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IIT Hyderabad

Probability and Random Processes

Homework Solutions: 1

1. How many people have to be in a room in order that the probability that at least two of them

celebrate their birthday in the same month is at least 1/2? Assume that all possible monthly

outcomes are equally likely.

Ans: The probability that at least two people share the same birthday is the complement of the

probability that no two people have the same birthday (or that all people have distinct birthdays).

Let En the the event that n people have at least one birthday in common. Based on the above if n =

2 then the probability that at least two people share the same birthday is: P(E2) = 1 11

. That three

12

10

10

people share the same birthday is: P(E3) = 1 ( 11

)(

)=

1

.

That

4

people

share

the

same

12

11

12

10

9

9

birthday is: P(E4) = 1 ( 11

)

(

)=

1

.

12

11

10

12

1)

Thus, the pattern for general n is: P(En) = 1 12(

= 1 13

.

12

12

We want to pick n such that P(En) 1/2 . From the above when we solve for n, this means that n 5

2. (Radar Detection.) If an aircraft is present in a certain area, a radar correctly registers its presence

with probability 0.99. If it is not present, the radar falsely registers an aircraft presence with

probability 0.10. We assume that an aircraft is present with probability 0.05. What is the probability

of false alarm (a false indication of aircraft presence), and the probability of missed detection

(nothing registers, even though an aircraft is present)?

Ans: Let A and B be the events

A = {an aircraft is present},

B = {the radar generates an alarm}

And consider their complements as

Ac= {an aircraft is not present},

Bc= {the radar does not generate an alarm}

P(not present, false alarm) = P(Ac B) = P(Ac)P(B|Ac) = (0.95)(0.10) = 0.095

P(present, no detection) = P(A Bc) = P(A)P(Bc|A) = (0.05)(0.01) = 0.0005

3. A class consisting of 4 graduate and 12 undergraduate students is randomly divided into 4 groups of

4. What is the probability that each group includes a graduate student?

Ans: Let us denote the four graduate students by 1, 2, 3, 4, and consider the events

A1 = {students 1 and 2 are in different groups},

A2 = {students 1, 2, and 3 are in different groups},

A3 = {students 1, 2, 3, and 4 are in different groups}.

Using the multiplication rule:

P(A3) = P(A1 A2 A3) = P(A1)P(A2 | A1)P(A3 | A1 A2).

We have P(A1) = 12/15 , since there are 12 student slots in groups other than the one of student 1,

and there are 15 student slots overall, excluding student 1.

Similarly, P(A2 | A1) = 8/14 ,

Since ,there are 8 student slots in groups other than those of students 1 and 2, and there are 14

student slots, excluding students 1 and 2.

Also, P(A3 | A1 A2) = 4/13 , since there are 4 student slots in groups other than those of students

1, 2, and 3, and there are 13 student slots, excluding students 1, 2, and 3. Thus, the desired

8

probability is 12

(134 )

15

14

4. Lets say you enter a Chess tournament. The probability of winning a game against half the players

is 0.3, the probability of winning against one quarter of them is 0.4 and the probability of winning

against the remaining one quarter is 0.5. Let's say you play against a randomly chosen opponent.

What is your probability of winning?

Ans: Let A be the event of playing with opponent of type i. We have,

P(A1)= 0.5, P(A2)= 0.25, P(A3)= 0.25

Let B be the event of winning.

P(B|A1)=0.3, P(B|A1)=0.4, P(B|A1)=0.5

Thus, by the total probability theorem, the probability of winning is

P(B) = P(A1 )P(B I A1) + P (A2)P(B I A2) + P (A3)P(B I A3)

= 0.5 * 0.3 + 0.25 * 0.4 + 0.25 * 0.5

= 0.375

5. Alice is taking a probability class and in each week, she can be either up-to-date or she may have

fallen behind. If she is up-to-date in a given week, the probability that she will be up-to-date the

following week is 0.9. If she is behind in the given week, the probability that she will be up-to-date

the following week is 0.4. Given that she is up-to-date this week, what is the probability that

a) She is up-to-date next week, behind the following week and up-to-date the week following that?

b) She is up-to-date three weeks later?

Ans: Let Ui and Bi be the events that Alice is up-to-date or behind, respectively, after i weeks.

According to the total probability theorem, the desired probability P(U3) is given by

P(U3)=P(U2)P(U3|U2) + P(B2)P(U3|B2) = P(U2)*0.9 + P(B1)*0.4

The probabilities P(U2) and P (B2) can also be calculated using the total probability theorem:

P(U2 ) = P(U1) P(U2|U1) + P (B1) P(U2|B1) = P(U1) *0.9 + P(B1)*0.4,

P(B2 ) = P(U1) P(B2|U1) + P (B1) P(B2|B1) = P(U1) *0.2 + P(B1)*0.6,

Finally since Alice starts her class up-to-Date, we have

P(U1) = 0.9, P(B1 ) = 0.1.

We can now combine the preceding three equations to obtain

P(U2) = 0.9 * 0.9 + 0.1 * 0.4 = 0.85,

P(B2) = 0.9 * 0.1 + 0.1 * 0.6 = 0.15, and by using the above probabilities in the formula for P(U3):

P(U3 ) = 0.72 * 0.9 + 0.28 * 0.4 = 0.825

6. (Network Connectivity). A computer network connects two nodes A and B through intermediate

nodes C, D, E, F as shown in figure below. For every pair of directly connected nodes, say i and j,

there is a given probability pij that the link from i to j is up. We assume that the link failures are

independent of each other. What is the probability that there is a path connecting A and B in which

all links are up?

Ans: Let a subsystem consist of components 1 , 2, . . ., m, and let Pi be the probability that component i

is up.

P(series subsystem succeeds) = P1P2.......Pm

P(parallel subsystem succeeds) = 1 - P(parallel subsystem fails) = 1 - ( 1 P1 )( 1 P2 ) ( 1 Pm )

P(C B) = 1- (1- P( CE and EB)) ( 1- P(CF and FB))

= 1 (1-0.8*0.9)(1-0.95*0.85) = 0.946

P(AB) = 1- (1- P(AC and CB))(1-P(AD and DB))

= 1- (1- 0.9*0.946)(1-0.75*0.95) = 0.957

7. Benferronis Inequality:

a) Prove that for any two events A and B, we have

P(A B) P(A) + P(B) 1

Ans: P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)

We know that P(AB) 1

So we can prove P(A B) P(A) + P(B) 1.

b) Generalize to the case of n events A1, A2 ,. An , by showing that

P(A1 A2 A3 ......... An) P(A1) + P(A2) + .P(An) - (n-1)

Ans: We can prove it by using induction as follows:

For n=1, we have P(A1) P(A1) which is true

For n=2, we have P(A1A2) P(A1)+ P(A2) -1 which is true as proved in part (a)

For n=k, we assume P(A1 A2 A3 ......... Ak) P(A1) + P(A2) + .P(Ak) - (k-1) is true

Thus for n=k+1, we have

P((A1 A2 A3 ......... Ak)) Ak+1) P(A1 A2 A3 ......... Ak) + P(Ak+1) 1 [From part (a)]

P(A1) + P(A2) + .P(Ak) - (k-1) + P(Ak+1) 1

P(A1) + P(A2) + .P(An) - (k)

Hence, it is true for all n.

8. (The False-Positive Puzzle). A test for a certain rare disease is assumed to be correct 95% of the

time: if a person has the disease, the test results are positive with probability 0.95, and if the

person does not have the disease, the test results are negative with probability 0.95. A random

person drawn from a certain population has probability 0.001 of having the disease. Given that the

person just tested positive, what is the probability of having the disease?

Ans: If A is the event that the person has the diseases, and B is the event that the test results are

positive, the desired probability. P(A|B) is

(| )

0.001 (0.95)

= +

= 0.001 0.95

= 0.0187

(| )

+ 0.999 (0.05)

9. We roll two fair 6-sided dice. Each one of the 36 possible outcomes is assumed to be equally likely.

(a) Find the probability that doubles is rolled.

Ans: Each possible outcome has probability 1/36. There are 6 possible outcomes that are doubles,

so the probability of doubles is 6/36 = 1/6.

(b)Given that the roll results in a sum of 4 or less, find the conditional probability that doubles are

rolled.

Ans: The conditioning event (sum is 4 or less) consists of the 6 outcomes

{(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (2, 1), (2, 2), (3, 1)}

2 of which are doubles, so the conditional probability of doubles is 2/6 = 1/3.

Ans: There are 11 possible outcomes with at least one 6, namely, (6, 6), (6,i), and (i, 6), for i = 1,

2,..., 5. Thus, the probability that at least one die is a 6 is 11/36.

(d) Given that the two dice land on different numbers, find the conditional probability that at least

one die roll is a 6.

Ans: There are 30 possible outcomes where the dice land on different numbers. Out of these, there

are 10 outcomes in which at least one of the rolls is a 6. Thus, the desired conditional probability is

10/30 = 1/3.

10. Alice and Bob have 2n + 1 coins, each coin with probability of heads equal to 1/2. Bob tosses n+ 1

coins, while Alice tosses the remaining n coins. Assuming independent coin tosses, show that the

probability that after all coins have been tossed, Bob will have gotten more heads than Alice is 1/2.

Ans: Let B be the event that Bob tosses more heads. Let X be the event that after each has tossed n of

their coins, Bob has more heads than Alice, let Y be the event that under the same conditions, Alice

has more heads than Bob, and let Z be the event that they have the same number of heads.

Since the coins are fair, we have P(X) = P(Y), and also P(Z) = 1 P(X) P(Y).

Furthermore, we see that

P(B | X) = 1,

P(B | Y) = 0,

P(B | Z) = 1/2

Now we have, using the total probability theorem,

P(B) = P(X) P(B | X) + P(Y) P(B | Y) + P(Z) P(B | Z)

= P(X) + ()P(Z)

=()[P(X) + P(Y) + P(Z)]

=1/2 as required.

11. An urn contains m red and n white balls.

(a) We draw two balls randomly and simultaneously. Describe the sample space and calculate the

probability that the selected balls are of different color, by using two approaches: a counting

approach based on the discrete uniform law, and a sequential approach based on the

multiplication rule.

Ans: We number the red balls from 1 to m, and the white balls from m + 1 to m + n. One

possible sample space consists of all pairs of integers (i, j) with 1 i, j m + n and i j. The total

number of possible outcomes is (m + n)(m + n 1). The number of outcomes corresponding to

red-white selection, (i.e., i {1, . . . , m} and j {m + 1, . . . , m + n}) is mn. The number of

outcomes corresponding to white-red selection, (i.e., i {m + 1, . . . , m + n} and j {1, . . . , m})

is also mn. Thus, the desired probability that the balls are of different color is

2

+ (+1)

Alternatively, Possible sample space consists of all the possible ordered color pairs, i.e.,

{RR, RW, WR, WW}.

We then have to calculate the probability of the event {RW, WR}.

We consider a sequential description of the experiment, i.e., we first select the first ball

and then the second. In the first stage, the probability of a red ball is m/(m+ n). In the

second stage, the probability of a red ball is either m/(m + n 1) or (m 1)/(m + n 1)

depending on whether the first ball was white or red, respectively. Therefore, using the

multiplication rule, we have

=

. +1

.

+ 1+

=

2

+ ( + 1)

(b) We roll a fair 3-sided die whose faces are labeled 1 ,2,3, and if k comes up. We remove k balls

from the urn at random and put them aside. Describe the sample space and calculate the

probability that all of the balls drawn are red. Using a divide-and-conquer approach and the

Ans:We calculate the conditional probability of all balls being red, given any of the possible values

of k. We have P(R | k = 1) = m/(m + n) and, as found in part (a), P(RR | k = 2) = m(m 1)/(m +

n)(m 1 + n). Arguing sequentially as in part (a),we also have P(RRR | k = 3) = m(m 1)(m

2)/(m + n)(m 1 + n)(m 2 + n). According to the total probability theorem, the desired answer

is

1

(

3 +

1

+ +1

1 ( 2)

)

+ +1 ( +2)

12. (Hypergeometric probabilities) An urn contains n balls, out of which m are red. We select k of the

balls at random, without replacement (i.e., selected balls are not put back into the urn before the

next selection). What is the probability that i of the selected balls are red?

Ans: The sample space consists of the nCk diffrent ways that we can select k out of the available

balls. For the event of interest to occur, we have to select i out of the m red balls, which can be

done in mCi ways and also select k - i out of the n - m balls that are not red, which can be done in

(n-m)C(k-i) ways. Therefore, the desired probability is

()

for i 0 satisfying im, ik and k-i n-m. For all other i, the probability is zero.

13. Bill and George go target shooting together. Both shoot at a target at the same time. Suppose Bill

hits the target with probability 0.7, whereas George, independently, hits the target with probability

0.4.

(a) Given that exactly one shot hit the target, what is the probability that it was Georges shot?

Ans: P(exactly one shot hit)= P(B)P(GC) + P(G)P(BC) = 0.7*0.6+0.4*0.3 = 0.54

P(G/one hit)= P(G)P(BC)/0.54= 0.4*0.3/0.54=2/9

(b) Given that the target is hit, what is the probability that George hit it?

Ans: P(target hit) = P(B)P(GC) + P(G)P(BC) + P(G)P(B) = 0.54 + 0.7*0.4 = 0.82

P(G/target hit) = [P(G)P(B) + P(G)P(BC)]/0.82 = 20/41

14. Celine is undecided as to whether to take a French course or a chemistry course. She estimates that

her probability of receiving an A grade would be 1/2 in a French course and 2/3 in a chemistry

course. If Celine decides to base her decision on the flip of a fair coin, what is the probability that

she gets an A in chemistry?

Ans: Let the event that Celine takes chemistry and A denote the event that she receives an A in

whatever course she takes, then the desired probability is P(CA), which is calculated as follows:

P(C)P(A|C) = (1/2)(2/3) = 1/3

15. In answering a question on a multiple-choice test, a student either knows the answer or guesses.

Let p be the probability that the student knows the answer and 1 p be the probability that the

student guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability

1/m, where m is the number of multiple-choice alternatives. What is the conditional probability 1

that a student knew the answer to a question given that he or she answered it correctly?

Ans: Let C and K denote, respectively, the events that the student answers the question correctly and

the event that he or she actually knows the answer. Now,

( )

P(K|C) = +

=

=

1

1+ 1

( )

+

(1 )

For example, if m = 5, p = 1/2, then the probability that the student knew the answer to a question

he or she answered correctly is 5/6.

16. At a certain stage of a criminal investigation, the inspector in charge is 60 percent convinced of the

guilt of a certain suspect. Suppose, however, that a new piece of evidence which shows that the

criminal has a certain characteristic (such as left-handedness, baldness, or brown hair) is

uncovered. If 20 percent of the population possesses this characteristic, how certain of the guilt of

the suspect should the inspector now be if it turns out that the suspect has the characteristic?

Ans: Letting G denote the event that the suspect is guilty and C the event that he possesses the

characteristic of the criminal, we have

( )

P(G|C) = P(Gc)/P(C) = +

= 1(0.6) .882

( ) 1 0.6 + .2 (.4)

17. A bin contains 3 different types of disposable flashlights. The probability that a type 1 flashlight will

give over 100 hours of use is .7, with the corresponding probabilities for type 2 and type 3

flashlights being .4 and .3, respectively. Suppose that 20 percent of the flashlights in the bin are

type 1, 30 percent are type 2, and 50 percent are type 3.

(a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen flashlight will give more than 100 hours of use?

Ans: Let A denote the event that the flashlight chosen will give over 100 hours of use, and let F j

be the event that a type j flashlight is chosen, j = 1, 2, 3. To compute P(A), we condition on the

type of the flashlight, to obtain P(A) = P(A|F1)P(F1)+P(A|F2)P(F2)+P(A|F3)P(F3) =

(.7)(.2)+(.4)(.3)+(.3)(.5) = .41

(b) Given that a flashlight lasted over 100 hours, what is the conditional probability that it was a

type j flashlight, j = 1, 2, 3?

Ans: The probability is obtained by using Bayes formula:

P(Fj |A) = P(AFj)/ P(A) = P(A|Fj)P(Fj) /.41

Thus,P(F1|A) = (.7)(.2)/.41 = 14/41, P(F2|A) = (.4)(.3)/.41 = 12/41, P(F3|A) = (.3)(.5)/.41 = 15/41.

18. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two distinct classes: those who are

accident prone and those who are not. During any given year, an accident-prone person will have

an accident with probability .4, whereas the corresponding figure for a person who is not prone to

accidents is .2. It is assumed that 30 percent of the population is accident prone. What is the

conditional probability that a new policyholder will have an accident in his or her second year of

policy ownership, given that the policyholder has had an accident in the first year?

Ans: If we let A be the event that the policyholder is accident prone and we let A i , i = 1, 2, be the event

that he or she has had an accident in the ith year, then the desired probability P(A2|A1) may be

obtained by conditioning on whether or not the policyholder is accident prone, as:

P(A2|A1) = P(A2|AA1)P(A|A1) + P(A2|AcA1)P(Ac|A1).

Now, P(A|A1) = P(A1A) P(A1) = P(A1|A)P(A) P(A1) .

However, P(A) is assumed as 3/10.

Also, P(A1) = P(A1|A)P(A) + P(A1|Ac )P(Ac ) = (.4)(.3) + (.2)(.7) = .26.

Hence, P(A|A1) = (.4)(.3) /.26 = 6/13.

Thus, P(AC |A1) = 1 P(A|A1) = 7/13.

Since P(A2|AA1) = .4 and P(A2|AcA1) = .2, it follows that

P(A2|A1) = (.4)(6/13) + (.2)(7/13) .29

19. Two manufacturing plants produce similar parts. Plant 1 produces 1000 parts, 100 of which are

defective. Plant 2 produces 2000 parts, 150 of which are defective. A part is selected at random and

found to be defective. What is the probability that it came from plant 1 ?

Ans: Let B be the event that the part selected is defective and let A be the event that the part

selected came from plant 1. Then A B is the event that the item selected is defective and came

from plant 1. Since a part is selected at random, we assume equally likely events, we have P(A B)

100

250

= 3000

=301 . Similarly, since there are 3000 parts and 250 of them are defective, we have P(B) = 3000

=

1/12.Then the probability that the selected part came from plant 1 is: P(A|B) = P(AB)/ P(B) =

1

( )

30

1

( )

12

2/5.

20. A number is selected at random from (1, 2, . . . , 100). Given that the number selected is divisible by

2, find the probability that it is divisible by 3 or 5.

Ans: Let

A2 = event that the number is divisible by 2

A5 = event that the number is divisible by 5

Then the desired probability is:

P(A3 A5|A2) = P((A3 A5) A2) /P(A2)

= (P[(A3 A2) (A5 A2)] )/P(A2)

= (P(A3 A2) + P(A5 A2) P(A3 A5 A2)) /P(A2)

Now A3 A2 = event that the number is divisible by 6

A5 A2 = event that the number is divisible by 10

A3 A5 A2 = event that the number is divisible by 30 and

P(A3 A2) = 16/100, P(A5 A2) = 10/100 and P(A3 A5 A2) = 3/100.

Thus, P(A3 A5|A2) =

16

10

3

+

(

)

100

100

100

(50/100 )

= 23/50 = 0.46.

21. Show that if three events A, B, and C are independent, then A and (B C) are independent.

Ans: P[A (B C)] = P[(A B) (A C)]

= P(A B) + P(A C) P(A B C)

= P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(C) P(A)P(B)P(C) (Bcoz A, B and C are independent )

= P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(C) P(A)P(B C)

= P(A)[P(B) + P(C) P(B C)]

= P(A)P(B C)

Thus, A and (B C) are independent

22. An urn contains 6 white and 9 black balls. If 4 balls are to be randomly selected without

replacement, what is the probability that the first 2 selected are white and the last 2 black?

Ans: We have that P = (6C2 9C2/15C4) is the probability of drawing two white balls and two black balls

independently of the order of the draws. Since we are concerned with the probability of an ordered

sequence of draws we should enumerate these. Let W by the event that the first two balls are

white and B the event that the second two balls are black. Then we desire the probability P(W B)

= P(W)P(B|W). Now P(W) = 6C2/15C2 = 15/105 0.152. and P(B|W) = 9C2 /13C2 = 36/78 0.461, so

that P(W B) = 0.0659

23. A retail establishment accepts either the American Express or the VISA credit card. A total of 24

percent of its customers carry an American Express card, 61 percent carry a VISA card, and 11

percent carry both cards. What percentages of its customers carry a credit card that the

establishment will accept?

Ans : Let A be the event that a person carries the American Express card and B be the event that a

person carries the VISA card. Then we want to evaluate P(A B), the probability that a person

carries the American Express card or the person carries the VISA card. This can be calculated as

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = 0.24 + 0.61 0.11 = 0.74.

24. Compute the probability that a hand of 13 cards contains the ace and king of at least one suit.

Ans: We want the probability that a given hand of bridge has the ace and king in at least one suit. Let Ei

be the event that the hand has an ace and a king in the suit i for i = 1, 2, 3, 4. Then the probability

we want is P(i=14 Ei) which we can calculate by using the inclusion-exclusion identity given in this

case by:

P(i=14 Ei) = P(Ei) i<j P(Ei Ej ) + i<j<k P(EiEjEk) i<j<k<l P(EiEjEkEl)

To do this we need to be able to evaluate the joint probabilities P(Ei), P(Ei Ej ), P(EiEjEk), and

P(EiEjEkEl) for i, j, k, and l for 1, 2, 3, 4. We start with P(Ei) where we fix the value of i and

P(Ei) = 50C11/52C13 = 0.0588235

P(EiEj) = 48C9/52C13 = 0.002641

P(EiEjEk) = 46C7/52C13 = 8.4289 105

P(EiEjEkEl) = 44C5/52C13 = 1.7102 106

Now by symmetry all of the probabilities in the individual sums are the same and that there are 4Cr

for r = 1, 2, 3 terms respectively in each of the sums in the above Equation. Thus we get

P(i=14 Ei) = 4C1 (0.0588235) 4C2 (0.002641) + 4C3 (8.4289 105) 4C4 (1.7102 106) =

0.0808910

25. Suppose that you are playing blackjack against a dealer. In a freshly shuffled deck, what is the

probability that neither you nor the dealer is dealt a blackjack?

Ans: We assume that blackjack means the player gets an ace and a king, queen, a jack or a ten on the

initial draw, and ignore the cases where the ace is used with a value of one and the player may

draw another card. In that case, the probability that either the player or the dealer gets blackjack

(independent of the other player) is just: 4C116C1/52C2 = 0.048265. Let A and B be the events that

player A or B gets blackjack. In the above we calculated P(A) and P(B).

We want to calculate P((A B)c) = 1 P(A B). This last event is

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).

Thus we need to calculate P(AB). This can be done as

P(AB) = P(B|A)P(A) = (3C115C1/50C2)P(A) = 0.001773.

We thus find that P((A B)c) = 1 (2(0.048265) 0.00177) = 0.9052

26. A woman has n keys, of which one will open her door. If she tries the keys at random, discarding

those that do not work, what is the probability that she will open the door on her kth try?

Ans: If unsuccessful keys are removed as we try them, then the probability that the kth attempt opens

the door can be computed by recognizing that all attempts up to (but not including) the kth have

resulted in failures. Let Pk be the probability of success at kth trial, then

1

P1 = , P2 = 1 1 11 , P3= 1 1 (1 11) 12

1

1

Pk = = 1 1 (1 11 )(1 1 2 ) (1)

=

27. Prove that P(E F G) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G) P(EcFG) P(EFcG) P(EFGc) 2P(EFG).

(Ec denotes E complement)

Ans: From the inclusion/exclusion principle we have

P(E F G) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G) P(E F) P(E G) P(F G) + P(E F G)

Now consider the following decompositions of sets into mutually exclusive components

E F = (E F Gc) (E F G)

E G = (E G Fc) (E G F)

F G = (F G Ec) (F G E)

Since each set above is mutually exclusive we have that

P(E F) = P(E F Gc) + P(E F G)

P(E G) = P(E G Fc) + P(E G F)

P(F G) = P(F G Ec) + P(F G E)

Adding these three sets we have that

P(E F) + P(E G) + P(F G) = P(E F Gc) + P(E F Fc) + P(F G Ec) + 3P(E F G)

which when put into the inclusion/exclusion identity above gives the desired result.

28. A secret government agency has developed a scanner which determines whether a person is a

terrorist. The scanner is fairly reliable; 95% of all scanned terrorists are identified as terrorists, and

95% of all upstanding citizens are identified as such. An informant tells the agency that exactly one

passenger of 100 aboard an aero plane in which you are seated is a terrorist. The agency decides to

scan each passenger and the shifty looking man sitting next to you is the first to test positive. What

are the chances that this man is a terrorist?

Ans: Let A be the event that person is terrorist and B be the event that scanning proves terrorist.

P(B|A)= 0.95

P(A)=1/100= 0.01

P(B) = P(B|A)P(A)+ P(B|AC)P(AC) = 0.95*0.01 + 0.05*0.99 = 0.059

29. Two balls are placed in a box as follows: A fair coin is tossed and a white ball is placed in the box if a

head occurs, otherwise a red ball is placed in the box. The coin is tossed again and a red ball is

placed in the box if a tail occurs, otherwise a white ball is placed in the box. Balls are drawn from

the box three times in succession (always with replacing the drawn ball back in the box). It is found

that on all three occasions a red ball is drawn. What is the probability that both balls in the box are

red?

Ans: P(RR)=P(WW)= P(RW)=P(WR) = 0.25

P(RRR)=P(RR)*P(RRR|RR)+P(RW)*P(RRR|RW)+P(WR)*P(RRR|WR)+P(WW)*P(RRR|WW)

=0.25*1 + 0.25*(0.128)3 +0.25*(0.128)3+0.25*0 = 5/16

P(RR/RRR)= P(RRR|RR)*P(RR)/P(RRR) = 0.25*1/(5/16) = 4/5

30. A total of 28 percent of American males smoke cigarettes, 7 percent smoke cigars, and 5 percent

smoke both cigars and cigarettes.

(a) What percentage of males smokes neither cigars nor cigarettes?

Ans: Let A= cigarette smoking event

B= cigar smoking event

P(A)=0.28

P(B)=0.07

P(AB)=0.05

P(ACBC) = 1 P(AB) = 1- (P(A)+P(B)-P(AB)) = 1-(0.28+0.07-0.05)= 0.7

Ans: P(ACB)= P(B) P(AB) = 0.07 0.05 = 0.02

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