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September 21, 2015

Vol 5.Issue XIV

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India 2015-16 Main Paddy Rice Sowing

Surges Despite Weak Monsoons
Sep 18, 2015

Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) is continuing to
be ahead of the last year planting despite concerns of weaker rains in the second half of the
monsoon season (August-September). Total rice planted area stood at around 37.266 million
hectares as of September 18, 2015, slightly up from around 37.19 million hectares planted during
the same time last year, according to a press release by the Agriculture Ministry.
India received 15% below-average rainfall as of September 17, according to the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD). The North-west, Central, Southern and North-East regions
received 21%, 18%, 13% and 8% below-average rains respectively. However, the IMD expects
most parts of the country to receive normal to above-normal rain from September 19 to October
3, 2016.

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The IMD forecast a 16% deficit in the rainfall during the second half (August-September) of the
monsoon season (June-September). A likely drought-inducing El Nino this year is expected to
lower production prospects in India this year. The IMD has forecasted the El Nino pattern to
reach to moderate to a strong one during the monsoon season (June September).
Global rice prices are expected to increase by 10-20% as El Nino is likely to dampen production
prospects in Asian countries, including India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
The total Kharif crop sown area stands at 102.19 million hectares as on September 18, 2015, up
about 1.59% from around 100.59 million hectares during the same period last year, according to
the Agriculture Ministry.

Indonesia May Face Shortage of Subsidized

Rice Stocks by Year End, Says Bulog Chief
Sep 18, 2015

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Indonesia may face shortage of national stock of subsidized rice by the end of this year due to the
government's decision to distribute more rice to the poor, local sources quoted the state logistics
agency Chief as saying.
He told local sources that at the current pace, Bulog's stocks would reach 62,000 tons, while the
agency needs about 1.5 to 2 million tons to meet the consumption demand in the early next year
before the harvest time. He noted that the subsidized rice program, called beras sejahtera
(prosperous rice), has been extended by two months to restore purchasing power and confidence
in the economy on concerns of El Nino induced dry weather that is threatening to cut rice
production this year.
However, he did not mention anything about likely imports to maintain stocks. The Bulog Chief
noted that the government could also decide to procure more rice from farmers or convert the
existing premium rice into subsidized rice to avert rice shortages. Indonesian government is keen
on avoiding imports this year and has not imported as rice so far in 2015.
The Agriculture Ministry is understood to maintain next year's rice production target at this
year's level. The reason the target remains the same is because this year we have experienced El
Nio and that has severely affected our rice production, the Agriculture Minister was quoted.
USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around
57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15
(October - September).

Global Rice Quotes

September 18th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 350-360

Vietnam 5% broken

325-335

India 5% broken

355-355

Pakistan 5% broken

310-320

Myanmar 5% broken

415-425

Cambodia 5% broken

420-430

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U.S. 4% broken 530-540

Uruguay 5% broken

535-545

Argentina 5% broken

530-540

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken

325-335

Vietnam 25% broken

315-325

Pakistan 25% broken

290-300

Cambodia 25% broken 405-415

India 25% broken

315-325

U.S. 15% broken

500-510

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

340-350

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

415-425

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

570-580

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

545-555

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 810-820

Vietnam Jasmine

450-460

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

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Cambodia Phka Mails

830-840

305-315

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super

Pakistan 100% broken stxd

Cambodia A1 Super

275-285

355-365

India 100% broken stxd 300-310

Egypt medium grain brokens

NQ

U.S. pet food

335-345

Brazil half grain NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Myanmar Rice Federation to issue Export

Licences for Up to 500 Tons
Sep 18, 2015

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The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) is planning to issue export licences to exporters for up to
500 tons of rice, according to local sources. The MRF has called on companies to apply to the
Ministry of Commerce for licences.
However, the MRF told local sources that it will grant licences for both land and sea trade but
would require interested companies to maintain a reserve of 2% of exports for six months. The
licences will reportedly valid for one month. It also noted that it is holding discussions with the
Commerce Ministry on the same.
With about 34.8 million tons of rice in reserves and amid expectations of a bumper harvest, the
MRF expects exports to resume completely by October. Dr Soe Tun, the MRFs vice-chair, said:
A cargo ship can carry 1,000 tonnes of rice. We might face difficulty loading rice onto a ship if
only 500 tonnes of rice is allowed.
After the country's rice exports reached a record in 1.8 million tons in FY 2014-15 (April March), the government expected to export around 2 million tons in FY 2015-16. However, in
the aftermath of floods and temporary suspension of exports for more than a month, the exports
are expected to be around 1.6 million tons.

U.S.-China Trade Protocol Still Not

Finalized, Says USA Rice Federation
Sep 18, 2015

The phytosanitary protocol between China and the U.S., which reportedly establishes the
phytosanitary or pest control rules necessary to allow U.S. rice into China, is still not finalized,
Bloomberg reported the USA Rice Federation as saying.
The Federation has denied claims by the US Rice Producers Association early this week that the
U.S. and China will sign a phytosanitary protocol during the week of September 21, 2015 when
Chinese President Xi Jinping leads a delegation on an official visit to the U.S.
Citing information from USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), the
Federation noted that the phytosanitary protocol between the two countries is still undergoing
regulatory review in China.
It noted that the USDA APHIS is working closely with U.S. rice industry, Chinas
Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine to come to a bilateral
agreement on the final set of protocols for exporting U.S. milled rice to China.

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The USDA APHIS sent its latest phytosanitary protocol to China last month and is expecting
China's response to the U.S.' draft protocol soon.

Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their

Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes
Unchanged
Sep 18, 2015

Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around
$340-$350 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday
and about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton. India
5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%
rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.

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25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice was last shown at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $320- $330 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$315 - $325 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $290 $300 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $340- $350 per ton, about $75 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last
shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, was last indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton, at par with
Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is
shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed
rice shown at around $275 - $285 per ton.

Online Marketing Tool to be Launched for

EU Farmers
Sep 18, 2015

A new online marketing tool called "Farm Inc" is to be launched shortly to help European Union
(EU) farmers to better market and brand their products independently and thereby face global
competitions in a better manner.
The project is supported and co-funded by the European Union (EU) and was carried out by
seven partner institutions, including universities, agricultural associations, VET providers and
consulting firms from five EU countries of Belgium, Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Latvia. CopaCogeca, the federation of European farmers unions and agri cooperatives, Italian Coldiretti and
Latvian Farmers Parliament have been involved in promoting the product.
They showcased during a series of roundtable discussions and info days across Europe, in
Belgium, Greece, Italy and Latvia in September. About 304 stakeholders, including farmers,
representatives of farmer associations, agricultural entrepreneurs, VET trainers and policy

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makers, participated in 21 pilot events in the targeted countries. While 46% of the participants
rated the material as "excellent", 47% rated as "very good" and 100% said they would
recommend this course to others.
The project involves a customized training tool and an interactive e-book, which contains basic
marketing principles for the agricultural sector as well as practical experiences (case studies,
field visits etc). The book is divided into six modules - What is marketing?, A good marketing
plan, Farmers markets, Quality, The strength of a Rural Brand, Selling Abroad - and primarily
focuses on marketing, branding and internationalisation of agricultural products.
There is a great potential for regional and local products in the market, but, there is a lack of
marketing strategies to enable European agricultural entrepreneurs to compete with the
international network and structures of multinational companies," said the Secretary-General of
Copa-Cogeca.

Oryza Weekly: Prices Have Yet to Respond to

Forecasts for Strong El Nino
Sep 18, 2015

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,
ended the week at about $387 per ton, down about $4 per ton from a week ago, down about $6
per ton from a month ago and down about $83 per ton from a year ago.
In its September 2015 Rice Outlook report, the USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice production
(milled basis) to be around 475.8 million tons, down about 1% from last year due to an expected
decline in average yields. Southeast Asia, North Africa, and North America account for most of
the expected global rice production decline. In the same report, the USDA forecasts 2015 global
rice trade to be around 42.5 million tons, a decrease of about 2% from 2014 but unchanged from
last months forecast.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $345 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,
down about $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $90 per ton from a year ago.
The Agriculture Minister may impose a ban on second crop planting in about 2.4 million
hectares of rice land due to intense water shortages.

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The Thai Office of Agricultural Economics estimates paddy rice production for 2015-16 may
plunge to its lowest level in 19 years due to the extending drought conditions.
Thailand's Finance Ministry may demand damages up to 510 billion baht (around $14.8 billion)
incurred in the rice pledging scheme from the former Prime Minister as well as the other accused
Cabinet Ministers and officials involved in the rice pledging scheme
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $330 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week
ago, down about $15 per ton from month ago and down about $115 per ton from a year ago.
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $425 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,
down about $10 per ton from a month ago, and down about $45 per ton from a year ago. Dam
waters have flooded some rice paddy fields in Cambodia, reigniting concerns over Mekong
Region Hydropower Projects.
India
India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, down about $20 per ton from a week
ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago, and down about $80 per ton from a year ago.
The government forecasts 2015-16 kharif (June-December) rice production at around 90.6
million tons, down slightly from 2014-15.
Total rice planted area stood at around 37.266 million hectares as of September 18, 2015, slightly
up from around 37.19 million hectares planted during the same time last year, according to a
press release by the Agriculture Ministry.
Rice traders and millers in Nepal are seeking government intervention to curb rice imports,
especially rice imports from India traveling through land borders.
Rice farmers in Bangladesh are facing lower prices and higher supplies, as the country achieved
a record 34.708 million tons production in FY 2014-15.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $315 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a
week ago, down about $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $110 per ton from a year
ago.

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A delegation from the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) met with the Prime
Minister last week to seek government protection of the rice export trade.
The Prime Minister has announced a relief package of Rs.351 billion (around $3.3 billion) to the
agriculture sector, including the rice sector, in order to help farmers reduce production costs and
simplify the agricultural loan processes.
The President of the Union of Small and Medium Enterprises is urging the government to
conduct rice cooking competitions in order to promote exports.
Basmati rice export prices increased in August after declining continuously for three months,
according to the UNs FAO.
The chairman of REAP says the rice export sector is disappointed that the agriculture relief
package has not considered its demands, noting that the Rs.5,000 per acre (around $120 per
hectare) subsidy is not sufficient for basmati rice farmers.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week and a
month ago and down about $110 per ton from a year ago. Brazils Conab has forecasted the
countrys 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.449 million tons, up about 2.7% from
production in 2013-14. Rice acreage is also down about 3.3% y/y.
Five per cent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $540 per ton,
unchanged from a week and a month ago, and down about $75 per ton from a year ago.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $535 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about
$45 per ton from a month ago and up about $5 per ton from a year ago.
In its September World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates report, the USDA estimates
U.S. 2015-16 all rice supplies to be around 11.95 million tons, a decrease from last months
forecast and from 2014-15s supplies, due to expected lower production.
The U.S. rice industry opposes the emerging Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal with Japan,
and is making it clear that they would not support the deal if their demands on tariff free higher
quota and quality access to Japans rice market are not met.

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The phytosanitary protocol between China and the U.S., which reportedly that establishes the
phytosanitary or pest control rules necessary to allow U.S. rice into China, is undergoing
regulatory review in China. The USDA is expecting China's response to its latest phytosanitary
protocol sent last month.
Other Markets
Droughts in Indonesia reduced rice production, lifting rice prices. Supply shortages and elevated
prices have pushed the government to distribute more rice to the poor, depleting the nations rice
stocks and likely leading to imports.
The government of Myanmar has partially lifted the ban on rice exports, which was imposed in
early August. Rice exports by sea will now be allowed, but cross-border trade remains banned.
Myanmar has lowered its export estimate for 2015-16 from about 2 million tons to 1.6 million
tons. The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) is planning to issue export licenses to exporters for
up to 500 tons of rice for both land and sea trade, according to local sources. The MRF has called
on companies to apply to the Ministry of Commerce for licenses.
Due to high prices, the Iraq Trade Ministry has again extended its deadline to buy at least
30,000 tons of rice in international tenders from the U.S., Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, and
India. The new deadline is September 17.
The Philippines National Food Authority (NFA) will import 750,000 tons of 25% broken rice
at $426.83 per ton from the governments of Thailand (supplying 300,000 tons) and Vietnam
(450,000 tons), according to local sources. Under this tender, 250,000 tons will be imported this
year, including 125,000 tons in November and 125,000 tons in December, and 500,000 tons will
be imported next year. The extra imports are part of efforts to boost stocks amid concerns that
the countrys production will be hurt by the El Nio weather pattern.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences estimates
Australias paddy rice production in MY 2015-16 to be around 655,000 tons, a decrease of
about 10% from production in MY 2014-15.
Paddy sales in Italy in the first week of the new crop year 2015-16 have remained sluggish due
to low availability of stocks.
European paddy quotes in the first week of the crop year 2015-16 (September-August) showed
some slight movements with opposite trends in different countries.
A new online marketing tool called "Farm Inc" is to be launched shortly to help EU farmers to
market better and brand their products independently and thereby face global competitions in a
better manner.

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