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Flood risk assessment in Europe at 4C

4 C global warming
L. Alfieri, L. Feyen, A. Bianchi, P. Burek, F. Dottori, P. Salamon, J.
J. Thielen and M. Vousdoukas
Results
In this work, ensemble projections of river streamflow based on seven
EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 scenarios are combined with recent advances
in European flood hazard and risk mapping to assess changes in flood
risk in Europe for the current century.

Damage

Population affected

1990

2020

1990

2020

2050

2080

2050

2080

Methods
A number of novelties are presented that address issues pointed out in
previous flood risk assessments at continental scale:
flood hazard maps are derived through a 2D hydraulic model rather
than with simplified approaches;
the frequency of extreme peak discharges is assessed through a peak
over threshold approach;
a new methodology is proposed to bias correct the impact of climate
projections, which does not modify the atmospheric variables nor the
energy balance;
the risk assessment is based on high resolution (100 m) estimates of
flood hazard, exposure and on updated flood vulnerability information.

Country aggregated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) and Population Affected (EAPA) in the baseline scenario
and relative changes in time slice 2020, 2050 and 2080.

Baseline average:
216,000 pp/year

Flood impact vs. return period


Maps of potential damage and population affected are defined for fixed
return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 years.
Inundated areas at 100 m resolution for different return periods are
linked to the corresponding river network at 5 km to improve the
computing efficiency, thus enabling high-resolution impact assessments
at continental scale.

Baseline average:
5.3 B/year

Projected damage and population affected in the EU

Annual relative population affected and relative


damage per country over four time slices.

Conclusions
Potential Population Affected (PPA) and Damage
(PD) for the 100-year return period flood.

Areas of Influence for the region of Paris, T= 100 years.

Model validation
The impact model is firstly validated by forcing it with an observational
meteorological dataset covering the entire Europe from 1990 to 2013.

19981998-2009
Direct damage
[B/year]
Population affected
[pp/year]

Simulated

Reported
EEA (2010)

5.38
220,000

>5
262,000

Annual estimates of flood impact in the EU and comparison with data by DG Environment and EEA.

The impact model reproduces with good accuracy the average socioeconomic impact of large riverine floods in Europe in the past years, and
of selected case studies, such as the Central Europe floods in 2013.

At 4C global warming scenario, climate change is foreseen to be


responsible for 150% increase in the future flood risk in Europe by
2050 and >220% by the end of the century.
When socio-economic scenarios (SSP3, SSP5) are included, the
impact of river floods is projected to:
Present

2050

2080

Population
affected
[pp/year]

216,000

500,000 to
640,000

540,000 to
950,000

Direct damage
[B/year]

5.3 B

20 to 40 B

30 to 100 B

Publications
Alfieri L, Burek P, Feyen L, Forzieri G (2015) Global warming increases the
frequency of river floods in Europe. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:22472260. doi:
10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015
Alfieri L, Feyen L, Salamon P, Burek P and Thielen J. The socio-economic impact
of river floods in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett., (in review)
Alfieri L, Feyen L, Dottori F and Bianchi A. Ensemble flood risk assessment in
Europe under high end climate scenarios. Glob. Environ. Change, (in press),
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.004

European Union,
2015

Contact

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc
The HELIX Project has received funding from the European Union Seventh
Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no 603864.

Lorenzo Alfieri
European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Climate Risk Management Unit
Tel. +39 0332 78 3835
Email: Lorenzo.Alfieri@jrc.ec.europa.eu

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