishers finally moved away from treating
impressions as a value-add and acknowledged that coming up with CPMs
in a vacuum is a failed model. Understanding pricing and how this evolving
marketplace is going to work is crucial to their long-term revenue growth,“ said
Rob Beeler, VP Content and Media for AdMonsters, a professional association
dedicated to online advertising operations and technology.

“The natural thought is to sell more to more people but that’s not optimization.

25 Source: PaidContent, August 2009

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True optimization is extracting the most value for the product that is in demand.
Given the increased interest from brands in premium online ad inventory, premium
publishers need to develop a new framework of a demand-based pricing model
that is grounded in consumer insight and strong analytics to drive business results
and a give a competitive edge,” said Tommy Moreno, Principal and Managing
Director at The Glenroe Group, a business consulting firm that helps companies
with pricing and revenue optimization strategy.

“Even a 1% gain in price realization can yield 5% to 10% net income gains. For
example, for a company with average economics a 1% improvement in price—
assuming no loss in volume—can increase operating profit by 11%. To find the
sweet spots and build an informed pricing framework, premium publishers need
to start analyzing their own data and performance such as trend or historical
demand levels, price elasticity, and how inventory is being packaged,” added
Moreno.

Aggregating inventory, “premium” networks, and collaboration


MARKET REPORT

One of the trends pushing publishers toward creating their own networks and
coalitions is the idea that there is an emerging class of technologically enabled
demand partners – including big media agencies that are launching their own real-
time ad-buying platforms, that cater to advertisers and will continue the trend of
acquiring the highest quality inventory at the cheapest price.

In October, CBS Interactive pulled its inventory from ad networks in favor of


launching its own platform, dubbed “Madison.” CEO Neil Ashe told AdAge that
the company was prepared to “take a step back” on revenue in the short term, in
order to see long-term gains.26 Through Madison, CBS Interactive will be able to
offer advertisers both demo- and behaviorally-targeted campaigns – though the
company said it would still work with “premium” exchanges and agency demand-
side platforms.

In the case of Complex Media, the urban lifestyle publication initially launched
its network with four sites in April 2007.27 Nearly three years later, the network
boasts 22 sites that attract roughly 10 million monthly uniques, and has worked
with agencies like Carat to craft custom campaigns for brands like Adidas. By
reaching out to smaller sites like Sneakernews.com, Complex Media was able to

26 Source: AdAge, December 2009


27 Source: Mediapost, January 2009

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extend its own audience of young men – complete with internal pricing and ad
quality controls -- and grow it into a business that was strong enough to warrant a
spin-off from Marc Ecko Enterprises, its parent company.

But not every publisher has the technology, financial resources or dedicated,
educated team in place to be able to make the “publisher-as-network” model
sustainable. For publishers seeking the benefits of increased audience without
the commitment, audience representation and extension partners – including
independent rep firms and companies like the Rubicon Project – are a more viable
option.

Some publishers are launching “coalitions” with the aim of offering scale to
advertisers. The most high-profile example in Q4 was the digital publishing joint
venture created by Time, Inc., Condé Nast, Meredith, Hearst and News Corp.28 that
some are calling the “Hulu for magazines.”

The Fair Syndication Consortium, a group of over 1,000 publishers backed by


content tracking and targeting platform Attributor, formed in Q3. Their goal is to
help publishers stay in business in the midst of increased content aggregation
MARKET REPORT

by brokering deals with ad networks “to track each publisher’s content, then
automatically split the ad revenues between the parent site and the aggregator
or syndication partner.”29 AdBrite is the first network that has signed on as a
participant.

“Clearly, publishers are thinking about alliances in a big way,” said Raleigh
Harbour, the Rubicon Project’s VP of Business Development. “Collectively, they’ve
invested hundreds of millions of dollars in content to attract people – and the
inventory prices they’re seeing, with the margins they’re getting, aren’t sufficient
enough to sustain that.”

Demand Side: The Year Ahead


Two years ago this month, we issued our first Online Advertising Market Report,
which focused on the fractured ad network landscape. At that time, and ever
since, there has been a nearly non-stop flow of predictions that many networks
would drop out of the overly-crowded market – with reasons ranging from
publishers flocking to exchanges to the “pork bellies” manifestos of 2008. And

28 Source: MediaMemo, December 2009


29 Source: paidContent, July 2009

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while some companies have shut down, it hasn’t happened en masse. Instead
we’ve watched the industry evolve toward a more holistic “demand marketplace,”
with a variety of inventory buyers – ad networks, exchanges, media agencies and,
more recently, even data-targeting and aggregation services – competing for a
given impression at any time, and a landscape where publishers better understand
ad networks, exchanges, and other demand partners as efficient sales channels.

New research conducted by the Rubicon Project at the end of 2009 and start of
2010 across a number of demand partners elicited strong opinions on key shifts in
the market in the year ahead.

Agencies Start Their Learning Curve

One of the benefits of the big media agencies’ bidding platforms is that in theory,
the platforms will help solve some of the issues around content-verification
and ad-tracking in-house. That’s in addition to helping the agencies operate
more efficiently by running campaigns based on audience from the onset (thus
eliminating waste) and getting the best inventory at the lowest price possible.
MARKET REPORT

Still, with the exception of WPP’s B3 – built off of the platform formerly known as
24/7 Real Media – most of the agency platforms are still in their infancy.

“Among other challenges is a lack of in-house expertise. Quite a few of the


platforms are using third-party licensed technologies but the teams are still
figuring out how to manage them,” said the Rubicon Project’s Raj Chauhan.
Some ad networks we spoke with expressed precursory concern over being
disintermediated from advertisers by agency exchanges by being forced to go
through their platforms; other networks didn’t view agency exchanges as a
significant obstacle, citing an overall lack of technology know-how, data, volume,
and quality controls that advertisers and publishers need.

Philip Smolin, General Manager of Platform Solutions at Turn said, “2010 will
be a transformational year for agencies. Leading edge media buyers can now
use sophisticated Demand Side Platforms (DSPs) like Turn to plug directly into
sell side optimizers such as the Rubicon Project and target individual users and
impressions. The end result is a dramatically improved understanding of the
advertiser’s optimal audience, the ability to maximize reach against that audience,
and an order of magnitude improvement in media buying efficiency. The agencies
who embrace these new technologies and media strategies on behalf of their
advertisers will be the big winners.”

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Ad Network Trends

How the ad network market will evolve, and in some cases shake out, brought
several consistent responses. Among the top:

Vertical ad networks will flourish: Maureen Little, VP of Business Development at


Turn also sees a lot of growth ahead for vertical ad networks. “Vertical and data-
driven networks will live on for a pretty long time, especially those with exclusive
user data and high-end publishers. But the vanilla or standard networks are
going to be shaken out.”

Networks Need to Innovate – or Partner with Innovators: Every demand-side


channel we spoke with stressed the importance for networks to innovate and
differentiate. Jaan Janes, CEO of Pulse 360 said, “This is not a static marketplace
and the networks that grow and thrive will be the ones that deliver the most value
for advertisers, publishers and consumers.”

Eric Franchi, SVP, Business Development, Undertone Networks commented,


“Networks have consistently brought innovation to a space where it has been
MARKET REPORT

lacking – behavioral targeting, re-targeting, optimization, frequency capping,


audience segmentation and other products and techniques that are considered
mandatory today are all network innovations. That said, undifferentiated
networks will find 2010 challenging as agencies continue investigating ways to
bring these tools in house.”

An executive at one top tier network questioned the sustainability of smaller


networks that aren’t able to apply the same budget and resources to developing
proprietary solutions or investing in third-party technologies like verification
and data. “These hundreds of networks that are just buying on exchanges don’t
have granular data on the site level. I don’t see how they can compete. They can
contract with data providers but it doesn’t give them enough of a differentiator
like big networks.“

Ben Abbatiello, Senior Director, Business Development at interCLICK commented,


“The industry has clearly shifted toward an audience based buying model.
Right now demand partners are doing some interesting work with inventory
aggregation, which is being simplified by companies like Rubicon. What’s missing
however is a coherent data strategy beyond a couple guys using excel, as well as
the operational skill set required to execute such a strategy with any scale. Ad
networks like interCLICK have been focused on technological and operational
innovation for the past 5+ years and the results show. That’s tough to compete
with.”

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Demand for Audience Targeting is Growing: All the demand partners


acknowledged that the request for audience-based buys from advertisers has
grown. “It’s become a valuable aspect of the media plan and definitely part of the
overall model,” said interCLICK’s Abbatiello.

Added Chauhan, “Our network partners are telling us that more of the agency
RFPs they get have some kind of demographic or audience-targeted component
layered into them. It will be challenging for the networks that can’t offer that to
grow.”

There is also a need for networks to support rich media requests, especially as ad
agency creatives become better versed in creating for the digital and interactive
environments. “Requests for media execution are becoming much more prevalent.
We’re seeing more and more advertisers spending incremental dollars on
dynamic messaging and interactive banners, which can make delivery a bit more
of a challenge from an operational standpoint. To thrive in this next phase of
the market, networks have to be able to support creative, data, and inventory
competency,” added Abbatiello.
MARKET REPORT

Transparency in Reporting: As Rob Beeler, VP of Content and Media at


AdMonsters relayed, “Many networks are trying to differentiate themselves from
one another by being more transparent about the kind of advertising they’re
bringing to publishers. They’re enacting stricter advertising guidelines and moving
away from the blind-sell and arbitraging models.”

Maureen Little, VP of Business Development at Turn agrees and sees an even


bigger shift ahead around transparency. “It used to be networks couldn’t secure
quality premium publisher inventory without running a ‘blind’ site list but I think
that model is going to flip on its head, and turn into publishers not being able to
secure a quality brand advertiser without being transparent.”

Before, advertisers were satisfied with the reporting delivered by the ad networks
or exchanges but now they want more transparency into where the ad ran
and what kind of response it received. Simultaneously, publishers are putting
more stringent pricing controls in place, meaning they are willing to offer that
transparency – but at a price. We are seeing a move to greater transparency on
both sides of the coin, which should lead to more efficiency in the marketplace.

“Publishers are less concerned about getting rid of the poorly designed, ‘flashy,’
‘shaky’ ads, because good optimization platforms catch them, and reputable ad
networks won’t run them,” the Rubicon Project’s JT Batson said. “They’re pushing

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for more transparency as it pertains to who is running which ad on their site, and
how much they paid for it.”

Content Verification

On the flip side, advertisers are also pushing for control and transparency. They
still have concerns about accurate impression-count reporting and campaign
tracking and want control over where and when an ad appears and related
performance.

“Content adjacency and delivery-verification efforts will be huge in 2010,” said


Andrea Kerr Redniss, Managing Director and SVP at Publicis’ Optimedia. “It’s been
an agency concern for some time, and now we’re seeing companies crop up to
address the issue.”

“The emergence of content-verification companies, like AdSafe and DoubleVerify,


are actually forcing ad networks to prove what they’ve always maintained - that
they’re providing the right inventory to buyers and not running campaigns on
MARKET REPORT

sites that fall outside those listed on RFPs,” Chauhan said. “We recently partnered
with AdSafe to leverage its multi-layer technology in order to give our customers
and sales channel partners a platform that provides reach and performance
without compromising their advertisers’ brands.”

One partner commented that agencies feel networks should pick up the costs
associated with content-verification. Expect to see networks start to bake these
services into everyone’s fees as an offering within network quality controls. We
will also see ad networks taking more proactive measures to support industry
standards. For example, as of the end of Q4, Pulse 360 became the first ad
network outside of Google, Yahoo and Microsoft to pass a third-party audit of the
IAB’s new Click Measurement Guidelines, first launched in May.

There is a definite sense of urgency, and a general industry agreement, to create


a broad marketplace and associated technologies that offer advertisers and
publishers deep visibility into audience, pricing and performance.

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The Tipping Point for Mobile, Video … and Maybe,


Regulation

A Mobile Ad Inventory Explosion

It seems that market analysts, press, and ad industry pundits of all kinds have
been touting every year since 2007 as “the breakout year” for mobile advertising.
But Google’s acquisition of mobile ad network AdMob at the end of 2009 – not to
mention Apple’s follow-up with the purchase of rival Quattro Wireless this month30
– has ensured that more advertisers, publishers and ad technology providers will
be focused on mobile advertising in 2010.

Some quick facts about the mobile ad market from a recent survey of 100 ad
agencies:31

• Mobile spending is expected to increase in 2010: most agency respondents (31


percent) said they expect to invest between $100K and $249K
MARKET REPORT

• In 2009, the majority of agency respondents said they spent less than $100K on
mobile campaigns
• 80 percent of all mobile campaigns that ran in 2009 utilized a mobile ad network
of some kind; most buyers place campaigns with one network
• Less than 9 percent of agencies purchased mobile inventory directly from
publishers
• A majority (52 percent) of agencies used geo-targeted campaigns; age-based
targeting was the next most-popular (39 percent), followed by gender or
behavioral targeting (both at 28 percent)

“There’s been a lot of hype around mobile before, but I think we’ll see some good,
legitimate dollars flowing into mobile campaigns this year. This shift in dollars is
being accelerated by consumer adoption of smarter wireless devices,” Raleigh
Harbour of the Rubicon Project said. “It’s simple supply and demand. As more
people (the “supply”) look at websites, apps, and content on their phones, more
advertisers will want to run campaigns there.” Judging from the survey responses,
a majority of those campaigns will be trafficked across mobile ad networks.

Mobile ad networks like Mojiva, Quattro Wireless, Millennial Media and JumpTap

30 Source: Quattro Wireless, January 2010


31 Source: FierceWireless, November 2009

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have emerged for the same reasons that online ad networks evolved: most
publishers can’t sell the bulk of their mobile ad inventory on their own either
because of a lack of sales experience, resources, or both. But mobile ad networks
also help advertisers deal with fragmentation unique to the mobile marketplace
due to the wide variety of handsets, delivery formats, ad sizes, etc. – they often
have handset-recognition technology built in, as well as geo- and demographic
targeting capabilities that simplify the entire process.

One of the trends we think will start to influence the overall online ad marketplace
this year is the integration of mobile ad inventory by non-mobile ad networks.
“Advertisers are starting to include mobile in many of their large digital RFPs,”
Harbour said. “And traditional networks that can offer ‘one-stop’ shopping for
online and mobile campaigns will become increasingly valuable.” In response,
traditional online display networks are beginning to incorporate mobile inventory
into their core media buying process.

“Advertisers are starting to include mobile in every digital RFP,” Harbour said.
“And traditional networks that can offer ‘one-stop’ shopping for online and mobile
campaigns will become increasingly valuable.”
MARKET REPORT

All About the Apps

The popularity of the iPhone, with its desktop-like mobile Web experience, has
flooded the market with the “next big thing” in mobile: third-party apps. From
video games and streaming video from media brands like MLB and the NCAA,
to workplace productivity tools, there truly is an app for everything. The app
explosion has also created a slew of new mobile ad inventory – complete with a
crop of app-based ad networks in the market.

“Advertisers have the option of buying WAP inventory from a publisher like NBC
or the Washington Post, and for the publishers who build their own applications,
these same advertisers can now buy space in a brand safe, high engagement
environment,” Harbour said. “And while that’s a trend that will continue to grow,
there are questions emerging about the diverse inventory of current in-app
inventory.”

For advertisers, the rise of app-based ad networks raises the potential issue of
brand protection, since currently many of the ad-based apps are social media
tools and video games. A brand might not choose to run its campaign on a user-
generated photo sharing website such as TweetPhoto or TwitPic, but a blind buy
from an in-app ad network could result in its banner showing up in either app and

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next to an explicit or otherwise unfavorable photo. For publishers that create apps,
there’s the question of the quality of the ad campaigns coming in from the in-app
networks, as well as the pricing.

“For the most part, publisher and advertiser concerns about ad quality, brand
protection and channel conflict are being addressed with greater efficiency
in the online ad network marketplace and, of course, with services like ours,”
Harbour said. “This is in early stages for the mobile ad space. There is room for
improvement on those fronts with both mobile Web and in-app formats, and I
think that will be a big priority this year for the industry and for us. Thought
leaders in the space will be able to leverage the learning from the online display
world and apply that to mobile to address these issues head on.”

Video Usage Soars, but What About Monetization?

Much like mobile Web usage, online video usage continues to rise. Research from
Nielsen Online found that people in the U.S. were watching an average of over 3
hours (195 minutes) of video per month,32 and with the availability of easy-to-use
MARKET REPORT

platforms like UStream and VodPod, publishers are increasingly incorporating


video content to their sites.

But with video content comes video ad inventory, which, for the most part, outside
of premium brands like Hulu and CBS’ TV.com, is still being under-monetized. Take
the fates of the independent online video production studios as an example.

In 2009, 60Frames and Mania TV shut down completely, while EQAL, the studio
behind the breakout YouTube series lonelygirl15, all but gave up on its hopes
of creating original content without getting advertiser buy-in first.33 These
were well-funded startups that had quality content, with solid syndication and
distribution strategies in place. All that was missing was the ad revenue.

“Marketers are talking about video campaigns, but the actual spending hasn’t
taken off to the degree that some people expected,” said Harbour. “There are
still concerns about running ads on un-controlled UGC environments, or even
unproven Web series, vs. safe, original branded content and there’s still far more
supply in UGC video inventory than in demand.”

There is also the perception that online video inventory – regardless of how

32 Source: Nielsen, October 2009


33 Source: paidContent, July 2009

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popular – is still far less valuable than TV inventory. Again, there are exceptions.
Hulu, for example, has been able to garner higher rates for online episodes of
shows like The Simpsons34 than on TV. And while those rates are promising, most
publishers don’t have the same resources that a huge joint venture like Hulu
does to hire and train a sales force focused specifically on video monetization.
Thus, many publishers work with video ad networks to get some value for their
audiences.

Positive Trends

But while the online video ad market is still under-monetized, there are a few
trends that agencies, in particular, are expecting to help bring more brand dollars
into the market.

• Standardization of metrics and measurement surrounding online video, for more


accurate comparisons to TV metrics
• New ad formats (beyond pre-, post- and mid-roll) that add more value for
advertisers
MARKET REPORT

“We will continue to see incremental dollars shift from TV to online video – but
with better metrics and ad formats, I think the rate of that shift will increase,”
said Andrea Kerr Redniss. “I also think we’ll see more publishers push for paid
subscription models, which will reduce some of the available inventory, and
possibly drive up CPMs.”

An emerging trend some video-focused ad network partners are starting to see


is the concept of video branded content to connect with audience. “There’s this
shift happening from competing for dollars to competing for attention. Gaming
companies to movie studios to established consumer product companies are
looking for more creative ways to capture that attention. We’re seeing the model
evolve from advertising in videos to using video content as advertising, said Dan
Greenberg, CEO of Sharethrough, a video distribution network for branded online
video content.

Greenberg continued, “traditionally, brands like AT&T and Verizon compete with
each other for consumer dollars. Online, brands are realizing that they are
now competing for consumer attention with all sorts of other entertainment

34 Source: Bloomberg, June 2009

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on the Web. The future of Web video for brands is not about captive audiences
and forced engagement like TV. Rather, success hinges on creating authentic,
entertaining content that builds audiences and captures consumer attention.
We’re going to continue to see brands aiming to reach consumers in this way,
which will open up additional revenue opportunities for Premium Web and video
publishers beyond the standard pre-roll model.”

Keeping an Eye on Regulation

But many publishers (and demand partners) are keeping an eye on an even bigger
issue than monetizing online video – potential Federal regulation over behavioral
targeting and consumer privacy.

In June, Congress held a hearing on “Behavioral Advertising: Industry Practices


and Consumers’ Expectations,”35 and though no legislation came as a result, the
“threat” of it loomed over the rest of 2009. And that risk isn’t going to go away
this year. Per OMMA Magazine’s “Survival Guide 2010.”36
MARKET REPORT

“Congress is expected to consider a proposal for new legislation regarding online


behavioral targeting and privacy. Whether such a measure passes or not, the
mere introduction of a bill could drive change. “When a draft comes out, if it’s
done well, it will set a bar,” says Jules Polonetsky, co-chair and director of the
think tank Future of Privacy Forum.

The draft bill is expected to encourage Web companies to give users access to
their online profiles, as do companies like Google and BlueKai. Of course, the
meaning of “access” remains in play. It could simply require companies to allow
people to view the broad interest categories associated with their Web-surfing
activity, or could mean allowing people to see that information coupled with a list
of sites visited. Or the measure could require companies to give users control
over their profiles.

Other implications of new legislation could be a forced move to letting consumers


opt-in to being cookied and targeted, as opposed to having them opt-out as
it stands now. While industry groups like the Network Advertising Initiative
(NAI) have recently made it much easier for consumers to manage their opt-
out preferences and to understand how they are being targeted, Congress’

35 Source: Congress, June 2009


36 Source: OMMA Magazine, December 2009

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examination has made it clear that the self-regulation thus far hasn’t been
sufficient.

“Prospective regulation of online behavioral advertising will continue to be a


key challenge in 2010. With significant scrutiny and likely proposals from both
Congress and the Federal Trade Commission, it will be more important than
ever for the industry as a whole to deliver an effective self-regulatory response,
focusing on enhancements to consumer transparency and choice,” said Charles
Curran, Executive Director of NAI.

Added Craig Roah, the Rubicon Project’s COO, “I think there’s a feeling on some
levels that there’s a need for regulation. Behavioral targeting and targeting in
general is a bit like the Wild West – almost like e-mail marketing a few years ago.
CAN-SPAM was necessary to help clean that industry up, and with targeting, there
are some advertisers that want clearly defined rules to follow.”

Roah continues, “On that same note, the industry needs to continue educating
the market and consumers on this very topic in order to find a solution that will
benefit the growth and innovation of the online advertising industry.”
MARKET REPORT

Thoughts for the Future


Proliferation of demand platforms

The end of 2009 saw a great deal of chatter and excitement around the concept
of DSPs. We’re carefully watching this trend and believe there’s potentially
significant value to the marketplace from these platforms, especially if premium
publishers are well protected from risk and empowered to benefit from this
development.

As it stands now, DSPs represent another burst of innovation on behalf of


advertisers to help them achieve marketing goals at the lowest possible cost. In
the year ahead we’ll see a boom in these types of platforms, which will lead to
overwhelming choices for advertiser, causing further fragmentation of dollars and
sources. We see strong similarities between this and the ad network “gold rush”
that started several years ago.

2010 is starting with great momentum, backed by recent strong successes for
digital display advertising and innovation on both the supply and demand sides of
the equation. Our expectation is that this will be a landmark year for digital media
– and we’re excited to be a part of this revolution as it unfolds.

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About the Rubicon Project


Headquartered in Los Angeles, the Rubicon Project launched in 2007 with a
mission to automate the $65 billion global online advertising industry. The
company’s Yield Management Optimization platform, REVV for Publishers™, is
engineered to accelerate revenue for premium Web publishers. Backed by $42
million in funding from Clearstone Venture Partners, Mayfield Fund, IDG Ventures
and GE/NBC Universal’s Peacock Equity Fund, the Rubicon Project serves premium
publishers like NBC Universal, Gannett and CareerBuilder; optimizing more than
45 billion ads each month and reaching 500 million unique Internet users. Ranked
second in overall Internet reach by Quantcast, the Rubicon Project also helps
ad sales channels around the world gain access to precise audience-segmented
inventory, at broad scale.

the Rubicon Project [HQ] the Rubicon Project [Sydney]


1925 S. Bundy Drive 58 Ronald Avenue
Los Angeles, CA 90025 Greenwich NSW 2065
Phone: 310.207.0272 Australia
MARKET REPORT

Fax: 310.207.0528 Phone: 61.400.006297

the Rubicon Project [New York] the Rubicon Project [London]


106 Seventh Avenue 48 Charlotte Street
New York, NY 10011 London W1 2NS
Phone: 212.243.2759 Phone: 44.20.3170.5615
Fax: 310.207.0528 Fax: 44.20.3170.6330

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Footnote Index
1. comScore - comScore Reports $29.1 Billion in U.S. Retail E-Commerce Spending
for Full November-December Holiday Season, Up 4 Percent vs. Year Ago - http://
comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/1/comScore_Reports_29.1_
Billion_in_U.S._Retail_E-Commerce_Spending_for_Full_November-December_
Holiday_Season_Up_4_Percent_vs._Year_Ago
2. Adweek – No Miracles on 34th Street -- http://www.adweek.com/aw/content_
display/news/media/e3i4cb8ab67c89c15aaa659c69fd36f3d16?pn=1
3. The NRF – Online Retailers to Emphasize Free Shipping, Social Media this Holiday
Season – http://www.nrf.org/modules.php?name=News&op=viewlive&sp_id=808
4. MarketingVox – SocNet Experiments Bode Well for Holiday Season - http://www.
marketingvox.com/socnet-experiments-bode-well-for-holiday-season-045438/
5. MediaBuyerPlanner – Analysts Confident Advertising Will Rise to Pre-Recession
Levels - http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/entry/45710/analysts-confident-
advertising-will-rise-to-pre-recession-levels/
6. Petsky Prunier – Deal Notes (Q409) - http://petskyprunier.com/index.php?/deal-
notes/
MARKET REPORT

7. paidContent – Updated: Marc Ecko’s Complex Media Gets $12.8 Million, Spins Off
Into Standalone Company http://paidcontent.org/article/419-marc-eckos-complex-
media-adds-12.8-million-in-funding/
8. GigaOm – 1020 Placecast Pins $5M for Mobile Geo-targted Marketing http://
gigaom.com/2009/11/18/1020-placecast-pins-5m-for-mobile-geo-targeted-
marketing/
9. paidContent – RocketFuel Raises $2.85 Million For Ad Network http://paidcontent.
org/article/419-rocket-fuel-raises-2.85-million-for-ad-network/
10. NYT Bits – Accenture Tries to Turn Ads Into Gold with Adchemy - http://bits.blogs.
nytimes.com/2009/10/20/accenture-tries-to-turn-ads-into-gold-with-adchemy/
11. AudienceScience - AudienceScience Secures $20M in Venture Funding From
Existing Investors to Fuel Domestic and International Growth- http://www.
audiencescience.com/press_room/press_releases/2009/20091020.asp
12. The New York Observer – Portfolio.com to Get Lazarus Treatment - http://www.
observer.com/2009/media/portfoliocom-get-lazarus-treatment
13. MediaMemo - BusinessWeek’s Fire Sale Nets McGraw Hill $5.9 Million, or $15,000
Per Staffer http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091026/businessweeks-fire-sale-
nets-mcgraw-hill-5-9-million/
14. Talking Biz News – Layoffs begin at BusinessWeek - http://weblogs.jomc.unc.edu/
talkingbiznews/?p=11890
15. PR Newswire – Bloomberg BusinessWeek Ceases Publication of SmallBiz http://
www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bloomberg-businessweek-ceases-publication-
of-smallbiz-78529897.html

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16. Gawker – Forbes Layoffs Are Here, and They’re Brutal - http://gawker.
com/5391948/forbes-layoffs-are-here-and-theyre-brutal
17. First on FBNY: Time Inc. Shutters Custom Pub Fortune Small Business. http://www.
mediabistro.com/fishbowlny/the_revolving_door/first_on_fbny_time_inc_shutters_
custom_pub_fortune_small_business_142197.asp
18. The Washington Post – Washington Post shutters last U.S. bureaus - http://www.
washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/24/AR2009112403014.
html?referrer=facebook
19. The Business Insider – AP Layoff Update: Damage Continues - http://www.
businessinsider.com/ap-layoff-update-damage-around-the-world-2009-11
20. The Life and Times of AdMob - http://blog.admob.com/2009/11/09/google-to-
acquire-admob/
21. paidContent - Cowen Maintains 5 Percent Online Ad Decline For U.S.; Carat Revises
Global Online Ad Spend Down http://paidcontent.org/article/419-cowen-maintains-
5-percent-online-ad-decline-for-u.s.-carat-revises-glob/
22. Mediaweek - Analyst: Online Display Ads Set to Surge - http://www.mediaweek.
com/mw/content_display/news/digital-downloads/metrics/e3ia2c2f303f03d144b4a
1e3c5361e637db?pn=1
MARKET REPORT

23. MediaPost – 37 Sites Ready To Implement OPA’s Bigger, Badder Ad Formats


- http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_
aid=108864
24. paidContent – CBS Cuts Ties To Outside Ad Networks For Display, Launches Its
Own http://paidcontent.org/article/419-cbs-interactive-to-cut-ties-to-outside-ad-
networks-launch-its-own/
25. PaidContent – Publishers Are Killing Web Advertising’s Potential With Misguided
Pricing - http://paidcontent.org/article/419-cbs-interactive-to-cut-ties-to-outside-
ad-networks-launch-its-own/
26. AdAge – CBS Interactive Dumps Ad Networks - http://adage.com/digital/
article?article_id=141054
27. Mediapost - Complex Media Adds Seven Partner Sites - http://www.mediapost.
com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=98950
28. MediaMemo - Now’s the Time, Finally: Publishers Announce Their “Hulu for
Magazines.” Next Up: Building It - http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091208/
nows-the-time-finally-publishers-announce-their-hulu-for-magazines-next-up-
building-it/
29. Fair Syndication Consortium – A First Step -http://www.fairsyndication.org/
blog/2009/content_syndication_and_management_guidelines/
30. Quattro Wireless – Happy New Year from Quattro Wireless - http://www.
quattrowireless.com/mobile_insight/blog/happy_new_year_from_quattro_wireless
31. Fierce Wireless – The State Of the Industry: Mobile Advertising - http://www.
fiercewireless.com/press-releases/state-industry-mobile-advertising

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32. Nielsen Wire - Time Spent Viewing Video Online Up 25% per Viewer - http://blog.
nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/time-spent-viewing-video-online-up-25-per-
viewer/
33. paidContent - Studios-Backed Web Video Efforts Stalled For Now; Who’s Left?
http://paidcontent.org/article/419-studios-backed-web-video-efforts-stalled-for-
now-whos-left/09/october/nielsen_announces
34. Bloomberg.com - Loyal ‘Simpsons’ Fans Fetch Higher Ad Rates on Web (Update1)
-http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601204&sid=atKGiQOMco.Y
35. Energy and Commerce Subcommittee Hearing on “Behavioral Advertising:
Industry Practices and Consumers’ Expectations” Congressional hearing http://
energycommerce.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1674
:energy-and-commerce-subcommittee-hearing-on-behavioral-advertising-industry-
practices-and-consumers-expectations&catid=122:media-advisories&Itemid=55
36. OMMA Magazine – 2010 Survival Guide: Regulators - http://www.mediapost.com/
publications/index.cfm?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=118218
MARKET REPORT

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