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u$liy
func$ons
Carles
Sitompul
xi = level of attribute i
u(x1 , x2 ) = utility associated with level x1 of attribute 1 and level x2 of attribute 2
TION
Lets reconsider the problem of Wivco Toy Corporation. Wivco is introducing a new
product
(a globot) the
andproblem
must determine
what
price
to charge for
each is
globot.
Two factors
Lets reconsider
of Wivco
Toy
Corporation.
Wivco
introducing
a new
Considers
t
he
p
roblem
o
f
W
ivco
T
oy
C
orpora$on:
(market
andand
profits)
affect Wivcos
pricing
decision.
product
(a share
globot)
mustwill
determine
what price
to charge
forLet
each globot. Two factors
x1 = share
Wivco's
(market
andmarket
profits)xshare
will affect Wivcos pricing decision. Let
1 ! Wivcos market share
x2 = Wivco's profit (millions
of dollars)
x x !!Wivcos
market
share of dollars)
Wivcos
profits (millions
12
""
2
"1"
2
"1"
2
10%, $5
30%, $5
and
1
L#1 "" 16%, $5
1
L#1 "" 16%, $5
L1
and
If attribute 1 (market share) is ui 30%,
of attribute
$5 2 (profit), Wivco would also be indifferent
between
If attribute 1 (market share) is ui of attribute 2 (profit), Wivco would also be indifferent
between
"1"
2
10%, $20
1
1
""
L2
and
L#2 "" 16%, $20
21
10%, $20
""
2
30%, $20
1
#
L2
and
L
"
" 16%, $20
2
"1"
In short, if market share2 is ui of profit, then for any level of profits, a "12" chance at a 10%
market share.
If attributes 1 and 2 are mui, it can be shown that the decision makers utility function
u(x1, x2) must be of the following form:
TION
If attribute 1 is ui of attribute 2, and attribute 2 is ui of attribute 1, then attributes
u(x1, x2)utility
! k1uindependent
u1(x1)u2(x2)
(10)
1 and 2 are mutually
(mui).
1(x1) $ k2u2(x
2) $ k3
In (10), k1, k2, and k3 are constants, and u1(x1) and u2(x2) are functions of x1 and x2, reIf attributes
1 and
2isare
mui,called
it can abemultilinear
shown that utility
the decision
makers utility function
spectively.
Equation
(10)
often
function.
u(x
,
x
)
=
k
u
(x
)
+
k
u
(x
)
+
k
u
(x
)u
(x
)
1
2
1 1 1
2 2
2
1
2
2
u(xshow
must
of the following
form: 3 1exhibits
1, x2) that
To
a be
multilinear
utility function
mui, we assume that Wivcos utilMul$linear
$lity
ity function
is of the uform
and that Wivco is indifferent between L1 and L#1. If Wivco
u(x1(10)
, fxunc$on
(10)
2) ! k1u1(x1) $ k2u2(x2) $ k3u1(x1)u2(x2)
exhibits mui, then Wivco should also be indifferent between L2 and L#2. Using (10), we
'u1(x1) and u2(x2) are functions of x1 and x2, re(10),
k1a, bove
k2, and
are constants,
#13 implies
From
ekqua$on
can In
now
show
that
L1iL
La2nd
iL#2.
and
(10) and L1iL#1 imply
LFirst,
iL
1 i
spectively. Equation (10) is often called a multilinear utility function.
"1"[ka1u
u2(5) $
k3u1(10)u
1(10) $ k2utility
2(5)] mui, we assume that Wivcos utilTo show that
multilinear
function
exhibits
2
#
ity function is "1of
form$
(10)
indifferent
between
"[kthe
"1"[ and
u (10)
k1u1that
(30)Wivco
$ k2uis
$ k3u1(30)u
2(5)
2(5)]L1 and L1. If Wivco
2 1 1
2
exhibits mui, then Wivco
indifferent
between
L2 and L#2. Using (10), we
! k1should
u1(16) also
$ k2be
u2(5)
$ k3u1(16)u
2(5)
can now show that L1iL#1 implies L2iL#2. First, (10) and L1iL#1 imply
Simplifying this equation yields (if k1 ! 0)
"1"[k1u1(10) $ k2u2(5) $ k3u1(10)u2(5)]
1 3 . 6"1"[uDecision
Making
with Multiple
Objectives
777 (11)
2
(10)
#
u
(30)]
$
u
(16)
1
1
1
1
1
""[k1u1(10) $ ""[2 k1u1(30) $ k2u2(5) $ k3u1(30)u2(5)]
2
2
Using
(11),
we
find
Using
above,
we
nd
! k1u1(16) $ k2u2(5) $ k3u1(16)u2(5)
E(U for L2) $ "12"[k1u1(10) # k2u2(20) # k3u1(10)u2(20)]
1$3#
. 6"1"[kDecision
Making
777
u (30)
# with
k2uMultiple
# k3u1(30)u2(20)]
2(20) Objectives
2 1 1
$ k1u1(16) # k2u2(20) # k3u1(16)u2(20)
$ E(U for L%2)
Thus, we see that a multilinear utility function of the form (10) implies that attribute 1 is
NITION
Attributes 1 and 2 are mui if and only if the decision makers utility function
u(x1, x2) is a multilinear function of the form
u(x1, x2) $ k1u1(x1) # k2u2(x2) # k3u1(x1)u2(x2)
(10)
The determination of a decision makers utility function u(x1, x2) can be further simplified if it exhibits additive independence. Before defining additive independence, we
must define x1 (best) or x2 (best) to be the most favorable level of attribute 1 or 2 that can
occur; also, x1 (worst) or x2 (worst) is the least favorable level of attribute 1 or 2 that can
occur.
A decision makers utility function exhibits additive independence if the decision
maker is indifferent between
1
occur.A decision makers utility function exhibits additive independence if the decision
maker is indifferent between
NITION
TION
A decision makers
utility function exhibits additive independence
if the decision
"1"
"1"
2
2
x1(best), x2(best)
x1(best), x2(worst)
maker is indifferent between
"1" "1"
2 2
"1"
2
and
x1(best),
x2(best)
x1(worst),
x2(worst)
and
"1"
2
"1"
2
"1"
2
x1(best),
x2(worst)
x1(worst),
x2(best)
(11)
x1(worst), x2(worst)
x1(worst), x2(best)
Essentially, additive independence of attributes 1 and 2 implies that preferences
(11) over
lotteries
involving only attribute 1 (or only attribute 2) depend only on the marginal dis Depend
only
on
the
marginal
distribu$on
for
possible
values
of
a&ribute
1
(or
a&ribute
2)
tribution
for possible
values
of attribute
1 (or of attribute
2) and 1do
not depend on the
Essentially,
Do
not
depend
on
the
joint
distribu$on
f
the
possible
values
of
a&ribute
nd
2.
additive
independence
of oattributes
1 and
2 implies
that
apreferences
over
joint
distribution
of
the
possible
values
of
attributes
1
and
2.
lotteries involving only attribute 1 (or only attribute 2) depend only on the marginal disIf attributes
1 andvalues
2 are of
mui
and the1decision
makers 2)
utility
exhibits
tribution
for possible
attribute
(or of attribute
and function
do not depend
onadditive
the
independence,
itnd
isthe
to ui
show
k3 $
0 must
As in Section 2.2, simIf
adistribution
&ribute
1
aof
2easy
apossible
re
m
avalues
nd
that
u$lity
f(10),
unc$on
ddi$ve
joint
ofinattributes
1exhibits
and
2. ahold.
ply
scale u1(x11)and
and2
uare
2(xmui
2) such
independence:
If attributes
andthat
the decision makers utility function exhibits additive
independence, it is easy to show
that in$
(10),
01must
hold.
u1(x1(best))
1 k3 u$1(x
(worst))
$ As
0 in Section 2.2, simply scale u1(x1) and u2(x2) such that
u2(x2(best)) $ 1
u2(x2(worst)) $ 0
u1(x1(best)) $ 1
u1(x1(worst)) $ 0
Now (10) implies
u2(x2(best)) $ 1
u2(x2(worst)) $ 0
u(x1(best), x2(best)) $ k1 # k2 # k3
u(x1(worst), x2(worst)) $ 0
Now (10) implies
u(x1(best), x2(worst)) $ k1
u(x1(worst), x2(best)) $ k2
u(x1(best), x2(best)) $ k1 # k2 # k3
u(x1(worst), x2(worst)) $ 0
x2(worst))
k1
u(x1(worst), x2(best)) $ k2
C H A P T E Ru(x
11(best),
3 Decision
Making under$Uncertainty
Thus, if attributes 1 and 2 are mui and the decision makers utility function exhibits additive independence, his or her utility function is of the following additive form:
u(x1, x2) # k1u1(x1) " k2u2(x2)
(12)
1
!!(k1
2
Thus, if attributes 1 and 2 are mui and the decision makers utility function exhibits additive independence, his or her utility function is of the following additive form:
u(x1, x2) # k1u1(x1) " k2u2(x2)
(12)
If attributes 1 and 2 are mui, how can we determine u1(x1), u2(x2), k1, k2, and k3? To
determine
) and (x
u2(x),
1(x1),u
2), we apply the technique that was used to assess utility funcu1u(x
1
2
2 k1 , k2 , k 3
tions in Section 13.2. We illustrate by determining u1(x1). Let u1(x1(best)) # 1 and
u1(x1(worst)) # 0. Next determine a value of attribute 1 (call it x1(!12!)) having u1(x1(!12!)) #
1
1 1 of u (x (!1!)) and mui, the decision maker is (for any value of x )
!!. By the
u1 definition
x
=
1 1 2
2
2
1 2 2
indifferent between
!1!
2
!1!
2
x1(best), x2
and
x1(worst), x2
"#
1
1
L! !! x1 !! , x2
2
Thus, x1(!12!) may be determined from the fact that the certainty equivalent of L is (x1(!12!),
x2). In a similar fashion, we can determine values x1(!14!) and x1(!34!) of the first attribute sat 1 1
3 3
isfying u1(x1(!14!)) # !14! and u1(x1(!34!)) # !34!. Continuing inu1this
we
approximate
u1 may
x
=
=
x1 fashion,
4
4
1 4 4
u1(x1) and u2(x2).u (x ),u (x )
1 k1 , we2begin
2 by rescaling u (x ), u (x ), and u(x , x ) such that
To find k1, k2, and
3
1 1
2 2
1
2
u(x1(best), x2(best)) # 1,
u1(x1(best)) # 1,
u1(x1(worst)) # 0,
Now (10) yields
u(x1(worst), x2(worst)) # 0,
u2(x2(best)) # 1,
u2(x2(worst)) # 0
1
!!
2
1
!!
2
x1(best), x2
and
x1(worst), x2
"#
1
1
L! !! x1 !! , x2
2
Thus, x1(!12!) may be determined from the fact that the certainty equivalent of L is (x1(!12!),
x2). In a similar fashion, we can determine values x1(!14!) and x1(!34!) of the first attribute satisfying u1(x1(!14!)) # !14! and u1(x1(!34!)) # !34!. Continuing in this fashion, we may approximate
2
3
u1(x1) and u2(x2). 1
To find k1, k2, and k3, we begin by rescaling u1(x1), u2(x2), and u(x1, x2) such that
To nd k , k and k :
u(x1(best), x2(best)) # 1,
u1(x1(best)) # 1,
u1(x1(worst)) # 0,
u(x1(worst), x2(worst)) # 0,
u2(x2(best)) # 1,
u2(x2(worst)) # 0
and
1 $ k1
u(x1(best), x2(best))
u(x1(worst), x2(worst))
Similarly (see Problem 3 at the end of this section), u(x1(worst), x2(best)) # k2 and k2
can be determined from the fact that the decision maker is indifferent between
and
!1!
2
x1(worst), x2
"#
1
1
L! !! x1 !! , x2
2
Thus, x1(!12!) may be determined from the fact that the certainty equivalent of L is (x1(!12!),
x2). In a similar fashion, we can determine values x1(!14!) and x1(!34!) of the first attribute satisfying u1(x1(!14!)) # !14! and u1(x1(!34!)) # !34!. Continuing in this fashion, we may approximate
u1(x1) and u2(x2).
To find k1, k2, and k3, we begin by rescaling u1(x1), u2(x2), and u(x1, x2) such that
u(x1(best), x2(best)) # 1,
u(x1(worst), x2(worst)) # 0,
u(x
x (worst))=
k1 (1)#+0, k2 (0)
+ k3 (0)#=1,k1
1 (best),
u (x
(best)) # 21,
u (x (worst))
u (x (best))
1
u2(x2(worst)) # 0
and
1 $ k1
u(x1(best), x2(best))
u(x1(worst), x2(worst))
Similarly (see Problem 3 at the end of this section), u(x1(worst), x2(best)) # k2 and k2
can be determined from the fact that the decision maker is indifferent between
k2
1
!! u(x1(worst), x2(best))
and
1 $ k2
u(x1(best), x2(best))
u(x1(worst), x2(worst))
To find k1, k2, and k3, we begin by rescaling u1(x1), u2(x2), and u(x1, x2) such that
u(x1(best), x2(best)) # 1,
u1(x1(best)) # 1,
u1(x1(worst)) # 0,
u(x1(worst), x2(worst)) # 0,
u2(x2(best)) # 1,
u2(x2(worst)) # 0
(best), x2(best))
u(x1 (worst), x2 (best))= k1 (0) + k2 (1) + k3 (0) = ku(x
2 1
1
!! u(x1(best), x2(worst))
and
1 $ k1
u(x1(worst), x2(worst))
To determine
k2 (see Problem 3 at the end of this section), u(x1(worst), x2(best)) # k2 and k2
Similarly
can be determined from the fact that the decision maker is indifferent between
k2
1
!! u(x1(worst), x2(best))
and
1 $ k2
u(x1(best), x2(best))
u(x1(worst), x2(worst))
k2
1
!! u(x1(worst), x2(best))
and
1 $ k2
u(x1(best), x2(best))
u(x1(worst), x2(worst))
779
Procedures:
1. Check
whether
a&ributes
1
and
2
mui.
Otherwise
see
Keeney
and
Raia
(1976)
2. Check
for
addi$ve
independence.
3. Assess
u1 (x1 ) and u2 (x2 )
4. Determine
k
1
,
k
2
and
(if
there
is
no
addi$ve
independence)
k3
5. Check
to
see
whether
the
assessed
u$lity
func$on
is
really
consistent
with
the
decision
makers
preferences.
We begin by checking for mui. It is helpful to draw a diagram (see Figure 14) th
plays various levels of each attribute. First, we check whether attribute 1 (market
is ui of attribute 2 (profit). We ask Fruit for the certainty equivalent of a $12$ chance
Profit
(millions of $)
30
25
20
15
FIGURE
14
780
10
5
0
CHAPTER
10
20
30
40
50
"1" chance
are
(10%)
andand
a "12a" chance
atatthe
(50%),with
withx2x2fixed
fixed
t share
(10%)
thebest
bestmarket
market share
share (50%),
"1" at at
2
2
say
x2 $15
! $15
million).
Supposethe
thecertainty
certainty equivalent
equivalent of
x2 !
million).
Suppose
of
1 1
"" "2"
2
10%, $15
$15
10%,
"1"
2
1
1 ""
"" 2
10%, $20
50%, $20
2
50%,
$15
If attribute
150%,
is ui$15
of attribute 2, the certainty equivalent of this lottery should be c
5). To determine whether
attribute
is uiother
of attribute
2, we
(30%,
$20).1For
values
of fix
x2 attribute
(say, x22!at $5, $10, $25, and $30), we check if t
o
determine
whether
attribute
1
is
ui
of
attribute
2,
we
fix
attribute
2 at
evel (say, x2 !Suppose
$20 tainty
million)
and
find
Fruits
certainty
equivalent
for
the
folequivalent
the lottery
the
certainty
eof
quivalent
o
f
the
above
is
(30%,$15).
(say, x2 ! $20 million)
and
find Fruits
certainty
equivalent
for the
fol-
y:
1
""
1 2
""
2
"1"
2
"1"
2
10%, $20
"1"
2
10%, $20
50%, $20
"1"
2
50%, $20
is ui of attribute 2, the certainty equivalent
of this lottery should be close to
10%, x2
50%, x2
close
toequivalent
(30%,
xof
Suppose
this
the
case.
Forofother
values2,ofthe
xis
(say,
x2 !
$5,
$10, $25,
$30),
weshould
checkisifbe
the
cer2).and
2 certainty
ui
attribute
this
lottery
close
to Then we repeat this procedure wit
lent of the lottery values of market share replacing 10% and 50%. If similar results ensue, then attr
other
values Suppose
of x2 (say,that
x2 !the
$5, c$10,
$25, and
$30), weis
check
if the
cer-to
(30%,
x ).
ertainty
equivalent
always
close
2
is ui of"1" attribute 2. In analogous fashion, we can determine whether attribute 2 is u
of the lottery
2
bute
In analogous
we can
determine
whether
2 iswith
ui ofother
at, x2).2. Suppose
thisfashion,
is the case.
Then
we repeat
this attribute
procedure
attribute 1 is ui of attribute 2, and attribute 2 is1 ui of attribute 1, the two at-
ui of attribute 2. In analogous fashion, we can determine whether attribute 2 is ui of atbute 1. If attribute 1 is ui of attribute 2, and attribute 2 is ui of attribute 1, the two atbutes are mui. Lets assume that attributes 1 and 2 are (at least approximately) mui and
oceed to step 2 (checking for additive independence).
a&ribute
we
1
amust
nd
2determine
are
mui,
proceed
heck
To check Assume
for additivethat
independence,
whether
Fruitto
is cindifferent
tween
for
addi$ve
independence
"1"
2
"1"
2
"1"
2
50%, $30
and
50%, $5
"1"
2
10%, $5
10%, $30
ppose that Fruit is not indifferent between these lotteries. Then Fruits utility function
ll not exhibit additive independence. We now know that u(x1, x2) may be written as
We now proceed
u1(x1) and u2(x2)). Suppose we obtain the results
u(x1 , x2to
) =step
k1u13(x(assessing
1 ) + k2 u 2 (x2 ) + k 3u1 (x1 )u 2 (x2 )
own in Figure 15. To complete the assessment of Fruits multiattribute utility function,
must determine k1, k2, and k3 (step 4). To find k1, we ask Fruit to determine the numr k1 that makes Fruit indifferent between
k1
50%, $30
We now proceed to step 3 (assessing u1(x1) and u2(x2)). Suppose we obtain the result
wn in Figure 15. To complete the assessment of Fruits multiattribute utility function
To
determine
must determine
k1, k2, andkk1
3
(step 4). To find k1, we ask Fruit to determine the num
k1 that makes Fruit indifferent between
k1
1
"" 50%, $5
and
1 $ k1
50%, $30
10%, $5
781
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
x2(millions of $)
(b) Profit
To determine k2
Suppose that for k1 ! 0.6, Fruit is indifferent between these two lotteries. Similarly, k2 is
the number that makes Fruit indifferent between
k2
1
"" 10%, $30
and
1 # k2
50%, $30
10%, $5
Suppose that for k2 ! 0.5, Fruit is indifferent between these two lotteries. Now k3 ! 1 #
k1 # k2 !
#0.1, and
multiattribute
function
is
Suppose
that
Fruits
for
k =
0.5,
Fruit
is
utility
indierent
between
these
2
where u1(x1) and u2(x2) are sketched in Figure 15. Note that
u(x1, x2)
"" ! 0.6u%(x ) # 0.1u%(x )u (x )
(13
k3 = 1 k1 k2 = 0.1
Hence,
Fruits
mul$a&ribute
u$lity
func$on
is
u1(x1)
1.00
.75
.50
.25
0
10
20
30
40
50
x1(%)
u2(x2)
1.00
.75
.50
.25
FIGURE
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
x2(millions of $)
(b) Profit
Suppose that for k1 ! 0.6, Fruit is indifferent between these two lotteries. Similarly, k2 is
Thus, during the current year, Fruit should mount a large ad cam
TA B L E
12
Small ad campaign
Large ad campaign
EMS
Small Ad Campaign
Large Ad Campaign
25%, $16
35%, $8
15%, $12
25%, $10
To illustrate how a multiattribute utility function might be used, suppose that Fruit mu
determine whether to mount a small or a large advertising campaign during the comi
year. Fruit believes there is a !12! probability that its main rival, CSL Computers, will mou
a small TV ad campaign and a !12! probability that CSL will mount a large TV ad campaig
From
F
igure
1
5:
At the end of the current year, Fruits market share and profits (in millions of dollars) w
be
as shown
in Table
12. Fruit must determine which of the following lotteries has a larg
u1 (15)
= 0.125,u
1 (25) = 0.375,u1 (35) = 0.625
expected utility: From Figure 15, we find that u1(15) " 0.125, u1(25) " 0.375, u1(35)
u2 (8) = 0.45,u2 (10) = 0.53,u2 (12) = 0.58,u2 (16) = 0.70.
0.625,
u2(8) " 0.45, u2(10) " 0.53, u2(12) " 0.58, and u2(16) " 0.70. Then
u(25%, $16)
u(15%, $12)
u(35%, $8)
u(25%, $10)
"
"
"
"
0.6(.375)
0.6(.125)
0.6(.625)
0.6(.375)
#
#
#
#
Then
E(U for small ad campaign) " (!12!)(.549) # (!12!)(.358) " .454
E(U for large ad campaign) " (!12!)(.572) # (!12!)(.470) " .521
Thus, during the current year, Fruit should mount a large ad campaign.