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Disclaimer
THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY AND SHALL NOT BE CONSTRUED TO CONSTITUTE
INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOTHING CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL CONSTITUTE
A SOLICITATION, RECOMMENDATION OR ENDORSEMENT TO BUY OR
SELL ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT.
Union Pacific
The semiconductor, U.S. airline, and auto rental industries today remind me of
the railroads a decade or so ago: a lousy, capital-intensive industry
characterized by cut-throat competition, low margins, low returns on capital, and
high debt levels consolidates and slowly turns into a much better industry
When this happens, there can be a decade-long tailwind of strong top-time
growth combined with improved pricing, margins, and returns on capital, leading
to rapidly rising earnings
This, combined with investors awarding these earnings a higher multiple, can
lead to tremendous long-term stock returns (the worst performer is up 7x!):
KC Southern
Union Pacific
Canadian Natl
CSX
S&P 500
Overview
-6-
-7-
-8-
-9-
-10-
$25
$20
$B
$15
$10
$5
$0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-11-
25%
Return on Equity %
Net Income Margin %
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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Valuation
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-14-
-16-
General Electric
Overview
-18-
$200
$180
$160
$B
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
-19-
30%
25%
Return on Equity %
Net Income Margin %
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-20-
-21-
Segment
Power & Water
Aviation
Healthcare
Oil & Gas
Energy Management
GE Capital
Transportation
Appliances & Lighting
2015
Estimated
Revenue
$35.4
$25.8
$18.3
$16.5
$9.7
$9.5
$6.1
$1.5
2015 Est.
Operating
Margin
15.9%
21.5%
17.2%
13.1%
5.2%
15.0%
21.1%
5.5%
Note: Revenue estimates for GE Capital and Appliances & Lighting are for 2016 to reflect pending sales
-22-
Valuation
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At 16-20x $2.50 results in a share price of $40-$50 in 2018, 5493% above todays levels and you get paid a 3.5% dividend
while you wait
-24-
+60%
-25-
+100%
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