10: System of collection of agricultural Statistics

SYSTEM OF COLLECTION OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS IN

INDIA INCLUDING LAND USE AND AREA STATISTICS
Rajiv Lochan
Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi
1

INTRODUCTION

India predominantly is an agrarian economy both from the point of view of employment as
well as contribution to the national income. Availability of reliable and timely crop estimates
is hence of paramount importance to the planners, administrators, policy makers and research
scholars. The Government depends on these data in taking a number of policy decisions
regarding pricing, processing, procurement, storage, transport, marketing, export/import,
public distribution and many other issues like investment planning. The system of generating
annual estimates of area, yield and production of crops in India is more than a century old. A
constant evaluation of the mechanism for generation of timely and reliable agricultural
production statistics, therefore, assumes vital importance and significance. The Directorate of
Economics and Statistics (DES) releases estimates of area, production and yield in respect of
51 principal crops of food grains, oilseeds, sugarcane, fibers and important commercial and
horticulture crops. These crops together accounts for nearly 87% of agriculture output.
The organization of this lecture note is as follows. Section 1 presents the system of release of
Advance and Final Estimates of area, production and yield by the DES on the basis of reports
received from State Agricultural Statistics Authorities (SASAs) Section 2 gives a bird eyeview of area statistics. Section 3 deals with various aspects of yield estimates namely extent
of coverage, sampling design and degree of precision of estimates. Under Section 4, some of
important limitations of CES (Crop Estimation Surveys) are discussed. Section 5 gives an
account of the schemes launched to fine tune crop statistics. Finally, section 6 presents the
conclusion.
1.1

Release of Estimates of Area and Production

The period of an agricultural crop year is from July to June, during which various farm
operations from preparation of seed bed, nursery, sowing, transplanting various inter-culture
operations, harvesting, threshing etc. are carried out. Different crops are grown during the
agricultural seasons in the crop year. Final estimates of production based on complete
enumeration of area and yield through crop cutting experiments become available much after
the crops are actually harvested. However, the Government requires advance estimates of
production for taking various policy decisions relating to pricing, marketing, export/import,
distribution, etc. Considering the genuine requirement of crop estimates much before the
crops are harvested for various policy purposes, a time schedule of releasing the advance
estimates has been evolved. These estimates of crops are prepared and released at four points
of time during a year as enumerated below:
1.2

First Advance Estimates

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The first official estimate of area and production of kharif crops is prepared in September
every year, when south-west monsoon season is about to be over and kharif crops are at an
advanced stage of maturity. This coincides with the holding of the National Conference of
Agriculture for Rabi Campaign, where the State Governments give rough assessment of their
respective kharif crops. The assessment is made by the State Governments based on the
reports from the field offices of the State Department of Agriculture. They are mainly guided
by visual observations. These are validated on the basis of inputs from the proceedings of
Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meetings, and other feedback such as relevant
availability of water in major reservoirs, availability/supply of important inputs including
credit to farmers, rainfall, temperature, irrigation etc.
1.3

Second Advance Estimates

The second advance estimate is made in the month of January every year when the advance
estimates of kharif crops prepared during the National Conference of Agriculture for Rabi
Campaign may undergo a revision in the light of flow of more precise information from the
State Governments. Around this time, the first advance estimates of rabi crops are also
prepared. The Second Advance Estimates then cover the second assessment in respect of
Kharif Crops and the first assessment in respect of Rabi Crops.
1.4

Third Advance Estimates

The third advance estimates are prepared towards the end of March/ beginning of April every
year, when the National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif campaign is convened and the
State Governments come up with their assessments for both kharif and rabi crops. The earlier
advance estimates of both kharif and rabi seasons are firmed up/ validated with the
information available with State Agricultural Statistics Authorities (SASAs), remote sensing
data, available with Space Application Centre, Ahmedabad as well as the proceedings of
CWWG.
1.5

Fourth Advance Estimates

The fourth advance estimates are prepared in the month of June/July every year, when the
National Workshop on Improvement of Agricultural Statistics is held. Since most of the rabi
crops get harvested by the end of May, SASAs are in a position to supply the estimates of
both kharif and rabi seasons as well as likely assessment of summer crops during the National
Workshop. Like the third advance estimates, the fourth advance estimates are duly validated
with the information available from other sources.
1.6

Final Estimates

Under the existing system of crop estimation, the fourth advance estimate is followed by final
estimates in December / January of the following agricultural year. The main factors
contributing to the relatively large number of crop estimates are the large variations in crop
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seasons across the country and the resulting delay in the compilation of yield estimates based
on crop cutting experiments. As agriculture is a State subject, Central Government depends
upon State Governments for accuracy of these estimates. For this purpose, State Governments
have setup High Level Coordination Committees (HLCC) comprising, inter-alia, senior
officers from their departments of Agriculture, Economics & Statistics, Land Records and
NSSO (FOD), IASRI, DES from Central Government for sorting out problems in preparation
of these estimates in a timely and orderly manner.
2.

AREA STATISTICS

From the point of view of collection of area statistics, the States in the country are divided
into three broad categories:(i)

States and U.Ts which has been cadastrally surveyed and where area and land use
statistics are built up as part of the land records maintained by the revenue agencies
(referred to as Land Record States or temporarily settled states). The system of
land record is being followed in 13 major states and 4 UTs of Chandigarh, Delhi,
Dadar & Nagar Haveli and Pondicherry. These states/UTs account for about 86% of
reporting area.

(ii)

The states where area statistics are collected on the basis of sample surveys (normally
known as non-land record states or Permanently Settled States which are three in
number viz. Kerala, Orissa and West Bengal). A scheme for Establishment of
Agency for Reporting of Agricultural Statistics (EARAS) has been introduced in
these three states which envisages, inter-alia, either the estimation of areas by
complete enumeration or through sample surveys in a sufficiently large sample of
20% villages/ investigators zones. These states accounts for about 9% of reporting
area.

(iii)

In hilly districts of Assam, the rest of the states in North-Eastern Region, Sikkim,
Goa, UTs of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Daman & Diu and Lakshadweep where no
reporting agency had been functioning, the work of collection of Agricultural
Statistics is entrusted with the village headmen (5%).

While the area statistics are collected on complete enumeration basis in respect of states in
category (i) above, on ad-hoc methods based on impressionistic approach in case of states in
category (iii) above, a scheme for Establishment of Agency for Reporting of Agricultural
Statistics (EARAS) has been introduced in the three states in category (ii) above. For further
details of EARAS section 6.3 may be referred to.
3. YIELD ESTIMATES
The second most important component of production statistics is yield rates. The yield
estimates of major crops are obtained through analysis of scientifically designed crop cutting
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experiments (CCE) conducted under scientifically designed general Crop Estimation Surveys
(CES). During 2004-05, 8.16 lakhs such experiments covering 68 crops including 16 nonfood crops were conducted. At present over 95% of the production of food grains is estimated
on the basis of yield rates obtained from the CCE spread over 19 states and 4 UTs.
The primary objective of CES is to obtain fairly reliable estimates of average yield of
principal food and non-food crops for each of state and UTs which are important from the
point of view of crop production. The estimates of yield rates thus arrived at are generally
adopted for the purposes of planning, policy formulation and implementation. The CCE
consist of identification and marking of experimental plots of a specified size and shape in a
selected field on the principle of random sampling, threshing the produce and recording of
the harvested produce for determining the percentage recovery of dry grains or the
marketable form of the produce.
3.1

Coverage

A total of 68 crops comprising 52 food crops and 16 non-food crops were covered under CES
during 2004-05 as per details given in table 1.
Table 1: Crops Covered under CES
Type of Crop

A. Food grains Crops

Cereals

No. of crops No.of

Covered under Experiments
CES

Percentage

487493

71.0

Pulses & Beans

Small Millets
Condiments and Spices
Fruits and Vegtables
Sugar (Sugarcane and Cocoa)
Sub-Total (A) :
B. Non-Food grains Crops
Oilseeds

11
7
10
16
2
52

129898
3336
9798
33876
21985
686386

18.9
0.5
1.4
4.9
3.2
84.1

11

103787

79.9

Fibres
Drugs and Narcotics
Sub-Total (B) :
Grand Total (A) + (B)

3
2
16
68

24560
1582
129929
816315

18.9
1.2
15.9
100.0

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3.2

Sampling Design

Stratified multi-stage random sampling design is generally adopted for carrying out CES with
tehsils/taluks/revenue inspector circles/CD blocks anchals etc. as strata, revenue villages
within a stratum as first stage units of sampling, survey numbers/ fileds within each selected
villages as sampling units at the second stage and experimental plot of a specified shape and
size as the ultimate unit of sampling. In each selected primary unit generally 2 survey
numbers/fields growing the experimental crop are selected for conducting CCE.
In a bid to improve efficiency of estimates, pre-stratification of design taking into account the
impact of irrigation and type of seeds was adopted during 2004-05 in some states namely
A.P., Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Karnataka, M.P., Maharashtra, Rajasthan and
Tamil Nadu. The details of such stratification are given in the table 2.
Table 2: Stratification According to Inputs
State
1
Andhra Pradesh
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Karnataka

Jharkhand
Karnataka

Madhya
Pradesh
Maharashtra

Crop for which pre-stratification is done according to

Irrigation & seed both
Irrigation only
Seed only
2
3
4
Paddy (kharif & rabi)
Paddy (Agh.) & Wheat Paddy (Bha.) &
Paddy (Gar.) & Maize
Sugarcane
(Bha. & Gar.)
Paddy* & Wheat*
Paddy (Kh.), Wheat & Cotton
Rice (kharif), jowar
Groundnut (kh.)@,
Rice (rabi & summer),
(kh. & rabi), bajra
cotton (kh.), Gram,
Maize (rabi &
(kh.), maize (kh.), ragi Sunflower (kh. and
summer),
(kh. & rabi**) and
rabi)
Jowar (summer),
wheat
Ragi (summer)
Paddy (agh.) & Wheat
Paddy(kh.,Rabi.* *
Groundnut@
Sum.**), Jowar
(kh.&Sum.), Cotton
(Kh.,Rabi.&Sum**),
(Kh.), Gram &
Bajra (kh.), Maize
Sunflower (Kh. Rabi
(Kh.Rabi & Sum**),
and Sum.)
Ragi (Kh.,Rabi &
Sum.**) & Wheat
Paddy * & Wheat*
-

Rajasthan

Tamil Nadu

Paddy (kh.) , jowar

(rabi), bajra, wheat
and cotton
Rapeseed & mustard
& gram & Wheat
Jowar, bajra, ragi,
groundnut, seasmum
& cotton
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*
@
**

Pre-stratification according to seed is only for irrigated.

Pre-stratification only in the relevant districts and not for state as a whole.
Pre-stratification according to irrigation, is only for HYV.

Theoretically, it is desirable to evolve a general design for stratification according to inputs as

it may provide valuable results. However, there are practical difficulties in attempting
stratification according to inputs mainly due to the following two reasons:

Lack of availability of required data in the presently available system of area statistics at
different level; and

Stratification according to inputs may require conduct of larger number of experiments

(CCE) to draw statistically acceptable estimates of desired parameters. Given the
resources, it does not appear feasible to increase number of CCE at present.

3.3

Degree of Precision

The magnitude of standard error reflects the precision of the estimates and the degree of
precision reduced with increase in the standard error. It is generally agreed that desirable
level of standard error (SE) for crop yields is 0% to 5% . However, the experience shows that
in good number of cases, S.Es are above the desirable limits in some of states like Andhra
Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,
Orissa, Rajasthan and West Bengal which put a question mark on the reliability of the
estimates. Concerted efforts are required on the part of State Governments by increasing
sample size and supervision to ensure that the SEs do not exceed 5%.
4. LIMITATIONS OF CES
CES have been quite useful in providing desired estimates. However, it has the following
important limitations:

Non response

Errors in CCE

Substitution of experiments

Delegation to Junior Officials

Non availability of suitable equipments

Non response

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The reliability of estimates depends to a great extent on the response level in conducting
CCE. In 2004-05, the overall response recorded was 94 percent as in the previous year.
Percentage response for food crops during Kharif and Rabi 2004-05 was 95% & 94%
respectively and for non-food crops, it was 96% & 92% respectively. Response was below 90
percent in Himachal Pradesh (86%) and Delhi (79%). Special measures are needed to
improve the response to more than 90 percent in these States to increase the acceptability and
reliability of estimates based on CCE.
4.1

Errors in CCE

An analysis of the results of CCE through the sample check under ICS few years before
revealed that about 90% of experiments could be conducted without error at All India level.
However the position is quite different once State-wise analysis is made. Table 3 indicates
the position of different types of errors observed during the conduct of CCE in kharif season.
Table 3: Incidence of Errors in Crop Cutting Experiments
Sl.no.

1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

States

2
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal
Pradesh
Jammu
&Kashmir
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
U.P.
West Bengal
Delhi
Pondicherry

% of expts.
Where no
error was
noticed
3
85
94
92
92
90
68

% of expts. Where error was noticed

E1

E2

E3

E4

E5

E6

E7

E8

4
0
0
0
0
2
3

5
0
0
0
0
1
1

6
1
0
0
0
1
0

7
0
0
0
0
5
4

8
1
0
0
0
0
2

9
7
0
4
9
17
14

10
4
0
0
0
2
3

11
5
6
4
0
3
10

75

15

79
99
90
44
96
92
76
75
53
100
55
100

1
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0

2
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

0
0
0
2
0
1
2
3
1
0
0
0

11
0
0
36
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0

1
0
1
4
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0

1
1
2
37
1
4
29
28
15
0
20
0

5
0
4
15
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0

8
1
2
15
3
5
1
2
16
0
35
0

Note: E1: Error in selection of Survey /Sub survey nos., E2: Error in selection of field
within Survey /Sub-survey No., E3: Error in the measurement of the field, E4: Error in
selection of random nos., location and marking of plots, E5: Error in weighment of
produce, E6: Error in recording ancillary information, E7: Inadequate arrangements for

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storing of produce for driage and incorrect reporting of constituents in mixture, E8:
Others
Mistakes that occur in the process of selection of survey numbers, selection of fields,
measurement of plots and selection of random numbers for location of plots have a direct
impact on the objectivity envisaged and results in upsetting the representative character of the
experiments. Instances of errors in reporting ancillary information provides adequate
evidence about the casual approach adopted by the primary worker even in eliciting the
relevant data. It is imperative to take strong administrative measures and impart intensive
training to field staff to ensure that prescribed procedure for conducting CCE is adhered to.
4.3

Substitution of Experiments

Instructions for conduct of CES prohibit substitution of sampling units once selected. But
instances of substitution of sampling units at village and field level are observed. During
1996-97, incidences relating to substitution was around 5% in Bihar, Karnataka and Madhya
Pradesh. In majority of the cases, the fields were substituted either because the crop was
harvested prior to selection of the field or crop harvested before the date fixed. Substitution of
duly selected sampling units by any other convenient unit may result in distorted results.
Better liaison between the primary workers and the cultivators would go a long way to
control such high incidence of substitution.
4.4 Delegation to Junior Officials
The field work of crop estimation surveys is entrusted with the officials who are normally
one rank higher than the primary worker for area enumeration. Delegation of crop cutting
work particularity to the junior rank has been observed in several states. For example, the
delegation of work was of the order of 10% in case of U.P. during summer 1996-97.
Adequate arrangements are needed for ensuring proper training to the field workers entrusted
with CES to avoid improper conduct of crop cutting experiments.
4.5

Non availability of suitable equipments

While an untrained worker cannot conduct the experiment properly, supply of essential
equipments and its proper use is required for accuracy in measurements. The position is far
from satisfactory particularly in the case of Bihar, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, J&K,
Karnataka, Maharastra, Punjab, Rajasthan and UP. Even the supplied equipments were
reported to have not been carried to the field for the conduct of CCE in many cases in
Karnataka, M.P., Maharastra, Rajasthan and U.P. This calls for strong administrative
measures for effecting further improvement. Table 4 gives the percentage of experiments
conducted without use/ improper use of crop cutting equipments during 5 years preceding
1997-98 as observed through ICS.
Table 4: Supply and Use of Equipments for CCE During the Last Five Years
Year

Percentage of experiments for which

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1
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94

Concerned primary workers not

supplied with
Tape
Pegs
Balance
Weight
2
3
4
5
15
16
36
39
18
61
37
40
17
60
37
39
16
60
34
39
16
60
37
38

Concerned primary workers did not

use the supplied items
Tape
Pegs
Balance
Weight
6
7
8
9
20
18
26
24
18
17
25
24
18
16
24
23
18
17
23
22
18
18
24
23

5. SCHEMES FOR FINE TUNNING OF CROP STATISTICS

Availability of reliable and timely estimates of area and production assumes prime
importance as these estimates are used by the government for taking a number of policy
decisions regarding production, pricing, processing, procurement, storage, transport, exportimport, public distribution etc. In its quest for improving quality, reliability and timeliness of
agricultural statistics, DES has initiated the following important schemes:

TRS

ICS

EARAS

FASAL

5.1 Timely Reporting Scheme (TRS)

The agricultural statistics has come under severe criticism within and outside the Government
for considerable time-lag in the availability of desired statistics. To positively respond to this,
DES (Directorate of Economics & Statistics) initiated TRS in 1969-70 in the land record
States to reduce time lag between the period of sowing and the availability of estimates of
area sown on one hand and between completion of harvesting and availability of estimates of
production in respect of important crops on the other hand. The primary objective of this
scheme is to obtain reliable estimates of area and production of principal crops in each season
with break up of area under irrigated/ unirrigated and traditional/high yielding varieties of
crops on the basis of priorities enumeration conducted in 20% of villages. These estimates
are required to be furnished to the Govt. of India by 30th November for kharif crops and by
30th April for rabi crops. Under the scheme, Girdwari is conducted by revenue agency of the
state on priority basis in a sample of 20% villages every year. The enumeration of

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area done by Patwaris is supervised by trained staff of NSSO in random sample of 20%
villages in each season in a state. Thus, five randomly selected non overlapping samples
surveyed each year cover all the villages in five years. The TRS results have been found
extremely useful both by states and DES.
In addition to timely and reliable area estimates, TRS also serves as a sampling frame for
CES and related aspects. Thus, the TRS scheme has an important role in serving the
following dimensions of Agricultural Statistics System:
Sample based reliability of crop area statistics taking into consideration the heavy work
load of State primary workers.
Timeliness in the aggregation and flow of the area estimates envisaging the area
enumeration on priority for the sampled villages.
Frame for the General Crop Enumeration Surveys facilitating the methodological
commitments of scientifically designed crop yield estimation exercise.
Frame for the Agricultural Census Surveys.
Frame for Input Surveys.
5.2 The Scheme for the Improvement of Crop Statistics (ICS)
The scheme for Improvement of Crop Statistics was initiated in 1973-74 with the main
objective of locating through joint efforts of Central and State agencies from year to year, the
deficiencies in the State system of crop statistics and suggesting remedial measures to effect
lasting improvement in the system. The programme of ICS is in operation in 16 land record
States/UTs. and the 3 non-land record States of Kerala, Orissa and West Bengal. The scheme
provides for exercising checks at every stage of work relating to estimation of crop
production on an equal matching basis by the Central as well as State supervisory staff on
three basic aspects namely area enumeration, area aggregation and conduct of CCE. The
programme envisages the following:

Studying the State system of crop estimation in its normal operative conditions.

Identifying the deficiencies and weaknesses in the system.

Physical verification of crop enumeration done by the Patwaris in a sample of 10,000

villages ,

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Checking the accuracy of the area statistics transmitted from the village level through
crop abstract in the very same 10,000 villages.

Providing technical guidance and supervision at the harvest stage in the conduct of about
30,000 CCE distributed across principal crops in various states.

The above checks specifically relate to crop area enumeration, page totaling of khasra register
and supervision of harvest stage of CCE. The sample checks are undertaken by the
supervisory staff of the National Sample Survey Organization and the staff of the State
agencies on a matching basis over a non-overlapping sample. The samples for this purpose
are drawn following the stratified multistage random sampling design.
The analytical findings of the ICS scheme bring to focus the precise lines along which the
improvement in the system of crop statistics system could be effected in context of the
conditions prevailing in each State. The survey operations for generating crop area and yield
estimates are expanded vastly over the space and involve multiple agencies at various levels.
Though these surveys provide the estimates of comparable nature, the management of the
survey and control of survey operations differ significantly from sate to state. The surveys of
such magnitude face a potential threat to the quality of their output from numerous sources of
non-sampling errors. The scheme of ICS serves the purpose of an objective assessment of
non-sampling errors in these surveys and identifies their sources as well as the possible
impact on the quality of data.
5.3 Establishment of an Agency for Reporting Agricultural Statistics
In three permanently settled states namely Kerala, Orissa and West Bengal, there is no land
record system and there is no regular agency for collection of agricultural statistics. In order
to bridge data gap, a scheme namely Establishment of an Agency for Reporting Agricultural
Statistics (EARAS) is being implemented in States which do not have permanent land record
system. In the north-eastern States (except Assam) where no reporting agency functions, the
land use statistics are generated through ad-hoc methods. EARAS scheme has been extended
to NE States of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Tripura besides Sikkim during 1994-95
but data generation is yet to commence. In these states, the land use statistics are still
generated through ad-hoc methods. However, the scheme of EARAS has been of immense
significance in generating crop estimates for the permanently settled states.
Under the scheme, estimates of area and yield are built on the basis of complete enumeration
of 20% sample of villages every year. The enumeration is supervised by trained staff of
NSSO. This scheme also has some weaknesses as primary workers either do not complete
work in time or do not discharge duties with required sincerity which results in under
estimation of area and production of various crops.
5.4 Crop Estimation Surveys for Fruits and Vegetables

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In order to fill up a vital gap in availability of area, production and yield statistics of
important fruits and vegetables crops, a central sector scheme of crop estimation surveys on
fruits, vegetables and minor crops was initiated during the Sixth Five Year Plan. The
objective of this scheme is to generate estimation of area and production of major fruits and
vegetable crops so that all India forecast on these crops can be released under the scheme.
The scheme is being implemented in 10 states of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Himachal
Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar
Pradesh and is likely to be extended to other states. The state of Jammu & Kashmir,
however, has not yet started implementing the scheme. Regular crop estimation surveys on a
number of fruits, vegetables/ minor crops are being conducted in the remaining 9 states.
5.5 Forecasting Agricultural Output Using Space, Agro meteorology and Land Based
Observations (FASAL)
Timely availability of reliable information of agricultural output and other related aspects is
of great significance for planning and policymaking. The existing system of agricultural
statistics, in spite of established procedures and wide coverage, has inherent limitations in the
matter of providing an objective assessment of crops at the pre-harvesting stages with the
desired spatial details, which are essential to identify problem areas and the nature of required
interventions in terms of spatial, temporal and qualitative inferences. Capabilities of the
existing system of crop forecasts and crop estimation can be enhanced with the introduction
of technological advancements and the adoption of emerging methodologies. In turn, an
efficient and sound information mechanism can assist considerably in the management of
concerns in areas such as food security, price stability, international trade, etc. Remote
Sensing (RS), Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Geographic
Information System (GIS) can be used towards this end.
In the year 1987, the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC) sponsored a project
called "Crop Acreage and Production Estimates (CAPE)". The project is being implemented
through the Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad. The objective of CAPE is to use
remote sensing (RS) techniques for crop area and production forecasting. Under the CAPE
project, basic procedures, models, and software packages for crop area and production
forecasting, using remote sensing and weather data have been developed. The work is being
carried out jointly by Space Applications Centre (SAC), State Remote Sensing agencies
(SRSA), State Departments of Agriculture, and State Agricultural Universities/Institutions.
As a result, considerable human resource development has taken place and initial expertise
generated. The methodology and tools developed under CAPE have been discussed in
different fora and found to have attained a reasonable degree of standardization for
integration into the main system.
CAPE project has successfully demonstrated national level forecast of wheat and kharif rice,
in addition to making district level pre-harvest production forecasting of cotton, sugarcane,
rapeseed/mustard and rabi sorghum in their major growing regions in the country using RS
technology and other auxiliary information. It has successfully overcome the problem of
persistent cloud cover during kharif season by using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data
from Radarsat. Moving a step further, the FASAL project aims at multiple in-season
forecasting of crop area and production. Crop forecasting at the planting stage can be made
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by employing econometric and agro-met models using previous years crop acreage and
production, market price, current season weather forecast/data, and other auxiliary
information. At this stage, farmers response may be unpredictable. Remote Sensing (RS)
technique becomes effective for crop assessment once it attains sufficient ground coverage,
say around 45 days after sowing. RS data provides information regarding area covered by
crop, its condition and the likely yield. This coupled with agro-meteorological observations
and limited field observations can provide fairly accurate information on likely yield of the
crop.
Remote Sensing, weather and field observations provide complementary and supplementary
information for making crop forecasts. Thus an approach, which integrates inputs from the
three types of observations, is needed to make forecasts of desired coverage, accuracy, and
timeliness. As such, this project has been named as Forecasting Agricultural output using
Space, Agro-Meteorology and Land based observations or FASAL.
The FASAL project has been formulated with the following considerations:
-

Experience of CAPE in implementation of RS (Remote Sensing)-based crop production

forecasting experiment,

The requirements of the MOA/DAC in terms of timeliness, accuracy and coverage of

crops,

Experience and recent studies outside India for RS-based crop assessment/ forecasting,

Improvements available in terms of RS technology as well as in related disciplines, and

Use of other information such as weather based and field surveys for crop forecasting.

The concept of FASAL thus seeks to strengthen the current capabilities of early and in-season
crop estimation capabilities from econometric and weather based techniques with RS
applications. Mid-season assessments can be supplemented with multi-temporal coarse
resolution data based analysis. In the latter half of crop growth period, direct contribution of
RS in the form of acreage estimates and yield forecasts would be available. However, in this
case also, the addition of more extensive field information and weather inputs would increase
the forecast accuracy.
6. CONCLUSION
Given the diversities prevailing in the domain and dimension of agrarian economy of India,
timely collection of agricultural statistics has been of immense use in estimating agriculture
production in the country. Some of limitations of crop estimation surveys lead to lack of
precision which in turn results in distortion of estimates. The Ministry of Agriculture, in any
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10: System of collection of agricultural Statistics

case, has made efforts to fine tune the agricultural statistical system in the country by
initiating schemes mentioned above. Though these schemes have made some dent on
improvement of the system of crop estimation and forecast, shortcomings in terms of delays
in flow of information from field, errors in area reporting continue to persist. Considering the
fact that agriculture sector is vast and diverse, it poses challenge to agricultural statisticians
and scientists to make available accurate and before occurrence of harvest the estimates of
crop production. The need is to constantly review the system of agricultural statistics and
crop estimation so that the right kind of information is made available at right place at right
time in a cost effective manner.

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