Installed Cabling

- forecast to 2005 Alan Flatman

Principal Consultant
LAN Technologies UK
a_flatman@compuserve.com

Acknowledgements
This study was commissioned by Cisco Systems.
Base cabling market data was provided by BSRIA.

Big Questions

What kind of cabling for 10GBASE-T?

1. Where are we today in terms of cabling?
2. If 10GBASE-T becomes an approved 802.3
project, what will the installed cabling base
look like when it is likely to be approved
(early 2006)?

Market Data

1. Cable types by Category/Class

2. Installation trends BC to 2005
3. National & regional variations
4. Global installed base to 2005

Data Sources

BSRIA

Cabling Industry

providing replacement data

10 suppliers being surveyed

(owning 60% market share)

consultants also surveyed

replacement rate guide now /

detailed data in March 2003

Building Services Research

and Information Association

Cabling research since 1987

37 countries forecast to 2005

Cat segmentation by country

Types of Copper Cabling

Cable Insertion Loss & NEXT

80
70

NEXT
dB

60
Cat 7

50
40
Cat 5e

Ins Loss
dB/100m

Cat 6

30
Cat 5

20

Cat 3

10
0
1MHz

10 MHz

100 MHz

1000 MHz

Channel Configuration

Channel = 100m max

Fixed Horizontal Cable

Outlets

NIC
Switch
or hub

Equipment
Cable

Floor Distributor

Patch
Cable

Work
Area
Cable

Consolidation
Point
CP Cable

Channel Insertion Loss & NEXT

70
60

NEXT
dB

50

Cat 7/
Class F

40
Cat 6/
Class E

Cat 5e/
new Class D

30

Old Cat 5/
old Class D

Ins Loss
dB/100m 20

Cat 3/
Class C

10
0
1 MHz

10 MHz

100 MHz

1000 MHz

Channel Return Loss

dB
-8
Cat 6/
Class E

-10
Cat 5/
old Class D
no specification!

-12

Cat 7/
Class F

Cat 5e/
new Class D

-14
-16
-18
-20
1 MHz

10 MHz

100 MHz

1000 MHz

Installation Trends

Segmentation

Outlets segmented by Category

Outlets segmented by region:

Western Europe
Eastern Europe
North America
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
Middle East

30% in 2002
42% in 2002
22% in 2002

Regional variations highlighted

Annual Shipments: BC to 2005

Western Europe
50

C at 7
C at 6
C a t 5e

40

C at 5
C at 4
C at 3

30

Source: BSRIA

Outlets
(millions)

actual
forecast
20

10

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

Initial Observations

Cat 3, Cat 4, Type 1, coax declined

after introduction of Cat 5 cabling
Operating life of structured cabling
intended to be at least 15 years
Actual life has been as low as 6 yrs
At least 90% of 1980s cabling is
forecast to be replaced by 2005;
hence precluded from this analysis

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005

Western Europe
50

C at 7
40

C at 6
C a t 5e
C at 5

30

Source: BSRIA
actual
forecast

Outlets
(millions)
20

10

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Western European Trends

Latest research points to approx 4%

deeper recession from 2001 to 2002
Approx 50% horizl cables screened
overall foil-screened cables in France
pair-screened cables in Germ/Aus/Switz

85% Cat 7 in Germany/Austria/Switz

Significant levels of Cat 7 cable used
for Class E channels (perhaps 50%)
equivalent to 18 million outlets

Fibre outlets 1.5% of total shipments

(BSRIA 2002)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005

Eastern Europe
4

Cat 7
3

Cat 6
Cat 5e
Cat 5
Source: BSRIA

Outlets 2
(millions)

actual
forecast

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005

North America
70

60

C at 7
C at 6
C a t 5e

50

C at 5
Source: BSRIA

40

Outlets
(millions)

actual
forecast

30

20

10

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

North American Trends

Marked recession from 2000 to 2001

99% horizontal cables unscreened
Early & aggressive market for Cat 6
Fibre outlets 1.0% of total shipments
(BSRIA 2002)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005

Latin America
6

C at 7
5

C at 6
C a t 5e

C at 5
Source: BSRIA

Outlets
(millions) 3

actual
forecast

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005

Asia-Pacific
40

C at 7
C at 6
30

C a t 5e
C at 5
Source: BSRIA

Outlets
(millions) 20

actual
forecast

10

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Asia-Pacific Trends

Earlier recession from 1999 to 2000

98% horizontal cables unscreened
40% outlets in China, strong growth
Fibre outlets 0.5% of total shipments
(BSRIA 2002)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005

Middle East
2

C at 7
C at 6
C a t 5e
C at 5
Source: BSRIA
Outlets
(millions) 1

actual
forecast

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005

World-wide
150
140
130

C at 7

120

C at 6

110
100

Outlets
(millions)

C a t 5e
C at 5

90

Source: BSRIA

80

actual
forecast

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Installed Base

Cumulative World-wide Shipments

1300
1200
1100
1000
900

Outlets
(millions)

C at 7
C at 6
C a t 5e
C at 5

800

Source: BSRIA

700

actual
forecast

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Installed Base Model Assumptions

40% new shipments replace existing cabling

for cabling upgrades & building refurbishment
some regional and industry sector variation
world-wide trend from 1997, in/out of recession

new shipments apportioned to Cat 5/Cat 5e:

Cat 5
Cat 5e

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

40%

40%

40%

40%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

Estimated World-wide Installed Base

(40% new shipments replaces existing cabling)
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800

Outlets
(millions)

700

C at 7
C at 6
C a t 5e
C at 5
Source:
LAN Technologies
(2003)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Estimated World-wide Installed Base

Source: LAN Technologies (2003)

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

100%

97%

89%

77%

63%

51%

41%

31%

23%

15%

Cat 5e

0%

3%

10%

20%

31%

39%

45%

50%

51%

50%

Cat 6

0%

0%

1%

3%

6%

10%

13%

19%

26%

34%

Cat 7

0%

0%

0%

0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

Cat 5

Summary

Estimated World-wide Installed Base

in Dec 2002

Note: Ignored Cat 3

(~7% installed base)
will inflate Cat 5 share

C at 5/
o ld C las s D
41%

total outlets
680 million

FTTD
0.4%

C at 5e/
n ew C las s D
45%

C at 6/C las s E
13%

Source: LAN Technologies (2003)

C at 7/C las s F
0.2%

Estimated World-wide Installed Base

in Dec 2005
Note: Ignored Cat 3
(~4% installed base)
will inflate Cat 5 share
total outlets
925 million

C at 5e/
n ew C las s D
50%

C at 5/
o ld C las s D
15%

FTTD
0.6%
C at 6/C las s E
34%
Source: LAN Technologies (2003)

C at 7/C las s F
0.4%

Estimated World-wide Installed Cabling

Growth from Jan 2003
(Based on Annual Growth Rates 2002-2005)
Source: LAN Technologies (2003)

15
+ 11%
+ 8%

10
average
% annual
change in
penetration
of world-wide
installed base

-5
- 7%
-10
Cat 5/old Class D

Cat 5e/new Class D

Cat 6/Class E

CFI

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

Lifecycles
STD
10GBASE-T

1000BASE-T

100BASE-TX

10BASE-T
Cat 7

Cat 6

Cat 5e

Cat 5

Cat 4
Cat 3

Ethernet Cabling Estimates at Birth

Source: LAN Technologies (2003)

IEEE 802.3
Ethernet Type

Number Installed Outlets

Std Approved

Cat 5

Cat 5e

Cat 6

100BASE-TX

June 1995

100m

1000BASE-T

June 1999

340m

65m

8m

Jan 2006??

136m

465m

320m

10GBASE-T

Questions?