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Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 783 Papineau residents by Smart IVR on

September 17, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.
Margin of error: +/- 3.49%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by
geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

TRUDEAU LEADS NARROWLY IN PAPINEAU


September 19, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Justin Trudeau leads
narrowly over the NDPs Anne Lagac Dowson. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of
error of +/- 3.49%, 19 times out of 20.
Justin Trudeau leads his home riding of Papineau by 5 percent over his main challenger, the NDP
among all voters with the Bloc and Conservatives tied in single digits with 9% respectively, said
Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
Among decided and leaning voters, Trudeau leads 41% to 36% for the NDP candidate Lagac
Dowson. The Bloc has 12% and the Conservatives just 11%.
These results are consistent with our recent polling of Montreal where we found a tight race
between the NDP and Liberals. A similar pattern emerges in Papineau where the NDP leads
among Francophones slightly, and the Liberals enjoy a substantial lead among anglophones.
One pattern that is not consistent with other Mainstreet polling is in the strength of the vote. 82%
of Liberals voters indicated they are strong supporters of Trudeau with just 8% saying they might
change their mind. When compared to Lagac Dowson, only 61% of NDP supporters indicated
they were strong supporters of and 28% said they might change their mind. That is not surprising
in Trudeaus home riding, finished Maggi.
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

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Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Vadnais

YVON VADNAIS (CPC)


ANNE LAGAC DOWSON (NDP)
JUSTIN TRUDEAU (LPC)
MAXIME CLAVEAU (BQ)
UNDECIDED

12%

41%

Decided & Leaning

Lagac Dowson

YVON VADNAIS (CPC)


ANNE LAGAC DOWSON (NDP)
JUSTIN TRUDEAU (LPC)
MAXIME CLAVEAU (BQ)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

36%

11%

21%

9%

33%

28%

9%

Trudeau

Claveau

Undecided

French English 18-34 35-49 50-64


7%
7%
14%
6%
4%
31%
16%
32% 32%
27%
27%
54%
29% 28%
37%
13%
2%
7%
13%
9%
21%
22%
18%
21%
23%
616
167
94
261
240
Certain
Likely
7%
15%
30%
22%
34%
26%
9%
13%
20%
23%

65+ Male Female


9% 12%
6%
17% 28% 28%
44% 31% 35%
9% 10%
8%
21% 18% 23%
188 338 445
Might
Unlikely
6%
17%
18%
23%
41%
26%
4%
11%
31%
23%

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And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

4%

21%

48%

20%

7%

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a


chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
81%
13%
6%

NDP
61%
28%
13%

LPC
82%
8%
10%

BQ
45%
37%
18%

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SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Yvon Vadnais and the Conservative Party
Anne Lagac Dowson and the NDP
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party
Maxime Claveau and the Bloc Qubcois
Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Yvon Vadnais and the Conservative Party
Anne Lagac Dowson and the NDP
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party
Maxime Claveau and the Bloc Qubcois
Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,


or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved