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INDIA STRATEGY THEMATIC
Analyst contacts
Gaurav Mehta
Tel: +91 22 3043 3255
gauravmehta@ambitcapital.com
Company
Attractive Valuations*
Carborundum
CU IN Equity
Uni.
EXID IN Equity
Exide Inds.
MCap
(US$
mn)
504
2,236
JAGP IN Equity
Jagran Prakashan
659
MLIFE IN Equity
Mahindra Life.
303
REDI IN Equity
Redington India
635
SADE IN Equity
Sadbhav Engg.
TPW IN Equity
Torrent Power
1,553
373
TTAN IN Equity
Titan Inds.
4,338
Moderate Valuations**
BATA IN Equity
Bata India
1,029
NEST IN Equity
Nestle India
8,573
OBER IN Equity
Oberoi Realty
1,704
PSYS IN Equity
Persistent Sys
385
SHOP IN Equity
Shoppers Stop
670
WHIRL IN Equity
Whirlpool India
643
Rich Valuations***
APNT IN Equity
Asian Paints
BIL IN Equity
Balkrishna Inds
7,659
533
BYRCS IN Equity
CDH IN Equity
Cadila Health.
3,248
891
CRISIL IN Equity
CRISIL
1,325
EIM IN Equity
Eicher Motors
1,387
ELEQ IN Equity
Elgi Equipment
IPCA IN Equity
Ipca Labs.
281
1,156
ITC IN Equity
ITC
KJC IN Equity
Kajaria Ceramics
We find that 77 firms from the BSE500 universe pass more than two-thirds of
the tests in our greatness framework. Of these 77, only 30 firms pass our
accounting quality and corporate governance filters and have
ADV>US$0.2mn (refer to Exhibit A).
KKC IN Equity
Cummins India
2,640
LPC IN Equity
Lupin
4,791
SI IN Equity
Supreme Inds.
SKB IN Equity
GlaxoSmith C H L
2,978
Of these 30 firms, the following 8 firms trade below their five-year valuation
averages currently and look particularly attractive: Carborundum, Torrent
Power, Sadbhav Engineering, Mahindra Life, Exide, Redington, Titan and
Jagaran Prakashan. However, for the long term all 30 stocks remain
candidates to be ten baggers from our perspective (as we show in the note,
todays valuations do not have a significant effect on long term returns!).
TRP IN Equity
Torrent Pharma.
1,160
TTKPT IN Equity
TTK Prestige
40,518
315
717
749
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit
Capital may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to disclaimer section on the last page for further important disclaimer.
Strategy
CONTENTS
Philosophy and framework............................................... 3
Performance check on the January 2012s tenbaggers... 5
Quantifying Greatness..... 6
2013s ten bagger list.... 7
Valuations - A long-term perspective!.......13
Appendix: Greatness framework on smaller caps....14
Strategy
This quote appropriately captures the driving philosophy behind our greatness
framework that lies at the core of our process of identifying potential tenbaggers.
We had unveiled this framework on 19th January 2012 with the first iteration of the
Tomorrows tenbaggers note. This framework studies a firms structural strengths
by focusing not on absolutes but rather on improvements over a period of time
and the consistency of those improvements. A basic sketch of the underlying
process behind the making of a great firm has been recaptured in Exhibit 1 below.
Exhibit 1: The greatness framework
a. Investment (gross
block)
b. Conversion of
investment to sales
(asset turnover, sales)
c. Pricing discipline
(PBIT margin)
e. Cash generation
(CFO)
d. Balance sheet
discipline (D/E, cash
ratio)
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding Financial Services firms and
excluding firms with insufficient data) on our greatness score, which consists of six
equally weighted headingsinvestments, conversion to sales, pricing discipline,
balance sheet discipline, cash generation and EPS improvement, and return ratio
improvement.
Under each of these six headings, we further look at two kinds of improvements:
A complete list of factors that are considered whilst quantifying greatness have
been mentioned in Exhibit 2 on the next page.
Strategy
Exhibit 2: Factors used for quantifying greatness
Head
1 Investments
2 Conversion to sales
3 Pricing discipline
Criteria
Threshold or Medians
for BSE500 firms
(over FY07-FY12)
a.
66%
b.
3.73
a.
0.00
b.
0.00
c.
67%
d.
3.11
a.
b.
a.
(0.01)
b.
(0.02)
c.
(0.01)
d.
(0.01)
0.06%
0.00
68%
b.
0.35
c.
45%
d.
0.83
b.
c.
d.
0%
0.00
0%
0.00
Source: Ambit Capital research. * Rather than comparing one annual endpoint to another annual endpoint (say, FY07 to FY12), we prefer to average
the data out over FY07- 09 and compare that to the averaged data from FY10-12. This gives a more consistent picture of performance (as opposed to
simply comparing FY07 to FY12).
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding Financial Services firms) on this
score to arrive at this years rankings on this measure of structural strength. After
removing Financial Services firms and firms with insufficient data, 381 firms from
the BSE500 were ranked based on this measure. The highlights from the
distribution of these firms on our greatness score are displayed on page 6 but
before we go on to that, lets check whether this framework actually delivers in the
real world.
Strategy
Bloomberg Code
Price (INR)
18-Jan-12
11-Jan-13
Performance
(%)
ICRA IN Equity
857
1,396
63
Mahindra Life.
MLIFE IN Equity
255
394
54
Castrol India
CSTRL IN Equity
212
314
48
Torrent Pharma.
TRP IN Equity
559
749
34
Cadila Health.
CDH IN Equity
650
860
32
Cummins India
KKC IN Equity
392
516
32
Voltas
VOLT IN Equity
82
104
27
Bajaj Electrical
BJE IN Equity
167
208
25
Sadbhav Engg.
SADE IN Equity
113
133
17
Exide Inds.
EXID IN Equity
121
141
17
TPWR IN Equity
98
107
GSFC
GSFC IN Equity
79
70
-12
BHEL
BHEL IN Equity
273
227
-17
25.3
APNT IN Equity
2,724
4,299
58
CMC
CMC IN Equity
901
1,331
48
Titan Inds.
TTAN IN Equity
184
270
47
Elgi Equipment
ELEQ IN Equity
67
94
40
Lupin
LPC IN Equity
433
588
36
Nestle India
NEST IN Equity
4,038
4,840
20
41.3
SI IN Equity
183
303
66
GlaxoSmith C H L
ITC
SKB IN Equity
2,475
3,863
56
ITC IN Equity
210
273
30
CRISIL
CRISIL IN Equity
923
1,015
10
EID Parry
EID IN Equity
195
195
-0
Coromandel Inter
CRIN IN Equity
273
262
-4
26.4
29.4
16,451
19,664
19.5
On average, the ten baggers highlighted by us on 19th January 2012 have clocked
nearly 30% returns over the year and hence cleared the 26% threshold (which is
the CAGR that a stock needs to compound at per year to be 10x in 10 years).
Moreover, the beginning of period valuations has not made much difference to
returns as seen from the performance of the three valuation buckets. Even more
interestingly, even in a year of upswing for Indian equities (Sensex up 19.5% over
the past 12 months), this basket with an average beta of only 0.72 has beaten the
Index by 10% points, reinforcing our faith in the framework.
Strategy
Quantifying greatness
From the universe of BSE500 firms, after removing Financial Services firms and
firms with insufficient data, 381 firms were scored on the six headings highlighted
on the previous page. The cut-off for greatness was placed at 67%* and only 77
firms (20% of the total population of 381 firms) could manage a score above this
cut-off.
Exhibit 4: Distribution of firms on the greatness score (total population: 381 firms)
60
211 firms
score < 50%
Zone of greatness
93 firms
(between 50%
and 67%)
50
No. of firms
Good,
not Great
Zone of mediocrity
Only 77 firms
score > 67%
40
30
20
10
0
0%-10%
10%-20%
20%-30%
30%-40%
40%-50%
50%-60%
60%-70%
70%-80%
80%-90%
90%-100%
Greatness Score
These
scores
are
then
cumulated to arrive at a final
greatness score on 100 for
the firm.
In the next exhibit, we present key financial data on the three zones defined above
Mediocrity (211 firms), Good but not great (93 firms), and Great (77 firms) based on their degrees of greatness.
Exhibit 5: Zones of greatness - Financial summary
Mediocre
Great
Number of firms
211
93
77
509
590
795
-9%
7%
23%
15%
18%
16%
13%
20%
22%
1%
20%
32%
3%
11%
24%
14%
17%
17%
13%
19%
26%
14%
19%
27%
0.7
0.2
0.2
18.5
18.7
17.2
1.6
2.7
4.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
Source: Ambit Capital research, Capitaline; Note: All figures are based on median values of the firms analysed.
With regard to fundamentals, the superiority of the great firms compared with the
other two groups is evident in Exhibit 5. Inspite of that, on P/E and EV/EBITDA, the
great firms trade in line with the rest of the market. However, on P/B, the great
firms command a hefty premium to the rest of the market.
Of these 77 great firms, we identify the ones that perform the best on our
accounting and corporate governance filters, and this gives us our final list of 30
great companies. We present these 30 potential ten baggers in the next section.
Strategy
28 firms were removed by our accounting filter (for a full exposition of our
accounting filter, please refer to our 4th Jan 2013 note which explains how our
forensic accounting model works);
2 firms were removed for not meeting ADV requirement of US$0.2mn; and
After identifying the 30 great firms that exhibit the ingredients required to be
tomorrows winners, we run a valuation check to ascertain if they are currently
trading at reasonable prices for outright investments. In our view, whilst valuations
do matter on a tactical basis, how the underlying fundamentals evolve for the firm
over long periods plays a more important role in determining returns than the
beginning of the period valuation itself. We discuss this point in detail in the final
section of this note.
Here, we categorise these stocks into three buckets based on their relative
attractiveness on valuations with respect to their own history. We compare these
firms with respect to their five-year average valuations on three metricsP/B, P/E
and EV/EBITDA. We find 8 firms to be inexpensive (on at least two of the three
metrics): Carborundum, Torrent Power, Sadbhav Engineering, Mahindra Life,
Exide, Redington, Titan and Jagaran Prakashan. However, for the long term all
thirty stocks remain candidates to be ten baggers from our perspective (as we
show in the note, todays valuations do not have a significant effect on long term
returns!).
We have bottom-up coverage with BUYs on Redington, Sadbhav, Torrent Power,
Oberoi Realty, Asian Paints, Balkrishna Industries, Cadila Healthcare, Eicher
Motors, Cummins India and TTK Prestige.
We should also point out that 3 months ago, in our bottom-up coverage, we
turned SELLers on Exide Industries. Whilst we continue to be admirers of the firms
franchise, our SELL was driven by managements reluctance in CY12 to host postresults conference calls and its inability to offer convincing explanations for its
recent weak results when our Auto analyst, Ashvin Shetty, did speak to them
bilaterally.
Strategy
Exhibit 6: Ten baggers - Valuation perspective
Sr.
No.
Ticker
Company
MCap
(US$ mn)
P/E
P/B
Overall, cheap
on how many
counts?
Trailing valuations
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/B
EV/EBITDA
Attractive Valuations*
1
CU IN Equity
Carborundum Uni.
EXID IN Equity
Exide Inds.
504
14.4
2.7
9.6
2,236
24.1
4.3
13.6
JAGP IN Equity
MLIFE IN Equity
Jagran Prakashan
659
18.3
4.4
12.4
Mahindra Life.
303
13.4
1.4
10.5
REDI IN Equity
Redington India
635
11.1
2.4
8.2
SADE IN Equity
Sadbhav Engg.
373
23.2
1.7
11.7
TPW IN Equity
Torrent Power
1,553
9.7
1.4
8.0
TTAN IN Equity
Titan Inds.
4,338
35.9
14.2
24.8
Moderate Valuations**
9
BATA IN Equity
Bata India
1,029
27.3
9.2
19.6
10
NEST IN Equity
Nestle India
8,573
49.5
32.6
26.8
11
OBER IN Equity
Oberoi Realty
1,704
18.0
2.3
13.2
12
PSYS IN Equity
Persistent Sys
385
12.8
2.3
6.3
13
SHOP IN Equity
Shoppers Stop
670
78.4
5.5
31.5
14
WHIRL IN Equity
Whirlpool India
643
25.2
6.3
12.6
7,659
39.3
13.8
24.9
Rich Valuations***
15
APNT IN Equity
Asian Paints
16
BIL IN Equity
Balkrishna Inds
533
9.8
2.3
7.4
17
BYRCS IN Equity
891
21.9
5.6
14.6
18
CDH IN Equity
Cadila Health.
3,248
25.8
6.3
16.4
19
CRISIL IN Equity
CRISIL
1,325
33.6
18.8
21.7
20
EIM IN Equity
Eicher Motors
1,387
23.6
4.7
12.1
21
ELEQ IN Equity
Elgi Equipment
22
IPCA IN Equity
Ipca Labs.
23
ITC IN Equity
ITC
24
KJC IN Equity
Kajaria Ceramics
25
KKC IN Equity
Cummins India
26
LPC IN Equity
Lupin
27
SI IN Equity
Supreme Inds.
28
SKB IN Equity
29
30
281
23.8
3.7
13.0
1,156
20.0
4.6
12.1
40,518
32.1
10.7
21.2
315
18.7
5.5
8.4
2,640
22.9
6.2
21.2
4,791
26.3
5.9
15.1
717
15.2
5.0
8.2
GlaxoSmith C H L
2,978
41.4
13.0
26.6
TRP IN Equity
Torrent Pharma
1,160
19.1
4.7
11.3
TTKPT IN Equity
TTK Prestige
749
32.8
11.1
20.7
Strategy
Exhibit 7: Ten baggers - Financial snapshot
Sr. Bloom
No. ticker
Company
Sector
Gross
Net
PBIT
Mcap
3-yr
EPS (3- CFO (3- RoE(3- RoCE (33M ADV
Block Sales
margin
(US$
price
year
year year
year
(US$ mn)
(3-year (3-year
(3-year
mn)
CAGR
CAGR) CAGR) avg)
avg)
CAGR) CAGR)
avg)
Net
Debt FY14 FY14
Equity
P/E
P/B
(FY12)
Attractive Valuations*
1 CU IN
Carborundum
Uni.
Industrials
2 EXID IN
Exide Inds.
Auto Anc
3 JAGP IN
Jagran
Prakashan
4 MLIFE IN
Mahindra Life.
5 REDI IN
Redington India IT
6 SADE IN
7 TPW IN
Torrent Power
Utilities
8 TTAN IN
Titan Inds.
Retail
Bata India
10 NEST IN
11 OBER IN
504
0.4
21%
8%
22%
28%
62%
22%
24%
16.3
0.3
12.4
2.2
2,236
5.1
8%
12%
12%
30%
6%
26%
40%
16.4
-0.3
17.2
3.5
Media
659
0.3
-6%
36%
18%
23%
24%
28%
32%
24.7
0.5
15.4
3.7
Realty
303
0.5
5%
10%
27%
22%
19%
9%
11%
30.2
0.3
10.9
1.2
635
0.5
12%
72%
19%
22%
120%
20%
18%
2.7
1.2
8.6
1.7
373
0.3
3%
29%
38%
35%
95%
12%
12%
13.5
2.8
22.3
1.5
1,553
0.9 -15%
29%
23%
46%
34%
24%
21%
25.7
0.8
9.9
1.2
4,338
9.2
53%
10%
31%
54%
-1%
46%
61%
8.9
-0.7
26.1
9.3
Retail
1,029
4.2
65%
12%
16%
65%
-17%
25%
38%
11.5
-0.2
25.6
6.9
Nestle India
FMCG
8,573
2.4
25%
22%
20%
24%
18% 110%
141%
17.9
0.5
36.8
22.3
Oberoi Realty
Realty
1,704
0.5
9%
54%
25%
22%
39%
20%
23%
65.4
-0.3
10.0
1.8
12 PSYS IN
Persistent Sys
IT
385
1.3
10%
21%
19%
24%
27%
20%
23%
19.9
-0.4
10.0
1.7
13 SHOP IN
Shoppers St.
Retail
670
1.5
33%
30%
29%
42%
-140%
10%
11%
3.3
0.9
76.7
6.9
643
0.7
27%
7%
16%
20%
5%
38%
53%
7.1
-0.2
17.1
4.1
Moderate Valuations**
9 BATA IN
Consumer
14 WHIRL IN Whirlpool India
Durable
Rich Valuations***
15 APNT IN
Asian Paints
7,659
5.3
35%
12%
21%
36%
27%
45%
61%
15.4
-0.2
30.0
10.1
16 BIL IN
FMCG
533
0.6
41%
18%
30%
54%
-36%
30%
25%
16.9
1.2
7.4
1.6
891
0.5
33%
2%
18%
14%
46%
24%
32%
11.0
-0.5
20.4
4.2
32%
34%
27%
18.9
0.7
18.9
4.7
18 CDH IN
Cadila Health.
Pharma
3,248
2.1
25%
21%
23%
28%
19 CRISIL IN
CRISIL
Miscellaneous
1,325
0.7
31%
21%
16%
15%
16%
43%
57%
35.2
-0.6
25.6
15.9
20 EIM IN
Eicher Motors
Auto
1,387
1.4
64%
13%
49%
58%
184%
15%
31%
8.8
-1.1
17.9
3.5
21 ELEQ IN
281
0.2
27%
15%
22%
14%
14%
26%
39%
12.6
-0.4
16.3
3.0
22 IPCA IN
Ipca Labs.
Pharma
23 ITC IN
ITC
FMCG
24 KJC IN
Kajaria
Ceramics
1,156
2.4
35%
20%
22%
41%
22%
26%
25%
18.4
0.5
13.9
3.3
40,518
30.6
31%
10%
17%
21%
20%
32%
47%
23.8
-0.4
24.6
9.0
Miscellaneous
315
0.4
63%
16%
25%
108%
53%
28%
26%
12.0
1.0
12.1
3.7
25 KKC IN
2,640
1.8
20%
12%
5%
8%
24%
31%
43%
19.3
-0.4
19.8
5.4
26 LPC IN
Lupin
Pharma
4,791
8.6
28%
25%
23%
17%
6%
29%
26%
17.7
0.3
18.5
4.3
27 SI IN
Supreme Inds.
Industrials
717
0.2
58%
11%
21%
39%
16%
40%
36%
12.8
0.5
11.3
3.4
28 SKB IN
2,978
2.3
41%
6%
20%
23%
42%
31%
48%
18.5
-0.9
31.7
9.7
29 TRP IN
1,160
1.0
23%
18%
19%
15%
25%
30%
27%
17.9
-0.1
13.6
3.4
5.5 102%
39%
40%
73%
13%
49%
69%
15.6
0.1
24.2
7.6
30 TTKPT IN
TTK Prestige
Consumer
Durable
749
Strategy
Exhibit 8: Ten baggers - Forward-looking data using consensus estimates
Sr. No. Ticker
Company
CU IN Equity
Carborundum Uni.
EXID IN Equity
Exide Inds.
JAGP IN Equity
4
5
Mcap
(US$ mn)
3-month ADV
(US$ mn)
504
0.4
9%
17%
2,236
5.1
28%
16%
Jagran Prakashan
659
0.3
14%
12%
MLIFE IN Equity
Mahindra Life.
303
0.5
17%
11%
REDI IN Equity
Redington India
635
0.5
20%
23%
SADE IN Equity
Sadbhav Engg.
373
0.3
9%
8%
TPW IN Equity
Torrent Power
1,553
0.9
5%
12%
TTAN IN Equity
Titan Inds.
4,338
9.2
24%
31%
BATA IN Equity
Bata India
1,029
4.2
29%
25%
10
NEST IN Equity
Nestle India
8,573
2.4
21%
25%
11
OBER IN Equity
Oberoi Realty
1,704
0.5
39%
18%
12
PSYS IN Equity
Persistent Sys
385
1.3
17%
20%
13
SHOP IN Equity
Shoppers Stop
670
1.5
80%
9%
14
WHIRL IN Equity
Whirlpool India
643
0.7
21%
29%
15
APNT IN Equity
Asian Paints
7,659
5.3
20%
23%
16
BIL IN Equity
Balkrishna Inds.
533
0.6
21%
27%
17
BYRCS IN Equity
891
0.5
31%
20%
18
CDH IN Equity
Cadila Health.
3,248
2.1
21%
22%
19
CRISIL IN Equity
CRISIL
1,325
0.7
11%
25%
20
EIM IN Equity
Eicher Motors
1,387
1.4
19%
16%
21
ELEQ IN Equity
Elgi Equipment
281
0.2
21%
15%
22
IPCA IN Equity
Ipca Labs.
1,156
2.4
26%
24%
23
ITC IN Equity
ITC
40,518
30.6
19%
14%
24
KJC IN Equity
Kajaria Ceramics
315
0.4
32%
28%
25
KKC IN Equity
Cummins India
2,640
1.8
12%
7%
26
LPC IN Equity
Lupin
4,791
8.6
23%
23%
27
SI IN Equity
Supreme Inds.
717
0.2
21%
26%
28
SKB IN Equity
GlaxoSmith C H L
2,978
2.3
20%
19%
29
TRP IN Equity
Torrent Pharma
1,160
1.0
25%
24%
30
TTKPT IN Equity
TTK Prestige
749
5.5
25%
36%
10
Strategy
Exhibit 9: Tenbaggers - Business activity description
Sr.
Ticker
no.
Company
Business Description
CU IN Equity
Carborundum
Uni.
Carborundum Universal manufactures refractories and electromineral grains. The company produces
coated and bonded abrasives, super refractories, aluminum oxide grains, calcined bauxite,
electrocast refractories, silicon carbide grains, and industrial ceramic products.
EXID IN Equity
Exide Inds.
Exide Industries manufactures a wide range of lead and electric storage batteries. The company's
makes batteries for automobiles, railways, aircrafts, power stations, telephone exchanges, and other
uses.
JAGP IN Equity
Jagran Prakashan
Jagran Prakashan publishes a daily newspaper. The company publishes and distributes Dainik
Jagran.
Mahindra Lifespace Developers specialises in the construction and operation of commercial and
residential property complexes, projects management services and business centres.
REDI IN Equity
Redington (India) is a supply chain solution provider. The company distributes information technology
(IT) products and mobile handsets and accessories and provides logistics, supply chain management
and other support services.
Sadbhav Engineering provides construction services, with a focus on irrigation, roads and highways,
and mining operations. The company constructs earthen dams and canals, rehabilitates and
upgrades roads, and excavates overburden of mineral properties.
TPW IN Equity
Torrent Power generates, transmits and distributes power. The company also implements large power
projects in India.
Titan Industries manufactures and retails jewellery and watches. The company produces quartz
analogue electronic watches, watch movements, step motors, and watch cases. Titan Industries
serves customers across the United States.
BATA IN Equity
Bata India
Bata India manufactures a wide range of leather, rubber/canvas and plastic footwear products. The
company also manufactures sports apparel and leather accessories. Bata India sells its products
through its chain of company owned retail stores in India, as well as to businesses in the US, United
Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.
Nestle India
Nestle India manufactures branded milk products and other food products. The company's products
include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and
Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched
glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces.
10
NEST IN Equity
Redington India
Torrent Power
11
Oberoi Realty is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai and focused on premium
developments. The company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified
portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the
respective income or market segment.
12
PSYS IN Equity
Persistent Systems offers outsourced software product development. The company offer services that
include testing, support, and professional services.
13
Shoppers Stop operates a chain of retail shops. The company retails men's, women's, and children's
clothing, cosmetics and skin and hair-care products, home appliances, housewares, linens, luggage,
jewellery, and accessories.
14
Whirlpool of India manufactures appliances. The company produces refrigerators, washing machines,
air conditioners, microwave ovens, water purifiers, built-in appliances and other products.
15
Asian Paints manufactures a wide range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black &
synthetic resins. The company, through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial
chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products, which are used in the manufacture of rubber tyres.
16
BIL IN Equity
Balkrishna Industries manufactures automobile tyres and tubes. The company also manufactures
different varieties of paper & paper boards and processes synthetic textiles.
17
Bayer Cropscience is involved in the area of crop protection, non-agricultural pest-control, seed and
plant biotechnology.
18
CDH IN Equity
Cadila Healthcare manufactures and markets healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active
pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, diagnostics, health and dietetic foods, animal healthcare to
cosmeceuticals. The company's products are available in the form of tablets, capsules, injections,
liquids, dry syrups, powders, granules, and ointments.
19
Crisil operates a credit rating agency in India. The company specialises in the areas of risk
identification, classification and assessment, across a broad spectrum of industries.
20
EIM IN Equity
Eicher Motors manufactures light commercial vehicles, which are sold domestically and are also
exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures tractors, two-wheelers and automotive
gears.
Persistent Sys
Balkrishna Inds
Cadila Health.
Eicher Motors
11
Strategy
Sr.
Ticker
no.
Company
Business Description
21
ELEQ IN Equity
Elgi Equipment
Elgi Equipments manufactures reciprocating and screw-type air compressors, diesel engines,
generators and pumps, garage equipment, auto products, and heat pressure cleaners. Elgi markets a
range of wheel balancers, oil suction units, AC recovery plants, mobile service units, and pasteuriser
and bottle washers. The company operates in India and markets its products globally.
22
IPCA IN Equity
Ipca Labs.
Ipca Laboratories operates a pharmaceutical company, which distributes products to more than 75
countries worldwide. The Group's products include finished dosage forms, drug delivery systems, bulk
drugs and intermediates.
23
ITC IN Equity
ITC
ITC has a diversified presence in cigarettes, hotels, paperboards & specialty papers, packaging, agri
business, packaged foods & confectionery, branded apparel, greeting cards, and other FMCG
products.
24
KJC IN Equity
Kajaria Ceramics
Kajaria Ceramics manufactures glazed and unglazed ceramic tiles. The company sells its products in
India and also exports them to other countries.
Cummins India
Cummins India manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas
turbine and gasoline engines. The company also manufactures power generation sets and public
transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and airfield buses. In addition,
Cummins India operates a computerised and fully-equipped research and development facility.
25
KKC IN Equity
26
LPC IN Equity
Lupin
Lupin manufactures bulk actives and formulations. Its principal bulk actives manufactured include
Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and cardiovasculars.
The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are made out of
plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine.
27
SI IN Equity
Supreme Inds.
Supreme Industries manufactures industrial and engineered moulded products and storage and
material handling crates. The company also manufactures chemicals, multi-layer sheets, multi-layer
films, packaging films and expanded polyethylene foam, PVC pipes and fittings, moulded furniture,
and disposable EPS containers.
28
SKB IN Equity
Glaxo SmithKline Consumer Healthcare manufactures and sells malted milk food products. The
GlaxoSmith C H L Group's products, which include energy & protein products, cereals, baby foods, and ghee & butter,
are sold under the brand names Horlicks, Boost, Viva, Brylcream, Eno, Maltova and Gopika.
29
TRP IN Equity
Torrent Pharma
30
Torrent Pharmaceuticals manufactures bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations. The company's
formulations include cardiovascular, psychotropic and antibiotic drugs whilst its bulk drugs include
atenolol, ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin. Torrent Pharmaceuticals has wholly owned subsidiaries in
several regulated and less-regulated international markets.
TTK Prestige manufactures a range of domestic appliances. The Group's products include pressure
cookers and non-stick cookware, stainless steel and glass vacuum flasks, and gas stoves.
Source: Bloomberg
12
Strategy
FY02-FY12 returns
40%
R2 = 0.000
20%
0%
-20%
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-40%
-60%
-80%
FY02 Price to Book
Source: Ambit Capital research, FY02 FY12 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex
The value of R-square makes the story self-explanatory. A zero for this value
indicates that the beginning of period valuations do not play any meaningful role
in explaining stock returns over the next ten years. This holds true for both P/B and
P/E as the measures of valuation.
Exhibit 11: Valuation impact on long-term returns - P/E
60%
FY02-FY12 returns
40%
R2 = 0.001
20%
0%
-20%
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
-40%
-60%
-80%
FY02 Price to Earnings
Source: Ambit Capital research, FY02 FY12 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex
In our note The return of value investing (dated 11th October 2012), we had
explained why we expect value stocks to do well over the next few quarters.
Hence, from this list of Great 30 stocks, we would expect the most attractively
priced bucket to do better over the immediate term. However, the two exhibits
above clearly suggest that from a long-term perspective each of these stocks stand
a fair chance of being a ten bagger. Indeed, as mentioned on page 5, our 2012
ten baggers did not have any correlation between the returns generated over the
past 12 months and the beginning of period valuations.
13
Strategy
VO IN
HMVL IN
MUNI IN
Company
FY13 P/E
(est)
FY13 P/B
(est)
Vinati Organics
139
0.1
10.4
3.0
Hindustan Media
202
0.0
13.7
2.1
97
0.1
12.8
4.3
0.3
4.1
0.9
NA
Mayur Uniquote
ICSL IN
Infinite Comp
104
CLRC IN
Clariant Chemical
302
0.1
NA
PI IN
P I Inds.
295
0.2
15.0
4.0
HAWK IN
Hawkins Cookers
232
0.1
55.2
22.2
ZENT IN
Zensar Tech.
220
0.2
6.4
1.5
AJP IN
Ajanta Pharma
173
0.2
9.4
2.4
10
GDYR IN
Goodyear India
142
0.1
14.0
2.2
11
SWE IN
Swaraj Engines
116
0.2
11.0
2.8
12
CRS IN
Cera Sanitary.
102
0.2
13.6
3.1
Sequent Scien.
95
0.1
NA
NA
Kewal Kir.Cloth.
164
0.0
16.7
3.5
Speciality Rest.
156
0.6
NA
NA
Styrolution ABS
236
0.1
20.4
3.0
Federal-Mogul
203
0.0
28.2*
2.6*
13
14
15
16
17
SEQ IN
KEKC IN
SRL IN
STAL IN
FMGI IN
14
Strategy
(022) 30433174
saurabhmukherjea@ambitcapital.com
Research
Analysts
Industry Sectors
Desk-Phone
Aadesh Mehta
Banking / NBFCs
(022) 30433239
E-mail
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Achint Bhagat
Cement
(022) 30433178
achintbhagat@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433211
ankurrudra@ambitcapital.com
Ashvin Shetty
Automobile
(022) 30433285
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bhargavbuddhadev@ambitcapital.com
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Construction / Infrastructure
(022) 30433203
chhaviagarwal@ambitcapital.com
Dayanand Mittal
(022) 30433202
dayanandmittal@ambitcapital.com
Gaurav Mehta
(022) 30433255
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(022) 30433259
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Jatin Kotian
(022) 30433261
jatinkotian@ambitcapital.com
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(022) 30433251
karankhanna@ambitcapital.com
Krishnan ASV
Banking
(022) 30433205
vkrishnan@ambitcapital.com
Nitin Bhasin
(022) 30433241
nitinbhasin@ambitcapital.com
Nitin Jain
Technology
(022) 30433291
nitinjain@ambitcapital.com
NBFCs
(022) 30433206
pankajagarwal@ambitcapital.com
Pratik Singhania
(022) 30433264
pratiksinghania@ambitcapital.com
Parita Ashar
(022) 30433223
paritaashar@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433201
rakshitranjan@ambitcapital.com
Economy / Strategy
(022) 30433175
ritikamankar@ambitcapital.com
Ritu Modi
(022) 30433292
ritumodi@ambitcapital.com
Shariq Merchant
Consumer
(022) 30433246
shariqmerchant@ambitcapital.com
Utsav Mehta
Telecom / Media
(022) 30433209
utsavmehta@ambitcapital.com
Sales
Name
Regions
Desk-Phone
Deepak Sawhney
India / Asia
(022) 30433295
deepaksawhney@ambitcapital.com
Dharmen Shah
India / Asia
(022) 30433289
dharmenshah@ambitcapital.com
Dipti Mehta
(022) 30433053
diptimehta@ambitcapital.com
USA
(022) 30433169
pareespurohit@ambitcapital.com
India / Asia
(022) 30433228
pramodgubbi@ambitcapital.com
Sarojini Ramachandran
UK / USA
sarojini@panmure.com
Production
Sajid Merchant
Production
(022) 30433247
sajidmerchant@ambitcapital.com
Joel Pereira
Editor
(022) 30433284
joelpereira@ambitcapital.com
15
Strategy
Expected return
(over 12-month period from date of initial rating)
Buy
>5%
Sell
<5%
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