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KEY WORDS
gestational age, developmental outcomes, risk factors, school
performance, reading achievement
ABBREVIATIONS
BOEBoard of Education
CTBCalifornia Testing Bureau
DOHMHDepartment of Health and Mental Hygiene
NYCNew York City
www.pediatrics.org/cgi/doi/10.1542/peds.2011-2157
doi:10.1542/peds.2011-2157
Accepted for publication Mar 27, 2012
Address correspondence to Kimberly Noble, MD, PhD, Assistant
Professor of Pediatrics, Columbia University, 630 W. 168th St, P&S
Box 16, New York, NY 10033. E-mail: kgn2106@columbia.edu
PEDIATRICS (ISSN Numbers: Print, 0031-4005; Online, 1098-4275).
Copyright 2012 by the American Academy of Pediatrics
FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE: The authors have indicated they have
no nancial relationships relevant to this article to disclose.
FUNDING: Funding for this research was provided by the John
M. Driscoll, MD Scholars Program (K.G.N.), NIH grant
P01ES009600 (H.F.A. and V.A.R.), ACYF Head Start Bureau grant 90YD-0023 (H.F.A. and V.A.R.) and NIH grant R37 HD032773 (W.P.F.).
Funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
abstract
OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to examine the degree to which
children born within the normal term range of 37 to 41 weeks
gestation vary in terms of school achievement.
METHODS: This study analyzed data from 128 050 singleton births born
between 37 and 41 weeks gestation in a large US city. Data were
extracted from city birth records to assess a number of obstetric,
social, and economic variables, at both the individual and community
levels. Birth data were then matched with public school records of
standardized city-wide third-grade reading and math tests. Specically,
we assessed (1) whether children born within the normal term range of
37 to 41 weeks gestation show differences in reading and/or math
ability 8 years later as a function of gestational age, and (2) the
degree to which a wide range of individual- and community-level
social and biological factors mediate this effect.
RESULTS: Analyses revealed that gestational age within the normal
term range was signicantly and positively related to reading and math
scores in third grade, with achievement scores for children born at 37
and 38 weeks signicantly lower than those for children born at 39, 40,
or 41 weeks. This effect was independent of birth weight, as well as
a number of other obstetric, social, and economic factors.
CONCLUSIONS: Earlier normal term birth may be a characteristic considered by researchers, clinicians, and parents to help identify children who may be at risk for poorer school performance. Pediatrics
2012;130:18
The developmental risks of early preterm birth are well established. Recently it has been recognized that even
late preterm infants, born from 34 to 36
weeks gestation, are at risk for adverse developmental outcomes.19 Less
clear, however, is the degree to which
developmental risk varies with gestational age among infants born at
term, between 37 and 41 weeks gestation. Brain development continues
throughout gestation, including rapid
growth in the nal month of pregnancy.10,11 Yet children born from 37 to
41 weeks gestation are frequently combined into a single reference group in
studies investigating cognitive outcomes.1,36,8,9,1214 It is unclear whether
this cut point of 37 weeks is appropriate,12 and the degree of heterogeneity
in academic achievement across this
5-week period of normal gestation remains largely uninvestigated.
This study uses a retrospective cohort
design to examine a large sample of
urban American children born across
the range of term gestation, to investigate whether earlier gestational age
at birth confers a continuum of risk for
poor academic achievement. Access to
a large data set linking comprehensive
birth records to school records affords
the unique opportunity to explore a wide
range of individual- and community-level
social and biological factors that may
mediate this effect.
Specication of Variables
METHODS
Population
The study sample consists of all singleton births born to mothers residing
in New York City (NYC) from 1988 to 1992
who (1) were between 37 and 41 weeks
gestation, (2) subsequently enrolled in
third grade in NYC public schools from
1996 to 2000, and (3) for whom thirdgrade standardized reading or math
test scores were available. Birth records
from the NYC Department of Health and
Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) were matched
2
NOBLE et al
ARTICLE
Data Analysis
We rst assessed whether, within the
normal term gestational range, there
existed a signicant relation between
weeks of gestation at birth and thirdgrade reading and/or math scores.
Relative risk of reading and math deficits were then calculated for infants
born at each gestational week relative
to the reference of 41 weeks. Next, as
the relationship between gestational
age and school achievement scores
may be confounded by birth weight, the
models were expanded to include birth
weight. Last, we examined the effects of
all individual, community, and obstetric
characteristics described previously.
RESULTS
Table 1 describes the sample with respect to all obstetric, individual, and
community-level factors. These summary statistics reect the striking diversity of the NYC population, with a
high proportion of mothers in various
risk groups.
Reading and math scores were, unsurprisingly, highly correlated (R = 0.694;
P , .001). Initial analyses consisted of 2
one-way analyses of variance, examining the effect of gestational week at
birth on third-grade reading and math
scores, respectively. Gestational age
within the normal term range was signicantly and positively related to both
third-grade reading score (F [4, 128 045] =
21.635; P , 7.2 3 10218) and thirdgrade math score (F [4, 127 527] =
27.904; P , 3.4 3 10223), with scores
improving with each week of gestation,
as shown in Figs 1 and 2. Table 2 shows
that both reading and math scores for
children born at 37 and 38 weeks were
signicantly lower than those of children born at any other week, adjusting
for multiple comparisons by using the
Bonferroni method. Differences among
children born at 39, 40, or 41 weeks
gestation were not signicant (although
in all cases, the nonsignicant trend was
Obstetric factors
Gestational wk
37
38
39
40
41
Birth weight, g
Cesarean delivery
Parity
Low or no prenatal care
Advanced maternal age ($35 y)
Individual-level factors
Child gender
Male
Female
Race/Ethnicity
White non-Hispanic
African American non-Hispanic
Asian
Hispanic
Maternal education, y
Medicaid
Teenage mother
Mother unmarried
Mother foreign-born
Maternal substance use during pregnancy (including alcohol)
Maternal smoking during pregnancy
Community-level factors (mean % of community population)
Percent below poverty level
Percent recent immigrants (within previous 5 y)
Percent living in crowded housing units
Percent living in same house $5 y before census
Homicide rate (per 10 000 residents)
39.25 (1.2)
12 184/9.52
23 365/18.25
35 197/27.49
35 213/27.50
22 091/17.25
3328 (485)
19 624/15.3
1.94 (1.2)
30 982/24.2
14 711/11.5
61 775/48.2
66 275/51.8
34 950/27.3
42 875/33.5
11 847/9.3
38 378/30.0
12.0 (2.4)
48 113/37.6
14 409/11.3
53 991/42.2
62 845/49.1
3295/2.6
6723/5.3
22.7 (13.8)
6.0 (3.8)
17.2 (8.4)
58.5 (5.8)
1.4 (1.2)
Means and SDs are shown for continuous variables. Counts and percentages are shown for dichotomous variables. Mean
percentages are shown for community-level variables.
DISCUSSION
FIGURE 1
Gestational week at birth was signicantly and positively associated with reading score: (F [4, 128 045] =
21.635; P , 7.2 3 1018). Error bars represent 61 SE.
FIGURE 2
Gestational week at birth was signicantly and positively associated with math score: (F [4, 127 527] =
27.904; P , 3.4 3 1023). Error bars represent 61 SE.
respectively, the obstetric, individuallevel, and community-level characteristics described previously. Most of
these variables were highly signicant predictors of third-grade reading
and math scores. Table 5 shows that
gestational age at birth continues to
NOBLE et al
ARTICLE
Week
Comparison (J)
37
38
39
40
Reading Scores
Math Scores
Mean Difference
(I 2 J)
SE
Mean Difference
(I 2 J)
SE
20.358
20.636
20.775
20.820
20.278
20.417
20.462
20.137
20.184
20.045
0.107
0.101
0.101
0.109
0.081
0.081
0.090
0.072
0.082
0.082
.001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
.001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
.055
.025
.582
20.445
20.732
20.822
20.871
20.287
20.377
20.426
20.090
20.139
20.049
0.097
0.092
0.092
0.098
0.073
0.073
0.082
0.066
0.075
0.075
,.0001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
,.0001b
.17
.063
.513
38
39
40
41
39
40
41
40
41
41
Children born at 37 and 38 weeks gestation score signicantly lower on reading and math achievement tests than children
born at every other week.
a a set at 0.0025 to control for multiple comparisons (eg, 0.05/20).
b Signicant when using Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons.
Not Impaired,
n (%)
Relative Risk
Mildly Poor
Reading (95% CI)
At Least Moderately
Poor Reading, n (%)
Relative Risk
Moderately Poor
Reading (95% CI)
Severely Poor
Reading, n (%)
Relative Risk
Severely Poor
Reading (95% CI)
37 (n = 12 184)
38 (n = 23 365)
39 (n = 35 197)
40 (n = 35 213)
41 (n = 22 091)
10 749 (88.2)
20 740 (88.8)
31 507 (89.5)
31 535 (89.6)
19 800 (89.6)
1436 (11.8)
2625 (11.2)
3690 (10.5)
3678 (10.4)
2291 (10.4)
1.14 (1.071.21)
1.08 (1.031.14)
1.011 (0.961.06)
1.007 (0.961.06)
n/a
660 (5.4)
1169 (5.0)
1647 (5.2)
1577 (4.5)
979 (4.4)
1.23(1.121.35)
1.13 (1.041.23)
1.05 (0.981.14)
1.01 (0.941.09)
n/a
283(2.3)
457 (2.0)
658 (2.1)
641 (1.8)
390 (1.8)
1.33 (1.141.54)
1.12 (0.981.28)
1.06 (0.931.20)
1.03 (0.911.17)
n/a
Relative risk of mild, moderate, and severe reading impairment for children born from 37 to 40 weeks gestation, relative to the reference group of 41 weeks gestation. Children born at 37 wk
are at increased risk for all levels of impairment. Children born at 38 wk are at increased risk for mild and moderate impairment. Mildly poor reading, Moderately poor reading, and
Severely poor reading are dened as scoring at least 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 SDs below population average, respectively. Not impaired is dened as performance better than the mildly impaired
group. CI, condence interval.
37 (n = 12 119)
38 (n = 23 273)
39 (n = 35 074)
40 (n = 35 075)
41 (n = 21 991)
At Least Mildly
Poor Math, n (%)
Relative Risk
Mildly Poor
Math (95% CI)
At Least Moderately
Poor Math, n (%)
Relative Risk
Moderately Poor
Math (95% CI)
Severely Poor
Math, n (%)
Relative Risk
Severely Poor
Math (95% CI)
11 311 (93.3)
21 782 (93.6)
32 999 (94.1)
33 031 (94.2)
20 729 (94.3)
808 (6.7)
1491 (6.4)
2075 (5.9)
2044 (5.8)
1262 (5.7)
1.16 (1.071.27)
1.12 (1.041.20)
1.03 (0.961.10)
1.02 (0.951.09)
n/a
287 (2.4)
520 (2.2)
758 (2.2)
708 (2.0)
443 (2.0)
1.19 (1.021.38)
1.11 (0.981.27)
1.07 (0.951.21)
1.00 (0.891.13)
n/a
130 (1.1)
242 (1.0)
349 (1.0)
308 (0.9)
200 (0.9)
1.19 (0.951.49)
1.15 (0.951.39)
1.10 (0.921.31)
0.97 (0.811.16)
n/a
Relative risk of mild, moderate and severe math impairment for children born from 37 to 40 weeks gestation, relative to the reference group of 41 weeks gestation. Children born at 37 wk are
at increased risk for mild to moderate math impairment. Children born at 38 wk are at increased risk for mild math impairment. Mildly poor math, Moderately poor math, and Severely
poor math are dened as scoring at least 1, 1.5, or 2 SDs below population average, respectively. Not impaired is dened as performance better than the mildly impaired group. CI,
condence interval.
TABLE 5 Models of Effects of Gestational Age on School Achievement, Controlling for Obstetric, Individual-Level, and Community-Level Characteristics
Model 1: Obstetric-level characteristics
Birth weight
Cesarean delivery
Parity
Low or no prenatal care
Advanced maternal age
Gestational wk
Model 2: Individual-level characteristics
Child gender (male)
Race/Ethnicity:
Black Non-Hispanic
Asian
Hispanic
Maternal education
Medicaid
Teenage mother
Mother unmarried
Mother foreign-born
Maternal substance use during pregnancy (including alcohol)
Maternal smoking during pregnancy
Gestational wk
Model 3: Community-level characteristics
Neighborhood poverty, %
Neighborhood foreign born, %
Neighborhood housing crowding, %
Neighborhood housing stability, %
Neighborhood homicide rate (per 10 000 residents)
Gestational wk
34 150
5215
208 107
73 186
115 623
204
65 439
4009
156 073
70 518
84 422
208
451.757
34.027
1343.239
539.022
737.990
2.916
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
.020
79 714
4674
1256.990
,.0001
239 432
240
188 223
452 097
25 579
357
39 845
2281
0
3102
116
309 123
60 305
180 582
329 967
13 291
1248
38 738
363
17
2664
169
2553.988
784.791
1612.586
3338.661
168.999
10.578
344.306
44.988
0.288
24.864
2.734
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
.749
,.0001
.027
108 295
6105
39 341
156
39 070
841
64 987
34 422
50 371
2196
61 566
830
679.034
287.809
376.147
39.765
448.677
0.016
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
,.0001
Three multivariate general linear models were constructed including both math and reading scores as dependent variables. Independent variables included obstetric characteristics in model
1; individual-level characteristics in model 2; and community-level characteristics in model 3. Most of these characteristics were highly signicant predictors of third-grade school
achievement. In each case, after adjusting for these potential mediators, gestational age at birth signicantly predicted achievement test scores. Signicance levels of multivariate tests
are reported by using Roys Largest Root. Follow-up univariate tests revealed that, when controlling for other obstetric factors, gestational week was a signicant predictor of math (F = 2.870;
P , .022) but not reading (F = 2.310; P , .055). Similar univariate results were found when controlling for individual-level characteristics (math: F = 2.715; P , .028); reading: F = 1.468; P ,
.209). When controlling for community-level characteristics, univariate tests showed that gestational week was a signicant predictor of both math (F = 12.052; P , .0001) and reading (F =
9.891; P , .0001).
This study has several limitations. Notably, although gestational age from 37
to 41 weeks showed a graded relationship with third-grade reading and
math scores, the effect size was small.
Many other social, economic, and obstetric factors predict academic achievement in elementary school; however, the
6
NOBLE et al
ARTICLE
CONCLUSIONS
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NOBLE et al
Citations
Reprints
The online version of this article, along with updated information and services, is
located on the World Wide Web at:
http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2012/06/27/peds.2011-2157