Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 698 Ahuntsic Cartierville residents, 672 Mount Royal residents &

668 Richmond Arthabaska residents by Smart IVR on September 21, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a
mixture of landlines and cell phones. Ahuntsic Cartierville margin of error: +/- 3.7%; Mount Royal
margin of error: +/- 3.76%, Richmond Arthabaska margin of error: +/- 3.77%, 19 times out of 20.
Results were weighed by age, language & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE, MOUNT ROYAL & RICHMOND ARTHABASKA

September 23, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls finds a strong lead for
the Liberals in Mount Royal, the NDP leading in Ahunstic Cartierville and a strong lead for Conservative
candidate Alain Rayes in Richmond-Arthabaska. Ahuntsic Cartierville margin of error: +/- 3.7%; Mount
Royal margin of error: +/- 3.76%, Richmond Arthabaska margin of error: +/- 3.77%, 19 times out of 20.
AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE
This is one of Montrals most exciting races and right now it is a close race between the NDPs Maria
Mourani and the Liberals Melanie Joly said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet
Research. Each brings past political strength to the table, Mourani as the former Bloc MP and incumbent,
Joly as a former high-profile mayoral candidate. Mourani leads by 5% among all voters though that slips to
just 3% when you look at just decided and leaning voters. This is one to watch.
MOUNT ROYAL
Right now Anthony Housefather is running away with the race in Mount Royal continued Valentin. This
has long been a Liberal fortress, and Housefather is holding a 15% lead among all voters. A significant
amount of voters are leaning towards him as well (40%) - an unusually high number among undecided
voters compared to other riding polls we have done. The Conservatives best hope for a seat on the Island
of Montral looks out of reach for now.
RICHMOND ARTHABASKA
The Conservatives are running a star candidate - Alain Rayes, mayor of Victoriaville and right now the
political gamble for Rayes is paying off. His 12% lead is all the more significant when you factor in a low level
of undecided voters in the riding. Conservative numbers will need to hold up for Rayes to be successful,
but with Conservative numbers so low in the province it looks like right now most of his support comes
from his own personal personality.
Please note: Mainstreet was unable to verify a Green Party candidate at the time this survey was conducted
and the name of the 2011 Green Party candidate was substituted.
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for phone interview: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters

Moughrabi

WILLIAM MOUGHRABI (CPC)

MARIA MOURANI (NDP)
MELANIE JOLY (LPC)
NICOLAS BOURDON (BQ)
GILLES MERCIER (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
WILLIAM MOUGHRABI (CPC)
MARIA MOURANI (NDP)
MELANIE JOLY (LPC)
NICOLAS BOURDON (BQ)
GILLES MERCIER (GPC)
UNDECIDED

Mourani

3%

13%

34%

37%

13%

9%

2%

12%

30%

35%

12%

Decided & Leaning

Joly

FR
10%
35%
27%
18%
1%
9%
576

Bourdon

ENG
11%
13%
56%
0%
3%
16%
122

Mercier

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64

16%
11%
10%
44% 42%
27%
28% 19%
32%
12%
11%
12%
8%
1%
1%
9%
18%
14%
96
151
208
Certain
Likely
12%
15%
36%
17%
28%
50%
12%
9%
3%
0%
9%
9%

65+ Male Female

10% 15%
9%
17% 33% 35%
47% 30% 30%
11% 12%
11%
3% 2%
3%
9% 7%
11%
243 321
377
Might
Unlikely
24%
0%
38%
39%
27%
32%
5%
24%
0%
2%
7%
2%

A4

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

3%

19%

3%

6%

70%

Moughrabi

Mourani

Joly

Bourdon

Mercier

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
66%
28%
6%

NDP
75%
20%
6%

LPC
64%
27%
9%

BQ
68%
29%
3%

A5

MOUNT ROYAL

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters

Libman

Rimbao

ROBERT LIBMAN (CPC)

MARIO JACINTO RIMBAO (NDP)
ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER (LPC)
JADE BOSS-BLANGER (BQ)
JOHN TROMP (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ROBERT LIBMAN (CPC)
MARIO JACINTO RIMBAO (NDP)
ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER (LPC)
JADE BOSS-BLANGER (BQ)
JOHN TROMP (GPC)
UNDECIDED

2%

7%

50%

16%

27%

19%

1%

6%

39%

12%

24%

Decided & Leaning

Housefather

Boss-Blanger

Tromp

Undecided

FR ENG 18-34 35-49 50-64

31%
29%
24% 28% 12%
14% 13%
12%
21%
7%
31%
28% 44% 48% 36%
5%
7%
7%
7%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
21% 14%
21%
21% 18%
102
119
200
175 496
Certain
Likely
25%
16%
12%
19%
39%
38%
6%
5%
1%
0%
18%
21%

65+ Male Female

29% 27% 21%
9% 13%
11%
38% 35% 43%
5% 7%
5%
0% 0%
1%
19% 18%
19%
250 322 349
Might
Unlikely
35%
18%
3%
9%
37%
47%
0%
4%
0%
0%
26%
22%

A6

MOUNT ROYAL

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

5%
14%

38%

2%

Libman

Rimbao

40%

Housefather

Boss-Blanger

Tromp

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
62%
35%
3%

NDP
54%
43%
3%

LPC
64%
32%
4%

BQ
73%
26%
1%

A7

RICHMOND ARTHABASKA

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Rayes

Beaulieu

ALAIN RAYES (CPC)

MYRIAM BEAULIEU (NDP)
MARC DESMARAIS (LPC)
OLIVIER NOLIN (BQ)
TOMY BOMBARDIER (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ALAIN RAYES (CPC)
MYRIAM BEAULIEU (NDP)
MARC DESMARAIS (LPC)
OLIVIER NOLIN (BQ)
TOMY BOMBARDIER (GPC)
UNDECIDED

2%

10%

7%

35%

46%

11%

2%
9%

6%

30%

42%

Decided & Leaning

Desmarais

Noulin

Bombardier

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64

50% 43%
35%
39% 27%
26%
6%
8%
11%
6%
9%
12%
2%
3%
1%
2%
11%
18%
85
153
203
Certain
Likely
43%
36%
28%
40%
6%
4%
9%
7%
2%
4%
11%
9%

65+ Male Female

39% 46% 38%
26% 27% 32%
6% 6%
6%
8% 9%
8%
3% 2%
2%
15% 9%
14%
227 318
350
Might
Unlikely
37%
32%
39%
30%
3%
8%
6%
11%
0%
0%
16%
19%

A8

RICHMOND ARTHABASKA

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

5%

22%

7%

64%
2%

Rayes

Beaulieu

Desmarais

Noulin

Bombardier

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
71%
18%
12%

NDP
69%
18%
13%

LPC
78%
16%
6%

BQ
71%
19%
10%

A9

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
William Moughrabi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Maria Mourani of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Melanie Joly of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Nicolas Bourdon of the Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Gilles Mercier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
William Moughrabi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Maria Mourani of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Melanie Joly of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Nicolas Bourdon of the Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Gilles Mercier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

A10

MOUNT ROYAL SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Robert Libman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Mario Jacinto Rimbao of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Anthony Housefather of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Jade Boss-Blanger of the Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
John Tromp of the Green Party led Elizabeth May
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Robert Libman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Mario Jacinto Rimbao of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Anthony Housefather of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Jade Boss-Blanger of the Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
John Tromp of the Green Party led Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

A11

RICHMOND ARTHABASKA SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?
Alain Rayes of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Myriam Beaulieu of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Marc Desmarais of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Olivier Nolin of the Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Tomy Bombardier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Alain Rayes of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Myriam Beaulieu of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Marc Desmarais of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Olivier Nolin of the Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Tomy Bombardier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,
or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved