CNI Publications; Weekly Plattern

Weekly summary

Vol -1, No-I, 18 Sep, 2015, 09 pages

Editorial
One more...

Change of the week

Major move announced by the govt, a change from

the past,in the oil and gas sector. 42 fields will be
auctioned in all,27 in Bombay High and 15 in KG
Basin. Here only royalty will need to be paid and no
profit sharing contract will need to be entered. I think
the PM is finding his bearings and setting out to do
what was to be done in the first place. Am sure he will
not rest with such one off,as we have been saying a
strong of such announcements are in the offing.
Silly as it may sound everyone is waiting for the Fed.
Am actually Fed up. What is the big deal about. If he
has to increase now or three months later. If she does
it now the uncertainty will be over. The markets will
begin afresh.
China is still a house divided. In the sense there are
as many who say needs to correct a great deal more
as there are who feel enough is enough. So an
interesting battle on cards. I would vote for better
days two months from now.
Europe is too busy trying to figure out what to do with
the migrants who are pouring over porous borders.
Sad as it is but is the economy there prepared to bear
the costs of these migrants? Subsidies et al. A
difficult call,once again.

18-Sep-15

Rise /Gain

Sensex

26218

1017

Nifty

7981

331

FII

DII

14- Aug-15

136.1

183.9

15- Sep -15

3123.6

480.5

16- Sep -15

(214.0)

423.8

18- Sep -15

643.5

415.0

3689.2

1503.2

FII

DII

Combined

18-Sep-15

44412.8

9755.0

54,167.9

18-Sep-15

Advances

Total

Turnover (` Cr)

So what now...better to buy when everyone is in

limbo as if the herd starts buying we would end up
chasing stocks. Indications of another bull rain in the
offing as we had mentioned in our previous
note,sceptics abound. This makes us more confident
of an unprecedented boom and I don't think we are
prepared for that. Gear up,buy and enjoy the ride,off
course corrections will come and go. Hold on buy the
dips and the rewards will be yours.

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

999

Declines
421

Ratio
2.37

Check,mate...
CPI,no not the political party,but Consumer Price
Inflation came in low at 3.66% previous month was
3.69%.
WPI came in at negative 4.95%. Tenth month in a
row. Prospects of lower inflation in months to follow
very likely.
Growth continues to remain muted. Corporate
captains clamouring for a rate cut. Banking czars too
rooting for the same. The Guv is made of different
mettle or so it seems. He is like that umpire
who,despite near desperate pleas, remains unmoved.
Only time will tell who is right and who isn't. According
to me he should have reduced it by at least 50 bps
but then when he doesn't listen to the high and
mighty,I am but a fly in the ointment.
All eyes are on Fed. Else how would one justify all the
costs that are paid to the Fed watchers,economists
and analysts. So it has become almost a necessity to
have this high drama every 45 days and all the days
in
between.
After
the
announcements
pronouncements on body language and undertone
are talked about. Meanings are read and deciphered
by reading between the lines. If the Fed is to increase
rates it doesn't matter if it is now or in December. Yes
if they decide to postpone it by say six months some
markets may have a sigh of relief.
China markets are not settled yet. But somehow by
end of day manage to close in green or just about.
This barring the last three trading days. Too much
noise and hulla baloo. Wait for things to settle down
and then take a considered decision. Difficult to
overlook a behemoth like China.
For the first time yday fii figures were positive,a wee
bit but a beginning. Although one swallow does not
make a spring...this is certainly good News that the
selling has abated. The selling figures were also
tapering down and hence this is heartening. A lot of
the froth is off and if the govt continues what it has
been doing over the past week,ie reformist
announcements,then yes we are in the cusp of a
mother of all bull runs. When the world is grappling
for growth India will standalone as a knight in shining
armor amidst the ruins. Europe could be the other
shining star.

Cni Research Limited

If your checks are resulting in placing ticks in all the

appropriate boxes pointing to a buy India, then what
are you waiting for mate?

5 Top Gainer
Stock

18-Sep-15

14-Sep-15

% Gain

MANAP FIN

25.0

21.5

16.5

JUST DIAL

933.7

816.3

14.3

BALRAM CHINI

50.4

44.6

12.8

GODREJ PROP

323.3

287.4

12.4

OBERIO REAL

258.6

231.2

11.8

5 Top Losers
Stock

18-Sep-15

14-Sep-15

% Loss

SUN ASIAN

114.7

140.6

18.4

SKS MICRO

380.6

455.8

16.5

RAJESH EXP

405.4

461.7

12.1

EMAMI LTD

1093.4

1219

10.3

BHARAT FORGE

924.1

1027.8

10.0

Top 5 Picks By CNI 'A' Group

Company
REL
REL COM
AXIS
TATA MOTORS
TATA STEEL

Top 5 Picks By CNI 'B' Group

Company

www.cniglobalbiz.com

NUTRAPLUS
AURION PRO
MERCATOR
KINETIC ENG
HIGH GROUND ENT

It isn't a flash in the pan...

The govt is moving and with apparent sincerity. After the 2 oil and gas announcements, freeing it from
shackles, the govt is now looking to tackle the problems of discoms in various states. Half of all bank npas are
on account of problems with state electricity boards and dysfunctional power problems. If this is suitably
addressed it will be a big feather in the Govt's cap. The power minister and the PM are both seized of the
matter and are already looking into the matter in great detail. The bids for gas allocation from imported gas
have already been called for. Run down PSU banks will be the most sought after stocks once this sees light of
the day.
Global markets are rallying post US markets ran up. Almost as if they have read the tea leaves and decided
the Fed is not raising rates. The costs of the error of not increasing rates is far lower than cost of error after
increasing rates. Meaning in case the economy were to tip into recession post an increase in rates it would be
a herculean task to get the economy back on an even keel. At best Ms. Yellen's commentary will, if she does
not increase rates, carry a hawkish message of interest raising soon. Currently conditions are not conducive to
an increase and it will be better to delay it slightly. USD will take a hit as longs will unwind and shift to other
currencies. Euro may rally pushing funds into metals and other riskier markets.
As said in earlier pieces, china's story is still limbo. The jury us still out as doubts persist whether to buy now or
wait. Best to let the dust settles but certainly not the time to sell.
Eurozone once again will face the stress, this time, of refugees. Else it looked like a good story. Here one can
buy the dips.
Wonder when the FIIs will see the light and smell the coffee either is good enough. They must look at India
with a new spectrum and give the same respect they did when the new govt was formed. This one has started
slowly but it will be difficult to control once the momentum gathers pace. Best to keep accumulating beaten
down but sound stocks. Infra, metals, power, PSU banks and realty stocks have been given the short
shrift...time to capitalise on this anomaly. Buy India
Last 2 weeks I was feeling so sorry when all media were kept on saying this is sell on rally market and Nifty will
test 7200. First they gave 7750 stop loss and then raised 7850 stop loss then 8000 and now 8200. Do not you
think that media has become puppet of market makers....? They want to teach you what market drivers
wants.....?
I was common sense that FED rate was never an issue. In fact, DOW fell yesterday because lot of investors
did not like FED keeping it neutral. Off Course DOW will rally today in a big way for sure to give excellent
Friday closing. This is not my judgement but many times INDIA reacts first then US and today INDIAN markets
rallied hence DOW too will rally.
IN INDIA game was done once again. Retail kept on selling believing the media and market drivers and short
trapped at 7700 and below. ( Nifty minus premium ). Now suddenly you will realise only 4 days left and traders
will rush for cutting their short till 8200 in the expiry.
With low inflation RBI has to cut rate this time. Rate cut event will fall in next settlement hence no one will carry
short positions on 28th. Therefore I feel we can see 8300 or 8400 in next FRIDAY and if this happens we will
test 9000 in OCT itself.
Historically we have seen when market falls it falls 10% and when rises it rises 10%. From 7700 10% becomes
8400 plus.....

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

We at CNI kept on telling buy dips because we are in bull market. We succeeded. We will ask our members to
remain muted to media stories and market drivers call. CNI is good enough to take of you all though we cannot
control the timings which is wholly dependent on the market drivers. Let the policy makers bring in physical
settlement as there in the global markets we will show you the power of common man and small investors.
ASSETS class makes the difference.
We recently met an INDUSTRIALIST.... asked him to invest Rs 100 crs what he said grasp it....
"I am ready to invest upto Rs 5000 crs provided I get some interest on my investment irrespective ups and
down in the share price" e g if I invest Rs 5000 crs in 10 stocks say one of it is SBI at 250 and share prices
becomes Rs 150 still I am not bothered because i am getting 12 to 18% interest ( in case of physical
settlement) which will protect my losses. Stock prices will bounce say after 12 or 18 months back to Rs 300
and I can always book profit. This is what required and will create good platform. Sooner the better for the
policy makers to take into account. This will convert 32% idle savings in assets class and INDIA will be less
dependent on the FII.

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Next Weeks Events

Monday, 21-Sep-2015
4-Week Bill Announcement
3-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday,22-Sep-2015
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Wednesday,23-Sep-2015
Consumer Price Index
Housing Market Index
Thursday,24-Sep-2015
Housing Starts
Jobless Claim
Friday, 25-Sep-2015
Leading Indicators

GLOBAL STORY
US market did not accept the no rate hike by FED and
fell for 2 consecutive days though there is no much
downside. The rationale applied by market players there
seems that the uncertainty over rate hike will get
extended by a quarter. At the same time some even fear
that FED action also suggest about their concern of
CHINA market.
We have already expressed our view on CHINA. CHINA
bubble was known for many years which we had told
you time and again even before the bubble got burst. But
there is always a tendency to react too sharply when
event happens. e g US housing bubble was in talks from
JAN 2008 but the impact came and reaction ( too sharp )
came only after LEHMAN has happened in OCT 2008.
This happens because there is one element HEDGE
FUND which take aggressive bets on any country for 10
to 20 returns and their exposure generally ranks highest.
Their exit and speed too surprises street. This is what
happened in 2008 OCT and again in Sept 2015.
All the global markets are interconnected. If US falls the
redemption pressure mounts on EM as well as other
global markets. Therefore there will always be flight of
capital for which market is never prepared. Some
markets like US and China have market stabilisation
fund yet these markets too give up when the exit
pressure mounts.
We call this as TSUNAMI. Post tsunami reconstruction
starts. US and China did see TSUNAMI due to debt
issue in US and China slow growth and NPA bubble.
India too was affected due to the global redemption.
Apart from these global issues INDIA was soft target of
physical settlement hence even after CNINA and US fall
INDIA kept on rising. Next 4 days we believe market will
rise even though the movement will be volatile. Rate cut
hopes will drive market till 29th.
Indian markets were desiring a good correction and it
came and hence doors of new high are already opened.
We expect Nifty to test 9700. The other factors were
already discussed hence we are not repeating.

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Global Indices
Country

Indices

Date

Index

Net Change

Change

Hong Kong

Hang Seng

19/09

21,920.83

+66.20

+0.30

Singapore

Straits Times

19/09

2,879.59

-16.22

-0.56

United States

NASDAQ

19/09

4,827.23

-66.72

-1.36

United States

DJIA

19/09

16,384.58

-290.16

-1.74

United States

S&P 500

19/09

1,958.03

-32.17

-1.62

Japan

Nikkei 225

19/09

18,070.21

-362.06

-1.96

United Kingdom

FTSE 100

19/09

6,104.11

-82.88

-1.34

Malaysia

KLSE Composite

19/09

1,669.45

-12.09

-0.72

Indonesia

Jakarta Composite

19/09

4,380.32

+1.94

+0.04

Thailand

SET

19/09

1,390.32

+0.62

+0.04

France

CAC 40

19/09

4,535.85

-119.29

-2.56

Germany

DAX

19/09

9,916.16

-313.42

-3.06

Argentina

MerVal

19/09

10,555.28

-244.99

-2.27

Brazil

Bovespa

19/09

47,264.08

-1,287.00

-2.65

Mexico

IPC

19/09

43,565.05

-225.88

-0.52

Austria

ATX

19/09

2,240.83

-49.60

-2.17

Belgium

BEL-20

19/09

3,418.37

-48.59

-1.40

Netherlands

AEX General

19/09

427.32

-10.31

-2.36

Spain

Madrid General

19/09

995.36

-25.67

-2.51

Switzerland

Swiss Market

19/09

8,739.22

-110.21

-1.25

Australia

All Ordinaries

19/09

5,194.30

+23.15

+0.45

China

Shanghai Composite

19/09

3,097.92

+11.86

+0.38

Philippines

PSE Composite

19/09

7,131.91

+7.92

+0.11

Sri Lanka

All Share

19/09

7,107.87

-5.64

-0.08

Taiwan

Taiwan Weighted

19/09

8,462.14

+16.64

+0.20

East Egypt

CMA

19/09

1,392.03

-1.40

-0.10

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Bulk deal
Company Name

Date

BSE Code

Client Name

Deal Type

Quantity

Price (Rs)

AFEL

18-Sep-15

538351

T R METAL

25000

126.8

AFEL

18-Sep-15

538351

RAJESH S

20161

126.8

AFEL

18-Sep-15

538351

RAJESH S

11396

126.8

AFEL

18-Sep-15

538351

SHIVESH

32628

126.8

AFEL

18-Sep-15

538351

SHIVESH

32504

126.8

BRUSHMAN

18-Sep-15

590061

SHAILENDR

57705

0.42

DONEAR

18-Sep-15

512519

LOTUS GLO

559125

14.5

OONE

18-Sep-15

535657

HARISHKUM

110750

8.93

OONE

18-Sep-15

535657

HARISHKUM

110750

8.93

OONE

18-Sep-15

535657

JAINESH S

87580

8.97

Ucal Fuel

18-Sep-15

UCALFUEL

CARBURETT

500000

94

Ucal Fuel

18-Sep-15

UCALFUEL

MINICA RE

500000

94

ABG Shipy

16-Sep-15

ABGSHIP

STRATEGIC

370202

157

ABG Shipy

16-Sep-15

ABGSHIP

STRATEGIC

370202

157.25

AmtekAuto

16-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

GENUINE S

1954097

48.85

AmtekAuto

16-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

N.K. SECU

1214382

48.28

AmtekAuto

16-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

GENUINE S

1954097

49

AmtekAuto

16-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

N.K. SECU

1214382

48

AmtekAuto

16-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

GENUINE S

1954097

49

TVS Motor

16-Sep-15

TVSMOTOR

TVS MOTOR

2375500

231

TVS Motor

16-Sep-15

TVSMOTOR

TVS MOTOR

2375500

231

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett

15-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

GENUINE STOCK BROKER

1721585

53.37

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett

15-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

SHAASTRA SECURITIES

1291960

53.11

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett

15-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

GENUINE STOCK BROKER

1721585

53.38

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett

15-Sep-15

AMTEKAUTO

SHAASTRA SECURITIES

1291960

53.13

Lycos Internet Limited

15-Sep-15

LYCOS

QUANT CAPITAL HOLDIN

2500000

24.61

Lycos Internet Limited

15-Sep-15

LYCOS

QUANT

2500000

24.61

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Call put option

Option Month Strike Price

PUT
Volume

CALL

September - 7600.00

11204425

Best
Buy
8.1

September - 7650.00

338625

10.3

11.5

11.15

119800

14.83

9225

285.1

330.3

323.05

51075

-5.59

September - 7700.00

14123425

14.3

14.9

14.85

3154025

-1.16

1122200

274.5

277.55

274.5

1367150

-11.01

September - 7750.00

519975

16.2

20

20

137200

32.56

45400

212.85

240.65

230

28750

-23.08

September - 7800.00

21888075

27

27.15

27

4891100

-3.73

3855675

183.7

186.5

183.7

2632325

-26.93

September - 7850.00

2536975

37.5

38.7

38.3

507800

87.1

229225

150

155

150

132250

-39.25

September - 7900.00

27905450

52

52.9

52

2827825

17.93

9418200

111.4

112.25

112.25

2208450

-32.35

September - 7950.00

1771325

69.3

71.25

72

338500

695.07

550800

76

85

79

118600

-15.83

September - 8000.00

25154775

94.4

94.75

94.4

3776875

23.94

28354275

56

57

57

3333325

-23.53

September - 8050.00

410200

121.45

122.35

122.35

112500

551.23

1743600

36.25

37.7

37

318875

90.89

September - 8100.00

5530175

158.55

159.95

162

1237000

12.65

28044775

22.6

23

23

3264600

-17.59

September - 8150.00

31050

194.95

199.9

195.95

24900

356.88

1996850

13.45

14.45

14.15

404075

19.66

September - 8200.00

1217700

242.25

246.15

243

1446575

1.14

22892075

8.15

8.25

8.25

3647025

-22.13

September - 8250.00

12325

267.6

304.4

275.4

15425

-7.08

1064650

4.6

5.3

4.8

260050

87.25

September - 8300.00

299475

336.2

339.5

338

643175

-10.14

14965225

3.3

3.4

3.3

2903025

-14.31

September - 8350.00

375

366.6

390

334.5

1825

5.8

372325

2.3

2.5

2.3

131475

71.41

September - 8400.00

108850

430

437.45

429.95

675225

-4.34

6197850

1.8

1.95

1.8

2913825

-0.45

September - 8450.00

50

375.05

644.85

450

1600

3.23

77675

1.65

2.25

59250

79.14

September - 8500.00

185425

527.45

531.25

528.6

588975

-16.22

3045900

1.35

1.4

1.4

3460825

-10.1

September - 8550.00

410

761.25

799.8

5850

4900

0.75

1.3

0.8

28700

-7.42

September - 8600.00

48200

627.25

629.75

628.3

238750

-13.56

709000

1.15

1.25

1.15

1345125

-8.82

September - 8650.00

490.55

865

660

50

75

0.3

1.5

0.4

24925

-0.3

September - 8700.00

24275

726.1

730

725

157950

-10.67

371400

0.55

0.6

0.55

1510825

-0.59

Cni Research Limited

Best
Sell
8.3

LTP

OI

Volume

3995600

Change
OI(%)
-6.62

8.1

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Best
Sell
368.2

LTP

OI

496750

Best
Buy
366

366

601350

Change
OI(%)
-32.3

DISCLAIMER STATEMENT
This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an
investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this
document is solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document
is not in recommender nature. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including
the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors.
The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without
any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be
required from time to time without any prior approval.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
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Copyright in this document vests exclusively with CNI Research Ltd.

Name of Editor: Minit jhaveri

Publisher:
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