Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
of which DPS
Previous
Total stock return
Target Price:
8.5
FTSE MI:
462.61
EPS
31.2%
2014a
2015e
2016e
5.8x
2.1x
0.3x
2.7x
3.0x
11.2%
19%
8.2x
2.0x
0.3x
3.3x
3.9x
7.9%
25%
6.4x
1.8x
0.2x
2.1x
2.4x
10.1%
35%
1.12
1.12
0.73
0.79
1.12
0.52
1.01
1.22
0.66
216
-149
236
-181
262
-220
912
119
106
80
948
86
73
57
999
117
104
72
Re-iterate Outperform
Aegean lived the drama of the sharp downturn in the Greek economy after the
capital controls were imposed on June 26th. The impact in terms of yields is expected
2017e to be severe (AFe FY 15e -9% y-o-y) but should be partly counterbalanced by strong
5.6x traffic (July passengers up 19% y-o-y - AFe FY 15e +13.2% y-o-y). During the first
1.6x
three weeks the capital controls were imposed, Aegean planes were flying with good
0.2x
1.6x load factors as more of the tickets were pre sold. Thus, the lack of pre-booking
1.8x caused by the adverse conditions in the local banking system did not have an initial
11.6% effect. In order to reboot the demand in the market Aegean was forced to put
41% additional pressure on pricing especially in domestic destinations. Additionally,
demand from international travelers resumed normal levels quite fast in July as the
1.16
1.18 risk was contained when Greece agreed on a new bailout. The company also
0.76 exploited the inability of its biggest competitor (Ryanair) to accept Greek customers
credit cards during the high demand period of July due to the capital controls
291 situation. Overall, tourism showed a significant resilience with the overall effect
-252 being moderate for Aegean. Therefore, we believe that if a pro-bailout coalition
government is formed in upcoming September 20th national elections, economic
1,055
stability will gradually return and tourism is set for a very strong 2016. Aegean will
132
119 find itself at a pole position against completion ready to absorb increased demand.
83
Trading data
1m
3m
6m
8.5%
12.2%
11.3%
Rel. Performance
5.7% -10.3% -13.3%
Abs. Performance
8.1 5.0
H | L 52w
464.2
Market cap. (mn)
Shares outstanding (m): 71.4
39% 181.5
Free float (%, mn)
Avg. vol. Traded (52w): 97.45k
Index constituent & weight:
ASE (1.9%), FTSE LC (1.32%), FTSE MI (1.26%)
12m
8.5%
5.7%
52w performance
400
6.5
September 4, 2015
0.66
9.50
Valuation
P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Dividend yield
FCF yield
Per share
EPS
EPS old
DPS
BS data (m)
Sh. Equity
Net debt
P&L data (m)
Revenues
EBITDA
EBIT
Net income
Mkt. Price:
8.5
8.0
300
7.5
7.0
200
6.5
6.0
100
5.5
0
N-14
5.0
J-15
F-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
Adjusted price
M-15
New Assumptions
In a snap, a) we increased 2015 fleet to 58 from 57 but kept our long term estimate
to 58 planes, b) adjusted 2015 on the back of recent events by setting passenger
yields down 9% (vs. AFe old -5%) and passengers to 11.4mn vs. AFe old 11.69mn,
c) revisited our cost assumptions adjusting oil estimates (2016 hedge at $6020/barrel vs. $ 75-77 in 2105 -- l/t EBITDAR margin 16-17% vs. AFe old 17% and
CASK CAGR 14/17e -3.9% vs. AFe old 1.2%).
1H 15 snapshot
Revenues, EBITDAR, EBITDA and net income came at 403.6mn (+6% y-o-y, AFe
402.2mn), 67mn (+-8.4% y-o-y, AFe 66.6mn), 19.7mn (-33% y-o-y) and
14.8mn (-8% y-o-y AFe 11.6mn) respectively. Yields retreated by 8% y-o-y and
load factors were down 2.7% annually to 73.4% (RPK/ASK). Traffic was up 15% yo-y to 4.9mn (2.5mn domestic +10% y-o-y - 2.4mn international +20% y-o-y). FCF
was positive by 130.8mn vs. 113.9mn in 1H 14.
Aegean Airlines is a Greek commercial full service aircraft carrier that operates scheduled and charter routes to Greek
(domestic) and international destinations.
Alpha Finance does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Consequently, investors should be aware that the firm may have
a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment
decision.
Aegean Airlines
Aegean Airlines
Current Price
6.5
Sector: Travel & Leisure
12m
9%
6%
6.4
2015e
2016e
2017e
948
86
196
73
78
0
57
0.79
0.52
71
999
117
228
104
102
0
72
1.01
0.66
71
1,055
132
243
119
117
0
83
1.16
0.76
71
2015e
78
240
409
661
236
0
50
125
9
300
661
2015e
84
5
80
10
69
0
0
37
0
-181
2015e
4%
-27%
-6%
-31%
-18%
-29%
-29%
2015e
9%
21%
8%
8%
6%
2015e
8.2x
2.0x
0.3x
3.3x
1.4x
3.9x
24.5%
7.9%
65%
0.2x
-2.1x
2.9x
24%
14%
2016e
76
281
457
708
262
0
51
126
10
320
708
2016e
82
-15
97
11
86
2
0
47
0
-220
2016e
5%
35%
16%
42%
31%
27%
27%
2016e
12%
23%
10%
10%
7%
2016e
6.4x
1.8x
0.2x
2.1x
1.1x
2.4x
35.0%
10.1%
65%
0.2x
-1.9x
11.8x
28%
21%
2017e
74
315
493
742
291
0
52
127
11
325
742
2017e
95
-3
98
11
86
2
0
54
0
-252
2017e
6%
12%
7%
14%
15%
15%
15%
2017e
12%
23%
11%
11%
8%
2017e
5.6x
1.6x
0.2x
1.6x
0.9x
1.8x
40.6%
11.6%
65%
0.2x
-1.9x
13.5x
29%
29%
website: www.aegeanair.com
all prices as of Septemenr 3rd
Research analyst
Antonis Diapoulis
+30 210 367 7532
antonis.diapoulis@alphafinance.gr
Aegean Airlines
Valuation Sensitivity
We value Aegean airlines through a DCF model to yield a 2016 target price of 8.5 (vs.
AFe old 9.5). Our valuation methodology is sensitive to oil, passenger traffic
volatility, macroeconomic conditions and all the risks associated with the airline
business. For our DCF model for Aegean airlines we have assumed a variable WACC rate of
c.11.8% (AFe old 13.2%), 0.5% terminal growth rate and a beta of 1.
WACC/Tg sensitivity
2014e
209.47
53.11
14.39
11.01
-22.49
90.68
84.80
2015e
196.34
10.25
21.00
13.40
4.55
109.95
64.00
2016e
227.84
11.75
29.49
13.25
-14.87
110.78
103.93
11.7%
100.0%
0.00
216.8
125.2
0.5%
-220.1
0.0
562.1
71.4
0.7
8.5
2017e
242.84
12.29
33.89
13.12
-3.18
111.19
101.78
11.8%
89.5%
91.07
2018e
217.44
12.85
29.09
11.19
3.59
104.38
78.71
11.8%
80.1%
63.01
2019e
191.14
13.44
20.88
11.08
4.48
106.48
56.94
11.8%
71.6%
40.78
2020e
178.59
14.07
17.27
10.68
17.32
106.38
34.23
11.8%
64.1%
21.93
=1,
Rf/Rp =8%/5%
WACC/Tg
12.8%
11.8%
10.8%
-0.5%
8.1
8.4
8.7
0.5%
8.2
8.5
8.9
1.5%
8.4
8.7
9.1
Aegean Airlines
Forecast Changes
Forecast Changes
(mn eu)
2014a
Scheduled Services
% change
Charter
% change
Other
% change
Revenues
%change
748.6
3.9%
61.4
-21.1%
101.9
95.7%
911.8
7.3%
new
797.9
6.6%
39.3
-36.0%
111.0
9.0%
948.2
4.0%
100.5
-2.2%
232.8
4.2%
77.6
8.9%
53.9
16.8%
51.5
-0.2%
37.4
8.5%
21.1
13.1%
61.2
5.6%
12.3
45.7%
62.7
0.3%
209.5
15.2%
23.0%
90.7
9.9%
118.8
30.7%
13.0%
12.8
106.0
38.0%
11.6%
11.3
94.6
33.6%
10.4%
14.4
0.0
80.2
53.0%
8.8%
1.12
38.9%
0.0%
110.7
10.2%
213.9
-8.1%
88.8
14.4%
64.1
18.8%
59.8
16.0%
47.9
28.1%
25.0
18.8%
70.4
15.0%
14.1
15.0%
69.0
10.0%
196.3
-6.3%
20.7%
109.9
11.6%
86.4
-27.3%
9.1%
13.4
73.0
-31.1%
7.7%
-4.8
77.8
-17.8%
8.2%
21.0
0.0
56.8
-29.3%
6.0%
0.79
-29.3%
-29.2%
Employee benefits
% change
Aircraft Fuel
% change
Aircraft Maintenance
% change
Overflight expenses
% change
Ground Handling Expenses
% change
Airport Charges
% change
Catering Expenses
% change
Distribution Expenses
% change
Marketing & Advertising
% change
Other Operating Expenses
% change
EBITDAR
%change
EBITDAR margin
Aircraft Lease Cost
% of Turnover
EBITDA
%change
EBITDA margin
Depreciation & amortization
EBIT
% change
EBIT margin
Financials
Pre - Tax Profit
% change
Pre-Tax profit margin
Total Tax
Minorities
Net income
%change
Net Profit margin
EPS
%change
EPS Delta
Source: Company data | AFe
2015e
2016e
old
841.6
12.4%
60.3
-1.7%
117.2
15.0%
1019.1
12%
113.9
13.4%
202.2
-13.2%
103.0
32.7%
69.6
29.0%
59.7
15.9%
44.8
19.6%
26.8
27.2%
67.3
10.0%
22.1
80.0%
90.9
45.0%
227.3
9%
22.3%
105.72
10.4%
121.6
2%
11.9%
11.13
110.5
4%
10.8%
2.12
108.3
14%
10.6%
28.17
0.00
80.2
0%
7.9%
1.12
new
838.1
5.0%
38.5
-2.0%
122.1
10.0%
998.7
5.3%
115.7
4.6%
185.9
-13.1%
96.1
8.1%
65.4
2.0%
62.8
5.0%
52.7
10.0%
27.7
10.6%
80.9
15.0%
16.3
15.0%
79.3
15.0%
227.8
16.0%
22.8%
110.8
11.1%
117.1
35.5%
11.7%
13.3
103.8
42.2%
10.4%
2.1
101.7
30.8%
10.2%
29.5
0.0
72.2
27.2%
7.2%
1.01
27.2%
-14.7%
2017e
old
884.0
5.0%
59.1
-2.0%
128.9
10.0%
1072.1
5%
122.6
7.6%
213.1
5.4%
98.8
-4.1%
73.1
5.0%
62.7
5.0%
45.6
2.0%
31.0
15.8%
74.0
10.0%
24.3
10.0%
100.0
10.0%
235.1
3%
21.9%
108.45
10.1%
126.7
4%
11.8%
10.98
115.7
5%
10.8%
1.23
114.5
6%
10.7%
29.76
0.00
84.7
6%
7.9%
1.19
new
883.2
5.4%
37.7
-2.0%
134.4
10.0%
1055.2
5.7%
118.0
2.0%
195.8
5.4%
103.8
8.0%
66.7
2.0%
64.7
3.0%
55.3
5.0%
28.7
3.5%
83.4
3.0%
16.6
2.0%
91.2
15.0%
242.8
6.6%
23.0%
111.2
10.5%
131.6
12.5%
12.5%
13.1
118.5
14.2%
11.2%
1.7
116.8
14.9%
11.1%
33.9
0.0
83.0
14.9%
7.9%
1.16
14.9%
2.7%
CAGR 14/17e
old
898.0
1.6%
58.0
-2.0%
141.8
10.0%
1097.8
2%
125.1
2.0%
224.5
5.4%
101.8
3.0%
74.5
2.0%
64.6
3.0%
46.6
2.0%
32.1
3.5%
76.3
3.0%
24.8
2.0%
106.0
6.0%
229.8
-2%
20.9%
108.73
9.9%
121.1
-4%
11.0%
10.85
110.2
-5%
10.0%
1.07
109.2
-5%
9.9%
28.39
0.00
80.8
-5%
7.4%
1.13
new
5.7%
old
6.3%
-15.0%
-1.9%
9.7%
11.6%
5.0%
6.4%
5.5%
7.6%
-5.6%
-1.2%
10.2%
9.5%
7.3%
11.4%
7.9%
7.8%
14.0%
7.6%
10.8%
15.1%
10.9%
7.6%
10.5%
26.4%
13.3%
19.1%
5.1%
3.1%
7.0%
6.2%
3.5%
0.6%
3.8%
1.3%
7.3%
4.9%
1.1%
0.2%
Aegean Airlines
2014a
incl.
Olympic
2015e
2016e
2017e
CAGR 14/17e
new
old
new
old
new
old
new
old
5.240
15.2%
4.334
19.7%
0.539
-19.9%
10.113
5.491
4.8%
5.550
28.1%
0.402
-25.5%
11.443
5.546
1.0%
6.105
10.0%
0.402
0.0%
12.053
2.7%
12.1%
12.4%
-9.3%
-0.2%
6.2%
6.9%
5.3%
80%
5.3%
79.8%
5.3%
104
5.3%
12,710
15.9%
0.5%
80%
0.5%
80.2%
0.5%
105
0.5%
12,768
0.5%
5.677
1.0%
6.153
0.0%
0.536
0.0%
12.367
0.5%
82%
0.5%
82.3%
0.5%
106
0.5%
11,940
0.5%
2.2%
13.2%
75.8%
-3.6%
75.8%
-1.9%
99
-2.8%
10,969
14.5%
5.621
1.0%
6.153
10.0%
0.536
0.0%
12.310
5.3%
82%
5.3%
81.9%
5.3%
105
5.3%
11,886
5.3%
5.601
1.0%
6.105
0.0%
0.402
0.0%
12.108
14.4%
78.6%
0.4%
77.3%
4.1%
102
7.6%
9,584
8.4%
5.565
6.2%
5.594
29.1%
0.536
-0.6%
11.695
15.6%
77.8%
-1.0%
77.8%
0.7%
100
-1.4%
11,292
17.8%
0.7%
1.5%
1.2%
2.1%
0.9%
1.4%
10.0%
7.6%
50
12,194
13.6%
13,088
10.2%
148,062
9.0%
99,486
6.3%
132
3.9%
58
14,473
18.7%
15,098
15.4%
177,034
19.6%
115,863
16.5%
130
-1.3%
57
14,511
19.0%
15,028
14.8%
196,248
32.5%
116,699
17.3%
129
-2.4%
58
15,920
10.0%
15,098
0.0%
177,269
0.1%
115,863
0.0%
130
0.0%
57
14,511
0.0%
15,028
0.0%
196,484
0.1%
116,699
0.0%
129
0.0%
58
15,920
0.0%
15,098
0.0%
177,345
0.0%
115,863
0.0%
130
0.0%
57
14,511
0.0%
15,028
0.0%
196,559
0.0%
116,699
0.0%
129
0.0%
9.3%
6.0%
4.9%
4.7%
6.2%
9.9%
5.2%
5.5%
-0.4%
-0.8%
767
4.8%
959
25.0%
966
25.9%
1,054
10.0%
966
0.0%
1,054
0.0%
966
0.0%
11.2%
8.0%
7.5
-27.4%
9.5
-7.6%
6.6
-12.4%
8.6
-9.1%
7.0
-6.1%
9.0
-5.1%
6.3
-4.2%
7.9
-9.1%
7.4
5.2%
9.0
-0.1%
6.6
5.7%
8.3
5.2%
7.6
2.4%
9.2
1.9%
-3.9%
0.4%
-4.6%
-1.1%
5.8
-8.9%
5.3
-9.5%
5.5
-5.4%
4.9
-6.8%
5.8
5.6%
5.2
5.3%
6.0
3.7%
-3.9%
1.2%
3.9
-8.8%
99
1.33
3.8
-3.1%
53
1.10
4.1
5.1%
60
1.10
3.7
-1.3%
55
1.10
4.4
5.7%
70
1.10
3.9
5.3%
60
1.10
4.5
3.1%
75
1.10
0.2%
4.6%
-15.5%
-6.1%
-9.0%
-6.1%
Aegean Airlines
1H 15 Review
Quarterly results
Revenues
%change
Cost Of Sales
% change
% of Sales
Gross Profit
% change
% margin
EBITDAR
%change
EBITDAR margin
Aircraft Lease Cost
EBITDA
%change
EBITDA margin
EBIT
% change
EBIT margin
Financials
Income from Investments
Pre - Tax Profit
% change
Pre-Tax profit margin
Total Tax
Minorities
Net income
%change
Net Profit margin
2Q 14a
254.7
12.7%
183.1
12.8%
71.9%
71.6
12.5%
28.1%
1H 14a
388.6
8.5%
298.1
7.0%
76.7%
90.5
FY 14a
911.8
7.3%
659.5
5.3%
72.3%
252.3
1Q 15a
138.1
3.1%
123.3
7.2%
89.3%
14.8
2Q 15e
264.1
3.7%
189.2
3.4%
71.6%
74.9
1H 15e
402.2
3.5%
312.5
4.8%
77.7%
89.7
2Q 15a
265.5
4.3%
197.8
8.0%
74.5%
67.7
1H 15a
403.6
3.9%
321.1
7.7%
79.5%
82.6
23.3%
27.7%
10.7%
28.4%
22.3%
25.5%
20.5%
58.8
12.9%
23.1%
72.7
21.1%
18.7%
209.5
15.2%
23.0%
6.8
-51.4%
4.9%
59.8
1.7%
22.6%
66.6
-8.4%
16.5%
60.2
2.5%
22.7%
67.0
-7.9%
16.6%
22.9
43.4
90.7
20.9
28.7
49.6
26.3
47.2
35.9
22.1%
14.1%
29.3
98.6%
7.5%
118.8
30.7%
13.0%
-14.1
115.1%
-10.2%
31.1
-13.3%
11.8%
17.0
-42.1%
4.2%
33.9
-5.5%
12.8%
19.7
-32.6%
4.9%
32.9
27.2%
12.9%
23.2
186.8%
6.0%
106.0
38.0%
11.6%
-17.4
80.5%
-12.6%
28.1
-14.5%
10.6%
10.7
-54.1%
2.6%
30.3
-8.0%
11.4%
12.8
-44.9%
3.2%
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
11.3
0.0
-5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.2
0.0
-1.0
0.0
-6.1
0.0
32.8
22.5%
12.9%
22.0
204.7%
5.7%
94.6
33.6%
10.4%
-12.3
13.2%
-8.9%
28.1
-14.3%
10.6%
15.8
-27.9%
3.9%
31.2
-4.9%
11.8%
18.9
-13.9%
4.7%
8.5
0.00
6.0
0.00
14.4
0.00
-4.0
0.00
8.2
0.00
4.2
0.00
8.1
0.00
4.2
0.00
24.3
20.7%
9.5%
15.9
130.5%
4.1%
80.2
53.0%
8.8%
-8.3
-0.5%
-6.0%
19.9
-18.0%
7.5%
11.6
-27.2%
2.9%
23.1
-4.9%
8.7%
14.8
-7.4%
3.7%
Aegean Airlines
Financial Statements
Profit & Loss Statement (mn
eu)
Revenues
%change
Cost Of Sales
% change
Gross Profit
Operating expenses (inventory use)
Other operating expenses
Other Operating income
Total Gross Profit
%change
Gross profit margin
2009a
2010a
2011a
2012a
2013a
2014a
2015e
2016e
2017e
622.7
1.8%
505.5
2.3%
117.2
9.4
0.0
9.4
117.3
-1.2%
18.8%
591.0
-5.1%
507.8
0.5%
83.2
0.9
0.0
17.0
99.3
-15.3%
16.8%
668.2
13.1%
589.5
16.1%
78.8
1.0
0.0
10.3
88.0
-11.3%
13.2%
562.9
-15.8%
461.0
-21.8%
101.9
0.9
0.0
5.0
106.0
20.4%
18.8%
698.9
24.2%
507.1
10.0%
191.8
1.7
0.0
10.2
200.4
89.0%
28.7%
911.8
30.5%
659.5
30.1%
252.3
1.0
0.0
9.7
261.0
30.3%
28.6%
948.2
4.0%
703.9
6.7%
244.3
1.1
0.0
13.0
256.1
-1.9%
27.0%
998.7
5.3%
719.9
2.3%
278.8
1.1
0.0
13.0
290.6
13.5%
29.1%
1055.2
5.7%
759.5
5.5%
295.7
1.2
0.0
13.0
307.5
5.8%
29.1%
21.4
3.4%
23.5
4.0%
26.3
3.9%
32.6
5.8%
37.9
5.4%
51.5
5.7%
59.8
6.3%
62.8
6.3%
64.7
6.1%
95.9
-6.2%
15.4%
75.8
-21.0%
12.8%
61.8
-18.5%
9.2%
73.4
18.9%
13.0%
162.4
121.2%
23.2%
209.5
29.0%
23.0%
196.3
-6.3%
20.7%
227.8
16.0%
22.8%
242.8
6.6%
23.0%
64.3
10.3%
74.8
12.7%
79.5
11.9%
70.5
12.5%
72.7
10.4%
90.7
9.9%
109.9
11.6%
110.8
11.1%
111.2
10.5%
EBITDA
%change
EBITDA margin
31.5
-45.1%
5.1%
1.0
-96.9%
0.2%
-17.7
R-2.6%
3.0
R+
0.5%
89.8
2905.4%
12.8%
118.8
32.3%
13.0%
86.4
-27.3%
9.1%
117.1
35.5%
11.7%
131.6
12.5%
12.5%
12.0
19.5
-61.1%
3.1%
13.5
-12.5
-164.1%
-2.1%
13.0
-30.7
145.0%
-4.6%
11.8
-8.8
-71.2%
-1.6%
12.1
77.7
-979.4%
11.1%
12.8
106.0
36.4%
11.6%
13.4
73.0
-31.1%
7.7%
13.3
103.8
42.2%
10.4%
13.1
118.5
14.2%
11.2%
-4.7
1.9
0.1
0.8
-1.0
11.3
-4.8
2.1
1.7
32.5
-18.6%
5.2%
-18.7
-157.5%
-3.2%
-31.2
66.5%
-4.7%
-12.6
-59.6%
-2.2%
75.1
-697.0%
10.7%
94.6
26.0%
10.4%
77.8
-17.8%
8.2%
101.7
30.8%
10.2%
116.8
14.9%
11.1%
29.2%
9.5
0.0
-24.6%
4.6
0.0
12.8%
-4.0
0.0
16.9%
-2.1
0.0
23.1%
17.3
0.0
15.2%
14.4
0.0
27.0%
21.0
0.0
29.0%
29.5
0.0
29.0%
33.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.0
-21.8%
3.7%
-23.3
-201.3%
-3.9%
-27.2
16.5%
-4.1%
-10.5
-61.5%
-1.9%
57.8
-652.6%
8.3%
80.2
38.9%
8.8%
56.8
-29.3%
6.0%
72.2
27.2%
7.2%
83.0
14.9%
7.9%
Administration Expenses
% of Turnover
EBITDAR
%change
EBITDAR margin
Financials
Aegean Airlines
2009a
2010a
2011a
2012a
2013a
2014a
2015e
2016e
2017e
208
66
0
9
5
11
300
184
67
0
6
10
18
286
167
52
0
6
12
10
247
149
47
0
5
4
9
215
222
77
0
11
5
24
339
207
88
0
13
11
35
354
240
109
0
14
11
35
409
281
116
0
15
11
35
457
315
117
0
16
11
35
493
Non-current Assets
111
1
0
28
7
15
162
118
5
0
20
8
10
161
99
27
0
20
13
12
171
89
27
0
20
17
9
182
81
56
27
21
20
16
222
80
57
30
56
19
31
273
78
57
30
56
0
31
252
76
56
30
56
0
31
250
74
56
30
56
0
31
250
Total Assets
462
447
418
397
561
627
661
708
742
S/T debt
L/T Debt Payable
Accounts payable
Taxes Payable
Leasing (payments)
S/T Provisions
Accrued Expenses
Liabilities from Derivatives
Other
Pre - sold revenues
0
0
41
9
5
1
20
7
20
29
133
0
20
41
5
7
1
12
1
20
30
137
20
0
41
0
8
1
15
0
19
33
138
0
4
48
0
8
4
12
2
17
39
134
0
0
54
10
8
7
22
4
65
46
215
0
0
63
15
9
3
23
35
70
66
286
0
0
66
11
9
3
23
35
74
78
300
0
1
75
8
9
3
23
35
83
83
320
0
2
75
7
9
3
23
35
83
87
325
20
0
6
58
0
104
0
0
7
76
0
109
0
0
8
71
0
111
8
0
8
62
0
110
0
0
8
51
39
134
0
0
7
50
35
125
0
0
7
50
35
125
1
0
7
50
35
126
2
0
7
50
35
127
46
145
32
1
0
225
46
145
-1
11
0
201
46
145
-29
7
0
169
46
145
-39
1
0
153
46
145
20
2
0
213
46
73
99
-1
0
216
46
73
119
-1
0
236
46
73
144
-1
0
262
46
73
173
-1
0
291
462
447
418
397
561
627
661
708
742
Current liabilities
L/T Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Provisions for Retirement
Leasing
Other r l/t liabs (from OA)
L/T Liabilities
Share Capital
Share Premium
Retained Earnings
Reserves
Own Shares
Shareholders Equity
Minorities
Aegean Airlines
2009a
23.0
11.8
13.8
3.4
0.0
(3.6)
48.4
(6.2)
4.4
(4.0)
9.3
(1.9)
5.2
43.2
51.3
0.0
(8.0)
17.8
0.0
(2.7)
0.0
(1.4)
55.7
25.8
208.3
2010a
(23.3)
12.9
7.8
(4.0)
0.0
(1.4)
(8.0)
(0.4)
(6.8)
1.3
7.4
(3.2)
12.5
(20.5)
13.1
0.0
(33.6)
0.0
0.0
19.9
0.0
0.0
(10.3)
(24.0)
184.3
2011a
(27.2)
2.4
7.4
(5.0)
0.0
(5.1)
(27.5)
0.4
1.9
(15.1)
(4.7)
(0.0)
(22.0)
(5.4)
5.7
0.0
(11.1)
0.0
0.0
(4.8)
0.0
0.0
(1.6)
(17.5)
166.8
2012a
(10.5)
11.6
2.0
0.0
0.0
(3.5)
(0.4)
7.3
4.8
(5.3)
(11.3)
(0.6)
(29.3)
28.9
1.5
20.0
7.5
0.0
0.0
(16.4)
0.0
0.0
(8.5)
(17.4)
149.4
2013a
57.8
21.6
6.9
10.2
0.0
(3.7)
92.8
5.1
57.5
29.9
22.4
5.6
(4.7)
97.4
42.9
7.3
47.2
0.0
0.0
(23.1)
0.0
0.0
48.7
72.9
222.2
2014a
80.2
11.0
(6.8)
5.2
0.0
1.5
91.1
9.9
56.8
10.7
31.2
2.3
(22.5)
113.6
50.3
2.8
60.5
52.2
(72.0)
(0.6)
0.0
0.0
49.4
(14.8)
207.4
2015e
56.8
13.4
0.0
(4.9)
0.0
18.9
84.2
2.9
15.9
21.7
0.6
1.0
4.5
79.7
10.2
0.0
69.4
36.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.5
239.9
2016e
72.2
13.3
0.0
(3.0)
0.0
0.0
82.4
8.6
13.7
7.0
0.0
0.5
(14.9)
97.3
10.8
1.0
85.5
46.9
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
40.6
280.5
2017e
83.0
13.1
0.0
(1.0)
0.0
0.0
95.1
(0.0)
4.6
0.4
0.0
1.0
(3.2)
98.3
11.3
1.0
86.0
53.9
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.1
314.6
Aegean Airlines
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX
ALPHA FINANCE INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. (Alpha Finance)
Price date/time
Official close @
4 September 2015
Disclosure
none
TP ()
9.5
Rating
Outperform
Forward1 EPS ()
1.12
Source: Alpha Finance | 1: next years EPS used from December onwards
Ratings and target price history
Price chart for Aegean Airlines
DATE
23/03/2011
05/09/2011
24/11/2011
06/04/2012
09/05/2012
30/11/2012
15/10/2013
23/12/2013
15/09/2014
22/09/2014
09/04/2015
04/09/2015
Rating
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
outperform
outperform
outperform
outperform
outperform
outperform
Share Price ()
2.01
1.63
1.57
1.38
1.32
1.70
5.02
5.90
6.82
7.70
7.54
7.54
Price Target ()
2.00
1.90
1.90
1.60
1.27
2.00
6.00
8.50
10.00
9.30
9.50
8.50
Regulatory disclosures
This report has been prepared by Alpha Finance Investment Services S.A. (Alpha Finance), a wholly owned subsidiary of Alpha Bank A.E. Alpha Finance is
regulated by the Hellenic Capital Markets Commission (HCMC). Alpha Finance has in effect management policies to identify and confront potential conflicts
of interest that could arise in the research division of the company and/or its affiliates (Chinese Walls).
Aegean Airlines
Valuation method
We value Aegean airlines through a DCF models to yield a 2015 target price of 8.5. Our valuation methodology is sensitive to oil, passenger traffic
volatility, macroeconomic conditions and all the risks associated with the airline business. For our DCF model for Aegean airlines we have assumed a
variable WACC rate of c.11.8%, a terminal value of 0.5% and a beta of 1.
Risk rating
We rate Aegean as high risk based on the qualitative/quantitative assessment of risk we apply on the company (see definitions of risk below). We
consider the following the biggest investment risks for the shares Airline Industry Related: a) Geopolitical concerns, b) seasonality, c) terrorist events, d)
sensitivity to tourist traffic, e) any obstacles in the merge with Olympic, f) LCCs intensifying domestic competition, g) domestic competition from non air
transportation, h) airport slot availability. Business Model related: a) Fleet restructure execution risk, b) international expansion to increase fuel usage and
maintenance costs, c) progression of load factors in new routes, d) possible overcapacity in international routes, d) EU regulation on greenhouse gas
emissions could pose additional costs in the future and e) climate change could negatively affect tourist traffic to Mediterranean destinations.
Macroeconomic related: a) Foreign exchange risk, b) increasing oil prices, c) the current economic environment in Greece.
Definitions of Fundamental and Risk Ratings and Allocations
RISK RATING
High (H)
Relative to
Horizon2
Coverage3
IB services4
ASE Index
Dec.11
10/50
10.0%
16/50
0.0%
4/50
0.0%
1/50
0.0%
0/50
0.0%
19/50
0.0%
Low (L)
Outperform O/P
FUNDAMENTAL
RATING
Medium (M)
Neutral N
Underperform U/P
Source: Alpha Finance | Data as of 31.12.10 | 1: Total Return Potential (=capital return + dividend yield) | 2: except otherwise stated | 3: Percentage of
companies under coverage within this category as of 31.12.10 | 4: Percentage of companies within this rating category for which investment banking
services were provided over the past 12 months, as of 31.12.10. In several occasions, subject to the analyst's view and/or due to volatility of the shares,
the ratings applied may fall out of the brackets described in the table above.
The Alpha Finance universe consists of 50 companies accounting as of 31.12.10 for 79.9% of total market value
Definition
Brackets
Risk rating
Liquidity
High
Medium
Low
Volatility
High
Medium
Low
Source: Alpha Finance | Data as of 31.12.10 | The quant factors are updated at the end of each calendar quarter
General disclaimer
This report has been prepared by Alpha Finance.
This report by no means provides investment advice as to any financial instruments contained herein. We aim to express our value judgments as to
possible or existing investments, without any existing contractual obligation to our clients. We cannot assume any liability for any investments undertaken
by our clients, since these investments will be a product of their own free will. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources,
which we deem to be reliable. We do not represent that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions
and estimates expressed herein constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of
future results. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives or needs. This report is
published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments.
2015 Alpha Finance. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Alpha
Finance and Alpha Finance accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Aegean Airlines
Alpha Finance Investment Services S.A.
Member of the AE, CSE
5 Merlin street,
106 71 Athens
Greece
T +30-210-367 7400
F +30-210-331 1193
reception@alphafinance.gr
www.alphafinance.gr
Equities Research
Manousos Stathoudakis, Director
Antonis Diapoulis
Angelos Chorafas
Nikos Katsenos
Katia Zahari
research@alphafinance.gr
T +30-210-367 7545
Market Making |
Equities & Derivatives
Andreas Papanayotopoulos,
Director
Stelios Tzaras
International Markets |
Sales & Trading
Andreas Papanayotopoulos,
Director
Giannis Giouremos
George Sarris
Sofia Giannakou