28/04/2015

AfterUkraine,theWestshouldopenitsdoorstoRussia|RussiaBeyondTheHeadlines

Thissiteusescookies.Bycontinuingtobrowsethesiteyouareagreeingtoouruseofcookies.Findoutmorehere.

ENGLISH

SUBSCRIBE APPS FOLLOWUS EPAPER SPECIALPROJECTS

US UK ASIA

SEARCH

WORLD

BUSINESS

POLITICS&SOCIETY

SCIENCE&TECH

DEFENSE

OPINION

ARTS&LIVING

TRAVEL

SPORT

BLOGS

GO

MULTIMEDIA

HOTTOPICS THEUNKNOWNWAR EUROPE LONGREADS SANCTIONSAGAINSTRUSSIA LITERATURE

Home>Opinion

AfterUkraine,theWestshouldopenitsdoorsto
Russia
April28,2015SirTonyBrenton,specialtoRBTH

WithlastmonthmarkingthefirstanniversaryoftheRussianannexationofCrimea,it
seemsafittingtimetoassessthesituation,saysformerUKambassadortoRussiaSir
TonyBrenton
Tweet

EDITOR'SCHOICE

Russia,U.S.
commemorate
ElbeDay
anniversary
withwreath
laying
ceremony

NEWS

14:05April28,2015 Russiacutsnucleararms

stockpilestominimallevelsPutin

Sharebyemail

13:18April28,2015 Rusallooksforsmall

acquisitionsinIndonesiareport

RELATED

Abeautifulplace
caughtingeopolitical
games:Expatsgive
theirviewsonCrimea

12:58April28,2015 PresidentPoroshenko:

OPINION: Ukraine

propelledartillerysystemexplodesatdrills
insouthernRussia

WarmaystartinUkraineatanymoment
11:54April28,2015 Noonehurtasself

crisis:Werefacinga
ColdWarmindset

20:12April27,2015 Newwebsiteoffers3

DiscoveringRussian
cultureinEurope,
April1730

centuriesworthofhistoricalstatisticson
Russia
19:40April27,2015 UkraineinvitesEU

companiestobuyintogaspipelinesystem

TAGS
CRIMEA
EUROPE

18:58April27,2015 ForeignMinistrypreparing

Clickheretoenlargetheimage.DrawingbyAlexeiIorsch
OPINIONHEADLINES

Perestroika30years
on:Analyzingthe
consequencesfor
modernRussia

Ukrainecrisis:Were
facingaColdWar
mindset

IfRussianshadaUK
vote

MoscowandBeijing

Despiteoddrenewedoutburstsoffighting,theacutephaseoftheUkraine
crisismaybeending.Violenceissignificantlydownandtherehavebeen
prisonerexchangesandsomewithdrawalofheavyweapons.Ontwoofthe
majorpointsofcontention,UkrainewillclearlynotbeadmittedtoNATOfor
theforeseeablefuture,andKievhasbegunworkingonautonomy
arrangementsfortherebelregions.MoscowandKiev,knowingtheir
economicfragility,alsoknowthecostsofresumedhostilitiescouldfar
exceedanylikelybenefits.
Wearenotoutofthewoodsyet.Neithersidehasitszealotscompletely
undercontrol.Eachregularlyaccusestheotherofinfractions.Thereare
outsideforces,notablyinWashington,whoarelookingforapretexttoput
theRussiansintheirplace(BerlinandParishavequestionedU.S.
estimatesofthethreateningbuildupofRussianforcesinUkraine).And
theMinskagreementisunlikelytobeimplementedinfull.Itstipulatesthat
theRussianborder,throughwhichsupporttotherebelsflows,willbe
closedonlywhentherebelsreachagreementwithKievonautonomy.This
willnothappenquickly.Therebelsarenotpartoftheautonomy
discussions.Sofortheimmediatefuture,theDonbassislikelytoremainan
unresolvedconflict,likethoseinGeorgia,witheverypossibility(asin
Georgia)ofarenewedexplosionlater.
Butwithpeaceperhapsinprospect,whatdowedoaboutRussia?Thefirst
actionpointiswesternsanctions.Thesewerealwaysamisbegottenpolicy,
pursuedmoreintheabsenceofafeasiblealternativethantoachieve
results.TheircentraleffecthasbeentouniteRussianbehindtheirpresident
andhispoliciesthereverseofwhatwasintended.PresidentObamastill
arguesthattheywillchangePutinscalculus.ButnoRussianIknow
(includingleadingmembersoftheopposition)believesthiswillhappen.For
Putinthecrisisisaboutnationalsecurity,notmoney.NordoesanyRussian

http://rbth.co.uk/opinion/2015/04/28/after_ukraine_the_west_should_open_its_doors_to_russia_45607.html?

evacuationofRussiansfromNepal
18:06April27,2015 SanctionscauseRussia

shortfallof$160billionPutin

PHOTOOFTHEDAY

ViewMore

1/4

28/04/2015
mustlearntobe
upfrontwitheachother

AfterUkraine,theWestshouldopenitsdoorstoRussia|RussiaBeyondTheHeadlines
believethereistheslightestprospectofbringingPutindown.
RecenthintsofsquabbleswithintheRussianrulingapparatushavebeena
sharpreminderofhowirreplaceablePutinisastheequilibratorofthe
system.Unlesshostilitiesresume,sanctionsarenotsustainable.The
Europeanconsensusonwhichtheydependisvisiblyeroding.TheWest
needstofindanelegantwaytobackoutofthesanctionsculdesac,in
parallelwithRussiandeliveryonthepeaceprocess.
Second,whilethemuchtoutednarrativeofarevanchistRussiawith
designsonUkraine,Estonia,Poland,etc,hasvirtuallynoevidenceto
supportit,theUkrainecrisisdoesraiseseriousquestionsaboutEuropean
security.TheannexationofCrimeawasexceptionalandisplainly
irreversiblethevastmajorityofCrimeansnowseeCrimeaasan
inalienablepartofRussia.ButCrimeaisalsoasharpreminderthatthe
worldisstillultimatelygovernedbypower,notlaw.Natoneedstoarmitself
forsuchaworld.ThedecisionsoflastsummertocreateaSpearhead
ForceforNatosmostexposedmemberswasright,butwasundermined
bytheunwillingnessofNATOsmajorEuropeanmemberstospendmore
ondefence.
FinallythereisthequestionofhowwerelatetoRussia.Thepredominant
westernviewisthatwearenowinanewColdWarrequiringanextended
periodofisolationandcontainment.Thiswouldbeablunder,forthree
reasons.First,pragmatism.TrustbetweenRussiaandtheWestisatan
absolutelow.Meanwhile,theRussiansareengagedindemonstrative
militaryactivitytodiscouragewhattheyseeasawesternthreat.Itis
extraordinarilydangerousthatatthistensetimewehavefewermilitaryand
otherlinkswiththeRussiansthanwehadattheheightoftheColdWar.
Thereiseverypossibilityofchanceconfrontationorcatastrophicaccident.
Linksneedurgentlytoberebuilttodiminishthatpossibility.

BLOGS

Second,thereisthegeopolitics.Chinahasmanageditsrelationshipwith
RussiamuchbetterthantheWest.XiJinpingisaregularvisitortoMoscow
and,unlikewesternleaders,willbeinMoscowforthisyearsanniversaryof
theendoftheSecondWorldWarinEurope.Despitelongstanding
historicaltensionsbetweenthem,ChinaandRussiabothnowhavestrong
reasonstostrengthentheirlinks,andaredoingso.Lastsummers$400bn
gascontractandtheforthcomingjointmilitaryexerciseinthe
Mediterraneanarethemosteyecatchingexamples.Meanwhile,U.S.China
geopoliticalcompetitionintensifiesasunderlinedbytherecentargument
overtheAsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBank.Russiaisbycultureand
inclinationaEuropeancountry.DoesitreallymakesensefortheWestto
pushitintoChinasarms?
Andthird,thereisthetrajectoryofRussia.UntilayearagotheRussian
middleclasswasthefastestgrowinginEurope.Thatclassishungryfor
Europeanstandardsofprosperity,governanceandrightsasbecame
clearinthedemonstrationsof2011/12.Theregimeisdeterminedto
maintainpoliticalcontrolbuthasbeenkeentofostertheeconomic
opennessonwhichRussiandevelopmentdepends.Inawiderangeof
othercountries,fromSouthKoreatoIndonesia,thesamepolitico/economic
confrontationhasproducedthetriumphofdemocracyandopenmarkets.
Russiawasonthesameroute.TheUkrainecrisisstoppedthat.Weneedto
getbacktothebusinessofhelpingRussiabecomeanormalEuropean
state.ThewaytoreformRussiaistoopendoors,notclosethem.
SirTonyBrentonisawriterandformerdiplomat.HewasUKambassador
toRussia200408

DividingandrulingASEAN:
LessonsforRussia
Weshouldntmixtradedealsand
geopoliticalblocs

[POST]IndustrialUrals:San
Donato.Onestoryfortwo
WhyistherailwaystationatNizhniy
Tagil,oneofthemostgloomyand
industrialRussiancities,named
SanDonatointheItalianmanner?

WhatissoRussianabout
Russianfashion?
AleksandraEfimovadrawsher
conclusionsfromMercedesBenz
FashionWeek

BUSINESSCALENDAR

JUNE
StartupVillage2015
23June
ReadMore

CULTURECALENDAR

APRIL
RomanceinSovietArtexhibition
intheMuseumofRussianArt
(TMORA)
4April20September

PhotoexhibitionAllies.70years
ofVictory
9April30May

Famousdesignerstocreate
fashionimagesforthe'Russian
Seasons'
24April13May

St.PetersburgsEifmanBalletgoes
ontheU.S.tour
28April14June

JUNE
RomanceinSovietArtexhibition
intheMuseumofRussianArt
(TMORA)
4April20September

http://rbth.co.uk/opinion/2015/04/28/after_ukraine_the_west_should_open_its_doors_to_russia_45607.html?

2/4

28/04/2015

AfterUkraine,theWestshouldopenitsdoorstoRussia|RussiaBeyondTheHeadlines
St.PetersburgsEifmanBalletgoes
ontheU.S.tour
28April14June

ByzantiumtoRussia:Originsand
DevelopmentofRussianIcons,
1200to1900
BACKTOTOP

Followus
onfacebook

2May12September

ReadMore

Ukrainecrisis:WerefacingaCold
Warmindset

TheopinionofthewritermaynotnecessarilyreflectthepositionofRBTHor
itsstaff.
Tweet

FROMAROUNDTHEWEB

Loading...

RELATEDARTICLES

Abeautifulplacecaughtingeopoliticalgames:ExpatsgivetheirviewsonCrimea
OPINION: Ukrainecrisis:WerefacingaColdWarmindset
DiscoveringRussiancultureinEurope,April1730

BestofRussia

TAGS CRIMEA,EUROPE

Follow@rbthuk

575followers

Stay
Eat
See

ConnectwithRussiaBeyondtheHeadlinesUKonFacebook

Youmightenjoyreading:

10HabitsYouNeedTo
AdoptToHelpImprove
MentalHealth
TheDailyWestern

WeekinReview:Vodka, LogontoLeo:
armoredtaxisanda
Tolstoysdiariesand
mapofbookstores
notebooksgoontothe
w...

ChurchoftheSavioronBlood

ENGAGEYA

70yearsafterlinkup
atElbeRiver,Russia
andUSshouldstart
dialogue
Therealreasonwhya
resurgenceof
conservatisminRussia
isdangerous
Onehundredyears
aftertheArmenian
Genocide

http://rbth.co.uk/opinion/2015/04/28/after_ukraine_the_west_should_open_its_doors_to_russia_45607.html?

3/4

28/04/2015

AfterUkraine,theWestshouldopenitsdoorstoRussia|RussiaBeyondTheHeadlines

MOBILEWEBSITE ABOUTUS PARTNERS SITEMAP ADVERTISING CONTACTS CAREERS PRIVACYPOLICY

RBTHNetwork:EnglishUSEnglishUKDeutschFranaisItalianoEnglishIndiaEspaolPortugus
HrvatskiBahasaIndonesia

http://rbth.co.uk/opinion/2015/04/28/after_ukraine_the_west_should_open_its_doors_to_russia_45607.html?

20072015RussiaBeyondTheHeadlines
aglobalmediaprojectsponsoredby:

4/4