Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction - Global Issues

10/11/2015
ClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroductionGlobalIssues
GlobalIssues http://www.globalissues.org
Social,Political,EconomicandEnvironmentalIssuesThatAffectUsAll
ClimateChangeandGlobalWarming
Introduction
byAnupShah ThisPageLastUpdatedSunday,February01,2015
Thispage:http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climatechangeandglobal
warmingintroduction.
Toprintallinformatione.g.expandedsidenotes,showsalternativelinks,usetheprint
version:
http://www.globalissues.org/print/article/233
Thiswebpagehasthefollowingsubsections:
1. WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?
1. WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?
2. WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?
3. TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?
4. Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?
5. DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?
6. Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?
7. Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans
8. 2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan
2. WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?
1. Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature
2. Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact
3. ExtremeWeatherPatterns
1. Superstorms
2. Extremeweathereventsontheincrease
4. EcosystemImpacts
5. RisingSeaLevels
6. Increasingoceanacidification
7. IncreaseinPestsandDisease
8. FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger
9. Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected
http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climatechangeandglobalwarmingintroduction
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10. Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts
3. Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivity
1. DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld
2. TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapita
3. Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter
4. StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia
5. CanadapullsoutofKyoto
6. Richnationemissionshavebeenrising
7. RichNationsHave"Outsourced"TheirCarbonEmissions
8. DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost
9. Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise
4. SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehumaninduced
1. BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists
5. ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered
6. Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted
WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?
Globalwarmingandclimatechangerefertoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.Naturaleventsand
humanactivitiesarebelievedtobecontributingtoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.Thisiscaused
primarilybyincreasesingreenhousegasessuchasCarbonDioxide(CO2 ).
Awarmingplanetthusleadstoachangeinclimatewhichcanaffectweatherinvariousways,asdiscussed
furtherbelow.
WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?
AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thereare7
indicatorsthatwouldbeexpectedtoincreaseinawarmingworld(andtheyare),and3indicatorswouldbe
expectedtodecrease(andtheyare):
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Tenindicatorsforawarmingworld,PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingto
Scientistsin48Countries,NOAA,July28,2010
WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?
Thetermgreenhouseisusedinconjunctionwiththephenomenonknownasthegreenhouseeffect.
Energyfromthesundrivestheearthsweatherandclimate,andheatstheearthssurface
Inturn,theearthradiatesenergybackintospace
Someatmosphericgases(watervapor,carbondioxide,andothergases)trapsomeoftheoutgoing
energy,retainingheatsomewhatliketheglasspanelsofagreenhouse
Thesegasesarethereforeknownasgreenhousegases
ThegreenhouseeffectistheriseintemperatureonEarthascertaingasesintheatmospheretrap
energy.
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Imagesource:GreenhouseEffect,Wikipedia
(Linkincludesdetailedexplanationoftheaboveimage).Note,imageaboveexpressesenergyexchangesinwatts
2
persquaremeter(W/m )
Sixmaingreenhousegasesarecarbondioxide(CO2 ),methane(CH4)(whichis20timesaspotenta
greenhousegasascarbondioxide)andnitrousoxide(N2 O),plusthreefluorinatedindustrialgases:
hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs)andsulphurhexafluoride(SF6).Watervaporisalso
consideredagreenhousegas.
TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?
Manyofthesegreenhousegasesareactuallylifeenabling,forwithoutthem,heatwouldescapebackinto
spaceandtheEarthsaveragetemperaturewouldbealotcolder.
However,ifthegreenhouseeffectbecomesstronger,thenmoreheatgetstrappedthanneeded,andtheEarth
mightbecomelesshabitableforhumans,plantsandanimals.
Carbondioxide,thoughnotthemostpotentofgreenhousegases,isthemostsignificantone.Humanactivity
hascausedanimbalanceinthenaturalcycleofthegreenhouseeffectandrelatedprocesses.NASAsEarth
Observatoryisworthquotingtheeffecthumanactivityishavingonthenaturalcarboncycle,forexample:
InadditiontothenaturalfluxesofcarbonthroughtheEarthsystem,anthropogenic(human)
activities,particularlyfossilfuelburninganddeforestation,arealsoreleasingcarbondioxide
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intotheatmosphere.
WhenweminecoalandextractoilfromtheEarthscrust,andthenburnthesefossilfuelsfor
transportation,heating,cooking,electricity,andmanufacturing,weareeffectivelymoving
carbonmorerapidlyintotheatmospherethanisbeingremovednaturallythroughthe
sedimentationofcarbon,ultimatelycausingatmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsto
increase.
Also,byclearingforeststosupportagriculture,wearetransferringcarbonfromlivingbiomass
intotheatmosphere(drywoodisabout50percentcarbon).
Theresultisthathumansareaddingeverincreasingamountsofextracarbondioxideintothe
atmosphere.Becauseofthis,atmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsarehighertodaythan
theyhavebeenoverthelasthalfmillionyearsorlonger.
TheCarbonCycleTheHumanRole,EarthObservatory,NASA
Anotherwayoflookingatthisiswithasimpleanalogy:considersaltandhumanhealth:
Asmallamountofsaltisessentialforhumanlife
Slightlymoresaltinourdietoftenmakesfoodtastier
Toomuchsaltcanbeharmfultoourhealth.
Inasimilarway,greenhousegasesareessentialforourplanettheplanetmaybeabletodealwithslightly
increasedlevelsofsuchgases,buttoomuchwillaffectthehealthofthewholeplanet.
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Imagesource:NASA.
(Note,valuesshownrepresentCarbonGigatonsbeingabsorbedandreleased)
Theotherdifferencebetweenthenaturalcarboncycleandhumaninducedclimatechangeisthatthelatteris
rapid.Thismeansthatecosystemshavelesschanceofadaptingtothechangesthatwillresultandsothe
effectsfeltwillbeworseandmoredramaticitthingscontinuealongthecurrenttrajectory.
Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?
ThroughoutEarthshistorytheclimatehasvaried,sometimesconsiderably.Pastwarmingdoesnot
automaticallymeanthattodayswarmingisthereforealsonatural.Recentwarminghasbeenshowntobedue
tohumanindustrializationprocesses.
JohnCook,writingthepopularSkepticalScienceblog,summarizesthekeyindicatorsofahumanfingerprint
onclimatechange:
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JohnCook,10IndicatorsofaHumanFingerprintonClimateChange,SkepticalScience,
July30,2010
Thisgraph,basedonthecomparisonofatmosphericsamplescontainedinicecoresandmorerecentdirect
measurements,providesevidencethatatmosphericCO2 hasincreasedsincetheIndustrialRevolution:
(Source:NOAA)via:ClimateChange:Howdoweknow?NASA,accessedOctober27,2009
TheabovecovershundredsofthousandsofyearsandshowshowatmosphericCO2 levelshavedramatically
increasedinrecentyears.Ifwezoominonjustthepast250years,weseethefollowing:
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GlobalCO2emissions,17512010,CarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter(CDIAC),2013,lastaccessed
February1,2015.DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013
NASAsGoddardInstituteofSpaceStudies(GISS)tracksatmosphericglobaltemperatureclimatetrends.As
environmentalengineer,DKellyODay,explainedonProcessingTrends.com(linknolongeravailable):To
facilitateassessmentsoflongtermtrends,climatologistscomparethemeanforabaseperiodwiththeannual
mean.Differencesbetweentheannualmeanandbaselinemeanarecalledanomalies.GISSusesthe1951
1980periodfortheirbaselineperiod.Theyusethedifferencebetweentheannualmeanandthebaseline
meantodeterminetheglobaltemperatureanomalyfortheyear.
ODayoriginallyproducedachartshowingglobaltemperatureanomaliesbetween1800and2006usingdata
fromNASA.Iupdatedthechartheprovidedtoincluderecentlyupdateddataupto2014:
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Sources:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASA,accessedJanuary25,2015Globaltemperature,18002006,
ProcessTrends.com,accessedOctober27,2009(linknolongeravailable)
Inthe18801935period,thetemperatureanomalywasconsistentlynegative.Incontrast,thesince1980the
anomalyhasbeenconsistentlypositive.The1909temperatureanomaly(0.47oC)wasthelowestyearon
record.Since1909,globaltemperaturehaswarmed,withthemostrecentyearsshowingthehighest
anomaliesof+0.6oCinthepast120years.
ANASAsGISSanimationalsoshowshowmostpartsoftheworldhaveexperiencedthiswarming,recently:
0:30
Video:Globaltemperatureshavewarmedsignificantlysince1880,the
beginningofwhatscientistscallthemodernrecord.Atthistime,thecoverage
providedbyweatherstationsallowedforessentiallyglobaltemperaturedata.
Asgreenhousegasemissionsfromenergyproduction,industryandvehicles
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haveincreased,temperatureshaveclimbed,mostnotablysincethelate1970s.
Source:NASAFinds2014WarmestYearinModernRecord,NASAGoddard
InstituteforSpaceStudies,January16,2015
And,asSirDavidAttenboroughexplains,naturalvariabilityalonedoesnotexplainrecenttemperaturerise:
Video:SirDavidAttenborough:TheTruthAboutClimateChange,
Sir David Attenborough: The Truth A...

October22,2006
Aswellasthelinksabove,seealsoSkepticalScience,which,whileexaminingtheargumentsofglobalwarming
skepticism,providesinformationoncausesofanthropogenicglobalwarming.
DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?
Indifferentpartsoftheworld,therehavebeenvariousweathereventsthatatfirstthoughtwouldquestion
globalwarming.Forexample,someregionshaveexperiencedextremelycoldwinters(sometimesrecord
breaking),whileothershaveexperiencedheavyrain,etc.
Theconfusionthatsometimesarisesisthedifferencebetweenclimatechangeandweatherpatterns.Weather
patternsdescribeshorttermevents,whileclimatechangeisalongerprocessthataffectstheweather.A
warmingplanetisactuallyconsistentwithincreasingcold,increasingrainandotherextremes,asanoverall
warmerplanetchangesweatherpatternseverywhereatalltimesoftheyear.
Togetanideaofhowlookingatshorttermchangesonlycanleadtoaconclusionthatglobalwarminghas
stopped,ordoesntexist,seeAldenGriffithshasglobalwarmingstopped?
(Asanaside,thosecryingfoulofglobalwarmingclaimswhengoingthroughextremelycoldweatherinEurope
forexamplein2010,laterfoundtheirsummerstobefullofheatwaves.Thepointhereisthataspecificshort
periodsuchasacoldwinterorevenahotsummerisnotproofalonethatglobalwarminghasstopped(or
increased)shorttermvariabilitycanmasklongertermtrends.)
Thismeans,forexample,increasingtemperaturescanactuallymeanmoresnowfallatleastuntilitbecomes
toowarmforsignificantsnowfalltohappen.
Theadditionalconcern,asmeteorologyprofessorScottMandiaexplains,itcantakedecadesfortheclimate
temperaturestoincreaseinresponsetoincreasedgreenhousegasemissions.Soupuntilnow,perhapsithas
beeneasierforskepticstodenyclimatechangeisoccurringorthathumansareresponsible.
Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?
AstheIPCCsfifthmajorreportdrawstoaconclusionin2013itnotesthatscientistshaveincreasedtheir
certaintyofhumaninducedwarmingto95%.Itwasextremelylikelythathumaninfluencehasbeenthe
dominantcauseoftheobservedwarmingsincethemid20thcentury,assummarized
bytheIPCC.
Astheirfifthreportstartedtocomeout,anumberofclimateskepticsandmediaoutletswerearguingthatthe
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slowdownshowninsurfacetemperaturesinrecentyearsprovedglobalwarminghadstoppedorpaused.Yet,
thisslowdownwasinsurfacetemperaturesonlyeventhoughtheoveralltrend(usingamorelongerperiod
whichismorevalidinclimatechangeanalysis)showedanincreaseintemperatures.Twosimplegraphshelp
illustratethis:
Source:ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis,IPCCWorkingGroupI
contributiontotheIPCCFifthAssessmentReport,September2013.Chapter3.[Note,
graphmodifiedtoaddthezoomedinportionhighlightingtheareaskepticsusetoclaim
climatechangehasstopped.]
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ThenextgraphisananimationfromSkepticalScienceshowinghowtimeframestointerpretclimatedatais
significant:
Source:TheEscalator,SkepticalScience,lastaccessedOctober19,2013
ForfurtherinformationontheaboveseealsoDoestheglobalwarmingpausemeanwhatyouthinkit
means?,fromSkepticalScience.
Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans
Asthisinfographicshows,mostofthewarmingisgoingintotheoceans:
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Source:JohnCook,Infographiconwhereglobalwarmingisgoing,SkepticalScience.com,
January20,2011(furthernotesonthesourcedataused)
AsJohnCook,creatorofthegraphicabovesays(seeabovelink),Justasittakestimeforacupofcoffeeto
releaseheatintotheair,sotoittakestimefortheoceantoreleaseitsheatintotheatmosphere..
TheimplicationsofthisisfurtherexplainedwithInterPressServicesfreezeranalogy:Theworldsnorthern
freezerisonrapiddefrostaslargevolumesofwarmwaterarepouringintotheArcticOcean,speedingthe
meltofseaice.
Indeed,asthischartalsoshows,thewarmingintheoceanshasbeenoccurringforquitesometime:
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Source:JohnCook,TheEarthcontinuestobuildupheat,SkepticalScience,October
12,2011
OneofJohnBrunoscolleagues,OveHoeghGuldberg,talksabouttheimpactclimatechangewillhaveon
oceanecosystems.Asummaryofthevideoheresaysthat
Rapidlyrisinggreenhousegasconcentrationsare
Video:OveHoeghGuldbergNCSEtalkonclimate
drivingoceansystemstowardconditionsnotseenfor
millionsofyears,withanassociatedriskoffundamental
andirreversibleecologicaltransformation.Changesin
OveHoegh
GuldbergNCSE
Shifts,January21,2011.
talk
changeimpactsonoceanecosystems,Climate
fromJohnBruno
biologicalfunctionintheoceancausedbyanthropogenicclimatechangegofarbeyonddeath,extinctionsand
habitatloss:fundamentalprocessesarebeingaltered,communityassemblagesarebeingreorganizedand
ecologicalsurprisesarelikely.
D.SalmonsalsohasapostatSkepticalSciencethatexplainstheimpactofwarmingArcticsrelationtothevery
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coldrecentwintersfurther,usingthefollowingNASAmap:
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Source:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,
accessedJanuary30,2011
AsSalmonsexplains,
theArctichasbeenheatingup,andstudiesshowthatishappeningattwotothreetimesthe
globalaverage.ThisrisingtemperatureintheArctichasservedtoreducetheregionsfloating
icelayerbymorethan20%.Andasyouwouldexpect,whenthereflectiveiceandsnowlayeris
strippedaway,itleavesadarkbluesea.
Now,whatdoestheeffectofthedarkblueseabeingexposedhaveontheArcticarea?Well,the
iceandsnowlayerreflectsthemajorityofthesunsraysharmlesslybackintospace.Butthe
darkblueoftheexposedseaabsorbstherays,aidingtheheatingprocess.
D.Salmons,GlobalWarmingandColdWinters,SkepticalScience,January15,2011
2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan
NASAsGISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysisgraphshownearlier(from1800to2014)showsthattemperature
anomaliessince1980haveallbeenpositivei.e.ithasbeenconstantlyhotterthannormal.
Asthesamedatashows,thehottestyearshaveallbeensince1998:
Rank
1=Warmest
Year
AnomalyC
AnomalyF
18802014
1
2014
0.69
1.24
2(tie)
2010
0.65
1.17
2(tie)
2005
0.65
1.17
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2(tie)
2005
0.65
1.17
1998
0.63
1.13
5(tie)
2013
0.62
1.12
5(tie)
2003
0.62
1.12
2002
0.61
1.10
2006
0.60
1.08
9(tie)
2009
0.59
1.06
9(tie)
2007
0.59
1.06
Source:NOAANationalClimaticDataCenter,StateoftheClimate:GlobalAnalysisforAnnual2014,
publishedonlineDecember2014,retrievedonJanuary25,2015
WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?
Fordecades,greenhousegases,suchascarbondioxidehavebeenincreasingintheatmosphere.Butwhydoes
thatmatter?Wontwarmerweatherbenicerforeveryone?
Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature
IncreasedgreenhousegasesandthegreenhouseeffecthascontributedtoanoverallwarmingoftheEarths
climate,leadingtoaglobalwarming(eventhoughsomeregionsmayexperiencecooling,orwetterweather,
whilethetemperatureoftheplanetonaveragewouldrise).
Consideralsothefollowing:
WhileyeartoyearchangesintemperatureoftenreflectnaturalclimaticvariationssuchasEl
Nio/LaNiaevents,changesinaveragetemperaturefromdecadetodecadereveallong
termtrendssuchasglobalwarming.Eachofthelastthreedecadeshasbeenmuchwarmer
thanthedecadebefore.Atthetime,the1980swasthehottestdecadeonrecord.Inthe1990s,
everyyearwaswarmerthantheaverageofthepreviousdecade.The2000swerewarmerstill.
PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NationalOceanandAtmospheric
Administration(NOAA),July28,2010
Attheendofthe1990s,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)hadnotedthatnotonlywasthe
1990sthewarmestdecadebutatthetime,the1900swasthewarmestcenturyduringthelast1,000years.
Itistherapidpaceatwhichthetemperaturewillrisethatwillresultinmanynegativeimpactstohumansand
theenvironmentandthiswhythereissuchaworldwideconcern.
Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact
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Climatescientistsadmitthatthechancesoftheworldkeepingaverageglobaltemperatureatcurrentlevelsare
notgoingtobepossible(humanityhasdonelittletoaddressthingsinthepastcoupleofdecadesthatthese
concernshavebeenknownabout).
So,now,thereisapushtocontaintemperaturerisestoanaverage2Cincrease(asanaverage,thismeans
someregionsmaygethighertemperaturesandothers,lower).
Evenjusta2Cincreasecanhaveimpactsaroundtheworldtobiodiversity,agriculture,theoceansetc
(detailedfurtherbelow).Butintheleaduptoimportantglobalclimatetalksattheendof2009,some
delegatesareskepticalthattemperaturerisescanbecontainedtoa2Crise(orC02 levelsof350ppm).
OnOctober22,2009,theBritishGovernmentandtheUKsMetOffice(UKsNationalWeatherService)
unveiledanewmap,showingwhatwouldhappenifweallowedaverageglobaltemperaturestoincreaseto4C
abovepreindustriallevels(thehighendoftheUNIPCCprojections):
Video:Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,
2009(Seelargermap)
Inshort,wewouldnotbeabletocopewitha4Caverageincrease.
AstheMetOfficenoted,
Thepostershowsthatafourdegreeaveragerisewillnotbespreaduniformlyacrosstheglobe.
Thelandwillheatupmorequicklythanthesea,andhighlatitudes,particularlytheArctic,will
havelargertemperatureincreases.Theaveragelandtemperaturewillbe5.5degreesabove
preindustriallevels.
Theimpactsonhumanactivityshownonthemapareonlyaselection.
Agriculturalyieldsareexpectedtodecreaseforallmajorcerealcropsinallmajorregionsof
production.HalfofallHimalayanglacierswillbesignificantlyreducedby2050,leadingto
23%ofthepopulationofChinabeingdeprivedofthevitaldryseasonglacialmeltwater
source.
Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,2009
SideNote
ExtremeWeatherPatterns
Mostscientistsbelievethatthewarmingoftheclimatewillleadtomoreextremeweather
patternssuchas:
Morehurricanesanddrought
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Longerspellsofdryheatorintenserain(dependingonwhereyouareintheworld)
ScientistshavepointedoutthatNorthernEuropecouldbeseverelyaffectedwithcolderweatherif
climatechangecontinues,asthearcticbeginstomeltandsendfresherwatersfurthersouth.Itwould
effectivelycutofftheGulfStreamthatbringswarmthfromtheGulfofMexico,keepingcountriessuch
asBritainwarmerthanexpected
InSouthAsia,theHimalayanglacierscouldretreatcausingwaterscarcityinthelongrun.
Whilemanyenvironmentalgroupshavebeenwarningaboutextremeweatherconditionsforafewyears,the
WorldMeteorologicalOrganizationannouncedinJuly2003thatRecentscientificassessmentsindicatethat,
astheglobaltemperaturescontinuetowarmduetoclimatechange,thenumberandintensityofextreme
eventsmightincrease.
TheWMOalsonotesthatNewrecordextremeeventsoccureveryyearsomewhereintheglobe,butinrecent
yearsthenumberofsuchextremeshavebeenincreasing.(TheWMOlimitsthedefinitionofextremeevents
tohightemperatures,lowtemperaturesandhighrainfallamountsanddroughts.)TheU.KsIndependent
newspaperdescribedtheWMOsannouncementasunprecedentedandastonishingbecauseitcamefroma
respectedUnitedNationsorganizationnotanenvironmentalgroup!
Superstorms
Mentionedfurtherabovewastheconcernthatmorehurricanescouldresult.Thelinkusedwasfromthe
environmentalorganizationWWF,writtenbackin1999.InAugust/September2004awaveofsevere
hurricanesleftmanyCaribbeanislandsandpartsofSouthEasternUnitedStatesdevastated.IntheCaribbean
manyliveswerelostandtherewasimmensedamagetoentirecities.IntheU.S.manyliveswerelostaswell,
someofthemostexpensivedamageresultedfromthesuccessivehurricanes.
Initswake,scientistshavereiteratedthatsuchsuperstormsmaybeasignofthingstocome.Globalwarming
mayspawnmoresuperstorms,InterPressService(IPS)notes.
InterviewingabiologicaloceanographyprofessoratHarvardUniversity,IPSnotesthattheworldsoceansare
approaching27degreesCorwarmerduringthesummer.Thisincreasestheoddsofmajorstorms.
Whenwaterreachessuchtemperatures,moreofitevaporates,priminghurricaneorcycloneformation.
Onceborn,ahurricaneneedsonlywarmwatertobuildandmaintainitsstrengthandintensity.
Furthermore,asemissionsofgreenhousegasescontinuetotrapmoreandmoreofthesunsenergy,that
energyhastobedissipated,resultinginstrongerstorms,moreintenseprecipitationandhigherwinds.
Thereisabundantevidenceofanunprecedentednumberofsevereweathereventsinthepast
decade,[professorofbiologicaloceanographyatHarvardUniversity,James]McCarthysays.
In1998,HurricaneMitchkillednearly20,000peopleinCentralAmerica,andmorethan
4,000peoplediedduringdisastrousfloodinginChina.Bangladeshsufferedsomeofitsworst
floodseverthefollowingyear,asdidVenezuela.Europewashitwithrecordfloodsin2002,
andthenarecordheatwavein2003.
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Morerecently,BrazilwasstruckbythefirsteverrecordedhurricaneintheSouthAtlanticlast
March.
Weatherrecordsarebeingsetallthetimenow.Wereinaneraofunprecedentedextreme
weatherevents,McCarthysaid.
Historicalweatherpatternsarebecominglessusefulforpredictingthefutureconditions
becauseglobalwarmingischangingoceanandatmosphericconditions.
In30to50yearstime,theEarthsweathergeneratingsystemwillbeentirelydifferent,he
predicted.
StephenLeahy,GlobalWarmingMaySpawnMoreSuperStorms,InterPressService,September20,
2004
Extremeweathereventsontheincrease
Lookingat2010asawholeyearrevealedavarietyofextremeweatherevents.Apanelofclimateandweather
expertsrankedthetop10globalweather/climateeventsof2010whichincludedheatwavestodroughtsto
negativearcticoscillation(aclimatepatternwherecoldArcticairslidessouthwhilewarmerairmovesnorth,
bringingsnowstormsandrecordcoldtemperaturestomuchoftheNorthernHemisphere)showthatavariety
ofweathereventscanoccurasaresultofchangingclimate:
TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010
Rank
Event
When
Russo
1
European
AsianHeat
Aseveresummerspawneddrought,wildfiresandcropfailuresacross
Summer
Waves
westernRussia,wheremorethan15,000peopledied.Alltimehigh
temperaturesoccurredinmanycitiesandnationsintheregion.Chinafaced
locustswarmsduringJuly.
2010as
[near]
Description
Occurred
Calendar
warmeston Year
record
AccordingtoNOAA,thegloballyaveragedtemperaturefor2010willfinish
amongthetwowarmest,andlikelythewarmest,onrecord.Threemonths
in2010werethewarmestonrecordforthatmonth.
RainfallrelatedtotheAsianMonsoonwasdisplacedunusuallywestward,
Pakistani
LateJuly
andmorethanafootofrainfellacrossalargeareaoftheUpperIndus
Flooding
intoAugust Valley.SubsequentfloodingdowntheIndusRiverkilled1,600peopleand
displacedmillions.
ElNioto
Midto
LaNia
LateBoreal sawahugeswinginmid2010.Only1973,1983and1998haveseenlarger
Transition
Spring
Negative
ENSO,themostprominentandfarreachingpatternsofclimatevariability,
withinyearswings.
TheAOIndex,whichisstronglycorrelatedwithwintertimecoldair
December outbreaks,reached4.27forFebruary,thelargestnegativeanomalysince
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December outbreaks,reached4.27forFebruary,thelargestnegativeanomalysince
Arctic
February
Oscillation
recordsbeganin1950.Majorcoldairoutbreaksoccurredthroughoutthe
NorthernHemisphere.
AseveredroughtparchingnorthernBrazilshrunktheRioNegro,oneofthe
Brazilian
Drought
Ongoing
AmazonRiver'smostimportanttributaries,toitslowestlevelsincerecords
beganin1902atitsconfluencewiththeAmazon.TheAmazon'sdepththere
fellmorethan12feetbelowitsaverage.
Historically
th
InactiveNE May15
7tie Pacific
Hurricane
TheNortheastPacificHurricaneSeasonwasoneoftheleastactiveon
November record,producedthefewestnamedstormsandhurricanesofthemodern
30th
era,andhadtheearliestcessationoftropicalactivity(Sep23)onrecord.
Season
HistoricN.
7tie
Hemispheric
Snow
Retreat
Minimum
SeaIce
Extent
10
DespiteDecember2009havingthesecondlargestsnowcoverextentofthe
January
satelliterecord(mid1960s),themeltseasonwasferocious,contributingto
through
springfloodsintheNorthernU.S.andCanada.Followingtheearlyand
June
pronouncedsnowmelt,theNorthAmerican,EurasianandHemispheric
snowcoverwasthesmallestonrecordforMayandJune2010.
The2010seaiceminimumof4.9millionsqkmwasthethirdsmalleston
Mid
record.Thelastfouryears(20072010)arethefoursmallestonrecord.
September TheNorthwestPassageandtheNorthernSeaRouteweresimultaneously
icefreeinSeptember,afirstinmodernhistory.
China
Firsthalfof
Drought
2010
ApersistentdroughtcenteredintheYunanProvincewastoutedasperhaps
theworstinthisregioninmorethan100years.Majorcroplossesandlack
ofdrinkingwatercreatedsevereproblemsforlocalresidents.
Source:TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010NationalClimaticDataCenter,NOAA,December
2010
TheselistswerecompiledandvotedonduringthefirstweekofDecember.Significantevents,suchasthe
extremewinterweatherinEuropeandthefloodinginAustraliaoccurredafterthisdate.Theseeventshave
beenincludedinanadditionalsectiontitled,HonorableMention,butmayhavewarrantedtopten
placement.
EcosystemImpacts
Withglobalwarmingontheincreaseandspecieshabitatsonthedecrease,thechancesforvariousecosystems
toadaptnaturallyarediminishing.
Manystudieshavepointedoutthattheratesofextinctionofanimalandplantspecies,andthetemperature
changesaroundtheworldsincetheindustrialrevolution,havebeensignificantlydifferenttonormal
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expectations.
Ananalysisofpopulationtrends,climatechange,increasingpollutionandemergingdiseasesfoundthat40
percentofdeathsintheworldcouldbeattributedtoenvironmentalfactors.
JaanSuurkula,M.D.andchairmanofPhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceand
Technology(PSRAST),paintsadirepicture,butnotesthatheisonlycitingobservationsandconclusionsfrom
establishedexpertsandinstitutions.Thoseobservationsandconclusionsnotethatglobalwarmingwillleadto
thefollowingsituations,amongstothers:
RapidglobalheatingaccordingtoaUSNationalAcademyofSciencewarning
Dramaticincreaseingreenhousegasemissions
Ozonelossaggravatedbyglobalwarming
Ozonelosslikelytoaggravateglobalwarming
Warmingoftheoceansleadstoincreasedgreenhousegasses
Permafrostthawingwillaggravateglobalwarming
Oceanicchangesobservedthatmayaggravatethesituation
Aviciouscirclewherebyeachproblemwillexacerbateotherproblemswhichwillfeedbackintoeach
other
Massiveextinctionofspecieswillaggravatetheenvironmentalcrisis
Suddencollapseofbiologicalandecologicalsystemsmayoccur,butwillhaveaveryslowrecovery
WhileeffectivemeasurescandecreaseglobalwarmingandotherproblemstheWorldcommunityhas
repeatedlyfailedtoestablishcooperation.
TheviciouscircleSuurkulareferstoisworthexpanding.Inhisownwords,butslightlyreformatted:
Theongoingaccumulationofgreenhousegassescausesincreasingglobalwarming.
Thiscausesamoreextensivedestructionofozoneinthepolarregionsbecauseof
accentuatedstratosphericcooling.
AnincreaseofozonedestructionincreasestheUVradiationthat,combinedwith
higheroceantemperature,causesareductionofthegiganticcarbondioxide
trappingmechanismoftheoceanicphytoplanktonbiomass
Thisaccentuatesthewarmingprocess.
Whenthewarminghasreachedacertainlevel,itwillreleasehugeamountsof
greenhousegassestrappedinthepermafrost.
Thiswillenhancetheglobalwarming,andthepolardestructionofozone,andso
on.
Theobserveddecreaseofthethermohalinecirculation[thevariousstreamsthat
transportwarmandcoldwatersaroundtheworldandthereforehasanimportant
stabilizingeffectonworldclimate]furtheraggravatesthesituation.
Thisisaglobalselfreinforcingviciouscircleacceleratingtheglobalwarming.
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JaanSuurkula,WorldwidecooperationrequiredtopreventglobalcrisisPartonetheproblem,
PhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology,February6,2004
RisingSeaLevels
Waterexpandswhenheated,andsealevelsareexpectedtoriseduetoclimatechange.Risingsealevelswill
alsoresultasthepolarcapsbegintomelt.
Risingsealevelsisalreadyaffectingmanysmallislands.
TheWorldWatchInstitutereportsthat[t]heEarthsicecoverismeltinginmoreplacesandathigherrates
thanatanytimesincerecordkeepingbegan.(March6,2000).
Risingsealevelswillimpactmanycoastlines,andalargemassofhumanitylivesnearthecoastsorbymajor
rivers.AnalysisbytheWorldWildlifeFundhasfoundthatmanycitiesareunpreparedforclimatechange
effectssuchasrisingsealevels.
Increasingoceanacidification
OceanAcidificationconsumptionofcarbonateionsimpedecalcification.Source:Pacific
MarineEnvironmentLaboratory,NOAA
Althoughithasgainedlessmainstreammediaattention,theeffectsofincreasinggreenhouseemissionsin
particularcarbondioxideontheoceansmaywellbesignificant.
AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thebasic
chemistryofoceanacidificationiswellunderstood.
Thesearethe3mainconcepts:
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1. MoreCO2 intheatmospheremeansmoreCO2 intheocean

2. AtmosphericCO2 isdissolvedintheocean,whichbecomes
moreacidicand
Video:NOAAOceanAcidification
NOAA Ocean ...
Demonstration,NationalOceanicand
AtmosphericAdministration,February
26,2010
3. Theresultingchangesinthechemistryoftheoceansdisrupts
theabilityofplantsandanimalsintheseatomakeshellsand
skeletonsofcalciumcarbonate,whiledissolvingshellsalreadyformed.
Scientistshavefoundthatoceansareabletoabsorbsomeofthe
Video:Shortoverviewofocean
Ocean Acidifi...
excessCO2 releasedbyhumanactivity.Thishashelpedkeepthe
acidification:OceanAcidification,ABC
planetcoolerthanitotherwisecouldhavebeenhadthesegases
WorldNewsWebcast,June7,2008
remainedintheatmosphere.
However,theadditionalexcessCO2 beingabsorbedisalsoresultingintheacidificationoftheoceans:When
CO2 reactswithwateritproducesaweakacidcalledcarbonicacid,changingtheseawaterchemistry.Asthe
GlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportexplains,thewaterissome30%moreacidicthanpreindustrialtimes,
depletingcarbonateionsthebuildingblocksformanymarineorganisms.
Inaddition,concentrationsofcarbonateionsarenowlowerthanatanytimeduringthelast800,000years.
Theimpactsonoceanbiologicaldiversityandecosystemfunctioningwilllikelybesevere,thoughtheprecise
timinganddistributionoftheseimpactsareuncertain.(Seep.58ofthereport.)
AlthoughmillionsofyearsagoCO2 levelswerehigher,todayschangeisoccurringrapidly,givingmany
marineorganismstoolittletimetoadapt.Somemarinecreaturesaregrowingthinnershellsorskeletons,for
example.Someofthesecreaturesplayacrucialroleinthefoodchain,andinecosystembiodiversity.
Somespeciesmaybenefitfromtheextracarbondioxide,andafew
yearsagoscientistsandorganizations,suchastheEuropean
ProjectonOCeanAcidification,formedtotrytounderstandand
Video:Clayanimationbyschool
children:TheotherCO2problem,March
23,2009(commissionedbyEPOCA)
assesstheimpactsfurther.
Oneexampleofrecentfindingsisatinysandgrainsizedplanktonresponsibleforthesequestrationof25
50%ofthecarbontheoceansabsorbisaffectedbyincreasingoceanacidification.Thistinyplanktonplaysa
majorroleinkeepingatmosphericcarbondioxide(CO2)concentrationsatmuchlowerlevelsthantheywould
beotherwisesolargeeffectsonthemcouldbequiteserious.
OtherrelatedproblemsreportedbytheInterPressServiceincludemoreoceanicdeadzones(areaswhere
thereistoolittleoxygenintheseatosupportlife)andthedeclineofimportantcoastalplantsandforests,
suchasmangroveforeststhatplayanimportantroleincarbonabsorption.Thisisontopofthealready
decliningoceanbiodiversitythathasbeenhappeningforafewdecades,now.
Scientistsnowbelievethatoceanacidificationisunparalleledinthelast300millionyears,raisingthe
possibilitythatweareenteringanunknownterritoryofmarineecosystemchange.
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IncreaseinPestsandDisease
Anincreaseinpestsanddiseaseisalsofeared.
AreportinthejournalScienceinJune2002describedthealarmingincreaseintheoutbreaksandepidemics
ofdiseasesthroughoutthelandandoceanbasedwildlifeduetoclimatechanges.
Oneoftheauthorspointsoutthat,Climatechangeisdisruptingnaturalecosystemsinawaythatismaking
lifebetterforinfectiousdiseases.
FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger
TheGuardiansummarizesaUnitedNationswarningthat,Oneinsixcountriesintheworldfacefood
shortagesthisyearbecauseofseveredroughtsthatcouldbecomesemipermanentunderclimatechange.
Droughtanddesertificationarestartingtospreadandintensifyinsomepartsoftheworldalready.
Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected
Failingagricultureinthefuturehavelongbeenpredicted.
Lookingto2100,scientistswholookedatprojectionsofglobal
warmingsimpactontheaveragetemperaturesduringthegrowing
Video:FoodandGlobalWarming,
Food and Gl...
ScienCentral,January7,2009
seasonfearthatrisingtemperatureswillhaveasignificantimpact
uponcropyields,mostnoticeablyinthetropicsandsubtropics.
Whilewarmweathercanoftenbegoodforsomecrops,hotterthanaveragetemperaturesfortheentire
seasonisoftennotgoodforplants.
Thiswouldaffectatleasthalftheworldspopulationthateitherliveintheregionorrelyonfoodcomingfrom
thatregion.
IRIN(IntegratedRegionalInformationNetworks),partoftheUnitedNations,hasproducedaseriesofshort
videosshowinghowsomeregionsarealreadybeingaffectedbyclimatechangeandaretryingtoadaptasa
result:
Changingcrops
Meltingglaciers
Worseningfloods
Creepingdeserts
OneexampleisfarmersinNepalfindingthatcultivatingriceisntasproductiveasbefore,andarechangingto
othercropsasaresult:
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Video:SwappingCropsClimateChange,IRIN,June28,2009
The Gathering Storm - Swapping Crops
IntheHimalayas,meltingglaciersmeanslesswaterforlocalvillages:
Video:MeltingGlaciersClimateChange,IRIN,June25,2009
The Gathering Storm - Melting Glaciers
(SouthAsiaingeneralisalsoseriouslyaffectedbyrapidlyretreatingHimalayanglacierswhichfeedthemighty
riversthathavecreatedthevariousSouthAsiancivilizations.)
InMozambique,rainsarebecomingheavierandcausingfloods,whichaffectcropsandpeopleslivelihoodsas
theyaredisplacedandhavetochangetheirwayoflifequickly.
Video:FloodingRiversinMozambique,IRIN,January21,2009
The Gathering Storm - Flooding Rivers in Mozambique

Itisfearedthatglobally,therewillbemassmigrationsinthefutureasclimatechangemakesconditionsworse
insomeregionsoftheworld,andthesechallengeswillplayitselfoutonamuchlargerscale,withmuchmore
humanmovement.(AndifWesternattitudestowardsimmigrationarenegativenow,theycouldbeevenworse
inthefuture.)
InMauritania,bycontrast,thereistheproblemofincreasingdesertification,creepingeverclosertopeople
whohavehadtochangetheirwayoflife,focusingmoreonsearchingforwater.
Video:CreepingDesertsinMauritania,IRIN,January21,2009
The Gathering Storm - Creeping Deserts in Mauritania
Insomecases,improvedagriculturaltechniquesmayhelp,suchasrainwaterharvestinganddripirrigation.
Somealsobelievegeneticallymodifiedcropsmaybeessentialtodealwithchangingclimates.Yet,thereare
manyothercrucialissuesthataffectagriculture,suchaspoverty,politicalandeconomiccausesofworld
hunger,globaltradepolicies(whichcreateunequaltradeandaffectthepoorestcountriesthemost),etc.
SeeIRINsvideosonclimatechangeimpactsinAfricaandAsiaformoreshortclips.
Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts
Itisrecognizedthatpoorernationswillsuffertheworstfromclimatechange,eitherbecauseofgeographical
reasons,and/orbecausetheywillhavelessresourcestocopewithaproblem(mostlycausedbyemissions
fromrichcountriesoverthepastdecades).
Inadditiontopoorcountries,womenarelikelytosuffertheworst,astheUnitedNationsPopulationfund
explains:
Womenparticularlythoseinpoorcountrieswillbeaffecteddifferentlythanmen.Theyare
amongthemostvulnerabletoclimatechange,partlybecauseinmanycountriestheymakeup
thelargershareoftheagriculturalworkforceandpartlybecausetheytendtohaveaccessto
fewerincomeearningopportunities.Womenmanagehouseholdsandcareforfamily
members,whichoftenlimitstheirmobilityandincreasestheirvulnerabilitytosudden
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weatherrelatednaturaldisasters.Droughtanderraticrainfallforcewomentoworkharderto
securefood,waterandenergyfortheirhomes.Girlsdropoutofschooltohelptheirmothers
withthesetasks.Thiscycleofdeprivation,povertyandinequalityunderminesthesocial
capitalneededtodealeffectivelywithclimatechange.
Facingachangingworld:women,populationandclimate
,StateoftheWorldsPopulation2009,
UNFPA,November18,2009,p.4
TheUNFPAalsocapturesthisinsomevideosthataccompaniedtheir2009report.
Thefirstoneisthe
abovedescribedeffects
occurringinruralareas
ofBolivia.Thesecond
Video:WomenandClimateChangein
Video:WomenandClimateChangein
Vietnam,UNFPA,November2009
Bolivia,UNFPA,November2009
oneisontheimpacton
womeninVietnam.
Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhuman
activity
Everyfewyears,leadingclimatescientistsattheUNsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
havereleasedmajor,definitivereportsdetailingtheprogressinunderstandingclimatechange.Fromthe
outsettheyhaverecommendedthattherebeemissionreductions.Thisbodyiscomprisedofhundredsof
climatescientistsaroundtheworld.
AtthebeginningofJanuary2007,theIPCCsfourthmajorreportsummarizedthattheywereevenmore
certainthanbeforeofhumaninducedclimatechangebecauseofbetterscientificunderstanding:
Globalatmosphericconcentrationsofcarbondioxide,methaneandnitrousoxidehave
increasedmarkedlyasaresultofhumanactivitiessince1750andnowfarexceedpreindustrial
valuesdeterminedfromicecoresspanningmanythousandsofyears.Theglobalincreasesin
carbondioxideconcentrationaredueprimarilytofossilfueluseandlandusechange,while
thoseofmethaneandnitrousoxideareprimarilyduetoagriculture.
Theunderstandingofanthropogenicwarmingandcoolinginfluencesonclimatehas
improvedsincetheThirdAssessmentReport(TAR),leadingtoveryhighconfidencethatthe
globallyaveragedneteffectofhumanactivitiessince1750hasbeenoneofwarming.
Mostoftheobservedincreaseingloballyaveragedtemperaturessincethemid20thcenturyis
verylikelyduetotheobservedincreaseinanthropogenicgreenhousegasconcentrations.
ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasisSummaryforPolicymakers
,IPCC,February5th,
2007[emphasisisoriginal]
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Theirdefinitionofveryhighconfidenceandverylikelyisa90%chanceofbeingcorrect.(Their2001
reportclaimeda66%certainty.)
Thisreportwasproducedbysome600authorsfrom40countries.Over620expertreviewersandalarge
numberofgovernmentreviewersalsoparticipated,accordingtotheIPCCsmediaadvisory.
AsInterPressServicenotes,althoughtheIPCChasbecomethegoldstandardforglobalscientific
collaboration,theirreportsareinherentlyconservative:
TheIPCCoperatesundertheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO)andtheUnited
NationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)anddoesnotfundanyresearchitself.Itcollects,
evaluatesandsynthesisesscientificdata.AnyU.N.countrycanbeamemberoftheIPCCand
canchallengethefindingsinitsreports.Andconsensusisrequiredforeverywordinthe
SummaryforPolicyMakerssectionincludedineachreport.
Itsaninherentlyconservativeprocess,withoilrichcountrieslikeKuwaitandSaudiArabia
alwaystryingtotonedowntheconclusionsandemphasiseuncertaintiesandunknowns,said
Weaver.
StephenLeahy,EndlessSummerNotAsNiceAsItSounds,InterPressService,January25,2007
DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld
AstheWorldResourcesInstitutehighlightsthereisahugecontrastbetweendeveloped/industrializednations
andpoorerdevelopingcountriesingreenhouseemissions,aswellasthereasonsforthoseemissions.For
example:
Intermsofhistoricalemissions,industrializedcountriesaccountforroughly80%ofthe
carbondioxidebuildupintheatmospheretodate.Since1950,theU.S.hasemitteda
cumulativetotalofroughly50.7billiontonsofcarbon,whileChina(4.6timesmorepopulous)and
India(3.5timesmorepopulous)haveemittedonly15.7and4.2billiontonsrespectively(althoughtheir
numberswillrise).
Annually,morethan60percentofglobalindustrialcarbondioxideemissionsoriginate
inindustrializedcountries,whereonlyabout20percentoftheworldspopulationresides.
Muchofthegrowthinemissionsindevelopingcountriesresultsfromtheprovisionofbasichuman
needsforgrowingpopulations,whileemissionsinindustrializedcountriescontributetogrowthin
astandardoflivingthatisalreadyfarabovethatoftheaveragepersonworldwide.Thisisexemplified
bythelargecontrastsinpercapitacarbonsemissionsbetweenindustrializedanddevelopingcountries.
PercapitaemissionsofcarbonintheU.S.areover20timeshigherthanIndia,12timeshigherthan
BrazilandseventimeshigherthanChina.
Atthe1997KyotoConference,industrializedcountrieswerecommittedtoanoverallreductionofemissions
ofgreenhousegasesto5.2%below1990levelsfortheperiod20082012.(TheIntergovernmentalPanelon
ClimateChange(IPCC)saidinits1990reportthata60%reductioninemissionswasneeded)
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TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversity(TEEB)isanorganizationbackedbytheUNandvarious
Europeangovernmentsattemptingtocompile,buildandmakeacompellingeconomicscaseforthe
conservationofecosystemsandbiodiversity.
InareporttitledTheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicy
Makers2009,TEEBnoteddifferenttypesofcarbonemissionsascolorsofcarbon:
Browncarbon
Industrialemissionsofgreenhousegasesthataffecttheclimate.
Greencarbon
Carbonstoredinterrestrialecosystemse.g.plantbiomass,soils,wetlandsandpastureandincreasingly
recognizedasakeyitemfornegotiationintheUNFCCC.
Bluecarbon
Carbonboundintheworldsoceans.Anestimated55%ofallcarboninlivingorganismsisstoredin
mangroves,marshes,seagrasses,coralreefsandmacroalgae.
Blackcarbon
Formedthroughincompletecombustionoffuelsandmaybesignificantlyreducedifcleanburning
technologiesareemployed.
Butamitigationapproachneedstoconsideralltheseformsofcarbontheynote,notjustoneortwo:
Pastmitigationeffortsconcentratedonbrowncarbon,sometimesleadingtolandconversion
forbiofuelproductionwhichinadvertentlyincreasedemissionsfromgreencarbon.Byhalting
thelossofgreenandbluecarbon,theworldcouldmitigateasmuchas25%oftotalgreenhouse
gas(GHG)emissionswithcobenefitsforbiodiversity,foodsecurityandlivelihoods(IPCC
2007,Nellemannetal.2009).Thiswillonlybepossibleifmitigationeffortsaccommodateall
fourcarboncolors.
TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009
p.18
TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPer
Capita
Around2007,ChinasurpassedtheUSastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegasesintermsoftotal
output.Perperson(percapita),however,Chinasemissionsaremuchsmaller.
Untilrecently,theUnitedStateswastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases.However,itremainsthe
largestemitterwhenmeasuredintermsofemissionsperperson.
Duetoitsmuchlongerperiodofindustrialization,theUShasemittedfarmoreintotheatmospherethan
China(greenhousegasessuchasCO2 lingeronintheatmospherefordecades).
Inaddition,theUS:
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Accountsforroughlyfourpercentoftheworldspopulation
Accountsforapproximately20%ofglobalemissionsandsome40%ofindustrializedcountry
emissions
Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter
Thepreviously15membernationsEuropeanUnion(E.U.),ifconsideredasawhole(foritismore
comparabletotheU.S.):
Accountsforroughly3percentoftheworldspopulation
Accountsforaround10%ofglobalemissionsand24%ofindustrializedcountriesmanmadeemissions
ofthesixmaingases
Recentyearshaveseenareductioninemissionsfromthoseinitial15memberstates.However,
Itisnotnearthelevelrequired
Forthesecondconsecutiveyear,in2003,emissionsfromEUcountrieshaveactuallyincreased
slightly(thoughstillremainingslightlylowerthan1990levels).
StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia
TheKyotoProtocolwastheclimatechangetreatynegotiatedin1997,settingtargetsforemissionsof
greenhousegases.
Inordertobebindingunderinternationallaw,thetreatywouldneedratificationfromthecountries
responsibleforaround55%oftheglobalgreenhousegasemissionsof1990.
TheU.S.beingtheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases,pulledoutin2001,leavingtreatyratification
dependentonRussia,responsiblefor17%ofworldemissions.Russiahastocutemissionlevelsfromthe
Sovietdays,andtheiremissionsinthepastdecadehasbeenfarless,soitshouldnotposeasmuchofa
problemtoreducesuchemissions.
Notingtheabove,theBBCcommentedonthisaddingthatKyotowasonlyeverafirststepnowdiscussions
onthenext,morestringent,targetongreenhousegasemissionscanbegin.
CanadapullsoutofKyoto
OnDecember132011,CanadapulledoutoftheKyotoclimatetreatywhichitislegallyallowedtodoto
condemnationdomesticallyandinternationally.Oneofthemainconcernshadbeenthecosttothetaxpayer:
(CAN)$14bn.
Yet,theeconomiccostsofinactionareinthetrillions:
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Economicstudieshaveconsistentlyshownthatmitigation(suchasputtingapriceon
carbonemissions)isseveraltimeslesscostlythantryingtoadapttoclimatechange.
Theabovechartshowstotalcostsforactiononclimatechangeby2100tobeabout$11
trillionwhiledamageswillbeabout$8trillion.Withinaction,however,damagesby
2100willbearound$20trillion.By2200,thesenumbersshootup(over$30trillionif
actiontaken,orover$70ifnoactiontaken).Source:Theeconomicimpactsofcarbon
pricing,SkepticalScience.com,March1,2012
(SomebelieveoneofCanadasmotivationstoleaveKyotowasonitsdesiretoprotectthelucrativebuthighly
pollutingexploitationoftarsands,thesecondbiggestoilreserveintheworld,asTheGuardianhadnoted.)
Richnationemissionshavebeenrising
TheUNFCCCreported(November17,2008)thatalthoughindustrializednationshavereducedemissions
between1990and2006,inrecentyears,between2000and2006,greenhousegasemissionshavegenerally
increasedby2.3%
SideNote
Thisisdespiteanoveralldecreaseof4.7%since1990.However,themorerecentperiodsuggeststherich
countryemissionreductionsarenotsustainable.Furthermore,itlooksworseconsideringalargepartofthis
decreaseisbecauseofthecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Astransitioneconomiesstartedtorecoveraround
2000,emissionshavestartedtorise.
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Somenationswithlargereductionsarealsoseeinglimits,forexample:
UK(15.1%reduction)benefitedbyswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgasbutthatswitchislargelyinplace
now.
Germany(18.2%reduction)hascertainlyinvestedingreenhousegasemissionreductions,buthasbeen
helpedinlargepartbecauseofreunification(EastGermany,likemuchofeasternEuropeandformer
Sovietstateshadeconomicproblems,hencelessemissionsatthetime).
OtherreductionshavecomeinpartfromrelocatingmanufacturingtootherplacessuchasChina,which
nowclaimsatleastonethirdofitsemissionsarebecauseofproductionforothers.
(SeealsothisClimateChangePerformanceIndexfromGermanWatchandClimateActionNetworkEurope,
whichattemptstorankover57nationsthataccountfor90%oftheworldstotalgreenhousegasemissions,
includingindustrializednationsandemergingeconomies.)
RichNationsHaveOutsourcedTheirCarbonEmissions
Globaltradeisanimportantfeatureofthemodernworld.Theproductionandglobaldistributionof
manufacturedproductsthusformalargeportionofglobalhumancarbonemissions.
TheKyotoProtocolassignscarbonemissionstocountriesbasedonwhereproductiontakesplaceratherthan
wherethingsareconsumed.
Formanyyears,criticsoftheKyotoProtocolhavelongarguedthatthismeansrichcountries,whohave
outsourcedmuchoftheirmanufacturingtodevelopingnationshaveanaccountingtricktheycanusetoshow
moreemissionsreductionthandevelopingnations.
TheBBCnotedbackin2005thatthisoutsourcingwasalreadytakingplace,butthisideastartedwaybefore
theKyotoProtocolcameintobeing.
In1991LarrySummers,thenChiefEconomistfortheWorldBank(andUSTreasurySecretary,intheClinton
Administration,untilGeorgeBushandtheRepublicanpartycameintopower),hadbeenastrongbackerof
structuraladjustmentpolicies.Hewroteinaninternalmemo:
Justbetweenyouandme,shouldnttheWorldBankbeencouragingmoremigrationofdirty
industriestotheLDCs[lessdevelopedcountries]?Theeconomiclogicbehinddumpinga
loadoftoxicwasteinthelowestwagecountryisimpeccable,andweshouldfaceuptothat
UnderpopulatedcountriesinAfricaarevastlyunderpollutedtheirairqualityisprobably
vastlyinefficientlylowcomparedtoLosAngelesorMexicoCityTheconcernoveranagent
thatcausesaoneinamillionchangeintheoddsofprostatecancerisobviouslygoingtobe
muchhigherinacountrywherepeoplesurvivetogetprostatecancerthaninacountrywhere
underfivemortalityis200perthousand.
LawrenceSummers,Letthemeatpollution,TheEconomist,February8,1992.QuotedfromVandana
Shiva,StolenHarvest,(SouthEndPress,2000)p.65SeealsoRichardRobbins,GlobalProblemsandthe
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CultureofCapitalism(AllynandBacon,1999),pp.233236foradetailedlookatthis.
Althoughthediscussionabovewasntaboutcarbonemissions,theintentionwasthesame:ratherthandirectly
addresstheproblem,offshoringdirtyindustriestothedevelopingnationsandletthemdealwithit.
Morerecently,TheGuardianprovidedausefulsummaryoftheimpactsofthisapproach:carbonemissions
cutsbydevelopedcountriessince1990havebeencanceledoutbyincreasesinimportedgoodsfrom
developingcountriesmanytimesover.
TheyweresummarizingglobalfigurescompiledandpublishedintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyof
SciencesoftheUS.Andthefindingsseemedtovindicatewhatmanyenvironmentalgroupshadsaidformany
yearsabouttheKyotoProtocolasnotedearlier.
Inmoredetail:
Accordingtostandarddata,developedcountriescanclaimtohavereducedtheircollective
emissionsbyalmost2%between1990and2008.Butoncethecarboncostofimportshave
beenaddedtoeachcountry,andexportssubtractedthetruechangehasbeenanincreaseof
7%.IfRussiaandUkrainewhichcuttheirCO2emissionsrapidlyinthe1990sdueto
economiccollapseareexcluded,theriseis12%.
MuchoftheincreaseinemissionsinthedevelopedworldisduetotheUS,whichpromiseda
7%cutunderKyotobutthendidnottoratifytheprotocol.Emissionswithinitsborders
increasedby17%between1990and2008andby25%whenimportsandexportsare
factoredin.
Inthesameperiod,UKemissionsfellby28milliontonnes,butwhenimportsandexportsare
takenintoaccount,thedomesticfootprinthasrisenbymorethan100milliontonnes.Europe
achieveda6%cutinCO2emissions,butwhenoutsourcingisconsideredthatisreducedto1%.
Thestudyshowsaverydifferentpictureforcountriesthatexportmorecarbonintensive
goodsthantheyimport.China,whosegrowthhasbeendrivenbyexportbasedindustries,is
usuallydescribedastheworld'slargestemitterofCO2,butitsfootprintdropsbyalmostafifth
whenitsimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,puttingitfirmlybehindtheUS.China
aloneaccountsforamassive75%ofthedevelopedworld'soffshoredemissions,accordingto
thepaper.
DuncanClark,Carboncutsbydevelopedcountriescancelledoutbyimportedgoods,TheGuardian,April
25,2011
Inaddition,asClimateNewsNetworknotes,AsiancountrieshavebeencuttingemissionsfasterthanEurope
andtheUS.Atthesametime,therearesignsofprogressinEuropeandtheUS,too.Germanyforexampleis
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knowntobepushingforrenewablesmorethanmost.WhilerecentlytheUShasseenadropincarbon
emissionswhileseeingsomeeconomicgrowth.
DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost
Ithasbeenknownforsometimeknowthatdevelopingcountrieswillbeaffectedthemost.Reasonsvaryfrom
lackingresourcestocope,comparedtodevelopednations,immensepoverty,regionsthatmanydeveloping
countriesareinhappentobetheoneswheresevereweatherwillhitthemost,smallislandnationsarea
alreadyseeingsealevelrising,andsoon.
GermanWatchpublishedaGlobalClimateRiskIndexattheendof2011listingnationsthatwouldbeaffected
themostfromclimatechangebasedonextremeweathersuchashurricanesandfloods.
Between1991and2010theyfoundthesewerethemostaffectednations:
1. Bangladesh
2. Myanmar
3. Honduras
4. Nicaragua
5. Haiti
6. Vietnam
7. DominicanRepublic
8. Pakistan
9. Korea,DPR
10. Philippines
MuchofAsia,aswellaswealthierareassuchastheUS,RussiaandAustraliahavealsoexperiencedspecific
incidentsofverydamagingextremeweatherthattheclimateriskindexcaptures:
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Weatherrelatedlosseventsandtheirimpactsoncountriesin2010and1991to2010
ClimateRiskIndex2012,ClimateWatch,November29,2011(Clickimageforlarger
version)
Into2013,Novembersawpossiblythelargestevertyphoon,Hiayan,makelandfallandcauseincredible
devastationtopartsofthePhilippineswithatleast10,000feareddeadandmorethan9millionaffected.
GeostationarysatellitesoftheJapanMeteorologicalAgency(MTSat2)and
EUMETSAT(Meteosat7)capturedtheextraordinarysizeoftyphoonHiayanasit
approachedthePhilippines.Source.2013JMA/EUMETSAT.
HiayanstruckjustdaysbeforethestartofamajorUNconferenceonclimatechangeperhapsactingasa
wakeupcalltothenegotiatorsregardingpotentialimpactsofinaction.Whilenosingleeventcaneasilybe
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attributedtoclimatechange,astheInstituteforPublicAccuracynotes,thisdevastatingtyphoon
demonstrateshowtheGlobalSouthpaysthepriceforemissionshistoricallyfromtheNorth.
Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise
TheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)notedinNovember2013thattheamountofgreenhouse
gasesintheatmospherereachedanewrecordhighin2012,continuinganupwardandacceleratingtrend
whichisdrivingclimatechangeandwillshapethefutureofourplanetforhundredsandthousandsofyears.
Carbondioxide,mainlyfromfossilfuelrelatedemissions,accountedfor80%ofthisincrease.The
atmosphericincreaseofCO2from2011to2012washigherthanitsaveragegrowthrateoverthepastten
years.
(TheInternationalEnergyAgency,IEA,alsoreportedthisearlierintheyear.)
Sodespiteincreasedglobalwarmingconcernsandcallsforaction,littleseemstohavebeenachieveddueto
thepoliticalchallenges,andskepticismthatabounds.
SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehuman
induced
Foraverylongtime,somethingofcontentionand
debateintheU.S.hadbeenwhetherornotalotof
climatechangehasinfactbeeninducedbyhuman
activities,whilemanyscientistsaroundtheworld,
Europeespecially,havebeenmoreconvincedthat
thisisthecase.
InMay2002,theBushAdministrationintheU.S.
didadmitalinkbetweenhumanactivitiesand
climatechange.However,atthesametimethe
administrationhascontinueditscontroversialstance
ofmaintainingthatitwillnotparticipateinthe
AnneWardPenguin
internationaltreatytolimitglobalwarming,theKyotoProtocol,duetoeconomicprioritiesandconcerns.
(MoreabouttheKyotoProtocol,U.S.andothersactions/inactionsisdiscussedinsubsequentpagesonthis
section.)
Throughoutthe1990s,especiallyintheUnitedStates,butinothercountriesaswell,thosewhowouldtryand
raisetheimportanceofthisissue,andsuggestthatweareperhapsoverconsuming,orunsustainablyusing
ourresourcesetc,werefacedwithalotofcriticismandridicule.ThepreviouslinkistoanarticlebyGeorge
Monbiot,writingin1999.In2004,henotesasimilarissue,wherebymediaattemptsatbalancehasledto
falsebalancingwheredisproportionatetimeisgiventomorefringescientistsorthosewithlesscredibility
orwithadditionalagendas,withoutnotingso,andthusgivestheimpressionthatthereismoredebateinthe
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scientificcommunityaboutwhetherornotclimatechangeisanissuetobeconcernedaboutornot:
Pictureasituationinwhichmostofthemedia,despitetheoverwhelmingweightofmedical
opinion,refusedtoacceptthattherewasaconnectionbetweensmokingandlungcancer.
Imaginethateverytimenewevidenceemerged,theyaskedsomeonewithnomedical
qualificationstowriteapiecedismissingtheevidenceandclaimingthattherewasno
consensusontheissue.
ImaginethattheBBC,intheinterestsofdebate,wheeledoutoneofthetinynumberof
scientistswhosaysthatsmokingandcancerarentlinked,orthatgivingupisntworththe
trouble,everytimetheissueofcancerwasraised.
Imaginethat,asaresult,nexttonothingwasdoneabouttheproblem,tothedelightofthe
tobaccoindustryandthedetrimentofmillionsofsmokers.Wewouldsurelydescribethe
newspapersandtheBBCasgrosslyirresponsible.
Nowstopimaginingit,andtakealookatwhatshappening.Theissueisnotsmoking,but
climatechange.Thescientificconsensusisjustasrobust,themisreportingjustaswidespread,
theconsequencesevengraver.
Thescientificcommunityhasreachedaconsensus,the[U.K.]governmentschiefscientific
adviser,ProfessorDavidKing,toldtheHouseofLordslastmonth.Idonotbelievethat
amongstthescientiststhereisadiscussionastowhetherglobalwarmingisdueto
anthropogeniceffects.
Itismanmadeanditisessentially[causedby]fossilfuelburning,increasedmethane
productionandsoon.SirDavidchosehiswordscarefully.Thereisadiscussionabout
whetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogenic(manmade)effects.Butitisnotorisonly
seldomtakingplaceamongscientists.Itistakingplaceinthemedia,anditseemstoconsistof
acompetitiontoestablishtheouterreachesofimbecility.
Butthese[skepticsandillogicalpointsagainstclimatechange]areratherlessdangerousthan
theBBC,anditsinsistenceonbalancingitscoverageofclimatechange.Itappearstobe
incapableofrunninganitemonthesubjectwithoutinvitingasceptictocommentonit.
Usuallythisiseithersomeonefromacorporatefundedthinktank(whois,ofcourse,never
introducedassuch)ortheprofessionalantienvironmentalistPhilipStott.ProfessorStottisa
retiredbiogeographer.Likealmostalltheprominentscepticshehasneverpublishedapeer
reviewedpaperonclimatechange.Buthehasmadehimselfavailabletodismissclimatologists
peerreviewedworkastheliesofecofundamentalists.
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ThiswouldntbesoobjectionableiftheBBCmadeitclearthatthesepeoplearenot
climatologists,andtheoverwhelmingmajorityofqualifiedscientificopinionisagainstthem.
Instead,itleavesuswiththeimpressionthatprofessionalopinionissplitdownthemiddle.Its
abitlikecontinuallybringingpeopleontotheprogrammetosuggestthatthereisnolink
betweenHIVandAids.
Whatmakesallthissodangerousisthatitplaysintothehandsofcorporatelobbyists.A
recentlyleakedmemowrittenbyFrankLuntz,theUSRepublicanandcorporatestrategist,
warnedthatTheenvironmentisprobablythesingleissueonwhichRepublicansingeneral
andPresidentBushinparticulararemostvulnerableShouldthepubliccometobelieve
thatthescientificissuesaresettled,theirviewsaboutglobalwarmingwillchangeaccordingly.
Therefore,youneedtomakethelackofscientificcertaintyaprimaryissue.
GeorgeMonbiot,Bewarethefossilfools,TheGuardian,April27,2004
Monbiotscommentsabovewereover5yearsago(asofwriting),andyetsomeofthoseconcerns,especially
aboutfalsebalancing,carryontoday.
GarySchmidtisaleadingclimateresearcherworkingforNASA.HeisalsoacontributortoRealClimate.org,a
blogbyclimatescientiststhatattempttodispelmisinformationbyclimateskepticsandprovidebackground
informationoftenmissinginmainstreammedia.Inoneofhisposts,helamentsatthecontinualdiversion
causedbymisinformation:
Recentlytherehasbeenmoreofasensethattheissuesbeingdiscussed(inthemediaor
online)haveabitofagroundhogdayqualitytothem.Thesamenonsense,thesamelogical
fallacies,thesameconfusionsallseemtobeendlesslyrepeated.Thesamestrawmenare
beingconstructedanddemolishedasiftheywerepartofamakeworkschemeforthebuilding
industryattachedtothestimulusproposal.
GarySchmidt,GroundhogDay,RealClimate.org,June8,2009
However,(andperhapsbelatedly)thereisgrowingpublicacceptanceofhumaninducedclimatechangeas
reportssuchastheUSGlobalChangeResearchProgramandtheUKMetOfficeassertthingslikecurrent
climatechangehappeningnowandhumaninducedandthattheywillcausemanyproblems.
But,aswellasgrowingacceptance,thereisalsoloudervocalopposition,andtherepeatednonsenseand
logicalfallaciesthatSchmidtwasconcernedaboutseemstohavehadaneffectuponthegeneralpublicin
theUS,anywayfewerAmericansbelieveinglobalwarming(astheWashingtonPostheadlinedit.
Amongstscientists,however,thereislessskepticism:11%ofUSscientistsfromanyfielddisagreewithhuman
inducedclimatechange,whileonly1%ofUSclimatologistsdisagree,accordingtothefollowing:
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ClimateChange:AConsensusAmongScientists?,informationisbeautiful.net,December23,2009
Askingwhoareamongthe11%ofskepticalscientistsamongstallsciencefields,almosthalfareengineers.
Formoredetailedinformation,thefollowingsitescanbeuseful:
Scienceblogs.comprovidesasummaryofthevariousclaimsofclimatechangedeniers
grist.orgprovidesasimilarlistasScienceBlogs
RealClimate.orgisanauthoritativeblogmaintainedbysomeoftheworldsleadingclimatescientists.
Theyoftenattempttoexplainverytechnicalissuestolaypeopleandoftentrytoaddresscommon
mythsandotherclaims
SkepticalScienceisanotherblogthatlooksatvariousclaimsfromskepticsandaddressesthem.
BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists
AsrevealedtowardstheendofJanuary2006,NASAstopclimatescientistsaidNASAandtheBush
Administrationtriedtosilencehim.
WhileNASAsaidthiswasstandardproceduretoensureanorderlyflowofinformation,thescientist,Dr.
JamesHansendisagreed,sayingthatsuchprocedureshadalreadypreventedthepublicfromfullygrasping
recentfindingsaboutclimatechangethatpointtorisksahead.
Dr.Hansen,accordingtotheNewYorkTimesreportingthis,notedthatthesewerefresheffortstosilence
himbecausehehadsaidthatsignificantemissioncutscouldbeachievedwithexistingtechnologies,
particularlyinthecaseofmotorvehicles,andthatwithoutleadershipbytheUnitedStates,climatechange
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wouldeventuallyleavetheearthadifferentplanet.(Bycontrast,theBushadministrationspolicyistouse
voluntarymeasurestoslow,butnotreverse,thegrowthofemissions.)
Furthermore,AfterthatspeechandthereleaseofdatabyDr.HansenonDec.15showingthat2005was
probablythewarmestyearinatleastacentury,officialsattheheadquartersofthespaceagencyrepeatedly
phonedpublicaffairsofficers,whorelayedthewarningtoDr.Hansenthattherewouldbedireconsequences
ifsuchstatementscontinued,thoseofficersandDr.Hansensaidininterviews.
Earlier,in2004,Dr.HansenfelloutoffavorwiththeBushAdministrationforpubliclystatingbeforethe
presidentialelectionsthatgovernmentscientistswerebeingmuzzledandthatheplannedtovoteforJohn
Kerry.
TheNewYorkTimesalsonotesthatthisechoesotherrecentdisputes,wherebymanyscientistswho
routinelytookcallsfromreportersfiveyearsagocannowdosoonlyiftheinterviewisapprovedby
administrationofficialsinWashington,andthenonlyifapublicaffairsofficerispresentoronthephone.
Furthermore,Wherescientistspointsofviewonclimatepolicyalignwiththoseoftheadministration,
however,therearefewsignsofrestrictionsonextracurricularlecturesorwriting.
Andintermsofmediamanipulation,theTimesalsorevealedthatatleastoneinterview(amongstmany
others)wascanceledbecauseitwaswithNPR,whichthepublicaffairsofficialresponsiblefeltwasthemost
liberalmediaoutletinthecountry.Thisimpliesapoliticalbias/propagandaintermsofhowinformationis
releasedtothepublic,whichshouldbeofseriousconcern.
AtthebeginningofJune,2006,theBBCPanoramadocumentaryfolloweduponthisandfoundthatmany
scientistsfelttheywerebeingcensoredandthatvariousreportshadbeensystematicallysuppressed,even
altered.Inonecase,amajorclimateassessmentreportwasdueoutamonthbeforethe2004presidential
elections,butwasdelayedbecauseithadsuchableakassessment,andtheBushadministrationdidnotwantit
tobepartoftheelectionissues.Itwasreleasedshortlyaftertheelectionswereover.
PanoramaalsointerviewedapollsterwhohadadvisedtheBushAdministrationwhentheycameintopowerin
2000toquestionglobalwarming,thathumanscauseditifitexistedatall,tohireskepticalscientists,andplay
downitsimpacts.(TheadvisorhasnowdistancedhimselfawayfromtheBushAdministrationsstancetoday
becausehefeltthesciencewasmorecertainthanitwasin2000.)
JustweeksbeforehurricaneKatrinadevastatedpartsofSouthernUnitedStates,Panoramareportedthat
AnotherscientistfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)hadresearchwhich
establishedglobalwarmingcouldincreasetheintensityofhurricanes.Hewasduetogiveaninterviewabout
hisworkbutclaimshewasgagged.AfterKatrina,theNOAAwebsitesaidunusualhurricaneactivityisnot
relatedtoglobalwarming.WhenaleadingscientistwasaskedwhyNOAAcameoutwithsuchastatement,he
suggesteditwasideologicallydriven.
(TheBBCPanoramadocumentaryiscalledClimatechaos:Bushsclimateoffearandaswellasasummary,
youcanwatchtheactualdocumentaryonline.)
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Despiteattemptstodiscreditglobalwarmingconcerns,theBushAdministrationhasnowconcededthatthere
isclimatechangeandthathumansarecontributingtoit,butPanoramareportsthatalotofvitaltimehas
beenlost,andthatsomescientistsfearUSpolicymaybetooslowtocarryout.
AlmostayearafterthestoryaboutattemptstosilenceNASAstopclimatescientist,manymediaoutletshave
reportedonanewsurveywherehundredsofgovernmentscientistssaytheyhaveperceivedorpersonally
experiencedpressurefromtheBushadministrationtoeliminatephrasessuchasclimatechangeandglobal
warmingfromtheirreportsandpublicstatements.AUSgovernmenthearingintheUSisalsopursuingthis
furtherastheseriousnessofclimatechangeisbecomingmoreaccepted.
TherehasbeenasimilarconcerninAustralia.Atthebeginningof2006,theAustralianBroadcasting
Company(ABC)revealedthatsomebusinesslobbygroupshaveinfluencedtheAustraliangovernmentto
preventAustraliafromreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Thislobbygroupincludedinterestsfromthecoal,
electricity,aluminum(aluminium),petroleum,mineralsandcementindustries.Thedocumentaryexposing
thisrevealedpossiblecorruptionwithingovernmentduetoextremelyclosetieswithsuchindustriesand
lobbygroups,andallegedsilencingofgovernmentclimatescientists.
Inwhatwouldseemtobeatwisttosuppressionofgovernmentreports,itwaswidelyclaimedthattheUS
EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhadsuppressedareportthatwasskepticalofclimatechange.However,it
turnsoutthatwhilethereportwaswrittenbyanemployeeonEPAtime,butonhisowninitiativeandnot
qualifiedtodoso,andsocouldntbepublishedbytheEPAandthereforewasnotsuppressed.Furthermore,
asthepreviouslinkfinds,thereportcontainedlargepiecesofplagiarism.Inaddition,thereportwasflawedas
RealClimte.orgquicklyshowed.
Theheadlinesaboutthisepisodetalkedofsuppressionandwouldlikelyincreasetheviewamongstthose
stillskepticalaboutclimatechange.Correctionstothoseheadlineshavebeenfew,andlessprominent,by
comparison.
ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered
Pollutionfromvariousindustries,theburningoffossilfuels,methanefromfarmanimals,forestdestruction,
rotting/deadvegetationetchaveledtoanincreasednumberofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.And,as
internationaltradeinitscurrentformcontinuestoexpandwithlittleregardfortheenvironment,the
transportationalone,ofgoodsisthoughttoconsiderablycontributetoglobalwarmingviaemissionsfrom
planes,shipsandothertransportationvehicles.(Formoreabouttradeandglobalizationinitscurrentform
andhowitaffectstheenvironment,aswellasotherconsequences,visitthiswebsitessectiononTrade,
Economy,&RelatedIssues.)
Evensulphuremittedfromshipsarethoughttocontributeafairbittoclimatechange.(Ifyouhaveregistered
atthejournal,Nature,thenyoucanseethereporthere.)Infact,sulphurbasedgas,originatingfromindustry,
discoveredin2000isthoughttobethemostpotentgreenhousegasmeasuredtodate.Itiscalled
trifluoromethylsulphurpentafluoride(SF5CF3).
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TheGuardianaddsthatonegiantcontainershipcanemitalmostthesameamountofcancerandasthma
causingchemicalsas50millioncars.
Furthermore,Confidentialdatafrommaritimeindustryinsidersbasedonenginesizeandthequalityoffuel
typicallyusedbyshipsandcarsshowsthatjust15oftheworld'sbiggestshipsmaynowemitasmuchpollution
asalltheworlds760mcars.Lowgradeshipbunkerfuel(orfueloil)
hasupto2,000timesthesulphurcontentofdieselfuelusedinUS
andEuropeanautomobiles.
(Shippingisresponsiblefor3.5%to4%ofallclimatechange
emissionstheGuardianalsonotes.)
NewScientist.comreports(December22,2003)onastudythat
suggestssootparticlesmaybeworsethancarbondioxidein
contributingtoglobalwarming.Thesootparticlesalsooriginate
fromindustry,andduringtheindustrialrevolution,wasquite
Photo:fullcargoship.Credit:YP/Flickr
common.Whileonthepositivesidethereislesssootthesedaysandperhapseasiertocontrolifneeded,
alone,asoneofthescientistsofthestudycommented,Itdoesnotchangetheneedtoslowdownthegrowth
rateofcarbondioxideandeventuallystabilizetheatmosphericamount.
NewScientist.comandothershavealsoreported(August2005)that
theworldslargestfrozenpeatbogismelting,andcouldunleash
billionsoftonnesofmethane,apotentgreenhousegas,intothe
atmosphere.AnareathesizeofFranceandGermanycombinedhas
beenmeltinginthelast4years.Inaddition,WesternSiberiahas
warmedfasterthanalmostanywhereelseontheplanet,withan
increaseinaveragetemperaturesofsome3Cinthelast40years.
Ascientistexplainedafearthatifthebogsdryoutastheywarm,the
Photo:PeatBogWesternSiberia.Credit:
ressaure/Flickr
methanewilloxidiseandescapeintotheairascarbondioxide.Butifthebogsremainwet,asisthecasein
westernSiberiatoday,thenthemethanewillbereleasedstraightintotheatmosphere.Methaneis20timesas
potentagreenhousegasascarbondioxide.
Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted
Whilethosedenyingclimatechangearereducinginnumberandthereappearstobemoreefforttotryand
tackletheproblem,climatescientistsarenowfearingthatclimatechangeishappeningfarfasterandishaving
muchlargerimpactsthantheyeverimagined.
TheArcticplaysanincrediblyimportantroleinthebalanceoftheearthsclimate.Rapidchangestoitcanhave
knockoneffectstotherestoftheplanet.SomehavedescribedtheArcticasthecanaryinthecoalmine,
referringtohowcanarybirdsusedtobetakendeepdowncoalmines.Iftheydied,itimpliedoxygenlevels
werelowandsignaledmineworkerstogetout.
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Satelliteobservationsshowthearcticseaicedecreasing,andprojectionsfortherestofthecenturypredict
evenmoreshrinkage:
Image:ThedecreaseofArcticseaice,minimumextentin1982and2007,andclimateprojections.UNEP/GRID
Arendal,2007
Intermsofbiodiversity,theprospectoficefreesummersintheArcticOceanimpliesthelossofanentire
biome,theGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportnotes(p.57).
Inaddition,Wholespeciesassemblagesareadaptedtolifeontopoforundericefromthealgaethatgrow
ontheundersideofmultiyearice,formingupto25%oftheArcticOceansprimaryproduction,tothe
invertebrates,birds,fishandmarinemammalsfurtherupthefoodchain.Theiconicpolarbearatthetopof
thatfoodchainisthereforenottheonlyspeciesatriskeventhoughitmaygetmoremediaattention.
Note,theiceintheArcticdoesthawandrefreezeeachyear,butitisthatpatternwhichhaschangedalotin
recentyearsasshownbythisgraph:
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TheextentoffloatingseaiceintheArcticOcean,asmeasuredatitsannualminimumin
September,showedasteadydeclinebetween1980and2009.Source:NationalSnowandIce
DataCenter,graphcompiledbySecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010)
GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May2010
ItisalsoimportanttonotethatlossofseaicehasimplicationsonbiodiversitybeyondtheArctic,astheGlobal
BiodiversityOutlookreportalsosummarizes:
Brightwhiteicereflectssunlight.
Whenitisreplacedbydarkerwater,theoceanandtheairheatmuchfaster,afeedback
thatacceleratesicemeltandheatingofsurfaceairinland,withresultantlossoftundra.
Lessseaiceleadstochangesinseawatertemperatureandsalinity,leadingtochangesin
primaryproductivityandspeciescompositionofplanktonandfish,aswellaslargescale
changesinoceancirculation,affectingbiodiversitywellbeyondtheArctic.
SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010),GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May,2010,
p.57
SomescientistsfearchangesarehappeningtotheArcticmuchfasterthananticipated.Thepreviouslink
mentionsthatdespitecomputerclimatemodelspredictinglossofArcticseaiceby2050to2080,some
scientistsfearitcouldbeassoonas2015.TheBBCnotessimilarconcernsbyscientists,withonequotedas
sayingtheseaiceissothinthatyouwouldhavetohaveanexceptionalsequenceofcoldwintersandcold
summersinorderforittorebuild.
AnotherBBCarticlereportsscientistsnowhaveunambiguousevidencethatthewarmingintheArcticis
accelerating.
TheArcticreflectsmuchsunlightbackintospacehelpingkeepearthtemperate.Moremeltingwillresultin
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lessreflectionandevenmoreheatbeingabsorbedbytheearth.Achainreactioncouldresult,suchasthe
Greenlandicesheetmelting(whichwillactuallyincreasesealevels,whereasthemeltingofArcticicewillnot
becauseitisseaice),possiblyincreasingthemeltingofpermafrostinSiberia,whichwillreleasehugeamounts
ofmethane(asnotedabove),andrapidlychangeclimatepatterns,circulationpatternsandjetstreams,far
quickerthanwhatmostoftheenvironmentcouldadapttoeasily.
OldermembersoftheindigenousInuitpeopledescribehowweatherpatternshaveshiftedandchangedin
recentyears,whiletheyalsofacechallengestotheirwayoflifeintheformofincreasedcommercialinterestin
thearcticregion.Thiscombinationofenvironmentalandeconomicfactorsputindigenouspopulationsways
atacrossroadsasthisdocumentaryfromexplore.orgshows:
Video:Arctic:ChangeattheTopoftheWorld,Explore.org,September2007Follow
linkfortranscriptandmoreinformation
Fordecades,scientistsandenvironmentalistshavewarnedthatthewayweareusingEarthsresourcesisnot
sustainable.Alternativetechnologieshavebeencalledforrepeatedly,seeminglyupondeafears(or,cynically,
uponthosewhodontwanttomakesubstantialchangesasitchallengestheirbottomlineandtakesawayfrom
theircurrentprofits).
Inthepast,somecompaniesandindustrieshavepushedbackonenvironmentalprogramsinordertoincrease
profitsortosurviveinatoughbusinessworld.
Ithasperhapstakenaboutadecadeorsoandasevereenoughglobalfinancialcrisisthathashittheheartof
thiswayofthinkingtochangethismentality(inwhichtime,moregreenhousegaseshavebeenemitted
inefficiently).Isthattoolateorwillitbeokay?
Economiststalkofthepricesignalthatisfundamentaltocapitalismtheabilityforpricestoindicatewhena
resourceisbecomingscarcer.Atsuchatime,capitalismandthemarketswillmobilizeautomaticallytoaddress
thisbylookingforwaystobringdowncosts.Asaresult,resourcesaresupposedlyinfinite.Forexample,if
energycostsgoup,businesseswilllookforawaytominimizesuchcostsforthemselves,anditisinsuchatime
thatalternativescomeaboutand/orexistingresourceslastlongerbecausetheyareusedmoreefficiently.
Runningoutofresourcesshouldthereforebeaverted.
However,ithaslongbeenarguedthatpricesdonttrulyreflectthefullcostofthings,soeitherthesignalis
incorrect,orcomestoolate.Thepricesignalalsoimpliesthepoorestoftenpaytheheaviestcosts.For
example,commerciallyoverfishingaregionmaymeanfishfromthatareabecomeshardertocatchandmore
expensive,possiblyallowingthatecosystemtimetorecover(thoughthatisnotguaranteed,either).However,
whilecommercialentitiescanexploitresourceselsewhere,localfishermenwillgooutofbusinessandthe
poorerwilllikelygohungry(asalsodetailedonthissitessectiononbiodiversity).Thisthenhasanimpacton
variouslocalsocial,politicalandeconomicissues.
Inadditiontothat,otherrelatedmeasurements,suchasGNParethereforeflawed,andevenreward
unproductiveorinefficientbehavior(e.g.Efficientlyproducingunhealthyfoodandtheunhealthy
consumerculturetogowithitmayprofitthefoodindustryandaprivatehealthsectorthathastodealwith
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it,allofwhichrequiremoreuseofresources.Moreexamplesarediscussedonthissitessectionon
consumptionandconsumerism).
Ourcontinuedinefficientpumpingofgreenhousegasesintotheenvironmentwithoutfactoringtheenormous
costastheclimatealreadybeginstochangeisperhapsanexamplewherepricesignalsmaycometoolate,orat
atimewhenthereisalreadysignificantimpacttomanypeople.Resourcesthatcouldbeavailablemore
indefinitely,becomefinitebecauseofourinabilityorunwillingnesstochange.
Thesubsequentpagesonthissitelookatthepoliticalissuesaroundtacklingclimatechange.
Wherenext?
Relatedarticles
1. ClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroduction
2. UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange
3. ReactionstoClimateChangeNegotiationsandAction
4. Actiononclimatechangeischeaperthaninaction
5. GlobalWarming,SpinandMedia
6. ClimateJusticeandEquity
7. ClimateChangeFlexibilityMechanisms
8. CarbonSinks,ForestsandClimateChange
9. ClimateChangeAffectsBiodiversity
10. GlobalWarmingandPopulation
Seemorerelatedarticles
byAnupShah
Created:Monday,July20,1998
LastUpdated:Sunday,February01,2015
Giveamanafishyouhavefedhimfortoday.Teachamantofishandyouhavefedhimforalifetime.
OldChineseSaying
Copyright19982015
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