Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

Word Count: 1939

Question: (4):

Assess political stability in the oil monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula since 2000. What is
the outlook?

The Arab Gulf Monarchies are a collection of six states bordering the Persian Gulf, consisting of
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).1 By the time these
states were all independent in the early 1970s, forecasts of their collapse had already been
predicted. But even now, well into the twenty-first century, these absolutist, almost medieval
entities still appear to defy their critics re-affirming their status as the Middle Easts only real
bastion of stability.2 This essay will assess the current political stability of the Gulf monarchies by
first providing a contextual backdrop to the transformation of the Gulf Monarchies into rentier
states. This allows for a better understanding of the following analysis of the present internal and
external features contributing to the survival of these monarchies and the mounting internal and
external pressures which academics such as Christopher Davidson postulate will lead to their
inevitable collapse.3

Since the forming of the six Gulf monarchies, it becomes apparent that the expectations of their
inevitable demises were erroneous,4 with all having implemented capitalist modes of production,
progressing from poor isolated communities into wealthy and technologically advanced nations.5
Its thought that the oil revenues of these countries that sparked their sustained growth would

Kechichian, J. A. (2008) Power and succession in Arab monarchies : a reference guide., p. xi.
Davidson, C. M. (2013) After the sheikhs: the coming collapse of the gulf monarchies., pp. 1-3.
3
ibid., p. 2.
4
ibid., p. 5.
5
Foley, S. (2010) The Arab Gulf States : beyond oil and Islam., p. 3.
2

Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

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ultimately result in the transition to pluralist participatory democracies.6 However, the Gulf
economies never really spawned a proletariator at least one interested in overthrowing the
classes above it.7 Nevertheless, an educated, urban and mass communications-literate population
developed in each of these states. The quintessential question that arose from this was: Why had
the rapid economic development in these countries not led to democratic reforms?8 These
Monarchies had developed into what scholars Hazem Al Beblawi and Giacomo Luciani termed
rentier states.9
A state that economically supports society and is the main source of private revenues
through government expenditure, while in turn supported by revenue accruing from abroad,
does not need to respond to society. On the contrary, a state that is supported by society,
through taxes levied on one form or another, will in the final analysis be obliged to respond
to social pressure.10

The Gulf monarchies were real-life examples of Beblawis and Lucianis description, distributing rent
to their citizens in the form of various economic benefits, providing of public sector jobs, to the
direct transfer of capital, with the addition of vast numbers of expatriates to fulfil labour
requirements, forming a rentier class, dependent on government subsidies.11 This creation of a
rentier state system provides for the internal and external features the Gulf monarchies owe to their
stability. However, this structure is also the contributing factor to the mounting internal and external
pressures that the Gulf monarchies face.

Crystal, J. (1990) Oil and politics in the Gulf : rulers and merchants in Kuwait and Qatar,. p. 6.
Davidson, op.cit., p. 5.
8
Ehteshami, A. (2003) The Politics of Participation Najem, T., & Hetherington, M. Good governance in the Middle
East oil monarchies., p. 65.
9
MacQueen, B. (2013). An introduction to Middle East politics., p. 185.
10
Luciani, G. (1995) Resources, Revenues, and Authoritarianism in the Arab World: Beyond the Rentier State
Brynen, R., Korany, B. Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World., p. 211.
11
Davidson, op.cit., p. 6.
7

Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

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The survival of the Gulf monarchies, lies at the core of rentier state theory, in that the states have
traded political participation for tax revenue.12 These social contracts that exist between the
monarchies and their populations have appeased most, allowing for the avoidance of repression or
the coercive maintenance of these states.13 The primary explanation for the Gulf monarchies
survival rests in their internal features. One of these is the distribution of wealth. An example of this
is the free housing, in which recipients in these states can now expect sizable apartments and
villas.14 The 2008 announcement from Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President
and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, that over 40,000 new villas would be constructed
for UAE nationals contextually illustrates this.15 Another example is the granting of land for
agricultural and commercial use to citizens. For example, in Qatar, application for land is made
directly to the Emirs court, a process in which the Emirs patronage is reinforced both symbolically
and practically.16 Other examples of distributing wealth include: social security benefits, public
sector employment, the cancellation of debts and government charity to citizens who have slipped
through the states welfare system.17

Another internal feature providing stability is the concept of national elitism. Given that the benefits
of the welfare state are geared primarily towards citizens, it has been clear that a subtle building of a
divide between citizens and expatriates has been created.18 In essence, regardless of your

12

Herb, M. (1999) All in the family : absolutism, revolution, and democracy in the Middle Eastern monarchies., p.
257.
13
Davidson, op.cit., p. 49.
14
ibid., p.51.S
15
Nazzal, N. (2008) Study shows 5,000 homes need to be replaced,
http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/uae/housing-property/study-shows-5-000-homes-need-to-be-replaced1.78980, (accessed 16 May 2015).
16
Kamrava, M. (2009) Royal Factionalism and Political Liberalization in Qatar The Middle East Journal, 63:3, p.
406.
17
Davidson, op.cit., pp. 50-58.
18
ibid., p. 58.

Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

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circumstances and background, citizens of these states can assume a relatively high social standing.19
Encouragement of this divide has been through the indirect control over citizens marriages.20 For
example, some Gulf Monarchies such as the UAE offer marriage funds to young male nationals who
are betrothed to fellow nationals.21

Another stabilizing factor is the large expatriate populations. For decades the Gulf Monarchies have
relied on substantial expatriate workforces, not only because of the small size of their indigenous
populations but also because of their preference for public sector employment.22 Gulf
expatriates are best regarded as temporary economic migrants, who enjoy tax free salaries, usually
better than can be expected in their home countries. They have no real interests in politics of the
host country, thus providing a silent support base for the ruling families.23

However, in parallel to their existing ruling bargains, there also exists several strategies aimed at
securing survival and raising the status of the Gulf monarchies in the region and internationally.24
One of these external features is their profound strategic generosity in development assistance and
international charity. Gulf monarchies have been increasingly pro-active in distributing wealth and
resources to less fortunate neighbours, such as Palestine and Lebanon, to East African states such as
Somalia and Sudan, without the exclusion of South Asian states such as India and Pakistan.25 A

19

Lucas, R.E.. (2004) Monarchical authoritarianism: survival and political liberalization in a middle eastern regime
type International Journal of Middle East Studies, 36:1, pp. 103-119.
20
Davidson, op.cit., p. 59.
21
Kamrava, op.cit.
22
Davidson, op.cit., p. 62.
23
Ibid., p. 63.
24
25

Ibid., p. 79.
Ibid., pp. 81-85

Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

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contextual example of this generosity would be the UAEs 2008 cancelation of all Iraqs outstanding
debt to the UAE to help alleviate the economic burdens endured by the brotherly Iraqi people.26

Another feature is their increase of soft power in the West, through the application of strategic
investment in property, the funding of western cultural institutions, and the financing of western
universities. An example of this would be the UAEs conspicuous purchase of the Tussauds Group in
2007, which consist of assets such as the London Eye, and Madame Tussauds waxworks in London.27

Despite the Gulf Monarchies internal and external survival strategies there are none the less
several weaknesses and pathologies that have been undermining their politics.28 Regarding the
mounting internal pressures, the most apparent predicament is the declining hydrocarbon reserves,
coupled with increasing indigenous populations putting strain on the ability to provide the subsidies
expected by nationals. For example, Saudi Arabias gradual reforms can be linked to the realization
by the royal family that the days of plentiful oil revenues are over as stated by the Crown Prince
Abdallah.29

Another internal pressure is the increasingly high levels of voluntary unemployment, described as a
fostering of a national elite, dependent of the welfare state.30 In the mid-1990s even the ruler of Abu
Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed II bin Sultan Al Nahyan stated that he could not understand how physically fit

26

Davidson, C. M. (2011) Abu Dhabi: Oil and Beyond., p. 140.

Kollewe, J. (2007) Madame Tussauds bought out in private equity deal,
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2007/mar/05/privateequity1, (accessed 16 May 2015).
28
Davidson, op.cit., p. 111.
29
ibid.
30
Davidson, op.cit., p. 117.
27

Student: Sebastian Moore

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young men can sit idle and accept the humiliation of depending on others for their livelihood.31
Supplementary to this, the squandering of wealth through vain copycat-spending of competing
monarchies has led to a noticeable duplication of high profile investments in the region, usually with
little cooperation between neighbours and minimal regard for long term planning.32 To illustrate
this, each Gulf monarchy, with at least having one international airport each, all have their own
international airlines.33

A more immediate internal pressure is the now evident breakdown of their [the Gulf monarchies]
capacity to provide the most basic facilities and economic opportunities for citizens34, creating
poverty and real unemployment. Examples of this are Bahrain and Oman. In Bahrains case it is
thought that unemployment is as high as 15%,35 with the same percentage being estimated in
Oman.36 With regards to poverty, there is increasing evidence in Saudi Arabia of large numbers of
nationals struggling to make ends meet.37 Other anxieties that the monarchies face are
discrimination of Shia communities in the Gulf, the rise of stateless populations, and sectarianism.38

As well as mounting internal pressures, accumulating external pressures are also posing
themselves.39 The most obvious of these pressures would be the welcoming of foreigners through
policy adjustments, eroding the monarchies legitimacy with their nationals. These adjustments have

31

Wilson, G. (2006) Rashid's Legacy: The Genesis of the Maktown Family and the History of Dubai., p. 528.
Davidson, op.cit., p. 122.
33
ibid.
34
Ibid., p. 129.
35
Central Intelligence Agency. (2014). CIA World Factbook 2014, Country overview on Bahrain,
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ba.html (accessed 15 May 2014).
36
Central Intelligence Agency. (2014). CIA World Factbook 2014, Country overview on Oman,
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mu.html (accessed 15 May 2014).
37
Davidson, op.cit., p. 130.
38
ibid., pp. 134-153.
39
ibid., p. 155.
32

Student: Sebastian Moore

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come with relaxations in policy regarding alcohol consumption, gambling and prostitution.40
Criticism from nationals regarding these issues is becoming increasingly loud, with even Dubais
chief police publically stating that expatriates and tourists pose a serious threat to national identities
and societal norms in the Gulf monarchies.41

Becoming increasingly problematic is the significant expansion of the physical Western military
footprint in the Gulf monarchies territories.42 Although still viewed as necessary by the ruling
families in order to protect from foreign aggression, as details regarding the size and scope of
western military operations in the Gulf monarchies becomes public, further criticism from nationals
presents itself.43 This western presence has culminated in other external pressures, such as the
antagonising of Iran due to the increasing belligerence demonstrated towards it, owing to the Gulf
monarchies reliance on Western security guarantees.44 On the other hand, there has been discreet
strengthening of political and economic relations with Israel.45 This is an especially hazardous policy,
given the Gulf monarchies history of boycotting Israel due to their public alignment with the Arab
refusal front.46 Regardless of these shared threats, cooperation between the Gulf Monarchies has
been less than ideal. This is illustrated in Omans and the UAEs announced withdrawals from the
Co-operation Council for the Arab states of the Gulf, which many expected to present a united-front
for the Gulf monarchies.47

40

ibid., pp. 153-163.

41

Ibid., pp. 161.

42

Davidson, op.cit., p. 163.

ibid.
44
ibid., p. 169.
45
ibid., p. 175.
46
Roy, O., & Schwartz, R. (2009) The Politics of Chaos in the Middle East., p. 96.
47
Davidson, op.cit., pp. 179180.
43

Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

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When analysing the internal and external survival strategies, and the mounting internal and external
pressures, a current outlook for each of the Gulf monarchies can be postulated. Beginning with
Bahrain, this oil monarchy has undoubtedly an unpromising future, with academic Christopher
Davidson stating there is little hope that the ruling family can restore sufficient legitimacy to ever
govern again without resorting to martial law and extensive repression.48 Oman, has a less hopeless
outlook, however, with limited natural resources, Oman cannot rely indefinitely on its ability to
distribute wealth, placating its nationals demands.49 Saudi Arabia currently with its seemingly
endless natural resources is still able to appease its citizens through wealth distribution. However,
again some academics state that the Saudi system is unsustainable, and prone to implosion within
the next two years.50 This postulation is reinforced by the continuing demonstrations, regardless of
new government subsidies, and the creation of new public sector jobs. Moving on to Kuwait, with
the Emir Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah choosing to dissolve parliament in June 2012, rather
than allow demands for anti-corruption investigations, he has undoubtedly made his position
weaker.51 The UAE seemingly in a stronger position to other Gulf monarchies appears to have a
placated citizenry. However, the UAE is not the exception to having limited natural resources. The
question for how long the distribution of wealth can continue presents itself again. The only
exemption to this seemingly bleak outlook is Qatar. With its present ability to sustain high levels of
wealth distribution to its citizens it seems at first glance Qatar has brought itself out of the possible
ill effects of modernity.52

48

ibid., p. 232.
ibid., p. 233.
50
ibid.
51
Davidson, op.cit., p. 235.
52
Fromherz, A. J. (2012) Qatar : a modern history., p. 8.
49

Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

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The six oil monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula since their independencies have applied their
established rentier political economies (based on rent received from hydrocarbons) to create
internal and external political stabilising strategies placating their citizenries, and inhibiting political
participation. However, due to the limited nature of these reserves, the stabilising strategies that for
so long have secured these monarchies will, if not already, begin to fall in on themselves. Whether
this postulated collapse is occurring now, or in the next century, it is an indefinite prospect.

Student: Sebastian Moore

POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

Word Count: 1939

Bibliography:
1. Luciani, G. (1995) Resources, Revenues, and Authoritarianism in the Arab World:
Beyond the Rentier State Brynen, R., Korany, B. Political Liberalization and
Democratization in the Arab World: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
2. Central Intelligence Agency. (2014). CIA World Factbook 2014, Country overview on
Bahrain, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ba.html
(accessed 15 May 2014).
3. Central Intelligence Agency. (2014). CIA World Factbook 2014, Country overview on
Oman, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mu.html
(accessed 15 May 2014).
4. Crystal, J. (1990). Oil and politics in the Gulf : rulers and merchants in Kuwait and
Qatar. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
5. Davidson, C. M. (2013). After the sheikhs : the coming collapse of the gulf monarchies:
Oxford: Oxford University Press.
6. Davidson, C. M. (2011). Abu Dhabi: Oil and Beyond. London: Hurst.
7. Foley, S. (2010). The Arab Gulf States : beyond oil and Islam. Boulder: Lynne Rienner
Publishers.
8. Fromherz, A. J. (2012). Qatar : a modern history. Washington, DC: Georgetown
University Press.
9. Herb, M. (1999). All in the family : absolutism, revolution, and democracy in the Middle
Eastern monarchies. Albany: State University of New York Press.
10. Kamrava, M. (2009) Royal Factionalism and Political Liberalization in Qatar The
Middle East Journal, 63:3, 401-420.
11. Kechichian, J. A. (2008). Power and succession in Arab monarchies : a reference guide.
Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
12. Kollewe, J. (2007) Madame Tussauds bought out in private equity deal,
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2007/mar/05/privateequity1, (accessed 16 May
2015).
13. Lucas, R. E. (2004). Monarchical authoritarianism: survival and political liberalization in
a middle eastern regime type. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 36:1, 103119.
14. MacQueen, B. (2013). An introduction to Middle East politics. London: Sage
Publications.

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POLS210: 2000 Word Essay

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15. Ehteshami, A. (2003) The Politics of Participation Najem, T., & Hetherington, M.
Good governance in the Middle East oil monarchies: New York: Routledge.

16. Nazzal, N. (2008) Study shows 5,000 homes need to be replaced,

http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/uae/housing-property/study-shows-5-000-homesneed-to-be-replaced-1.78980, (accessed 16 May 2015).
17. Roy, O., & Schwartz, R. (2009). The Politics of Chaos in the Middle East: Columbia
University Press.
18. Wilson, G. (2006). Rashid's Legacy: The Genesis of the Maktown Family and the History
of Dubai. Dubai: Media Prima.