Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.99357439
Coeficiente d 0.98719007
R^2 ajustado 0.98662074
Error tpico
0.02637177
Observacione
48
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 2.41182049 1.20591024 1733.94985 2.6291E-043
Residuos
45 0.03129615 0.00069547
Total
47 2.44311664

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Coeficientes
1.84208146
0.18083943
-0.52726149

Error tpico
0.01617669
0.00518429
0.01111285

Estadstico t
113.872583
34.8821724
-47.4461143

Probabilidad
4.9912E-057
3.2042E-034
4.4862E-040

Inferior 95%
1.80949994
0.17039773
-0.54964392

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

1.87466299 1.80949994 1.87466299
0.19128114 0.17039773 0.19128114
-0.50487906 -0.54964392 -0.50487906

Lluvias mximas (mm).- Estacin Conchucos

T
P.Max
Duracin en minutos
aos
24 horas
5
10
15
20
500
58.2
6.7
10.1
12.3
143
51.3
5.8
8.6
10.6
71
47.4
5.2
7.8
9.6
35
43.4
4.7
7.0
8.6
30
42.6
4.6
6.8
8.3
10
41.4
3.7
5.5
6.8
5
33.0
3.2
4.7
5.8
2
25.2
2.5
3.7
4.5
Fuente: Elaboracin del autor aplicando el Modelo de Bell

T
aos

Intensidades mximas (mm/hora).- Estacin Conchucos

Duracin en minutos
5
10
15
20
80.9
60.5
49.3
42.2
69.2
51.8
42.2
36.1
62.7
46.9
38.2
32.7
56.1
42.0
34.2
29.3
54.7
40.9
33.4
28.5
44.5
33.3
27.1
23.2
38.0
28.4
23.2
19.8
29.5
22.1
18.0
15.4

P.Max
24 horas
500
143
71
35
30
10
5
2

58.2
51.3
47.4
43.4
42.6
41.4
33.0
25.2

Log (I) = Log (K) + m Log (T) -n Log (t)

O bien: Y = a0 + a1 X1 + a2 X2

1.84208146
0.18083943
-0.52726149

tr
5
10
30
50
100
120

5
39.8054773
27.6198498
15.4758193
11.8217385
8.20275657
7.45093203
70

NSIDADES

a0
a1
a2

14.1
12.0
10.9
9.8
9.5
7.7
6.6
5.1

60

10
45.1212299
31.3082941
17.5425104
13.4004518
9.2981793
8.44595367

k
m
n

69.51547
0.1808394
0.5272615

30
55.0380788
38.1893039
21.3980441
16.3456342
11.3417548
10.302225

50
60.3645917
41.8852145
23.4689187
17.9275432
12.4393949
11.2992608

CURVAS IDF

CURVAS IDF

INTENSIDADES

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

20

40

60

80

DURACION min

100

120

os
nutos
30

60
16.7
14.3
13.0
11.6
11.3
9.2
7.9
6.1

22.0
18.8
17.0
15.3
14.9
12.0
10.3
8.0

chucos
nutos
30
33.5
28.7
26.0
23.2
22.6
18.4
15.7
12.2

60
22.0
18.8
17.0
15.3
14.9
12.0
10.3
8.0

Y
Log (I)

1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.5

X1
Log(T)
2.69897
2.15533604
1.85125835
1.54406804
1.47712125
1
0.69897
0.30103
2.69897
2.15533604
1.85125835
1.54406804
1.47712125
1
0.69897
0.30103
2.69897
2.15533604
1.85125835
1.54406804
1.47712125
1
0.69897
0.30103
2.69897
2.15533604
1.85125835

X2
Log(t)
0.69897
0.69897
0.69897
0.69897
0.69897
0.69897
0.69897
0.69897
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.17609126
1.17609126
1.17609126
1.17609126
1.17609126
1.17609126
1.17609126
1.17609126
1.30103
1.30103
1.30103

tr-5
tr10
tr30

100

120

140

1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9

1.54406804
1.47712125
1
0.69897
0.30103
2.69897
2.15533604
1.85125835
1.54406804
1.47712125
1
0.69897
0.30103
2.69897
2.15533604
1.85125835
1.54406804
1.47712125
1
0.69897
0.30103

1.30103
1.30103
1.30103
1.30103
1.30103
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.95514367
Coeficiente d 0.91229942
R^2 ajustado 0.91130846
Error tpico
0.10422644
Observacione
180
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2
20.001568
10.000784 920.615377 2.8557E-094
Residuos
177 1.92277776 0.01086315
Total
179 21.9243458

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Coeficientes Error tpico

2.15001913
0.0246745
0.3375225 0.02096471
-0.61517574 0.01546647

Estadstico t
87.1352751
16.0995562
-39.7748041

Probabilidad
2.6783E-147
1.6694E-036
3.4589E-090

Inferior 95%
2.10132507
0.29614955
-0.64569815

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

2.1987132 2.10132507
2.1987132
0.37889546 0.29614955 0.37889546
-0.58465333 -0.64569815 -0.58465333

REGISTRO DE INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS (

ESTACIN WEBERBAWER

Altitud:

2536 m.s.n.m

Ubicacin

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Longitud:

78 30'

Latitud:

07 10'

AO

5 min.

10 min.

1973

112.8

75.15

1974

111.6

75

1975

101

73

1976

92

71.8

1977

91.49

71

1978

90

68.1

1979

89.1

66.34

1980

88.29

65.4

1981

84.6

65.08

1982

83

64.18

1983

82.2

63

1984

81.3

60.21

1985

78

60.1

1986

76

60

1987

75.3

58

1988

73.6

56.25

1989

73.02

56.07

1990

73

54.8

1991

71.11

54.4

1992

70.4

53

1993

70.08

52.8

1994

68

51

1995

68

50.4

1996

67.2

50.06

1997

65

50

1998

60

49.2

1999

59.31

47.8

2000

58

44

2001

56.07

40.4

2002

56

39

2003

42

30.7

32
33
34
35
36
Fuente:

2004

40.8

29.28

2005

38.4

28.3

2006

28.9

25.8

2007

26

24

2008

16.8

14.03

SENAMHI

Cajamarca

Log (I) = Log (K) + m Log (T) -n Log (t)

O bien: Y = a0 + a1 X1 + a2 X2

a0
a1
a2

2.15001913
0.3375225
-0.61517574

TIEMPO DE
DURACION min
5
10
30
50
100
120

5
90.3540963
58.9877045
30.0087617
21.9165458
14.3082248
12.7901422

CURV

220

INTENSIDADES

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

10

20

30

40

50

DUR

40
20
0

10

20

30

40

50

DUR

TENSIDADES MAXIMAS (mm/h)

CIN WEBERBAWER

Depart:

Cajamarca

Provincia:

Cajamarca

Distrito:

Cajamarca

30 min.

60 min.

120 min.

T.R

45.05

27.1

19

41

26.03

14.02

40.6

26

14

38

23.71

14

37.94

23.1

13.99

37.2

23.03

13.5

37

23

13.27

37

23

13.02

36.22

21.08

12.91

35.04

21

12.01

35.04

19.04

12

34

19

11.12

33.8

18.02

11

32.44

18

11

37.00
18.50
12.33
9.25
7.40
6.17
5.29
4.63
4.11
3.70
3.36
3.08
2.85
2.64
2.47
2.31
2.18
2.06
1.95
1.85
1.76
1.68
1.61
1.54
1.48
1.42
1.37
1.32
1.28
1.23
1.19

31.4

18

10

30.11

17.88

10

30.03

17.86

9.8

29.2

16.72

9.6

29.13

16

9.4

28.66

16

9.32

28

15.63

9.28

28

15.6

27.6

15.54

8.94

25.56

14.7

8.23

24

14.6

8.05

24

14

7.95

23

13.79

7.85

22

13.2

7.6

21.6

12.9

6.55

21

12

6.3

19

10.57

6.02

1.16
1.12
1.09
1.06
1.03

17.24

10.49

6.01

15.7

10

14.5

9.4

13.5

8.4

4.6

9.4

6.34

3.71

k
m
n

141.25998
0.3375225
0.6151757

RETORNO
30
165.421291
107.99535
54.9403768
40.1250573
26.1956582
23.4163356

50
196.548779
128.316942
65.2785621
47.6754291
31.1249212
27.8226107

TIEMPO DE
10
114.170064
74.5359677
37.9186156
27.6934144
18.0796556
16.1614295

CURVAS IDF

TR-5
AOS
TR-10
AOS

30

40

50

60

70

DURACION min

80

90

100

110

120

130

30

40

50

60

70

DURACION min

80

90

100

110

120

130

Y
Log (I)
1.87592898
1.87506126
1.86332286
1.85612444
1.85125835
1.83314711
1.82177547
1.81557775
1.81344754
1.80739971
1.79934055
1.77966863
1.77887447
1.77815125
1.76342799
1.75012253
1.74873056
1.73878056
1.7355989
1.72427587
1.72263392
1.70757018
1.70243054
1.69949085
1.69897
1.6919651
1.6794279
1.64345268
1.60638137
1.59106461
1.48713838

1.46657107
1.45178644
1.41161971
1.38021124
1.14705767
1.6536948
1.61278386
1.60852603
1.5797836
1.57909733
1.57054294
1.56820172
1.56820172
1.55894845
1.5445641
1.5445641
1.53147892
1.5289167
1.51108085
1.49692965
1.47871076
1.47755533
1.46538285
1.46434048
1.45727619
1.44715803
1.44715803
1.44090908
1.40756085
1.38021124
1.38021124
1.36172784
1.34242268
1.33445375
1.32221929
1.2787536
1.23653726
1.19589965
1.161368
1.13033377
0.97312785
1.43296929
1.41547417
1.41497335
1.37493155

1.36361198
1.36229394
1.36172784
1.36172784
1.32387061
1.32221929
1.27966694
1.2787536
1.25575479
1.25527251
1.25527251
1.25236751
1.25188145
1.22323627
1.20411998
1.20411998
1.19395898
1.1931246
1.19145101
1.16731733
1.16435286
1.14612804
1.13956427
1.12057393
1.11058971
1.07918125
1.02407499
1.02077549
1
0.97312785
0.92427929
0.80208926
1.2787536
1.14674801
1.14612804
1.14612804
1.14581771
1.13033377
1.12287092
1.11461098
1.11092624
1.07954301
1.07918125
1.04610479
1.04139269

1.04139269
1
1
0.99122608
0.98227123
0.97312785
0.96941591
0.96754798
0.95424251
0.95133752
0.91539984
0.90579588
0.90036713
0.89486966
0.88081359
0.8162413
0.79934055
0.77959649
0.77887447
0.77815125
0.69897
0.66275783
0.56937391
2.0523091
2.04766419
2.00432137
1.96378783
1.96137363
1.95424251
1.9498777
1.94591152
1.92737036
1.91907809
1.91487182
1.91009055
1.8920946
1.88081359
1.87679498
1.86687781
1.86344183
1.86332286
1.85193068
1.84757266
1.84559409
1.83250891

1.83250891
1.82736927
1.81291336
1.77815125
1.77312792
1.76342799
1.74873056
1.74818803
1.62324929
1.61066016
1.58433122
1.46089784
1.41497335
1.22530928

X1
Log(T)
1.56820172
1.26717173
1.09108047
0.96614173
0.86923172
0.79005047
0.72310368
0.66511174
0.61395921
0.56820172
0.52680904
0.48902048
0.45425837
0.42207369
0.39211047
0.36408174
0.3377528
0.31292922
0.28944812
0.26717173
0.24598243
0.22577904
0.20647389
0.18799048
0.17026172
0.15322838
0.13683796
0.12104369
0.10580373
0.09108047
0.07684003

X2
Log(t)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

0.06305175
0.04968778
0.03672281
0.02413368
0.01189922

1
1
1
1
1

1.56820172
1.26717173
1.09108047
0.96614173
0.86923172
0.79005047
0.72310368
0.66511174
0.61395921
0.56820172
0.52680904
0.48902048
0.45425837
0.42207369
0.39211047
0.36408174
0.3377528
0.31292922
0.28944812
0.26717173
0.24598243
0.22577904
0.20647389
0.18799048
0.17026172
0.15322838
0.13683796
0.12104369
0.10580373
0.09108047
0.07684003
0.06305175
0.04968778
0.03672281
0.02413368
0.01189922
1.56820172
1.26717173
1.09108047
0.96614173

1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125

0.86923172
0.79005047
0.72310368
0.66511174
0.61395921
0.56820172
0.52680904
0.48902048
0.45425837
0.42207369
0.39211047
0.36408174
0.3377528
0.31292922
0.28944812
0.26717173
0.24598243
0.22577904
0.20647389
0.18799048
0.17026172
0.15322838
0.13683796
0.12104369
0.10580373
0.09108047
0.07684003
0.06305175
0.04968778
0.03672281
0.02413368
0.01189922
1.56820172
1.26717173
1.09108047
0.96614173
0.86923172
0.79005047
0.72310368
0.66511174
0.61395921
0.56820172
0.52680904
0.48902048
0.45425837

1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
1.77815125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125

0.42207369
0.39211047
0.36408174
0.3377528
0.31292922
0.28944812
0.26717173
0.24598243
0.22577904
0.20647389
0.18799048
0.17026172
0.15322838
0.13683796
0.12104369
0.10580373
0.09108047
0.07684003
0.06305175
0.04968778
0.03672281
0.02413368
0.01189922
1.56820172
1.26717173
1.09108047
0.96614173
0.86923172
0.79005047
0.72310368
0.66511174
0.61395921
0.56820172
0.52680904
0.48902048
0.45425837
0.42207369
0.39211047
0.36408174
0.3377528
0.31292922
0.28944812
0.26717173
0.24598243
0.22577904

2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
2.07918125
0.69897
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